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This monday morning. Anna it has just gone 6 00 here, lets talk about the oil price. It seems appropriate. We have this big interview, before the weekend. Stories coming with the saudi royal family. They are putting their money where their mouth is. Manus two weeks ago, we talked with the single biggest squeeze that went on, on record. Record short positions. They are back. The Money Managers are back. That is what the risk is telling us. Speculators have boosted their bearish bets up by 17 in the last week. That is behind part of that precipitous drop we saw on the back of that interview. They were there for five hours talking about everything under the sun. Anna checking where the oil prices now, continuing to retreat. 38. 28, wti at 36. 25. Both of them moving further from the 40 mark. Manus the brent volume is barely above average, but the wti volume is 25 above average. You have russia and iran as well. Anna it is not enough for the irradiance just turn up for the iranians just to turn up if they will not participate in any kind of freeze. Lets look at the assets. Gold, it has had a good quarter. Hedge funders increasingly bullish around gold. The aussie dollar in there as against the u. S. Dollar. Closed. Commodities are manus honda is to recall about products after six reports of fires. More than 253 vehicles in japan will be recalled. Lets get more detail on that. We will bring that to you. Anna lets get the bloomberg first word news. Here is cool if the here is come with the here is kumutha. Kumutha this is according to european officials monitoring the slow progress of Prime Minister alex tsiprass negotiation with creditors. They say that greece still has not cut a deal on pension, tax benefits, or the fiscal gap. They say the Privatization Fund continues to slow the talks. \ the imf managing director Christine Lagarde has issued an unusually strong statement. It follows the leaking of a report that imf officials allegedly discussed the possibility of putting pressure on germany to give greece debt relief. A leaked document from a panama law firm shows that the company has used banks to hide their finances. That is according to a report from International Consortium of investigative journalists. It includes people allegedly tied to russian president vladimir putin. Japaneseforecasts officials have cut their forecast for the next five years. The bank of japan is struggling to persuade businesses as the state priced gains will take hold. Companies project 1. 2 of inflation at this time in five years, down from 1. 4 estimated in december. Brussels airport is accelerating activity today after restarting services yesterday. Thousands of flights resumed to new york, africa, and six major u. S. Cities after the deadly terror attack. Security at a makeshift checkin area will restrict outbound flights to 800 passengers per hour, less than 20 of its usual capacity. David cameron has denied that the u. K. Referendum is spreading his government. It comes after John Whittington john wittingale day,l news, 24 hours a powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on bloombergs top go. Manus lets get across the haidi lun, standing by. A few closed markets in the asian session, but take us through what is trading. You have a sprinkle of green there. Eidi it is a holiday, which is why we see a number of markets closed for the session today. Weewhere around the region, had a horrible start to the Second Quarter on friday. Fridays session was the worst we have seen, but it has been a very good start to the trading weeks in the monday session. The exception being that weakness coming through from japan. The nikkei 225 keeping that up, down by 0. 4 . As the yen continues to strengthen, dollaryen sitting at that two week high or two week low. Elsewhere around the region, despite the declines in oil, we are seeing a number of this energy heavy markets doing well. Sydney is up by 0. 3 off its session highs. Export up 0. 5 . I want to see the quick movers, because we were talking about some of these stocks in the way they are moving today. Rs forht, we had the ad resorts. Health care stocks are leading the charge when it comes to the sydney session. Withmores hugely popular chinese consumers, australian pharma as well. That breaking news from china honda, not much has changed for that stock. Anna haidi lun in hong kong. Oil prices have fallen again on growing doubts that Major Oil Producers will agree on an output freeze. Manus this comes as saudi arabia says it will only count it if others follow suit. We could call this managing expectations but there are others who just consider it a waste of time. Is it . I guess we will have to wait and see what happens in that meeting. There does seem to be a bit more of managing expectations. Haveis have only always said they will only freeze output if everyone else does, the venezuelans, the qata ris and others have said they are on board. That includes the iranians. But some investors have been shaken from their complacency, have said theudis iranians are maintaining google keep pumping to regain the market share that they are going to continue pumping to regain their market she that they lost under sanctions. The oil minister signaled that saudi would increase output if others did likewise. That would put more oil onto the market and would presumably put more pressure on prices, which is why we are seeing prices today decline on the back of this as well. Investorseems that are increasingly thinking it is not enough for the iranians to turn up, that everyone has to be on the same page. I suppose everyone is still hoping that the iranians do turned up. The Iranian Oil Minister has said he will turn up if he has time, which seems like a casual approach. But managing expectations there as well. If theyy, the saudis, refuse