Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150330

To their rhetoric that they are not trying to look wiring nuclear weapon. Brendan the u. S. And other countries are trying to prevent iran from building a nuclear bomb. Saudi arabia is warning that fighting in yemen may escalate. The Saudi Led Coalition is conducting airstrikes against yemeni rebels. They have not ruled out sending in ground troops. In nigeria, they are waiting for from yesterdays election. President Goodluck Jonathan is running for reelection. The vote is seen as a test of civility for africas largest oil producer. Tim cook warns that there are something very dangerous happening across the country. The openly gay ceo of apple denounced the bill signed into law last week in indiana. Critics say the law will allow businesses to discriminate against gays. On abcs this week, governor mike pence called the criticism shameless rhetoric. The purpose of this legislation, which is the law in all 50 states in our federal courts and is the law by statute or Court Decision in some 30 other states, is very simply to empower other individuals when they believe that actions of government him hinge on their constitutional First Amendment freedom of religion. Brendan angies list showed its unhappiness with the law. They have with john for a 40 million expansion of their headquarters in indiana. The government governor chinas centralbank tom the joyous weekend. How many of the final four do you have in your bracket . Dude the duke beat gonzaga. On saturday, it will be undefeated kentucky versus wisconsin and duke versus michigan state. Those are the top headlines this morning. Let me do a day to check. Equities, bonds, currencies commodities. I could give you eight reasons why there is a risk on field today. The euro is turning. Nymex crude is very weak. Yemen is clearly not affecting oil at this moment. On to the next screen. Brent crude, down. We are back down at 1187 for gold. None of this is in the headlines. The german twoyear yield just grinds ever lower. We have been here once before. It is remarkable. Brendan it is amazing. Tom pce deflator. Why is 2 important . Brendan it is completely arbitrary. It is something that the new zealand centralbank picked as a target and other Central Banks have adopt that it. Adopted it. I dont see math. I see politics. You have to average a little above it and a little below it. Politically, it is difficult to be above it. There is a lot of pressure. It is hard to stay above 2 when we can never hit 2 . The average is 1. 70 . Tom one point 70 . There is the inflation. We will talk about Janet Yellens speech. We need to move to the geopolitics. Tough choices. Both sides look for tough choices by the other side. The west and iran staggered to a framework accord. We make a tough decision to speak to peter cook in washington. Secretary kerry is delayed leaving. Why . Peter he had plans to attend the big ceremony at the Edward Kennedy library in boston. He put that on hold because these talks are ongoing. A lot of people thought it would be very difficult for john kerry to make it if the talks went down to the wire and that is where they are going. His foreign minister counterpart from russia is leaving the talks later on today. He has a schedule for tuesday morning. He says he will come back if they are close to a deal. His deputy will remain. Mixed signals. Tom how much of bluff is bluffing . Peter there is a lot of jockeying going on. A lot of the public statements may not reflect the issues that are at the table. We had comments to the Iranian Press by the iranian negotiators that they were all of a sudden not going to move the enriched uranium to a third country. That has been part of the negotiations. That has been one of the givens for some time. That was a late minute hurdle. Whether or not that is a sticking point, whether or not there is means by which they can dilute that enriched uranium and not make it as much of an issue that is something we dont know at this point. There is a lot of bluffing. And a lot of time. Brendan we have seen a little backsliding on whether uranium is going to see the country and be held in escrow by russia. To toms question, is this the moment when you are buying a carpet in turkey and both people get up and they are deeply angry and they walk away and thats when you know a deal is about to happen . Peter i am not in the room and it is impossible to tell at this point, but i have spoken to several diplomats including some who have been involved previously, and they do give me the sense that a lot of what we are seeing is republican pressure back home. There are still differences. If there were not differences, they would have had a deal on sunday. What was striking to me is that some of the lawmakers on intelligence committees in the u. S. Urging john kerry and the talks. There is too much focus on the tuesday deadline. If they are really close, they should hammer at out over a longer period of time. Tom thank you so much, peter. A special thanks. Giving us a breaksclusive. When you look at Janet Yellens speech and then you note the launch of a blog by a former chairman of the Federal Reserve this happened seven minutes ago at the brookings site. This is Ben Bernankes blog. Alan greenspan never had a blog, did he . That is a scary thought. [laughter] tom it is the new technology and the new informations flow that we see. I wonder if janet yellen is plus plus on a former chairman having a blog. It is always good to hear the opinion of former officials. There is no shortage of opinion on this item. Paul krugman scott sumner. Tom it is a raging debate. It makes us all smarter. Brendan lets stay with the blog for a second. We have been trying to figure of what Forward Guidance looks like. I wonder whether this is not just a different form of Forward Guidance. Having the former fed chair explained the current fed chair is doing. Clearly, in terms of the way they conduct policy, there is a lot of continuity between janet yellen and ben bernanke. Tom what did you learn on friday . Brendan is already looking at his bracket for the weekend. There is a major speech by chair yellen. She told me she is going to go this year, most likely, and that thereafter, they are going to go tom what are the implications for markets . Anyone who thinks the fed is going to go in 2016 will be disappointed. Brendan in full disclosure, i was not looking at my bracket, i was at the Natural History museum with my son. However, what i got out of that speech was that the Unemployment Rate is lower than it was. There is further down to go. We are going to find out. A lot of what the fed did a couple of weeks ago at their last meeting may prove to be illtimed. Nehru is difficult to guess in real time. Everyone knows that. If wages begin to pick up between now and september, then we will learn looking back that nehru was not 5 . Tom we will be here good friday to give you complete coverage of the American Labor report. I wanted to alert that to you. Is the jobs report on friday important . Sure, it is important. Between now and june, we have a few more of these. The data that i have seen does not suggest a material weakening in the employment backdrop. We will still see jobless claims low. Tom we will talk about the consumer a little bit. Brendan europe on a monday. Time is running out for greece, as it always is, to come up with a series of reforms. We will give you the playbyplay. