Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Market Makers 20150911

Decline on the day of the dax in. 8 , asdown 79 points, well. The russian ruble is falling after the central bank there held the benchmark rank and changed for the first time this year, at 11 . 68. 08 to six. For the brazilian real continues to trade a little bit lower, unchanged at the moment. That country getting downgraded yesterday. Financial markets in trouble there. The euro going to 1. 1270. The yield in the yes, dust in the u. S. , 2. 2 to the fiveyear 73 basis points for your twoyou appeared we watching reaction to Goldman Sachs suggestion that oil could go as low as 20 per barrel. Not the best case, but they say it could happen. If supply does not drop faster than demand. Now, west texas intermediate, 44. 70. Brent crude at 47. 71. A lot of chapter this morning about the 11 republican candidates who will appear in next weeks primetime president ial debate. Among them will be Carly Fiorina the former hewlettpackard ceo not among the 10 candidates they for the main debate last month on fox. Cnn compiling pulse for the last two months to choose leading candidates, but no word on exactly why they decided to go with 11. Is it because she is a woman . Is there a triumph factor . Pundit who would know and is never boarding is chuck todd, host of nbcs meet the press. Check joins us on the tmobile phone line. Switch your business to the today. Er what is it with Carly Fiorina . Why is she suddenly the darling of the media and into this debate . Check partly because cnn made a mistake in its criteria. They had a bizarre renteria that was going to include using polls the were conducted before first debate they had a bizarre criteria. That made it impossible for up cracking the top 10, because their just were not enough polls conducted after the second debate. Part of it is 9 11 and labor day. All of us do fewer national becauseound this time of vacation issues and travel issues. Cnns criteria was banking it so that she did get a bounce after the first debate. That balance was not going to be reflected in the polling it so they made a mistake in their criteria, so they created a second criteria kind of a mess it comes across like an inkind contribution to fiorina. But if you look at polling post that debate, particularly in some of the early states, fiorina is easily in the top 10. They had a mistake and had to figure out how to correct it. Now they are doing this to simply avoid a lawsuit. I think they should boot some of the off the stage. But they created a second criteria. It is ridiculous, but this is what they get for creating the criteria in the first place. Do some of these people drop out . When do we start to get a more reasonable field . Money, buts usually because of super pac and the fact that you can find a sugar mama or sugar daddy to write you a big fat check to keep your campaign afloat and i think a lot of these guys are hesitant to get up because they do not want to make the mistake that most people think jim t made. Made here and he was running for president in 2011 at he did not do well in a poll in august. He did not have money and dropped out. As we learned, a lot of candidates who were in that same boat in august and september got a shot in taking on romney watch a month later. A lot of people think he could have been the nominee if he had gotten his turn to take on romney. They are saying, i know it looks bleak now, but Rick Santorum thought that, too. Michael i know you do not use polls to choose your guests. Who is on meet the press this weekend . Ck chris christie. You know, he got a little bit of his mojo back. I have him. I will have bernie sanders. His numbers have been surging. And the last ambassador that the. S. Had to syria, robert ford when the civil war began, the president yanked him. Michael you can watch it on nbc and Bloomberg Radio, 11 00 and 3 00. Speaking of syria, we are going to sandy berger, bill clintons National Security adviser about what should be done better and how it is affecting the refugee crisis across europe. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance ken good morning on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. We say early good morning to those of you , bloomberg90. Resnick. O you by cohen he can be heard to navigate through economic uncertainty. If your Business Needs Industry Insight and transformative advice, find out why at cohen resnick. A toxic mix of really interesting experience with jpmorgan asset management. David stubbs joins us right now. Use the word unconstrained, david, and i think about your theory in your work in the fundamental spirit what is the mood of the market now . Is it able market rather broken in the u. S. Or europe . Is it a bull market broken or can it be a bull market that repairs . David i think it can repair. It is up to commodities. The ones we see sentiments stabilize, i argue there are signs of that. With the chinese equity bubble, once we get past a thought in commodities, i think investors will refocus. Tom how do you know into a cumulate Energy Shares . View orsachs has a jpmorgan has a vp at when the you know to begin to buy cheaper shares . I do not really seeing the oil market returning to what it has been like in the last couple of decades. A mentally changed, and i think we are in for a multiyour time of low oil prices to that makes me question the dividends of these firms. You have to be very careful before dipping your total in the water. On the fixed income side, what were seeing in oil prices is an in amount of stress. Side, a lot income of our fixed income funds are funny great opportunity in short order long side. There will be some winners from this turmoil, and there will be a lot of losers. Michael the big companies, integrated majors, we see they do the best because they can make money downstream, if not an exploration. David i think there are plenty of ways to play this environment. Looking at sectors, this ultimately has it has hurt equity earnings, investment, and employment. We have seen the volatility. Our view is that this secures the recovery globally in most of the developed world where there are oilusers. We have seen this before. It takes at least six months for consumers he hit you to adjust, maybe even a year. This drop in oil prices is fueling Income Growth in places like the u. K. , were that has been absent for years. Tom we will see the further impact in energy. David stubbs with jpmorgan as it management. Michael mckee, we are thrilled you are with us. Honored to be with you on this september 11. We will have a number of moments of silence is through the 8 00 and 9 00 hour as we remember 14 years ago, september 11, 2001. A quick data check dow futures, 48. Futures, negative seven. 1, per ounce106 1106 per ounce. Tom good morning, everyone. September 11 and ground zero in lower manhattan. We will be with you for the next two hours. To our top headlines. David g the Iran Nuclear Deal will be adopted on october 19 now that it survived a congressional challenge. Senate democrats hadnt the president and major for policy victory here the republican resolution to disapprove the deal fell two votes short. Sanctions relief would come later after irans first to comply. Cnn is including Carly Fiorina and the next republican president ial debate, as mentioned to her she will be among the 11 candidates in the prime to event wednesday night. She was not among the 10 candidates in the debate last month. Oil prices could fall as low as 20 a barrel. The bank is lowering its work is for crude again and sees a global abundance in 2016 due to growing opec production, Goldman Sachs says. Julie we have movers to watch. Marvinknowledge he l technology is one of them. They came out with preliminary , but there is an investigation of the companys board has done into internal controls over revenue recognition issues. This is about the management operating style to the question is whether that style resulted in open flow of information and communication to set an appropriate tone for an effective control environment. In other words, it was somehow at fault here in oversight. It is a little bit unclear. This kind of uncertainty is never good. We are looking at another company, a maker of fiber optic systems are those shares are down very sharply. The company is the secondquarter earnings missing estimates. Analysts talking about that it is the datacom business that is weak. The ceo left, and then ended new ceo. That is happening. Finally, another potential deal in the pharma industry. Towiss drugmaker is in talks acquire zs pharma. Investors are not quite sure that this deal would be a good idea. To treat akes a drug condition where you have too much potassium in the blood purity can be lifethreatening. Coming up, you are looking at sammy berger. Tom and mike will be speaking to him about the refugee crisis. His is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and streaming on your tablet and your cell. