Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Lunch Money 20140421

Gq moment. Vice President Joe Biden in the ukraine today as last weeks ceasefire gave way to violence on Easter Sunday. Three people died at a ukraine, in eastern both sides blaming each other for what happened. Questions about who is responsible for the incident. At the same time, you have prorussian activists, military men and women still arming, occupying eastern ukrainian cities in terms of government facilities. In the meantime, members of congress are calling on the administration to turn up the economic heat on russia. Our Foreign Policy is always a day late and a dollar short. Unless they immediately begin moving the 40,000 troops on the border, which are intimidating the people of ukraine, i really do believe we should be sanctioning some of the companies in the energy sector, gazprom and others. We should hit some of the large banks there. Certainly we should be from our security relationships with the ukraine. It is not just republicans, democrats also want the u. S. To step up sanctions on russian interests, and this is key, offer support to ukraine. The time is not to ratchet up sanctions, whether it is on russian petro companies, or banks. I also agree that the europeans need to look at this from their security perspective as well. If russia gets away with this, there is the potential that a nato ally is next. There will be economic pain for europe, but it is time for them to lead as well. Russias response to the threat of additional sanctions . You cannot work with russia and try to achieve anything through the language of sanctions. Third, the sanctions that have been introduced, certainly, significant gesture, reminder of the cold war mentality, but it is russia. It is a very solidstate, welltodo, well developing country. We can withstand pressures. Mr. Ambassador saying no sanctions. Others say they are not enough. Does the u. S. Need to get more forceful here . This is like sending food to somebody who has lost someone, to their funeral. This country has Russian Troops about to roll in. From a republican perspective, they are finally trying to wake up. Either you will deploy military assets or lethal weaponry, something to help Ukrainian Government establish itself as legitimate. Why should we get involved when the American People do not want to get involved . If you look back over the past 100 years when we do not get involved, instability creates more problems. You can wait for latvia next. Maybe the next one is on the border of poland. So there is a domino theory of sorts. Respond to what is a large part of what america feels. One thing would be to send more military aid to the ukraine. I do not think anyone in the American Public or congress has the stomach for a military engagement. Maybe im wrong about that. We want, on the one hand, to have a stable world, to maintain our hegemony and enforce decent behavior, and then we get to these junctures where it is difficult to do it. If you do not do it and they take georgia in 2008, ukrainian 2014, sending weapons to the borders of the baltics, you better begin to worry. Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov telling ministers honeywell chairman ceo david cody will tell us his fiveyear plan for doubledigit Earnings Growth. And a producer who has run some of hollywoods biggest studios will speak out about his latest project. And as we go to break, take a look at this. This is during the celebration of the Easter Sunday mass. More than 150,000 people jammed st. Peters square as he made his way through the crowd. This is lunch money on Bloomberg Television. You can also watch us streaming on your tablet, phone, and on bloomberg. Com. We are also on apple tv and amazon fire tv. Honeywell beat earnings. Ceo david cody explain why to trish regan. It seemed like a long time ago, but we started last month a new fiveyear plan where we said we would have doubledigit earnings increases. It is not the easiest environment to do that in, but we have done a lot of seed planting. You have heard me use that phrase a lot. Whether it is technology, geography, processes, we tried to not just make this quarter but make sure we are doing the seed planting for the future. We are starting to reap the benefits for that. Lets talk about that fiveyear plan. You had a plan originally, delivered on it, and now you have a new fiveyear plan. Talking about putting 33 billion to work over the next five years. Where is that money going to go . We are a good cash generator, which is a nice position to be in. That was not always the case. First priority is having highquality earnings. Free cash flow conversion is 125 , so pretty darn good. That means over the next five years we have about 35 billion that we have to find something to do with. Other then let it build on the balance sheet. We talked about it as a 50 50 split. 50 will go to increasing dividends. We have said we would increase the dividend payout ratio. Grow dividends faster than earnings. Then we would do repurchases. A big chunk of it, but also to the right time hits, to expand it. The other 50 is investment in the businesses, including m a. We have developed a very good reputation over the last 10 years of being good at that positions. Very different from where we started. 