You will get eurozone services, that is the final one. Daimler is up. So it is all about the ecb and the fed. Those are going to be the key issues, not the fed but nonfarm payrolls. Daimler came out with their view on the truck business. Truck business, earnings will be higher. Globally, the market will be flat relative to last year. And european markets will still be at the lower end. It is not playing ball. There really is not. Profit will be hit by 35 million. Beatty. Ye on balfour this is a big Engineering Company and the u. K. Metro, the german retailer, has come out and said, no longer opposed to the sale of media. They are waiting for the ceo to come out with a statement. Those stocks are not going to open. Sometimes you cannot get it to do what you wanted to do. With momentum in the dollar, 79. 96. There is an article this morning that dollar bulls are practicing stealth capitulation. Overall analysts are lowering their dollar target for the year at. Barclays made the point that it is time for the dollar to shine because even though yellen says no rates, the Unemployment Rate dropping with levison and uncomfortable position would leave us in an uncomfortable position. On what mario draghi says, you will see the spikes and drops. Nonevent. Ts a their words. It will take on sterilized asset purchases q. E. A dramatic move in the fourth quarter. For eurodollar. Aussie dolar is moving lower. If you have not got a pea shooter, a job will do. Countdow lets stay with the markets theme. As we head into the second half of the year, we are joined by bill blaine. So as we look into the second half of the year, we sit with this low volatility environment, record highs on some equity indices. Where are you expecting things to head in the second half . Lets get out my crystal ball. We are in for an interesting time. If i was to read all the analysts comments i have seen talking about stock markets, they are all incredibly negative. Everyone has got the sense that the stock markets are preparing for some big shift downwards. Yet today in the bond market we are probably going to see that confirmation that employment growth remains strong and stable. We will get plus 200, as everyone is expecting. We are beginning to come out of the kind of phony war we have seen in the first half of the year where we saw bonds much stronger, contrary to expectations. The taper having very little effect, and stock markets the gains were last year. What we saw this year is markets up a little bit not enormously. A lot of down and out. What are we going to get the second half . Asuspect were going to see stronger economy led by the u. S. And partly the u. K. We are going to see the threat of rates rising, which will continue to impact bonds. What do we have for stocks . It is going to take a lot for investors to get over the feeling that stocks are truly priced. And there is a lot of frothy activity. If you look at m a. We could see more difficult conditions and stocks and a difficult bond market. Do you think markets participants inc. That Central Banks will not let asset prices and stock prices fall that far . If they do, that is a worrying level of confidence to have. Central banks are forcing investors to look at stock markets returns. And bond yields. It will be very dangerous to be involved in bonds. By that treasury, and guilt. And gilts. Everyone is worried about the effect of taper. At the same time we will have issues like the japanese pension spendinging in and enormous amounts of money on foreign asset which will partly be stocks but a large part will going to treasuries. That will be part of trying to drive down the yen. One of the stories of the next half is going to be the dollar. We were you guys were talking earlier about the where the euro is going . After draghi spoke last month, the euro remained high. It has to fall. Higher than it was at the time of his last speech. Exactly. How is he going to do that . Who knows . It might be more in the hands of the fed. I suspect him doing nothing and letting credibility slip a little bit is one of the factors that brings down the euro. A correction in the second half . No. Torrid conditions of the bond market as we start to see better economic numbers coming out. We will see that today with the early employment number. I do think there is a lot of fear and concern about asset bubbles. But i suspect the stock markets are still a place to be selective and emerging markets, they are going to be benefiting from global recovery. But prices are getting very tight. I think there has been announced a frothiness. Be selective. Good message. Thank you very much. Here is a look at what else is coming up on on the move. Details from draghi. Will he give investors more clues . The former french president calls charges against an grotesque and scandalous. A bloomberg exclusive hear from the siemens ceo about losing the bidding war for alstrom. As we had to break, you can