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Futures are now up 13. Brendan we begin with the talks on Irans Nuclear program. The usn and five other countries are back at the table with iran. It warning from saudi arabia. The fighting in yemen may escalate. It is not ruling out sending in troops. More followed from the germanwings disaster. Regulators in canada and new zealand and australia adopts the caulk that rule cockpit rule to have two people always in the cockpit. Lawyers for a former israeli Prime Minister are planning to appeal his conviction on corruption charges. A former staffer offered recordings of him receiving cash. Two bodies have been recovered in the rubble of three new york city buildings. The gas line may have been illegally tapped. President is traveling to boston today and he might be taking the air force one a little more slowly. The president stumbled slightly but he made a quick recovery. He is headlining the dedication of the Edward Kennedy institute. Tom coming up at 6 30, we will look at yemen. The decision over ground forces. We will have a moment of silence for my bracket at 6 40. At 6 50, the raging debate for america, the strength of the american consumer. Neil is adamant this is a consumer with a little more firepower. Brendan today, Alexis Tsipras will produce another letter. It would be good for the eurozone if greece and creditors reached a deal. There could be a hard won agreement to disperse more cash into greece within a framework covering subsequent years. Eventually, some restructuring of the stock of liabilities particularly on the official side. Brendan hans nichols joins us from berlin. Every time tsipras sends one of these letters, hans reads it. We have a lot of deadlines for greece. What is the significance of tuesday . Hans it would start the process to unlock some of the 7. 2 billion left in the bailout fund so greece could make its payment. They have a big payment coming up. We have not seen the letter. We just heard from the German Government that they have not submitted a reform list. If you heard it from the German Government that is the final word. The report is that they sent a draft over email and it was getting mocked in the german press that he greece yet again looked like they were close to busting a deadline. They still have until tonight. Tsipras addresses his parliament at 8 00. Brendan hans, i have someone more important than you who is about to speak. Ed miliband is speaking. We are going to start listening to the speech. Most of all, i want to thank you, representatives of British Business for being with us today. I want to thank you for the work you do day in and day out for our country. It is a plan that we have worked on with so many of you over the past five years. Our plan is based on a simple idea. The simple idea that written can only succeed when all businesses have the chance to succeed. Large businesses and smaller businesses. The Multinational Companies and the family firms. Creating wealth making profits providing jobs. Playing by the rules on paying the taxes that support public services. Our plan is to work with all of our businesses with a government that balances the books, invest in infrastructure, and works with you, improves skills and opens up more competitive markets. It is a better plan. It is a proper, industrial strategy built on the great strength of business to deliver higher wages, higher skills, and higher profits for firms and families together. It is also a plan that will not risk jobs and exports or throw businesses into years of on solvency by threatening to leave the european union. [applause] i believe britain has a huge number of advantages. It has so many Success Stories in businesses to celebrate. We have world leading firms and sectors. We have a distinct british talent that innovates to be the end of 8 envy of the world. I believe there are too many obstacles in your way. Too often, our businesses succeed despite the obstacles against them. Too often, businesses find themselves in a sea of an caret a insecurity. The struggle you face to get the skills that you need. The lack of sovereignty. A recovery that sometimes feels like it is happening to someone else, somewhere else. We see these challenges most of all in our low productivity as a country. For every hour worked, we produce 20 less than our main competitors in the g7. Our productivity gap is at its highest level in nearly a quarter of a century. I think this is our biggest economic challenge. As we lose our Competitive Edge in a world that will not wait. Let me also say this, there is no future for britain tom speaking at our Bloomberg European headquarters in london, Ed Miliband Labour leader. We will come back in discussion on ed miliband later. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Ed miliband is the head of the labour party in the United Kingdom. He is 45. He is the son of a distinguished professor. Brendan, he plays violin. Brendan he does. I just heard him speak for two minutes and i heard one sentence. Taxes for government services. Tom there it is. Give us the morning mustread. Brendan this is the morning mustread from bloomberg view. Just some background. Ellen pao sued a vc firm for discrimination. What she writes is that the crassness was brushed aside and nothing really changed. She did not win her case, but what she did, she could have accepted the settlement, a very quiet settlement. She said, i want to drag all of this through the mud. There were embarrassing revelations about her, as well. The things that people use to hint about on tech blogs are what we talk about openly. She talks about a chief executive accepting a plea bargain on battery domestic violence. These are things that we did not used to talk about that we do now. Tom there will be more on bloomberg west on the ellen pao verdict. Stay with us. Just because im away from my desk doesnt mean