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Right now, live in our studio with our morning call, here is bill maloney. Bill good morning. Many markets trading lower, led by declines in germany and spain. That weakness spilling over to the u. S. On the economic front in the demand plus or. 1 . 2 00, monthly budgets statement appeared after the bell is my, Restoration Hardware forecast estimates. Zumiez down 3. 1 . Confirmed talks. A 60 drop. Th earnings, Mattress Firm cut its forecast here at kroger, look for that around 8 30. Upgrades and downgrades. Bank of america, jb hunt, Norfolk Southern raised to buy. Goldman sachs, planes allamerican pipeline cut to sale. Chevron raised to overweight. Church dwight cut to sell at ubs and Motorola Solutions cut to underperform and wells fargo. Tom thanks so much. You can find that on your terminal. Invesco have a question about alternative investments . Ask the expert, walter davis, who has more than 20 years of industry experience. Send him your alternatives questions. Do that at invesco. Com asktb heexpert. David stubbsave with us. We have been talking about whether or not a fed rate increase would be good for the markets, bad for the markets are marked chamber at Brown Brothers harriman making an interesting point, that just a debate has now become bad for the market. He says pressing down on the markets, it would be good just to get it over with. David there is certainly something to that. It is exercising a huge amount of time to think about the implications. I do not think initial liftoff would be overly damaging for the markets, as long as it was carried out by a central bank that was clear and wanda had not prematurely judged the conditions for liftoff. Michael most of us have opined on this, many suggesting they should wait, and they seem to think that the fed will go into overdrive and raise rates too much, too fast. But they keep telling us they will much of anything like that. I do not they why do they not want to believe them . David a lot of people are general, scared, in because there have been so many years without a rate increase. Some of the markets are pricing in extremely gradual tightening for the federal funds rate. There is always uncertainty about what this will do. With a long end up the bond selloff . Not move atlong end all . Obviously, more like the latter. There will not be a huge selloff even Global Conditions in europe and japan. What will jamie dimon know . He has one of the most twisted resumes in the business. It is so attached to the work of. Obert heilbronn where are we in this great distortion within the behavior and the history being made . David it is incredibly this ing to deviate to debate this. The rate hike, are they going to take it as a sign of health and the economy, that the fed is confident and we can get on with things . Or will they see it as a tightening of conditions . The forward would suggest that people are going to start to take out loans because people will be more confident, and it could accelerate the economy. The latter is the nightmare scenario, whereby trying to raise Interest Rates and create a buffer to cut them in bad times, you make a recession more likely. There is something to that. Consumers are still traumatized by the great depression. If you look at the ways they are trying to get exposure to the economy, you find a group of people who are not overly confident in the future. Under these conditions, what do you tell people on your desks or what do tell your clients about how they are going to make money over the next six to 12 month . David we still believe the Global Economy is gradually healing and that you can maintain equity exposure to the u. S. And japan for very different reasons. But investors must lower expectations. You will not get in the next three years what you and the last three or the first five or whatever. The nexty tactic for phase of economic expansion. In the u. S. , the how housing market, for example. In japanesechanges Corporate Culture are very exciting for what that means for return on equity. And it valuation rerating you might get her tom david stubbs is with j. P. Morgan asset management. Thank you so much. Instead back to the201k of the 401k. Smaller returns. As long as your cash is not in rubles, you are all right. Tom we are never retiring here. Futures at negative three. Dow futures, 26. 24. S h we will have a moment of silence numeral 8 46at a. M. Ishaeldavid g s this bloomberg surveillance. Thousands of migrants are walking from hungary to austria. Meanwhile, activists say theitions are inhumane in five cams were hungary is holding and registering refugees. Human rights watch say many are being held outside wealth out food, water, or medical help. Brazils state have an oil producer is new king in the global junk bond market. Billionbber us has 56 dollars of outstanding securities, making it the Worlds Largest noninvestment grade corporate issuer petrobras. It has been downgraded. The movie by netflix will be screen this weekend at the toronto film festival, a drama about an african warlord appeared it could make a streaming Company Eligible for an oscar. Customers can see it starting october 16. Julie a quick market check this morning. A quick data check. If you look at u. S. Futures, seeing some declines, continuing declines from the past several days. The 10year yield is falling. 2. 2 . For the First Time Since january. Lets get back to mike in the radio studio. [no audio] michael when it is time to change the summer session, talk with a broker dealer. 8664623688. With the latest number on Producer Prices. Vinny the Producer Price index unchanged in august here going into the report, the wall street consensus for a decline of. 1 , excluding food and energy, core ppi, core wholesale prices up. 3 . Yearoveryear, the ppi down. 8 . Back to new york. Michael that is interesting, tom. Ppi was supposed to decline, and that the fed has an excuse if it would like to use it. It isnot a whole lot, but something to her tom we have the michigan numbers at 10 00 a. M. This morning. What does that signal . Michael the fed generally does not watch those indicators. As outlined greenspan once said, we watch what they do, not what they say. Members get offended by headlines a lot. Numbers do have inflation and them, and we watch the expectation numbers. Tom we are moving to a moment of silence at 8 46. Speak of 9 11 with our guest in a minute. , first andr joins us he is identified with the clinton administration, president bill clintons administration. On the tmobile phone line, switch your business today. Sandy, thrilled to speak to you this morning. I would suggest not only is syria unraveling, but the dialogue on syria is unraveling right now. What do you look for from washington as we see refugees and migrants in europe, and we see the warfare continue in syria . Tody number one, we have step up to the plate. Time for us to lecture them about taking the refugees. We took in a tight 