Look at the bloomberg, g btv 3598 that looks at the msn reading and market reading of manufacturing. 50 is the dividing line between contraction, so we saw manufacturing come down and has been016 expanding now at a higher rate to most of 2015 and now on 27 2016 and out 2017. As trump pushes for made in america, this chart shows we had seen an expansion of manufacturing, although he is looking to expand that even further. Taking you back to the markets and a look at the major averages in the wake, a bounce back after four days of selling stocks in the United States, but i want to look at what is going on with rates because we had been seeing rates push lower. Five, a move higher by basis points and you can see the reaction to the earlier economic data, the employment report showing a job expansion and now yields take a five basis points to 2. 5 . Likewise, the u. S. Dollar had been selling off recently and coming back today, particularly versus the japanese yen, catching a bid in recent days, and that also taking a leg higher. Is not just about the dad that we are watching, unemployment and manufacturing, but about earnings. We had a little one after the close. Apple coming out with phone sales that were higher than estimated. Apple signed up new customers and did not just get existing customers to refresh. Also, suppliers above, not huge in sky works and logic up 2. 5 . Economic data seeing this bond. Mark [indiscernible] earnings propelling stocks higher. The stoxx 600 up for the first day in four, the first monthly drop in three. Top of the apartment a gain of 2. 2 percent. Biggest game today since november 9. You know what happened that day. Lvo biggest gainer today, up as much as 7. 7 percent, biggest increase since april 2015. European demand increasing and the market decline in north america is easing, as well. [indiscernible] the truck market this year to about the 215,000 vehicles, Economic Optimism in the u. S. Is increasing as President Trump pledges to scale back business regulation. Shares are up today. Shares up as much as 6 , the most in the year, europes best Engineering Company raising their outlook after Renewable Energy projects and Digital Services lead to better than expected firstquarter profit. The improved Financial Outlook contrasts over the more subdued tone of the executives speaking about future orders, which are down 40 versus the year earlier. Joe kaiser said the trend began in the Fourth Quarter and continues into the first. Shares are up by 6 today and busy day to day that. Withmanufacture pmi data costs arising within the piece of data at a record pace at the start of 2017, reflecting sterlings drop since the brexit vote and reflecting an increase in oil prices. Weaker currency squeezes manufacturers. The positive impact on exporters appears to be diminished in its monthly pmi. They say there were signs that the Exchange Rate boost was waning and grouping new overseas business slowing sharply in january. The report paints it in a generally positive picture. Headline index at 55. 9, comfortably above the 50 level, which divides expansion from contraction, a measure about put rose to the highest level in the most three years. Manufacturing in a much better position than it was after the brexit vote. Vonnie all right, thank you. The Senate Finance committee has taken Emergency Action to approve Steve Mnuchin as treasury secretary and the health and Human Services secretary. Still have anl approval book. Meanwhile, President Trumps nominee percent from court meet with senators today. It promises to be a contentious confirmation fights. Lets get to Kevin Cirilli on capitol hill. Such. E we get to judge gor we had a letter from democrats expressing concerns about the leading a misleading testimony in response questions. Is there anything they can do in response to boycott the hearing . Kevin frankly, republicans were caught off guard when the progressive are ohio decided that he would lead a boycott of this Standard Committee vote that would remove denominations to the floor. Orrine with the committee hatch following the developments and when he told me is that he would be looking for a pack lowered procedurally and it looks like he got it. Breaking news being that tom price and Steven Mnuchin advancing out of committee and one step closer to a senate vote, which are the point two top positions in President Trumps cabinet. Vonnie when we likely to have the final boat . Kevin we would anticipate the foremost within the next week or so or days. Gorsuch has been nominated. How contentious will this be . The democrats can make it a bit more cumbersome but they cannot hold the process, can they . Kevin there has been talk among progressives to block the nomination. Of course, keeping republicans from getting a 60 vote procedural threshold and forcing republicans to use a maneuver that democrats used in 2013. Nown as the Nuclear Option that would allow for a simple majority vote, which republicans it be able to clear. Here is where it gets interesting. Moderate democrats, centrists, including senator chris coons of delaware and joe manchin of west virginia, are signaling that they did not want to take that of the moret some liberal counterparts are advocating. I put the question to senator n. Nsion and thats