find me and twitter. Im annaedwards news. This is on the move. Streaming on your phone and on amazon fire tv. Here is one stop on the on the move. Beatty has said it has seen a further worsening of its electrical engineering, part of the uk construction business. That news not well received. That stock trading down 14 . Lets move on. Investors have a lot to watch today. Mario draghi will speak in the u. S. Releases its jobs report. Manus cranny has around him. Lets kick it off with draghi. More detail on how some of the previously announced policies are going to be enacted . Absolutely. It is no longer a discussion about rates. It is a discussion about giving confidence. How long will rates remain in the zero targets own . Zone . Target how confident can they be that the ecb is making confident steps towards q. E. , which is what everybody is expecting and demanding. It is about rates. Where are they . Lending. Tltlo. Why would banks take longterm money from the ecb . They can borrow unlimited amounts of money. What is the incentive to take that 400 billion from the European Central bank. I think mario draghi is in listening mode. His last message to the market for all practical purposes, we have reached the lower and they have stayed low longer than forcing. June 21. Well, extension is unlimited cash is a signal that the duration of rates. There is a little bit of distraction in terms of what he means. Lend money for four years. And you look at what the market thinks is going to happen. A survey. We like those. 30 of our survey say rate hike in 2015. 30 say 2016. 29 say 2017. I will be fascinated to know what bill blain has to say. So that is the state of the play on the ecb. We are listening. Clarity is what we need. Lets switch to the other side of the atlantic. We get the jobs report out of the u. S. Looking for something over 200,000. We are. We had the curtain raiser, the adp, 280,000, the strongest in two years. Gre set up for the jobs reportat. Great set up for the jobs report. It is going to be about the jobless rate. We know the back story and why the jobless rate, 6. 8 , 6. 3 is in focus. What we are hearing is that the amount of money and wages in peoples pockets is going to be important. That is what the fed will look at more strategically. So average earnings will be a key focus, plus. 2 . Wages rising less than inflation. Call it a fusion index. 200,000. The fifth consecutive month above 200,000. That is the best run we have had since 2000. Whether it is a broad based hiri ng recovery story. tis better to hire 100 new people and 100 new people and 100 and companies that it is to hire 100 at one. Back to you. Thank you. Manus cranny. Stay with bloomberg. We will bring you Mario DraghisNews Conference at half past one a clock london time. Bill blain. Onll get your thoughts the cecb. But we will focus on the u. S. The number of jobs increasing. The deceased to be an increasing focus on wage situation there seems to be an increased focus on wage situation. When do we start to see wages picking up with some momentum in the u. S. . This is a critical point. Everyone talks about the payroll. It is the big one, the market is set up for. It is only one tiny part of the equation. Are being the jobs created and what kind of jobs and how does it drive consumption in the economy . One of the big concerns is that you can create to the hundred jobs,nd jobs 200,000 but if they are simply burger flippers on minimum wage, then what does that add to the economy . Then you have to look at what companies are spending. The u. S. Corporate have our own very heavily in the last two years while rates have been load. What they have they done . They have borrowed. Have they gone out and build factories . A few. But most of it has been about buying back stocks or investing in Company Pension schemes. I think that is one of the big concerns markets have. That although the economy looks to be in recovery because jobs are being created, they are very low work. And the productive capacity of the economy remain suspect. This is one of the reason people are talking about 10 the u. S. Start spending money that it does not have on rebuilding infrastructure which might encourage corporate to Start Building new plants . It is a far more complex equation than just fantastic, we created 200,000 more jobs. Which is 200,000 more people with many u. S. Companies are busy buying up european businesses to avoid taking some of the money back home. That is another piece. Lets stick with the macro themes. The conversation about the u. S. And the ecb. No change expected from the ecb today. We are expecting more detail on some of the previously announced policies. What d. C. The strategy for the ecb from what do you see strategy from the ecb fending off the specter of deflation . The european economy already looks like a deflated balloon. There is very little actually happening. Having rates this low is not stimulating. I am