1800 last year, so we have some credibility. Number two, ultimately, we have to go to the source of the bleeding in syria. Until that bleeding is stopped in some way, this will pour into europe and the on. Europe itself will have to work out a structure of processing and sharing the refugees. It will be very difficult for europe, all sorts of strains thomas fears of cultural changes, fears of economic threats. But this is really a test of whether europe stays together as a united europe. Michael i want to ask about the refugees and a moment. First, the root cause. Serious is the u. S. Has to step up and the Current Administration has made the case to whom do we step up and with whom . Where thereation are a lot of factions and none are necessarily the good guys. Sandy that is true. The conflict was once about transforming syria. Then it became about transforming the middle east. Now it is about transforming europe. We are not going to solve this problem until we try to do something about syria. That is why we had to take a more activist, more forceful position, be prepared to work with others to support those moderate syrians who want to see and assad tom you spent a good amount of time as our National Security advisor. To the stereotype of lets take other government, you are in reality of a Statement Like that. Is it as simple as, can we take out mr. Assad . Or is that fiction . Sandy it is not a matter of taking out assad. It is a matter of helping to , aate a pattern in syria force that can defend itself side andssad on one isis on the other side. Assad seems to be losing ground. Our allies,ry, with to solidify the middle ground and provide a nofly zone where people can have some safety, where the bombers and helicopters cannot go, and try and go from there. We have to deal with the refugees, but we cannot ultimately deal with it if we do not stop the hemorrhage. Michael how do europeans deal with the refugees, given the fact that so many economic migrants are mixed in with those who would like asylum . Sandy it is a challenge. They are totally unprepared for it. There are two kinds of migrants. Political refugees, mostly from syria, who clearly are fleeing for fear of prosecution, persecution, which is the definition of political refugee. Then there is a flood of economic migrants who are going to find a better life. To sandys come back berger, former National Security advisor for president clinton to it futures are you and they futures are negative sense. To futures are 42. The euro is 1. 12783. Michael lets check world and national headlines. Michael solemn ceremonies are taking place right now in new york city to observe the 9 11 attacks. Ceremonies are also taking is inching slow, pennsylvania, and at the pentagon. President obama will visit fort meade and maryland to honor u. S. Troops. Vice president died and said he could commit fully to being president. This is nearly four months after his sons passing. In an emotional interview was Stephen Colbert last night, he said he did not just get up following his sons death. David g time for morning mustread. This comes from the washington post, written by david cameron, francois hollande, and angela merkel. , they said we did not reach the nuclear deal in the expectation that irans external policy would change any time soon. But it does address the threat from Irans Nuclear program and may open the way to recognition by iran that collaboration with its neighbors is better than confrontation a really interesting oped. This a deal was hatched by six nations. You had three prominent european leaders defending it here. Last night we had this vote in the senate. Democrats voted to pass it, and of now that there will not be a veto threat. Mitch mcconnell saying he will bring this up for another vote next week during the expectation is that the vote will go the same way. Interesting, a big for policy victory for the president , one that is entirely partisan. He had not one single republican vote. Thater passage, they said we, david cameron, francois theynde and angela merkel, used unacceptable language. This has been something very important throughout all of the years of debate over this deal. As we said Democratic Leaders in the senate trying to wrangle their colleagues about the question of whether they can go along with it because of the threat to israel. Julie hyman well, it is happening. Were seeing what happens. It has not really been answered and addressed by the iranians. Come coming up next, howard let and it. Cantor fitzgeralds chairman, who lost a lot of folks on 9 11. Howard let tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance on Television Worldwide and on radio worldwide. An amazing. Technology worldwide. Bloomberg surveillance on cyrus 119 nationwide on sirius. We have been talking about syria with sandy berger. But were three minutes away from a first moment of silence. Of course, president obama with a moment of silence at the white house, as well. Sandy, you were not on the white house watch in 2001, but you are actively involved in what we do about terror in this country. Are we betterprepared now, not from that morning in 2001, but are we better monitored and prepared than we were, say, five years ago . Sandy and some effects, the answer is yes. In some respects, i think the threat may he higher. I think were betterprepared in the sense of a catastrophic attack like we saw at the World Trade Center, a will havent planned, organized catastrophe a wellplanned, organized catastrophe, and our systems are better for that. Now there is a different threat. The islamic extremist threat that is brewing in the middle east. People coming back to the United States are people in the United States. I think that is the more serious and more difficult threat to deal with. It is not just one cell. It is scattered. It is a much harder challenge for our Law Enforcement. But i think the American People have to recognize that we are really in a higher threat environment. Of the homeland effect is resilience. We do not like being vulnerable, but we have to accept that there is a level of risk that goes with the kind of crazy world we are in. Tom it is a changed world lives two your in the last spirit i go back to the 10th anniversary of the remembrance, where michael and i were at ground zero. That was really something, seen president bush and president obama together. Michael dedicating the construction site for the open. Al, which is now interesting enough, for the first time last year, and now it is open again this year, the general public can go to the site on the day of 9 11. Later this afternoon or around 3 00 new york time, they will let the public back into the 9 11 memorial site. All of yound for worldwide, i cannot say enough about the transformation, the architecture really coming together in what we see at ground zero in lower manhattan. What so proudly we hailed at the twilights last gleaming, and the rockets red glare, the bombs bursting in air, gave proof through the night that our flag was still there o say does that starspangled banner yet wave oer the land of the free and the home of the brave . Cherbour[applause] [bell rings] [drums and bagpipes] ein being played by the bagpipers at the 9 11 memorial site. A moment of silence just a moment of go. The National Anthem was performed as president and mrs. Obama stood on the lawn of the white house observing a moment of silence. Tom we begin down in new york, the mentioning of the names, the reading of the names begins, as never 14 is michael it is never easy, no. Berger is with us. He was National Security adviser to president bill clinton. We were talking about terrorism in america. Area, at this point, if we even know who the enemy is we talk about radical islam or fundamentalist, things like that. But who is it that poses the most danger to the United States . Sandy in one respect, i think we have improved our homeland security. Number onenow the priority, our Intelligence Community has it