Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150406

Them. Brendan Benjamin Netanyahu says it will lead to a Nuclear Armed middle east. Investors are bracing for a market to drop at the open after fridays jobs report. Employers added 126,000 workers in march less than the most pessimistic free throws in Bloomberg Survey of economists. An outside review is slamming Rolling Stones story about a gang rape at the university of virginia. It is calling the story a failure that failed to follow basic journalistic practice. It unraveled and Rolling Stone retracted it. The review said it may have spread the idea many women invent rape allegations. The editors and author will not be fired. In california Governor Brown is defending his order for mandatory water cutbacks. The drought is in its fourth year and brown has ordered towns and cities to reduce consumption by 25 . He tells abc news it is not just a california problem. Governor brown the weather that is in california will show up am other parts of the world. I can tell you from california the Climate Change is not hoax. We are dealing with and it is serious. Brendan browns order doesnt apply to farmers who use 80 of the supply. He said they are not frivolously using it on the lawns or taking lawn showers. The pay gap is narrowing on wall street. The difference between what banco c. E. O. s and staff make has gotten a lot smaller since the financial crisis. Last year they made 124 times as much and that is down from 273 times in 2006. Tom we will end in sports how many were blown out of brackets saturday. Steve roach did. I did. Wisconsin is taking on duke tonight for the ncaa mens basketball game. The badgers shocked unbeaten kentucky. They shocked me. Along with everybody else in the bloomberg bracket. In is the first time wisconsin has played in the finals since 1941. Duke will be seeking its fifth national title. The wall street journal said today it is duke as obligation to be in the finals like every other year. Brendan i thought it was an amazing game. Frank kaminsky of wisconsin is a big guy who can move quickly and i read a really interesting essay he wrote a year ago explaining why he returned to wisconsin. He realized even though he tired of being poor there is no guarantee of what will happen when you get in the nba but in is a guarantee get to play in front of crowds with that type of energy at that level if he stayed in wisconsin and he got what he spent a year working for. Tom there it is. Great upset to say the least. I will get to a data check. This is important for those of you who stepped out on friday jobs report down 15, yields came in with a vengeance, 184 184 10year. Nymex crude elevated. On to the next screen. 14 boy 67 that v. I. X. Will change and twoyear yield is 0. 49. Not down to record lows but there it is ever lower twoyear fed influenced yield. Yen well under 120 and gold up 16. Lets catch up on the jobs report. Back to world war ii nonfarm payroll with a 50year trend. I have extrapolated from 2000 and it is a stunning chart. Im not saying it is an accurate chart but does it tell a picture of america. Brendan so many indicators change around 2000. Things changed in 2000 but we didnt notice because there was a real estate bubble that kept us from understanding what happened. To understand it is necessary in a lot of indicators to look past the crash. Tom you go past the crash which is about right here and come back here and you have this nice recovery but nothing to gets back to a sense of where we were going back a good half a century. Lets get someone with some Historical Perspective on this to tie it into economics, finance and investment. Friday we enjoyed a tepid job report. Yield surge and bond prices higher. Equities are light signaling a fed caught between a belief and market reality. Steven roach at Yale University and always been worried about bubbles that can develop out of the fed. Steve lets start with first of all you are a die hard wisconsin fan. How exciting is this tonight . Steve it is unprecedent eded since 1941 for badger nation. It even precedes the trend break you show in 2000. It goes 74 years. It is possibly older than you, tom. Tom it is wise guy. Back to the terminal, the caution that you have shown about the American Economic experiment goes back to a vitality that creates jobs. It is Getting Better for a lot of america. Why is so much else of america struggling . Stephen im in the Larry Summerscular stagnation camp. We have tried to squeeze too much juice out of the lemon. We opted for Financial Engineering through bubbles and that provides temporary gratification but ultimately comes back to bite you with Balance Sheet recessions. We are in one now. Tom do you just presume when we finally start to raise rates we have great instability . Stephen we will definitely have difficulty in dealing with another piece of bubble induced Economic Activity as we are doing right now. The debt overhang is there and inability of the economy to generate sustained job growth and income generation through normal economic fundamentals remains a profound problem for the u. S. Economy. Brendan four years ago a book was written about secular stagnation that said there are a couple of things to cause group. Bring kids in from the farm and educate them and put well in the workforce and growth is essentially over. Do you subscribe it that part of secular stagnation . Do we need to look for emerging economies for growth . Stephen we have an excess of supply over demand and we have been on the demand side of the equation for the United States for a long time. The emerging economies especially my favorite one china have been on the supply side producers. So the world needs to rebalance and realign and get more demand out of the producers and less demand out of the excess consumers like the United States. We need to live within our means and countries like china need to step up and stimulate internal private consumption. They have just begun. Brendan often you look at germany that export too much or china that doesnt sell to itself. Is there anything we can do domestically to help that in the u. S. . Stephen we need to wean ourselves from the temptation to juice up our asset markets to derive temporary satisfaction from bubble induced economic growth. Ben bernanke when he is in there give and take with summers he says we can opt to create financial bubbles from time to time if we can to the lower real Interest Rates below the negative 2 level. That is an explicit admission of what has gone wrong with monday Monetary Policy. He admits he tried to use pwublts to stimulate growth. Tom but in defense of those in Public Service this white line is moving up because of those q. E. Policies, those monetary policiless. If we had a steve roach policy there white line wouldnt move up . Stephen if you have good eyes im not sure i do but the slope is still below. The gap is still opening up. That is the problem with secular stagnation. That red area gets larger and larger as we forgo more and more of or longterm potential by, well brendan you are making my head explode. Tom there is the rope slope thats not as good as this. Stephen thats right. Brendan it is not just economists who need to skwraufradjust assumptions, it is voters, people savingor retirement. We have a system built on this of postwar growth. Stephen we promised too much and delivered poorly on those promises. Every time we get into a growth problem, we seem to go for more juice from asset markets to address the problem and thats not the way to do it. Tom allen kruger was sitting here friday believes we are also into two of americas where one is doing well and another group where it is not happening. Do we have a fed that needs to do their daytoday work looking at two americas or can they assume a great Macro Economy . Stephen the fed has blunt instruments. They have a hard time directing a piece of that stimulus to one part and a piece to the other part. What they have been doing with q. E. Is they have been providing a lot of wealth for wealthy people and that doesnt really address the middle class problems that i know somebody like all len kruger is so concerned about. Tom we have a lot of emails on that new Infrastructure Bank in china. We will address that with