10 years ago, the advice we got from investors was give us the money, we do not trust you with it. What we have done with about 90 acquisitions, we have now been asked to do more. What have you done for me lately . Trish spoke to the coceos of warby parker about what is driving their growth. People say that classes have been having a moment, but they have been for about 800 years. It has always been a fashion accessory but it is form and function. People come to our site because they enjoy shopping, the discovery aspect. That is also why they love going into our stores. We opened up a store on 82nd and lexington in this former pharmacy space, 21 foot cathedral ceilings, a mezzanine. It is just a fun experience. How would you describe the brand, how fun has the definition been to your success . We think we are creating a lifestyle brand, one that stand for beautiful design, sophistication, purpose, creativity, and fun. We think eyeglasses are fun, andhink our brand is fun, people should own multiple pairs. How many do you own . Dozens lying around our apartment. People should think of glasses the way they think of shoes and handbags. Wear different pairs for different occasions, different outfits. 95, werice point at think that is affordable for most consumers. Staying with our growth theme, a chemical Product Company backed by bill ackman. The platform ceo discussed the company with mark crumpton. There are more than 1500 products around the world. As a result, we have a very niche position. What exactly does the product do, what are you attempting to do . We are attempting to make products grow better. The longterm secular trends are you have a growing population and less arable land, so you need to make the crops yielding per acre more than they currently do. These products enable those crops to grow better than they otherwise would. Agro solutions has a global presence. Talk about the regions you will concentrate your Growth Strategy and the Part Development around the world. We participate in more than 100 countries around the world. Brazil is an important market, eastern europe, the brics, the u. S. , canada, africa, europe. There is a very broad interaction around the world with these products. Agro solutions has been aggressive about getting products to market. More than 100 new offerings a year. Is your acquisition going to accelerate this or slow it down in the pipeline . We hope to accelerate that. We have a Specialized Business model that we go after. This acquisition is that example. We call it light touch. Our business practice involves formulation of chemistry and the people side of the business, which means r d, product development, project registrations. We think we will accelerate those registrations, which we have had more than 100 in recent years, as we add more to the portfolio. Here is a ceo whose Company Might be illegal tomorrow. We are talking about the online streaming company aereo. More on the Supreme Court hearing, coming up in media. And advice on what makes a good investor. He knows, he manages billions. Before we go to break, lets go to cairo. The International Festival for drums has begun. Officials say that it is a sign that the country is now safe to visit. This is lunch money on Bloomberg Television. We are also streaming on virtually every device. Amazon fire tv is one of many. Today in media, the big screen and mobile screen, first up, disney tells the tale of sleeping beauty. It was created by the man who created alice in wonderland. You might think that they would enlist a veteran director for this bigbudget film, but not this time. I have back a lot of firsttime directors who i think are ready and have a particular expertise. With him it was visual. We felt that angie was such a force on her own, the best way to support her was to have a great visual background. Speaking of angelina jolie, this is somebody, who if she was not onboard with the film, you would not have made it. What does she think of the final product . She absolutely loves the film. She is a tough critic, both on herself and on the film. We have worked hard. She absolutely loves the film and will be out promoting it. When you have big budgets this is an example of one the expectations are so high. How much do you have to think about that . What people are saying about what the box office will be the first weekend . How do you deal with that . I try not to focus on that. My job is to get people together and tell the story the best i can. I have some input in the marketing and really put the film, but if i had to go to sleep every night worrying about returns, i would be sleepless. Onto the small screen, abc facing off against aereo. Supreme Court Justices will start hearing arguments tomorrow. It has been a battle of inches on whether the Supreme Court feels they are a private or public company. By now, you may have heard about aereo. It allows you to watch broadcast tv over the internet, but is it legal . In 13 cities so far, aereo has created antenna farms. Warehouses full of antennas. These work like the rabbit ears you would attach to your television at home. They receive broadcast signals from Networks Like abc, cbs, and fox. Aereo takes that signal and resends it to subscribers via the internet. Then you can watch live tv on your computer, tablet, or smartphone. Aereo will even allow you to record to the cloud. The Service Costs 9 to 12 a month, but here is where it gets sticky. Preaereo, you could put an antennae to your tv and get the signal for free, you could pay a Cable Company for a