as the number one priority. In major respects, we area a long way from where we were in 2000 and 2011. Jihadimy now is radical ideology that stems from the which is being festered in syria and elsewhere. Directly, is not sourced directly to the United States. But there are 250 americans who have gone over to fight with syria. Some of them will come back. Do they come back with intent to this still gripped by antiwestern jihadi philosophy . Perhaps. The other threat that is externally difficult to Law Enforcement is the self radicalized threat. We have young people that are on the internet, seemingly fairly normal, and suddenly over a month or two he come radicalized by the most sophisticated Internet Communications in the world, in the world. That has been developed by the islamic groups. They may be troubled kids. They may be on the outside. They become, as we have seen, they become attackers. Berger, former National Security advisor to president bill clinton, joining phone on the tmobile line. Tmobile at work, switch your business to the uncarrier today. And we have brett here. Own story have your we have our background of what happened that day. You immediately went to work when you heard the news. Was this out this correspondent for Fox News Channel based out of atlanta, covering the southeast in south and central america. I was called to back up reporters in new york after the first plane hit. After the second plane hit, we were told to drive. The third plane hit, and we were rerouted to the pentagon and started doing live shots for fox affiliates around the country with the burning pentagon behind me that day. And i never went back to atlanta. That was the beginning of my time. I became the pentagon correspondent soon thereafter and cover that for six years. And then the white house and then the anchor chair. It chanced my life, but it obviously was the biggest story any of us had covered up until then. It obviously changed the world in which we lived in that they forward. Tell us where we are now from your daily reporting was special report and in how we report terrorism now. Changes with the visible threat like al qaeda versus a new come a less visible, threat. Bret i think it is splintered, but i think it may actually be more very lent a very lent virulent. The communities in the selfradicalization is really prevalent on the internet, and it creates these lone wolf attackers. Isis has only gotten bigger. I think this story of intelligence and what was out there is really going to be interesting. Thanks so much. Fox news sunday. Is with Cantor Fitzgerald. I will be over at his offices here after surveillance of this morning as they continue to raise more than 280 million. With i starts notice on september 2, jimmy khoo and the allison lutnic fundraiser, it is not just about september 11, is it . Howard no, we know we can help out as we have been through so much. One of the charities would like to take care of is the families of guys who get hurt defending the country. So a guy has a horrible event with a mine or Something Like that, we try to go take care of his family. That is one of the many charities. We care about 150 charities throughout the year. Tom one of them is someone we lost at bloomberg. Howard, meeting your son a few years ago, who is now in school. 14 yearson, this does not get easier every year, does it . Howard no, right around this time of year, i start getting a little edgy. There are so many people who i loved and cared for that i lost. My brother gary died at 36. My best friend doug died at 39. So many people i cared for. They live inside a vp or do you keep their memories positive and alive. You. Ey live inside of you keep their memories positive and alive. It is always there. Michael i was talking with somebody about this being the 14th anniversary, and they say there have been people born since then who do not really have the experience of 9 11. Sonsndering from your perspective and his friends, how has it affected them . What is it like for young people . Howard i was at his school yesterday and gave a talk here the wrongness of it or they want to be part of it. People want to be a part of american history, so their hearts and minds are much more open than you imagined. If they know what happened. Oryou are four or five three, you will not have felt it the way that we did. What i find is young people are people really even across the country, they want to touch it and be part of it, and they want as much information as they can so they can feel connected to americans. Tom we just got a wonderful another firm that was affected, substantially affected. Thomas scholz, thank you for. Hat note michael howard, i am wondering, and your experience, how have things changed for not just people in the financial industry, but people in new york, people in america as someone on the frontlines of it, how do you think it has changed this country . Howard we did not know that we were under attack it we did not know it to you see in the newspaper, you see the pictures about a terrorist attack in israel or something and it seemed distant or far away. , andere i am going to work it was my sons first day of kindergarten and that is why i get to be here alive, and they attacked and my friends and people i worked with were killed. Now i think we all know the hatred that is out there. It is always possible that someone could attack something you are associated with. It just hardened the world. It hardened america, hardened new york. We know there are crazy people who just want to try to hurt us. It changed us from the inside, made us less naive, less beautiful. A great have done such job with those at Cantor Fitzgerald. Give us the Forward Motion of . Hat you hope to do howard right after september 11, i knew i needed to take care of the families. I took the money i had left that was outside Cantor Fitzgerald, and we started the Cantor Fitzgerald relief fund to take care of the families, those who lost. We raised 180 million. Raised. Lion was we started a charity data or last year, we raised 12 million. We like to take their different organizations and charities. We like to take care of people who want to take terror of others. We are looking to take care of organizations that are deeply connected, that want to touch. We give away 100 of the money we raise. Cantor fitzgerald and the partners and myself, we cover all expenses. Like today, were going to raise 12 million. We are going to give it away. Our employees waived their days pay. Today will be one of the busiest days of the year, and they always waive their pay so we can give away every penny. , we likeedicine childrens organizations, and we like taking care of men and women in the military. Tom howard, i go on your floor. When i pick up the phone, it always loses money. But you will have a starlet go out there and she can raise michael mckee, Howard Lutnick can go out there michael that is not a starlet. Tom it is extraordinary. Michael tell us how people can contribute. Torrelief. Org. We will match, if an employee or someone at large makes a donation at the website, we will match that. They can pick one of the dozens of charities. We take care of trauma. There are 150 charities. We will direct the money to one of those charities and help them take care of others. To do isto to is turn the worst day for me into something beautiful, so i have a purpose today instead of just wanting to pull the covers over my head and get into a fetal position. We can try to help others that are out there trying to make the world a better place. Go Howard Lutnick, chairman and chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald. It is amazing, the orchestration. The good people of Cantor Fitzgerald. May a point out that they have bloomberg everywhere. You cannot turn around without a bloomberg terminal. Twothirds of the firm was wiped out, including members of his own family. What he has made out of it is absolutely amazing. The firm has come back. But the Charity Efforts they is 9 11, of this course been 14 years ago today the United States was attacked. We do not forget it we remember every year. Tom we welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. A special day for new york city, washington, and for a field in pennsylvania. We will have some guests for you on economics, finance, and international relations. But of course, we remember with moments of silence, one coming up here in about a minute and a half. The reading of the names continues. Lets listen. My uncle. We miss you and we love you. God bless you. And my grandfather. We miss you at home. Grandma misses you more and more every day. Names asreading of the it continues each and every year anniversary. 