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Have had so far this year. It a fairly big down drop. Back to the previous day. Lets show everybody the chart. This is the s p 500. The best rally support this year. That is it there. Over there. Wndraft we had a big selloff, and then we had a little bounce. Anna we have not made up for all of that lost ground. He always has something to say about this. Have a particularly positive takeaway. He would suggest we take flight. There isis no doubt volatility, that indicates that his risk. Not just in the Financial Markets, but in the real economy. Investors should continue to have a postured risk. That can mean Higher Quality investments with high yield. A better investment grade. Perhaps even more duration than you normally would. Bill is unconvinced by this rally. Other than saying, the moment has arrived. That freshto put power to work is here. Anna that contrasted with the hedge fund that said this morning that they see a fair market, rivaling with 1997. Views out there. Guy we have two sets of views. Lets find out what we have seen over the past 24 hours. How did wall street close . U. S. Stocks rally and close with highs. First of all, perhaps a sense of exhaustion on the part of investors that judged the recent downturn in u. S. Shares was overdone, given the outlook for profits. Also, another piece of worse than estimated Economic Data coming in the form of isn services. The measure of the services sector. The largest section of the u. S. Economy is worst than was expected. That is giving more credence to the idea that the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising Interest Rates till next year. That is the best rally we have had all year, and terms of duration. Energy stocks are pacing the game during the fiveday period. Energy is the worst performing group this year. Oil prices have also been gaining some steam. The best performers are in the are microsoft, gaining after reports that it introduced new smartphones. Cisco is also pace and became in technology. Weve had a number of theirgists cutting forecasts for the s p 500. 12 out of the 21 wall st strategists we survey have cut their forecast since august 10 21. 42 at thef years end. That is higher than it is right now. The s p 500 have to rally by another 7. 8 to reach the diminished forecast. That is more than it has in recent years. It has gained an average of 6. 4 in the last quarter since 2009. Guy a good day yesterday for the s p. All good things must come to an end. Anna lets get to shery ahn who is in hong kong. Lets see how the hong kong markets are reacting. Shery they are reacting very positively, as you can see. For theocks are headed best fiveday gain since 2011. The longest winning streak we have seen since april. There are two stories for asian markets. We data from u. S. Markets and number two, markets assessing the impact of that historic free trade deal, the ttp. Stocks are gaining in japan. The nikkei at 1. 4 . It is going for the longest winning streak since august. In australia, the asl hundred closed. In hong kong, currently unchanged. Ce mainland is trying to lose today. Leading with the thought of a possibility that the fed might delay hiking rates. That might help emergingmarket rates. They are up 2. 6 . It is also about the tdp and which companies here in asia can actually benefit the most. Gaining 5. 7 in australia. More in theg morning session. In singapore stock rising five point 7 . They are expected to benefit from the freetrade deal. Movers and asian currency today, gaining andan strengthening 1. 8 . This is the biggest jump we have seen since 2013. Korea is strengthening 6 10 of a percent after five temps of a decline. After five months of a dec line. Back to you. Guy unchanged this morning at a record low of 2 . Lets go to australia. He is in sydney. Commodity prices have come down. The currency baby adding counterweight to that. Does not look like we will see much of a change. There is no sign of a stimulus at this stage. The statement was remarkably similar to the september statement. Main thing issued here is the currency. When the is trailing dollar was remaining high, Oil Commodities were declining. The tightening of monetary conditions was offset. They are a lot more comfortable with that and feel there is more of an equilibrium there. There was no sign of stimulus or no indication of stimulus. The central bank did say the regulation measures to control the Housing Market did show signs of working. Otherwise, it was pretty much as it was. Other element here is, we had a change of government leadership three weeks ago in australia. The central bank had been critical of the need for reform in the country in recent months. Perhaps, malcolms new administration will start to get the reform going. That will also be in aid. Not much change here. The other thing here is the unemployment rate, which is critical, has been reasonably stable. There is not a lot of push for the central bank to move. They seem very content where they are. Guy thank you very much indeed. Today anna , pretty much nothing. Anna the Prime Minister has called the Transpacific Partnership deal the biggest agreement and trade history. Will cover about 40 of world trade. Products i spams from rice to dairy. With open doors to the historically closed Agriculture Market in