comparemela.com

And negotiate the u. K. Leaving the block. And hike guidance. There will be two more hikes this year. All speak today, what clues will they give on the rate path . Matt 30 minutes until the cash open across the continent and in the u. K. Today looks so risk off. Across theures up board and gains in the cash trade in your this the u. S. And europe. They are selling off sovereign debt as well. Lets turn to the gmm. Equity markets really strongly bed yesterday. Bid yesterday. Have decided to go even shorter on sterling. Are. 1 is where we take a look at the latest data. The market is short sterling. That will be one of the stories we will be watching. We will talk about that throughout the program. I am curious to get things from your perspective and how things are going down in brussels. The pound is going to be one of the big stories. Here is juliette saly. Juliette thank you. The u. K. Is set to trigger its exit from the eu. Ofy will limit the scope upcoming talks. According to three people they will negotiate terms and not a future trade relationship. That would be a blow to the u. K. Which wants to discuss the breakup and future time in tandem. Beft guidelines will published by the end of this week. Scottish lawmakers have been backed plans to have a second independence revolution referendum. Requesting the legal means from the u. K. 30s to hold the of 2019. Pring the decision sets of what promises to be a lengthy and acrimonious showdown within the u. K. In the midst of brexit negotiations. Fillonsois wife President Trump has issued an executive order rolling back his head assessors carbon cutting comments commitments. He is unraveling rules and directives to combat Climate Change that president obama made a second issue of his second of his second term. He wants to reorient policy and help u. S. Oil and coal producers. We have a limited a devastating anticoal regulation but that was just the beginning. Today i am taking bold action to follow through on that promise. My administration is putting an and havee war on coal clean coal, really clean coal. Juliette President Trump will be briefed on various ways to implement comprehensive tax code changes. He will be presented with possible options by a group of officials including the head of the National Economic council. According to three people with the meeting. Colmars in australia have halted a third of output from the countries biggest coking coal producer region. As the remnants of cyclone debbie continue to dump rain on queensland. Glencore are among the producers that suspended operations for a total of 12 mines. It was the worst to hit since 2011. It helped price push prices to record levels at the time. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Guy thank you. The u. K. Will stop start talks with the European Union when theresa may triggers the brexit process. She will address lawmakers and at the same time her letter reaches eu president donald tusk. What can we expect to hear in westminster today . Once this formally happens. Anna the time to tune in is around lunchtime. We may start the day with brexit. John kline juncker john thede juncker described call. That happens around 12 30 p. M. U. K. Time. She has been able to reveal what. As in the letter the contents are so secret even some members of her team have not seen them. How long is it, what details, what tones does it include . Fx market have been suggesting we could see the currency and the pound move higher if we see a conciliatory tone adopted by theresa may. Will it all be about divorce tradings, will we know anything about eu citizens and priorities for the month and year and weeks ahead. Maybe we will have to wait until the dialogue moves to wrestles to move this story on any further. Let me ask you what you expect to be the next catalyst for the pound once article 50 is triggered. Mark one of the problems were starting traders is that there is no starting catalyst. That is why the market has gotten very short. Suddenly the risks are much more skewed to way. We have the event happening today. From tomorrow that is one of the dilemmas. Suggesting that the marginal ande might be closing up purchase a pound because that is with positioning is. We will talk about that view throughout this morning. In terms of how the United Kingdom is going to be reacting to this, in terms of how we are going to get a view from Northern Ireland and scotland, what can we expect there . Anna how united is that United Kingdom . Yesterday we saw the Scottish Parliament voting in favor as expected of asking the u. K. Government for permission to hold another legally binding referendum on independence. That will not be granted. Theresa may and her government said they reject the call. They will not enter into talks with the scottish government. They think this is a sign for the u. K. To come together. Theresa may has other things she need to get needs to get on with. Building support for another independence referendum. Will after todays events really move to brussels or at least the eu arena. Meeting through april and some confirmation in april on voting of the negotiating parameters that will get laterr this week. Matt when tom barrow polls of i am sure all the reporters will crowd around his car. He will hand off the letter and make a fairly bank statement. A lot of noise and drama but what are traders actually watching for . Guest the fact that there will be so much noise, everyone will be commenting, everyone will have a view. We are going to cover it all day and the market will be focused on this so it is hard for traders to extract. Important will be with the town of the letter is and that is one of the key things the treasury focuses on. The have to