im not working. Comcast business understands that. Their wifi isnt just fast near the router. Its fast in the break room. Fast in the conference room. Fast in toms office. Fast in other toms office. Fast in the foyer [pronounced foyyer] or is it foyer [pronounced foyyay] . Fast in the hallway. I feel like ive been here before. Switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. Comcast business. Built for business. Tom good morning everyone. Lets get to our top headlines. Brendan a crucial meeting in switzerland today on Irans Nuclear program. Foreign ministers will meet. It is the first time all have been in the same room since talks were extended since november. Tomorrow is the extended is the selfimposed deadline. The white house spokesman said president obama is optimistic but cautious. The president believes that we should be able to come over the course of last year, be able to reach an agreement by the end of march if one is doable. Brendan the u. S. And other countries want iran want to prevent iran from building a nuclear bomb. In warning from saudi arabia. The fighting in yemen may escalate. It does not rule out sending in ground troops. Yemens president calls the rule calls the rebels puppets of iran. No sign of an agreement in talks on the greek bailout. Alexis tsipras told the newspapers that greece will not allow any weight any measures such as mass firings. Tim cook says that a new wave of religious freedom legislation goes against the principles the u. S. Was founded on. In an opinion article, the ceo denounces a bill signed into law in indiana. He says theres something dangerous happening across america. Critics say the law will allow businesses to discriminate against gays. Governor mike pence called the criticism of the building he signed shameless rhetoric. The purpose of this legislation it is the law by statute or Court Decisions in some 30 other states innocently to empower individuals when they believe that actions of government impinge on their constitutional First Amendment freedom of religion. Brendan pence says he would consider an amendment but would fight attempts to make changes. Although is planning to build a half billion dollar factory in the u. S. The ceo tells the wall street journal the Company Wants a north American Factory to be closer to one of its prime markets. It will announce its decision in about a month. Tom for the First Time Since 1996, mr. Woods is not ranked among the top 100 golfers in the world. Tiger woods has fallen 104th on the list. He has not played since were drawn from a tournament last month. Tiger said he will not play again until his game isnt ornament shaped. Is in ornament shaped. Brendan any company that sponsors a golf tournament. He singlehandedly drove that market for more than a decade. Tom lets talk about consumption. Look at the Fourth Quarter signaled the growth of 2. 2 . I was bombarded with messages from economists that said forget about it. The message from neil. Is that the glass is halffull n eil dutta is that the glass is halffull. I thought your note was really at and heated brilliant and heated. It does janet yellen agree that the consumer is driving the economy . Neil i think she does. She is optimistic on the outlook. Sector she highlighted that are not contributing some of the consumer was not on that list. Lets keep in mind that the consumer did better than anyone thought in 2013. Real Consumer Spending was above 3 and we closed out the year strong. People seem to have short memories. Tom i want to go to algebra monday. Here is the basic econ 101 algebra. Brendan, the noise on that export is down. Was that good . Did i do that right . Brendan tom throws to me and said we are going to talk about algebra and then im going to go to you. Im going to hold this up because this ridiculous. Here are a bunch of numbers. What they essentially say is that we are less concerned about lower exports of a higher dollar because we do not export a lot. One of the things that when you talk about consumer strength in the u. S. , it is magnified because we are good among countries at buying stuff from ourselves. Neil absolutely. The consumer right now is in its best position since the end of the recession. To me there is little doubt about that. You look at Consumer Confidence of the rate of employment growth , revolving credit, gas prices wealth. Tom you will discard this First Quarter because the consumer is so good . Neil i think you have to do that as a forecaster. Yet two very different signals on economic data. One is the gdp tracking. That is not looking healthy. The other is the Employment Data. I tend to believe that the Employment Data is easier to measure and is him more stable and is a more stable measure. Brendan youre not diving into wage growth and unemployment . Neil im. If you look at jobs, earnings and hours. That is a proxy for real economic activity. Earnings as a proxy for inflation. Tom forget about paul krugman wanting to pixie and economics hicksian economics. What is the gloom crew get most wrong. Neil mistaking noise for a cyclical recovery in the economy. The head went to the economy is fading. The Banking System is healing. Consumers are no longer deleveraging. I was the principal reason for why growth was so weak. Tom are you still in the june . Neil you have to go with what the fed is saying september. I would be adamant against the expectation the fed will wait beyond september. Brendan lets go back to that speech that janet yellen gave on friday. She says we will think carefully about every step. They can do either a slower staircase raise or a popcorn raise which means they pop it up once and they eat popcorn for a bit and watch the numbers and see whether it was a good idea. Tom is that good policy . Neil given the uncertainty around where neutral rights are right now the market is pricing in a neutral real rate of basically negative. A lot of these numbers that economists use are closer to 2 . Uncertainty Going Forward is probably the right thing in the beginning. Tom janet yellen on friday, did the difference between the market belief and the fed dialogue come any closer together . In my sense, it did a bit. Neil the fed essentially with their percentage with their projections in march capitulated to the bond market. That reduces the risk of a temper tantrum for now. Tom i want to give you credit for a glass halffull. It is easy to be gloomy. Brendan there is zero quantitative analysis in this assessment. I believe neil dutta because he makes his perditions he makes his predictions so calmly. Tom you should see his bracket. Brendan an amazing transition. Kentucky has preserved its undefeated season. While