to budge on their position, refusing to freeze out if everyone else does not agree to do so, than it would seem to be that deal looks dead in the water. Interesting is that some countries are jostling a position i had. Ahead. The russians producing more oil and marched and they have since the collapse of the soviet union. Theyre trying to get themselves into the best possible position before the ceasefire comes into effect. We will know when that dohar meeting takes place with those oil ministers. Manus elliott, great analogy. Lets bring in our next toast guest host. Friday, the oil market pushed lower. Here we are, the saudis laying out. Lovely pun. He doesnt look impressed. Here are the saudis laying down the road map, saying, get on board, everybody or else we will knick your customers. Oil prices are higher than they were at their lows, and this enthusiasm to rush around it paints a picture to me, there are shorts back in now and we will get oil prices a bit lower, but reminding that we are 50 a barrelpside, should comfortable he cover where we are going. Manus anna you do not think the oil rally is dead . Know, i think oil prices are in the process of bottoming. Prices are taking slightly higher, and shale production has come off a bit. It will come down enough to sort that out. We have rewritten the cost of getting oil of the ground, so we are in the process of racing basing. I think the Oil Price Collapse is over. Manus that collapse, this is when opec abandoned their overall production target. We can see this is saudi arabias specific production. The risk is this. Mission,s are on one to drive the baker hughes index down in the 90 states of america. In the United States of america. The russians are back in production. This is about holding onto their one line of revenue . They have no great interest in not solving the problem. They can go on having low oil prices and taking out marginal producers and still have plenty left for themselves. They have got panicked or worried this year the the extent of the fall went beyond what they thought would happen. They were certainly seeing barrell revenues falling and their budget deteriorate more than they were comfortable with. What do i know . But my sense is they are less worried at 40 than they were at 30. Anna when we look at the asian markets overnight, is it a Healthy Development that we have oil prices thereabouts on both there wasarks, a period when the oil price went lower, equities found it difficult to make headway. We have this correlation between low oil price, rising dollar, weakness and asian currencies and equity markets. Thinkk they might make me harder first thing in the morning, but would be a good thing early otherwise. Manus the Oil Currencies have had a nice boon. It is up, but from a low base. Do we retrace a little bit in rand, in aussie . Do you see some retracing in this commodity fx . Most of them are pretty cheap. The ruble got itself to a point where it was very cheap by most metrics. Someetersburg was back on vacation lists. To that extent, what we have seen is the short positions in those currencies have come out in the market. Down, oil price does come maybe a few people would like to take the outside. Anna kit stays with us on the ground. Here are some highlights from the week ahead. Manus greece refused talks with its creditors to complete a review of its latest bailout. This Committee Published a record of its march meeting, the last before the brexit vote. Anna on wednesday, the fed released minutes of its last releases minutes of its last monthly meeting. On thursday, the ecb publishes the account of its march meeting. For the first time ever, janet yellen and ben bernanke together. Manus what will that do for the dollar . Fxhave our man on the platform for the next 45 minutes. Next, what does Goldman Sachs say it is time to do with asian currencies . The battle of the opinion. Goldman versus socgen. Anna welcome back, it is 6 18. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash. Kumutha the u. K. Business secretary has refused to rule out a temporary nationalization. Speaking on the bbc, Andrew Marshall said he does not see nationalization as the answer and is confident he can find a buyer. I dont think that nationalization is a solution to this. Having said that, i dont think it would be prudent to rule anything out. But nationalization is rarely an answer in these situations. But after talking to many involved in this, i think there will be enough time to find the one buyer working with the government and being able to take it forward. Orange has abandon its intent to buy the phone business of bouygues. Bouygues said that the key Sticking Point where the employees and the level of its stake in orange. Goldman sachs says it is time to sell asian currencies after their best monthly rally in more than seven years. A goldman strategist says will reduce the decline with further even using. Further easing. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus thank you very much. Lets get over to nejra, because he will pick up the story in terms of Goldman Sachs. Why do they say it is time to take your money and run . Asian basically, currencies have their best monthly rally and march since 2008. Driven largely by a weaker dollar. 8. 