ignore some of headlines because it is confusing noise of the moment. We do not know what will happen. Price action and technicals become important in the shortterm. We will see the impact of trade. I could start triggering some other stops in moves. Guy we will wrap it up there. Thank you. U. K. Parliament, plenty of coverage coming from westminster. Bytes of the cherry when it comes to monitoring markets. There is also a special tliv that will deal with triggering article 50. Be critical to see how the pound trades. We are getting in news from donald tusks office in brussels. The brexit letter has will centralce at 1320 european time, 12 20 p. M. London time. Theresa may will be taking pmt Prime Ministers questions in the house of commons in london. A busy time there. You can follow all of it on your bloomberg. Good morning. On sterling is the market . Extremely short. This is very much confirmed by our own internal flow data, we see this from a variety of different segments of the investor community. It is the case when i speak to clients. It is clear that everyone is short sterling. Is about to get shorter . It would be hard to get a lot shorter. Value perspective, it is hard to go a lot lower. We are coming off of near 50 year lows in value. To be that short when you are this cheap seems like a mistake to me. What do you think about the vote yesterday for the scottish render it referendum . How does that affect the currency trade . That is clearly something that created a lot more noise around this issue that mark was talking about earlier. Soundtely, it is a lot of and fury signifying nothing. This is a gambit, clearly by the first minister of scotland to position herself for an election in the future. If you look at polls, there is no clear indication that stocks another scots want referendum before they find out what a deal looks like. Whethert even clear they vote to leave. This is a political ploy on her side. Markets have seemed had have seen through that. Do you expect the boe to react at all to the pound where it is, and he was after article 50 is triggered . Guest they are always monitoring these things area that has been a key driver of inflation. Inflation has been coming largely from external sources. What they have been focused on is do you start to see domestic sources of inflation question mark if you start to see that that is the type of thing they will react to. If not, they will look through the inflationary impulse coming from sterling. Withlso they would welcome respect to their inflation mandate and reduction in sterling. Know and werious to have some of your targets, i am wondering how this fits around the metrics. It from an oh ecb point of view which has sterling undervalued against the dollar. The big mac has it trading lower as well. Underve 27 , 29 valuation. Give us your sense of the degree of undervaluation and what you think the fair value is. Guest weve roughly see it as being about 50 15 undervalued. The way we look at it is very similar but on a multilateral ppp basis. Looking at the Exchange Rate relative to its history. We have data going back to the early 1960s. There is only two times when sterling got weaker. When the imf was bailing out in the 19 70s and for a few months in the Global Financial crisis. We do not think that discount is merited based on what is likely to come out of brexit. 15 undervalued on a broad basis. What does that mean in terms of particular currencies, we do negativet brexit is a head. We do not expectings to go back to normal. We are thinking this is extreme. Where looking for euro sterling to go back to 76 by the early part of next year. Which is a little bit on the weaker side than what is historical but still stronger than here. And for cable to go around 138. We will talk french politics and what is happening in the u. S. , interesting happenings on capitol hill. Answer may will lawmakers questions in the house of commons starting at is 20 minutesat earlier when the letter will be handed over to donald tusk. More on your bloomberg. Lets get back to westminster and rejoin and edwards. Anna thank you. Mp hillary been benn. Great to have you on the program. Lets talk about the days events. What are your hopes and suspicions about what the content of the letter will be, are you excited about the detail or will it be lacking . Guest it remains to be seen. None of us have had a chance to read it. I anticipate it will set out in broad terms with the Prime Minister said in her lancaster house speech and with the government put in the white paper. Is a very significant moment for the country. The british people made the decision we are leaving the European Union last june. Get the best to outcome for the british people. We also need to be frank about the scale of the challenge involved in these negotiations, highly complex. The result is going to impact upon every is this, every family, every part of the country. Anna it is almost unrivaled in its complexity. We have been reporting that perhaps donald tusk is going to give a mandate to michelle bonnier. Will that be a big blow to u. K. Interests . That would be unwise if that is with the European Council decides to do. Article 50 covers the divorce but it says in the you with the. Ew framework you cannot take account of a new framework if you have not negotiating negotiated it. With elections in a number of european countries, france and germany this year, 18 months is given everybody recognizes the scale and complexity of the negotiations. You might as well start on all the elements from the beginning. And do it in sequence. Have said they want to do it in sequence. There could be some overlap starting with the brexit, the divorce proceedings. It is going to come down to the u. K. Writing a check and then we move on. Guest there will have to be a debate on the question. No one has seen the calculations yet. We have a share of the assets. There is a question of what britain might be compelled to contribute. Confined toss programs like 2020 which is important for scientific research. We need to try and get the best agreement both for the European Union and the u. K. And for the u. K. , the most important thing as the evidence we have had before the committee has made clear he must ensure a continuation of tariff and barrier free access to our largest single market. 