Congress would approve it. Im confident if we reach a verifiable and assures that iran does not have breakout capacity, that not only can i persuade congress, but i can persuade the American People that it is the right thing to do. Iran has said its new Clear Program is only being used for peaceful purposes. Here at home, republicans are stepping up their offensive against president obamaS Immigration order. Senator ted cruz of texas as the president can impose his own immigration laws unilaterally, the next president can impose his own laws as well. He spoke on fox television. For four to five main people here illegally, his promising to print up and get work authorization, essentially, he is gotten the job of counterfeiting immigration papers because theres still Legal Authority to do what he is doing. Ted cruz says he has a solution as long as the president S Immigration order is in effect, the senate should refuse to confirm any of his nominees except for crucial National Security positions. The government is coming out with the rolls on commercial drones. According to the wall street journal, theyre likely to be pretty tough. The journal says the faa is expected to require licenses to operators data licenses and drones would have to be limited to Daylight Hours and the drone with have to stay in sight within the person at the control. Theres a new spyware in it is been called the most sophisticated in the world. Computer Security Companies say the new malware is probably being run by western Intelligence Agency as it is targeting russian and saudi telecoms. They say it is more advanced in some ways than the malware developed by u. S. And israel that targeted Irans Nuclear a lot of probablys in that article. Professional football, it is nothing short of spectacular catch, some of said the greatest ever, and last dates game between the new york giants and the dallas cowboys. Mr. Manning threw a 43 yard bomb to mr. Beckham who bends over backward for onehanded catch. Twitter blew up. The cowboys move up. Michael irvin tweeted one of the greatest catches ever. The giants ended up losing, the cowboys coming back in the end. What a catch. That is unbelievable. Skill. What it never to have met for the gloves. The gloves help, but at the end of the day, that is why it works so well with the mainstream media. One of the themes of our our hour, good morning, it is a fourday work week. I will be here friday. Friday. Forward to i will be working. What else is new . I am here thursday. I believe it. Lets do a data check. We had to make it up today. A record high for the dow. I put apple up there. 116. 69. Lets go to the mac monitor. We have the bloomberg terminal available to all of you worldwide. This is apple. Up, up we go. Tim cook is a terrible person. He is no steve jobs. Splitadjusted, 100 a share. Oh, the world is ending. That we remember this . Were all going to die. Talking about the rally in the s p, 25 comes up from a runup in apple. Tim cook is an evil and bad person. Now he is the savior of apple. Im editorializing, how dare i do that. There is apple computer. This is one of the snapshots of this 2014. The holidays begin. Theres one and only one major global issue this morning, i ran in the west are in serious diplomatic discussions on a complex at of issues wrapped around the reality of uranium, site from nuclear talks, well, theres much, much more. We need perspective. Mes is with us, a student of distress investing often around the complexities of distressed societies. Also, tom, this is a really smart book for the young brooklynites. Doctoroff, wonderful to have you here. You just flew in from shanghai. Quick i just got off the plane. Next week really appreciate you being here. This speed, look at how are diplomatics diplomatic talks changed now from the whole oversight . Youre asking me about diplomatic talks . I would say it spread quickly. When youre talking about brand and message from a government, it has to be managed very fluently. It is a bigger challenge to control the message and get the word out. Humes, what message are you extending . It is an interesting situation because of all the geopolitical dynamics behind the scenes. It will have whatever happens with iran, you can expect their some backdoor negotiations with russia, which has some impact on what were doing say in ukraine. Obviously, theres the overlay of everything in the middle east with isis, isil, islamic state, whatever you call them. These are very complex decisions the state department is having to make in coronation with obama. Im fascinated within this conversation about the total mass of degrees of freedom massive degrees of freedom. Theres been so much talk about how europe and the u. S. Are loggerheads, is there the same when it comes to iran . What the United States might want out of iran, they will need cooperation from russia. So it is going to affect how hard we can push back if we feel theres something to be done, visavis, ukraine. It has a distinct degree of complexity. One of the ingredients feeling the complexity and change in the calculus is the falling price of oil. Do you think that is putting more pressure on iran to cut a deal, more pressure on russia to support the u. S. Packed . I think it certainly envying it for us the highest cost producers of oil happen to be or include iran and russia, but that doesnt give us ultimate leverage in these negotiations. Iranpposedly, saudi and are preopec meetings on thursday, are talking about some form of supply reduction. Will they, wont they . I think forecasters are split 50 50 . As mr. Cruz was talking about earlier in the news, immigration. This battle. Once again, we try to battle immigration 2015. What is the urgency, hans humes, tried to make a change in immigration . I think the urgency around the most recent developments with obama trying to pen down republicans maybe to incite a bit of a primary split, and spit out a more conservative candidate for the toy 16 elections. I was a little surprised you did this, because i thought he might be more concerned about his legacy. Tom doctoroff, as we talk about immigration, when you were in china, you must are a lot of conversation about how the u. S. Needs to do more on immigration, especially these high skilled visas for tech jobs. What can of discussion is there in china on that . I think everybody has, especially now, there is a rise of nationalism. So the ambivalence the country has regarding the United States as a destination of golden opportunity on one hand, but also a creeping political incorrectness about whether or not china in fact does not offer or should offer the future. So i think there is some ambivalence that is happening right now. In general, United States is a destination and will always be a destination and a was be very aspirational because you can pursue your opportunity and the chinese know that. Hans, youre going to amsterdam for the show. We appreciate you showing up. Tell us about the netherlands. Are they in recession . Is there a recession moved there . I think theyre more inflated than southern europe, but i think the preoccupation throughout europe is around the slowdown in the eurozone. And what is interesting, this discussion, i think it was an editorial in the ft this morning inut how the radical left quotations, prescription for getting europe out of recession, is probably the right one. It spurred on a a lot of conversation last night among myself and my colleagues. I think that is to philly the backdrop in the netherlands and the mindset is much more broadly europe and the specific to the netherlands. Hans humes and Tom Doctoroff with us as we get your monday started. We will be here monday, tuesday, wednesday and friday and tom will be here thursday. I will be here thursday. We asked, what are the cost of trying to maintain gdp at seven 7 , even 6. 