4th it is exceptional what they have done downtown. Onas there three weeks ago the floor of the Freedom Tower is people waited to go up. Michael it reminds you that americans are a very resilient people. We brought back that part of new york city. The pentagon has been rebuilt. There is a memorial now in shanksville. The country has moved on. And we hope for the better. About what hasre happened in downtown new york city later in the program. We are just about ready for the second of six moments of silence , this time in honor of the time the second plane struck south. Ower of the World Trade Center the north tower fell shortly thereafter. The south tower followed. Nd it has been 14 years each year we remember. Now the next moment of silence [reading of the names] [moment of silence] [bell rings] [reading of the names] michael that was the second moment of silence this morning in honor of the time the second plane struck the south tower of the World Trade Center. Now the reading of the names continues. It will go on for several hours, until all of the names of those who perish to the World Trade Center have been remembered. In 21 minutes, a moment of silence at the New York Stock Exchange for michael 2983 women and children who were killed in those attacks. Good day to speak always to nicholas haman, the dean of industrial analysts for wall street and worldwide. On this a day, i think we can take a broader view. You have witnessed an of the great renaissance is in america that was not expected 14 years ago, and that was our manufacturing renaissance. It is definitely, i think, tom, one that has encountered some headwinds endeavor sectors of the Global Industrial economy, whether it is oil and gas, certainly in china, slowdown in emerging markets, weaker capital spending. That is a pretty fair assessment. That said, there are definitely many new frontiers to be developed, and one of those is certainly nondeveloped. Ountries they love base infrastructure to join the 21st century. Tom within that, the industrial stuff that we may, there has to be the question, is there any more to cut . Ge they move their headquarters. Is that an act of controlled analysis or budget desperation . Nick i think when you look today, the largest employer in tens and tens of thousands of people in the state, whereas ge, azimuth to sharply curtailed their Financial Services business and i could that by the end of next year, the number of people they will have in the state is maybe 1000 or 2000. So this is more convenience than anything else. Heymann with us on bloomberg surveillance, brought to you by invesco. Invesco. Com alternatives. Onhael mckee and tom keene september 11. Michael nick, you mentioned that ges strategy has become base infrastructure. What does that mean, and is that going to be a Winning Strategy for jeff the melt . For jeff immelt . The stock price has gone up and down. Nick this committee has gone through a lot of pain. It spent four years rebuilding stability. It has retooled its portfolio. We are in the final stages of closing out a lot of those changes. Completed,sed to be as well as exchanging their synchrony financial. Lightust got the green for an Energy Company with some. Odifications theyre looking to exit their appliance business and sell that, too. Once all them, youre set to go with a company that will have the preeminent position and power. Electricity is the most important factor to modernize commerce. It has the strongest ability to help attract foreign direct investment. That is a cornerstone of ge strategy. But they very strong and water, very strong in transportation, both in the air in rail, on the ground. Another keyin element, energy, which is oil and gas are now that is out of favor, but theyre working to change the costs. But a lot of these countries can have a source of cash flow, and 70 of our future fossil energy needs oil to come from offshore at the end of this decade, a lot of that from a developed countries. Michael ge closing yesterday 1240 oh . 68. How far can they go . 24. 68. How far can they go . Naked there is a lot of conditionality associated with closing. there is a lot of conditionality associated with closing. I call it threading the needles. When, insteadar of looking at all the conditional aspects of the portfolio changes, you began to look at the companys industrial business and how it can grow, midsingledigit organic growth for revenues. And couple that with strong margins, double digit growth in earnings. Michael nick heymann, thank you very much. He is with us on a tmobile phone line. Switch your business to the un carrier today. Tom good morning on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. Interactive brokers, winner of the 2015 award for the best ibkr. Cox trading, visit m 4x. Ande looking at eurodollar dollaryen. Some churning there. I focus on the brazilian real. And indonesia had a difficult night. Weaker this morning. Brazilian real with a tumult to us week as brazil is challenged. Tom . Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. We look at top headlines with david gura. Gee coat the Iran Nuclear Deal will be formally adopted next month now that it survived a congressional challenge. Some democrats handed president obama a major victory yesterday, as a republican resolution felt two votes short of what was needed. Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell says they might try it again. Will visitnell we the issue next week and see if maybe any folks want to change their minds and give us a chance to remove the procedural roadblock and give the president what he has been asking for. Plan will be adopted on october 19 that is when iran must start taking steps to comply. Opponents say they will keep fighting for her joe biden is making it clear that his decision about running for president is more emotional than political. He was on Stephen Colberts last night, and he says hes not yet ready to commit to a white house run. Joe biden i do not think any man or woman should run for president unless, number one, they know exactly why they would want to be president. Two, they can look the folks out there and say, i promise you, you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy, and my passion to do this. His familybiden and are still really from the death of his son in late may. Those are great top headlines. Julie hyman is here. Julie another one of the top headlines is Goldman Sachs call interesting. Y goldman says oil could go as low as 20 a barrel. This is not the base case. It is just a possibility. Goldman said the surplus is even ,orse than the analysts thought and if we do not see, particularly the u. S. Shale producers cut back production quickly enough, you could see 20 a barrel oil. That is from the scenario in which it could happen. We have been hearing Production Cut forecasts. We heard it from the u. S. The other day and now from the International Energy agency. But theout there, overall forecast is 45 a barrel. In may, that was 57 a barrel, so going down substantially. Goldman is also downgrading the midstream sector, the distributors, the transporters of oil and associated products. Be attractive. L we will be watching this stocks today. David absolutely julie coming up on monday, we will have a guest joining us, citigroups chief economist. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio worldwide. People listening on Bloomberg Radio plus. And in boston, new york, san francisco. Looking was just we have a camera focused on downtown. You can see the new World Trade Center gleaming in the sun. It is impressive. Tom it works. Great skill in architecture it is simple. The whole space its a thumb up, from the black marble, names, to the tower. I have not been to the Observation Deck yet. I have. Tom with Great Respect to you. We have a guest with us who is arguably analyst of the year. You wrote a note with citigroup eight months ago, bravely saying General Motors was doing something different. You were a lone wolf. Everybody has caught up to you. What is this with gm and your enthusiasm there . I think gm has had the right track strategy. We have been bullish on pick up trucks over the years, as well as the overall auto cycle in the u. S. 17 million was auto self through 2018. Role inwrite about gms technology. There was a tech conference earlier in the week. The profitability in april, gm disclosed that for the first time, they expect the onstar ford jeep platform to have incremental profit by 2018, not a small amount. Tom that is not small. Meaningful, within your conference, what is the significance of the apple iphone or any other toy question mark with the apple announcement, is the apple iphone, gm, ford, and the auto manufacturers, are they friends or enemies . Itay gm is rolling out a payment system. The value in the connected car comes from the data. Almost like apps that we buy on our phone. Automated driving features. A way to sell data to consumers. The ultimate mobile experience in the car. Tom you do terrific work about the behavior of automobiles. We have a moment of silence on. He way for september 11 lets just say, do they want to drive . That is the essence of the worry about millennials. Do they want to drive . 34y we think that 18 to year olds do when the economy is strong. Older than that, they are more reluctant to add car number two. Within the next 10 years, we think about new mobility. Tom does it threatened 17 Million Units . Itay no. Through 2018 would be a normal recovery in terms of the percent of drivers by new vehicles. Our view has always known as bullish. Actually, we have argued is a very ordinary form of recovery through 20 18 p. M. In michael we have seen talk about millennials not wanting to buy cars, but in part that is because they are all moving into the cities were they walk or take mass transit and what about the rest of the country, getting away from new york and chicago, cities with heavy mass transit are people buying cars . 2, 3 cars ining the driveway now . Itay yeah, we are. It has improved. In our survey of 18 to 34yearolds, they tell us in a couple years, we will have more cars per household when the economy is good. It is weaker for those older than 45. It is a pressure point. Tom what about black suburbans . Michael in new york, we have black suburbans or town cars. Tom tell us about your spreadsheets. Itay we did a report on other cells markets and what they will look like in 2030. We bullish on automated driving. A think that by 2030, we did simulation using our survey, and we could see an auto sales range up to 15. 7 million. We see some potential pressure points longerterm for the drive was networks. Our bias has been towards the high end. Is becoming connected and more profitable. You see lower unit volume, potential in the next 15 or so years, the profit per car will go up. The car is becoming more affordable its a we could see as many as 8 Million Units over the very longterm of auto sales. Point, theortant affordability of transportation. Also, gas mileage. One of the guys dragging me around said the gm suburban that i drive in, it is a gas guzzling truck i assumed that, but it is amazing to see that they are not. Michael as gas prices go up and down, it affects what kind of cars we buy. Itay as gas prices go down, there is more demand for large suvs and smaller suvs. Those who like the large suvs tend to like them no matter what. But Lower Oil Prices help. Tom itay joining us from citigroup, and he is done terrific group with automobiles between will continue with him in a moment. Futures, negative eight. Dow, 64. It. Know what to overplay a fairly quiet screen, particularly given what we saw in august. Michael 2206 people were killed in new york city on 9 11 in 2001. The New York Stock Exchange closed in the wake of the attacks until said to her 17. It was the longest shutdown since 1933. The Stock Exchange every year now marks of the occasion with a moment of silence on the floor. Far fewer people working on the floor than there were in 2001. But before the open, they mark the occasion. We are going to mark that occasion with them with this moment of silence michael trading about to get underway on the New York Stock Exchange floor after a moment of silence to mark the memorial of 9 11. On the first day of trading after 9 11, the market fell 684 points, or 7. 1 decline them a which puts in perspective the volatility we have seen recently, where 2 seems like an awful lot. Market was, the closed for four days and then reopened on the 17th. The Dow Jones Industrials were 8921 two today, they open at 16,330. So a lot has changed. Tom what i remember is they came back. What i remember more than anything is the worry about the future of new york and hand wringing about the moment the markets indicated the view forward. Theael i know the story at time about how resilient the markets were. A lot of people were predicting major problems for the u. S. Economy in the wake of the 9 11 attack, and it did not happen. The economy recovered reasonably quickly from what happened. Tom good morning. Michael mckee and tom keene on this september 11, the 14th anniversary of remembrance. We have surrounded ourselves with smart and good guest on economics. Tracy will join us in a bit from Bloomberg Markets to look at some of the global bigger picture. Right now, were looking at the Auto Industry with itay. Leasing andrend in the United States. I read that it is back with a vengeance. Is that true . Is true. Auto financing is readily available. Technology could be driving extra demand for leasing. Tom people want the new new. Itay it is incredible, the transformation of safety. We talked about connectivity before. And fuel economy. Tom fuel economy. And technology, i look at the gizmos and all that, and you talk about miles per gallon. Itay absolutely. People are looking at old vehicle, and 11. 5 year old fleet. Cars becoming more fuel efficient, that is another reason to buy. The cars could Getting Better and better. Michael are we making too much of the idea of a selfdriving car . It is not coming soon, is it . Itay it will come in step spirit and automating car, a car that you can be handsoff, which is convenient, it is actually much safer. If we get to driverless mobility, perhaps beyond 2020, there is such economic benefits, productivity benefits. The technology is coming and we think there is a real trend, not just a fad. Michael the new fad seems to be future connectedness. We put everything together very quickly. Is apple and motorola going to make a lot of money off of people programming their cars . Say the carsjust are becoming more profitable devices. Barriers to entry are coming down. There are new profit opportunities. They talk about gm and other suppliers. Out there. Lot it will be interesting over the next several years. Us. Ael itay is with thanks for being with us here on bloomberg surveillance. The opening bellthe opening belo you by fti. Investing, find out how to evolve with your business with scis Global Platform at fdic. Com evolve. The s p 500 is opening up down today by six points, Dow Jones Industrials off at the open my. 25 . Nts, about the nasdaq 100 open down by 25 points,. 