box, or a Satellite Company for a dish. While you are paying cable and satellite companies, they are the rebroadcasters. But do you know how much aereo pays broadcast networks . None. Aereo claims they are airing everything that people can get with their own antenna. Broadcasters say that aereo is no different than a Cable Company. In march 2012, they sued aereo for violating copyright law. The lawsuit hangs on one thing, whether or not aereos retransmission is considered a public performance. If it is, aereo is infringing, because they have not paid for the programming. But if the Court Decides that the service is just a lot of private performances, one for each subscriber, it would not be an infringement, and aereo would not need to pay the broadcasters. So far, the lower and Appellate Courts have sided with aereo. Now it is up to the Supreme Court to decide. Arguments will begin april and there will be a ruling by july. So who will win the battle . Betty liu asked the founder and ceo of omnivision entertainment. We all started recording our own shows a long time ago. I just keep thinking not about media experts and pundits, but real people who are getting more and more frustrated with the amount of money that you spend to get cable television, and can get your own shows when you want, how they want, at pennies on those dollars. It is frustrating. If you were back at mtv or vh1, one of the big but, what would you be thinking now . I would be focused on the same things that i was focused on at mtv and vh1, creating the best content, and then figuring out the best way to get that into the hands of people who want it when they wanted, not when we want you to see it. I ran programming for years, filling up the schedule and 8 00, 10 00, prime time, when he pushed the shows to you, we wanted you to see. That world is ending so quickly. The concept of prime time is now your own and not the networks. The network say, if we do not get those retransmission fees anymore, we will not provide you such great content. What scares them is the technology. Somebody figured out how to create something the size of a dime that can pull their world into your hands on any device. That is terrifying. I am not a legal expert. I cannot predict how the Supreme Court will go, but i can predict the broadcast networks will do everything they can to either crush this company or buy it. What do you think is more likely . If im laying down money, aereo will be acquired. Tomorrow, we will hear from the defendant and the plaintiffs in this case as they make their statements outside the Supreme Court. One year after a bomb killed three, boston marathoners take to the street for the beloved event. We will hear what authorities are doing to came keep this event and others like it safe. This is lunch money on Bloomberg Television. We are fully digital, online, apple tv, and amazon, we are there. It is time for the moving pictures where the video is the story. Antigovernment protesters and government soldiers battled on the streets of caracas, venezuela. Clashes have killed more than 40 people since february. The latest round of violence comes as the venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro marks one year in office replacing hugo chavez. Continued Recovery Efforts from the ferry disaster in south korea. 64 confirmed dead, more than 200 still missing. The residents of south korea says the actions of the boats captain was like murder. Some crew members have been arrested for violating maritime law and abandoning the ships passengers. A kenyan woman wins the Womens Division of the boston marathon. 36,000 runners took off this morning one year after a bomb exploded at the finish line. Two bombs last year. Richard falkenrath is a former National Security adviser and former deputy security for counterterrorism. He joins us to talk about the current threat level and what can be done to prevent other attacks like it. It is a combination of locally generated threats, many of which are merge without any formal international linkages. We do not have the big machine as we had prior to 9 11 operating out of afghanistan, tenticles towards the west, trying to attack us with long planned horizons. As a result, security has changed dramatically. It is much more difficult these days to get the original lead on a thread that is homegrown. If you have two guys operating on their own and decide to build a bomb, it is a more difficult task to get them because their conspiracy is so much smaller. Much of what we learn comes from the external linkages. I saw secretary chertoff in my last visit to washington. When we met, i asked, what is number one on your wish list to budget, to spend money on within the nations security. He and i have been preoccupied with electronic surveillance. Of one form or another. It is a hugely convoluted area and became even more controversial with edward snowden. What we both learned in our experiences is that these techniques of penetrating the private communications of conspiracies are really vital for our ability to learn about them. It turns out in the boston case, that was not the missing ingredient. But it has to be the thing that we talk about most. Coming up, why cliff asness does not lose sleep over his investment decisions. We will speak with the fabled quant investor. This is lunch money on Bloomberg Television. We are also streaming online, on your phone, apple tv, and amazon fire tv. It