5 . We discuss it with hans humes and Tom Doctoroff. We also want to bring you our twitter question of the day. Are you going to be taking planes, trains, or automobiles this thanksgiving . Hans humes is getting on a plane later on today. Uber for tom keene as he makes his way home. Uber. Tweet us. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Chiefthis morning, stirrer upper of things and with that helawsky lou with betty liu. We say good morning, im tom keene. Olivia sterns through the short straw in the monday morning. She is here with scarlet fu. She was traveling and rushed back. We have no life. Over the weekend, front and center was a new mediocre nowhere more so than russia. We will touch on russia in a bit. First, can we prosper in america in 2015 if the new mediocre range of china finds a real struggle . Can america actually be a locomotive if the train cars behind are drilled . With us, hans humes, just off tomplane from shanghai, doctoroff. Were changing our name to december 5. Thank you. Can have a little propaganda from my company . Our year were celebrating anniversary. Were going back to our pioneering roots and rethinking our name. Were going to rip up the script. This drives me nuts. A bunch of consultants walk in and get a big fat jwt and how do you think that makes me feel . You are blaming me . What a gene green the decision back to J Walter Thompson . I think we needed to get back what we were about which is building brands. Ago,anged to jwt fears partially a stating to project an image, a modern image of social media was rising. Then i think it made us take a little bit of our eye away from the totality of what we do. Austria . When does he stop . I think it stops when we realize we have to define who we are him is stick with it, it is all about consistency of message instead of being nervous about the latest trend that is happening. Jump in here. J Walter Thompson is somewhat identifiable, jwt to me dont recognize. Wasnt that a Country Music act . He opened for toby keith . People do know is also as jwt , but i agree, J Walter Thompson but its elegant, timeless signature is a great icon. That is admin magic right there. Pri get these young upstarts that all wear black, i will go International BusinessMachines Company get hate mail from ibms business people. I go to the new bank of switzerland, oh, my god, you cant say that. How does that make you feel . Like a fossil, for starters. I have an acronym i think is out of date, brics. Do you think the term is even relevant anymore . I was disliked labels. I did not like calling it emerging markets. Emerging from what . Brcs was very catchy in a good way to bring money into developing economies, international to outside europe, youre aggregating things like large economies. Frankly, at this point, these are the countries that are going to transition, created huge inflow of money that wasnt very good or credible. When jim oneil came up with that, it had huge validity and things changed. Things changed an interesting thing is, what may have changed was there was a lot of capital inflow into these countries. And were dealing with now will create opportunities for next year, as a transition. Or so has brought to much money in the corporate sector, and were starting to see highprofile corporate names fall 50 points can you buy resilient . Brazil yet . Silient petrobras has been rocking brazil for the last month. Olivia sterns and hans humes at a bar having drinks, the whole thing would place would fall silent. 184 over treasuries. Tom doctoroff, do they embrace the term . I dont think china likes to see itself part of any academic whatsoever. China things of itself as the ultimate rising power. It wants to stand shoulder to shoulder and friendly yet aggressive competition with the United States and the 21st century. China is the center of gravity. ,o be part of an upper them even a letter of a now can them, is not something the chinese will relish. How a shanghai different from three years or 10 years . Ive lived in shanghai often on for 15 years and always say theres nothing fundamentally different in terms of rhythm of pace of business, but it is much more of a connected modern society. China and shanghais become modern and internationalize, but it is not becoming western. The Business Model is not becoming a western Business Model. Thank you, Tom Doctoroff, and we will dive into his book twitter is not a strategy. Mad menittle bit of in it. Washington, d. C. , your nations capital, we will go at some point to Philip Mattingly as he will talk about iran. That is a gorgeous shot of the capital. Isnt it . It makes me feel like things are getting done in washington. Stay with us, bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. This is great. Restrooms. It must be about laguardia. We will talk about travel in a moment. One of the worlds worst airports. This is bloomberg surveillance. A good thanksgiving week to you. Scarlet fu and Olivia Sterns with me. The morning mustread he is making the point after six years of cutting Interest Rates to rock autumn, what has been achieved rockbottom, what has been achieved . Century, everybody warned that Government Spending is going to cost jobs and instead we should impose harsh physical does fiscal austerity. Hostns humes, our guest for the hour. When you hear paul clement signoff on economics and what the federal government and banks have been doing, do you roll your eyes or agree with him . I will confess toward agreeing with him. My main professional interaction was with europe. Austerityd the forced seems to have yielded the results i would have expected although, the other side is, you look at the u. K. Do uks the only g7 economy right now that is really close to escape velocity. Theyre about to raise rates. Their result of George Osbornes austerity. You are right. A good counterpoint there. The u. K. Also was able to work ,ith different Monetary Policy the seven European Countries southern European Countries or really stuck in a bind, which resulted hans humes, the heart of this matter, the european contact. Should we bring it over with the mayflower compact, which is everyone for themselves . The germans did better than we did. She we bring over eurocentric labor policy to america . I dont think so. We are making the europeans not look so good. Is it true . The ad business . Labor policy reflects culture. You cant do something good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Top headlines, focus on iran. Time is running out on negotiations with iran over its nuClear Program. Secretary of state john kerry and his counterpart are talking about extending the