Result. A bank may move its headquarters from london if britain decides to walk away. Follow me on twitter rishaadtv, include trendingbusiness. Straight to the markets, jitters out there. A few hours from the historic vote in the u. K. People start voting and about four hours. Is there an overriding sense of fear . David caution is a better way to describe it. There is some level of restraint. There is only one game in town. Inflation out of philippines, singapore, but none of that matters if youre looking to arbitrage these exchanges at the moment. It is about the u. K. Referendum. Volumes belowxed, recent averages. Some of these thats have piled up a little bit in favor of the u. K. Remaining in the eu. Generally speaking, the past few days have seen funds go overweight in terms of cash. Have a look at what is happening dollaryen, va doing this. We are closer to the high end of the range. How do you trade this . If the u. K. Votes to remain, how do you trade that . So the yen if you think remain will win. A hefty chunk of options for 1. 2 billion. Poundsterling telling us a different story, 148 is your level. We are above the 200 Day Moving Average. Looks,show you how that channeling my inner picasso. First time above this 200 Day Moving Average since november on pound sterling. Highest level this year easily. If you believe this is the best reflection of momentum in the remain camp, then your perhaps buying the story and that is what you will get. It is not only against the u. S. Dollar. It is up against the euro, safety currencies like poundyen, two week highs for both. I should note that volumes are thin. Any trade tends to exacerbate these moves. Can we flip the chart and show you these measures . A likely snapshot of the turbulence ahead. The last 12 hours has seen investors bracing for impact. Vix at its highest since february. The second one is the vix on the vix, and the third one shows you some caution in japan. Only one game in town. Rishaad we have been talking about it for weeks, that referendum in the u. K. Dominating all the news. We are here with the latest headlines. It is too close to call, isnt it . Juliette yes, it is coming down to the wire. Lets get the latest. You can follow this all day for the latest news. 46. 7 ,is slightly ahead, compared to leave, 44. 7 . Still 13. 5 undecided. If we have a look at some actual , ils online and on the phone survey done for the times has 51 ahead for the remain camp compared to 49 . The daily mail and itv has this day camp slightly ahead. A couple of polls have the leave camp marginally ahead there. We know that the bookies have been saying that the chance of a briggs it is very low, only a of brexit is very low, only a quarter percent. Britons are registered to vote. The previous record for any u. K. Wide election was 2014 for the european parliamentary elections. Both sides have been making impassioned pleas for their case is the 11th hour. The london mayor called the referendum the fight of our lives. David cameron, who is on the stateside, says that brits dont quit. Who is voting leave, has urged britons to take back control. Onhad a televised debate channel four. Alan johnson took part. He is on the stay side. Lets have a listen. Nato is about defending us from external aggression. I am a baby boomer. I am the first generation of men in this country not to be sent off to fight a war on european soil. Live issue when we last had a referendum, because that generation who fought the war were in their 50s. They were determined never to lose peace in europe again, and that is a major reason for the European Union the European Commission president said the vote is final, saying out is out. That has been at guard by the french president. The g7 will issue a joint statement if the u. K. Votes to eggs of the eu, so a countdown ts we await this vote to exi the eu, so i countdown as we await this vote. Mayaad u. K. Leaving the eu undermine efforts by beijing to cozy up to london. China needs britain, britain is seen as a friend with benefits. So many elements at play. Had ahe chinese president state visit to london, they talked about the biz and ties and the golden era of new relations. He says the countries are increasingly interdependent. All the Property Investment by tycoons and chinese insurance these are at risk. The Insurance Companies have spent two point 4 billion investing in London Property in 2015. 2. 