dr. Roach. Our twitter question of the day, will the jobs report delay the feds rate rise . We are thrilled you are with always. This is bloomberg surveillance in a beautiful new york. Tom good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to the top medicine lines. Brendan we have the Iran Nuclear Deal president obama calling a once in a lifetime opportunity telling New York Times it doesnt mean the u. S. Is giving up military spear superiority or protection of israel. But Benjamin Netanyahu says it will lead to a Nuclear Armed middle east. Rolling stones story is being blasted. It was called a failure that didnt follow basic journalism paralysis. Practices. Right now new details about the campus massacre in kenya. One of the gunmen is being identified as the son of a government official. He and three others were killed by security forces. Militants claimed responsibility. The net neutral ityity guidelines could be in the federal register preventing internet providers from speeding up, slowing down or blocking content. Lawyers for Aaron Hernandez will present their case today. The former nfl star is accused of arranging a Fatal Shooting two years ago. 131 people testified for the prosecution since it opened in january. The defense says it will call all of its witnesses today. The st. Louis cardinals enjoy the best record in baseball, 10 shutting out the cubs in wrigley. Major League Baseball official opening day is today. 28 teams will be in action including toms red sox. Those are the top headlines. Tom they will. There is way too much annism about the red sox. I think that the manager change should have been made and they should have picked john kelvin. Brendan like a button you can push just below toms ear and he starts talking. Tom it is april and everybody is beyond brendan the snow is melting, rosy fingered dawn appears and once again we believe the red sox can take it all. Stephen what if the red sox and conduction lose. Tom we have a triple tease this morning. Stephen roach on china must listen and we will address the asia Infrastructure Bank. Then german exports brendan with a smart chart on that later in the hour. Then we begin to tear apart jerry browns endorsement of real action about the drought in california. I thought New York Times article this weekend was superb. Looking for a smart hour. Then another hour this morning. Brendan chinas 5 years old. The worlds fifth largest smartphone vendor and it is the largest largest. It is projected to have revenue around 16 billion 4 millionbillion more than last year. Stephen roach you look at the world from several different positions and you just returned from china. Is in a company that did everything right or are we looking at a different environment for startups in china . Stephen china is a huge place so it is now just xiaomi and nobody else. There is plenty of room for apple and other smartphones. There is huge demand and what can i say . Plenty of opportunity. Brendan i looked at some research by Bloomberg Intelligence on this and what they are looking at is not just the chinese market. I think i at least was mistakeningly that it was very successful in china beating out everybody else and that accounted for its size but it sis investing in r d in india to understand that market and sell cheap smartphones. We think 100 phones and they are thinking 40, 20 smartphones. Tom they are not even in a market we perceive. They are in a separate world. You were in china a few weeks ago. Is still there that separate pwhraof of tppding and manufacturing of a third world we cannot address . Stephen i think that is true. Tom did is back to your labor ash arbitrage. Stephen there is one that the market is domestic china and russia and emerging asia. The u. S. Is certainly out there at some point in time for them to try to penetrate. But they have got a lot to do in the developing world first. Brendan to your point about developing world with smartphone makers the one from spain has a lot of wireless providers in latin america doing things we cannot think of in the u. S. One thing is pioneering smartphones that run the mazilla operating system but the Network Demand that apple draws on is so great that it is too expensive to run there. So we have a luxury here that prevents us from innovating for latin mark. Tom because the product is so cheap . Brendan they are so cheap and our networks are so good. Tom coming up in the next hour folks, we will have the ramifications of the job report and we will talk about the bullish tone. We are in search of tony dwyer our next hour. Tom good morning, everyone. Washington, d. C. Girding for what is it, april 14 brendan, the various vote on . Brendan april 14 is an important date for me, too. Tom april 14 as we look at the beautiful sunrise. Time for the morning must read. Richard haas been on the show many times with the council on Foreign Relations it seeks regional prime say even a Nuclear Agreement that is signed will tphotnot affect this rattle and may make tit worse. Iran could emerge with its reputation enhanced in a longterm option to build Nuclear Weapons intact. That is one side of the debate. Steve roach we are drowning in complexity over the middle east. How do we make it simple . Stephen pretty hard to do. I read tom friedans interview with obama on the way in this morning and the president tries to make the point that this sis an opportunity that we have to seize and it is hard to argue with that. Tom the ambassador agrees with that. Stephen we have to deal with this. We cant always be defending one position and not allowing for the possibility that we do have to take some risks as the worlds superpower and the president s point on that is a powerful point. Brendan i also think there is something that bob corker of tennessee the republic and the president know to be true and neither can say which is we dont have the power to work our will in the world the way we used to. We cant look at iran and make iran do anything. This is the hardest thing to do in american politics is accommodate the rise of other powers when away dont have any when we dont have any choice but to let them grow. Tom i know you have studied economics the game theory of the degrees of freedom and number of players within an iran, what is it p5 plus 1. In are a lot of there are a lot of players and that makes it harder for the president to speak to congress and the congress to speak to the president. Stephen congress is sort of skirting the edges of what is appropriate in weighing in on the president s role to formulate Foreign Policy before it really cuts a deal. And i think the president alluded to that and had alluded to that for some time. Tom steve roach will us. We will get to china. Our twitter question of the day moves on to the challenge that the fed has with the job support delay. Markets moving friday. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning everyone. Dow futures negative. Gold up a solid 17 as we catch up with thursday of last week. Lets catch up with the top headlines with brendan. Brendan now this a he has the framework after agreement president obama has to sell it. He tells New York Times it is opportunity of a lifetime to make sure iran doesnt get Nuclear Weapons. He says the deal doesnt mean the u. S. Would fail to protect israel. The chairman of the senate Foreign Relations Committee Says Congress Needs to play a role. I want to see a negotiated agreement. I know a lot of water has to go under the bridge the next 90 days and it is very important that congress is in the middle of this and understanding, teasing out, asking those important questions. Brendan president obama praised senator corker as somebody who is sincerely concerned about iran but the president says he insists on preserving his right to enter into deals with foreign powers without congressional approval. Futures indicate u. S. Stocks will be lower at the open after the disappointing jobs report with just 126,000 workers in march the fewest in more than a year. There is concern a weaker economy may lead to a drop in corporate profits. Closing arguments set it the Boston Marathon bombing trial. The Defense Attorneys say he was in the attack but he was the pawn of his brother who died in a shootout with police. The jury is expected to