manchi senator manchin [indiscernible] respectedand, a jurist, would not even talk to him, was disgraceful. Kevin clearly, senator manchin looking to take the political highroad, saying democrats should not do it republicans did to them. Vonnie President Trump is speaking at the listening session or finished speaking in honor lack history month. He has made a couple of comments in honor of black history month. He has made a couple comments on nomination. Court he said come hopefully he will be approved quickly. Filibuster . Oy the what is the argument democrats are making for not employ it and handing back the republicans what they did last year, for example . Kevin i put that question to senator coons and manchin. To theinted longstanding tradition in the senate that things should move accordingly and that to be labeled but obstructionist with ultimately, at the end of the day, hurt the Democratic Party in a similar weight in hurt republicans, quite frankly, in the Previous Congress by their own critics along the left. Right now. Ving parts i can tell you that people like senator elizabeth thoren, sharon warren, Elizabeth Sharon brown, their cries and shouts for folks to obstruct denominations that every which way, evident of what we saw yesterday on the Senate Finance committee, they are growing louder. Progressive activist threatening to primary some of these more moderate democrats if they did not play ball. Very interesting developments on the left and right. Vonnie so much going on. It is phenomenal. Kevin so much. [laughter] thank Kevin Cirilli, you. We will talk about secretary mattis trip. For now, lets check in with emma chandra. Is on hiss mattis first foreign trip since installing them. He left today percent. And japan. He will try to reassure allies they can still counts on the u. S. President trump suggested in the past that asia countries are not paying enough for american troops stationed in their countries. Russian ending the longest recession in two decades. 1 after. 20 contracting 2. 8 in 2016, beating every forecast and Bloomberg Survey analysts. Russians Industrial Production rose in 2016 but it wasnt enough to make up the decline in consumption. British Prime Minister theresa bases theon brexit first test today. House of commons is scheduled to vote on the formal start of negotiations with the European Union and almost certain to pass. Some of the conservative party is command demanding more power on how the talks are conducted. In france, the republican has become a front runner in this springs president ial election. Would lose in the first round according to a poll and easily beat marine le pen. The first round is april 23. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am emma chandra. Mark . Mark thanks. Using up, fund manager joins to talk about the first fed meeting of the trump era. This is bloomberg. Mark live from london to new york. I am mark barton. Vonnie i am vonnie quinn. It is time for our latest business flash. Analysts say the u. S. Auto market may be cooling off following a strong sales in december. General motors came up short 3g and u. S. Sales were down. They say the average transaction will lose by 300fo a unit. Beatand nissan estimates. Must 5er made a billion for clients last year. Meanwhile, george soros lost money. That is according to reports by Hedge Fund Investor lch investors. Bridgwater was the most lucrative of the top 20 hedge funds ranked. Royal bank in scotland would probably pick dublin as the European Union base. Once the u. K. Use the eu. Davies told bloomberg tv that the bank would only have to move tens of employees and not the numbers other banks have discussed. That is your latest business flash. Mark still ahead, dan fuss joins us to talk about the outlook for global bonds. And the big bed decision later and the big fed decision later. This is bloomberg. Vonnie breaking news, blackstone lacks imitation holmes has hit the public market, shares of slightly. Ts,. 75 of 1 . We will speak to the ceo in a few minutes from the stock exchange. Made up ofhomes is Single Family home leases. We will speak with the ceo in a few minutes. Fed chair janet yellen and colleagues meet later today to get the statements. This is the first meeting of the Federal Reserve this year. The meeting has started. No one expecting in interestrate increase but interested in a statement. To gauge how the central bank is reacting to the trump administration. Joining us, bloomberg sales who manages the flagship funds. Dan, how has your world changed since november 9 . Dan oh, boy. [laughter] with youe time spent might save the News Headlines in the morning. Havearkets themselves been, quite frankly, remarkably and it is a little bit surprising, but thank goodness for it. The real surprise in the market, despite the headlines, has in the weakness of the u. S. Dollar. This year to date. S of the market is becoming more noticeable. I thought it might fill in a little bit this early and it probably will, but on the corporate side, if it is not as liquid as you would like, other than that, it is not really a real big deal as far as what happened market wise. In otherappening respects, certainly, now, that is a big deal. Vonnie for another day, perhaps. Lets look at chart 2693 to show what you are