44 of our exports go to the eu and 88 is services. What happens to Financial Services, the creative arts, to data transmit, all these questions will need to be decided. In what is a short space of time. We can Start Talking about that with our european friends and neighbors. We will [inaudible] partyhow does the labor hold the government accountable here . Tests andup with six there were a number of tests for the government but it is difficult to hold them to account when the vote was around a very broad principle and not around the details of what this would look like. Guest what the referendum decided is we are leaders of the European Union. It did not determine or ask to comment on the terms or nature. Thek we should get on with task. They are not going to call a general election. The clock now starts ticking today. It could be as little as two years, there will be less than that. He wants to wrap this up by the autumn of 2018. Andeuropean Parliament Member states have a chance to consider a draft deal. The prospect of leaving without anything is something we cannot contemplate and i disagree with those who say no deal would be better than a bad deal. Itdeal is a bad deal and with the worst data available. Anna thank you for joining us. Back to you. Guy thank you. Anna edwards joined outside benn. Ament by hillary a few minutes ago he said the National Front vote is underestimated in the opinion polls. Our guest is still with us. He was nervous. Should he have been . I do not think so. Polls look at any of the out there, Marine Le Pen is behind by at least 15 percentage points. That is when she is facing the unlikely [inaudible] she isis facing macron, behind by 20 percentage points. Dople have said that polls not seem to work. They got brexit wrong, they got the u. S. Election wrong. Lineolls were clearly in with the potential brexit. It was certainly within the margin of error, same thing with the u. S. Election. E closer in 2016 than they were in 2012. In france you have extra nearly high turnout. Getidential elections between 70 and 80 turnout going back to the 1970s. And the u. S. And u. K. You have much lower turnout. Changes internet could make a bigger difference. Changes in turn out could make a bigger difference. Matt it is seen as unlikely that le pen win is but if she does, i assume that would be a bad thing for the euro. How do you see traders laying that . Guest absolutely. It is a much more significant risk because the french president has a lot of power concentrated in that position. Of course, the french president cannot bring about a referendum by themselves. You would need to have parliament. The steps thate would worry. People would react to that badly. The way that people have been playing it is through the Options Market because it is about a risk scenario. A lot of that premium that was seen in tail risk options has been bid out, i think appropriately. She had zero chance of winning. Those, wasting money on frankly. Get in and place a big bat in that case . You want to play the other side. ,here is a lot of that option the options out there. Those are been hedged by the street on the other side. Aen you get certainty over nonle pen victory, that will lead to somewhat of a pop in the euro. We have that in our forecast. We think the euro does better over the course of the next quarter as a result of relief from the french election. Even though we see it going down in trend through the course of this year. Guy you can see this on your screen, Toshiba Nuclear has filed for chapter 11. It getting covers confirmation filing bankruptcy in new york. Lets come back to the dynamics. He is backing macron, does that raise the position that to say i cannot vote for macron. On in the second round. In terms of market utility. Guest theres the issue around the president ial election, to your point this may get further to fillon. Fil did makel it intoo then second round in sit of macron, markets would be a little more nervous than they are now. While i still think there is a le ce for the pen to be fillon, they are closer. Guy we will talk about the market open. Guy one minutes to go on to the cash open. A solid day. We are expecting european stocks to open on front. You need to be focusing on, up by another. 05 percent. Storming and down overnight. Interesting how that story plays into the ftse today. Aremoment u. S. Futures pointing to a flat stretch a flat picture wants wall street gets going later on. The big event in brussels. Iseresa mays cabinet minting and the u. K. At noon in the u. K. You will see the question and answer session starting in parliaments. Our later halfanhour later theresa may give her statements. Right about that time, 10 minutes before 12 20. Tom barrow to bring the letter tusk. O donald troicki guy cash is beginning to come through. Market makers making up their , sony 355 is where the london is now. Interesting to see the end of the day how well european markets have performed. Following on from that, looks like the health care hiccup was hiccup. Point this morning. 