5 . Ve the ringgit up you can see the korean won up as well. The taiwanese dollar up almost 3 . The won not just the best performer in asia, but across the whole of the emerging market space. Goldman says that asian exports are yet to recover. And expectations of further stimulus from the bank of japan. They say that these are good levels to short asian currencies, especially the won, the bart, the taiwan dollar, and the ringgit. They say there are direct effects you can see the yuan strengthening toward the dollar, but weakening versus a basket of currencies. Goldman says that china would want to retain those tradeweighted losses, if or when the greenback bounds. Yuan arethe won and more bearish then they are predicting than they are predicting. What goldman says is that to position yourself for this projected reversal in Asian Exchange rates, you have to short the korean won. Anna lets pick up this topic with kit. How do you look at the asian fx . Do you agree that it is time to sell or does that as a grouping not make sense because there are many stories . Kit , as a general story, it is part of the story. My biggest problem, if i ever have a problem with goldman, is that q1 was great, but january was dreadful. You dont expect markets to stare at the count of calendar before they sort out what to do with themselves. The Second Quarter could start being more difficult. Think the dollar is full enough. We have had the Chinese Dollar new year relief rally where certainly speculations have been stamped out effectively against the yuan. And theave stabilized markets have calmed down, but the underlying problems have not gone away. Im trying to work out what the catalyst will be. May might see more weakness in april, for the sake of an argument. , you can see the problems. The weakness of chinese demand for steel, so the increase of global supply, but we are not taking Global Resources capacity out yet. We dont particularly want to in this country. Those strains are all part of the downturn and the rebalancing of the chinese economy. An,t will lead to a weaker yu and with it a weaker won, more than any of the others. Manus one of the points that it goes back to is what happens with the dollar. Periodsvely story about of strength with the dollar. I will take you back to paul. That rally, 67 months under the tenure of paul. Says is thaticle you could see a reassertion of the dollar. The question is what the fed does next. This is the rally this far. 57 months and a kink at the end of. Hedge at the end. Hedge funds, the least bullish. When you look at those momentum moves, what do you think . Kit i dont think we have seen a high and the dollar. Someone asked me, when are you going to give up being bullish of the dollar. I said, when i can think of Something Else that i want to own. Janet yellen is very dovish for the dollar. She is negative. Real yields on securities have fallen. Everyone is rushing to revise down forecasts. Crumbles nomy rumbles along without anything happening. We are seeing a trend of Monetary Policy divergence in favor of the dollar. Over the next nine months, i think it takes it higher. It will be anything like the pace of what you saw between 2000 and 2015. Anna when you look at wages in the u. S. , 2. 3 as the average earnings number we have on wages. The average Hourly Earnings in the blue, set against the white, an alternative measure of wages from the atlanta fed. From people who have remained employed throughout this. There is a conversation about how distorted the average figure is. Kit that is one way of looking at it. You can see baby boomers are leaving the labor market on higher salaries, and are being replaced it makes me feel worried at my age. Manus, watch out. Manus how did i suddenly drop in . [laughter] kit being replaced by younger and cheaper workers. Obviously there is the whole shift that is happening. The results of that is, you have better wage growth for incumbents than the average. These are all the structural factors holding it down. The reality is that 2. 3 is just above inflation, 2 employment growth enough to keep it going. Manus up next, we will talk about greece. Manus it is 6 30 here in london, 7 30 in brussels. Lets get to your bloomberg first word news. Kumutha greece could face the threat of being pushed into default and out of the euro area if the current bailout review drags on and to july. That is according to european officials monitoring the slow progress of Prime Minister Alexis Tsiprass negotiations with creditors. They soothe angry still has to gap. Deal on its fiscal other issues like privatizing loans, and more, could continue to slow the talks. Saudi arabia seeming to back away from a supply freeze. Leading producers are in qatar later this month to discuss output levels. Saudi now says they will only cut levels if iran follows through. Pulled out of Production Cuts until it has lifted its output to presanctions levels. Leaks filed from a panama law from that created Shell Companies show that politicians, criminals, and celebrities worldwide have used banks and Shadow Companies to hide their finances, according to a series of reports by the International Consortium of investigative journalists. One report says at least 2 billion in transactions involves people and Companies Allegedly tied to russian president vladimir putin. Denied thatn has the u. K. Referendum on European Union membership is splitting his government. It comes after the culture secretary argues that the increase in britain britains minimum wage would push up immigration unless the country left the eu. Global news to you for hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on the ,go. Erg at top. Anna guy johnson is here with a look at the morning. Guy the green light is a long net shore position. Speculators are the most bullish in 14 months, and the bart chart is the holdings, the etf holdings, which are the largest out there. Anna taking up. Ticking up. Guy basically, the market, since the beginning of the year, had to deal with a couple things. The dollar is one factor, which has significant bearing on gold, and the other is volatility. In a volatile world, you may was having to dampen the volatility and hard assets tend to do that. It is unsurprising we have seen the rally we have seen since the start of the year. My question is, what happens next . If the dollar is going up again, maybe this chart will go down again. Anna kit . Kit i think that captures