is the world according to cliff asness, the founder and chief Investment Officer of aqr capital management, which manages 100 billion. Thats billion with a b. So what concerns him most about the markets . I will not say it keeps me up at night, but i am concerned about the longterm outlook for markets. I dont mean the one week or month, year, but the next 5, 20 years. When i say we, the royal we. What investors, Pension Funds of all types are going to make longterm on stocks and bonds, going forward. We are of the view, and we have some graphs, that it will be harder for everybody, not necessarily us, not any one of your guests in particular, but for everyone to make a lot of money going forward. He has a few concerns. He looks at all of them when considering where to put his clients money. Everything affects how you invest. The way i invest, aqr invests, we are quantitative. Forq in aqr stands quant. I can pretend i am the a, but that is not true. We try very hard, succeed more than we do not, but we try not to make what happened in ukraine, to have offsetting positions. To me, when something happens in the ukraine, it will affect my portfolio, but this is a weird concept. I should not know how. Lets say you are market neutral. You are long a bunch of things in short a bunch of things. You think that these things are better. If the world is good, you are going to make money on the lawns. If something happens, it is going to scramble the whole thing. I still hope to make money. But i was not betting on that thing, was not calling the ukraine. So what makes a great invester . A great investor has a process that is ultimately rooted on the quantitative side, or the academic side, two of the biggest things that have worked over the longterm are Value Investing and, oddly enough, something that has worked longterm, momentum investing. Combining those works a ton better than either one separately. Asness does not think we are in a tech bubble. He thinks that happened a decade ago. The whole market is not nearly as expensive. The word bubble and this will come up with a guest is a contentious word. Gene fama does not like it, bob shiller does. I am in the middle. So where do you think we are . There is a difference between an expensive market and a bubble. When you Say Something will return less than it used to because it is expensive, that does not mean it will crash. We are poised for lower returns over the next 1020 years. So what is the best way to grade a money manager . No standalone measure is a strong predictor of the future. One of the few things that we found over time is three to five year performance tends to be a little indicative of the future, but with the wrong side. If you have been good. If im looking to invest in a fund or launch a fund, i want to start today, how do i market myself is not to say, but what i did the last three years . People should certainly look at that, but they should look at it in context. If someone shows you a track record, what you bet your money, did you do what you say you would do . That is relevant. There is no easy answer to be honest. Three years to five years is a tiny drop in time. Warren buffett, i saw an article that he has had a bad five years relative to the market. I think he is one of the exception to my role that it is pretty hard to win. I did not change my view because he has had a bad five years. A manager with a below that average three to five years would be my preferred strategy. Hold on, one more time . You would choose someone that has an eh 3 to 5 years based on a stellar person . All else equal, yes, i would prefer someone who has a rougher time. So what is the correlation between past performance . It is still pretty low. When people buy what is working, i called in the mildly backwards. They are not tremendously backwards, otherwise we would have great predictors the other way. You can watch the full interview with cliff asness on bloomberg. Com tv, or on one of our awardwinning tablet apps. Coming up in fashion, we speak with the publisher of gq magazine on the business of dressing well. In fashion, did you by any chance see Market Makers last week . We are all about men being the new women. Welcome back. Erik schatzker is off this week, so i scoured the building looking for in the most stylish guy at bloomberg World Headquarters and there was no question, the one and only adam johnson. Here with me right now. I have never been called stylish, but i will take it. Against matt miller, you win. Whoa. I dont know how they did that. That is amazing. We talked about the rise of mens fashion, from tailored suits, to why lebron james is even cooler off the courts. You are seeing men buy more in quantity than women do. Men find something they like and fits, and they will buy the rest of their lives. You have this repeat customer in a man that you dont with a woman. Lets say they are less fickle as consumers. And men are becoming more adventurous. They are branching out and spending real money on tshirts and things that youre two for men would not put money down on. As the gq publisher mentioned, this is a global ecommerce site, mr. Porter. As for mens fashion, you can thank shows like mad men. That was a game changer in terms of mens partnering up up their act, wearing suits that were cut better, wearing a pocket square, parting their hair a certain way. He for that, style for men was a bit scruffy air, and it was cool to