find him guilty and they will have to died whether gets the death penalty. With yemen rebels are ready it resume talks to some the crisis but they want the saudi group to under air strikes. Rebel leaders wont accept the president returning to power. Disney is betting on americas love for Fantasy Sports. The party of espn is investing 250 million in the online Fantasy Sports business draft king. That values it at 900 million. It is promising to spend more than a half million advertising on espn in the coming years. John oliver hits ed snowden with tough questions. Here sis the post taking snowden to task about the risks of dumping classified data in the hands of journalists. We have to accept some mistakes will be made. In is a fundamental concept of liberty. But you have to own that. You are giving documents with information you know could be harm harmful which could get out there. Yes. If people act in bad faith. You are talking about incompetence. We are. But you will never be completely free from risk if you are free. Brendan snowden is living in russia where he is protected from the reach of u. S. Authorities. I thought it was going to see him grilled again and im embarrassed it took john oliver. Tom you are the pro here around im the hack. Why isnt charlie rose doing there interview . Brendan that is a good question. Oliver went to russia and these pictures of Edward Snowden what he tended to do is appear to conferences over video link but they are very enthusiastic and friendly audiences and he is wrestling with tough questions and he did trust glen greenwauld with the entirety of his leak. Tom if he shows up at dulles or j. J. F. K. He is arrested . Brendan yes. And this is important for the u. S. That other countries even brazil, are reluctant to grant him a visa for fear of angering the u. S. Tom you want to get a Cocktail Party going mention Edward Snowden. Brendan there are no easy answers about that and it is something very difficult to talk about. Tom lets move on to china. We have a huge email response to dr. Roachs appearance. Call it a chill war, not a cold war. Politics from another time and place but a distance as the u. S. Grapples with a more assertive china. Consider the aiib Obama Administration back pedestrian many, on the Asian Infrastructure investment bank. In 2020 will america be left out in the chill . Steve, we have a huge response to your appearance on this asia Infrastructure Investment bank. Is it equivalent to the i. M. F. . Is it an i. M. F. Killer . Stephen stephen not at this point but asia has massive needs to build its infrastructure. The Asian Development bank puts that at 8 trillion. And the world bank and i. M. F. The institutions that we sponsor are not filling the void. So, china has a massive amount of Foreign Exchange reserves and savings and desire to restore its role as a leader in asia. We are resisting i. M. F. Reform that would give china a greater role and now resisting their desire to lead a new institution. We cant have it both. They have to be able to provide the capital leadership and we are holding them back who are we to say they cant do it this way . Tom if we assume secretary kerry gets some sleep after what hes done in switzerland what would be the prescription for him to get a better relationship with china particularly or aiib . Stephen push through the i. M. F. Reform that would give china greater say in leading traditional institutions. Brendan we are talking as if the executive branch can make these decisions on its own. The problem is Congress Wont approve it. It goes back to the same problem we have with the iran negotiations much the American Public has a hard time recognizing that we have to let anything happen. Stephen the administration complains that it is congresss problem and complained with it on the iranian deal. We need leadership from the administration to drive a hard bargain through the congress and get them to bring teasehese reform measures to vote now. Brendan when should this happen with the i. M. F. And warmedorld bank . Stephen we have squandered the opportunity with i. M. F. Reform the last three years. There has been building a long time. As long as aware stymied in getting these through congress then a nation like china, a rising nation with a lot of assets and ambition to restore its role will cut its own deal. Tom how do uyou respond with the quadratic nature of this . Stephen it is iron, it is coal. It is oil. China, the worlds most voracious appetite for commodities is moving to a commodity like growth trajectory focusing more on services than industrial led manufacturing. There is part of its goal it remake its economy to more of a consumer services. Tom so h and r black in beijing will substitute in australia . Stephen i wouldnt go that far but china has it wean itself from manufacturing led investment. Tom do you observe that in your visit to china that they are successful in shifting . Stephen the Services Share in the chinese economy hit 48 last year, the target is 47 this year. But the 48 is too small. It needs to be 60 to 65 . So they are in the early stages of making the services led transition. Brendan Stephen Roach has been telling the world it needs to be rebalanced. Greece, germany and exports. Germanys rebalancing problem. We will explain how tease these are connected. We are streaming on your tablet. Form and probably on a xiaomi device at bloomberg. Com. Tom lets get to the single best chart. Brendan on at least one measure europe is less important to germany. That is the subject of our single best chart. A man thought to be german is not. He is danish. We are looking at the share of germanys exports that goes to other euro area countries. There is a long decline and a sharp dip since the euro crisis. We are looking at two different trends which all of them mean germany is less dependent on europe for trade. Steven roach, you are an advocate of rebalancing. Germany should be rebalancing toward spending more but it is just selling more to china. Stephen notice the axis stops at 36 . That is still a pretty large number. What is interesting about europe right now is this euro, weaker euro that is an outgrowth of the e. E. C. E. C. B. A he is q. E. Experiment will boost exports in europe but germany and france still account for the bulk of the export led growth the last five years so i think it is rather problematic that this weaker euro will favor the stronger in europe over the peripheral economies who need the boost. Tom are we in a currency war . Stephen we are definitely in a currency war. Kiwi boosted the dollar then the yen now the euro. There is talk that the chinese will change their currency policy. I hope they dont but they might. It is a zero sum type of argument that doesnt really provide much in the way of incremental growth in global demand. Brendan but it doesnt work for any individual country. You realize that at zero sum but i dont see it working for anybody yet. Stephen that is a fair point. Did q. E. Work for us . The bernankes of the world will say it does. Im still looking at this chart that shows job growth well low. Consumer growth has been anemic. You dont show that on the screens. But if q. E. Cant get demand going on a sustainable basis all it does is provide sort of temporary congratulategratification. Brendan i think Stephen Roach shubd kphraoefpbts on Ben Bernankes blog. Tom i know you will talk about summers in a bit. Lets get to the photos this morning. Easter stuff . Brendan number three is the day after easter and we are going to take a look at the pope in the popemobile shaking hands on his way to easter mass. This is his traditional address in st. Peters square. He called for the violence to end iraq, syria and ukraine. He is coming to the u. S. To make an address to a joint session of congress. Thank is amazing. Tom believe this is september that he will do this which is they are making preparations for it. Brendan hes going to speak in philadelphia atop the rocky steps. Number two this is a picture tape in new zealand a blood red moon lights up the night sky. You might call it a grapefruit moon. This is the shortest total Lunar Eclipse of the century, less than five minutes. Tom we are between the sun and moon there. Brendan there it is. Big similar investigate money