cats are headed to the final four. How the celebrities in our bracket are doing. We are all going to talk about how amazing tom is at betting on basketball. Tom blind luck. Brendan this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom spring is here. You would not know it from that shot. We look for a good week. We will be with you good friday as we look at the American Labor economy. We have smart guests to get you through good friday. Time for our single best chart. Brendan we changed some things. Todays chart is a bloomberg bracket. The final four has been decided. Kentucky edged out notre dame. Duke will play michigan state. In the lead of our bracket people who put money down for charity. Gary cohn dan gilbert tom major shot major shout out to stephanie rule. Brendan on the bloomberg surveillance desk, there is one winner. That is one, thomas arer keene. I do not know if embarrassing is the right word. Tom here is what i did. It has a lot to do with investment theory. Do not lose games. The way to not lose games is to pick the seeds. I have a couple wildcards but the goal is to go with it and not fall behind, just like investment. The cool thing which i am not qualified to talk about, when do you shift to actually choosing who will win . Visit the final four . The final eight . The final 16 . Brendan a basketball a change traded Exchange Traded fund. Tom the seeds are smarter than i am so ago with the seeds. Evan williams a bloomberg sports is really on this. He was done after three games. Brendan what is your strategy . Neil i dont pick the bracket. I went to a division iii school. Tom betty lou doing quite well. Betty liu doing quite well. A gemini and Mike Bloomberg is behind me. A gentleman named Mike Bloomberg is behind me. Should i let him when . Brendan i think he might go to indianapolis and actually change was playing. I did it exactly wrong. I picked my bracket with my heart and not my head. I had maryland going to far. I had arizona going too far. It did not work out. Tom i think there was a Huge Investment metaphor. Lets get to our top photo. We have like 47 to pick from. Eric picked up these. Our number three photo is utah. This is getting serious. You can see the ring around lake howell. A stunning 45 at capacity. The drought continues and migrate east. What have you read about this drought . Brendan we have been talking about california but it is on both sides of the cow the continental divide. There is not enough snow pack. If theres not enough snow pack cannot slowly melt over the course of the summer. Tom can i emphasize that the middle child and the youngest child were failed together were unveiled together that separate . Brendan if you are saying that the middle child and the youngest child were together and veil, youre probably done something right. Tom when do i get their life . Number two photo, in the bronx, new york citys first new gulf coast golf course in 52 years. Trump all links is the most expensive facility ever built in the United States. The course overlooks the whitestone bridge. It will cost 141 but 215 if you do not have a haircut like donald trump. Brendan i used to live on city island which is not too far away from their. Why lived on city island, i could not have afforded when i lived on city island, i could not have afforded that course. Tom very cool. Number one photo. This is unfortunately, not funny. The cyclone roller coaster stock on opening day. You do not do this at fenway park. First public run of the season. The ride stopped moving. 24 writers 24 writers were forced to climb down the structure. Brendan this is great because nobody got hurt. A wooden roller coaster. You get a real sense that something possibly dangerous is actually happening. Tom you have done it . I can go out to coney island and do the cyclone with my bow tie on. Im scared stiff of roller coasters. Futures up 10. Coming up, we focus on geopolitics. Willis sparks from eurasia group, any number of talk topics. From new york city, bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning. Good friday, jobs day. We will be here. Brendan time is running out in the talks on Irans Nuclear program. Negotiators are back at the table. The selfimposed deadline is tomorrow. The west wants to stop iran from building atomic weapons. A warning from saudi arabia. The fighting in yemen may escalate. Expanding airstrikes and says it might send in troops. Tunisias interior minister says the mastermind of the Museum Massacre is dead. He was killed near the algerian border. A group linked to al qaeda took responsibility for the attack. California firefighter is in Critical Condition after falling through the roof over burning garage. The accident was captured on video. Fellow firefighters pulled him out and ousting with water. Conservatives led by former president Nicolas Sarkozy dominated elections yesterday. The new dreamworks movie is a hit. The studio was looking for home to top expectations. Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez have major voice roles. Dreamworks is restructuring four of his last six movies lost money. Tom something we can do as we move into the 7 00 hour, peter cook will report from washington. Janet yellens speech reaction across that important speech on friday. Something that has captured the art world. This is one of the most important picasso paintings. We are privileged to bring you one of the leaders of christies. A gorgeous painting. The numbers being touted are extraordinary. Barry reynolds i have to recapitulate what he said. I can think of 18 million reasons for the u. S. 18 trillion reasons for the u. S. To issue a 50 year bond to refinance all of its debt. Interest rates will rise one day. Those who are been predicting a return to traditional rate environment have been dead wrong. Are they just early or is this a paradigm shift . We might not know for some time. Neil dutta with us. Are just assume within your economic work that someday well get back to normal rates . Neil i think we will eventually. If Interest Rates are at these levels, the market is telling us stagnation cases are right. I think at this point, the view has to be correct in order for some of these trades to pay off. Im not a believer in secular stagnation. Im with the fed on this. I think they will be able to normalize rates to something close to 4 . Tom the ghost of robert the ghost as Robert Santos and has written about is the skeleton of the 1960s. I hear no one talking about Walter Heller inflation. What is the letter the level of high inflation . Neil something over 2 on a sustained basis. We know that compensation equals inflation plus productivity. The nasty secret is that over the