very concerned about the markets real think. The market is thinking we will put 400 billion of targeted longterm repos into the market which means all that money for banks. What were they do when they get that money . Are they going to invest in smes in an economy that has flatlined . Or are they going to buy more government bonds . We suspect they will buy more bonds. And this is the real story why we think there is still another 50 basis points in bond yields, even though there are records at record low levels. Right back to the situation where the european sovereign debt crisis started. That is another massive market distortion. It is mostly contained within your. The real issue draghi has to solve is how do you get the euro lowe . Down, thaneuro comes the economies of europe that are struggling with their own currency will not be able to grow exports. Lots to digest. We will get your further thoughts on europe and the european banks. Lets bring you some of our exclusive interview with the siemens ceo. He says he is looking at takeover targets to exploit the u. S. Natural gas frenzy. The company lost its bidding war with ge to snap up alstroms. This as the european economy struggles to rebound. Olivia sterns sat down with the sea means ceo the seimens ceo. We see some areas which are encouraging. I believe europe as a whole has seen the bottom. But the point is, is it too early to call it a recovery . If you how many jobs have you created . How many young people have you employed . I guess europe has a lot to do. Kaeser, the ceo of siemens. Lets talk about some of the sectors you like or do not like. The banking sector, a real focus for you. Very topical whether we are talking about fines from the u. S. Or concerns about the dark horse. When it comes down to looking at european stocks, banks are not in the chocolate. It is as simple as that. We look at the stories. It highlights the risks. 8. 9 billion for being the bank of sudan. Yet, the market has rallied. We still have the same management in place. The developing story in portugal about the difficulties that parents of ban facing. Itu sancto is we have got longterm hangovers about smaller european banks like the coop in the u. K. Or hi in holland. All banks where we have discovered deeprooted mal administration that has been running these institutions for years. They are un reconstructed, even years sinces, 7 the crisis. The ecb is getting ready to shine a light. It will be the usual convoluted mist. Numbers wethink the ran recently with the help of one of the major investment banks, Something Like 400 billion of new equity has been raised by european banks since the start of the crisis. But our feeling is essentially they are unresolved. There are an awful lot of issues. As an investor, why would i buy knowing that the u. S. And european regulators are poised with more investigations . You do not know what is going to with management. You look at the changing market and think, how will these people make money in the future . We buy them because they create volatility. Thank you very much for joining us fro mint partners. Taking stock a bloomberg exclusive. We will talk about how to reform a divided europe and what britains role should be. Coming up on on the move. Welcome back to on the move. The region air is rolling out its new routes between london and the u. S. Is rolling outr its new routes. Our transport correspondent joins us now. Remind us how it is that Norwegian Air has managed to provide this longhaul transatlantic service. They are going down a well trodden path. Laker airways in the 1970s. Norwegian has the dreamliner. They say that is what will make them succeed. They have seven dreamliners. 17 they will get over the next few years. Aese planes are set up in two class configuration. If youre in the backend, you will order food and pay for it. What impact will it have briefly on the existing transatlantic carriers . A fairly small operation at this point. Three flights to new york and two to l. A. And fort lauderdale. Neither executives at virgin or executives at b. A. Are anxious but they are keeping a sharp eye on it. It is low cost. Weve seen what Ryanair Easyjet have done to the shorthaul. Ryanair said in the past that they might be interested, but they need the right place. Michael oleary love to talk about this. Adamantay, they are that ryanair needs the dreamliner to make this work. The waiting list for the dreamliner is enormous. Thank you. We will be back in two minutes. Welcome back to on the move. We are 30 minutes into the trading day. Lets see how things are shaping up. The picture across the equity markets. Things looking positive on the ftse 100 and the dax. The ibex more sluggish this morning. Lets dig deeper into what is happening in the equity markets. Manus . Like magic. Lets have a look at these three stocks. Balfour beatty down. This is a big Engineering Company. They have got a worsening trade