Certainly in the u. S. We had payrolls numbers on friday. Lets look at how the markets closed in the u. S. A bit of a mixed day, shrugging off some of the geopolitical tensions rising in the region and shrugging off the worse than expected payroll figures. That was worth less than forecasted. S p 500 down almost two point. Dow jones and most seven points. Nasdaq down almost one point. Surprising resilience in the u. S. Equity market. We mentioned geopolitical tension. Other moves on friday gold, the traditional safe haven, was up. First lets look at u. S. Defense stocks. Those all rallied. Gold was up one third of a percentage point on the back of safe haven. Brent and wti posting pretty significant moves, their second week of games. Displaying the usual response to jim littell two geopolitical tensions in the middle east. I mentioned safe haven. Lets look at how that played out in the currency market. Upwardsthe yen moving one fourth of 1 . That was little gains. It pared 0. 6 earlier in the day. The u. S. 10 year yield up 1. 7 of comments of bill dudley at the new york fed, which we will discuss later in on the show. Lets check in on the first word headlines from around the world. Sweden has declared monday a national day of mourning to commemorate those killed in fridays truck attack. Police have arrested one suspect, a 39yearold man from uzbekistan, and are investigating whether more were involved. 4 were killed and 15 injured when the hightech the truck plowed into shoppers in stockholm. Ecb executive board member has told bloomberg any plans by the central bank for withdrawing stimulus should be reviewed in an orderly fashion. His comments came the day after mario draghi squashed the idea that policy will be altered. Agreed thee member time is not for such changes, he advised policymakers to keep an eye on the evolving economy. Our Monetary Policy is forwardlooking. Before a certain time our measures are kicking in. We are now is that having a Monetary Policy which is usually affected. Hugely effective. Tracy gary told bloomberg that separating wall street and banking operations would boost lending. He says the new operation of the glasssteagall act would eliminate burdensome regulations. If we come up with a 21st century modern glasssteagall, we could tailor regulations for different aspects of the financial institutions. That would allow banks to get lending more aggressively to small or mediumsized companies. On thursday a group of u. S. Lawmakers propose legislation to bring back glasssteagall. Similar bills have failed to gain traction in previous years. South africas rand and dollar bond fell friday after becoming the second Ratings Agency to cut it grading to junk. Tens of thousands of protesters marched to the minute president to demand president jacob zuma step down. Zuma previously purged his cabinet and fact his finance minister. They are on review for a downgrade. Global news powered by 2600 journalists in one 2000 countries. In 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tracy u. S. Secretary of statetracy Rex Tillerson says direct action to stabilize syria will only be taken after the defeat of the islamic state. He says defeating the group is his first priority. Fridays missile attack ramped up tensions with russia and iran. Andrew barton joins us for more. Whenever we see these missile strikes, the logical question is whether they could escalate. Is there potential to launch an Aircraft Campaign for the u. S. . Andrew it looks like this is maybe one and done, in the sense that they used these tomahawk missiles to hit precise targets. Using airplanes becomes more deadly. The advantage of the tomahawks is that you dont have to involve u. S. Personnel. Pilots involved, the risk of confrontation with russia escalates. They used to have this hotline between the two militaries where they would tell each other where they are to avoid confrontation. Russia tells us that is now gone. The risks are much higher. If we have seen anything from the comments since the Cruise Missile attack, the u. S. Will not want to involve aircraft as part of a broader campaign. Leads to the next question, could the u. S. Impose a nofly zone . Is this a solution . Andrew this is something people have been talking about. A noflycalling for zone over aleppo. Some saying we need to move to some sort of postassad. That would involve a broader campaign. The issue with the nofly zone is who enforces it, and what happens if a russian plane enters it. How to use distinguished syrian and russian planes. It becomes difficult enforcing it. You could have some sort of direct confrontation with russia. Syria has despite this six year civil war, one of the most sophisticated air defense systems, augmented by russian s300s and s400s. Not easy. Tracy the potential for escalation. Lets talk about deescalation. Could Rex Tillersons trip to Moscow Region a deal . Andrew Boris Johnson said, i am not going to go anymore. We are going to talk about this in the g7, come up with an agreement. Tillerson will take that to moscow and represent us. In the past has met with secretaries of state. Putin has met with secretaries of state. Tillerson will at least meet with lavrov. The fact that we have not seen anything in these 60 hours since might give hope that we might see a deescalation at least between russia and the u. S. Tracy