last couple of years, wages are about where they should be. Tom we need to go to the pageantry in london. This is part of the dissolution process. This goes back to 1715. Amended in 2011. How they end a parliament in the United Kingdom. Brendan the ritual which is so elegant. Just passing by st. James park. He is arriving at Buckingham Palace now. What we are looking at in the car is a test case for austerity. That is what is on election this week. There he is pulling onto the palace grounds now. What we are looking at is a clear test case. David cameron set out what he was going to do. He did it and now we are voting. Tom within the peasantry of this, going back to william and mary in 1750, obviously a different process. With the delivery of this document to the queen by the Prime Minister, there is a government but there is no parliament. All the mps could you imagine if we dissolved congress and all the congressman lost their jobs . Brendan it would be great. We did dissolve surveillance right now. Looking at cameron entering Buckingham Palace as we speak do you see it this way a clear test case of austerity . Neil if you look i might be wrong about this, if you look at the labour and conservative party, they are both promising austerity Going Forward. Theyre promising tight budgets. Tom and bill of them the labour leader talking about the clear and present danger of leaving the eu. We have gone from two parties to five parties in a sharp disagreement. Brendan your seen it all over europe. In a lot of democracies, the two major parties have ignored any antieuropean sentiment. They assume that rightthinking people are for closer to you european immigration. Now what you have with the u. K. Ip with the National Front in france, they have missed the opportunity these far right parties have taken on in being adamantly antieuropean. Theyve lost the chance for a responsible party to be against it. Tom the template of different austerities across europe. Much more to talk about as the Prime Minister visits the queen at Buckingham Palace. Ed miliband giving a speech on labors view. They sharply disagree with the tory party. Four x on a churning day four rex on a churning day. Sterling, always a litmus paper for the United Kingdom economy. We have some nice surprises for you in our next hour, including a discussion on americas geopolitics. It is near spring in new york. Stay with us. Tom secretary kerry extends his stay. Top decisions needed by both sides. Janet yellen insists the fed will not being measured. Rates will rise slowly. Ed miliband speaks at bloomberg in london. It is monday, march 30. I am tom keene. Joining me, brendan greeley. Lets get to our top headlines. A byzantine a busy monday morning. Brendan five come five countries meeting in switzerland today. Those could agree to extend. The west must make serious decisions. We have been negotiating. It is time to send a clear signal about whether or not they are willing to make the commitments required and live up to their rhetoric that they are not trying to acquire a nuclear weapon. If they can make those commitments, they should be able to do that by march. Saudi arabia warning that the fighting in yemen may escalate. It does not rule out sending in ground troops. In nigeria, they are waiting for results from yesterdays election. Goodluck jonathan is running for reelection. The vote is seen as a test of stability for the largest oil producer. Tim cook the latest to oppose the religious freedom law. He is warning that there is something dangerous happening across the country. Cook says the law goes against the principles the country was founded on. It will allow businesses to discriminate against gays. Mike pence called the criticism shameless rhetoric and said the laws intent is to protect government overreach. The purpose of the legislation is the law by either statute or decisions in other states is to empower individuals when they believe that actions of government impinge on their constitutional freedom of religion. Brendan angies list has which drawn a expansion of their headquarters. The governor of Chinas Central Bank can do more to support economic growth. Tom march madness, undefeated. Kentucky will be there. They be notre dame by two points. They killed arizona. Duke plays michigan state. Those are the top headlines. This is a good thing. Data check. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. It bears close watching. Tough choices both sides. No question about that. Meetings extend towards a 46 hour deadline. We get expertise from peter cook. Are we the lead negotiator for the west . Peter president obama is among the World Leaders who are part of this conversation who has the most at risk year in terms of if there is no deal. The u. S. Is taking the lead. There are other nations involved. Not everyone has seen everything exactly the same, i died. I am large, they are on the same page. Brendan is a deal important for john kerry . Peter no question about it. There is a legacy issue here. He has made it clear he would like to get there. There is intense pressure to get a deal that they can sell here at home. They know how skeptical congresses. There is a lot on john kerrys play. Brendan part of it is the posturing at home in both countries. Iran, negotiators have to deal with a different constituency back home. Absolutely. They are playing to their own domestic concerns. They have a press corps covering these talks. It makes it back to the front pages. The same thing is happening here in the United States. Playing to those concerns, whether or not what we are hearing coming out of those conversations is what is happening in the room remains to be seen. There are differences. Tom peter cook, thank you. Iran, yemen, greece nigeria ian bremmer and synthesizes our view. We are joined by a macro analyst. The idea here of what it is likened to iran is likened to tehran. The country is involved of this. Sanctions have taken a toll on iran. This is something the population will feel over time. It is why the last targeting issue is how fast are you going to list sanctions how fast are you going to lift sanctions . One of the Untold Stories is not just the israeli government, the saudis are very nervous. Tom the United Arab Emirates is right there. They look across the water and they can wave. How ancient is that animosity . There are very few countries where shia outnumber sunnis. When you talk about salaries, uae, or other governments, they are concerned about how much mischief a government that has brought a lot of to bear to say nothing of whether iraq also gets stronger. Brendan i was astounded by a sentence i read. Its is a bunch of things