sometimes they are called. Tom that is the earths shadow in the way of the sun. Not as dramatic as a solar e eclipse eclipse. Brendan it is the same thing that cause as sunsets. They are beautiful. Number one, can you name that plane . Tom spitfire. Brendan we were raised by our fathers to know what that is. That is a good question. In the back seat there you cant really see him that is prince harry. The stunt is a promotion for a spit spitfire. Could that be more british can we go back to the last photo . A spitfire the prince and white cliffs of defense defense srer. Rule brit tanya. I dont know the rest of that song how it goes. All right. Could somebody save me . I have to save myself with a tease. Coming up california confronts a drought of biblical proportions. We will see what it means to your electricity bills. Tom is prince harry the one with the kids . Brendan no rbgs he is the one without a job. This is bloomberg surveillance. We will be more responsible the next block. Israel Benjamin Netanyahu says it will lead to a Nuclear Armed middle east. Lawyers in the Boston Marathon trial are beginning their arguments. They admit he was involved in the attack that killed four but he was a pawn of his older brother who died in a shootout with police. And search is resuming in the gulf of mexico for three oil workers missing sings the fire on a drilling platform last week. Four died and 45 were hurt. The platform is run by mexicos state owned oil company. New polls show chicago mayor rahm emanuel with a big lead. He was forced into a runoff by jesus garcia. Emanuel is seeking a second term. Another republican will reportedly join the president ial race tomorrow. Kentucky senator rand paul will reportedly make an announcement joining ted cruz officially. Mothers buying breast milk on the internet may be getting cheated. Samples they tested contained cows milk up to 10 . Those are the top headlines. Tom another hour of bloomberg surveillance coming up. We will look at the jobs market and linkage into the equity marked and that report on friday and then a new economic year at 7 10 then extended conversation with peter cook about the actions of the Obama Administration yesterday as they begin to sell a Framework Agreement with iran. Looking forward to that conversation with mr. Cook from washington. Brendan california is drying up by some measures experiencing its worst drought in over mellinium. The past four years so bad that Governor Brown imposed the first water restriction last week but will that make a dent in the energy sector. Joining us is apbn analyst that covers energy and utilities. How big a deal is there for utilities in california . Were used to covering this as a conversation about lawns versus farms. Hydropower is a huge issue. Kit it used to be 20 of power in california but now 10 . So if you look at how much electric it si is used that 10 has to be replaced by natural gas. So all else equal there will be upward pressure on power and gas prices. Brendan but there is supply. We are not looking at rolling brownouts brownouts . Kit i dont see that but there seems to be sufficient capacity to get the gas to california. It is always higher priced in california than in texas because it has to go a ways. But so far anyway no big issues with enough to gas to run the power plants. Brendan this is a complex interstate system. We are talking about problems in california but california is sharing resources with a number of other western states. Kit for example, the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada and water out of the Colorado River have to be shared with arizona and nevada and the issues with the drought affect the snow pack that affect oregon and washington although they dont compete directly with california. So all of those places are seeing less hydropower and burning a lot more natural gas for electricity. Tom you know away want you on as the drought spirit of california. What about what jerry brown or the media says the sum miss particular analysis that i feel like im giving what drives you nuts about where we are . Kit you are hear things like agricultural uses 80 of the water in california. That is not true. It uses 40 . Which is a lot. But 50 of the water in california just goes back into the environment and is running down the rivers to help keep things green, which is a Political Choice this people make. Tom but in the mathematics of this the partial differentiation that will make an effect for Governor Brown what is that, people stop watering lawns . Kit golf courses will be browner, College Campuses wont have as much water. Brendan California Water issues have always been north versus south. Does this exacerbate the problem . Kit it is southern and north. They both have significant issues. Whether this does is it ratchets up the scrambling for the water rights that you had for a hundred and some years in campbell and the west. California is a scatter. Southern california, even Northern California is pretty dry as you know driving around there. Brendan we have been talking about snow pack and runoff but it seems like the other issue particularly the Central Valley the available water table is dropping dramatically so this cant be replaced. Kit that is a huge issue that is hard to handle by the governor saying 25 reduction on lawns and that is everybody can pump water out of the ground and it is hard to control who does it and how much is left. Tom my knowledge of this is Jack Nicholson and faye down dunaway dunaway. You say golf courses. If we make the golf courses brown that will make a difference . Kit i guess it will make a little difference at the mark but you are right. I think that when you look at the cities and towns only use about 10 of all the water in california so you can see even if everybody cuts back 25 that wont be all that huge of a difference. Tom i learned a lot. This is great. Very cool. Brendan our new drought analyst. Get used to getting up early. Tom fore eggsx. Euro and yen stronger. Thank you for coming pfplt. Steve roach. Are you grading on a badger not, go wisconsin for steve roach and those routing for wisconsin. We have another hour of bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom the sales pitch begins as the president calls his iran deal a once in a lifetime Framework Agreement. Corker sees multiple red flags. A tepid jobs report moves markets. If the fed is data dependent, the data says delay. How not to lose moan in money in a market going nowhere. This is surveillance bloomberg surveillance from new york and lets get straight to the top headlines. President obama is calling the deal with iran the best bet by far to make sure the iranians dont get Nuclear Weapons. He told New York Times it does not mean the u. S. Will give up military superiority or fail to protect israel. President obama what im willing to do is make the kinds of commitments that would give everybody in the neighborhod including iran clarity that if israel much to be attacked by any state, that we would stand by them. Brendan israels Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it will lead to a Nuclear Armed middle east. U. S. Futures falling after a jobs report worse than anticipated. Employers added 126,000 workers in march less than the most pessimistic reports. There sis concern it will make the outlook for corporate profits worse. Rolling stone is being slammed over the story about a gang rape at university of virginia. The Columbia Journalism School says it failed to follow basic practices. It unraveled and rolling stenson retracted it. It may spread the idea that many women develop rape allegations. In california jerry brown is defending his order for mandatory water cutbacks. The drought is in its fourth year and he has ordered tons and cities to reduce consumption by 25 . He says that it is not just a california problem. Governor brown the weather in california will be showing up in other parts of the world. From california the Climate Change is not a hoax. We are dealing with it and it is damn serious. Brendan his order doesnt apply to farmers. He said they are not frivolously using water on their laurens lawns or taking long showers. The rich are not getting rich are on wall street. Big bank c. E. O. s make less than the financial crisis