hold that thought. We are going to discuss this with a professor at the middle east institute at the university of singapore. Thank you for joining us today. The first thing i need to ask will be along the lines of do these missile strikes change the situation in syria . Hello tracy. Nice to be on here with you. I dont think the u. S. Airstrikes changed the situation on ground, although the risk of escalation has heightened. I dont think any side wants to escalate. Syriansy the russians, will not want to escalate. Simply because they are sitting pretty. They have the advantage at the moment since the russian intervention. They will not want to change the status quo. Tracy when what do we expect the syrian side to do at this point . I expected the syrian side not to respond, to keep their heads down and hope that it blows over. We have just heard that the syrians have indeed launched further airstrikes wednesday Chemical Attacks took place. This is to say that we are still here, we are still in charge and he status quo has not changed. Andrew do you have a sense of what this might mean for assad personally . It was not long ago that we were a week or 10 days ago, the world was thinking he might stay as a transition. Demands for him to go were no longer there. What does this mean for him personally . Engseng the situation has not changed. Because what has happened in the past two years, the bullseye target has moved from assad to isis. There is general consensus that isis is the number one problem. Prefer assad to stay in power so that you dont have a repeat of the situation in iraq. This is possible if assad goes. Tracy there are so many entities involved in syria, it is difficult to focus on just one. Lets look at russian. What is the emerging consensus on russian . Will there be necessarily talk, but not more action . Engseng two things in the larger sense, yes, russia has responded very vociferously. I dont think russia will want to upset the apple cart. It has the inventor jet the moment. Advantage at the moment. The u. S. line. The russians have had their say. I think the syrians have had their say as well. The next step is the meeting between Rex Tillerson and Sergey Lavrov next week. Each position has been staked out for the next meeting. Andrew professor, if you could step back and give me a comment about the war. This was going to be a long, protracted, and deadly war. Unfortunately he was right from that sense. Do you get the sense that we are in the final stages of something . Is there any light at the end of the tunnel . What point of the conflict are we in . Engseng it was much longer than what many signs printed when they jumped in. Many signs predicted when they jumped in. Many thought it would be easy. What they forgot is that syria is still playing by the playbook the father of president bashar. He he has always maintained that, if you want to take syria out, you will have nonstop problems. We are in the center of the middle east. Problems will come in from every side, and you will not be able to stop it. We are still going by assads playbook. Youre not near the end at all. Andrew in terms of what that means for the proxies we have turkey, saudi arabia everybody from the region, including egypt. And we are nott near the end of this, what does that mean for all of the proxies involved in regional tension . What that means is at the moment, you have the russians, iranians, and syrians having the upper hand. The situation is such that if assad because, you are going to have nonstop problems because of a vacuum. What this means is that the way forward is for all sides to deescalate. Acknowledgment that assault will remain and that everyone will have to do their calculations along those lines. I think that will happen. ,racy professor engseng ho thank you so much for joining us. Thank you so much to bloombergs andrew barton. Oil prices gaining another week after the events in syria. We will get the outlook on crude and the extension chances of an opec curve. First we are joining s p with a downgrade for south africa as tens of thousands protest against president jacob zuma. We discussed that end the turkish referendum with Abu Dhabi National bank. This is bloomberg. Tracy you are watching Bloomberg Markets middle east live from dubai. Turkeys referendum to change the countrys constitution he is chief Investment Officer for abu dhabi commercial bank. Thank you so much for joining us. Lets start with turkey. It seems we have any number of things happening with the country. We have the situation in syria, also the referendum. The lira was one of the major losers coming out of emergingmarket currencies on friday. How do you expect this to play out in markets . The whole turkish concept that there is a general realization that the trump trade is not going global. That will put downward pressure on emerging markets in general. Having said so, if you look at turkey and take it apart from the global context, the would see that a lot of adjustments have been made in turkey. The you look at the fiscal deficit, closed growth picked up again. Friday becausen of justified concerns. The Turkish Central Bank has been making policy before the referendum. Veryt see them becoming accommodative. There is a possibility that turkey could surprise on the upside. Given the situation in syria, one might think it cant