Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20151204

Thrashing. Stocks jobbing the most since august. The euro soaring the most in five years. Manus the question is, this is yesterdays move. A rally about 3 . The biggest move since 2009 when the fed said they would buy 300 million off the treasuries. The question i am asking is, is this euro drop me euro rally debt . Bed . Dead . Anna we have the jobs report of the u. S. How week with that number have to be to keep the fed from raising . Manus we go for an Unemployment Rate of 5 . Yellen has given us the curtain raise. Anna lets get a first word news. Slipped the euro has the most since 2009. Investors shift their addition attention to the rate hike. It was versus the dollar yesterday. Sachs has goldman called for the euro to plunge not go as planned. They predicted a dovish surprise for mario draghi would send the euro tumbling. Robin brooks is now rethinking his entire week euro thesis. Today was not a most fun i have had he said. Opec ministers prepare to meet indiana to decide out the policy. Sources say that saudi arabia held its line in discussions yesterday, insisting producers like russia would have to join output cut by opec. Planned stock market Circuit Breaker. Under a proposal announced in september, a move of 5 in the csi 300 index would trigger a 10 point halt in trading in stocks, options, and index futures. That is your first word news, for more on these stories had to bloomberg. Com. And it global stock a selloff, not exactly what you would expect from a deposit rate , andnd a euro expansion less you are expecting more. There is Mario Draghis press conference in 60 seconds. Decided toi we extend the asset program. Billiony purchase of 60 euros under the Asset Purchase Program are now intended to run until the end of march. 17, or beyond if necessary. We are doing more because it works, not because it fails. The governing council will closely monitor the evolution and the outlook of priced ability price stability. Tothey are willing and able act by using all of the instruments available within the mandate in order to obtain an appropriately agreed monetary amount. We have to be alert. We have to be continuing our efforts to pursue and achieve the price stability. Well aware that the surrounding conditions may actually get worse because of these geopolitical risks. Manus for more we are joined by hans nichols. And Juliette Saly in hong kong. Juliet, take us through it. It looks as if asia is joining and in terms of a global selloff. Juliette saly good morning. Look at this. Look at all of the selling we have seen any reason. Not a great end to the trading week. We have been seeing quite a lot of selling coming through. If we look at china here talking about the fact that the Circuit Breaker will come in in the new year. We also had shanghai regulators saying they will resume those ideas after that fivemonth halt. About another 10 to come online. The risk in shenzhen in the coming days. Despite that we have seen a risk of appetite in china. The shanghai composite down by 1. 6 . So asin the next hour or we have seen on wednesday and thursday, there has been a lot of buying. That speculation of Government Intervention coming through in the last hour of trade. Looking at korea and japan, they have closed. The nikkei 225 down by 2. 2 . A big drop coming through in japan. Australia closed an hour ago, hit by that downturn in crude. This is the picture on a regional index. Every sector in the red. Lets have a look at the major movers in asia. Hyundai fell, after a federal court judge in miami ruled that drivers can sue over faulty airbags. We also are watching casinos impacted by the downturn in gaming revenue. Trial results in a sevenyear low. Crown results in australia. A sevenyear low. Regis resources and news crest having a solid day. The aura Energy Sector is in focus. From europe and followed in the selling. Manus thank you. Wrapping up all of the business day in hong kong. S, we also had a response from the ecb. he criticizes the market for being too shortsighted saying eventually the market will figure it out. Neday market master to Market Reaction is not an indictment of centralbank policy. He said one of the most and port and things that mario draghi for himself was give him room to be flexible. Have a listen. Touche collects the market was more or less created more expectations then was obviously in the card. What is being done by the ecb and what works come of most important sentence in my opinion by mario draghi today was if you do more, it is not because it failed, but because it worked. i want to come back as a central banker, you are never wrong. Only the market can be round wrong. It is kind of like anchors and presenters, they are never at fault. I think there is a similar role for presenters. You do not criticize other presenters, same for central bankers. Clearly he is not going to criticize mr. Draghi. A little bit of criticism for the politician on fiscal policy. Anna too many controversial topics. I will take a dignified silence. Hans nichols in berlin. Manus i never criticize anybody. Some investors were surprised by Mario Draghis measures. It was not just market watchers janet yellen had this to say about ecb. Janet yellen my understanding is the market expected actions that were not forthcoming. Anna she is smiling im not sure. We will talk about the fed. What was the problem with yesterday,steven . Should mario draghi have let harder . Harder . He delivered easing from the ecb perspective. Second point, more important is what it was price that priced at. One way to look at this is yields on shortterm european bonds. They had fallen to very low levels. 45 basis points. That signaled there was an enormous amount and huge expectations. From that, i think the market had gotten ahead of itself. Anna should he have loaned against that . Steven it is hard to say. It is hard to signal that. Manus jamie, and terms of the fact of what he did, qe was expended extended, from an economics point of view, what did you make of it . Jamie i do not think there is more sinless now than before the meeting. People expected purchases to run beyond. Cut n the deposit rate i think most people think what on earth is he going on about . Why does he not change his tactic. If you meant more resistance than he was expecting, i think that probably explains why we are not think having bigger. Anna differing opinions on the size of what was actually delivered. You do they get a significant you do think it was significant. Steven we were calling for 20 basis point cut in the deposit rate, we got 10, we were expecting an increase in the run rate. The market had built in huge expectations. Back hat comes essentially, the market presumed so much of mario draghi. He said there was a good majority that would have gone with this. The question from it affects prism is that mario draghi put dead . Jamie your first question, is a dead . I dont think so. Eurodollar not long ago was at 1. 15. It moved down to 1. 