4 . Manus shanghai has checked out of markets for the day. Down. 3 . Utility, upng at. 5 . Global stocks are pounding away for the fifth trade month of gains. Brexit is the theme of the day. Signed, sealed, barely nearly delivered. What will the tone be . This is the ftse 100. Higher on ofeaking volatility in the u. K. The believe what the u. K. Would get up and walk away from negotiating table eventually. Not his base case but a very real probability not being priced into the markets. Taking the Bloomberg Index all the way back to 2001. It happened a long time ago. July 3 40 2014. Sealed,d demise was down went the pound and there is the markets. The repricebly see higher. What is happening on an individual stock story basis on the stoxx 600. Hsbc did as well as drug stocks are doing quite well. Some of the more commoditybased stocks are coming up as well. Welltocks are trading as this morning. On the downside, you have a cd down 5 . Looking at this, relating as they describe unfortunate consequences. The reasonableness in terms of where the banks are this morning. For banks, a solid video yesterday. Bidd bid it yesterday yesterday. Reporter it is not all about europe area news out of the u. S. You mentioned the toshiba and 70 bankruptcy. President donald trump is going to be briefed on various ways to implement from planted conference of tax reform comprehensive tax reform. Cohn is now the head of the National Economic council. Formerly goldman sachs. A few other officials on options for tax reform. One of the key things that investors have been focusing on in the u. S. Evans rosenberg and williams all speaking today. Stan fischer and yellen yesterday. That twoher believes more rate hikes this year are justified. Bit higher in the state yesterday on the back of it. Attention ton our tomorrow on the fiscal front. Paul ryan wants to see this order tax. Moment, the president is on the fence. If that were to go through, how significantly would it change your forecast surrounding the dollar . We do see this is one of the crucial issues for the dollar. How fiscal policy turns out i think there is our base case, the ones markets have expected. Extend thehat will Economic Cycle in the u. S. The dollar. Markets were worried you do not get anything. Theres this one that is a reform package. Certainly what paul ryan has talked about. Differenteard all the that ministrations talk about it in terms of reform. People have focused a lot on the border of adjustment tax because it is new, it is different. Is the reform parts. If you reform and level the tax code, positive for productivity. There is a supplyside structural reform that rethink could really extend the dollar rally. Do you think there is stronger tax reform in congress and for Health Care Reform . Problem. S a tough tax reform by its very nature is contentious. The only way to pay for this is with this order adjustment tax which is even more contentious. Not only among members of congress but the international. There are significant headwinds to this. That said, you talk to anybody in washington and they will tell you this is the best chance for actual tax reform in a generation or more. There is a commitment to try it. See exactly the fractures you saw in Health Care Debate within the Republican Party itself. How tax reform is really approached. There is a sense of what the tales look like here. Lets say we get a Health Care Failure written into whats happened with tax policy. Give me a sense of what the spread is there. A lot of it has to do with timing. The dollar rally in 2011 is nearing its end. We are getting towards the end of it. Our forecast have that occurring at the end of this year, First Quarter of next year when everything is priced in. You would start to actually see the dollar turn and happen probably over the summer. With respect to the reform outlook, if you are able to get reform through, as we just discussed is a huge challenge. That is something that could push through a year or more of dollar gains, potentially challenging the 1985 highs in the dollar. Guy present for the market, a little more. Can we take this to the bank . You cannot take anything to the bank because it is data dependent. We forecast to heights as well. Theres certainly an upside risk to those. Beenhave effectively plotting for policy assuming nothing. Has it centralbank detergents been softened as the said it seems to be turning less hawkish . Reporter when people talk about the centralbank diversions they are often thinking about eurodollar. The flip side is while we do see the ecb, if you look at the way that the markets are priced, they have fully priced in every we expect and more. As a result even though there has been some sort of a pullback in Market Expectations around the fed, we do not see that as benefiting the euro as much as it otherwise might given that we do think that everything has been fully priced and on the other side as well. Guy repatriation. Is it dollar positive or not actually dollar positive . We dont have a good measure of what has been priced in. It comes back to the point that we are talking about border adjustment tax. The little supplyside reforms and exactly the homeland investment act part two or Something Like that. Those are all sorts of how do you snuff out each one of those have been raised in. In. Riced theres a sense this will be positive for the dollar. We did in to the numbers, all of that number of money is in dollars. These are companies that have dollar as their functional currency. What is going on with the dollar that you find interesting . There are two interesting things. One is what going on with the dollaryen. A strong call last year in terms based on valuation. A lot of that was unwound by the young term yield longterm yield moves. It did seem to have a barrier by valuation. Since then valuation has been pulling back lower. As he started to get these worries in the last couple of days, starting to move pretty quickly to the downside. Isthe thing to look out for a lowball environment where people have nothing else to do often institutional and factors drive markets. You cannot be short emerging markets and was you have other. Iews guy great to see you. Remember, we have three more exclusive interviews later this week. Boston jim bullard joining us as well. I want to show you something i mentioned earlier. I misspoke earlier on when i talked about is to be is down. Dates and whene they are paid out as you can see. Is trending down by 5. 