get worse than it already has. There is a chance that turkey could surprise on the outside. Tracy when it comes to political risk, it seems that we have a growing laundry list. We saw eruptions in latin america, the turkey referendum, and what is happening in south africa. We have yet another downgrade from a ranger from a major rating agency. This chart shows the gap between South African bonds and usts. Investors are looking for more compensation to hold South African bonds in the wake of those downgrades. How big of a deal is this for the countrys bond market and assets in general . Luciano that is a good question. The concerns for emerging markets are globally on the rise, for economic reasons. Growth in the u. S. Is more cappe than people thinkd. China will start tightening. There are general concerns for the emerging market. You have to be selective, discriminate between emerging markets. What is happening in south america is not symptomatic of all countries. In south africa, it seems that president zuma is somewhat cornered. He has on the left of his ruling anc party, he has the socalled Economic Freedom fighters, the communist party the firing of the finance minister is clear indication that he feels pushed to the left. In south africa, concerns are very legitimate. The point is, how some thematic is south africa how symptomatic is south africa for the rest of emerging markets . Tracy what would you say south africa isnt that important to emerging markets . Luciano we have seen concerns in other countries. We saw turkey last year. It is not necessarily going to spill over. There is more discrimination than there used to be in the past. T1 emergingmarket is of course china. That is another discussion altogether. I dont think south africa will trigger massive contagion over the next few weeks. Tracy on friday we saw a rally in the dollar off the backs of rising geopolitical tensions. How improbable how big of a problem is the Dollar Strength for emerging markets . China has had issues with the dollar in the past. Luciano that is correct. This brings us squarely to what is going on in the United States. In our opinion, growth in the United States is capped. 2. 5 real gdp growth. We are not going to go back to those fantastic figures before the financial crisis which mr. Trump boats he could realize. If we are going to have disappointments on the fed hi kes, we suspect a pause. We certainly suspect some backtracking from the fed if the dollar would appreciate too much, just as has happened in prior years. Tracy that is the perfect segue. We are leaving emerging markets, but after the break we will be picking up on the u. S. Growth story. We will be talking about what the latest jobs numbers mean for fed policy, and ask how many hikes we can expect this year. Ano just gave us a little preview of that. This is bloomberg. Tracy still with us is head of Investment Strategies for Abu Dhabi Investment bank. Lets start with the jobs numbers we saw on friday. A disappointing overall figure, 98,000 versus expected 100,000. The numbers we saw positive wage growth. How have you interpreted the numbers . Luciano we are reaching a cap to how much jobs can be created in the United States. There is a reserve of labor in the u. S. Like anywhere else. We would expect that you will have less job creation over the months to come. We expect growth to stabilize. Inflation expectations are likely also going to stabilize. We not expect the Federal Reserve we think it will gradually cool down its rhetoric. Extent, that should favor an upside to equity markets. It will be much more volatile. Much more sideward movement also. Tracy speaking of equity movements, this chart shows the s p 500 in blue, versus the u. S. Unemployment rate. When the Unemployment Rate tends to trough, we see a peek in the s p 500. You have a fantastic call in november, you said go after equities after trump took the election. Do you see that trump rally running out . Luciano we see it fading. You dont see him running out. If you can see fiscal policy, that is unique in this context. The historical precedent, you would guess that he would be able to put something through congress in despite of what happened with health care. We see it simply fading. Point is extremely important is that there is not much spilling over to global markets. Shouldson why investors invest in u. S. Equities in general is that if there are concerns about closing the u. S. , it will paradoxically have a larger consequence on emerging equities. Tracy we will have to leave it there. This is bloomberg. So youre having a party . Im happy for the distraction. Ill be right there. And the butchery begins. What am i gonna wear . This party is super fancy. Are you my uber . [ horn honks ] hold on. [ upbeat music playing ] the biggest week in tv is back. [ doorbell rings ] whos that . Show me watchathon. Xfinity watchathon week now until april 9. Get unlimited access to all of netflix and more, free with xfinity on demand. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. Tracy the first word headlines from around the world. In. Payroll gains slowed march while the jobless rate fell to the lowest in almost a decade. 