and pay gap has gotten smaller. Last year they made 124 times as much as the average worker at banks and that is down from 273 times as much in 2006. Tom how many of you got crushed saturday night as i did . Wisconsin is taking on duke tonight for the ncaa means basketball title. Badgers of wisconsin shocked unbeaten kentucky in the semifinals. This will be the first time wisconsin has played since 1941. Duke has been in 19 of the hraslast brendan on wisconsin plunge right through that line. Tom whatever. Brendan i thought it was an amazing game. It was such a great game and Frank Kaminsky just can do everything. He had an option, he could have gone to the nba last year and he said he would prefer to stop being poor which is a comments on how the ncaa works but he will never again get that feeling that you do we you play for people theres no guarantee that he will be ever be that good in the nba than it is now. Tom you wonder how much cbs wanted kentucky. I wonder if the ratings change. I dont know. Brendan who knows . Tom let me did a data check for radio and television and greet all of you. Futures negative 14 again nothing friday so we are adjusting to that jobs report. The euro and yen stronger, dollar weaker. Hydro hydrocarb bonns boosted and gold up a solid 15. On friday the American Labor economy stumbled. Many are more than optimistic that the job creating machine is not derailed but what about the fed and what does it mean for stocks . Anthony dwyer is an equity strategist and he is been more than optimistic. Do you adapt and adjust off the friday jobs report . Anthony yes because the governor has said june is not off the table so you have a couple saying june is not off the table. This report clearly gives them room to maneuver between july and september but ultimately what i think is important is not that the fed will do their initial rate hike. It is that they said they are going to do it much more slowly than in the past. Tom that is what we got from Stanley Fisher and janet yellin. How do you adapt as an Equity Investor to every consonant and syllable out of janet yellins mouth . Tony it is the dumbest thing i have ever seen. We have Research Reports from people like me defining what a couple meant. That is stunning to me. Stunning to me. It means two just so you know. Just because of the revisions of the data one time we talked about the Philadelphia Fed did a Research Report this showed nominal disposeable economy sun estimated by 8. 4 since 1965 so to look at a data point on payroll and income and say this is exciting or disappointing is stilly. What we do because we are institutionally driven we look at the trend of the data and it remains higher and that is historically the cast until you have an inversion of the yield curve and that means shortterm Interest Rates ra higher than longterm Interest Rates. As long as you have a positive yield curve it is not whether you are a buyer but where you are to more aggressive and we have been in the correction camp the better part of the First Quarter thinking you will have a 5 to 10 correction. Brendan you are an honest man t. Is great to hear you talk about how futile it is to figure out what the fed is saying. Every time i hear janet yellin talking i want to say she is not into you. She is being vague on purpose. Tony you want the fed to be a hreullittle vague. When this is so defined you put yourself in a becomes and i asked the guy that report the report from philadelphia you know it is revised how can you be data dependent. He says how can they say that you have to have some reason to move Interest Rates and market expectation. So you see data points but the trend is positive. It is interesting. The reason i was in the june 1 rate hike camp is we you look at the unemployment rate, Consumer Confidence and vast majority of data you are so far by why the fed before raised rates it makes it somewhat silly to have a zero Interest Rate policy. Brendan you have a weekend to look at the numbers. I read an analysis over the weekend that said a lot of this drop could be weather related. Is the magical weather fairy going to fix this . Tony it is weather related. Report related. Fear related with energy. Brendan how much is a one off . Tony you dont know. I could make a guess. I wont invest your money on a guess feel guess. Brendan hes an honest man. Tom the only one we will have. We will talk about the equity markets and the dollar dynamics now, do you adjust for that and we uyou suggest that january net yellin has to adjust for dollar dynamics arguably a stronger dollar . Tony i could convince you a spiking dollar favors small cap domestic orient eded stocks. The only problem is that the market doesnt work that way. It hasnt worked that way in the past. From 1996 to 1998 you had a spiking dollar more than here and large cap multinationalses outperformed so you have to look at the history of the market. The dollar is never a positive for the market. Think about that. Tom is the dollar a positive for janet yellin . Tony it is helping her be patient but when i say the dollar it is such a focus, if the dollar is going down and it is helping you earn analysts say it is currency related. That is not organic growth. Then if it goes against you look at that effect. You cant have it both ways. The dollar is never considered a positive by investors for earnings. So what does it mean historically when the dollar in the 1980s you had evaluation expansion and huge bull market with a declining dollar. 1990s you had a huge market move in evaluation with a rising dollar. How do you make the case that it will act a certain way . Tom if our viewers or listeners believe in the Alexander School which is there is a ned that will be forced to delay what will that mean for the discounting of equity prices. Tony it means evaluations go higher. If you look at at chart of the evaluation of the market and put it in front of the most ardent bear and ask would you short this chart, dont tell them what it is but say would you short this chart there is not a person on the plan from the time that would. It is in an up trend. It is not exactly where the evaluation is. It is like economic data. What is the trend of the evaluation. That is the most important thing. Tom tony dwyer with us and we will talk it him about earnings revenue and sectors. Brendan i cant believe he gave you a wide open shot and you didnt say the words ruben dollar. Tom i had too much chocolate this weekend. Our twitter question, will the jobs report delay the feds rate rise. Stay with us. Tony dwyer is with us for the hour. Tom you are looking at beautiful new york city. This is an interesting must read. Brendan how do you know that an issue is worth talking about . Tom when Larry Summers writes about it. Brendan hes blessed this. Physician Times American leadership Larry Summers writes that it is time for a new leadership. That u. S. Leadership woke up to a new economic era. American listen must have a bipartisan relation at home. The u. S. Will not be in a position to shape the Global Economic system. You are not going to have any change. Brendan the specific stagnation he is talking about that i thought was interesting is that the left is unwilling to enter into trade agreements and right is unwilling to fund or accede to change at the i. M. F. And that makes it impossible to conduct any International Trade policy. Tom in is a corporate reality that you keep doing business but tony dwyer are the multinationals of today different than the multinationalses of 10 years ago ago . Tony they do business in local currencies which makes the currency translation less important in daytoday business. Brendan do we no longer need a world bank . Apple is its own world bank . Tony we have this view that today is different. Microsoft was that way 10 years ago. Brendan was it holding that amount of cash abroad . Tony nobody ever held the amount of cash apple does. Im not sure of the number but i would rather look at it as a percentage of Balance Sheet rather than the absolute amount. Tom i have about eight more questions. Coming up this is very important. It is a sales pitch and it has begun. The president this weekend most busy with discussing iran and we will have a coaching conversation with our peter cook on what to