japan and canada. It raises labor and the environmental standards. The News Conference announcing the agreement was delayed several times, showing the balancing with each country involved. Technical detail still to be filled out. That does not mean the work is done. Lawmakers in u. S. Have 90 days to review the deal and vote on final approval sometime early next year. President obama and top advisers have made clear they have work to do. Not only within their own party, which has historically been skeptical of trade deals, but with also passed supporters of the deal on the other side. It was said earlier that the deal fell for a fully short of his expectations. Traditional white house allies, including progressive activists, already stirred opposition all registered opposition. Trump play donald the biggest potential wildcard in the white house. On thebby members agreement. The megaphone utilized by president ial critics can cause major problems. White house officials believe , which touches industries from auto, machinery, beef, pork, and gary mostly speaks for itself. The president will start a fullscale lobbying effort this weekend. The congressional timeline places the final votes right in the middle of the first president ial primary contest. That is something the white house is keenly aware of as it launches its blitz in the days and weeks ahead. Back to you. Guy lets talk about what we have got coming up. Next, and later this week. Anna the data we are watching today kicks off with the german factory numbers. Guy we saw dissipating data on the pmi. The imf as wwell. Outlook at 3 00 p. M. U. K. Time. What we will see there in terms of global growth. What will the number be there, attached to china . Todaymmit is taking place and brings together leading thinkers from the world of finance and new york, london, and hong kong. Get the details and stream the event live at bloomberg. Com. We will be in conversation with the bloomberg editor in chief. 9 10 a. M. At anna the influx of migrants slowdown in china. After the break, we will look at the challenges facing the German Economy. Anna welcome back. 6 1 five here in london. Here of the stories you need to know. Guy the biggest drop amongst major currencies in australia. A weaker outcome in china. Anna six people accused in london today. It is claimed they worked with the traitor. Is set to last between 12 and 14 weeks. The talks finally ended with an agreement on the Transpacific Partnership. The deal covers 40 of world trade. The range of products is from dairy to drugs. Many in congress have denounced the deal. South korea says it will actively consider joining the dtp. China remains outside of it. Bloomberg informational summit today our first guest is a speaker. Guy we are joined now. Good morning. It is nice to see you. We have a chinese brokerage at this morning. The worst is over for the chinese stocks. Would you agree with that . Absolutely. After the big shock of major corrections, we are at the lowest point of evaluation. I completely agree that the stock market is in the worst is over the worstcase scenario. However, we are waiting to see how fast we can get into recovery. About buying all up the stock market as it recovers for you . Or is this about picking individual sectors you think will do well now . Liu we have been learning so much. We need to be more selective. More selective about which names we should buy. I am just now going to be picking up and accumulating some of them. Alternative energy, health care, and internet related products are among those i am picking. Guy how much money will i make if i put my chips into that area, what is the rate of return i am looking at off of these lows . Yang liu you should tell me how mom you can stay with china. Patients always pays off. Nce always pays off. We were there before. Then we got half, and then we went back. I am expecting, if you can stay with china at this point, for three years, you are going to be a winner. Anna you have been investing in the Chinese Market basically 1993, its inception. With did you make of the roles the Chinese Government has played at the regulators have played in the most recent crisis . They are everything. They are everywhere. This is the nature of the stock market. Were still in the early stage. Still being educated about the market by the government. Therefore, we need to catch up. What is it want t achieve for his nationo . We have done so much to help the nation to be stronger and bigger. There were setbacks. Therefore, i totally support the government so far. And what they have done to the stock market. We make mistakes, we are human beings. We are just now watching them. Guy what policy moves can we expect what can we beijing to deliver . In terms of its management and the market and its management and the economy, and the currency . What policy moves are you looking for . Basically, you look at the major themes. One, the deepening reforms. The enterprise reforms. It is essential to help the government show how Good Companies can drive the economy, going up, and not dragging down. The flowo, to enhance between china and the outside world. They are working very hard to a capitalarket system, a capital flow. Kong connection is coming. Currency is the big issue. We are determining the value of the company of the countrys stock market. The currency