98,000 jobs were added. Those are the weakest figures since may 2016, but may reflect that the labor market is returning to normal after a healthy run. Economycials viewed the as operating at or near maximum employment, but are divided in the slack in the job market. See if theng to Labor Force Participation story will continue. I hope it does. At some point it will run out. Im looking at when that will run out. That is going to be an important indicator to normalize policy whether by increasing the federal funds rate or shrinking the balance sheets. Nikkeis foreign secretary canceled a check to moscow over syria. He said he dropped the trip to an apple u. S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson to deliver a clear and coordinated message to russians. He was ridiculed by come in the u. K. For being a poodle to the white house. A second weekly gain after briefly spiking following the u. S. Strike on syria. They settled at their highest levels in almost a month, while the market digests implications pricesattack on syria, continue to boost. They next meet envy and a on may 25. The u. S. Commerce secretarys former Investment Company has made a big bet on chinas Steel Industry even as he challenges alleged dumping of chinese steel in his new job. Wilbur ross is still divesting his stake in the firm he founded. The firm said it would start a joint venture with china still 11. 5investing up to billion in underperforming steel assets. Toldeo of ford has bloomberg he is optimistic about trade dream the u. S. And china following president s meeting with his counterpart gq bring xi jinping. Call this year is the industry in the u. S. To be about 17. 7 million units, down slightly from last year. At a relatively high level. We are seeing some more competitive miss from a standpoint of pricing. Staying very focused on satisfying our customers. You can see that interview in full tomorrow on daybreak asia from 7 00 a. M. Hong kong time. Global news try for hours a day powered by more than 2600 turn list and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tracy thank you so much. The march u. S. Jobs report suggests the labor market may be returning to a more sustainable rate of progress. Gary cohn gave us his assessment of the data. Had an opportunity to talk to the president. We are pretty pleased with the jobs numbers. When you look at the unemployment numbers going down, both the 4. 7 number going down as well as the higher, you six number we spent a lot of time looking at that coming down by 3 10 of a percent. We are pleased with what is going on in the unemployment picture. What we know is coming with the jobs created by the companies we have talked to and moving manufacturing back to the United States, we are excited about what is going on in the future. The president has talked about the unemployed not just the underemployed. Importante of the things you look at as you get this report card . Absolutely. The president i have a lot of time talking about that number. The underemployed people, the people we think are working in jobs that could work in a better job. That number comes down by. 3 is exciting for us. We are happy to see that number below 9 . We would like to get that number lower but that is a number we are spending a lot of time looking at. What du and the president think you can do to address that number . What specific initiatives will have the most effect . Fiscal policy . Deregulation . Yes to all of the above. We have started down a multiple track system. First faulty regulation. That is one of the easier things we can attack. Some deregulation we can do between personnel. Some of ourulate markets and some of our industries and we are doing that. You see them come through through executive orders and by some of the agencies. We are also working on tax reform. We think that will have a very big impact on job creation. You can see the president doing this every day, meeting with day,rate leaders every having been committed to bringing jobs back to america. We will continue to increase the job opportunities. We also need to go through retraining. You have seen the president and ivanka trump spending a lot of retrainingg about our labor force in creating a more wellrounded labor force that can build the jobs that we have. Of jobs that need to be filled, we just dont have the right applicant pool. Training the applicant pool to fill the jobs will be exciting for us. We think we can do that very quickly. Was white house economic adviser gary cohn speaking with david westin. The u. S. Payroll gains in march were well below consensus expectations. However, Bloomberg View columnist Mohamed Elerian said one should be careful calling this a week jobs report. Thiswould not extrapolate to say it is a week jobs report. If you look at the threemonth average, were probably going to settle around 150,000 in event shall he. Wage growth is expected. The coceo at Capricorn Fund managers joins us to discuss further. I have to ask for your take on the perils number. Turning into a were socked test a rorschach test. It came in a bit weaker. There is a lot of noise that comes around when you have a big change in the u. S. Economy. Waiting to see will his deregulation and fiscal stimulus actually push through. Until then, take a little bit of a step back. Tracy had easy that playing out in markets . Said heious guest thought trump trade was fading if not dying out altogether. I think that is fair. Certain element of trump trade are starting to wind down. The High Tax Companies start to fade. However, underlying that all is the fact that there is a big stimulus impetus to the overall market. If you are still area should on bonds, it is positive on equities overall. You have to be long gone equities. Tracy im glad you brought up bonds. Came off of the facts the fed mice not actually take as long day pause in tightening as markets might have hope. What impact do you see that playing out . This is another area where we have a lot of debate and difference of opinion. There are so many things here. That 2. 