the dollar moving extremely well. As the market went into the fed meeting in december, everyone was bullish. The dollar bearish. The First Quarter has been a story of the chinese currency move abating, rethinking rate the dollar and down the dollar has gone and up gold has gone. I cannot see a catalyst turning it around on a sixpence, but most of the gold rally is probably done. Manus what does it take to reassert the dollar in that trend in that uptrend. You crack on with that answer. This will give you an idea of the dollar rally. Kit firstly, we have to move the in terms of pricing in possibility of one rate hike in the u. S. This year. Thinking we have several more through the course of 2017. The Unemployment Rate is falling, the rate might pick up and we will normalize rates a bit more. The alternatives are, back to another earlier story, if the chinese authorities want to start seeing a little bit more softness in the yuan, for example. And jump in again, if we see tensions about greece returning in earnest, that will do it. If Oil Prices Fall enough, and we get closer to 30 per barrel manus what if it suddenly circles back and just smacks kit it has never gone away. You are not going to be retiring with greece. Manus i will retire to a greece. [laughter] i will be webcasting from the beach. Anna that sounds good. We have an assignment for you, manus. Lets get more on the risk between the imf managing director Christine Lagarde and the bloomberg fx strategist in our athens studio. Why is this war of words happening between the imf and the greek government . There have been some leaks somewhere. Yes, wikileaks published a transcript of a reported dialogue where these imf officials are discussing allegedly the possibility of the imf pressuring america into accepting greek debt relief. The greek government was hasty to say the least in adopting these leaks into official dialogue. Officials accuse the imf of using the ongoing refugee crisis, the referendum and the july repayment needs and triggering a before event. There was a letter asking to clear up this situation and she came back with a strong response adopting this, we are the adults in the room stance. What she has to do is make sure the officials in athens are safe, that private matters are secure, and that there is no way that imf is discussing the credit default event for grace for greece. Manus i read that this is all about the imf being fully on board. If they are not on board, there are no rules. It is just politicians battling what to do. If the imf is on board, there are rules. Is this the hat tricks . The skeptic in me suggests this is so preposterous that the imf would conjure up a credit default situation in europe at the time of a brexit. Reporter i think that it has to do with greek politics. This transcript did not make us any wiser. The imf was always progreek debt relief, always progreek government cutting spending, rather than increasing taxes to the middle class as it keeps doing the past year and a half. I think the greek government goes on to antiimf rhetoric, keeping Government Spending at current levels, together with the latest polling intentions. Some of the voters from last september are dropping away from tsiprass party. The Main Opposition Party has an eight percentage point lead. To nine people of 10 when asked to the government is handling things said they are at least disappointed. It is a bit of theatrics, but things could be worse if the greece keeps under this stance of antiimf. Anna thank you. Strategistrg fx joining us there from athens. Manus still waiting to be sent on that assignment. Kit is still with us in the studio. What do you make of this latest turmoil around the greek bailout story . Evens been kept at bay, though it has been there all the time. Something that markets need to focus on and worry about unduly everyday. Problems, there is not enough economic growth, their debt is unsustainable, and their budget fiscal position isnt working because there is not enough growth. More debt relief in the future and more problems until someone waves a magic wand and gets the growth story happening again. Everything else is politics. In the sense that, we crossed a line sometime ago that greece is stepping on the euro, and ierything looks as though dont see how you could have come this far to walk back to where we were a couple years ago. Manus it looks as though we will go to a summer of brinkmanship again. 1. 1388 is where we are on eurodollar, kit. We have this piece about the tradeweighted euro. This is probably more to do with greek risk rising, more interesting transition mechanisms than currency. The currency is still 10 below where it was in the 2013 high. What next for the euro . Global intervention tends to come in at around 114 around 1. 14. Kit i dont think it can go very much higher given the lack of growth. We dont see any sort of push onto the global economy. I think the european economy will start weakening over the next few months. Or has been a change at the ecb to refocus on how do we get more money into the european economy, as opposed to, we need to get the euro weaker which is the story at the end of 2014, beginning of 2015. If on your chart, they engineered a rapid fall from 1. 28 to 1. 10 on that tradeweighted index. 1. 18, we are halfway back. Right about here you say, we dont want any more strength. Anna if we could transition from grexit to brexit, by one data,ant, currency count did this give you sleepless nights . The extensive vulnerability of the u. K. Economy. , what worriesdi you about that . Kit the first thing that the current account data is that we are almost at 100 billion pounds which is a mind blowing number. 