is not a major driver. Cyclicalyears, thetment for china ill moremarket wl or less, build up a safety net. It can be channeled into the stock market. Therell be a very comprehensive pension system. Reforms and health care, in terms of energy, and taxation, those will come to us in the next three years. The country has been creating so many in certainties about the government. Guy that was a pretty comprehensive list of things we should look out for. Yang liu. R time, inhave a financial summit london and one in new york. Is offeringer 1500 euros in italy. Lets get to berlin and Hobbes Nichols for the latest. Good news this morning . None of that sounded good. Hans if you look at the options they are considering for the technical picks for the cars they need to submit by tomorrow. There is one option that will cost 20 euros. The other ranges on the other spectrume will cost 10,000 euros. That is what they have on the technical side. On the legal side, you mentioned the West Virginia lost it. They faced some 45 state investigations in the state. As well as 229 classaction lawsuits. What is interesting about West Virginia is they only have about 2000 vehicles in the state. This could be the state that is the first to file suit. We have seen a Little Movement on the sales side of things. We have numbers out of japan and their vw sales are down 9 . Sales areorea, vw down 7. 8 . In italy, where they are offering this row graham, they have the fiat panda, it is 500. There, you have seen sales dropped 1 . Fiat chrysler sales and italy are up more than 20 . Fiat is clearly trying to profit off of the vw woes. Guy lets see who else can profit off of the vw woes, and german woes. Made ins this mean for germany. Germany has prided itself on great engineering. Where does this leave it . Hans if you look at the export side of things, 22 of germanys exports are auto sector related. Campl has been trying to this down. Clearly, germany is affected. When we saw pmi numbers come in yesterday and disappoint a bit. E today, in about 40 minutes time, we will get august factory orders. It will give us a sense if there is a slowdown in germany. Anna thank you very much. Hans nichols joins us there with the latest on vw. Ntdown. Ing up on cou one of bloombergs most influential speaks to us. More from that interview when we come back after this break. Co eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. It is 6 30 in london. Here are the stories you need to know. Anna the bank of australia. The record low of 2 today. The aussie dollar recorded the biggest drop. Cushioning the impact of commodity. Guy the trial of the people accused of trying to fix libel. They try to conspire with ubs trader who was jailed for 14 years. The cost chileans of dollars. And cost trillions of dollars. Five years of talks have finally ended on the transpacific on a range of products from drugs. Jobs. S say it threatens both sides of congress have denounced the deal. South korea says it will consider joining the tpp but China Remains outside. Guy Bloomberg Markets most influential summit is on the way. It is coinciding with the publication of Bloomberg Markets 50 most influential and african billionaires. One individual who made the list we asked the tycoon for his take on the china slowdown. Needs to beown taken in context. Ago, they were doing 11 . Today they are doing 7 , or maybe less than that. 10 of the economy is less than 6 of the economy, because of the growth. It was a much bigger economy. There is still good growth happening in china. Badnt think things are as shows us. Dline guy bloombergs most influential taking place today. Already underway. The event from the world of finance happening in new york, london. We have started it in hong kong. Here are the details at bl oomberglive. Com. Joining we will be joining anshu jain. He will bening talking to john micklewait. The former finance minister of italy coming up. Reading whichel starts in london today. Behind trillions of dollars of financial deals. Here with theis details. Caroline good morning. Seven years after the investigating started, we are involving we are evolving from bankers to brokers. Six are going to be walking into the court. Accused of rigging the libor. Linked to this the japanese yen. They have claimed to conspired with the one head who has already rolled. Tom hays, ex trader. August foricted in 14 years in prison. He manipulated libel. Brokers,omes to the they are the middlemen. They are not manipulating the rates that the banks were giving every day at 11 00. What thers were giving libel was from their point of view. These were middlemen lining up, accused of deliberately disregarding the basis for submission of those rates. Basically helping favorable submissions come through to the rate setting banks. They are expected to have conspired with tom hays. Accused . Which brokerages are they coming from . Cap are all come from i they are accused of conspiracy to defraud, nebula the libel rate. They could face decades in jail or have pleaded not guilty. Lets have a look at what the case is going to involve. It is so drawn out. He met his fate use ago. The trial could last three months. We are releasing evidence come forward. We are going to have 12 jurors getting into the nittygritty of these testimonies that they are going to see. The scale of this continues