performance. Within their engineering business, things are getting worse. Heirs going to knock t profits. They will do asset sales next year to make up for it. Three profit warnings in the past 18 months. They did open a little bit lower. Vw. This is a cracking story. Down 1 . Because the seo at da the ceo at daimler says the company will make a bid for our u. S. Truck business. They came out this morning and we intendthat is not to do. That is the power of speaking to your audience and eight 00 ina cogent manner. Ingenico. The stock is that a 14 year high. They are exclusive. In conversations to acquire global calls. Thats a bit of a deal. Counter story. Deal, no deal. Lets bring viewers up to speed with the fact that the rix bank is giving us a move on their interest rate. More details in a moment. Nicolas sarkozy says that the influencers peddling charges against them are aimed at defaming him. It was his first interview since his defeat in the 2012 president ial election. Sarkozy denies any wrongdoing. Are want to tell those who listening to us or those who are watching us that i never betrayed her confidence, that i never did anything contrary to the republican principles or the rule of law. Un have. S. And the condemned the abduction and murder of a palestinian teenager and israel. Secretary of state john kerry called it sickening while the u. N. Demanded justice for what it called a despicable act. Minister and his centralbank governor will address london investors in a videoconference today. The nation and russia have moved closer to a truce in talks rocard by germany and france. Bys com in talks brokered germany and france. We caught up with italys defense minister. Though in the ukraine situation, some unacceptable things happened, to slam the do or on russia after working hard to build a dialogue for 25 years . To shut that door would be a mistake. Swedens ricks bank lowers its key rate to. 025 . They are fighting low inflation and that economy. But they also bringing down expectations for various forecast. Lets have a look at what has been happening with poundland. Sales and profit gained. Its set to benefit further. Here with more is caroline hide. Are we becoming bargain hunters . We are. Lets dig into the numbers. 3 million lightbulbs, 3 million meters of tinsel at christmas, 4. 4 million bags of sugar. Clearly, all of us are becoming that little bit more adept at shopping. That is what poundland. We are going to little. We do not mind buying a bargain. We are all getting in there. You can buy anything for one pound in poundland. Five2 of shoppers, on ein , are in the ab earnings category. They are from the most affluent demographic, the highest earners. It is across the board. We want to buy a bargain. That is why poundland is winning. Sales up 13 . Close to one billion pounds. Profit up 23 . They say the First Quarter sales up 18 . They are expanding. They have got more than 500 stores in the u. K. They have opened in ireland. Not calling themselves euroland. Did not have euro positive connotations. Now theyre Opening Stores in spain. They opened the first one yesterday. We spoke earlier to the ceo a poundland. Thingssome interesting to say about what happens to this type of business as the u. K. Economy starts to recover. Maybe you thought austerity has helped the likes of poundland. The discounters because as we all felt we had fewer pounds in our pockets we wanted to be saving. Interestingly, as the economy turns around, are we all going to flock away . We are very much aligned in terms of results to footfall. A more confident consumer is good for us. It might be counterintuitive but in better times poundland does better. I am optimistic about the future. Analysts are optimistic, as well. Four rate the stock. Three say buy. One says hold. Credit suisse and Oriel Securities say the price could rise as high as 400 pence. It is currently at 350. It could go that much higher. Remember, we have had when the of initial share sales coming from the u. K. Retailers. Pets at home. All have fallen since they sold shares. Poundland has managed to raise its share price. Since they sold shares for the first time in march. Thank you very much. Lets keep the conversation going on retail and dig a little deeper. And the story behind poundland. Richard, thanks for coming in. Can we believe that is true . A discount business, what he was telling us jim mccarthy, it seems that they win in all environments. They have done well out of the recession and subsequent recovery. Now he is trying to tell us that as the u. K. Economy recovers, he will do well because footfall might increase. The evidence from the past shows that when you do give it up get an upturn, people aspire to shop in better shops. I think the discount arena will suffer in an upturn. It is worth remembering that it is not just low prices that they are successful for. It is about value for money. Across the whole retail scene. When