5 following the pattern around the world today where everybody but china has been lower. Tom its been a challenge to state police. I noticed russia with their central bank did not manipulate their Interest Rate. Michael the first time this year they have not lower the Interest Rate. Us onracy alloway with the Bloomberg Markets, working with joe weisenthal. She has one of the most painful jobs, 18,000 jobs. She has a work with me. In my fractured english. She has this lovely british accent. She says tom, you are absolutely american idiot. Tracy i will not dispute the fact that i do at you. Its almost the beginning of the autumn season. Volatility of august mean, does a single more volatility to come . This is bloomberg surveillance. Its tracy its an interesting question. Vixe seen the vexed shoot up. Tom its more than that. Tracy if you look at the , ittility of the vix surpassed the two thousand eight hike. That suggests to me that something within the volatility basis changed. Back to thatme go whole issue of the volatility cycle. The vix hasnt been around that long. What this volatility is saying about anything for the future. Tracy that the question that should be asked. The plethora of volatilitys trading strategies, you guys have been talking about for a while now. Exchange traded products, links to vix futures. Its arguable that cost the feedback loop within the vexed vix. When we see that volatility, maybe its worth while looking through it. There are so many products out there that are based office. Tracy may be right about a feedback loop. It doesnt necessarily mean anything fundamentally. Tom we dont know what the ramifications are if we get abrupt moves. One of the things i keep harping back to is a change in the bank of england. Its a very different economy than the United States. Governor carney has really been boxed into a corner of no inflation. Again, all you see on Bloomberg Markets is a redux of that next week. The thing im thinking about a lot is the lack of guidance from the fed. Market was really expecting the fed to guide it on this issue, and on the Interest Rate rise. Division now of amongst economists, traders, investors as to whether or not thats going to happen. The inflation outlook is totally unclear. If you look at where fed fund futures are pricing the Interest Rate hike at, they have a 28 chance of a rate hike next week. Meanwhile, about half of the economists polled by bloomberg are betting on a rate rise. Theres a huge discrepancy in the market right now, which really means i think we have to question whether or not the fed has been successful in guiding investors. Let me throw you a question that we raised earlier. The whole idea of will they or wont obey, he suggests, has become its own weight on the market. Its become as much of a problem as the will it hurt, will it not hurt question people were asking. Tracy that feeds into the argument that maybe the time is to hike so they can do one and done, show the market they can do it. Tom is it time for a bloomberg surveillance, connection. Ted from connecticut says she is canadian. Tracy im not canadian. I take that as a compliment. Strange background. Cap austrian, half american, grew up in tokyo and spent 10 years in the u. K. Hence the inscrutable accent. Tom we dont have to do a correction. Michael correct the correction. Tom we are good at that. Michael yours partly in the austrian school. [laughter] michael a little bit of both. Whats the most interesting story in the markets . Is it brazil or china . Tracy i cannot resist a good credit market story. Is verysay petrobras interesting, specifically petrobras bonds. Statecontrolled, scandal ridden brazilian Energy Company got downgraded off the back of the s p downgrade. Which means we have a new junk bonds came out there. And its petrobras taking over from sprint. About 56 billion of junk rated debt, outstanding. Sprint has Something Like 30 billion. Its a weird state of affairs because just two or three months ago, petrobras actually came to billionet and sold 2. 5 worth of bonds with a 100 year maturity. Michael you can wait out the scandal. Tracy they sold it at a lower yield than initially expected. Tom Tracy Alloway with us on this special day, with Bloomberg Markets. The dow 49. We tend to focus on the crashes and attacks, but in washington, d. C. , 125 people were killed. At the pentagon, when a plane crashed into that building. We are now going to join the people pulling the memorials for a moment of silence there. [bell ringing] mark joseph ellis. Silence atmoment of the pentagon for the 125 victims that died there on 9 11. Tom, it was truly an event that touched the whole nation. Tom it did. Their story. I was in boston. You had the immediacy of being at ground zero. In the distance, we observed new york and washington, and of course, the horror in pennsylvania. Me with then for second tower, which was our moment of silence at 9 03 a. M. Thats when it really hit home for me. Michael that moment of silent and shanksville coming up in a minute when we remember on this 9 11, 14 years later. Tom the market is a 51. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance, on this september 11. Another moment of silence for shanksville, pennsylvania. We have that for you in a few moments. It is bloomberg surveillance, on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. Oile could see a barrel of will go for just 20. The bank is lowered its forecast for crude once again. We see it in global abundance in growing opec production. Its trimming the 2016 estimate for west texas crude to 45 a barrel. Is down from him a projection from 57. Its also slashing its 2016 reproduction from 62 a barrel to 4950. The Iran Nuclear Deal will be formally adopted now that it survived the senate challenge. Senate democrats handed president obama major foreignpolicy victory as a republican resolution failed to vote short of the 60 needed to disapprove of the deal. In defeat, senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell says they might try again. Revisitconnell we will the issue next week and see if folks want to change their mind and give us a chance to remove the procedural roadblock. And give the president what he has been asking for. To keep iran from building atomic weapons will be adopted on october 19. That is what iran must start taking steps to comply. Opponents of the deal say they will continue to keep fighting. Joe biden is making it clear that his decision about running for president is more emotional than political. The Vice President appeared last night on Stephen Colberts latenight show. He says hes not ready to commit to a white house run. President i do think any man or woman should run for president whether number one, they know exactly why they want to be president , and number two, they can look at the folks out there and say i promise you, you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy, and my passion to do this. Vice President Biden says he and his family are still reeling from the seth the death of his son. He has run for president twice before. Those their top headlines. Julie hyman is with us now. Julie we have breaking news on jpmorgan. A Management Change is interesting. The companies had a predatory policies is leaving the bank to run a major wall street lobbying group. , hes goingry bears to join the clearinghouse association. That will be effective october 5, he will be the new president. Is being revealed in a statement today. The clearinghouse is best known for providing the legal underpinnings for Banking Industry challenges to key rules issued by the Federal Reserve and other regulators. Previously, he was a counselor bank of america, he also had previously served as an assistant secretary of the Treasury Department during the clinton administration. He is well known in democratic circles. Interesting to hear that he is leaving to join this lobbying group. Fromg up next, we get more bloomberg surveillance. Youre watching bloomberg on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and streaming on your tablet on bloomberg. Tom we say good morning to all of you on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. Michael mckee and tom keene on bloomberg surveillance, with much going on. Vexed 25. 