06. The move really came when mr. Draghi started speaking devilishly dovish lee in october. He wanted a weaker euro. He also wanted Inflation Expectations to rise. Anna do think the governing council would have been surprised . They knew it would happen because they were not delivering as much. Steven im sure he would be disappointed. What to expect when youre not littering . Delivering . Manus you have this permanent view on your sterling euro sterling. This reprieve for the fx market in terms of the dollar higher, the euro is traveling back higher. What is that do for carney . He is caught between the two. He has janet yellen and mario draghi. What does this do for the bank having with . Went. Y giving bank of england. Steven i would argue there is more pressure on the bank of england to hike then these then the fed. Is problem for mark carney clearly, he does not want to preempt the fed. There is no way he would have wanted to have been forced to hike ahead. The fact the fed is likely to go in december means he is free to go now, when he needs to. We would argue he needs to move much quicker than what the market is pricing. May, 2016 isg for the first bank of england rate hike. It is a long way away with the market is currently pricing and. In. By then we will have already gone. Anna thank you very much. Jamie, thank you very much. Manus lets get to what is on the day ahead. 7 00 a. M. We get the german factory orders. At 9 00 a. M. It is all about the oil and opec kicks off its opening session. Anna then at 1 30 we get the u. S. Jobs report. Will have further analysis of that. Manus it is decision they had opec, we are live in vienna. Ryan chilcote is chasing everyone. Anna you are watching countdown. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you, anna. Uber is looking to raise money that would value the car company at 62. 5 billion. In new funding shows they are accelerating rate to expand globally and branch into the services. Suit andny has tested packaging in some cities, and is working on new Technology Like self driving cars. Meanwhile, rivals of the company are teaming up. They will Work Together to offer traveling overseas seamless access arrived at using the same application the user home. They use at home. There is a takeover of sab miller, saying the deal would force them to pay lower for more holiday. The acquisition by the largest brewer would create a monopoly in the beer market, in violation of u. S. Antitrust law. For more on these stories and others had to bloomberg. Com. Anna thank you. Track toec could be on maintain policy after members clash ahead of the biannual meeting. Anna saudi arabias strategy to allow output to rise to push out higher cost producers. Brian is in vienna Ryan Chilcote is in vienna. It is hours away from decision time for opec. The oil minister start gathering in three hours, and then we will get their decision. For a little analysis i am joined by julian lee. Thank you. You have been coming to these meetings since the end of the 80s. Julian lee i have been following them since then. Ryan give me a sense of the mood. Julian lee very different from june. It is not just the air temperature. Can feel a real feel chill. They came out and said they were happy with the market, the policy was working, this time he is not being to anyone. The most he has said is he will listen to what the other opec members have to say. There is not a mood of despondency, but certainly not a very upbeat filling. Feeling. Ryan that comment is one that a lot of journalist dismissed. At the end of the day, the saudis coffee shop. They sort of muscles everyone into this strategy in november last year. Let production rise, squeeze out highcost producers, with hopes that the prices would rebound. Now that we are in the second year, working . Many people say it is not. Julian lee i think it is not working as quickly as certainly opec people would like. It is not working as quickly as many people thought it might. Everyone thought if we had six months of low oil prices that u. S. Shale production would fall quickly, it has not. What we do have to bear in mind is that a year ago, two years ago, u. S. Production was growing by more than a Million Barrels a day. Now it is definitely in decline. Very, very slow decline, but it is declining. That has to be looked at as unsuccessful policy. It has not worked through yet. Ryan look into your crystal ball, almost everyone expects that opec will keep the Production Target where it is. Nonetheless, it is important the fine print is important. What we look for in the meeting julian lee i think we are for a sense of mood. Whether or not saudi arabia is prepared to look at policy, not at this meeting, not of the next, but down the line. Whether there is any sense of anybody from outside of opec thinking about joining in, they certainly doesnt seem to be at the moment. That has been saudi arabias online. Bottom line. They are not prepared to do this on their own. It once concerted action from everyone. Strategist,as oil he has been here since the 1980s, he says this one is that different. Back to you. Anna thank you. Ryan chilcote live from vienna. Stephen,lets bring in the global head of strategy. You isworld giving this opec meeting giving you reason to think . Steven i think it is very important. Certainly from our expectations, oil will remain under pressure. We are not accepting anything big. Commodity markets are super important. One of the other points we would highlight here is that the chinese economy is changing. Certainly from our perspective it is moving away from the manufacturebased economy more towards the service sector. It is good for china, but it will not help Commodity Prices. We have seen this, not just with oil, but other commodities such as iron ore. Manus strange you should mention iron ore, this is the benchmark we have seen multiyear lows. This is the essence of why you steven it is the largest export. The supply continues to increase. The a new mine a new mine opened this week. You can see what is happening with the price. Aussie dollar is not responding. Of the u. S. Has been rallying. The point we would make intel yesterday was diverging dramatically with eurodollar. The key point here is we are looking for ways to play dollar strength. We still effect the fed to hike expect the fed to hike. The euro had gone too far, but if you look at what could catch up, obviously everyone. Who would like to sell aussie dollar. We think where we have been recently is unsustainable. We think it moves lower. At least 70. We are targeting a move to . 67 as we go into 2016. Anna is this because of the fed . Or is it the slowdown in china . Steven it is both. The u. S. Has a big impact in what is going on. I dont think the market has fully pressed price in fed tightening. You have is negative outlook as far as Commodity Currencies are turned. Concerned. Estimates are that you will see again, originally in the past 24 hours, you will see 60 of the world major Central Banks having to move lower in a year. Most of it is on the right side. When we think about commodity currency, we think about what iron ore is an oil. To that story change . Steven you have this big divergence coming, i would argue that matt is too optimistic map is too optimistic. The two that we think will hike are the u. S. And u. K. We think the risk is other countries continue to ease. We have mentioned australia, i would broaden that to the Commodity Currencies generally. If Commodity Prices still remain on the floor, it will be putting pressure on those Central Banks to use further. Anna thank you very much. Manus up next, we are in paris. It is the first week of the uns Climate Change summit. We will break it all down for you. The question is, are they running out of steam . That is next. Sure, tv has evolved over the years. Its gotten squarer. Brighter. Bigger. Its gotten thinner. Even curvier. But whats next . For all binge watchers. Movie geeks. Sports freaks. X1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. Manus welcome back, it is officially 6 30 here in london. 7 30. Ssels it is i love looking at my watch. Slipped the euro has back against the dollar after the biggest oneday jump in 2009. That is because investors shift their attention to the u. S. Payroll report that might indicate a fed rate hike. Is searched 3. 