63 , we got there and then we just came back. For my own personal standpoint, gdp growth in the u. S. Is well below consensus. Deals going on the below 1 . We are still stuck in this deflationary camp. Market panic sets in the other way around. On the other way around, we have europe. Youre looking at tightening. Theyre bringing down there balance sheet. Europe is looking very interesting. It is like their tip one way or another. Tracy it is difficult to tell which way. The other big debate happening right now is between the hard Economic Data and the soft surveybased data. What side you fall on . Which do think the fed is giving more weight to it the moment . The fed is following a very path dependent line. We are there or thereabouts in terms of unemployment. We seeing inflation coming through. We dontust saying if do this now, we probably wont get the chance. Lets just make three to four cups and see how it goes and wait for the hard data to catch up with the soft data. I think this is what matters in the long term over the next year. We have change with donald trump as president. We need to see the hard dj come through does the hard data come through. Are going to stay with us and we are going to be talking about a lot more coming up. Including the outlook for oil and the Saudi Arabian economy. We did have the price of crude rising for another week off the back of the tensions in syria. Lets find out whether or not that is going to keep going. This is bloomberg. Tracy you are watching Bloomberg Markets middle east. Live from dubai, im tracy alloway. Lets take a quick round up of the stories in the middle east. Starting out in kuwait. They have reiterated its commitment to a supply cut with opec. They had pledged support for prolonging the cuts. Qa also said the closure of a desk kuwait also said the closure of a refinery would not affect the deal. The longest run since 2011, drillers added 10 ricks bringing the total to 672. The increase in drilling has driven seven weeks of increases in u. S. Production. Said to be interested in buying Toshiba Television units. Nikkei reports that the turkish Home Appliance maker are in the running. She was sold the firstever japanese made color tv but is now being forced to sell the business to limit its losses. Theres also an agreement to produce tvs in europe under the toshiba brand. With him on from cap corn management. They did for joining us. I mentioned oil. A bit of a spike in brent off of what happened in syria on friday. It kind of petered out. The overarching theme in oil market has to be the tensions between the opec production cuts and u. S. Oil rigs, which have been rising for weeks. I think this is it. Syria, the runways are back up and operational. The key is do we see a massive deescalation of the geopolitics . I dont think so. They have been very careful. What really matters is that tension between opec cuts and rigs coming on. Rigs will stable the oil market in the next three to six months in terms of u. S. Production. What matters is the compliance of opec and do they go back in this year. Everyone is watching this inventories. Tracy i want to ask you about opec. Is there with the political will to keep going on production cuts . They seem to have thrown a lifeline to u. S. Shale producers. The bulk of the pain is falling on saudi arabia. Saudi arabia needs to lead its because they are the biggest player in the field. They can flex a lot more than anybody else. What has changed was that in 2014, shale comes in and takes the money and everyone else cheap. Now it has changed. We cut and stabilize the price, we can give away our bonds, we can give away aramco bonds. They definitely have the will. Nonopecers is does and opec have the will outside of saudi arabia . You can feel a little bit of panic even though the oil price is stable around 50. Tracy you mentioned saudi aramco, we had news they were looking to sell their first sukuk. How much does the saudi aramco story play into the opec story . I think it is massive. If there was not saudi aramco coming to the market, i dont think they would be as eager to cut or stabilize oil prices. It is a positive view of prices coming down to support. Ofmco is basically the core the saudi reformations strategy. It was an interesting hybrid sukuk. A are using aramco as hybrid sukuk to drag investors to saudi to move the societal reformation forward. Tracy modern society and modern capital markets. You and i were playing around with the valuation of saudi aramco. One thing is the oil price and another is the tax rate. How do you see that playing out and what are the different levers that saudi arabia could pull . Saudi arabia takes a 20 revenue cut. They get their value as a dividend shareholder. It is about 12 a barrel in overall cost. About 50 billion for aramco. If they keep