1 dipped,rlines stocks one in particular has made a very strong recovery. Ryanair. His take on exec the what this all means for the business and the white enter european story. Best report life from westminster and brussels. Going to be reacting to the triggering of article 50. All that is coming up. This is bloomberg. Guy breaking news details emerging from some of the key figures surrounding this triggering of article 50. We know the european apartment and its leaders are to assess the article 50 letter around 3 00 u. K. Time. 4 00 in muscles brussels. Seeking a deep and special relationship with the eu. Nevertheless, i would say that sounds like a positive tone emanating from the british capital. Lets talk a little bit about what is happening in terms of the importance of the pound being factored into the markets. You can set up also further to the right hand side of the screen. Performance52week area the british pound affecting the ftse. The ftse and local currency up 20 . Dollars, up 4 . That highlights how important this currency is to your investment portfolio. Reporter this is a International Investor focused on private equity and debt management. It has been raised to outperform Morgan Stanley. A stagecoach was in the most in june 2016. This is an international transport, being raised to outperform at rbc. Overweight at Morgan Stanley for three i group. Of visual classified platforms dropped 5 . The biggest drop this year for scout 24. Scout 24 said it had record 2016 forlts as a robust outlook 2017. It is proposing a 2016 dividend of . 30 per share. Guy he is speaking on the radio that confidence of the u. K. Can get a new eu customs arrangement. Sounds positive. Indicating, striking conciliatory tone. We understand he cannot cherry pick. Setting up the tone in the arrival of article 50. In testing see how the pound reacts to this. We will bring you that in a moment. Thank you. Aboute the redhead toshiba more than ¥1 trillion. Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a new york court. The move comes up at the Japanese Company warns of a 6. 2 billion writedown on the business. The Pennsylvania Base the brexit , half the worlds atomic units, grappling with delays of projects in georgia and south carolina. Poised to rally to 1500 per ounce. Rising inflation and negative real Interest Rates combined to boost demand. Gold climbed this year as President Trump will be able to implement his agenda, adding to uncertainty around and european elections and raise it. A senior brexit. On charges the u. S. Of conspiring to evade trade of sanctions on iran. At is accused of conspiring to launder hundreds of millions of dollars through the u. S. On behalf of iran and its companies. The turkish lira weekend as much as 1. 2 against the u. S. Dollar following news of the arrest. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Guy lets talk about what is happening with brexit from another angle. U. K. Airlines at of the hardest hit stocks. Plunging onnair all june 24. Ryanair as you can see has more than recovered. Got punchyhas expectations at the moment in terms of shares priceperformance. The core of what is happening at this business. Lets start off understanding the operating environment you found yourselves and. Article 50 triggered later today. You are in a different position than easyjet. It needs to get an aoc to operate the bulk of its roots. 50 of its roots in out of europe. You dont need to do this. Need to make some changes as a result of this. You need an aoc, and operating inspector in terms of you have to make changes . Less than 2 of our flights are in u. K. Ireland, london, hundred principe we need to have a u. K. Aoc. We dont know at this point if we need to get one and want to continue everything that would be straightforward and we will do that. We stand back and look at this, let the games begin. Were calling on brussels to make air travel priority number one in the negotiations. The past nine months, we see a lot of politicians here talking to each other and a lot of hostility from brussels as europe feels like the aggrieved side in this divorce. Everybody is talking about access to the market and we think we will get it. We are saying today, that is politicians and talk. What people should do think about consumers in the middle of this. You hundred Million People coming in and out of the u. K. Every single year. Hundred 50 Million People of european. 