4 billion investing in London Property in 2015. There is also that avenue into the european continent and market access. Beenad britain has seen as a major advocate for china. That they worry is are scratching their heads and saying how could this happen with all the effort we have made to cozy up to the u. K. Rishaad it has been a symbiotic relationship. Absolutely. Take a look at these three beijingslosing perception about losing the advocate. It was the first member to support granting full status. Germany is one of the biggest , evoking atners number of different trade tariffs. David cameron was the first eu leader to rapidly push for the inclusion of china. U. K. Led the way to launch the aiib. Rishaad london being a big center for offshore renminbi. That is a key point. Singapore is number three. This is a growing push, so if there is a lot of turmoil in the shortterm, there could be further pressure on the yuan. Rishaad thanks a lot for that. We will be returning to the u. K. Referendum throughout the show. We do value your opinion. Tweet is your thoughts at rishaadtv, include trendingbusiness. Right, lets move to some other stories. Where having a look at some of them. Motors hasoreas kia been ranked best and new Vehicle Quality, the first time in 27 years that a nonpremium automaker has scored the top spot in the study. Reported peroblems 100 vehicles. Hyundai came in third. Consumer study a closely to make purchase decisions. According to the industry, new Vehicle Quality improved from 2015, the biggest improvement in seven years. Elon musk said that teslas aner to buy solarcity was nobrainer, but investors arent convinced. Tesla closed down more than 10 . Gained about 3 . Will betric carmaker between 26. 50 and 28. 50 per share. Investors say the price is too low. The deal has a less than 40 chance of happening. Elon musk owns the largest they can both tesla and solarcity. Volkswagens chief executive has apologized again for the emissions scandal. Agm. De the comments at the told shareholders the whole company is working together to manage the fallout. Is facing the greatest challenge and its history with the diesel scandal. We have disappointed stockholders and lost the trust, lost customers, business partners, and the public. The supervisory board, the management, and staff are all working to overcome this crisis. The first was Shareholder Meeting since the scandal came to light in september. Rishaad the head of Japan Stock Exchange with a brexit warning as well. We will look at the knock on effect in the asiapacific. Referendum aside, discussing what the other longterm risks are to asia markets. Thats right here on trending business. Lindsay traders in asia will be at their desks well before dawn as the u. K. Decides its future. Currency traders in asia will be at their desk well before dawn is the u. K. Decides its future. Which way is it going to go in your view . It is difficult to say. Aremakers on the markets not particularly clear in terms of the outcome. Is generatingoing a lot of uncertainty in terms of how this plays out, the implications for markets, what that means for volatility. People are not putting forward conviction ideas, so there are very thin markets with volatility. In the near term, unless we get a very clear signal, a decision one way or the other it is binary. If the u. K. Decides to remain, it is all systems go and risk is put back on again. If there is the uncertainty of an actual brexit, then you look at risk markets as being vulnerable and look at the safe havens again rishaad . Th. Rishaad we just heard the tokyo Stock Exchange had saying the yen will go to 100 if we have a brexit. If you look at the safe havens from a currency perspective, it hasnt necessarily been the dollar. ,t has been the yen, the euro and the swiss franc. If there is a brexit vote, that will undermine some implications for the eurozone, so would you want to go back into the euro as the preferred safe haven of choice . No. The yen and the swiss franc will have a field day here. Rishaad we had a currency strategist saying sterling 102nst swiss franc goes to and six months if there is a remain. That was his view. Lets get away from talking about this referendum. I know it is difficult. That is the only game in town. ,snt the yen counterintuitive they just seemingly cant get it going and get their targets in place, that it is a haven. The yen strengthens as a consequence. It is a haven for a simple reason. When you look at havens in general, they tend to be the great recipients of capital flows. U. S. Investors tend to have the Largest Equity Holdings overseas globally. When there is uncertainty and volatility, they bring the money home. The japanese are the largest fixed income holders overseas. Safe havens are all about where does the capital go in times of uncertainty and stress. When there is volatility and uncertainty, japanese investors say i done on to be positioned in that particular market in that particular region. I am bringing the cash home. Rishaad that used to be the carry trade before . It is also an uncertainty and volatility trade. People get spooked and bring their money home. This, in the market know so they try and get ahead of the game in terms of if this is going to be a good environment. Even if there is a remain vote in the u. K. , is there further upside to the yen . It is unlikely. Has ak the yen probably finite move to the upside if there is a move back into risk. When you think about how the yen has tended to trade historically, relative interest the basis of Risk Appetite, and if there is a stronger Risk Appetite, questions in terms of the fed and what they will be doing, then