to escalate. This is libor related to the yen rate. Ishave still yet to see what happening in terms of investigation when it comes to the euro Interest Rate benchmark. That is the next wave of charges. Of not justr these six alone. Clearly weve already got 9 billion worth. Market, i it at rp cap. How swiftly we will see all of this escalate. The libor scandal never far away. Back to you. Anna caroline, thank you very much. Guy more positive markets. Weve got the strongest rally on the s p 500 over the last few days. We have seen a big selloff. Guest thinks the worst could be behind us. Chris wyllie joins us. He is with us for the next hour. Good times roll. It is up from here. Chris i am not sure i quite said that. It is been interesting, the price over the last week. We had the lows made at the end of august. We had another go at the end of september. You get an echo from the initial fall. It reminds me of the 11 when we had an august fall. It wasnt until early october when we rallied. This is reminiscent of that. It does not mean that history does not repeat. Weekwas interesting last is on friday, we had the payroll anyonech was weaker than expected. The market sold off on that news. Trade got in line with a story that bad news is bad news. We are just worried about growth. Then we rallied into the close and asia cup that pattern and asia picked up that pattern. Maybe the bad news is in the price. We had bad news and didnt knock the market off the axis. They got into very oversold territory. The biggest buy signal since 2011. Anna if we look back to 2011, august. The s p has doubled since then. Certainly to its highs in august. It hasthe problem is doubled. It is not as good value as it was then. There are valuation challenges in the u. S. , where things get complicated is when you travel away from the u. S. And you look at the other areas. Europe, there is much less of a valuation problem. Go to the emerging markets, you can start to construct the case of any good valuation. Some of the best value opportunities that we have seen for number of years. Guy what rate of growth are you basing this on. There is structural concern that it is not going to beat what we all thought it was. Maybe that is why the numbers are starting to soften and the data is getting worse. Chris this is the problem. Nobody knows what the growth rate to be basing their substance on. It is safe to assume their low, i would subscribe to whatever you want to call it. Oh. New normal. This is why the market is so schizophrenic. We are still figuring out what exactly that means. What raising a market should be on. Growth, but low growth. High margins here it high margins. Low Interest Rates should justify higher pes. Deflation, there is that specter of deflationary spiral which would crushing which would crush the evaluation. Thats why we have schizophrenic moments. We do not have no roadmap for this. If we relax a bit and sent back, it is growth, but it is lower growth. Low Interest Rates relatively stable. If margins are defensible, markets can main stronger for longer, then we still got mileage in this cycle. To rally. Opportunity anna does that mean you have a stomach for emerging markets . We have had conflicting advice on that front. Forces have fun there is divergent views on emerging markets and where they go from here. Chris lets focus on the facts. Inare in a bear market emerging markets that started four years ago. More recently, as well as Global Markets have stopped rising, absolute bear markets. We know we are quite far advanced in this stock market cycle of disfavor for emerging markets. Guy is going to be a 2011 opportunity . Is it going to be a 2011 opportunity . I was last year, we had this conversation and i said we were we were within 20 . And you said that makes you sound bearish. 20 when you look at the volatility of emerging markets is not that big. I dont know if it means if theres going to be another 20 . If there is another 20 downside, you have to shut your eyes and buy them. It will set up a buying opportunity and dont forget, it is not about stock markets, it is about currency as well. Currency is down and stock markets are down. One of the best factor is the signal to buy, is when they have currency. You chris wyllie, thank very much. Guy up next, the message from banks to investors. We would be covering the top stories on bloomberg. Com when we return. Recovering the top stories on bloomberg. Com when we return. Anna welcome back. 6 45 in london. Here are the stories you need to know. Guy the bank of australia have left Interest Rates unchanged. The aussie dollar recorded the biggest drop among major currencies last quarter. That could be the impact of lower Commodity Prices and a weaker outlook in china. Six people accused of trying to fix the libor rates start today just started today. The benchmark Interest Rates is behind trillions of dollars of deals here deals. Guy five years of talks have ended with an agreement on the Transpacific Partnership. The lowest tariff on a range of products. Both sides of congress have denounced the deal. South korea says it will consider joining the tpp. Remember China Remains of the outside. Anna glencore shares have rallied for the fourth day. Copper is making gains. Goldman is warning that it may be years before prices recover from the worst is slump from the