talking about with the divergence in the last month or so between the 10 year yield and the dollar index because the dollar index is on the slide. Where do anticipate yield going . Are you looking for yield to continue to rise in the shortterm . Dan well, yes. Earlier, i had been thinking that the fed might do something today, take rates up. Now, i am not quite so sure if you look strictly at u. S. Economic data, up goes a quarter. If they look at what is happening in the rest of the world, it will cause them to be a bit more cautious, and if they look at what is happening politically, right here at home, i can see what they might want to be a bit more cautious until they have more compelling them,ic data in front of showing a Strong Economy and wouldg inflation, so i say it is now less than 5050, whereas a couple months ago, i thought march pressure, and now, i think they will postpone until june. I have not talked with any of those folks, so i do not know how they see things. Mark if they postpone until june, is three on the card this year . Three rate hikes . Dan no. Were. To think three i thought they were due march happened out what that aspen when everybody got together and then possibly do another one in the fall. With the way things are internationally and then also at see politically, i can where they would do june and. Robably early fall i doubt if they do a third one, reallyforeign economy is strengthening. Europe is a bit that it is hazardous and the fed is trapped. I have said this so many times before, but they are trapped between the domestic mandate and the nature of the world we live in right now. Mark the nature of the world we live in is a perfect fit it to my next chart, which is the yield spread between germany and france. As we know, it is a spread that in been widening, the widest a couple of years, reflecting possibility of the ecb this year might talk when it comes to tapering and political risk. Are we witnessing the beginning of widening spread between the core and periphery in europe . Dan yes. You know, the political side, pretend to focus on our own political setting, but the political setting in europe is much more confused now then it has been in many years, starting with brexit. Theave the french election, situation in germany, and remember, your spread shows a widening between france and germany. There are some questions in germany know of all places, and then you look to the periphery and you see in the markets in relation to the calmness we have had, there is more dispersion now as the uncertainty grows, essentially about the strength of the European Union and the cohesion staying together. Hopeful thatm very the European Union will strengthen, come together. I was very sorry to see what happened with the u. K. On the brexit vote. Realistic ando be markets. You look at this and say, ok, i wish one thing but i had the other setting on my hands, so therefore, i will be cautious. A lot of people are doing that, including me. , will there be a lot more corporate issuance this year . Q flagged you were worried about the thin nature of the market at the moment. Dan well, excellent question. My answer, which is not a hack a highion answer, not conviction answer, while people and goand maturities, below investment grade, they will do it. They are going to lock up the money at a reasonable rate. We are not at the lows, but historically, we ought a very low level and as long as you can do it, you may as well. Is my attitude. For somebody who is in this short and asked me what to do, i say, issue while you could. Vonnie and you would be buying . Dan no. Vonnie ok. [laughter] not. I would dont misunderstand that carried it would depend on the term structure of what they do, but it they were issuing long misunderstand that. It would depend on the term structure what they do. If there issuing longterm, it would depend on the price may be. Vonnie we have to leave it there. Our thanks to dan fuss of loomis sayles. We will have special coverage of the fed decision. Ahead, blackstone backs Invitation Homes. Shares are up almost 1 . We are alive with the ceo. Live with the ceo. This is bloomberg. Live from new york and london, i am vonnie quinn. Barton. Am mark we are keeping an eye on oil trade weekly inventories in the u. S. About to cross. Julie . A leg lower kind of numbers coming out in a moment. Industry data last night showed a building inventory, so we will see if you us Data Confirms that and it is a much larger build than estimated at six. 4 7 Million Barrels versus around the 2. 5 million that were estimated, 6. 4 7 Million Barrels versus the 2. 5 million that were estimated. We have seen a decrease in cushing and increase overall, bullish for oil prices, but the initial reaction is pretty sharply glower. Let me run you through the rest. Gasoline inventories building more than estimated at 2. 9 Million Barrels and they select and this select rising unexpectedly. This does look like a negative report for oil. Oil painting on to gains, up about. 