stronger Risk Appetite should mean you sell the yen against other currencies. Rishaad we heard what janet yellen said. An advocate of a strong u. S. Economy, not talking about whether rather than when there will be an Interest Rate hike. Or whether the economy improves. The point is that when you saw the statement she was making, what did you see behind it . What was the undercurrent . The fed isgs, looking at the labor market and inflation. Inflation has picked up. The fed have ignore that for now. Is idea being that inflation largely driven by commodity price rebounds. Has been vocal in arguing that its broad measure of the labor market has been falling for a number of months. It really doesnt look as if the fed are in any position to move in the near term, so the game has changed, focused on inflation, focused on improvement in the economy. 30 againstes russia. Can wales go all the way . Of course we can. My only conviction trade at the moment. Rishaad against rationality entirely be, but never mind. Thank you very much. Chinasoming up, spending to hit the governments growth target. We will look at that and more win trending business returns. Rishaad you are back with trending business. I am rishaad salamat. China stepping up stimulus by stealth, saying this will strengthen the hand of the state as policy makers say they want a bigger role for the market. Tom mackenzie has more on this. What kind of stimulus are we talking about here . So ubs and j. P. Morgan are calling this off budget stimulus , and it is focused on some of the policy banks in china that final funding towards governmentbacked projects and local governments. Are thee of these steps following, bond issues come a big uptick in local Government Bond issuance to fund construction. Inhave seen an uptick government spending, taking money from rising land sales as and theyre rise, using that money to Fund Infrastructure projects. And they are getting more involved in privatepublic partnerships, teaming up with private companies. Ubs and j. P. Morgan are saying that if you take these off budgets stimulus measures into account, chinas deficit, rather than being targeted at 3 , is more likely 10 of gdp. That is more likely the clear deficit according to ubs and j. P. Morgan. They are saying it was into question the president s commitment to allow greater market forces. They say these measures tight economy closer to the state. What is the overall debt pile looking like . Well, we have seen and heard a lot about the concerns over the corporate debt pile, 165 debt to gdp. We are seeing defaults, rising numbers of nonperforming loans in the corporate sector, and that is one reason why the corporate sector is staying on the sidelines and not expanding while the local governments are having to step in. The overall total debt pile officially in china is around 245 debt to gdp, but ubs says that if you take these off for budgetall measures into account, its more like 280 . Rishaad quite something. How does this play out when it comes to the governments reform agenda . What these economists are saying is that these measures are being taken to stimulate in the shortterm the local economy, and that is what the government and officials seem to think is needed to hit the 6. 5 growth target that china set itself this year. Make it more do is difficult to implement the reform agenda. Cutting back on overcapacity, productivity increases that many say need to take place, also lowering the barrier into services sector, pressure from the European Union and u. S. On china to open up some sectors here, so the concerns are that some of those reforms will be put on the back table and will be difficult to unwind to some of the stimulus. Rishaad we are heading to the break. At our toplook stories. Asiapacific stocks edging higher in light training before the u. K. Votes to decide on its relationship with the European Union. To the highestng level so far this year amid optimism that brexit will fail. The four latest polls suggested is too close to call. Will beroblem on friday given that the polls are so close to call, if there is a brexit vote, and i dont rule it out, markets will respond in a very bad way. The pound will plummet. The worry would be that people will start to run to the bank. Kia numberuth korea one in jd powers annual survey of new Vehicle Quality. Ae first time in 27 years nonautomaker has taken the top spot. Per 100ems reported vehicles in the first 90 days of ownership, one fewer than porsche. Shopping in south america, chinas State Grid Corporation is in talks to buy a stake in brazils energy sector. The stake could be valued at 1. 