expect over the coming days. Stay with us. We say good morning on bloomberg surveillance from new york city. Tom bloomberg surveillance this morning. Lets get to the top headlines. Brendan we are begin with the Iran Nuclear Deal which president obama is calling a once in a lifetime opportunity. He told New York Times it does not mean the u. S. Is giving up military superiority or protection of israel. Benjamin netanyahu says it will lead to a Nuclear Armed middle east. Independent review is blasting Rolling Stones story about a gang rape at university of virginia. They called it a failure that didnt follow basic journalism practices. They retract the it soon after it was published last year. Kenya is launching air strikes against islamic militants in somalia why following the campus massacre. One is identified as the son of a government official. He and three others were killed by security forces. The u. S. Is asking questions of several herbal life members. They want to know about their Business Practices which says they are offering members assistance in obtaining Legal Council after an investor and management have campaigned against them since late 2012. He claims they are a pyramid scheme. Big sales jump for tesla. It sold more than 10,000 cars the First Quarter a 55 increase from a year ago. It will count with an electric s. U. V. In the second half of the year. The st. Louis cardinals have the best record in baseball 10 shutting out the cubs at wrigley. The heartbreak began early. Major League Baseballs official opening kay day is today. Tom it is a critical season. This is im just suggesting this is the year when they really decide if they are going to speed up the game. They have a major problem. Brendan it is more of a regional sport. Tom it is regional, it is barring, it is slow and it is boring and it is slow and nobody cares and they have to get it back fast. Brendan if you look to what kick kept did they have the daylong test matches that purists love and changed the format to be under two hours and completely changed the game. Tom i dont disagree with that. I saw it with tennis when they changed the racquet and tennis totally changed. This is a big year for baseball. We will see where they stand in september and in october. Lets look forward to bloomberg surveillance this morning and 7 35 we will talk about something i know nothing about furious 7 breaking records. I was told by some of our staff that i should mention paul walker and that would explain why furious 7 has done that well. Matthew miller will talk to us about the jewelry industry. It is a big industry, 22 billion and with gold up down, up down we will get an update on what we look for there. Then at 7 50 the highlight of the hour Anthony Dwyer will rye to explain earnings forecasts. We have no idea of the estimates, the forecasts what they mean right now. Lets turn to something very serious and hardest moments may be after the president spoke to tom friedman of theNew York Times saturday the white house begins a campaign to sell an iran preliminary agreement to congress. They have to sell it to israel as well the peter cook is in washington where he is expert at parsing preliminary interviews about preliminary agreements. Why did the president speak with tom friedman. What was the significance of that conversation . Peter he wants to hit the influential Foreign Policy crowd as quickly as he can with this deal and he knows that tom friedman has a large voice on these issues and with his column in New York Times. It was about a 46minute interview on camera as well and that interview i think will be watched. Interesting moments in the discussions about israel and how he was about the safety and security of israel and personal pain he was when somebody in israel question whether he is in solidarity over the security going forward. Hes trying to reach a wider audience and make his sales pitch and so far hes done pretty well. He seemed to convince tom friedman and has work to do with congress and israel but he should be feeling pretty good. Brendan tell us about his primary negotiating partner within congress senator bob corker of tennessee. He seems to be making what the president sees as the right noises. Do i get that correctly . Peter thats right. President obama could do a lot worse than bob cork are in terms of having somebody to negotiate this with on capitol hill. He called corker a good and decent man and that is somebody hes been able to do bits with before. Bob corker has been prettyed a manned that the congress has say but hes given the president latitude willing to listen to what the president has to say. Here is what the president said about how much say congress should have. President obama i hope we can find something that allows congress to investigate express itself but doesnt encroach on traditional president ial prerogatives and ensures that if we get a good deal we can implement it. Peter you will hear about bindering and nonbinding binding and unanimousnonbinding resolutions. Tom there is something for april 14 fplt. Brendan what is amazing about the negotiations between the president and senator corker has he hasnt asked for an immediate vote. Tom i wonder how organized the opposition if it is corker in the lead or other voices as well. We will go to our twitter question. We have had a huge response to this simple economic question. Will the jobs report delay our Monetary Policy . Will it delay the feds rate rise. We say good morning on a monday. This is bloomberg surveillance. [office phone chatter] [frogs croaking] you know what, let me call you back. What are you doing . [scream] [frogs croaking] [yelling and screaming] its back Xfinity Watchathon week. The biggest week in television history. Its your allaccess bingewatching pass to tvs hottest shows, free with xfinity on demand. Xfinity watchathon week. Now through april 12th. Perfect for people who really love tv. Tom good morning good let us go right to the bloomberg terminal. 50 years back, job growth bounce from our payroll. I extended out that trend and this is what we have missed over the last 15 years. This is a huge job grab. We are up, up. We are doing better here, but nowhere near getting us back to a time and place of many decades ago. Brendan what this shows to me is that there have been a lot of economists taking a hard look at what happened before the crash. The crash has cost us to reflect on longerterm trends. It lot of them started right around 2000. The was also a change in workforce participation that started around the same time. Bloomberg surveillance. Anthony 12 Million People are consultants or llcs. It is a big deal. That is also unrevised data. Benchmark revisions on these numbers is extraordinary. Tom im not suggesting that this 14 million cap is real. I would much rather 13 million or 4 million. There is the trend of that headline number that we saw on friday. Let us get to the top headlines right now. Heres brendan greeley. Brendan president obama trying to sell the American Public and congress. He tells the New York Times that this is the opportunity of a lifetime to make sure that iran does not get Nuclear Weapons and is not also protect israel. Congress needs to play a role. I want to see a negotiated agreement. I know a lot of water has to go under the bridge in the next 90 days. It is important that congress is in the middle of this, understanding, teasing out, and asking important questions. Brendan president obama praise senator corker as someone who is seriously concerned about iran. He is preserving his right to enter deals with foreign powers without congressional approval. Deals will be lower after disappointing jobs report on friday. Whatever 26,000 workers hired in march. That is lower than the 200,000 last month. Lawyers will make their closing arguments today in the Boston Marathon, and drop it attorneys have already admitted that he is involved in the attack that killed four people. He argued that he was the pond of his older brother who died in a shootout with police. The jury is expected to find him guilty. Jurors will have to decide whether he will get the death penalty. In yemen, rebels are ready to resume talks about how to resolve the countrys crisis but first, they want a Saudi Led Coalition to end the