5 of 1 . Takes a while, it for traders to digest numbers so we will watch it. I will be back at 11 00 to give you an update. Vonnie i know and i am looking forward to it. Thanks. Thoughts check in at first word news with emma chandra in washington, d. C. Choiceresident trumps for Supreme Court continues the contents of confirmation. Gorsuch willh meet on capitol hill. Senator coons told bloomberg key once the nomination cap at their shop. Senator coons i intend to give gorsuch a fair [indiscernible] that judge garland was denied and after that hearing, i will call for a vote. I think we should have a hearing and vote and at that point, we will sue it happens. Decide toemocrats filibuster, republicans would need 60 votes to end it unless they about to change the role. In the u k, half of british folks say the u. S. Should go ahead despite nationwide protest against the. It found that 49 back the president s visit to the u. K. , while 36 say it should be canceled. The report says a new u. K. Trade agreement with noneuropean countries will not come close to offset the impact of leaving the eu. The National Institute of social and Economic Research predicts that leaving the market could lead to a longterm reduction in trade. Basic increased trade from you deals with boost trade by less than 2 . Prime minister in india is looking to short [indiscernible] they are offering tax cuts and boosting spending from some of indias poorest citizens. They plan to spend 59 billion to build modernized airports, robles and roads. Roadways. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am emma chandra. This is bloomberg. Mark . Mark thanks. Stoneahead, lack invitation home blackstone invitation gnomes kidding the public market. We are live with the chief executive, next. Shares up. This is bloomberg. Live from london and new york. I am mark barton. Vonnie i am vonnie quinn. Black stone feeling confident about the u. S. Housing market. Homes andd invitation has begun trading today on the new york stock exchange. Shares up about 1 , exactly 1 and 20 cents. Invitation homes ceo joins me from the new york stock exchange. John, congratulations. Is this a sign of confidence . John i think it is a great sign in the rental housing market. It has been a great opportunity to build a business and we are at the right stage between our organic growth and providing Great Customer service and it is time to go public to have investors. Vonnie what is the plan for Invitation Homes . You are looking to raise capital, to do what . By more homes for lease . Buy more homes for lease . John we are really working on providing the overall residential experience and filling out our margins and growing our revenue. It is the right time for as to be public and bring in new investors. Cut frankly, the right time to focus on what we do well. Vonnie a little background, founded in 2012, almost 1 billion, 500 million for sales in the first five months. It is a good time to take advantage of depressed housing prices. Does this mean housing prices are over and behind us in the United States . John fundamentals and singlefamily housing, whether for rent or ownership, at a point where they are full. We are 95 occupied. The business itself, 15. 8 million singlefamily homes for rent in the United States. It has always been an industry. We are drinking institutional sponsorship, editor best practices, professional level of fit and finish, extending what people have come to know and enjoy in the apartment industry now in Single Family lifestyle living. Vonnie what is the difference between you and a regular ourlord, if any, into primary customers . John the average age of our customers is around 39 years old, tend to be a working couple with children. What is important to them is or lifestyle that is important to any young couple growing their family. They want to be close to where they work, a good school, Good Transportation networks. They are in the process of going from Apartment Living to relate the residential living space. Vonnie what is the average price on the rental from Invitation Homes and what is the margin for you . John around 1600. Our margins are around 62. 1 . Vonnie pretty decent. Has blackstone held onto a chunk . John all proceeds went to pay debt. Blackstone continues to own 100 of their stock. Vonnie what is next, what markets are you in and are you looking to get into other markets . Now . Ou happy john we love our 13 markets. 95 of our portfolio has over 2000 homes in the markets, so we love where we are. E are very local all of our investment professionals are in the market. Our teams are in the market and are operating teams in the market. Our business is simple. Anduy, renovate, operate rent a wonderful families and we continue to build and develop best actresses in the markets. Actors in the market. Vonnie now that we have a new administration, you are on the rental side, so mortgages do not feature but what are your thoughts about potential new developmenturban secretary . John it is too early. I do not know him, so i cannot say i have a particular perspective but we are excited to work with the new administration. Housing is an important part of the continuing for shelter and singlefamily homes we believe late a critical part in providing Housing Solutions for families. Vonnie who are your competitors and how do you take them on . John we have a number of public fears. We are all early stage. American homes for rent, colony star, just to name a few. Vonnie how do look to compete with them in the beneficial way