5 billion dollars, not including premiums there. And puttingisk money on risk, a positive open in hong kong. Shanghai is red. Move towards, well, i guess, well, factoring in a remain vote in the u. K. , but it is light trading. David it is light trading. Thats the most important thing to know ahead of polls opening in the u. K. , tenday,e well below 30 day, and all the way five months back. Onare seeing a lot of money the sidelines right now. That has been the recent trend so far this week, macro funds have taken money out and left it on the side, prepared to deploy once we get those results. Verging theo , one in four that the u. K. Votes to leave the eu. Being said, we are up slightly on the overall benchmark. Otherou want to watch currency markets, dollaryen on sessionup, close to its high, pound sterling is your big indicator today. We are looking at 148. 12. It is trading above its 200 Day Moving Average since november 2015. Thats a very rough sketch of what that is and how that looks at the moment. We are trading at these levels for pound sterling. On the bloomberg, there is a comprehensive look at how the pound is trading, not just against the dollar, there we go, bottom of your screen, pound index go. It measures the sterling against a basket of major currencies. That one is also on the way out. Dollaryen, as i mentioned, pushing towards one hope five 105. If you have taken a position in the options market, there are a fair amount of options expiring today, some including a strike of 104. That will be painful depending on which position you have taken. Let me wrap things up with a at yields, on the way out. U. S. 10 years on the way out. , not so muchear underwater, 14 basis points below zero. Again, there is only one game in town. Of the tokyohead Stock Exchange has joined the debate, voicing his concerns about the effect on the yen. He sang the currency could rise to 100 if britain chooses to leave the eu. Lets bring in our asian stocks reporter. Why is the Stock Exchange worried here . The stockd of exchange was answering a question from a reporter what would happen if written would leave the eu if written would leave the eu. Weeks orpast couple of so, we have seen volume shrink substantially. A lot of the money is on the sidelines. The decision, whether they vote remain or leave, we will probably see volume surge. He wanted to reassure the market that they are monitoring what is going on and making sure that systems are in place and will be able to handle the increase in volumes tomorrow. Rishaad what do analysts think of brexit onect japan and the japanese economy . Even the head of the Stock Exchange was talking about the yen and how if there is a brexit, it could go to 100 per dollar. Varioushave analysts saying that because of the yen safe haven protection, it could surge to 90 until the end of the year, the topix is the most susceptible to damage. Couldsaying the topix fall 12 in two weeks or so. On the flipside, other analysts are saying that the topix is already down 7 , a lot of concerns have been priced in. Violations are cheap and it is a good time to pick up stocks. A lot of the exporters as well because the yen has been. Hurt. It is difficult to say what to do at the moment. Rishaad great stuff. The outcome of this boat is being seen as too close to call. This of vote is being seen as too close to call. The market has not been priced in. It will be chaotic here it in all likelihood, the government would resign, the Prime Minister would resign. This would be chaos. The government has said that we cant go to brexit. They have done this care mongering, but have not told anybody what they would do if there is a vote for brexit. They really do have their fingers crossed and hoping it does not happen, but we will watch carefully tomorrow night. Hopefully it wont, but it could. Ok. It is betty here. Have nothe officials said what they will do or how they will handle this, so what do you think on the side of the central bank, the bank of england, would you think is happening on the inside right now . How are they preparing for this . I said to my friends in london that you should have people parked outside the nine members houses, because by 6 00 in the morning, we will know the outcome of the vote. If the vote is for brexit, there will be an emergency meeting. A you think about it, it is tough call. On the one hand, they should be raising rates to protect the currency and worry about inflation, but on the other, they should be cutting rates because of the output problem, so they will have a dilemma. I assume they were treated like they did in 2008. They havent got much ability to protect and defend the pound, and they have not told us what they would do. We have no ideas what plans the u. K. Treasury has. Given that we dont know, this is a problem for the markets. I assume they will have a dilemma and take it as a negative shock. The best indicator is the rgency meeting after the 9 11, but i think this is completely New Territory and the chances are we will have a political crisis as well as an economic one. Just because we dont know, doesnt mean they dont have a plan. , thats true, but the markets have no idea what they would do. If they do have a plan, they wep they will act quickly hope they will act quickly. Be. Spect there will not in 2008, there was a big negative shock, Central Banks could cut rates immediately from 500 basis points to zero. They are not in a position