deadline. The u. S. Russiachina and others tried to prevent iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran wants economic sanctions eased. In interim deal expires tonight. Samsung getting ready to restructure its management is a mobile executives are likely feeling the heat as earnings slump in market share shrinks at the worlds biggest marfan maker. Changes will be announced next month. It is the First Recycling reshuffling since a leader suffered a heart attack. Changing times for the supper claimed king of beers. Budweiser will embark any Marketing Strategy designed to inspire 21 to 27 euros to grab a bud. The clydesdales will stay in the stables unamerican. Demographic charted demographic have never tried budweiser. Read this book by Tom Doctoroff. The horses have been around since 1885. What is this pressure to dump a heritage jayz in all that is fine, but desperation a getting 22 year olds . It is a bad desperation. When we have an icon, we evolve it and make it contemporary, bring it along with the times, but to just run away from who we are and what our identity is, is suicide. It is like cocacola dropping the polar bear. It is worse. It is like cocacola dropping the shape of its bottle. You dont do that. Johns desk joins us this morning. Heineken, they have not screwed this up, have a . For somebody that is half dutch, i thought heineken was kind of skunky. Disagreeant to explicitly and television with hans humes, but heineken is a very powerful brand and getting stronger and stronger because it means something to people. It is about opening your world. When consumers drink it, they have an experience. I think the ad campaigns through some of the soccer tournaments have been really, really engaging. The way they pitch it in the United States, that a very solid you are not allowed to say advertising anymore. Oh, my god. Here at bloomberg surveillance. We go to a woman who has not drunk a beer since she was 12 years old, Olivia Sterns. Vodka. I dont think beer. I am probably more likely to drink boxed wine than budweiser. I wondered if i was breaking a sanction the other day. This weekend, no question about it, the russian beer is wounded. Olivia, you see it here. You read this cover to cover. I did. Inflation on the loose. The economy is limping as bridge moves to just 80 per barrel. Can russian banks survive this kind of pain . Were managing director joining us, one of russias largest thanks. This bank is not under sanctions. We should point that out. He joins us live. Good morning. Thank you for joining us. We know the kremlin has built up this war chest of foreign reserves to protect themselves in times of crisis. How much longer can the russian economy weather the storm . Reckon it would not be a big problem for the russian economy to hold on for a year or two. Understand, finance ministers [indiscernible] low this year partially too oral prices and another comes from losses due to sanctions. The central bank is spending heavily to try to intervene in the currency markets. Can the Russian Central Bank save the ruble . I think it is been pretty successful in the past two weeks. Sevenly like six or [indiscernible] the ruble has declined by about 30 , but basically, i think the worst is over for now. Max, this is hans humes you are involved in the russian markets. What are you seeing in terms of the investment sort of activities of your rushing clients . Are using the russian institutions putting money back into the equity and maybe the fixed income markets for russian assets . Sayo be honest, i would most people are sitting on the sidelines, the situation as we understand, very unpredictable. Not only due to sanctions, but many of the global developments. Ould not say the russians we dont see much new money coming into the equity markets, either. We will leave it there, max. Thank you. Sorry, i butchered your name the first time. Russia, and over the weekend, i refuse to believe economic consequences dont work. Went to the economic realities click in for mr. Payton p utin . Makes variances, he will become reactive. When . He is motivated very much by diplomacy diplomat and politics. Economic pressures he feels indirectly, that what he exerting is very direct and oldschool. Whate story last week was he decided to do was initiate the socalled structural reforms. Yeah, but i think the other thing is, he was moving tanks across the border into the ukraine before all of a sudden, the sit down and start negotiating for some or stability. He cannot afford to do what he is doing militarily. Body other hand, he is being very oldschool russian in terms of securing the borders and exerting some global influence. Clocks in terms of an oldschool russian, Vladimir Putin is fairly popular in china, isnt that right, Tom Doctoroff . At least on social media, the chinese really admire Vladimir Putin. The chinese like it when somebody can stick it in the eye of the United States. On the other hand, they know he is not good for stability. They know his economic model doesnt work. The chinese ultimately are relentless pragmatist. That they were taken when the apex conference in beijing, did he make a big show of putting on the code for the first lady of china . A lot of people thought that was one gesture too far. I think it was a little inappropriate, and a lot of people did not like it when they cross that line. By being chivalrous . It was shown for us that was a little too constructed for that occasion. Lets go back to the market realities. When does putin i refuse to believe there is not an impasse . You could think he is blinking now. I think some of us were concerned when theyre coming across the border with the tanks iev was going to start moving on the east and you would get a real hot war. I actually checked in with max to find out what he thought because his contacts in moscow are very good. He was saying, no, this is to stabilize things in negotiations. Can i ask a naive question . Sure. Arent his actions showing desperation . It is interesting. His leverage probably was highest a few months ago with Falling Oil Prices, an economy that has no manufacturing capacity. Putin has to do something now. You can always move to london, olivia. Has that changed with sanctions . Of heard prices for homes are slightly softer. Ans, where are you placing your bets . Are you still betting on russia . We only started putting money to work in russia about a week ago in bonds, equities . Mainly in bonds, not because there is screaming value, but it has gone now pretty far, pretty fast. The spreads of white and out. There was some decent investment opportunities. Im not sure if their longterm or shortterm opportunities. They got shorted this week. The buffalo sabres. The capitals lost to the buffalo sabres. Did they . He doesnt backcheck. He does a lot of other things well. Show you somewill surprising ways emerging markets are outperforming the developed markets in her signal best chart, next. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, bloomberg surveillance. Week,ight plan for this monday, tuesday, wednesday, Olivia Sterns will go through the nasdaq in times square. We say good morning to all of you. On her way to jfk were she will sit for 14 hours on wednesday night waiting for her flight. Joe weisenthal will be with me on friday. Stay with us all through the week on bloomberg surveillance. Lets do a single best chart. This is a snapshot comparing markets. Markets with young, see generally rising income, wealth, in turn spending and investment. Look in the middle. Edging emerging markets out the developed markets when it comes to gdp when measured by purchasing power. 51 edge to 49 . Will you look at the bottom of the chart . Explain that. Equity market capitalizations. The developed market holds 80 of global we could spend the entire rest of the hour on this one chart. Someone just fell off their chair in the control room. Getting back to culture and capitalism are related, yet ask about the bottom line. Bring the chart back up again. Ultimately, what makes for an efficient dynamic economy . Ofs is not just a question population, not even just a question of growth rates. It ultimately is a question of innovation and the ability to reinvent itself for a new era. You look ats, as our emerging markets with david chama really and his leadership, emerging markets is the future. Will we have a sophisticated bond and equity market in asia, in eastern europe, and in the areas of africa . Very good question. Development of domestic markets, whether they be equity or fixed income markets, really has to do with the political stability, the cultural element, but also just the development of im sorry, legal infrastructure and foreignexchange. If you have countries that use Monetary Policy to do value your main competitive, you create a lot of instability. The rule of law just snapped into existence. Bottomup can we make that the end of the year signal best chart . We have a whole list of candidates. Takes to up, uber twitter to make amends. Will it be enough . Well ask our guest host Tom Doctoroff. This is bloomberg surveillance. It is her fault, courtney scott, it is entirely her fault how lousy travel is on wednesday. Oh here is her fault, laguardia is her fault, penn station is her fault. To make it worse, were expecting up to eight inches of snow. We are . Along the northeast i95 corridor. Our twitter question pick your poison, everyone. Lets start with one in bank of america to separate the jobs of chairman and ceo according to the wall street journal. The sisters of charity are among investors opposed to the decision to give Brian Moynihan the post come october or back in october, i should say. Possible showdown between the bank and some investors this spring. The price of gasoline in the u. S. Reaching its lowest point. It fell a little more than . 10 to 2. 84. Based on data from about 2500 filling stations. Prices are . 41 lower than a year ago. Actress meryl streep among a group of honorees will receive the president ial medal of freedom at a white house their money later today. Other recipients include music icon stevie wonder. The metals will be awarded to three civil rights workers were. Urdered it is the highest civilian honor. Those are your top headlines. Isnt it like eating being knighted . Same same. Our guest host is Tom Doctoroff. Tom, youre here in support of your new book twitter is not a strategy. When we talk about top is like uber, twitter is the strategy. The ceo is apologizing on twitter. For Senior Executives remarks that the company could use its tracking technology to keep track of journalists uber are critical ofs service. Is that appropriate . Twitter is a tool of dialogue. If you think about what uber doesnt have, doesnt have a message. It doesnt have a way of managing within a framework how it comes off to consumers, and that needs to be top down. So twitter is bottomup. When asked people what uber stands for, other than the service, people dont know. And that leads leaves uber vulnerable. What should they be doing . Apologizing for arrogance. The topdown, needs to define what uber is an white has a longterm role in peoples landscape. When you look at ubers come it is uber technology. It is a bit misleading. He seen a lot of competition as a result. Uber technology doesnt tell the story of topdown strategy should. I dont think they have told her story at all. Theyre basically thinking the resume hers will liberate themselves and that will be the future of it. But when you leave everything in the hands of technology and consumers, things can get messy. It is to be both topdown and bottomup. Google has a huge billboard coming up. Google is your ultimate 21st Century Power brand. It still hasnt defined its message. The ways in which it is market itself are fairly unconventional. They offer free uber writes, ondemand ice cream talks trucks, bring over animals that you can cuddle with for 15 minutes. It is not exactly the topdown strategy you are referring to. Not quite. These are what we would call stunts in the marketing world. They barely ruled build longterm equity. Higher price, which means profit that is sustainable on a longterm basis . I dont think uber is setting itself up for that. Doesnt show up come is complaining on twitter a strategy for me . That is not a strategy, that is a release. That is a bilateral engagement with a brand. Thanksgiving travel week is coming up. People measurable as chicago here will take the creditor oh here will take to twitter to complain. Is that a strategy . Using social media to have a dialogue with consumers is very an rtant, particularly in era consumers are the british by technology. But it is only part of the strategy. What this book twitter is not a strategy is trying to say, you need to align topdown and bottomup so they reinforce each other. We have another shameless plug . Ding ding ding ding din. There we go you talk about what chinese consumers want. How they make distinctions between foreign brands and local brands to pending on whether it is, inside her home or outside their home. Talk about that a little bit. All of the Luxury Brands are on board to try to get these chinese consumers dont go, yet havent figured out the distinction. The golden rule of marketing in china is that people will be willing to pay a big Price Premium for anything consumed outside of the house. That is anything from a cup of Starbucks Coffee to Luxury Brands, because they project identity. Their useful for face, and face isnt just dignity. Face is a tool, a ford advancement. People will invest in their face. Like itbook cover looks is light, fluffy garbage. This is an incredibly serious book about messaging i would prefer you would call it tongueincheek as opposed to garbage. The answer is a really important statement on brand building and retaining brands across time. What is the best practice to retain a brand . The best practice is to have something that we call, and the sounds conceptual, a consistent brand idea. A brand isnt just a brand. What does microsoft do . What does microsoft do to restore apple is the brand of the month. Microsoft needs to know saw you what is it . The Value Proposition is commercial. It needs to pull apart the branding of what it is doing for commercial and for consumers. Any staff of portfolio strategy, in my opinion. Asia, alibaba, is it chinese . Im fascinated with a guy living in shanghai, what he things about i dont give a damn about alibaba. Quintessential emperor, a hero. Yes