80 of britons go to europe on holiday. There is a fundamental lesser here that we have to find a new open skies. Open skies is governed by the European Court of justice. You cannot go back to the wto by laterals. We see a distinct possibility that if we dont see rationality before 2019, were calling for a plan in this calendar year. If we do not get that in the spring of 2018, you will see airlines making reductions in the class in the u. K. Thats what effect jobs and the economy. There is no a distinct possibility that for a number of months there may be no flying between the u. K. And europe until a new deal is put together. It is not going to be straightforward but now we start the process. T this negotiation have you heard anything from officials as far as that . If there is no flying between that seemsd europe, rather extreme. A dire situation, something that negotiators might want to take care of right off the bat. We are asking them to take care of us. We are in a situation that nobody really expected. This is unprecedented. Have a running order when it comes to negotiations. There is nothing more important than air travel. They wanted control, its now time for politicians here to take control because nobody voted for research and air travel. Nobody voted for isolation. The needs to be more urgency to say we want to start at air travel first. Can you give me a sense of how complicated this is . Were beginning to understand some of the complications surrounding this. Who controls what and where. Do you have your arms around this yet . Leap freedom if you are part of the club. The eu. Said we are leaving, essentially present will come out of the European Court of justice. They govern open skies. Guy if i have an aoc on the continent and i effectively ma spanish holding company, aircraft are effectively domicile in the u. K. , thats the way they operate in and out. The water starts to get very muddy very quickly. Maybe this is less of an issue for you guys but in terms of the Airline Industry as a whole, do we think we have a clear understanding of what is going on . Said theyairlines and did not want written to leave europe. Mind tohe airlines from write our we want urgency and a plan because the moment we are without a plan we cannot plan a year in advance. All the airlines are saying the same thing. We need to get going and we need a plan. We already reduced our growth rate from 12 to 6 . Now in a brexit negotiation happening. In the spring of 2018, three or 65 days from now, if we dont have 30 about how people operate on the skies that he will see for the reductions. It goes on for another year. All airlines will be saying we need to see a plan. When this first happened, when the vote went the way that it did, he was very concerned about this. He talked about the impact on ryanair. Have you penciled any that concern within the group . Their hedging our sterling and we did not previously. Sterling is going to be all over the place in the next few years. We said it would be that when exit starts. It is an absolutely fine. Everything is carried on. It really only starts. They really only starts today with article 50 being triggered. Rather than over the past nine months. British public reacted this far . Up, i can is held only say from personal experience holidays have become more expensive. Particularly in france and a number of places. Doubleshifted west rather than east. Business as usual. Demand is strong. It has never been stronger. For any British Consumers looking to go this summer, they will find the flights are cheaper and that is great thing for consumers. A big migration out of tourism in turkey into spain and portugal and italy on concerns around terrorism in turkey. But price are up airlines are down. Moving capacity around europe depending on where demand is. It has been business as usual with strong demand. Lower airfares. Guy my final point. I have the a an basically tracks expectations for your business area this is the estimated share price. Currently trading at 14. 35. Have a great business. Aircraft, 400 aircraft joining. Field, for five dollars a barrel and a fantastic product. Cheapest fares will only get cheaper and evolving considerably. Regardless of what happens, a solution will be found it is just a matter of when. The ongoing charge of the Cost Airlines is going to grow across europe by 10 . Legacy carriers continue to shrink. The background story does not change. More and more europeans are saying we just wants to pay the lowest fare to get to somewhere in europe and thats what we do better than anyone else. Chief marketing operator at ryanair. On you cable start the clock two years when theresa may triggers the brexit process. The biggest names in banking and politics have said. People but in , what no one wants is to disrupt Financial Markets on day one. That can be devastating. I Value Financial Services and i want to ensure that we can keep Financial Services and the city of london. Thats global person i believe will do just that. Brexit,pective of london will return or will remain a Global Financial center of i believe that the revenue impact of brexit on Financial Services will be made good in two or three years time. Isthe most difficult issue if Prime Minister may is announced, there is no passporting and we have complex negotiations. A very long time to get clarity that the banks and corporations and investors and people want to have. Thing for the United Kingdom. I think in the end it will be a tremendous asset, not a tremendous lability. Looking for the fact that Financial Services may get to the top of the priority list of theresa mays government. So far from what we read and hear, we do not have that impression that that hesiod happens. Has get happens. Parliament,of current Economic Advisor to the french Prime Minister in the director of the renowned think tank. Let yes ask what you expect from this letter at 1 20. Is a formal triggering of the beginning of the end. It is not going to be much in the letter itself. Day itf the end of the starts the negotiations. When you expect those to start . Will it start when we get the first statements coming out after they received the letter . They start with a letter. Informally they started some time ago because all sides have communicated to each other. Is going totiations start. I think he is going to say thank you very