be casual. In recent years, we have seen guys are buttoning up a bit more. That is a good thing for men and women. That explains why you see a lot of those slim, tailored shirt suits around the office. I myself decided i needed to educate myself a little bit. It is a sports bar in a not so secret hedge fund hangout. I am here to see ryan. The secret is below ground. They have this custom suit shop where the men of manhattan by their clothes. Celebrities from Albert Brooks to dj dip low have all gone below. He even has his name in there. It is all about exclusivity, creating something that fits your personality. Skull and cross bones. You can do a special lining, certain buttons. Everything to make a unique suit. It is not the most expensive game in town, but the whole underground thing makes you feel like an insider. You get exactly what you are one. We had a lot of guys interested in the american psycho movie. The suit will be done in about six weeks, but the good news is you can go back upstairs to the bar and party while you wait. Sports bar meets highfashion. Men do not look at models and say i want to be that guy. Men look at lebron and say, i want to be that guy. Whether it is artist or actors or musicians. When the term metrosexual was introduced, it was almost a nasty term, a put down for guys that like to dress up. Now you have these athletes doing it. I was telling chris earlier, i will go to a fashion show and it is not surprising to see somebody like Amare Stoudemire or these other athletes. Sitting front row. Designers love athletes because they bring this masculine tone to the fashion. They embrace it in a way that is authentic. That will make guys by. What we do is deliver a service. What the guy ultimately needs, the american guy, show me how to do it. Make me confident, they be comfortable. The anecdote i give people, if two women show up at a Party Wearing the same thing, their night is ruined. If two guys show up wearing the same thing, they highfive. For the record, who is the best dressed guy out there . I would say pharrell. Who made the hat . Arbys bought the hat. Pharrell is the king. He has better personal style and is such a terrific guy. Who does not want to be pharrell . He has a lot of fun with fashion. He wore shorts to the oscars. In the world of athletes, you cannot forget about tom brady. Giseles husband. Even though when there is a time he was wearing uggs . He is the face of uggs. But does that make you a style icon . Just because they ask him to wear the fuzzy boots, does that make him a style icon . He has the best accessory on the planet. He has giselle. And he pulls it off with confidence. That is what gives him the credibility. I also think dwayne wade. Great style. Basketball players are killing it right now. Carmelo, stoudemire. The next one is nfl. We have the style moors where we style wars. Victor cruz and a bunch of players duking it out for best dressed nfl player. The nfl is saying, we care about clothes, too. You can watch more of our fashion showcase and find out why gq has a surprisingly large female audience. Bloomberg. Com tv, or any one of our mobile apps. Apple tv, amazon fire tv just go online, you will find bloomberg. I promise. We are everywhere. Todays mystery meat. A giant Easter Basket at the International Space station. Two tons of supplies being delivered to the members of that satellite station on sunday. Spacex 3 is underway. An american aircraft from u. S. Soil making a delivery of science and technology to the International Space station. It is 56 past the hour which means Bloomberg Television is on the markets. I am matt miller. But get you caught up on the indexes. Stocks rising for the fifth longest day, the winning streak for the s p since october. Not a huge gain, just. 2 . We want to look at the bond market. Crude over the last year to date up 6 . Followingto a low, strong orders. Worst drop in over a decade, but so far this year, it is up. Against buying gold going forward. You have an income stream you can value. If you feel you are good at guessing what others will buy, go ahead. If not, dont. Better inflation hedges. Adam johnson looks at one sector investors are already staying away from. Healtcare, the best performing sector of the s p 500 last year. This year it is struggling. In the past month it has been the single worst performer in the s p 500 of all 10 industries coming down 4. 5 . It is so bad, the percentage of stocks outperforming within the sector is less than 20 . That is what that line is. Completely oversold. Everyone has been selling from last year. As that happens, you have the percentage of stocks outperforming dropping below 20 . That has only happened two times in the past years. Each time we got a little bounce. Interesting. Here is what you want to focus on with regards to health care. The vitals look good. Earnings growth of nearly 16 , nearly double the s p 500. Yes, people are selling the winners of last year, but guess what, there is still good reason to be in the stock this year. We looked at the 53 stocks in index, health care and try to figure out where you have Earnings Growth this year at least forecast of at least 10 , and where there is not a single sell rating. There are 10. Here they are. I will post all of these on ajinsight. Since i went so quickly. Maybe it is time to come in and do some value buying. For on the markets, im matt miller. Past us at 26 and 56 every hour