reconfirmed dish reconfigured he has reconfigured. What is his relationship with the Chinese Government . It is certainly not distant. Is a giantt in china cage. It exists by hint of patriarch benevolence. Hans humes, is china distressed . It isnt distressed yet. It is interesting because we havent office in singapore and we have an office in singapore in two key people there have incredibly diversion views on where china is going. One of our analysts is convinced theres a transition going on and the other is saying that china what do you think . I tend to be bearish. , hans will stop Tom Doctoroff thank you for being with us. This is bloomberg surveillance. Doubt, go to overtime. Mightted states in iran extend discussions. Markets churn. Well. S churn as traveling froms the Lower East Side to the upper east side. A holiday shortened workweek. Bloomberg surveillance, live from new york. Monday, november 24. Joining me, scarlet fu and Olivia Sterns. Lets get to our top headlines. Negotiations over irans nuClear Program may go into overtime. John kerry and his counterpart talking about extending the deadline. Trying to prevent iran from developing nuclear weapons, iran wants sanctions eased. If there is an agreement, the president says he is confident of congressional improvement. Congressional approval. If we reach a deal that is verifiable and assures iran does not have breakout capacity, i can persuade congress it is the right thing to do. Has said its program is only being used for peaceful purposes. Republicans step up their attack on president obamaS Immigration order. Ted cruz says the next president can and post his loan his own laws. 5 Million People here illegally, he is promising to give work authorizations. He has gotten in the job of counterfeiting immigration papers. There is no Legal Authority. Solution,ys he has a the senate should refuse to confirm any of the president s nominees except crucial National Security positions. Government restrictions on commercial drones likely to be tougher than expected. The faa will require operators to have a license. Drone flights will be limited to Daylight Hours. Would have to stay inside of the person at the controls. Spies may be deploying the most sophisticated spyware. The target, russian and saudi telecom. The malware is probably being run by a western spy agency. Symantec says it is more advanced than the malware developed by is really and u. S. Intelligence that targeted iran s nuClear Program. A lot of discussion. Did you see the catch last night . Cowboys,s versus the tomanning to a dell odell becker. What a catch. You need to see this catch this morning. It is truly extraordinary. One of irvin tweeted, the greatest he has ever seen. The giants and up losing to the cowboys, as they are want to do in 2014. Some breaking news on united technologies. Louis chenevert is retiring as a ceo and chairman. They have elected a nonexecutive chairman. Ut having a big change at the top. Louis chenevert has been at the helm for five years. One of the Great Success stories. For every six mentions of general electrics, maybe someone mentions united technologies. Portfolioou chris, manager, on the industrial might of america. These industrial conglomerates, can they work . Some can. Ge whonet folks like are going to wear the puck is going to be. Modern technologies and leaving beyond things burdened by regulations. Otis elevators and sikorsky helicopters. Can you make money on cool . On cool and uncool. The Energy Renaissance has brought back the manufacturing renaissance to the middle of the country. The underestimation, are we on the dawn of being a Little Switzerland . That thought had not crossed my mind. One thing is the price of oil and gas, now below three dollars a barrel. What do you think that means for industrials . Are you concerned there will be less capex, bad news for industrials. Capex is about 5 or 6 for the whole country. If you look at the tailwind caused by low Energy Prices for steel and aluminum, it is quite a bit a boon. You are all thursday. Opec meetings. I cannot believe they are not going to announce a cut. Whether they are going to be able to go through with it is a question. They are split right now . Forecasters are split 5050 on whether or not there will be eight cut a cut. I cannot believe they will sit there and be complacent about our lifeblood. To frame the surveillance Phil Verleger looking for 60 a barrel and ofteone like helima cr different. There is a divide about how much relevance opec has, dont they need russia . The question is where is the new oil coming from . Unconventional sources, fracking. If you get oil at 50 a barrel. Fracking starts shutting down, it is expensive. Deal, whatt an iran is it do for the price of oil . It is negative. You left sanctions and have more brent on the market. You drive the price of brent down. How much . 5 a barrel. If you let the libya supply go on, you have even more in the market. We were wrong a year ago on Interest Rates. What is the thing that keeps you up at night . It is easy to say Interest Rates, but that was so 2014. Europe. The softness in europe does not seem to be going away. Mario draghi seems to be getting the qe bug, we will see if that works. Olivia, what is the reading . The fear is that europe becomes japan. Worrying about deflation. How much do you think Falling Oil Prices are changing the math . Filing oil prices are a boon for oil. It is not making it harder to reach inflation targets . Absolutely. Stimulates the economy. Good german numbers this morning. Good expectation numbers. Grisanti, the effervescence in midtown manhattan. Im afraid to extrapolate across the nation. A 3 economy. We are doing well affordrockefellers cant to stay in rockefeller center. I thought you were going to say the rockefellers are getting out of oil. They are moving out of rockefeller because the rent is too high. What about keystone now that the senate voted down the pipeline . I think the final chapter is yet to be written. It will be written quickly. Production will be higher year after year for the next five years. What does Falling Oil Prices do for the companies you cover . How does it change how they behave . We have like the refiners for a while. Companies like airliners benefit from lower prices. For the first time in half a decade, we are buying Oil Service Companies. We do not think the price will go down so far they will stop drilling. What is your belief on equities into the beginning of the year . Are you fully invested, are you reticent . We are fully invested. I think the economy is finally what are you doing wednesday . In the snow in new york city. Up to 8 inches. Im celebrating my 25th wedding anniversary. Congratulations. Tom keene will be operating his drone around central park. Our twitter question of the day. Are you taking planes, trains, or automobiles this thanksgiving . Tweet us bsurveillance. Will be in town. Chris might take a taxi or uber. Blocks. Taking uber 6 the travel week of the year. Victimup, we speak to a from travelocity on your miserable wednesday. Stay with us, worldwide. Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Whole turkey. Organic, free range, 42 pounds. You can go to whole foods yourself. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. We are stressing about what we are going to do on thursday. None of us cook. Are you cooking . I put it in the oven for four hours. We are back with Chris Grisanti. You just began establishing positions and Oil Service Companies like halliburton and baker hughes. Do you anticipate more m a. I do. If the halliburton deal is allowed to pass iv regulators without too much investment, i think you will see a number of m a deals. Are you talking about transformative deal m aking and we are seeing Smaller Companies saying can we make it on our own. These are iconic american names. Why are they sitting around saying can we make it . The use of halliburton, the 600 pound gorilla. You have the Smaller Companies and they are wondering can they compete. Halliburton says its purchase was not driven by oil prices. There is reason to believe oil prices will drive more consolidation and spinoffs. Halliburton is also playing what we believe, you can have low oil prices for a long time because fracking does not work at 50 oil. They are betting this is temporary. When it is 100 again we will really had a good deal. Why dont you think we are going to see small u. S. Producers close up . We might, but that will drive the price up. Tell me about m a in the next year. Does the appetite continue . I think it does. Unless you see higher rates, you have a strong economy, folks who cannot grow the top line. They will do it by combination. How about the combination how about the appetite for energy mlps. Of oilong as the price does not continue to plummet, they are good deals. They act like utilities and as rates go up im not sure if they are the best investment. A lot of them are pretty levered. They are not always in pipeline or storage. Itwe own a refinery mlp, goes up and down but dividends can be large. Chris grisanti, our guest host. Coming up, robert of the wutang clan. Good morning, everyone. Good monday morning on this holiday workweek. Lets get to our top headlines. A faithbased Shareholder Group wants banc of america to chairman andjob of ceo. Opposing the decision to give Brian Monahan the chairman post. A possible showdown between the bank and some investors. A gallon of regular gas fell to 2. 84, according to a survey based on data from 2500 filling stations. Than a year ago. Meryl streep among a group of honorees who will receive the president ial medal of freedom. Posthumous medals will be awarded to civil rights workers murdered in 1954. The nations highest civilian honor. Over these errors on a bridge and through the over the v bridge and through the lincoln tunnel. Your most hectic trip since 2007. Million americans set to travel at least 50 miles. More folks on the road than last year. We are anticipating a large letter system hitting much of the country. Didaw that last year, it impact delays. 3 gasoline . More people are on the roads and having confidence. The gasower prices at pump. It is a perfect storm. Everything has been a wonderful cliche. What is different this year . Airlines are planning to cash in their largest amount in ancillary fees. You may not be paying more in airfare, you might be paying more in things like checked baggage. Jetblue has jumped on the bandwagon and is charging. Southwest is the last airline to not charge for that. Priority boarding, phone reservations, snacks on jetblue yesterday. They are still giving you free wifi and free tv. Dont you find it outrageous that they are charging for blankets and pillows . They do not do it for redeye flights. They do it for day flights. This is a domestic holiday, thanksgiving. No destination is more or less attractive, is there . It is not like new york city will see more influence or outflow. Most major hub airports are swarmed with people heading home. People are going home to see their family and friends. Is plan need to do extra time to get to the airport. At jfk it could take 15 minutes to walk from the gate to the terminal. An additional factory have to plan. Bloomberg rankings compiled data about the most frustrating airport. Laguardia is the most frustrating airport, followed by newark, all three new york metropolitan airports made it. There are apps that can help. Gate guru will give you a map and help you navigate the airport more smoothly. There are other spps there are other apps that help you find things to do at the airport. Making the most of the time that you are there. Do they want me to buy a ticket on travelocity or directly . Who is they . The airlines. They just want you to travel. People are more confident than ever in planning ahead. I disagree with that. It is absolutely miserable. Nobody wants to travel. Maybe in business class. It is appalling. What are the alternatives . It is appalling and civilian, i had my shampoo taken away. For for thataid shampoo a good pair of Noise Cancellation headphones is the only thing you need. On the flip, we also surveyed the top airlines. Lets show the viewers. The number one least frustrating, Vancouver International airport. You have to leave the country to find peace at the airport. Portland international, the west coast and northwest. Theirtrafficers licking chops. There are more opportunities delays, plan to hours ahead for domestic and three hours ahead for international. What does canada get right . Customer service is really important. I fly air canada and have had fantastic experiences. 80 fewer passengers. Our twitter question of the day. Tweet us. Are you taking planes, trains, or automobiles . Courtney, how about you . An automobile, i do not go farther than an hour or two from my home in new york city. I do not want to face a parking lot on the highway. Thank you so much, Senior Editor at travelocity. The deadline on the talks on iran. It may be extended. Secretary kerry talking on this. A complexity of debate. Phil mattingly will join us from washington. Stay with us worldwide. Good morning, it is bloomberg surveillance. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am scarlet fu. Our top headlines this morning. Time running out on negotiations with iran over its nuClear Program. John kerry and his counterpart are talking about extending the deadline. The u. S. , russia, china, and others are trying to prevent iran from developing nuclear wantss. Iran sanctions eased. Samsung getting ready to restructure as earnings slump and market shares decrease. The changes will be announced next month. The first restructuring since the family patriarch suffered a heart attack. Changing times for the king of beers. Budweiser will embark on a new Marketing Strategy designed to to pick upyearold a bud. Target of the demographic has never tried budweiser. This matters now to Christopher Grisanti. 