much. We will start the process to discuss the terms of the divorce. Will those divorce discussions also included trade negotiations or do you think the eu will do that after the brexit . Negotiator has artie said that they want the negotiations of trade agreement to be after the divorce. The british side wants the other way around. I think they will have to discuss the sequencing of that negotiation. Dont forget the eu has 27 bers and the consensus very difficult to change the consensus on the european side. Reporter they will also want more than 60 billion euros . Money is not af lot in terms of british gp. 3 of british gdp. I do think it is a major Sticking Point and i think this is only an opening number. I think it will be going down. Something reasonable between 30 and 50 billion euros. One of the most important is thefor our viewers banks. Do you see london remaining a Financial Center . Onit essentially depends the role thatnd applies to everyone. The u. K. Is out of the European Union, it is not subject to the court of justice. It is not subject to the European Commission and so on. Difficult to conceive how you can have passporting. Passporting really requires enforcement of National Rules and i do not think that will happen. Do you expect the banks to move into the europe . I dont think all banks have to move but those that want to do major activity in europe will. We will perhaps see 1030,000 people moving out of london to the confidence. That is a lot, but not that much because the city of london has 300,000 employees. What you expect the final impact to be . I think london will suffer. A fall and tax revenues. The rest of the economy will not suffer that much because of will find some form of trade agreements. Pound 16 down since june. The rest of the economy will manage. Customill be some barriers painful. We will see what comes out of the negotiations. Export to germany. You can still export to france. It will be possible but there will be a cost especially for london. How do you expect the pounds to play out . Something that is interesting for us to watch because the possible independence vote out of scotland, some people have forecast the pounds to falter medically. Others say it needs to down from here. And student 23, i think it reflects the fact that london will have less access to europe and london will suffer. With it the british economy will suffer. A shortfall incredible see for the british government. The pounds will be weaker. Good news for exporting companies outside of london. Ecb. Forget the how will be even with her. Thanks so much for your time. Financial advisor to the french pm and a former economist. Up on the pound conversation you guys were just having out there in brussels. We saw a selloff on sterling overnight in the asian hours. You can see that very clearly over here. This the europounds. The euro goes up. Plus few minutes, youve seen a bit of a pullback. Almost unwound all about. To see how this one works through the rest of the day, remember the market is sterling at the moment. You wonder how much more shortterm market can get. Lets talk about what we have coming up and what you can use this morning. If you want to watch this program and get in touch and access the video, the chart, the thisions then you can do with the video stream and radio stream. Get in touch. Elizabeth of interactive television. Up next, across europe reporting live from berlin and yeldon triggering article 50. This is bloomberg. Guy welcome back. 43 minutes into the trading day. Lets talk about how things are shaping up this morning as the market liking a little bit. Oil and gas chemicals and banks all reasonably well bid this morning. The london market could be heavily affected by what happens with sterling is we work our way through the session. A massive out performer in sterling terms. Not in a euro and dollar terms since brexit was triggered. Having one of the biggest impacts on the stoxx 600 index. It will be function on the bloomberg come on not only that but the shares have hit a record high. Seems to be moving on the fact that the medical Solutions Usa was awarded a indefinite delivery quantity packs for radiology systems accessories and training for the u. S. Defense department. Talking about a contract with a maximum value of 4. 13 billion. A5year based contract with 15year option. Siemens moving higher. One of the best performers on the stoxx 600 in terms of percentage terms. Provides aluminum and aluminum products. The outlook was stable. Positive impact on the share price. One of the worst performers in percentage terms. This of course is a travel agency based in the u. K. The company did say it started a Financial Year well and sees finance caused producing in the coming year. Shares are down and stocks are the real lacquers out of groups on the stoxx 600. Guy lets catch up with what we all need to know. Heres an update with julia starling. Juliette at the u. K. Is set to trigger its exit from the eu, skylines for limiting the scope of upcoming talks. According to three People Fairly with the matter, negotiating divorce terms and not a future trade relationship. That would be a blow to the u. K. Which wants to discuss the breakup and after ties. Publishing guidelines by the end of the week. Fillons wife has been charged. According to other french media outlets, unidentified judicial sources. The public and nominee has been calls to be lawyer were not immediately returned. Trump has issued an executive order rolling back his predecessors carbon cutting commitments, posing an Energy Revolution and americas fossil fuel resources. Change rivate Climate Change that obama made in his second term. Trump to change a hoax and wants to reorient will see to help u. S. Oil and coal producers. Already eliminated a devastating anticoagulation. That was just the beginning. Today im taking bold action to follow through on the problems. My administration is putting an end to the war on coal. Really clean coal. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Guy thank you very much indeed. As we have been discussing the u. K. Will start the clock today when Prime Minister theresa may triggers the brexit process. Earlier outside the u. K. Parliament, Lawrence Clymer told bloomberg that negotiations could sour quickly. My expectation of the european side will want to negotiate the sequence of the divorce settlement and talk about the future status. That means the socalled bill will come pretty quickly. A lot of controversy in the building was behind me on this. Earlyould lead to patrimony and souring of the relationship. Is important is happening in good tone is so this could be corrosive. Answers anna edwards joins us outside of london. What can you expect in london in parliament and what with what have we heard thus far . Interesting talking but the tone because that might be something we want to watch for in terms of what we hear today in parliament. The letter that theresa may assigned last night, on its way to brussels. Timber oh is the eu and hands that over to donald tusk. That is the procedure of events that take place today. 1 20 in brussels. At the same time theresa may will speak to parliament and a lot of people will be very interested in the tone that she does adopt. To what extent will it be conciliatory, some suggesting that can be something that guides markets, guides the currency markets in particular. I will pick it up here in brussels and ask allen in berlin, how is this going to be received around the different eu capitals . Already a sense of genuine progress across the capitals. That a lotlderment of government officials that we speak to regard as the u. K. Tting itself in the foot shooting itself in the foot. Countries like spain have a large number of u. K. Citizens living there contributed to the economy. What happens to those people . The baltics rely on the u. K. For defense and security support. Their neighbors are russia. Poland have the largest single resettlement recipient of eu funding. Concerns right across the continent. Matt back in the u. K. We heard about Scottish Parliament, theresa may likely to hear from Nicola Sturgeon in the next couple of days. How is that developing . The scottish private yesterday as many expected voting to ask permission for another independence referendum. That went as expected, but now with theresa may having said she will not enter into any negotiations with the scottish government, she wants unity not division in the United Kingdom. The coolest sturgeon asking for a section 30 request and says they will persist in putting in the request for an independence referendum even though they have had indication that will be denied. Tainly a poco of 10 done tensionperiod of when theresa may wants to be focusing on brexit negotiations. Much as been made in the as the germans take a more hostile approach to britain than anticipated. How much of that is reality . I think the german position has been consistent the whole way through. It has not become more or less hostile. It has just been realistic. Michael is on the record for saying she regards the unity without the u. K. As paramounts. As paramount. Officials were saying the government regards the payment of outstanding liabilities as a key issue as well. Really extent they are thinkg the line area guy you very much. Anna edwards joining us from london outside the British Parliament in westminster. Theresa may will answer lawmaker questions at 12 00 p. M. You can follow all the action on. O on a live guy looking back. Talking through some of the currency moves this morning. I want to edit the fact that the dollar continues to rise against the brand his relationship with zuma. I think to a certain extent this is randomtional, that volatility. Rand it has now spiked. View, mechanical point of as i flip around here and go back to what is happening, that was the move. That has now been reversed overnight. Matt miller as well, this is on twitter. There are pictures of tim barrow leaving and heading toward the council. I do not think he was due for a while. He is not due to get here until 1 20. It is possible he has business in the Council Building down the street here. European institutions here in brussels, he may have other work to do here as the eu envoy. If he is here on his way here he is clutching that letter in his briefcase and getting ready to deliver it. Sign it hasominous started snowing here in brussels. Only like snowflakes coming down but maybe not a great message. Guy theres an inside joke here which met is not going to appreciate. With usler will be here in the snow in brussels as we await the arrival of the letter formally triggering article 50, theresa may has dissented, signed it, and now it will be delivered. You can do that on the bloomberg terminal, with a Surveillance Team up next. You can join us as well on the radio in london. This is bloomberg. Francine no turning back. Theresa may signs that historic letter formally triggering brexit to the delivered to you president donald tusk. The pound pushes lower as investors await a response from europe. Were live in brussels. In talking tax, President Trump prepares to be briefed on various ways to implement sweeping changes including Controversial Border adjustment tax. It morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in london. It is going to be a great show. We will be speaking to the

© 2024 Vimarsana

comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.