7 of gdp in the fourth quarter. Fact that the driver twice 5 of this is not our trading goods, it is not our trade in services. Large nationals are mostly earning less on commodities, particularly oil. Anna you start to wonder if Weaker Oil Prices are good for the economy. Kit there is this thing playing in my head that says Multinational Companies do we see the money when a large u. K. Domiciled company that has intercompany loans do we see that money in the u. K. . Their employees are not in the u. K. , their shareholders are not necessarily in the u. K. I look at it a bit and saying, it is more complicated. Am i allowed to differentiate between the current account and the capital account and say, current account deficit bad and requires capital inflows . What is happening is another huge company is deciding this week to borrow money as opposed to putting money back it is very messy. It comes right back to the ,eginning, that first number, 100 billion pound currentaccount deficit at a time when you are thinking of flowing off into the north atlantic and further from europe cannot be good for the pound. Manus certainly not in terms of volume. We talk a lot it literally everyday. We are back at those levels we saw in terms of volatility back in june of last year. Volatility, i love what you wrote in your notes which is long oil and short sterling. Kit that was part of my reaction to the data. The only way that it improves is if oil prices bounce. Manus we are guessing on the moment . I am comfortable with that. I want to remain short sterling. Oilt sterling against through one form or another. I will grant you, on a day when oil prices are going down, we could short the lot of them. Manus i will not kill you for a 1 fall on oil. Anna kit, joining us for the last 45 minutes. Steel could britains industry be back under Public Ownership as the government refuses to rule out nationalization . Anna stay tuned to bloomberg, on the move will be joined by the ceo of russias largest second largest bank. And at 8 15, u. K. Time. Anna welcome back, this is countdown. Futures pretty flat at the start of the u. S. Treating day in new york trading day in new york. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Kumutha orange has abandoned its attempt to buy the phone business of week bouygues. It would have eased competition and one of europes toughest markets. Es said that key Sticking Points were social guarantees for its employees in the level of its stake in orange. Ready to sell asian currencies after their best monthly rally in more than seven years. A goldman strategist who predicted this recovery says that currencies will resume their decline of further easing in china and japan. A gauge of 10 currencies rose 3 in march. The you ks business secretary the u. K. s business secretary refused to rule out nationalization of the British Steel operation. But he says he does not see nationalization as the answer and is confident that he can find a buyer. I dont think that nationalization is a solution to this. Even for a few weeks . Having said that, i also think it would not be prudent to rule anything out, but nationalization is really an answer in these situations. I do feel after talking to many involved in this that there will be enough time to find the right buyer, working with the government, and being able to take it forward. Kumutha that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus lets get a little bit our on the steel story with bloomberg at fly, chris bryans. Bloomberg gadfly, chris bryans. I love what you put down is the reality for what is going wrong in the u. K. They are substantial. Thats right. Tata essentially facing is essentially facing two main problems. Right now,weak partly due to Global Demand but also chinese week capacity which has led to lots of steel imports coming into europe and making life tough for steelmakers there. But the problems are also somewhat homemade. In two dozen seven, t in 2007, tata paid 2. 7 billion pounds, which seemed like a highpriced than. High price then. The crisis came along, steel demand declined it hasnt recovered since then. Now, its operations in europe are struggling, in particular in the united kingdom. It needs to do something. Debt is almost around 11 billion u. S. Dollars. They were downgraded on friday by fitch. The company felt like it could not carry on the status quo and announced that u. K. Operations were up for sale. Anna what are the barriers to securing a deal for the plant . Yesterday there were talking about the three ps, power, plants and pensions as being topics of conversation with potential bidders. Life for the u. K. Government. Tata has not been a poor investor. To been investing heavily in the u. K. Operations, trying to turn them around, but clearly felt they could not do so. The question now is, what could change to turn that story around. The u. K. Business secretary mentioned those items. Clearly, power prices are a challenge to produce steel profitably in the united kingdom. There is something that could be done there, but the u. K. Has to be careful not to run foul of competition in europe. There is a big problem with the pensions of the u. K. Steel operations. 