worst slump in years. Give us your thoughts on glencore. You focus on where fundamentals and where the prices of metals are going. You must have been swept along but swept along by a roller coaster ride. Hamilton Chris Hamilton colin it is interesting, the Copper Market is one of the better ones. Glencore have lost a lot of support. Hings like thermal core wevemany majors still got too much capacity in these Commodity Markets. Emand it is to be supplied being cut back. Guy Franklin Templeton is out overnight, betting on a overnight betting on a multidecade opportunity. The two are fairly well correlated. Interesting,s since the crisis, much as been invested by emerging markets as a whole. We are going to see a problem therefore investment. Lower Commodity Prices should help the consumer. We should be seeing that benefit come through. Lower prices. We need to see currency set for us. That is been the big problem. Of course, for Commodity Markets, certain emerging market ucers have seen [indiscernible] actually quite strong and domestic. [indiscernible] enough to give investors confidence. Anna we have this conversation about the fact that it is not going to adjust, the reason being these minds need to be kept open to pay off debt. So, do you hold up hopes that we are going to see a cut . Glencore is cutting the Copper Market so it is one of the few that we have seen. All reasons, whether it is environmental, social, you name it. Producers are rarely likely to take commodity out. What you can get is Financial Markets forcing that through. Over at that point, Financial Markets are getting too nervous. When it comes to refinancing, that is when the pressure is going to come. Guy chris, are you listening to this . We have a few issues to resolve in the Commodity Markets . How does this fit into your i was sittingis 18 months ago with a specialist, the narrative was the same. I was being told that to 16 was the year. Thats the year when supply and demand would begin to tilt back. A more disciplined management teams coming in. We are still not there. Been demandve forecast for a long time. That is been the challenge with growth. We have not seen that growth come through. Dontou dont when you think demand is going to come through [indiscernible] to put in context, for Metal Commodities we would expect our longrun prices to be. It is interesting, in the shortterm, china is starting to look after itself. Were seeing investment going higher. I would be surprised to see chinese commodities on the uptick. This is a shortterm solution. Anna thank you for joining us. The u. K. Conservative Party Conference continues today with David Cameron speaking on the countries relationship with the euro. U. K. Treasury minister spoke to bloomberg. Is there willlity be some conservative on both sides of the argument some conservatives on both sides of the argument. We have a proper debate that is carried out in a sensible, mature, nature goodnatured way. Anna bloomberg. Com has more on the potential for a brexit. Banks are waking up that this is a risk and advising their clients. Tim coulter joins us. We have seen this coming through gradually for a number of banks, increasingly audible warnings about waking up to the possibility of brexit. Tim there responding to the request of their clients and saying how big is the risk . We saw a poll they came out that said 40 supported leaving. 38 said lets stay in. First time in about a year we have seen them go that way. Clearly it is becoming an issue. Anna we saw an imf poll that said the opposite. There are polls on both sides. Pimco it goes to show you how good the polls are. When you go to berlin or paris, and you talk about the subject, there is this nervousness. Thathave an understanding you start unraveling this thing that you thought were that you dont what that you thought was a onedimensional trade interest start putting all these things on the table. Understanding of what the full reach of the story could be . Tim not entirely. That winter is starting to emerge. The big riffs are to the financial stocks, commercial real estate stocks and closer to the pound. That is where people are focusing. Brexit, there was a this would be another pandoras box. Tim other countries are saying we could do the same thing. Anna is this something that is on your radar, chris . There was a great deal of conversation about if we do not hear the government speaking in favor of staying in, at the moment they seem to be playing the card close to the chest, could this be an accidental drift toward brexit . The noise from the other camp is getting very loud. Chris it is on the radar. It is a concern among our clients. It is not one i can answer. It is a little way off. We dont know what the variables are. My starting point has shifted. I thought for a long time brits being what they are, pretty pragmatic, they will think a lot over it. Will stay with the states quote. I am not so sure about that right now. Or are more dimensions to this debate. Whole immigration issue is a wildcard. The risks are rising. We are going to have to get used to it. That is why we have referendums. We are going to have to think about what it does mean if we do leave. Tim the longer we wait for the election, the risk becomes that it becomes a vote on many years of touring role. Y rule. Or we understand the impact here in the economy. The other problem is it is one of those things you are voting on something but you dont know the implications. I. E. , you dont know what the deal would look like. Anna a vacuum could emerge. Tim doesnt that isnt that always the case . We dont know what the future is going to hold. When we were voting on scotland, bedo not know that oil would 50 a year later. The some talking about leadership of Jeremy Corbyn and taking it to that. That. Taking it to chris wyllie stays with us for little bit on the program. Guy the latest on the asian markets, the global stock rally continues. The big rally over the last day. The biggest rally on the s p so far this year. When we come back, we will show you the fair value on what european equities will open. Countdown continues after the break. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Anna asian stocks rise following the longest rally so far this year. Guy the reserve bank of australia leaves Interest Rates unchanged. Anna london libor trial. Six appear before the court, accused of helping to manipulate libor. Guy welcome to countdown. I am guy johnson. Anna welcome to the second hour of countdown. Coming off the board just a little bit. The asian session, a positive session around equities. The factory numbers are out. They are bad, arent they guy caroline they are horrendous. Being downgraded. We are seeing for august a decline in factory orders of 1. 8 . The market has been expecting growth. Instead we get a decline of 1. 8 . Indeed, the previous month of july has been downgraded from a 2. 2 . O a decline of i would to focus in on what the Market Reaction is. The euro is not moving in comparison to the dollar. Clearly the market not too worried. What was concerning about julys was a drop in foreign orders. This is the global slowdown wreaking havoc on what is the industrial powerhouse of germany. Very disappointing numbers coming out of factory orders. A decline of 1. 8 . Year on year, you are eking out less than 2 growth. Affectssee how that some of the german key stocks. Concerns about germanys powerhouse amid the vw scandal. This time last month, with got the numbers coming out in terms of easyjet. This time, september factor, 92. 1 . Eking higher. We are seeing september passengers, six point 6 million again. Stronger than this time last year. Their fullyear pretax guidance is still at 700 million pounds. No upgrade quite yet. Anna on the subject of german numbers, that was for august. Factor in the effects of the vw scandal. Guy probably more china than vw. Maybe the vw story as well. is carried on. Is it going to carry on for much longer echo bill gross not that keen on what we are seeing right now. Bill there is no doubt there is volatility that indicates there is risk in the real economy. In my way of thinking, investors should continue to have a risk of postured. It could mean larger amounts of cash. It could mean Higher Quality investments of yield. In terms of the bond market, more treasuries. Perhaps more duration than you normally would. Guy we areg expecting another down leg if youre expecting growth. Anna views on emerging markets. We have been talking about the tipton comment about betting on a multidecade emerging market opportunity. Talking about a bear market for e. M. Where does that leave us for the stealth of European Equity trading . May the bad german number be reflected in the dax this morning. We have the fair value. London core about. 2 . Paris flat as a pancake. Germany just flat. Slightly positive at the moment. Youre not seeing very much action on the upside. Are a little bit more negative. 25 in terms of what we are expecting. We. Markets look like when get going later on. What are the asian stories. We have the rba in the mix. Shery ahn is standing by. Shery asian stocks are headed for their biggest gain since 2011. That is a fiveday game. We are talking about the longest winning streak since april. We are seeing lots of gains. It reversed earlier gains that we saw today. Now. 3 . Retrieving from three days of gains that we saw in the past three days. Closed. China still the Central Bank Left its key rate unchanged at a record low of 2 . The nikkei, we are seeing gains of 1 . Basically what is rising markets fory, the undermined case that red hot desk for that rate hike this year. As well is that deal of tpp. Jakarta rising on indications that the fed will not hike this year. The jakarta deposit is headed for its biggest gain in months. Were seeing a series we are seeing fisheries game today. The longest rally since august. We are seeing other stocks in japan rising. They will benefit from this tpp deal. Wholesalers rising 9 today. Mitsubishi only up. 7 . This is building on yesterdays gain of 5 . Haveve you by we kewpie up 4 this morning advancing 15 . Guy shery ahn, thank you very much. Anna australians Central Bank Left rates unchanged at the record low level of 2 . Lets it over to our economy reporter who joins us from sydney. Michael, Commodity Prices are falling. The rba shows no sign of adding stimulus. We have seen the currency move. What is going on . Take us behind the scenes. Michael it is a content rba today. They barely change the statement from september. Thing is the currency. In the third quarter, that is desk that has fallen 9 . That is relaxed the rbas view on the economy. When the currency was remaining high, they were strong in their language that it needs to fall. That it is impeding the transition of the economy. They are trading above . 