that were not true. Saudi arabia is really ready to fight. It did not end well. I would not overstate what they have agreed to. The devil is in the details. Are they going to use this force . We will see. The fact they are putting together, it shows how nervous they are that there is going to be a deal. Iran is going to become more. Tom it is peter otoole and omar sharif going across the sands. What does a Ground Invasion of yemen look like . There are so many different groups. There is a sunniled government. Putting troops and, they have done this before. It did not end well. They have to keep that in mind. Brendan saudi arabia is willing to take more responsibility. What they used to do was put in a phone call to washington and ask washing to do that. One of the reasons why they have not cut production is because as much as it is not good for them, it hurts iran much more. Tom picasso, 140 million dollars. We will speak of the painting. Tom it was a townhouse of the duke of talking ham. Bring it forward, it is a pageantry in the drama of the are visiting the queen. Prime minister cameron is at the white house. Ed miliband is in our bloomberg headquarters with important comments earlier this morning. Brendan, you have a thought . Brendan coming Prime Ministers has received this news . Tom this is a different dissolution. Brendan there are two things at stake. A referendum on things we refer to as austerity. Tom being fought out among five parties, much more fractious. Speaking to francine, the terrific coverage we are going to devote to may 7 with our offices in london is this is a different election and people in the United States have to pay attention. Willis, lets step back. Whether you like it or not Henry Kissingers world order. What is the world order right now . I am not sure there is a world order. Lets talk about europe, we had a referendum in scotland last year. The catalogues and spain are trying to start an Independence Movement there. That is happening other places. Major Political Parties in major European Countries are faced with the irruption of all of these parties. At a time when the right is on the move in france, whether youre talking about greece golden dawn on the right. The rise the left. Even in germany it is everywhere. It is the rebirth. Tom is it in america . You can argue it is related to this in a sense it is a rejection of the status will. Why do we assume two parties are the way to go and republicans should try to incorporate that energy . Tom fascinating monday morning here. Stay with us. Tom good morning. Lets get to our global top headlines. Brendan we begin talks that the nook your program, negotiators are back at the table with iran. Tomorrow is the selfimposed deadline for a deal. A warning from saudi arabia. The fighting in yemen may escalate. They are expanding strikes. It is not ruling out sending in troops. More fallout from the germanwings disaster. Regulators adopted the rule after investigators learned the germanwings copilot locked the captain out of the cockpit. Lawyers for the former israeli Prime Minister are planning to appeal his conviction. They found him guilty of fraud and breach of trust. He was reach ride after a former staffer offered recordings of him receiving cash. Marco rubio will announce he is a candidate in two weeks. The men are not the only ones playing college basketball. Notre dame and South Carolina heading to the womens final four. They punched their ticket by beating florida state. Two more games will round out the final four. Those are your top headlines. Tom we look at greece. Supras back in athens. 740, jobs preview. Look for bloomberg surveillance. Complete coverage. Oil markets. Away from yemen and the geopolitics. Brendan six mondays from now, christies may break its own record. The most expensive piece of art sold at auction. The painting is valued at 140 million. Is this just a Business Cycle . This is an exquisite painting. It is a onceinalifetime opportunity to acquire one of the best picasso paintings. Brendan generally prices are going up. Generally. Also, for the best of the best. We are seeing an incredible flight to quality. Brendan that is how you define quality . Picasso . The best example is by any artist or what is best appreciated. I am not going to explain the painting, but i am going to explain this word. Modern. Is this a modern auction . Are all of the hipsters going to be going after monet or matisse . It is a oneoff sale we are doing. Private school for your kids . Instead of selling works only in our traditional categories this season, we decided to curate a sale that is targeted to what we think most collectors are looking for, which is great examples from the 20th century. Brendan lets look at the return on the sale. It was sold in 1937 for 31 million. One has changed in the collecting world that makes that kind of appreciation possible . Changes in the economy, but also, the rarity of this lease. The rarity of this piece. Tom you mentioned this before auctions are about debt and divorce. Who has this painting and why are they selling it . A it is coming from a private collection. They have had it for close to two decades. That is not much a trader mentality. They collected and loved it for a long time. Brendan someone is remodeling and it does not fit the color palette. It was in a personal collection and now we do not know if it will go to a personal or an institution. Tom heres the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. I will go to all four corners of all four kingdoms of the United Nations with one clear message. Together, we are turning our country around. For your sake the sake of your children, for their future. We must see this through together. Five years ago when i walked through that door, millions of people were unemployed there was no Economic Security for families, and there were worries about whether our country could pay its debts. Britain was on the brink. Tom the Prime Minister in the United Kingdom. The election begins may 7. We will have complete coverage for you. Stay with us. It is bloomberg surveillance. Tom a look at a more global view. A metaphor for disinflation. Germany is down here. Brendan the Federal Reserve has two goals, employment and price stability. Price stability leaves them at a handicap. Tom to our conversation before this uproar is a desperation over a lack of growth. Lets start with china. This is a place where there is so much focus on gdp growth arguably, the leadership is more worried about job growth. That is where you need to stability. There are a lot of countries around the world. The question in prices the question of creating jobs. Are they trapped in china . They will not know until it is too late. The assumption is they have a good handle on this. The growth target was about. They think they have some flexibility. Tom we need to go to london. Labor is the only one of the two major parties setting out and unambiguous commitment to remaining inside, not outside the eu. You say someone like to stay out of the campaign. Have you drag some of them into the campaign . You took out this ad where you listed the comments on europe by a number of big businesses. Did you clear that with them . Does this suggest they are endorsing . He has said he is not unhappy, he is fine with us using the quote. It reflects the reality of what many businesses phil what many businesses feel. It is a big contrast for my party. 