36. The theres an Exchange Traded fund out there for everyone. Us, we make a on joke that im in a devereaux leveraged cash fund. Theres more than one etf that would give you that. Leveragehere a denver a double leverage . What have we learned about leverage in august, in the relatively new world of uts . Etfs . Eric since august 24, youve seen flows show what you would think. A lot of the hot money is scared. Studyinguttering flows, ive rarely seen it for this. All of the money is going into inverse products, to actually hedge their portfolio. Its also going into things like treasuries. Treasuries have taken a billion dollars, thats more up to this point to this year in mind at this point. In three weeks theyve taken more than all year. Vanguard is also on the leaderboard. Anytime you see vanguard and the leaderboard it means the hot money has cleared out, not just the Asset Allocation money. Retail money is still allocating. But smart, they buying low. The hot money is an inverse and treasuries. That areproducts really shoulders from the storm. In, in the spreads come terms of volatility . Or is everybody making a lot of money as the owners of uts get hammered etfs get hammered . eric on black money, there were issues. But spreads come in when there is more trading. Weve seen more trading in etfs , a represented more than 50 of all equity trading volume. More and more, people are trading etfs, especially in times of volatility. Spreads tighten in those times. There are a few issues. Tom come back when you have double leverage cash to me. Thismberg surveillance, morning, brought to you by marx pass, ranked among the top three offender in Forensic Accounting firms. Visit their website. Michael anybody who was in new york remembers the aftermath of 9 11. The collapsed towers, the deserted downtown. Windows ashton over, it was kind of a ghost town. Got down that far. It has come back tremendously. We were talking about that earlier. Atn cashin is principal real estate. Thank you for joining us on surveillance this morning to talk about the rejuvenation of the area. Was 9 11 a catalyst, or was this area coming back anyways . Think its a two prong answer. On the one hand, downtown was right for redevelopment. Aftermath and the tragedy of september 11, and the government subsidies that push people down or lured people down there to live after september 11 started to revitalize the neighborhoods from a residential standpoint. What weve seen really in the last three years is a tremendous push downtown. Its a very interesting case study. A lot of what is happening down could really tide towards what happened after september 11. We remember the World Trade Center, and the two towers, its become very interest institutionally oriented. What happened downtown is very different. Especially with conde nast taking up over one million square feet in the Freedom Tower. It change the dynamic of who is down there from Financial Firms to what we all consider may be more interesting, publishing. Tom i think of the pine street school, and others down there as well. The public schools. Where will it be in five years, john . Were heavily invested in battery park city. We have two buildings down there. Now 100 ark city is built out. Seeink we will continue to residential change going on there. I think we will see more conversion from residential to luxury properties. Rom rental to the luxury you mentioned the schools. The schools downtown, especially in that area, are very strong. They are sought after. But by people and tribeca and battery park city. I think we will see more conversion there. Obviously theres been a retail explosion downtown with just about every major luxury retailer that one can name moving into either Brookfield Place or rust field center. Where before you had a pizza place and electronic stores, you different stores, tom ford, cvs and apple. Its a total and complete shift. Tom i agree with that. But i miss the little pizza store downtown. [laughter] michael this is new york. You can find another one. The other important thing is the opening of the transportation hub. John it significant. That area is well served, but a transportation hub will really bring it all together. And aroundliving in the World Trade Center or in battery park city, thats going to be your main transportation hub. People are gravitating towards it, especially battery park city. It has these now iconic views. You can see the Freedom Tower, you are on the water. Its an easier place to live, a little quieter. Across the street is tribeca and the financial district. As you mentioned, access to all major transportation. Weve seen a real influx of people. A lot of families from tribeca into battery park city. Tom you mentioned conde nast. Fromtashjian with us centurion as we look at the spirit of the future of lower manhattan. You mentioned conde nast. How Much Empty Office Space is there within the new construction . John within one World Trade Center, that leasing is down a little slower than they would have liked. Its about two thirds least. If you look at whats happening in brookfield across the street in battery park city, they were over 40 vacant a couple of years ago. Now they are under 5 vacant. Michael thats the old winter garden. John and the related World Trade Center area. Brookfield got ahead of westfield on the other side. With respect to its retail. I think the retail really drives office decisionmaking. Office leasing. People want and experience. The experience that brookfield is created, i think the experience that west will roll create will continue to bring tenants downtown. Think about whats happening. You have 2500 new residential units coming online. 13 new hotels. Its the potential for the future for commercial real estate. Or are you pretty much built out for now . John in that area we will see a lot of conversion of older buildings to newer uses. Ofhink thats the next phase any infill location. Michael John Tashjian of centurion real estate. Thank you for joining us. It is ay, transformation story. Its a complete the different area down there. As he pointed out, its gone from being a place of Financial Transactions during the day and at 4 30, it was completely empty , to a place were people live now. Point out it shifted in the last three years from success to huge success. Theres Forward Momentum to say the least. We need to do a day to check with the doubt 40 down 16,281, the vix 25. 28. Im washing gold. Have and remarkable statistic. Down 10. Im going to call 1085 support on gold. That bears careful washing over the weekend. Watching over the weekend. Our wonderful out new announcement of new programming with ryan curtis in hong kong and Doug Christer in new york. Word in asia, look for that sunday evenings as they begin to roll out global bloomberg. Michael you will be on tom top of everything that happens. Its wonderful, were just announcing in now. Ago, a flightars struck the south tower of the World Trade Center between floor 77 and 85. I didnt realize this. Only 14 people who were above floor 77 managed to escape. 9 59, theof course, south tower collapsed. That would mark the end of the attacks on what happened downtown new york. Were going to mark that our now with another moment of silence, time to the fall of the south tower on west street in manhattan. 14 years ago. [bell ringing] gary robert hedge. Michael a moment of silence marking the collapse of the south tower of the World Trade Center. That as want to forget people were trying to flee those towers, several hundred people were running into them, including 343 members of the Fire Department and 71 Law Enforcement officers who went into the burning building to try and save people, never came out. They gave their lives for their fellow man. Folks might point out,