1 versus the dollar yesterday. Sachs has goldman called for the euro to plunge it did not go as planned after predicting a dovish surprise from mario draghi, defending euros tumbling. The chief strategist is rethinking the weak euro thesis. Opec ministers meet. Bloomberg sources that say saudi arabia held its line in discussions yesterday, insisting big nonmember producers like russia would have to join output cuts by opec. The u. K. Collected 66. 5 billion pounds in taxes from the Financial Service industry. The highest total since 2007. The industry contributed 11 of total u. K. Government tax receipts, according to a report from Price Waterhouse cooper. That is your first word, for more head to the website. Anna thank you. Manus no deal yet. Be quite a summit is underway in paris. World leaders have yet to agree on meaningful changes. Caroline spoke exclusively to the French Energy and environment minister and started by asking her, what the biggest obstacles were. Line the Biggest Challenges finance. Countries have to agree on a real agreement. May have to finance the transfer of technology. A renewable sustainable energy, especially africa, and they need to obtain finance because outside finance there is nothing true or credible. It is estimated that this finance needs the transfer from developed nations to developing nations is around 100 billion. Last year, Climate Summit was around 100 60 billion. There is 40 billion we need to find . Yes, but a more important how thehis point is, money will be spent. The government of the finance fine financing. Are we going to transfer 40 billion before december 11 . Yes, we will do it. Public finance, it is private. Company is realizing investing in Green Economy is a good or business i think this one yes. Realistic to reach a legally binding agreement . Only is not it is not only realistic. Responsible. Believepinion does not an agreement which is not legally binding. Even if it will be difficult . I think barack obama will make a statement very clear, and very powerful. Im sure it is going to find a the willingness of his engagement. The first week of the uns Climate Change talks are nearing an end. How much closer are we to the first global deal in almost two decades . Caroline hyde is there. Also joining us from paris is Richard Jackson from bloomberg finance. Caroline, lets go to you first. Bring us uptodate. I think a picture tells a thousand words. Look around. Where have the people and the energy gone . The has seemed to have flown out with the Global Leaders that started this set of discussion with such optimism for the First Ever Global records since 18 years. Outmism seems to be seeking seeping out. Also the negotiations on the agreement. The reports of the moment say that some of the four pages of text 54 pages of text was whittled down by five pages. There are still 250 undecided options. The time is ticking. Come saturday, tomorrow at noon, french time, this is when the foreign minister of france leading the charge for the yuan discussion in terms of france, the tech to pass on to be the more senior negotiators. Still, key concerns. Not much work has been done. Manus caroline, a good day to you. What are the sticking points . What are always the sticking points money. We were just talking about the transference of 100 billion per year from developed nations to developing. This is an agreement that the industrial world signed up to in 1992. They would help pay for developing nations to clean the energy. Also, to fend off best to protect themselves against the rising sea levels. Help healthy islands the islands from thinking. Sinking. Clearly there are concerns that the money is not decided. The united states, the first country to sign up for this agreement that they would help transfer money from developed to developing nations, they said, we want more people to sign up. We want help from china, india, the other emerging markets. , buthave cash to splash are also among the World Biggest worlds biggest polluters. A big test, still no agreement. Anna richard, do you think we will get the deal . Richard i think that we need to consider paris as part of a much, much longer process. The Paris Agreement was never going to be the end of the uns climate negotiations. Situation the situation has been discussed since 1995. His is just one milestone in will likely last for years. The agreement we are likely to get will reflect the need to keep everyone on board. All of these big issues around finance, transparent the, do they want something more descriptive . A certain level down from a baseline . These issues will not be solved. They were not supposed to be. The agreement here is going to up for negotiations in years to come. The negotiation, the official one is supposed to be entered today. Again, we need to look at the precedent. Where does the process usually get to it by this point get to buy this point. It has never been the case for negotiations have wrapped up on time in preparation for minutes is coming in ministers coming in. I think we should expect the same narrative will be continued in a fleshing out of details continued around the key issues throughout next week. Probably extending the deadline. Passed the 11th. T the 11th. We will get a final outcome which everyone can go home happy with. It will not solve any of these issues. It will only prolong the debates. Manus thank you. Richard and caroline. Wea stay with bloomberg, will bring you ongoing coverage from paris including interviews, that is this morning at 7 30. Ignacio is coming up in less than an hour. Manus it is the first friday of the month. Everyone is focused what is it mean . Doesnt mean . It is all about jobs. That might use the likelihood that the fed first rate hike since 2006 might come into play. And Unemployment Rate stays steady at 5 . Just above the fed target. Lets bring in the global head of fx strategy. Where should we go with this conversation . I am almost bored with it. I would like to see 25 basis points it done and dusted. What could stop the . Them . What could happen in the data today that would delay janet yellen . Steven we have on the move two points for the fed not to hike. That we would need a very low reading, say around 100,000. It is only i think in that extreme event that the fed would not cut. The key point we would make here is, what worries the fed is a repeat of may 2013 where they mentioned the taper word and the market got very edgy. I think the key point we would make is, they have signaled to us very clearly they want to hike. Hink borrowing a huge barring a huge catastrophe, that will happen. Around 74 right now, that number has been utterly climbing. Steadily climbing. , thinkingany risk about yesterday. It is a little easier with the rate hikes. Is there any chance that markets get caught off guard, on the wrong side of momentum . Steven after yesterday there is always a chance. I would highlight here is the signals we have been getting from three very key said members members. Embers fed they have been clear. That a strong information. From my perspective as an fx strategist, we think the fed delivers, the dollar does well, and we are looking for ways to play to the dollars strengths. The eurodollar had gone a long way. 24 hours ago, short eurodollar was definitely not the best way to play. People had been talking about the aussie. Also dollar against emerging wealth was good. Manus you would say going into seefed, you are happy to the euro higher because that means the News Conference will not be about the strong dollar. We have also seen breaking news russia has had its outlook raised to stable. The ruble is one of the worst performing currencies. When you see news like that, does that do anything in terms r effective on a real ble . I think the key points we would highlight here as far as russia is concerned, straightforward one is the oil price. Is low. It is low. We do not expect a change from opec today. The big point here is sanctions. Seizey as we continue to sanctions from the u. S. , the eu on russia that is going to hinder business. Has underperformed dramatically. 