to do that. Potential global shock that would impact the rest of europe, impact the u. S. , not least in europe because it might well be the harbinger of the breakup of the rest of the eu. So you really dont want that to happen. The Downside Risks look to awful. Speaking to was early about why a brexit vote would be a mistake. Stanley saying it could move its European Headquarters from london if the u. K. Votes to leave the eu. Said a brexit would affect londons position as a Financial Hub and cost the city positions as services should to the continent. Had plannedthe bank in case of a brexit. We have contingency plans. We will talk with our regulators and look at having a European Headquarters somewhere in europe that will be acceptable to Morgan Stanley and our regulators in terms of where would that be . It would possibly be dubliner frankfurt. Rishaad you can keep uptodate with the latest on our website, bloomberg. Com asia. , j. P. Morgan management, how a leave vote would affect asiapacific markets and the regions trade with the united kingdom. News acrosse latest the world. America, stateth Grid Corporation in talks to buy energy a brazil engineering merck. 23. 6 percent stake divide at 1. 5 billion dollars, and that does not include premiums. Goldman sachs cutting 98 jobs in new york, taking the number of dismissals to 350. Goldman sachs is seeking to whether a trading slump, cutting dozens of senior positions across several divisions. Tokyo, forecasting its first loss in eight years, share price headed south, mitsubishi saying the fuel consumption scandal wont carry over to the next year and is not planning to revise capital spending. The transport ministry has confirmed that there are no more faulty figures, so you can trust us when we say there are no more improper data. However, i understand we have a long way to go to gain the trust of our customers and investors. And improve forward our corporate culture, where anyone can speak up if there is wrongdoing, and we must stop people from staying in the same role for a long time. Powered by over 2600 journalists and 150 bureaus around the world, this is bloomberg news. Less than five hours away from the polls opening in the eu referendum. Victory byest says a the leave campaign would damage British Trade with asia in the shortterm. I think we are getting a bit weary of this topic, but it is front and center, isnt it . It has been going on for a long time, but you are spot on. We are asked about it on a regular basis. Rishaad it is quite extraordinary. Up to three weeks ago, people were sanguine about this. Suddenly this has kick to life with the debate creating more heat rather than light. Yes, i think so. It is one of these rare instances where the closer we get to the referendum, the more uncertainty that has developed. We have seen the remain campaign laying out their thoughts in terms of the economic impact. We has seen the leave Campaign Take a focused approach. The two together have increased uncertainty. Questionshat sort of are they asking . How would a leave vote affect relations with asia . How would asia be impacted by this . There are a number of ways. , riske seen the risk on off trade has its implications in asia and on a global basis, areequally looking forward Asian Countries going to struggle from an export perspective because of the uks decision . Probably not. Rishaad if we get a leave vote, the pound plummets, therefore it becomes more expensive to buy goods in sterling terms, putting some of these countries at a disadvantage. The percentage of exports from asia heading to the u. K. Is relatively small, 1 , so on an isolated basis it is not a big issue. The other way, the situation is quite interesting. Of companies in the u. K. Manufacturing and sterling and selling globally, and that becomes quite an opportunity for them. Anhaad that would be advantage, but a huge disadvantage here as well, not having these trade deals in place signed by the eu. Absolute a. You have seen over the last few years, u. K. Government, u. K. Business leaders, making a concerted effort to strengthen relationships with asia and china in particular. All of these arrangements at the moment are signed with the u. K. Some. K. Is a population of 65 million, but 500 million in europe, a very different negotiating starting point. Rishaad and a lot more clout. People will be getting up in the u. K. Tomorrow morning, friday take manynd it would years before this all unravels, even if there is a leave vote. It is a negotiation process. It is. That is where a lot of this uncertainty comes from. Do we invoke article 50 on friday morning, and therefore the twoyear negotiating time starts . Rishaad the lisbon treaty. Absolutely. Or is there a more considered approach with negotiations taking place before we start that twoyear countdown . It will not happen instantly. Existing trade agreements will exist for at least two years, and potentially much longer. Probably carryl on talking about this if there is a brexit. , the next event risk is the australian election, the fed, which will be right there as well, looking more and more unlikely that they will be doing anything with Monetary Policy this year. Elections, an italian referendum on monday, ill on a slightly different matter, so these things will keep coming to us. Ultimately europe has been a this he place for noise since its inception. 