15 billion pound pension plan that is in deficit. The u. K. Could offer assistance there, but any buyer will be worried about taking on liability for those pensions. Our gadflys bryans, columnist. Anna it could be not viable to the longterm he is sam bowman. Great to have you on the program. You clearly come to this from one end of the spectrum. Im assuming that you would not see as appropriate to see any government involvement in propping up this business . Thats right. I think the problem is that where there might be a case for a short term bridging involvement with the government, lets say a buyer cannot get the funding together in the next three months, and the government has to step in and to help, the danger is we could be left carrying the baby. The buyer who seemed like they were willing to buy the firm is left in the end. The problem is, it does not look as if these plants are viable in the long run. They are based around glass furnace technology, where is the industry globally is moving toward recycling the steel we already have two furnaces. These are electric driven and coal driven. He other problem is, the u. K does not have a comparative advantage. We import all the materials that we use, we import the iron ore. It without these renewable tariffs. Anna the government has said they are doing something on that and could do more . There is not much we could do. France has invested in nuclear power, we did not do that. Since we do not have those decades of investment in much cheaper sources of energy, energy is more expensive. It is all most double the price france. Then in than what it is in france. Labor costs aside, it is difficult to see a longterm comparative advantage in steel in the u. K. Manus you said, this could very well be the steel industrys coal moment. Politically, it does not seem to be that intense, are we at that point . I think we are long past that point. Industrys best days are long behind it. Manus i know that we are in pointe, but is there any in the secretary saying we will subsidize Energy Prices . This is just, after the horse has bolted stuff, isnt it . I think that is true. There are places in the u. K. That have successfully desteelized, so to speak. Steel was the number one employer in this region, and when the industry wound down, the local government set up an enterprise zone and now is one of the u. K. Centers for manufacturing cars and aerospace. Anna sam, what have we learned talking about the 1980s . But the level of support, transitions and infrastructure . What we learn from that that we can apply . We learned that there is not a huge amount the government can do. They can attract investment if there are people willing to work in these jobs and willing to upscale. There is a role in government in helping people to upscale. Part of them are slightly like roundabout subsidies. They give capital exceptions that are completely above anything we would normally give. But they are industries of the future. They are very productive and may provide longterm jobs. Anna sam bowman, executive director of the Adam Smith Institute joining us to talk but the latest on this story. Manus a little bit more from our Saudi Arabian interview with our editor in chief. Basically saying that the government is in talks with Foreign Developers to create hardships. The ambition is to build almost one million homes of affordable housing. They are in talks with Foreign Developers. Anna we are going to be talking to the housing minister, or hearing from the housing minister in saudi and the next hour. A lot more on that steel story to come. Manus the bearish bets are back. Short positions on oil increase for the first time in eight weeks. Saudi arabia backs away from a supply freeze very the nation is facing a chronic shortage and will need to build more than one million homes in order to meet demand. Sachs encourages investors to sell asian currencies after the best rally in more than seven years. Greeces bailout review hangs in the balance. Credits renew talks in athens. A leaked report heightens imf and theween the greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. You are welcome. It is countdown, and a morning. Anna welcome to the program everyone. Let us get straight to the breaking news. New details from our fivehour interview with the royal family in saudi arabia on friday. They are aiming for 100 billion in addition in nonoil income. A really big reorientation happening in saudi. More from this exclusive interview that the deputy crown on friday. Ucted they want to raise annexed or when hundred billion dollars a year by 2020, more than tripling their nonoil income. In a country that has handed out money to the population. A readjustment. A government looking to raise money. When a fundamental shift you look at what is potentially being proposed. , sugaryn luxury goods drinks and others. This is about shifting to a new low oil paradigm and that is what is coming through from the deputy crown prince. A large package of reforms. Nonoil income rose 35 last year. That was from the preliminary budget. This is a radical change. Re is a headline there selling dollar bonds before the end of the year. Big statements. A new wealth fund to be created. Talking about a world post oil. Anna reader verse of fine the sifyingstreams rediver income streams. Saudi is still not exactly like the rest of the world. This that we are seeing from this interview and what impact is that having on oil . What impact is that having on the futures market . Looks like we are set for a little bit of a bounce at the start of the european trading day. Manus the whole point is that you have a short positions on oil. A couple of weeks ago we were talking about how this was the in history. The shortsis are Building Back up again. What does that mean for the dollar . We have some cracking stories on the momentum and size and scale of the previous dollar rallies. We will have a little bit more in terms of some of the saudi views. Anna lets update you on what is happening elsewhere. Down 1 on brent. Gold prices retreating a little bit down. 3 despite the story that guy brought us earlier regarding the renewed appetite on gold. Manus they ratcheted higher. You can see these long positions ratcheting higher in terms of the positions of gold. If you believe the fed will not move, you want to be on long commodities. Anna let us get the bloomberg first news now. Kumatha greece could again face the threat of being pushed into default and out of the euro area if its current bailout review drags into june and july according to european officials monitoring the slow progress of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is negotiations with