3. 70 . We are down it is certainly not the most analogous calamitous. Steven we have seen stabilization, i dont think that will be the trend. If we do not get a change in policy from opec. Anna it comes back to oil. Thank you. Countdown. Manus cash strapped opec members class with saudi arabia. It is all about Production Targets. We will talk oil, coming up next. Anna welcome back. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business. Hondaer to cut and shares have did in tokyo after a u. S. Judge ordered they must face a consumer long lawsuit over airbags. They say buyers can pursue classaction under warranty and civil racketeering laws. Billion takeover of miller claim the acquisition would create a monopoly any beer market, in violation of u. S. Antitrust law. Investmentement, the firm hurt in the last few years over something returns as they come back is at hand. Europes biggest Macro Hedge Fund is counting on a Federal Reserve Interest Rate increased to set off the type of market turbulence that presents treating opportunity. Trading opportunity. Anna youre giving us an update on the market. Reporter the reaction is all about super mario disappointing at the ecb meeting yesterday. We saw european stocks drop the most since august. U. S. Stocks dropped the most in two months. Asian stocks are continuing that global rout today. Wraps today. Done down is 9 10 of a percent. Asiapacific ends next index is down 1 . The shanghai composite is down 1. 7 . Of analystsnumber were expecting that to weaken most notably goldman. It rose more than 3 . The biggest jump since august 20 2009. It is coming off a bit from that down almost 2 10 of a percent, looking at a weaker euro. Also, the focus is very much on the dollar. The dollar index is up 4 10 of a percent of the moment. The ecb back to the u. S. Back to the payroll number we will get it later today. The expectation the traders are pricing for a fed increase. We are seeing a dollar that is stronger. Manus lets check in on the price of oil. Again as we go into the start of trading here in the european market. It will be interesting to see what actually comes out of this opec meeting. Anna they are taking on a ushaped. We have been led up and down and sideways. Need 45 to increase their crude output. Chilcote was at the meeting. Is the discussions continue, the process from the moment the investments are made to win we see their effect on levels of production, will take four to five years for new investors. I unfortunately do not know what the situation in the oil field is currently. Can irans National Oil Company raise production . I think so, but not by a lot. It will take time and a colossal investment. Chilcotets go to ryan indiana in the anna. Vienna. Chilcote we will get a little bit of talk, probably disagreement. We will not get a decrease in the Production Target. Very few people expect that. We will get a real sense of a real sense of the mood, and maybe if you think of opec as a central bank of the oil market, maybe a little bit of Forward Guidance as to where they might be moving. I want to talk about iran. Lukoilrd from the ceo of , that is company that met with the minister of oil yesterday. With these meetings happen, at least the last few years, opec ministers gather to talk about the oil market. The big ministers of the Big Oil Companies come to talk to the Iranian Oil Minister. I am joined by an oil analyst. Thank you for coming. Of lukoil said they are still Offering Service contracts, it is not good enough. I sure hope they come up with something more competitive by february. Do you think the market is anticipating this Iranian Oil Coming sooner than it is going to because there is still haggling. Of course, iran has to make lucrative deals. We are at a time of low oil prices. Oil companies are cutting back. They have to decide which country they go to. They are obviously looking for the most lucrative deal. Might not necessarily be lucrative right now. That issueot have that iraq and other regions have. Iran will have to give a deal. I just spoke with the Iranian Oil Minister yesterday, i asked him to unders respond to this idea from the saudis that they might be willing to cut it other countries outside of the cartel and within, including iran were to as well. Here is what the minister said. We return to the market. Full return to the market after we are ready to discuss about to participate with opec members. Making a new ryan after we make a full return to the market, we would be willing to look at a production ceiling. That is not probably what the saudis had in mind. What should we make of this . On, saudis clearly knew that iranians would likely make a demand. Once we reach the target, that is when they will start cutting. Unrealistic in expecting maybe they are any no countries will not come back for the time being. They would rather keep on with their Market Strategy and let the others battle. we know we will not get a Production Cut today, what about the oil market . If we see an increase in the ceiling that could acceptingy and iran back to moving prices. Ryan thank you so much. I will pass it back to you. Anna Ryan Chilcote lie that the opec meeting. Plenty more from ryan and his guest throughout the day. Manus we have a conversation all about energy. We want to wait and see how the euro falls. We will also discuss mario draghi and the ecb. Manus the druggie selloff goes global. Investorsesident, expecting far worse. Stocks lower. Caroline job stay in the usa as the fed signals of december left off. Will it take to delay a rate hike . Manus holding the line. Some opec nations call for Production Cuts. They hit a brick wall name saudi arabia. The decision in vienna later today. Anna welcome to countdown. Have german factory orders numbers to start at the 7 00 hour. Etting numbers ahead of the estimates, a 1. 2 increase. We have seen some contraction in the prior month where the number was down. This number is better than last month and better than estimate. We will have further analysis through the morning. Manus day two of the equity market selloff. Yesterday we saw equity forces declined by 3 in paris. This morning, what do we got . Euro stocks, down 9 10 of 1 . Dax whichs and the are going to be just coming that little bit lower. Resources dropped by nearly 4 , a drop of over 3 , of the euro rallied by 3 . Bond markets is my number of the 270 billion wiped off. Anna lets get the first word with nejra cehic. Nejra the euro has slipped back against the dollar after its biggest oneday jump since 2009, as investors shift their attention to the u. S. Payrolls report, that may boost the likelihood of the fed rate hike. The single currency surged 3. 1 over the dollar yesterday after the ecbs using plane fell short of traders expectations. Goldman sachs is calling for the euro to plunge but it didnt go to plan, after predicting a dovish surprise from mario draghi with scented tumbling, robin brookss note rethinking his entire euro outlook. Crude is set for a weekly loss as opec ministers prepare to meet in vienna. Bloomberg sources say saudi arabia held its line at informal discussions yesterday, insisting nonmember producers would have to join any output costs. Russias credit rate was raising to stable from negative by movies. By moodys. Ba1,ating now stands at one step below investment grade. That is your first word. For more, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Anna thank you very much. Manus lets get a little bit more, delve deeper into german manufacturing data. Hans, you are standing by in berlin you give us your take on this. What happens in germany has reverberations all around the growth story for europe. Hans there are many factories left in berlin, but even from here you can hear a giant sigh of relief that factory orders are up. And ifimate was for 1. 