70. When they said when the dollar was higher, they were cutting Interest Rates to offset some of that dollar impact. Now that weve got the dollar down, they are much calmer. They mentioned the opening in china. It was language that was used in september. They are fairly content. The other issue is Central Banks are fairly critical of the government pushing ahead with muchneeded reform in the economy, to allow the economy to transition. There is a new Prime Minister and they are more hopeful. Maybe someone who can drive those reforms through. Indication that more stimulus is coming. Content, central bank. Anna a copy and paste exercise. Michael heath joining us from australia. We will continue to watch currencies move. We saw a bit of a pop and the Australian Dollar. Guy is the ecb content . We have seen disappointing data emerging from the German Economy. Chris wyllie is still with us. Is basing what it is doing on the fact that germany is providing some traction or europe. If we see that fading, what is the policy responsible for asset pricing, you think guy you think jac . Muskoka dont know how there is to increase the magnitude of this. It was a hard sell in the first place. Guy maybe the germans will be more willing. There is that promise. We know the direction of travel, in terms of the ecb. , itng kicked the door down is easier to go further in that direction. See. Ll be interesting to this is information for us to digest. We had a disappointing jobs number, but the market took it in stride and continue to rally. It will be interesting to see if we get the same response today to this number. Anna everybody starts to think about what the fed is going to do. In the case of with in the case of this data, it is bad news. People think the ecb is likely to step in again . So into thisot explanation. Deferring a rate rise has that much urgency. It is more centered. To negative,ten all of the selling pressure wouldve dissipated. That has further to travel. What is lacking is terms of fundamentals. We look at lots of things all the times. Up until recently, we havent seen anything significantly worse. Ift the fed is saying is things stay the same, we can raise rates. Staying the same is good enough. It will be nice to see a little bit of a positive, to delete coming out at the end for asia to show their relentless drumbeat of disappointment is coming to an end. That is the thing you need to get a powerful yearend rally for markets. We need a single we need a signal from the fundamentals. Guy one of those stories for Asset Managers continuing throughout the year. German manufacturing noneurozone countries down month on month. That was a bad july number as well. 14. 5 ne countries up by in the last three months. Is germany a proxy for europe . , shouldan asset manager i ignore the german data . Chris germans largest exporter has had a great deal of sensitivity for global demand. Emerging markets in particular. Demand of the eurozone is improving. Where in and up cycle. When you look at the economic surprise, it is continuing to rise. It has been remarkably robust. The economy continues to be expectations. Expectations rise to meet the outcome. It is still a surprising on the outside. There is a dichotomy. Maybe that is why we have not had a more vigorous response. Anna chris, thank you very much. Guy stay with bloomberg. Of most influential summit 2015 is taking place today. B details at loomberglive. Com anna anshu jain will be in conversation with john mikel klwait. John michl coming up next, german back in the orders german factory orders we will continue that conversation. This time well get to berlin. That is coming up after the break. Anna welcome back. Youre watching countdown. Here are the stories we need to know. Guy the reserve bank of australia left its rates unchanged. The aussie dollar recorded the biggest drop, pushing the impact of lower Commodity Prices to weaker outlook in china. Six people accused of trying to fix the libor rate tom hays who was jailed for 14 years in august. It is behind trillions of dollars of financial deals. The trial is inspected to last between 14 to 16 weeks. Covers 40 of the day 40 of the worlds trade. Both sides of congress have denounced the deal. South korea says it will consider joining the dpp. China remains on the outside. Anna back to europe. Fell. Factory orders yesterday we saw a drop in that pmi number from germany. What are the economic challenges facing europes largest economy. Lets go to berlin. What does it mean for this killer number . Tell us about the German Economy . Hans you look at the summer in germany, there have been three negative events. First part of the summer, we had greece. A lot of times the numbers look like it was shrugging it off. We do not see much of a show in the gdp number. In august, we had china. Surveys, they shrugged off china as well. Todays number which are august factory numbers as well as the pmi numbers, the first time we have seen this sort of negative headline seeped through into the data. That accounts for greece and china. We dont know how volkswagen is going to affect the German Economy. So far it has been a resilient German Economy. Yes, the number is disappointing. The number came in much lower than expected. They had to revise downward those july numbers. If we think factory orders of the most important things to watch, things dont look great. There is a whole lot of other data out there. Most are lagging. We still have not priced in the effects of the volkswagen scandal on the German Economy. Guys . Vw diesels, theyre not hanging around are they . Hans that is the interesting thing we have seen with these losses. 