airstrikes. Rebel leaders say they will not accept the president returning to power. This that sound like a sure thing. Disney is gambling on americas love for Fantasy Sports. According to the wall street journal, the parent of espn is investing 250 million in draft kings. That company is valued at 900 million. In turn, draft kings has promised to spend more than a half billion dollars on advertising and espn. Comedian john oliver its Edward Snowden with some tough questions. Here is the host taking snowden to task with the risk of dumping classified data into the hands of journalists. We have to accept that some a step mistakes will be made. That is the fundamental concept of liberty. You have to own that. You are giving documents with documents and that you know could be harmful and could get out there. Yes. If people act in bad faith im not talking about that faith. Im talking about incompetence. We are. You will never lead be completely free from risk if you are never free. Brendan snowden is relevant living in russia. Tom you have great beltway perspective. This is a heated debate. People within his industry are absolutely livid at what he did. Forget about criminality and all that. Brendan this has ended up being a very difficult conversation for us to have. The thing that makes it most difficult about Edward Snowden is that he failed to make it a perfect act of civil disobedience. He did not release the tapes and walk and say that i did it. And this is why i did it arrest me, and we will talk of through. He failed to do that. Because he felt to do that, he makes his case much more difficult to talk about in terms of the moral quality of his act. Tom why is a comedian interviewing him . Do we have an answer . Brendan because you and i arent doing our jobs. Tom im sure mr. Oliver did a good job. Equity bonds, currency, we catch up on so much and close on friday. Much of europe close today around the holidays. The 10 year yield at one point in 3 . The stronger dollar getting near that 1. 10 euro. Gold more than elevated this morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene with brendan greeley. This has to do with the equity markets and tony dwyer with us this morning. I thought this was really interesting to this downward shift in margin debt. That is to borrow to buy stocks is a material signal to be at least demonstrably less involved on the long side of the market. Having been a bowl on equities for a very long hole, we cannot and we will not shift from bullish to bearish in one swift change of heart. But theres a tendency here and the nuance here that margin is adding so as to add our enthusiasm. Do you look at margin debt . Tony i look at some degree. Margin debt my buddy who is a wellknown economist pointed out that the computation changed a few years back. It have to be careful on how you use it relative to it. Tom this is a frosty market. To get to dennis this point, are we in a frothy state . Is it healthy for the market . Tony i do not think it is near a frothy state. How can you call 17 times earnings a frothy state . Im not going to make a comment on robert shiller, but you can tom why not . Brendan because he has a nobel prize and we dont. Tony that is an excellent point. [laughter] tony people have been making that case saying that earnings will fail. Ultimately, the market correlation has driven earnings good that a stir by Economic Activity and the slope of the eucharist. That is driven by core inflation. Until you have a spike in core inflation that brings the said into tightlipped credit, youre not going to have a negative backdrop in the current evaluations are still expanding. Brendan you are wondering what this spike is going to consist of. Is there wage pressure now and how will that play into earnings . Tony theres early signs of wage stabilization. It gives the fed room. The issue that i have been reason that i believe that we are in it march 1997 environment. The dollar is ripping an emerging economies are struggling. Commodity prices are taking. And a lot of issues are out there. The said raised rates once in march of 1997. The market corrected between february and april that year. Tom i remember august of 1997. Tony it went up 20 from that august 1997 p. People forget that the value expansion that we are currently in. Think of 1987 and 1997. During evaluation expansion, you cap monstrous evaluation numbers and get it hit by some degree later in the year. Tom i had the most martinis in a single evening. I still hold that record. Brendan i did not drink any martinis. Tony how can you even remember . Brendan would you like to know what im about to do . Im going to downshift into second, turn a screeching 180. Tom and i did not see fast and furious seven over the weekend. We are the only people in america who did not. [laughter] brendan this is the seventh installment. I cannot believe it is still happening. And right in 143 million in the box office. It made over 1 billion worldwide. However, let us take a look historically and adjust for inflation. Numeral aces do not come close to the alltime champ. The alltime champ gone with the wind. And holds 1. 6 billion dollars. Star wars and the sound of music not far behind. Tom that is how you teach alex girvin. Brendan thank you for finding these numbers and giving them to us. This is also the avengers pick up initially think of the last picture show and the development in the 50s where people left theaters and started staying at home. That has ended. Tom go back to that chart. Forget about the furious videos. Brendan i think he wants to see the alltime winners. Tom star wars pick out brendan there we go. Tom the hills are alive. Brendan toms win to keep singing. Im going to ask the twitter question. Will the jobs report rang with the sound of a federal rate rise . Tweet us. Preferably inverse. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Im tom keene. Brendan greeley, help me. Brendan fashion is a thing. It is not about buying new shoes every week. It is about jewelry. An online retailer is trying to up the 22 billion jewelry industry. Matt miller is singlehandedly accounting for matt a very interesting story because it is such a big industry and a couple of women who are going to School Together and Work Together as analyst and work separately at hedge funds met back at Harvard Business school and thought, wait, we all know where to go to look at shoes, but nobody has a goto place for jewelry. There is a hole in the market that we need to try to put a plugin. Brendan this passes the test of all great ideas in which i see it i do not understand why somebody had not done it before. What was structurally preventing going straight to consumers from designers with jewelry . Matt yeah yeah is that they buy stuff from designers, but then rather than having it brendan, they sell it off cheaper and at a higher volume and it allows it to do it at a lower cost. Im not so familiar with the jewelry industry that i know the answer that. You can kind of do that, but the lower price tom this is a knowledge base. Brendan this is a segment called men and bears in themselves. Tony i was a fine jewelry salesman in the last two years of college. Brendan what could you do that baubl;lebar cant . Tony you go in and you see what you like and you buy it. A lot of it is reference. Brendan i want to stay with tony here. I want to know how is it different when you are selling jewelry for men and when you are selling jewelry to women . If you get the camera on the right now, this is what i look like when im trying to shop for jewelry for my wife. Tony you believe what the rent says. It is basically a sales job. Tom seriously, every woman wants a bristly bracelet from tiffany. Theres still something magical about tiffany. How do these alternate was battle against 80 years of tiffanys brand . Matt there is a huge difference in price. I actually love shopping for jewelry. I love to go to tiffany, but then i sit down and look at these pieces that costs 20,000, 50,000, 100,000, im not going to be buying those things every day. These women still jewelry at 20. The highest price i sound i found was around 500. Tony is also like what generics did for food. How could you ever battle Procter Gamble as a noname brand . Brendan that turned out to be a shockingly informed discussion about jewelry. Tom you didnt know that i would know the tea bracelet, did you . [laughter] tom our twitter question of the day which wt t gold, silver gold, or rose gold . Tom good morning. Let us get to our top headlines with brendan greeley. Brendan president obama calling the iran is there deal a onceinalifetime opportunity. It is not mean that the u. S. Is giving up military superiority. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it will lead to a Nuclear Armed middle east. The boston bombing trial will head to an end today. Defense lawyer saying that he was a pond his brother who died in a shootout with police. The net and trolley guidelines passed by the sec earlier this year could appear in the federal register as soon as today. New rules will prohibit Internet Service providers from speeding up, slowing down, or blocking a consumers access to content. It will take effect 60 days after publication. New polls shows the congo mayor rahm emanuel with a big lead. He is in a battle with the mayor for a second term. Kentucky senator rand paul will make an announcement that he will join senator ted cruz of texas in the gop field with 180 people have not yet officially declared. Mothers buying breastmilk on the internet may be getting cheated. That is the finding published today in the medical journal. Samples they tested says that cow milk was up to 10 . Doctors and regulators say that could harm some babies. Those are your top headlines. Tom let us look in the loop with matt miller in today for betty liu. Yellen looks at the jobs report and finally, the ncaa doing better than good. Boy do they have a great game tonight with wisconsin. We will continue that discussion all day on Bloomberg Television and bloomberg relative radio. I got wiped out with kentucky. We will talk about that here in a minute. This is what you are waiting for with tony dwyer. What he desires is an oversold market that tries on ever greater volume. He is not received any of these gifts. We turn to april. Mr. Dwyers board. Whats to get this market going . Tony you need a fundamentally driven market which is what we explained earlier when low inflation equals a steep yield curve that you are ultimately not going into a recession. They will not peak until you are eight months into a recession. That means that we are multiple years away from that. The bottom line is that you need a reason to expect the launch of a next leg higher. There are one or two things that do it. You get a huge volume loop to the upside or deeply undersold market. Tom lets assume that we are going to continue to go through that exercise at the same level. Does that support the market not under correction or to that list the market . Tony i cannot understand. Tom if they use the cash, is a going to support the market with the market . Tony it will support the market. The reason to be bullish is that if you make 7. 5 to pay your benefits and your high fixed yield is yielding 5. 5 or 6 , you statistically cannot get there. When you have that driving and you also have ceos doing buybacks to a record degree because of the Corporate Credit no issuance and their offering more money for dividends, it is very constructive. Tom i did not get the answer i want. Does that sustain us or lift us . Tony i think it sustains us. What really lists us is that the feeling that you do not get in that youre going to miss it. Brendan that is the future of american pension conversation. The Politics Around that. Im going to do a little test and see how much of a socialist you are. [laughter] tony im a president of the western civilization at a college. Im not a good socialist. Brendan when we see wages rise are we going to see a spike in gdp as well . Tony i think we are going to see a strong rebound in gdp in the second half. Which is why i do not think we will going to 2016 without a better market. Tom is it better in the market . Tony the problem with the market is that the trolley managers Portfolio Managers are now judged weekly, not monthly or quarterly. It makes it very difficult. Every Portfolio Manager has a statement in their public statements that their longterm investors. It is hard to be a longterm investor when your biggest shareholders and your biggest clients are demanding daily returns. Or monthly returns. It makes it for a very difficult it is most like a duration discrepancy. Tom two sectors to buy right now which once . Tony anything to do with millenials. I created a household when i turn 30. I do not know about you guys when you did it originally. What you want to buy . If you create a household you have to get money to buy a household. You have to abide banks and you have to buy stuff to put in the house. That is consumer discretionary. I would throw Information Technology in there because everything that we do in putting stuff into the house has to do with technology. Brendan to answer a question, it happened like a under club. And i was 30 years old, i was 32yearold i had a wife and two daughters. Brendan tony the last thing i was looking forward to west having a household. I was on the Upper East Side having a ball. Tom this is the most depressing conversation ive ever heard. [laughter] tony think about it. When did you create your first household, tom . I didnt say year. I said at what age check . Tom 30ish. Brendan were going to pick up that topic in a bit with olivia sterns. Our twitter question of the day will the job for poor delay the feds rate rise . Yes, it is. Answer number 2 since there was never going to be an actual height hike, the civil answer is no. The third answer the rate rising on the schedule says holds, but the fed needs the cover that 4. 3 trillion banking 101. Tom a number of our guests in the last few days have said it is about the rate of increase. I was a measure has the high growth of rate right now. I do not know quite what that means. Brendan we are going to take a look at your agenda, tom. What are you watching today . Tom im looking at the data dependency. They are slaves to the data. It is a slow week for data after the jobs report. The path to june is going to be hilarious if they go take my taken the market. The miles apart. Tony that is a big deal. What is interesting is that the fed has been more wrong and the market has been right. The fed has been coming down towards that. Tom shout out to those that their world. Brendan a very little use for words, but more for the matrix. My agenda for today is iran. We have this deal and can it be sold domestically yes . It is an fascinating to watch this play over the course of the talk shows. This may result in a deal. Tom april 14 is a key date as we move into the month. How about the game tonight . My agenda is the ncaa. This is always fun. Really do we get a final that is this much fun. Brendan, you are more up to speed about this. I had kentucky and duke in the final. Brendan my bracket melted about two weeks ago, but i have to say that as not a big wisconsin fan going into it, i have been won over. They have never given up and it is amazing to watch them do a number of different things. Tom tony, who is going to win it duke or wisconsin . Tony i think duke because psychologically getting over a huge win is difficult to get over. Brendan how is your bracket looking right now . Tom we had some guys pony up some serious cash. They are really in the bracket right now. Brendan going into tonights championship game, Goldman Sachs president game gary cohen is firstrate dan gilbert second and third is john donahoe. No longer present in this bracket is tom keene. Tom it has been a lot of fun. I cannot say enough about the work that Stephanie Ruhle did. It a lot of money going to charity. Very good. That is it for monday. We are going to continue with matt miller on Bloomberg Television. We continue on bloomberg radio. Tony dwyer, thank you very much. Stay with us on Bloomberg Television and radio. Matt job report, what it means for fed policy. Figures weakest american hiring in more they year. its a closed service of the first reaction. While it april be a bad month for cashstrapped oil companies. We will tell you coming up. Today, iran passes military chief signaling support. President obama is responded to critics of the plan. He tells the New York Times