2 you look at the last three months it has been pretty negative all the way back to july with a 2. 2 . The last two months we have had negative factory orders and negative Industrial Production orders. This looks like we are turning the corner. This is confirming what the gdp numbers we got the final readout 0. 3 growth. Since then we have had mostly positive numbers, unemployment down all the way to 6. 3 . The one bit of negative news, the most recent retail figures we have, down. 4 . Of estimate was for an increase of. 4 . That is one indication that maybe everything is in great here not a lot of consumer confidence. We are in a situation where you have to talk about will the german retailer, the consumer, will they spend a lot . I think you need to come to berlin for a shopping spree. Thanks has been you. Lets check in on the asian markets. Manus lets go over to juliet te saly. How did asia finish the day, with europe picking up a negative skew . Juliete good morning. Passing the baton from you but we also took it from you coming through on thursday into the asian centers. Everyone is hoping for some more super mario magic, but instead we have seen this appointment coming through from the ecbs decision. The shanghai composite just closing up today, and unlike in the last couple sessions, we havent seen a rally coming into the close. Quite a lot of weakness coming through, the market down by 1. 7 on the close. That is going to significantly dampen the weekly gains we have seen, up around 3 on the week. Still some weakness in hong kong with an hour of trade left. Korea, japan, australia, new zealand every market already closed weak. The nikkei is down by over 2 . Hit quite hard. Of the oil price and Energy Sector weighing into the australian market. 1. 5 , althoughby there was some Good Movement coming through in gold. Every centern see, in asia heavily hit today, oil and gas down by 6 10 of 1 . Health care being sold off by 1. 6 . And we were talking about that flight to bonds, or the flight out of bonds we have seen yields jump in australia quite significantly, up by almost 3 on to 10 year yield. , but has little changed certainly we are seeing that risk of appetite. The Malaysian Ringgit is starting to strengthen a little ahead of the opec meeting. Also fell dollar back after a pretty good day yesterday. It is down about 4 10 of 1 . Certainly not a great day to round out the trading session and the week here in asia. Anna dont worry, its the weekend sin. Juliette saly. Lets get our top story draghi disappoints. Ecb measures failed to impress investors. To focus now shifts to the u. S. Jobs data out at 1 30, and investors want to know with the employment number may mean for the Federal Reserve. Heres what janet yellen and mario draghi said over the last 24 hours, as their policies diverge. In comparison with september, 2015 macroeconomic projections, the outlook for hicb inflation has been revised down slightly. Ongoing gains in the labor with my judgment that longterm inflationary expectations remain reasonably well anchored serve to bolster my confidence in the return of inflation to 2 as the disinflation area effect have declined in energy and import prices wane. We are doing more because it works, not because it fails. We want to consolidate something that has been a success. The laying the start of policy normalization has been going too long. We will likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Leavingntral bankers their magic bankers weaving their magic. Joining us, jamie murray. To the wordsen from draghi, he says it is working but its not. Sheve janet yellen, because pointed out that the market accepted something in terms of action which wasnt forthcoming. That was a bit more of an aggressive move from the ecb. He disappointed all around, didnt he . He disappointed, but expectations were really high, so it was quite easy for him to disappoint even though he did a fair amount. He disappointed in two ways he didnt expand the current level of purchasing, which people were hoping for. He also didnt think dovish statements afterwards. He sort of said that this is working and were doing it. He didnt say we will do more if more is required, which i think might have alleviated the concern. Anna should mario draghi and the rest of the ecb has been getting out ahead of this meeting and talking a bit more about limiting the markets expectation . Trying to lean against the expectations . I think they had built up over a couple months so there were plenty of opportunities for him to go in and lean back. I think there is a chance that he has gone in and found more resistance and the governing council than he expected. Obviously, you dont get that in the meeting, but in the press conference that is a possibility. There areously, wellknown reasons why the germans are less keen on qe. They always have been. But we got better than expected factory orders. Is that were the better data was coming from . Will unemployment was at 6. 5 , but if you look at the iso, its 4. 5 , lower than the u. K. And u. S. Yeah, they are similar. Manus when you look at the moves of these equity markets like a 3 move, 3. 5 drop in the dax and cac, and i know london is more skewed to commodities, how do you look at that . Is it that equities are being driven solely by the expectation of more Monetary Policy, and how do you look at that . As an opportunity . Yes. It is the flipside of the currency move. What markets are hoping for his quantitive easing leading to a weaker euro, leading to a boost to equity prices in europe, with the benefits of the currency and quantitive easing pushing up asset prices. If you are disappointed on the level of quantitive easing, then youll have to say that the currency shouldnt be as weak an asset prices wont be as strong. Personally i think this is a shortterm reaction. We still have quantitive easing in europe, and it will put pressure on the euro to remain weak, and it will boost asset prices. But the shortterm reaction is this isnt as much as people wanted, so you get the flip side of the currency boost. Anna the chance of that divide is still very much it does. Anna and that is the guiding factor, not this letter that much qe. Its the fact that they are moving in different directions. Yes. After we haveime, the rate rise in the u. S. , which has to be coming now given what janet yellen has an saying, people will look and say hold on, we have this divergence. I think we will then see euro weakening. Manus is their credibility factor here . Not that i psychoanalyze people, draghi,ng watched mario it was a very stern delivery. It was not the delivery of a man that had giving in mind. It was almost as if he was holding back the whole way through. His his credibility at stake here . I dont think so. I think manus he did say couple weeks ago that we would do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible. Yesterday, did little to endeavor toward that objective. Yeah, it changed nothing. There is less stimulus today than there was last week, on the fundamental principle. Expectations are changing. Core inflation is going to remain very low, and it will be taken slowly, or it will fall slowly. That is the