8 years on from the financial collapse. The too big to fails each have their own story. Ge money is now synchrony. Heres the idea. You have got something, rebrand it. They will spin synchrony off. Theyve sold 19 to the public. When they get Regulatory Approval they are going to spend the rest off so it will be freely trading. It is a company most of your viewers have never heard of. 24 billion market cap coming out of ge. It is flying under the radar. They do a lot of retail credit. If you buy a lot of furniture, you can set up a synchrony account. Brooks brothers credit card but it is synchrony putting the money out. They do privatelabel credit cards. Was on talkingf about twitter and how we need to respect all things. Square, all this fancy stuff. You are telling meet we are going back to visa and mastercard. Visa and mastercard are not really old, they are new. If you are 25 years old you are three times more likely to use a credit card that if you are 55 years old. In the u. S. You use it 70 of the time, and germany only 35 . Financials were mispriced five years ago when they were selling for a third of book value. They are back to book. The only financials we own our indy credit card digital pay area. This is the scene of the optimists on big banks. Brian moynihan in the news today. Of cash andke use apply it to shareholders. Do you disagree . I do not. I think it is a matter of what you are paying for the stocks. We do not think they are great bargains. They are overbooked. They will make a market return and maybe less. Nifty 50 today . The Tech Companies that get it right apple, google, even amazon. Is facebook in that . I dont think so, facebook needs to prove itself, as alibaba will need to. What is your level of confidence in Dividend Income growth for blue chips below the nifty 50. Value and distribution of cash to shareholders. The question is what is inexpensive enough to make it worthwhile . What is inexpensive . We like these and mastercard even though they are not the cheapest stocks. They had terrific growth. What are the other sectors . For the first time, we are buying oil service stocks. People are so negative about the price of oil. We are not you are not buying downstream refiners . Know, we have found those and done well. Oil service, Great Companies are down 25 . We do not think there capex budgets are going to get cut that much. 401k, how much should someone be in equities after missing the bull market . The other question is bonds, i would not put hardly anything in bonds. To believels game 1. 5 Interest Rates are here to stay. We are in a period like the late 1990s. The market is not cheap but it is not particularly expensive. Equities are the path of least resistance. Chris christie auntie with us as we look forward to 2015 what a spirit in midtown manhattan. Equities the path of least resistance, futures higher by 5 points. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im scarlet fu with tom keene and Olivia Sterns. The deadline is hours away. Foreign ministers are talking in vienna, trying to strike a nuclear deal with iran. Or go into overtime. Phil mattingly joins us from washington, d. C. Weve been here before. Looking towards an extension with iran. What is different about this round . How close to a deal are we . Been an expectation on the u. S. Side that for any type of longterm agreement to occur it would have to happen against that deadline. That is why officials have been pushing so hard. The p five plus one officials have come to vienna to try to get this done. We are on the verge of an extension ofof an talks. They are not going to be able to lock down a deal today. What is unclear according to diplomats is what those talks, what the extension will entail. Talks were extended until today with an agreement someiran would dilute Nuclear Material and freeze operations. What actually happens next will be very important politically in iran and in the United States. If we do get a deal, we heard the Republican Opposition oppose anything president obama puts ford in the wake of the immigration executive action. What are you hearing on capitol hill . Would congress support a deal if we could get one . It is going to be tough, particularly with Senate Republicans taking control. This is not a partisan issue. A lot of powerful democrats, most notably bob menendez in the senate, who have problems with the steps the administration has taken. Their view is more sanctions in a position to beat weaker in negotiations. The Obama Administration eased up some sanctions with the july agreement. There is concern that the administration will agree to ease more sanctions. Republicans will simply not let that happen. There are democrats as well. What is going to be interesting is over the next 48 hours to 72 hours, will they give the president space or are they going to come down hard and try to plan something for the lameduck session . Infighting continues, you are looking at a white house desperate to make a move. At least according to Jeffrey Goldberg at bloomberg view. Times, theay, at Obama Administration and allies have appeared to be more desperate for a deal than the iranians. It isnt the west that is suffering. Knowingve any sense of whether we are in the fourth inning or the eighth inning of negotiations . Right now, with an extension ly, it looks like the fourth inning. Anytime you talk to diplomats who had been involved in things like this in the past, you never know it is going to happen until it happens. It could seem like there are issues. And then all of a sudden it just clicks. What jeffs point is, he is tapping into what a lot of us here hear on a regular basis. For foreignpolicy legacy purposes, this administration thinks an ability to denuclearize iran is crucial to their legacy. They want that. Phil mattingly, thank you so much, from washington. Chris christie auntie with us Chris Grisanti with us. York postw has a page on the construction sites in new york city. This goes back to america and industry. This is good for the economy. It is terrific. It is tough on young folks getting out of college. It is all unaffordable. It is amazing. Interesting point. We talk so often about the emerging markets and how much construction there is. Some cities in the u. S. , that is happening as well. The american economy. Can we be optimistic . A glutenfree surveillance. Planes,ou taking trains, automobiles . Tweet us. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im scarlet fu with tom keene and Olivia Sterns. Activists won the bidding war to buy allergan. Wall street riveted by the deal, its key orchestrators as well. They will be joining betty liu later. One week since the deal was announced, the 66 billion earthquake in the pharma wor ld you wonder whether the ceos of feltgan and actavis pressure given all the mergers we saw in the pharmaceutical industry. They are speaking out, the and billth valeant ackman. So many tension points to getting the deal done. It is not over. They got to go through the regulators and look at how many additional jobs are going to be cut. Theyve got to look at merging these two units and what are the big issues ahead. You s grisantit Chris Grisanti, you do not own either of these. The republican held Congress Might help if we get a deal on tax. Al strikes me as an 11th hour deal. I would be curious to ask did you cross the ts and dot the is, what was left out. All this talk that allergan was shopping itself to sanofi and others. Did they feel that they were doing everything to avoid being bought by valeant. Make sure botox is uninterrupted. A question for Chris Grisanti. Doesyou look at activism, carl icahn get a Christmas Card from grisanti . The Treasury Department gets a Christmas Card. Card withsend out a the efficient market frontier . That would