creditors. They say greece has still not cut a deal on pensions. In a proposed Privatization Fund continues to slow talks. The imf managing director Christine Lagarde has issued an unusually strong statement. She says it is critical that the privacy of the funds internal discussions following the leaking that imf officials allegedly discussed putting pressure on germany to give greece debt relief. Leaked files from panama law firm that creates Shell Company showing politicians, criminals, and celebrities worldwide have used banks and Shadow Companies to hide their finances according by theries of reports International Consortium of investigative journalists. Inleast 2 billion transactions involve people in Company Allegedly tied with the russian president vladimir putin. Japanese companies have cut their forecast for inflation for indicatingve years that even after adopting a negative rate policy, the bank of japan is struggling to convince businesses that will take cold. 1. 2 of inflation at this time in five years down from 1. 4 estimated in december. Acceleratingort is activity today after restarting services yesterday. In the wake of last month deadly terror attack. Tightened security in a makeshift check in area will 800rict productivity to passengers and our. David cameron has denied that the u. K. Referendum on European Union membership is splitting his government after the culture secretary argues that the increase in britains minimum wage would push up immigration unless the country left the eu. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Get up to speed with the asian markets. There are a few markets out on vacation today. Hello, good morning. Of a confusion. The yen is a big factor in japan right now and depending on how the fed moves, that will be impacting to pam. Last week japan was moving in the opposite direction from markets because even though globally everyone was optimistic about the feds taking a more stance on raising rates, that means a stronger yen for japan. It was fluctuating mostly. The yen was a bit stronger as traders still dont seem to expect the fed to move. At the same time, we had good u. S. Economic aid at which was bullish. Ultimately, the market closed pretty much flat. Both ideas playing against each other. Anna thank you very much. Joining us from tokyo. We broke a lot of headlines at the start of the program about the budget in saudi arabia. Before that, we had news out of the housing sector. We have some further details. Manus the ambition is to build a million homes. This is about resolving the housing crisis. With then exclusive housing minister in saudi arabia. We developed something called the saudi housing segmentation. We directed the market based on the output of this analysis. Sectorr it was private was developing housing. And then finding the beneficiary of that. Now, we are changing this method. Plan is toour initiate a direction back to Home Ownership with the citizens. Where a citizen within one year fromknow what is required the private sector to develop. Own a know that i could home in a few years. That will kick off this Development Starting now. Within five years we should finish that. Some of the programs will take 24 years. In 78 years we should be able to meet demand. Anna saudi arabias housing minister. Running the story, it is aiming to raise 100 alien dollars by boosting taxes and accelerating subsidy cuts in an effort to spread the burden of lower crude prices. Really well done on this story giving us more insight into the changing directions of the saudi story. Tell us more about the deputy crown princes plan. It is fascinating to know that saudi owls also has housing issues. Glen he is implementing unprecedented changes to the economy. Historically, saudi arabia has depended on oil. Now, this is changing. He wants to raise 10 billion from value added tax or 2020. And that a green card light program. And fromon from fees subsidy reforms. He is changing the way the government earns revenue and this is historical in the context of the country and how much it has depended on oil revenue in the past. Anna amazing changes when you compare saudi arabia and the way it functions as an entity compared to other countries. No income tax. There will be vta after this but no plans for income tax yet. Conveyedt is what he during the interview. They are looking at specific areas they think they can target to get additional revenue to help them manage lower oil prices. The deputy crown prince himself says he wants to wean saudi arabia from its oil dependency. He has been discussing this internally with his advisers even before he became deputy crown prince. Manus a very interesting shift. A huge societal shift. Also, the headline is ready to debut dollar bonds before the year and. If we go back to the early 1990s, there was a plundering of the middle east in terms of overpricing. 25 years later we have saudi reaching out and in courage in and encouraging Foreign Investment back into the country. Glen they want to bring in investment and diversify their sources of revenue. It dollar bonds they plan, is not so much that they need the money but they want to send a wrench mark for the country to get back into the debt market. They are doing well. And bigger diversity plan how they will manage their money and tap into International Markets for funds. Anna thank you for joining us. Manus let us get a little bit more on the rift between the imf director Christine Lagarde and the greek government. Athens has more on this war of words. Are we surprised it has come to this . It looks like there has been a leak. Is there trust or mistrust . Things lookeday, much better than right now. If you would ask me on friday have negotiations were going, i would say in the next couple of weeks it would be probable that we could get a substantive agreement. After the leaked