gradual recovery we will see. Anna that we get the right amount of stimulus, given the state of the european economy . Ignoring the important question of expectations, should there be more stimulus are not . Inflation oint on some numbers have been improving. And i think expectation should have been managed. I think that was the bigger mission. You felt going in that the markets will be disappointed because we are expecting so much. Manus the reason i put that back my promise us on november 20 that he will get inflation, to do what we must . That is the rhetoric that is channeling anna anna to help european exporters for a little while . Manus i just tried to help them in along. Remember, we changed quite genetically from where we were two months ago. We were worried about chinese slowdown, q3 was about quarter, germany suffering in terms of exports. You eventually had in the last month or so a bit of a turnaround. Pmi is looking better, numbers out of germany are looking better. We are beginning to think, hold on, the china slowdown isnt as much an issue as it was. That is reverberating through to german manufacturing sales. All, we are perhaps seeing the beginning of a better economic outlook, in which case we didnt need as much qe has we were talking about a month ago. Anna we have the jobs report due out later. We have various bits of analysis, some are declaring it is the most important ever, because this could hinge whether the fed does or doesnt, other saying that it is such a done deal that this is the least important jobs report ever. Its impossible for it to be bad enough to put the fed off. Where do you stand . I agree with the second view. I was thinking this morning how bad would it have to be to change the direction of Interest Rates . I think more or less it doesnt matter. They will still say Interest Rates going up. 100 and 300 . Anna anything within that range . [laughter] manus thank you very much. Thank you to jamie, jonathan. Jonathan will stay with us. Anna up next, to pump or not to come . To pump or not to pump . Anna welcome back. 7 19 in london. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra uber is looking to raise as much as 2. 1 billion in the financing round that would value billion, according to people familiar with the matter. It shows that uber is accelerating its rate to expand globally and branch into new services. The company has tested Package Delivery in some cities and is working on new technology such as self driving cars. Are trying tovers counter its glowing global presence. They will Work Together to offer users traveling overseas seamless access to rides using same applications they use back home. Drinkers are suing to block the ab inbev takeover of sab miller, saying it would force them to pay more for lower quality. They argue that the acquisition would create a monopoly in the beer market, in violation of u. S. Antitrust laws. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Manus thank you very much. Nejra cehic with your latest headlines. A weeklyis heading for decline as the opec ministers gather for the vienna meeting to discuss production policy. At issue is saudi arabia strategy to allow oil output to rise. Ryan chilcote joins us from vienna with a guest ryan . Ryan manus, we are a few hours from the opec meeting and decision, and we are getting ready for it. I am joined by a special guest, the nigerian oil minister. This is our very first opportunity to speak with him since he took up the post. Doctor, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us ahead of the meeting. I want to start by asking you about nigerias production. Obviously, nigeria is a difficult spot right now with all the other Oil Producing countries, the price where it is. Your production has been like wishing. Where do you see it going in 2016 . I dont think it is languishing. Continueojected to over the last three months since i took over. I think we will do that. Forecast, i think we are looking at 2. 5 to 2. 6 million. We hope we are going to develop new policies to deal with these issues, hopefully in croatia there will be Cost Reduction to make it profitable for us to do that. Bureaucracy and speech, again, in thed environment in which we are you have to be careful how much you push and production. Ryan thats what i was going to ask about investment into production. Youve got a fiscal issue as well, at the same time. How much will nigeria invest into increasing production . There are all kinds of investment models, surplus cash is not one of them. There are lots of funding opportunities, whenever you back that up. This is going to look at a cash contribution, a lot more investment. We have been slated and what we need to do is do it quickly. Ryan you have a bill in the works that will regulate the industry in nigeria. Where is that right now . It is being retooled again, in the sixth assembly. It is halfway down. My belief is that we need to have a lot more engagement, and im not entirely sure of the way in which you can pass. We need to get the fiscal issues some attention, and there were soft tissues first. We need to look at the fiscal issues in the context my projection is that we will probably have some type of oil comfortable. Ryan can you clarify where your job begins and the president s ends . When he became president he said he would personally oversee the oil industry. How do you split up the work . There hasnt been much of a difference. Whatever the president calls himself, he will oversee every ministry. What i think he brought to the table is more seriousness and credibility. It gives to the perception, and given the industry, it helps. They feel there are limits to what yoaan oil minister can do. Hed day,of the day gives a very free hand for me to do my work. Obviously there are major policy issues, as there should be. A really hasnt made much of a difference. Ryan i heard the suggested yesterday that the saudis would be prepared to cut if other countries both inside and outside of opec were willing to join in. Not at this meeting, but down the road perhaps 2016. Would nigeria be prepared to participate in a cut . Well, its a tough question. I want to be careful of what i say in terms of what deliberation will be. All i know is that there are different platforms and people are pushing different agendas but everyone has a common purpose of finding a solution to the sagging price of oil. I want to keep my bullets dry first. I want to play any to reair the role and supposed to i want to play the intermediary role and supposed to play. Ryan without asking you for your personal opinion, then, one of the things that is being discussed at this meeting is the efficacy, i guess, of the strategy that opec has embarked on, or at least analysts say opec has embarked on, whereby the goal seems to be to allow production to rise, or at least not to cut production, to force highcost producers that the cost will come back. Give us a sense of the discussions within opec, because you had this meeting yesterday. People are really talking about this inside your organization. There is a lot of energy in reviewing policies. Let me draw your attention to oil producers. On opec lot of focuss sometimes in trying to move strategy and move a global nothing really can happen that could be affecting. If you just keep cutting prices, it is 5 in and you take that often flood the market. At some point, there will be a Global Policy can we produce oil comfortably at a certain amount . It is clear that in a low price environment, you are not going to have a lot of investment. I think there is a natural attrition solution. Ryan thank you very much for your time. Opec,ds the presidency of and joins us for a rare interview ahead of the meeting. Anna brian, thank you. , we will be back in paris. Up next, we will be back in paris. Anna welcome back. Less than half an hour to go until the start of the last trading day of the week. As you can see, we are expecting something negative at the start of trading. That is a live shot of london, things just waking up. We are expecting something negative at the start of trade, but expectations of come back, or improved over the last half hour. The expectation is that the euro stocks will be down, the ftse down. Thats where the futures suggest they will open up. We brace ourselves for that, and we have been on a roller coaster the last 24 hours. Lets get the first word with nejra cehic. Nejra the euro has slipped back against the dollar after its biggest oneday jump since 2009, as investors shifted their attention to todays u. S. Payrolls report that may encourage the likelihood of the fed rate hike. The ecbs eating plan fell short of some traders expectations. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs call for the euro to plunge and it didnt go to plan. After predicting a dovish surprise from mario draghi would send it tumbling, the chief strategist is rethinking his. Whole strategy russias Credit Rating was raised from negative to stable. The rating now stands at ba1, one step below investment grade. Crude is set for a weekly decline as opec ministers prepare to meet in vienna to decide policy. Sources say that saudi arabia held at in discussions yesterday, insisting big nonmember producers such as russia would have to join any output cuts. For more on the stories and others, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Anna cop21 is in full spring in swing in paris. France he likewise standing by. Francine lacqua is standing by. Francine good morning. Are showing up and we have a lot of mayors and ceos. Matteonow joined by colon. He runs the biggest Security Company by market cap, and one of the three largest in the world. Thank you for joining us. These are exciting times. We have never been so close to some kind of agreement. What do we need to see . Would you rather we spend a couple more days in paris and have something which is legally binding, which puts a price on carbon, or do you need to get something done . At the lasten summit and it started there. Things have to change. This time, that humanity is concerned, the dramatic change. In the last ones, they were carbon is ae consequence for the human being and now everybody agrees. Countries who want to defend plans francine but does it need to be legally binding . That will be ideal. If it is going to the putting a lot of money on the table, certain countries will modify their policy and it has to be binding. Me, i will be optimistic the consensus will have to change, and i think that is very important. [indiscernible] i think that is something on the table. Francine that 2 target the maximum, or do we have a price on carbon will you be disappointed . He wanted to be viable or real . Price isk that carbon the best manner to reduce emissions. That is clear. This carbon price will have to meet a global market, and how that will be and how much it will be and what they will do with [indiscernible] have beendiscussion i having after this interview i will sit down [indiscernible] optimistic, because the world is already aware. The second thing that we have to stop that is another thing. So how can that be legally binding i think it should [indiscernible] if somebody is ready to put money on the table they have the right to do something. Francine is it more or less difficult to do it when the price of oil is at this level . We have opec meeting in vienna today do you have a forecast for the price of oil . I know it is very difficult, but does it impact sustainability . I think something which is a contradiction carbon prices are contradiction. [indiscernible] that is something so i think these things [indiscernible] question, we have to strange the strategy and [indiscernible] i am not seeing any extra things francine what is your take on the spanish economy . You have a very hard time with the chinese bailout, and now we are seeing reforms coming through. It doesnt only have to do with lower oil prices. Do you remember the time when you were asking me for the [indiscernible] the Prime Minister already has more information. [indiscernible] our industry is already very competitive. We have already been producing [indiscernible] there have been quite a lot of reforms for the government in areas like the financial system, the labor system, varying areas. [indiscernible] francine were you disappointed yesterday when mario draghi didnt support the markets enough . You are telling me that you had a weak euro it doesnt hurt you, it doesnt help you. I think as far as i know, [indiscernible] sharingery much [indiscernible] my feeling is that the market [indiscernible] know [indiscernible] right . What is that but is that right . Markets may want to please a little too much. We have to set off the hiking Interest Rates, one of the most important ceos in europe. How do you see the dynamic between markets around the world . Globally it will have to be done by [indiscernible] francine you will have a lot more exposure in the u. S. Then you did there. Again, how do you see the economy in the u. S. . When we have a fed rate hike is that mean it will impact the bottom line . I think that is already done quite a lot [indiscernible] i am optimistic about the American Economy and how it will perform in europe, and i hope in two weeks time we will be [indiscernible] its going to be one of the big ones [indiscernible] is going to be one of the largest listed. The fact that we have the largest [indiscernible] think [indiscernible] we are closing the [indiscernible] francine after this deal, what comes next . Do you want more m a . Is there anything else . [indiscernible] i think for the time being we will be very much working [indiscernible] when you are so split in the united states, with every ounce of renewables [indiscernible] always we are open to look [indiscernible] francine you have a very busy 12 months what is one thing you are worried about more . Is that this m a integration, or is it [indiscernible] [laughter] francine thank you so much for joining us. It was great to have you on the program. Im going to send it back to you in the studio. Anna thanks very much. Francine lacqua in paris. Plenty more from her she will be speaking to the chairman and ceo, later this morning at 11 15. Jonathan is still with us. Listening to that conversation, they are saying that Carbon Targets need to be legally binding. Does that make a difference your industry . That is something that has to make a difference. Personal, a lot of our clients are concerned about carbon reduction, and we have discussions with clients saying should we be investing in Oil Companies, in coal . Should be be investing and companies that use heavy amounts of electricity, or the airlines . It is a big discussion we are having with the number of clients, who have ethical concerns. Yes, it is an issue. A lot of them have come down on the view that they dont like coal. That is the biggest culprit. Anna and oil . Member, the companies are looking at perhaps we are looking for the ones with focus on renewables. We have a range of clients looking at different issues. Anna that is something the Oil Companies have been trying to brand themselves gas companies. And gas has the best of the possible fuels in terms of carbon emissions. Anna when clients talk to about this, is it because they care about carbon, they care about the environment . Or is it because investors people who invest with them are putting pressure on them, and the pr could look bad if they are found to be behind the curve . What is driving this concern about Sustainable Investment . Both of the two you just mentioned, and real concerns, and where their charities are looking at them and thinking is this going to look bad . But also you have something, our fossil fuels the way of the future or will they be left in the ground if we get strict carbon emission targets . You have some people concerned from an investment perspective. Less concerned from investment perspective i think the market could look at that, and there are ethical concerns. Anna jonathan, thank you very much. He stays with us for another conversation. Coming up, we are looking at which stocks to watch as the market opens. We will focus on berkeley group. Stay with us. Anna welcome back. You are looking at live pictures coming to us from paris. This is the cafe where five people were killed in the paris attacks on november 13. The cafe is reopening today following those attacks. The city is trying to get back to life as normal, little by little. Those like pictures come to us from paris. 