30 years ago, my party was advocating withdrawal from the european union. We are in the mainstream ground where businesses in the conservative party is drifting off. Tom you talked about it being ok to make a profit downstairs. What is an acceptable profit . That is not for me to name. It is important to make profits, create wealth, and employ people. There is a big issue as a labor leader going into the selection. We are going to be making cuts if we get into government. We are going to work with business to create the higherpaying, skilled jobs the country needs. People feel the recovery has not reached them. We have to create the good paying jobs that will build the recovery and reach everybody. Businesses will listen to what you sad and say that no business that works for the nhs should make a profit. This is a party that has an impulse to regulate. What makes 5 the right number . It reflects a reality. It is not the same in my view as the private sector. It has a particular place. Integrated health care is the way forward. I reflect with the british people feel, private companies can play a role, but there has to be some limits to that. Why is it acceptable to limit one company and you will limit me to a 5 margin . Some of the global pretax margins of Drug Companies way higher than the 5 . Wire Drug Companies different . If you talk about public money being used they are a different category. If you are saying the nhs should seek a good deal with Drug Companies, they should. Can you give us a bit more information on what is a predatory business . I do not think it is a good way to run a business. I want to see businesses making profits and creating wealth. When it comes to the insecurity they provide to people, we need greater security. I do not think it is a contradiction. Businesses say we do not use the contracts or we use them at the margins. They want security for their work forces. You are talking about very limited. It is very much in the margins not the epidemic we see. Guy i am curious we are trying to understand where it exists. Where do you have the spectrum . Prime minister miliband the banks, lets talk about the banks. The banks are the lifeblood of our economy. They must be the lifeblood of our economy. We can agree it involves some pretty bad practices and that regulation. When government comes along it is a pro competition argument i am making. We have a concentrated banking sector. I want to see reform in that sector. Successful markets have dynamism. Lets have successful markets. Guy you have talked about producers and predators and a 5 margin, not a 6 margin. Many within the Business Community would like to understand where the businesses sit. You generate headlines. Business has to deal with those further down the road. It is a partnership. A partnership for a purpose. It is crucial for them and the future of our country. Reforming the European Unions are better than business. I am relaxed about people getting rich as long as they pay their taxes. It defines the relationship between new labor and the Business Community. Pm miliband where i would define the relationship is a partnership. A partnership for a purpose to change the country. Lots of businesses say we are worried about the fact that the country seems to work if you are at the top of all sorts of people. We can have a partnership to change that. A partnership is probusiness. David cameron was saying he did not think you were up for the job. He says he knows what it takes. How does that sit with you . Pm miliband you have a Prime Minister who refuses to debate me but then says i am not up to the job. I think he is say that she is in a negative state of mind. He is going to throw lots of stuff that me in the campaign. He is worried he might lose his job. Im going to focus on the british people. Guy thank you. That is it for us. Let us cross back to our colleagues. Tom dorsett south of london, one of the key three marginal districts. This is the liberal democrat community. Brent says they are in coalition of taking a pounding. I listened to David Cameron talk and i kept thinking about the two men not in the room. David cameron mentioned he was going to go to all corners of all nations of the u. K. He is talking about the way politics have shifted. You have nigel, who is dragging cameron to the right. You listen to ed miliband trying to take the center. Tom does it become a phrase in our election . All parties are in favor of keeping the National Health service. I was amazed to hear a Political Party candidate who has a good shot at becoming the next Prime Minister talk about Good Companies and predator companies. Can you imagine any politician saying that and surviving the election . Tom we continue with our discussion. Brendan talking about the possibility of u. K. Drifting towards exit. Another Country Racing towards exit. Greeces Prime Minister will produce another letter of changes to the country. Hans nichols joins us from berlin. What to expect from this one . Hans we expect them to meet the target of 1. 5. That assumes a 1. 