you get an upturn, that perception of what constitutes value for money does change. It is interesting to talk about discounters. When you put them all together, it looks like a crowded space, even in the nonfood alone. Poundland, 99p stores. They are huge number. We reckon that sector has doubled or tripled its sales during the recession. It does look overstocked to me. Not the food discounters. But the nonfood, i think there are too many of them. I do not think we are heading into a sustained strong upturn. Not with Interest Rates about two rise. If youre going to take a fiveyear view, yes, we will have a shakeout. Do we need to segment the lower end of the retail space . Look at the food company says one thing and look at these nonfood retailers differently . Absolutely. Little is really about value for money. If you want the lowest possible price. Low prices to have and great value, that is why you go to the discounted. The disadvantage is that it is a limited rnage. Range. Youd struggle to do your full shop. Is amazing to remind myself how old some of these discount businesses are, because they are not all that new. Poundland is new, set up in 1990. But poundworld, 1974. Bnm, 1978. The most recent recession has made kings of them on high street. It has. Somehow they have gotten their act together. They have focused on what they need to do. The has been the space. Going was fantastic news because there was so much dead wood there. We have got in its place retailers who are doing what they should have been doing at the lower end. They have opened it up. Those discounters are getting three times the size. There couldve been a market rthswill worth woolwo could have been more of a discount store. Tell us about the rest of the retail space. Where are we . Tesco has been having a difficult time. More Convenient Stores, less of the arena, there is no doubt that people are moving away from superstores. They are in decline. Two reasons. Online is enough to take enough volume from superstores to cause trouble. And the growth of discounters as well. The format to those two is the Convenient Store in the high street specialist. That is what we are seeing. A fundamental shift, the short of change in the environment which we have not seen since the development of superstores after the war. Thank you. Interesting time in retail. We will take a short break on on the move. This is on the move. The uks role in the eu has been in the spotlight. David cameron tried and failed to stop the appointment of Jeanclaude Juncker. You for coming in today. You are a supporter of britain staying in the eu. You speak for the Business Community to some extent. You say it drives growth and boost international competitiveness. Says we could get out of the eu and sign a trade agreement and be done with it. Of course we could. We would be poor because the eu is worth 3000 pounds sterling for every household in britain every year. If we can still trade with europe, dont we still get those benefits . Look at switzerland. It is outside but landlocked by the eu and needs to trade. It has scores of bilateral treaties it has to negotiate with 28 neighbors. That is not a balance relationship. Others say that being in the eu is not worth it for the influence, that it is not going to be affected as demonstrated by the saga around the Jeanclaude Juncker. One country does not have much influence. I do business, not politics. It is worth 3000 pounds a year to every family in britain. Look at how we have led enlargement to the east. Weve led Single Market development. Set the rules around banking. The cbis in foreign capital. I was in berlin. In europets of allies who want to work with us. I do not want to stay in the europe of the status quo. I want to stay in the reformed europe that delivers more value for the british citizen. What about if there is no choice . Thatif the situation developed around Jeanclaude Juncker is the situation britain finds itself up against many times on trying to come up with a revised view of your europe could look like view of what europe looks like . What does the Business Community want . I would have to ask the Business Community again, because their position, almost memberthem, 190,000 cbi companies is clear we want to stay in a reformed europe. Lets get that reform. Id be surprised if i need to ask the question because i think reform is on the table. About what istalk good for the spanish citizen is good for the british citizen. What is good for german business, is good for british business. If we make it a british problem, we end up with pingpong battles. On withs in charge get reform, otherwise somebody will take your place. One way that britain is different is its reliance on Financial Services. It may have reduced since the last boom, but it is very much a part of the economy. I have spoken to people from Financial Services who say get out of europe. We dont want to be in there. They have lost