7 48 in london, a 48 in paris. Lets get the bloomberg misses . Nejra uber is looking to raise as much as 2. 1 billion in the finance and round that would value it at 62. 5 billion according to people familiar with the matter. It shows that uber is accelerating its rate to expand globally and branch into new services. For rivals are teaming up to counter the right sharing, to make thoseer traveling overseas have seamless access to rides. Your drinkers are moving to suit e the takeover of sab miller, saying it would or slow to know quality. They argue that it would create a monopoly in the beer market in violation of u. S. Antitrust laws. Anna think you very much. You are also watching the market is morning what should we keep an eye on . Are beingstocks called high at the open, starting with berkeley group, the u. K. Property developer who was the best performer on the ftse 100. They were up 35 and today we saw firsthalf net income within this but the dividend Beat Estimates and they also said they would enhance dividend return programs. We might see that raise at the open and secondquarter sales were upbeat so we might see that moving higher. They sell advanced medical products. I have to measure the bond market because yesterday that we saw off the back of mario draghi was german 10 year yields surging the most since 2011 while twoyear yields from finland to spain basically jumped from record lows. It is a lot quieter today, the german 10 year yields barely budging and attention is turning to that allimportant u. S. Jobs number coming out later. A weaker euro versus the dollar after it jumped since 2009, dollar index up and traders pricing in a 74 probability of a fed rate rise this month at the moment. That jobs number will play into expectations, too. Anna thanks very much. Lets take up that thread of conversation with jonathan, who is still with us. We are looking ahead to this payrolls number you see it as more important in terms of the pace of the tightening in rates rather than whether the fed moves. Yes. Janet yellens view is that you raise early, and then overall. On the the first raise 17th is factored into markets and i dont think we will see that much reaction. It carries on with divergence in Monetary Policy between europe and the u. S. I think it will be more interesting to see what happens in q1. With q1, we could see good gdp number and good growth. We may have warm weather that boosts it over the winter. Then you get the second rate rise in march next year. I think that is when people start saying is this something that will keep on going, and how do we look at bond markets . This time it is in the price. Anna global pacific currents are in favor of warm weather, im very . That should help the u. S. Economy. If we get a rate rise, even if the pace is slow, doesnt put any strain on certain parts of the economy . Im thinking of highyield companies in the united states. Some 25 of those are made up on the Energy Sector. They are struggling because of the weakness in the energy prices, and if they have to start paying more money for the money they borrowed, this record to put any pressure on them . There is already some distress in a highyield market. You mentioned energy companies. Youve got Something Like one quarter of highyielding at 10 . It is a market that has started to show problems, primarily energy but not just energy. At the moment it will make much difference, because this isnt going to lead it wont lead to big raising costs for highyield companies. Its not yet going to affect the rate at which people borrow. Anna this year has been dominated, as have many years since the financial crisis, by Monetary Policyy. This is the big overarching narrative that has been playing out around the world, whether those policies have diverged. They have been very present. No change in 2016, or do you think there is change . The disappointment is that there has been no earnings spread. It is been the only thing we have had to talk about Monetary Policy. You havent had the Earnings Growth boosting the market in the way people wanted. What would be great is if in 2016 we see Earnings Growth come back. I think particularly europe anna are we hoping for that to happen, that improving data in europe from the ecb . Does that help the earnings . We are seeing the pickup in europe. Good pmis out recently, there is this pick up, and with a weaker euro, we should see Earnings Growth come back. Anna thank you very much for spending the last hour with us. Cio at stanhope capital. Is the move with jon ferro here now he will tell us what hes watching. Jonathan good morning. There was ecb yesterday meeting or something, the euro spiking, bonds plunging. Draghi disappointed as the headline in the market. That depends who you are. If you are janet yellen, that door for a rate hike just got a whole lot lighter. We will discuss u. S. Payrolls and jobs data ahead of the market session. We will also be talking about mario draghi, who also speaks in new york later today. Do not miss that conversation. Beyond that, we will talk opec, crude volatility, vienna volatility call it what you will. 45 crude, whatever it might be, producers brace for low prices for longer. Anna it was interesting how janet yellen was asked about the ecb and her excellent it was short, it was concise. I thought i sensed a smile. Thank you very much. Just had to tell you whats going to have been at the start of the European Equity trading day. Futures will be down, but not by yesterdays standards. We are down by around 2 10 of 1 across the European Equity markets. Jonathan good morning and welcome to on the move. I am jonathan ferro, joining you from bloomberg headquarters moments away from the start of european trading. Druggie disappoints. Bonds drop. E and investors await the last u. S. Payroll of 2015. Vienna volatility. The oil market swings as we look ahead. And happy friday to all of you. We are 20 seconds away from the friday morning session. Global stop crash is what we see because a search and super mario disappointed. The cac 40 index were down. They stop 600 was down more than 3 . Lets see how these markets are opening up today. We do not see the same cell up at the moment that we saw yesterday. Dax is still waiting to open. Lets check on some of the stocks we are watching today. It might seem like it is all about mario draghi, but their other things to look at. This was one of the best stocks performing yesterday. It is one of the best stocks performing this year. The top net income was a miss, but the dividend Beat Estimates