cutting, the royalty and the income tax, the value goes up massively. That 5 shareholding, they get exponentially more. They get one point for percent of the total profit of the cash flow of aramco. Those metrics are just above 30 oil. Tracy how big of a coup would 1 trillion valuation be for the kingdom . I think it is essential. Whole revamp of saudi arabia, they need to give a way a 1 trillion valuation of aramco. Not come of investors wont be interested. These numbers are very important times. Tracy the other big story has got to be the impact of low oil prices on its foreign currency reserves. Have beeneople talking about the impact that could have on the wider market. Do you still see that as a theme in markets . In terms of saudi arabia, you are approaching where the liquid reserves are getting low. Ifer countries like bahrain, prices remain low, theyre still bleeding. If they cut a 10 devaluation down to 1 devaluation. You can see the pipeline of nonoil revenue coming in. That is important to saudi arabia in particular. Tracy you are staying with us. We have more to talk about. Let me bring your attention to a new feature on the bloomberg. We would like you to check out. It is our interactive tv function. You can find it at tv. You can watch us live in see previous interviews and dive into any of the securities or bloomberg functions that we talk about. You can become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during our show. Onyou have a strong opinion the decision, share it with us. This is bloomberg subscribers only. Check it out at tv. Investors see the russian ruble and the lira as the most this is bloomberg. Is a bitample, syria of a wag the dog element to it. Maybe the Foreign Policy crisis. Tracy you are watching Bloomberg Markets middle east. That was the chairman and chief globalst at roubini economics. He said it could be a way to distract from the domestic Economic Issues in the u. S. Very in the u. S. With an emerging markets specialist. Have a laundrye list of political things to choose from in more dovish in emerging markets. They have been outperforming the developed world by a significant margin. What is going on . Anything stop that rally . Stopthink the fact is to certain rallies. Firing. Rica, the in syria, we have had the syrian action happening. Turkey 30 rally in really that sensible . We have seen russia come up 20 . This whole pressure shanks ands coming off, that has the whole russia sanctions coming off. Keep little risk. Asia is still going and latin america is still going. That is what is supporting this rally. Tracy im talking about emerging markets as one giant block for the sake of supposedly. How much is a growth story and how much is driven by global liquidity levels which, despite fed tightening, are still impressive . This money looking to go outside of the u. S. In particular right now. When these of the rail Pension Funds start come you dont want to be longrun u. S. Bonds whether rates are going up. It will find its way to interesting places. Youre getting attractive real yields in emerging markets. Things liked for composition, people are thinking maybe we should allocate. An allocation of capital is a lot less price sensitive than actual investment of capital. Witnessed up talking about emerging markets about one giant block now. What is interesting you in this sector the most . India looks fantastic here. It is taking the bottom out of inflation and you are now getting this massive push through. That is very interesting. You look at the philippines and indonesia, that is where politics has committed to. Do tear today, the whole du e terte, particularly as china force money in. Pours money into massive infrastructure projects. Tracy what country were as youve most at the moment . I would say turkey. 30 going intop a 4 gdp quarter. Take a look at what we should be expecting ahead of the market open here in the middle east. We are joined by philly paper check out very philly paper check out see someinitely should moves in the gulf. That is all we hear about from investors from analysts, everyone is just watching the markets here right now. There are many expectations of what we will see. Within the companies presenting results this week, there is extra competition on banks in general. We have caught are coming in with results on tuesday. We have results here in the uae such as dubais islamic bank. And we have saudi. Saudi is always a big story. We see a lot going to the Banking System there. We have some big names in the country that are presenting numbers as well. Reggie capital can outlook rajiv capital came out with a report with an increase in positions in such banks in the first quarter. Concerned that a lot of people were thinking you would not be on the table after the issues of the sovereign bond last year. , higher thans people were expecting, we should see a reaction in the stock markets. We still see people concerned not just about provisioning but also about liquidity presumably. That is surprising after the big bond sale in october. Thank you so much. That is it for this edition of Bloomberg Markets middle east. We will be live from the region again at the same time tomorrow. This is bloomberg. The following is a paid presentation for meaningful beauty, brought to you by duffy rinker. 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