28 Different Countries create an awful lot of noise all the time. And our Portfolio Managers hope is that once brexit moves away, we can see investors refocusing on fundamentals, which are strong in europe. Rishaad do you take a position when it comes to trading strategies . Andver the last few weeks months, we are looking at various outcomes, scenarios, and we have ay morning, plan in place depending on the outcome. We will be making changes to portfolios. Are goingither way we to talk about massive items of trade on friday, is that what you are saying effectively . Fx, equity, fixed income . We have seen a lot of investors positioning one way or the other into this. Offave taken a lot of risk the table with the uncertainty that surrounds the outcome. We will see that risk put back on if there is a remain vote. If we see a leave vote, the next play is uncertain. Rishaad thank you very much indeed for joining us. Nicholas wilcox from j. P. Morgan asset management. Elections andw australia. The race between the two parties there expected down to the wire. Rishaad lets have a look at some stories making headlines. A former executive from Deutsche Bank suing for wrongful miion claim 17 filed with hong kongs labor tribunal. Hewants a declaration that was in reckless or negligent on deals he made. The bank rejects the claim and will defend it. Outgoing reserve bank of india governor Raghuram Rajan says state owned banks are to blame for the slowdown in credit growth, not Interest Rates. s departure has spurred concerns that his indias bad loans are at a 15 year high. Its firsts held Shareholder Meeting since the announcement it is buying control of sharp for 3. 5 billion. The event concluded with a shares not to retire until they reach a certain value. Three of australias biggest banks face penalties if they lose suits which claimed they were involved in rate raking. Igging. R manipulatingsed of the bank swap rate, a charge they denied. The payouts would be comparatively small next to the banks profits. The hearings resume in melbourne next week. Brenton counts down to that referendum, there is another big vote on the horizon nine days away, australia heading to the ballot box. Sydney. En is in we are told it is a tight race, but is it really . Paul yes, thats a good point. The polls tell a part of the story. This is the most recent news poll that shows that the Opposition Labor Party has been closing in on the coalition steadily ever since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. It is now looking 5050 on the two party preferred, which would lead you to believe it is a tight race. If you look at the house of representatives, where this election will be decided. The coalition has 90 seats. The Opposition Labor Party has 55, so the labor party would need to win 21 seats to oust the government. Thoseou look at it in terms, that is a big ask. Most strategists think they could win 1213, but they would not get close enough. Then you have to consider the governing coalition may pick up seats as well, fairfax and queens land, that may be the case. So it is very likely the government will be returned despite the look of those close polls, although they would be returned with a reduced majority. Rishaad taking economic reform to this election . I think both parties would like to persuade voters that they are, but the reality is somewhat different. If we look to the budget that was released in may, the centerpiece was a tax cut for companies gradually being introduced over the coming 10 years, but more vigorous gotosals to raise the gst floated around and then quickly killed off once the government realized that would be electoral death. Biggeror party admit deficits over the coming years, and you can imagine the government taking a stick to them over that. Major economic reform they are proposing is to curb this tax break, which is known as negative gearing, giving Property Investors a tax break for making a loss on their investments. The labor party would like to see that curbed. That is about as radical as economic reform gets. Not proposing any medicine too harsh, as it is political suicide. Rishaad paul allen in sydney. Next, how a decision to leave the eu could affect the uks relationship with china. From our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Charlie we begin this evening with a look at Hillary Clintons speech in columbus, ohio. It was her first Economic Policy speech of the season. Her remarks criticized the Business Record and economic nominees of present of donald trump. Clinton employed his own quotes to destroy his economic ideas and worn of the potential to throw the country into recession. Hillary clinton liberals and