to you . Businessall do differently and we do the same thing in the fact that we are trying to drive best practices, working as part of the national renting Housing Council from technology to best practices for consumer needs. It is about at this point trying to provide a consistent experience and lifting the level of life for mom and pops and other nonprofessional owners and operators in the market. Vonnie congratulations. The stock is up 1 , priced to perfection. We look forward to speaking to you in the future. G, ceo ofohn bartlin Invitation Homes. I am mark barton with vonnie quinn. This is your Global Business report. At an interview, why he says days of unbridled trait are over. Vonnie apple delivers a blockbuster earnings report. We will bring you the numbers. Mark President Trump nominates neil gorsuch. We will look at whether democrats will try to stop his nomination. General electric chief officer warns the time of unbridled trait is over. He says it is not just the rise of donald trump but a consulate of forces. He spoke in an interview with john mikel late. See globalization from 30,000 feet at the resort, townhouse or think tank, do not know think about how globalization works. It is country by country, deal by deal. I wish it was all free trade and all that other stuff but that is not really are. The new u. K. Say trade agreements with noneu countries will not come close to offsetting the impact of leaving the eu. The National Institute of economic and social research critics that leaving the Single Market could lead to a longterm reduction in British Trade up to 30 . They say increased trait tribute deals would boost trade by less than 3 . Boostdeals would trade by less than 2 . Thats practical over place ted budd, who had been in the role for one year. Over attracted new fans the holidays. They beat estimates. They saw two. 5 million more phones in the Third Quarter than the year before. 2. 5 million more phones in the Third Quarter than the year before. Vonnie time for our bloomberg take. Today, we look at the Supreme Court. President donald trump has nominated neil gorsuch and concerns that he will be [indiscernible] and will not be are to the left like previous republican nominees. To the left like previous republican nominees. Until voluntary retirement or on the courtacancy has raised concerns that partisan politics is tainting the Supreme Courts work. The courts decisions on issues, including Race Relations and president ial reach, have become polarized and the public Approval Rating is sliding. President trump called fortunes for to resign after she nsberg tor gi resign and then she regretted her quotes and illadvised comments. Antonin scalia it died unexpectedly about when you ago, and lawmakers work determined not to let judge carlin take his place. Nominees who control the ninemember course nominees control the ninemember court since 1969. It has shifted the nations political direction, from brown board of education and grove versus wade roe versus wade. To evolve farices from the president ideologies with no fear retribution. Critics note that it lacks external supervision and theres no recourse when they appear to violate ethics laws or hear cases in which they have conflicts of interest create reformers say it one solution is term limits. Either way, the Supreme Court is front and center in u. S. Politics. You can read more at coming up on you can read more at bloomberg. Com. Mark still ahead, we will talk to carla hill. Will President Trump put the u. K. On a fast track to a bilateral trade deal . This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. I am vonnie quinn in new york. Mark from london, i am mark barton. Quick shares of toyota. Julie . Julie all of the automakers in down 11. 3 ,oday, the estimate was for decline of 2 and toyota shares, even though they are not down that much on an absolute basis, but. 6 of 1 , u. S. Shares taking a sharply lower after the numbers crossed. It has been an overall disappointing reporting period for the automakers in the u. S. Deliveries down 11 , down 3. 8 at gm, ford doing the best with the decline of. 7 1 and ford shares higher slightly but gm and fiat trading lower. Vonnie julie hyman, thank you. The latest out of washington is the Senate Finance committee and has awarded the approval of Steve Mnuchin and tom price. That will head now to the full senate committee, but lets look at trade for the moment. We had an interview with ge ceo immelt and we talked about how trade is becoming less globalized and more block by block these days. Ambassadors talk to us about the issues. Carla hills, former u. S. Trade representative under resident hws, former hud secretary under president ford and a lot of dealings of mexico, to for joining us. What can you make of the current direction toward protectionism . Carla it is a big mistake, particularly what our country and globally. We have opened our markets since world war ii, and asked the results, or gdp has climbed 1 trillion according to the Peterson Institute for international economics, raising the average Family Income by more than 1000 and we did not , with 5 urn that off of the World Population producing about 20 of its output, we want to continue to competitive, productive as you possibly can, and that means