transcript through wikileaks of the reported conversations between imf. Things have gone bad for sure. The greek government is taking this league into official dialogue. The greek officials have said that the imf is using the immigration issues. To create a credit default in greece before the summer. Christine lagarde answered with an aggressive and strong worded saying that what greek had to do. Planning ton no way go for a credit default in greece. It wants to make sure the officials in athens are secure and the conversations remain private. Anna is this something we should take seriously . Gettingstic policies more of an airing the necessary . Take us below the headline. Accurate this is the theatrics. Tsipras the Main Opposition Party is up right a percentage points. That is what we come down to. Adopting an antiimf rhetoric that could go well with his electric. Electorate. It goes down to who will back down. From what history teaches us, it will not be the imf. There you have it. Let us see how this one runs. Next, backing britain in the eu. We have the deloitte survey. Their take on the brexit debate. That is coming up next on countdown. Anna welcome back. Here in london, it is 7 19 a. M. The ftse features suggest we will be flat on the trading day. Is here with what to look ahead for in europe. Caroline the very little bounce happening in asia. This is the mx ap. What is selloff we had on friday. The worst day we have seen in seven weeks in this index. We are picking up ever so slightly. Very slighto those gains. Slight rebound going on. Overall, we are still concerned that janet yellen will remain committed to cautiously lifting rates. The backandforth is what is happening in the oil markets. I want to focus on the commodities. How much could we see in emerging markets and also asia rebound when you have commodities on the downside. The phenomenal story, the exclusive coming out with the deputy prince of saudi arabia the deputy crown prince. That story still having ramifications in the market, tugging down on the oil. This is in orange. The brent commodity. It is down, off by 1. 5 . Similar drop in copper in the last few days. A lot of volatility in the industry if youre looking at metals and oil. Saudi arabia really seeing the effects on its markets. Interestingly, copper is down for a seventh day. The longest losing streak we have seen for copper in two years, since 2014. The First Quarter rally fading. Concerns once again about the glut in oil and the lack of a Production Cut coming from opec is clearly what is driving these bearish bets. Manus, you have been looking at a great chart. Nymex crude oil. We are looking at this. Eight straight weeks, we have bullish sentiment when it comes to oil but suddenly, we have gone a tick higher for the first time in eight weeks. Starting to see that data showing more contracts are being put against oil prices. Oversh bets rising to 11,000 contracts, 70 uptick in bets against oil prices. Uptick in bets. I want you to remember that there are two kooky stocks to key stocks on two to keep an eye on. In talks to be discussing. For the third time of trying. To see if they would sell that telecom unit to orange. Uygues. The concerns were right. Over the weekend from it was a make or break and it was break. They could not get a deal. Seems like the negotiations have ended. Anna thank you very much, caroline hyde. Manus let us talk about deloitte. 75 of the cfos support britain staying in the eu. Deloitte chief economist is here. Ian, good to have you here on set with us this morning. 75 , increasing levels of support that you surveyed for staying in the eu. Ian these are very large businesses. Overwhelmingly ftse 350 companies. We are interested in not just the views of the sector. This is the top end of the u. K. Sector. Anna with export businesses. Panel verage, our ftse 100. In excess of half of their revenue comes from outside of the u. K. Manus 75 are in favor of remaining, up from 62 . They are not hurrying themselves to prepare for a brexit event. There is no monumental Disaster Recovery plan being put in place. And brexit may not be a disaster. Ian very judicious. I think what is happening is that we have often seen that the tendency by corporate to wait quite late in not planning. Role, thatven in my there has been a dramatic rise in the interest of conversations we are having with corporate about this. A lot of them take the face value of the polls. Manus what is their biggest worry . the uncertainty. If you look at the variety of the boris brexit from option of having a referendum and renegotiating and then having another referendum and staying in to joining the world trade organization. Youre talking about a time frame of two years. Anna even if some of these businesses are not putting in disaster plans in place Risk Appetite has been reduced. This has been expressed in their hiring intentions. we have been through some ups and downs in the last eight years and you do see these crises. Huge dampening effect on Risk Appetites. We are now seeing corporate Risk Appetite fall away. About half the levels they were a year ago. S anna ian, thank you so much for joining us. Manus that will be it from anna and i this morning. Is next. Ove show me movies with explosions. Show me more like this. Show me previously watched. Whats recommended for me. X1 makes it easy to find what blows you away. Call or go onliand switch to x1. Only with xfinity. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Guy welcome to on the move. 7 30 a. M. Here in london. We are counting you down to the european open. The pair of us are watching these things this morning, will berlin blink on debt relief for greece. Elite relief elite report a leaked report heightens tensions between the imf and greece. Saudi arabia backed away from a

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