4 growth rate. Hard to see how you get there when you have over 50 billion euros leave the country in the last three months. These are questions to be asking in brussels and berlin. You have a debate about whether it is specific enough. Brendan that represents a huge climb down for their creditors. Hans that is the big compromise they made in the february 20 agreement. Start implementing the program and you have a chance, an opportunity to get some of this that is left over in the bailout. So far, greece has not done anything specific enough to unlock the funding and they have big deadlines coming up. They have close to 450 Million Euros that they need to pay. April is a tough month in terms of refinancing. Brendan give us a sense how important these deadlines are. On this desk, i hear this is it for greece, and then it is not. Hans you can see where this is going. You can probably stop it. The deadlines are shift about. Even the april 9 deadline greece might be able to shift funds internally. They might be able to make the payout. They are probably going to need some sort of cash infusion. They say how theyre going to reform pensions and labor laws. Youre not going to get the money unlocked. Tom what i hear is this is a financial ramifications story. If greece goes belly up, it still has a knockout effect to the eu system. A lot of people have been preparing for this outcome. They have virtually no love it no leverage. It has been very clear from the beginning there going to have to backtrack on all of these promises. That is what they are doing. They are going theyre backtracking. In the end, they do not have anyone to work with. Brendan do you sense that they are more and more anxious to see greece go . Hans in some ways, they do not have negotiating power. How united is this. Tom we continue a discussion of economics. We look at london on a day of pageantry. Tom the euro weaker this morning. Lets get to top headlines. Brendan negotiators are back at the table. A selfimposed deadline is tomorrow. A warning from saudi arabia. The fighting may escalate. It might send in troops. Also right now the mastermind of the Museum Massacre is dead. He was killed i security forces. A group linked to al qaeda took responsibility for the incident. A gas linemate may have been illegally tapped. Jetblue apologizing for a ticketing outage. The problem appears to have been resolved, but passengers said they missed their flights. The new dreamworks movie is the hit the struggling network was looking for. Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez have major voice roles. Those are your top headlines. Tom deal or no deal for iran. Peter cook in washington. In greece, we were speaking. Say press is back. At eight 20, betty liu will speak to mr. Purcell he about when will wages rise . Lets look at oil, away from the geopolitics. Oil has been lowered for longer. The price moved on yemen a few days ago. More than anything, crushed by the microeconomics oversupplied. Marginal International Relations at eurasia group. Brent is key. Which nation should we focus on . It cost them some revenue but they have reserves and they like the neuron sweat. They like seeing the russians sweat. For the moment, they are sitting and saying we do not have to do anything area and tom do they have a phone line that goes in . They wield the predominant influence. The problems is opecs together they announced cuts and the salaries feel everyone else cheats. They say we need fellow members and nonopec members to share the burden of cuts if were going to do it. Brendan were going to go to stephen schwartzman. He says there are remarkable deals in debt and equity. Stephen when you go into a period of distress, everybody starts freezing. We have relatively little exposure to problems. We are very actively evaluating a lot of situations and our people are not troubled working out problems where other people are. The scale of the Energy Opportunities is huge. Brendan most of the investments are not in oil. Exposure to Lower Oil Prices is limited. Another event it will have an impact on the price of oil. Nigeria. Some of the Voting Technology did not work. What are you looking for in news . Who won . It is the largest economy, the Largest Energy producer. The backstory is the move to democracy in 1999, 16 years ago, came with an implicit promise not written into the cost to shut, there would be a powersharing deal. In the 16 years since then, we have had 13 years of president s and only three years from the muslim north. It is a backdrop of building pressure. We may see some degree of violence. Tom what does nigeria do . Click not much crude it is far from the boko haram stuff going on. We may go back to a period where there is more unrest in the delta that we saw six to eight years ago. It could come back under certain circumstances. Brendan the price of oil has a huge effect on nigeria. When they lose that revenue, there are longterm consequences. It is a much better diversified economy. Oil is very important. This is a diversified economy. Tom do they have a price call on oil . We talk in terms of upward or downward pressure. The range, through the rest of the years, about where we are now. Youre not going to see saudi movement, china is slowing down and india is not picking up fast enough. Tom the snapshot of oil shows lower for longer. Brendan i am interested in the take away from willis sparks we can talk about Different Oil economies and it comes down to saudi arabia. They are sitting at the taps saying they are fine. Everyone is waiting to see whether there is a ron deal framework now in the details later. We are following the libya story. In terms of the larger issue, if you want to a change, it is a saudi cut that is going to get us there. We do not see that on the horizon. Brendan were going to move to our agenda. The stories that will be important today. Countries waiting for election results. Voting was extended until saturday. 170 million people, a hugely diversified economy. We are waiting to see whether violence follows the results. On my action the, greece. Another letter to germany. How specific the promises are going to be. We get the sense that we have not seen the letter. It does not sound like they are going to be what germany is asking for. Tom you learn that when the fed does something on a friday nobody pays attention. There was coverage by the different reporters of a very important speech. On monday, i underscored what yellen said. It was very smart and very appropriate for the moment. Brendan i get the basic message that we are still figuring this out. Tom this goes back to measures which i associate with quarterpoint versus a more ad hoc make it up as you go approach. An extremely intelligent speech. We will have much more as we go to jobs day. We will have coverage on radio and television. We leave you with a shot of parliament. Stay with us. Betty good morning. Were live in blue break headquarters. This is monday morning and minutes away from the opening bell. We have a great show for you this morning. One Economist Says not since the 1960s have wages been this important for economic future. Tom joins me as we wait for income numbers out in a half hour. It billionaire joins me to talk about group products, hair care and alcohol. He is well known. 2 billiondollar brands. Plus, mission to the space station. Nasa begins. It could mean a trip to mars is not too far into the future. Elon musk saying over the weekend in 10 years, we will beheaded there. A former astronaut is with us