a number of battles, whether it is to do with taxes and other regulation imposed by brussels on the Financial Services industry. They dont think its worth it. We have won more battles than we lost, including in the city. The biggest part of the city nks,anies, the ba want to stay in a reformed europe, because they are europes financial capital. I speak for Small Businesses who need the city to provide them with access to finance to grow. Thats true across europe. Needed,s reform thats what are the areas that David Cameron should be focusing on when they go to brussels to drop this alternative europe . What are the areas of focus for you . Ope doing moreur of what it does well and less of what it does badly. Lifestylefering and issues like employment legislation. It should concentrate on making a Single Market acre and more powerful. We need more free trade deals. A freetrade deal with the United States, with japan. Then one with china. That creates jobs. Lets complete the Single Market. Lets complete the Single Market in digital. We are the leading nation for internet trading. We have nothing but to gain from a digital Single Market. Thatll appeal to young people. You mentioned trade. Is that something that burden should be pushing for . Should we go for trade commissioner . What are the most key . I think we need a Major Economic portfolio. We have the fallen ministry role. The Foreign Ministry role. It is trade, energy, internal market, competition policy. Something that can affect the europe that people want. A europe of independent states collaborating to produce more jobs. The eruourope that britain wants . Others in other parts of europe push fored to something that has more of a political flavor. The eu rotating presidency which sits with italy, he has been talking about United States of europe. That sounds way more political. Clear renzi has made that he cannot envisage a European Union that did not included britain. But of course there will be two European Unions. The eurozone which is a political project. British businesses not want to have anything to do with it. In the European Union of the Single Market. Where we are a full equity member. We have voting rights. We do not win every battle, but we win most. This week we have been talking about mark carney. Celebrating the first birthday. He has been accused of being an unreliable boyfriend. A flip floopper. Do you find the for guidance he has given useful . The Forward Guidance useful . They are talking about a different mark carney than the one entrepreneurs know. Their signals have been consistent. The only thing that has changed is not mark carney. The economy is flying faster. Some of the things he thought would take time that happened earlier. But business knows where Interest Rates are going, and they trust mark carney to get it right. Thank you for joining us. The director general of the confederation of british industry. We will take a break here on on the move. Welcome back to on the move. U. S. Markets are closing early. Tomorrow is independence day. One time honored tradition is the all famous hot dog eating contest. We check out one particular competition. She takes on a competitive eater. This place has been here since 1960. On the fourth of july, 15 people try to eat as many hot dogs as they can. Today, i am also going to do that. Let me hear it for [cheering] two Million People watching. It is a big deal. Weve got 15 hotdogs. 10 for you and five for me. We are going to race for one minute. You are going to need as much as you can. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Start eating so have you want any money . I won third place in a festival. Ive won a couple of qualifiers. How has your life changed before the fourth and after the fourth . The fourth is a big deal. How big of a business is this . This is a very small business. It is an opportunity for significant growth. It has grown tremendously. When we first did the nathans contest there would be three journalists. Now its a massive event. The return on investment is enormous. 1. One minute, 5, 4, 3, 2, put your hot dogs down. Minus what it six had there in terms of the bread. You ate almost two. That is not that. Nutes that would put year somewhere around some of the best female leaders. You might want to consider trying to qualify. My parents would be so proud. She is a very brave lady. Lets leave you with some of the markets on the move. In foreign exchange, weve seen some moves in the kroner. Dropping to its lowest against the dollar. Are fighting deflation just as other parts and europe are. You with ave reminder. Later on this morning, you will be able to hear marriott draghis News Conference. Aboutmens new ceo speaks his new vision for the future for the first time after losing the bid for alstom. Ukraine and russia move closer to a comprehensive ceasefire. Investors are waiting are awaiting the u. S. Jobs report. Good morning and welcome to