to keep markets open. Under you served Republican Administration at a time when perhaps that was just starting to kick off and idea of nafta and all these trade organizations working well. In the years since then, how have they were have it worked so well or is it true that we need to rethink nafta . It needs a reshape, 23 years old. Was billions, i think, trendsetting agreement. Be eliminated all tariffs and theourselves countries, we opened up the agricultural market to mexico, which had not been done globally, and we initiated really good intellectual Property Protection wills, which had not been done globally. We opened up services markets, and we had a good dispute settlement mechanism. Our trade has expanded about sixfold. Mexico is our second largest export destination. Today, we somewhat to mexico the results all the rest of latin america. In fact, we somewhat to mexico them resell to friends then france, than we so to germany and the netherlands for we dont want a hostile neighbor. A relationship with mexico strong and start with canada. North american region could be the most competitive in the world going forward. Vonnie ambassador hill, [indiscernible] the federal government in mexico is talking to private sector and other actors and they will last 90 days. That is a process simultaneous internals. s own process. It looks like there is a push to keep relations open with mexico. Is there something the current president could do or has done that will damage the relationship forever . Carla yes, there are things he could and should do. As you pointed out, the north American Free trade agreement. As negotiated 23 years ago we do not have digital trade 23 years ago. You did not even have a cell phone, and we dont have ruled of governing that. On thenot have energy table because mexico at the time had the constitutional prohibition about opening the energy market. There are a lot of things we could do. It is true that nafta is 23 years old. That is old. We could build on it but we dont want to tear it up. We want to use it as a foundation for making north america more competitive and that will be good for all of us. Vonnie what about china . It seems we have not got any insults to china from the current administration, but theres no telling whether that is coming or not. How concerned are you about our trade relationship with china, and whether we can drink some jobs back as the current president says from china to the u. S. . Have a goodnt to relationship with china, the second largest economy in the world and rules that govern both chinas trade and art trade. I was hoping you would get the biological investment treaty done the bilateral investment treaty done, so that chinese investors would be more informed, and then we could build on that and move into the services area. We are better off in the United States when our businesses know what the rules are. Keep in mind that of our 300,000 exporters, 90 are defined as small and mediumsized businesses. They need to know what the rules are or they had a barrier, so it is important. Vonnie i wanted to ask you about the u. K. Because of brexit in the last year and they know how to negotiate all kinds of bilateral and trade deal straight how difficult will it be and what will the u. S. U. K. Trade deal look like when it is completed and who benefits most . A winwinshould be situation, all trade agreements should be whenwin. I should listen to what you need and you should listen to what i needed, and we should have quiet discussions with england right now, even though it will be a very long time for them to be able to renegotiate their relationship with the European Union. Vonnie a quick question about hud. You work the secretary yourself and you faced opposition when you were being appointed. Go ben carson be a good will ben carson be a good choice . Carla i think he has a sensitivity to the problems faced by our lowerincome people. I think our nation wants to provide opportunities. Resident forward, with whom i serve, under whom i said, was and whencious of that its make Housing Available to beyondwho are housing is their means and there are constructive ways to approach that subject. , thank ambassador hills you for joining us from washington, d. C. Mark great interview. Coming up on the european close, big day for european stocks. Stocks are rising, first day in four. The market close is next. This is bloomberg. Mark it is 11 a. M. In new york, 4 00 p. M. In london. 30 minutes left in the trading day. I mark barton. Vonnie and im vonnie quinn. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Mark we are going to take you from new york to london to paris and covering stories out of washington and abu dhabi. Here are the top stories were following on the bloomberg and around the world. In markets, european stocks are rising on optimistic forecasts from Companies Like al like apple and volvo. The stoxx 600 having its best day since november. Vonnie in geopolitics, is the era of free trade ending before president on trump won the white house . We will hear from General Electric ceo jeff and melt. And the price of leaving the European Union how the Parliament Debate on article 50 is exposing deep divides among tories. Mark
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