be counterproductive. Stopped . His allergan also makes breast implants. And sea breeze products. One note about the inversion idea. Tavis moved their headquarters overseas. The fact that they were able to save hundreds of is thatints in taxes, allowed them to have more cash on hand to be able to conduct these mergers. Actavisvaleant and have been accused of being roll up shops. Benjamin lawsky will be joining us. The new sheriff of wall street. We will be right back on bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Ome confusion earlier we welcome all of you on radio worldwide. Olivia, there are reports of snow. Rob at Bloomberg Radio is phenomenal. Hes adamant nobody knows now it is a mix. A wintry mix, yeah. There are other reports that we could get 8 inches of snow. Some models that tom keene does not believe in. I believe increased determined to i n christy turlington. Were buffalo, residents warned by Governor Andrew Cuomo to prepare for possible evacuation. Temperatures are expected to approach 60 degrees. ; feet if so. Republicans escalating their offensive against president obamaS Immigration order. Senator ted cruz says the next president can impose his own laws. A solution, ass long as the immigration order is an affect the senate should refuse to confirm any nominees except crucial National Security positions. Barnes and noble has a few gift ideas. The chain hopes to cash in on black friday by offering autographed books. Include george w. Bush, hillary clinton, and dan brown. The. 5 million copies will be retailuted at 650 plus outlets. It is amazing how the kids love to go to barnes noble. They disappear. To bringtters like their charges to barnes noble during storytime. One sports report. Off track because of the snow. Bills tonight out of detroit. 7 00 p. M. They did not have anyone to shovel the snow. 60 degrees in buffalo today. A lot of water. Lets talk banking and the distortion of this years no one knows where we will be in 12 months. All we know is that Christopher Grisanti is beholden to yellendraghikurodacarney for his portfolio. As long as they do not get in the way and keep money relatively easing. We have seen u. S. Manufacturing come back. We think europe will come back if mario draghi does the right thing. Volatility is a good thing for people with more patience. How do you use volatility to your advantage . We have not had a lot of it until last month. That is when we bought synchrony, American Express those stocks were down. Do you see foam on my mouth . The botox the botox is over here. The headline i cannot make sense of the spanish debt. The 10 year yield below 2 . Unemployment north of 24 . Forsay you are waiting mario draghi to do the right thing. What does printing money do when borrowing costs are the slow . We are pushing on a string in europe and in the u. S. Until about the last six months ago here. Reason spanish debt is so low, they think mario draghi will start buying back debt. Assuming he doesnt, we are talking about japan. If you get no growth, spain is japan. The hope is that you get it is just a marginal increase. You could go to 30 unemployment. I just put out on Bloomberg Radio plus, a chart of spain. Backtoback charts. Here is spain. From 7. 5 to under 2 . A year and a half ago, spanish 10 year yields were trading worth of 7 . Is this all because of draghi . I agree. The chart of the year. Congratulations to jason trennert. From the draghi speech. Bank of japan explodes with stimulus while europe has restrictive. It is going to move into direction of qe. Do you think that is inevitable . I do. The only thing worse than 7 yield is. 5 yield. You are thinking there is no way out. In the u. S. I would rather have 3. 5 tenure bond yields than 1. . Theow that you have peoples bank of china adding to stimulus with the fed moving in the opposite direction, does that make up for what the fed is taking away . I hope so. I think a game changer extent not garner as much news as it ought have, the chinese Interest Rate drop. That will be good for commodity prices. Mining and oils . Not yet. But at least they put a floor under the price. I dont think they are Good Investments but at least they will not go bankrupt. Is it the start of more Interest Rate cuts out of china. I think so. Hopefully you are throwing all the coal into the boiler and we will start getting movement. Lets get to our agenda. Olivia, get us started. Talks in iran Foreign Ministers in talks in vienna trying to reach nuclear deal. The most likely outcome will be overtime, an extension of talks. Interesting factors going into this. Is iran feeling more pressure because oil prices are falling . How long is extended . Good question. We dont know. Then they do a shoot out . No. They are in desperate mode. Think about what a different opec meeting it would be if we did had a deal. I will be working thursday. Nobody is working, you cannot come in. I had a shameless plug. Coming in, argan ceo allergan acvatis ceoott and will be joining betty liu. This is a deal that got pushed together pretty quickly. How about you, tom . It is thanksgiving already. I look at the economy. The bellwether is how sold off they are for 300 pound turkeys. I do not have one. I dont know. It is a boom economy. People are doing turkey, turkey, turkey. Turkey prices are up. Going into wednesday with a 3 economy. Things are looking up. My sister cooks our turkey. Are you long in Airline Stocks . We are very long. You look at devaluations and they are not extended at all. People hated them so much for not being able to make the cost of capital and now we are talking about 50 billion in fees. You can hate them unless you own equities. Hasnt the easy money been made . Probably come away are not against making hard money. Still money to be made. American airlines can earn money with low oil prices. Change been lets get to our twitter question of the day. Are you taking trains, planes, or automobiles. Here were some of the answers. Automobile. That sounds painful. My deepest sympathies. How about this one . Hosting. That is where i am. You save yourself hassle. I am taking a golf cart to a hopefully deserted course. Very good. A curmudgeon, i think. My friend at fox business has not cooked in 14 years. It buy pre made food, heat up. Say, i worked hours on this. I did not realize there was a term for that, plattering. She has not cooked in 14 years. It is amazing. Thank you, Chris Grisanti. A lot of wisdom. Stay with us, that it lived with an important interview next. Good morning. Good morning, it is monday, november 20 fourth. We are live from bloomberg headquarters. You are in the loop. We have a great show ahead of you this monday morning. One week exactly since that blockbuster megadeal. The earthquake of the deal between allergan and activists. I am joined exclusively in the next hour. Stay tuned as we speak out for the first time on this deal. First, a look at our top story this morning. Senator john kerry has been talking with iran extending negotiations past tonights deadline. The deal obama says will go along. I am confident that if we reach a deal that is verifiable and ensures that iran does not have capacity, not only can i persuade congress, but i can persuade the people it is the right thing to do