229 classaction lawsuits. What a five state investigations. Now it is West Virginia who is investigating. Say West Virginia with volkswagen always want to transpose my fees and ws. The interesting things we have seen is their sales are to be a hit in asia. We saw japan numbers. Volkswagen fail thats folks like an fell about when we look at what is happening in italy, italy, their sales dropped. 20 we sawe the rise 20 . 500 for theg. Iat panda another 1500 for the jeep. There has been a long history between the and a volkswagen. Martin winterkorn does not get along that well. I got my fees end of these correct. Guys . Hans nichols joining us in berlin. Economy,on the german we are joined by fed cup krumbmuller where joined by famke krumbmuller. How much money they might have to pay out. It is than five years since that oilwell disaster. Have as long a tale . Famke is very low could. It will be difficult to estimate how much more will come over the next few years. The key question that will be raised is will the company run into financial problems . Will the german state actually intervene . The speculation at this time that is the main question. Guy you could forgive the germans for feeling obligated right now. Vw, youve got in the mix. We dont know how many migrants are going to show up on germans doorsteps. We dont know what is good to happen with the chinese economy, because they are pretty explosive. There seems to be a lot of rumsfeld moments for germany to deal with. How is germany dealing with that . Think Angela Merkel is facing a challenge. People are saying this might be the most challenging moment of her chancellorship. She is getting a lot of criticism for what she is doing on migration. This is only the beginning of the story. People have only just arrived. No problems yet with integration. There might be tough times to come if she doesnt manage to integrate the migrants well. If the German Economy starts to underperform, then she will be held responsible. Anna we have seen a step change in the way germany conducts Foreign Policy in the last two years . Famke yes we have. 2015 was a turnover in when germanys president and defense minister start to say that germany should live up to its economic power and become more active in Foreign Policy. Germany has always been and still remains relatively reluctant to intervene in foreign conflicts. They base themselves on diplomacy. Now there is a change. The migration crisis forced dealny to rethink how they with crisis. Guy that is one way it is being affected. Germany being torn up. The vw scandal affecting brand germany. You think about the made in merkel is talking about india and the relationship that exists. Is what is happening with germany right now guy what is the legacy effect . Merkel is open to receiving the migrants, everybody was saying this is great. Legacyuld change germans thats germanys legacy. Then it turned around really fast. Everybodys talking about the volkswagen scandal. It is significant for germanys economy. It is based on this export performance. It is a challenge to its image. That could have a significant effect. And when you look at investments around europe and how much you put into germany. Are you reevaluating that . I imagine you have been. It on we tend to look at a european, excluding the u. K. , asus. U. K. , basis. Markets atemerging that stage, we put some of that back into emerging markets back in august. He mentioned earlier, guy, it had become a crowded chain among investors crowded train among investors. You have to be worried about germany whenever there is concern about global crisis. Germany is tied into that. Whenever markets are concerned about that, i think we are seeing these affects right now. Germany very exposed to the global economy. Merkel is a cautious person politically. Do those two things go handinhand. Handinhand . Give us a short answer on how she deals with those. Breaks big problems down into small problems so she can address them stepbystep and claim they have been solved. German population a good sense of she is pop she is taking care of things. Anna a selfhelp book in there somewhere. Thank you for joining us. Chris wyllie, thank you to you as well. Guy coming up on countdown, we talked greece when we come back. We talk greece when we come back. Guy it is 7 30 in london. These are the stories you need to know. Anna factory orders unexpectedly fell in europes largest economy as it is vulnerable for weaker growth in china. Seasonaljusted for swings and inflation dropped 1. 8 . They had expected to rise. Accused inople are london today, saying they conspired with a former trader. Trial is set for next weekend. Anna five years of talks have finally ended. The agreement on the Transpacific Partnership. It lowers tariffs on a range of products. Critics say it threatens domestic jobs, and in washington alone both sides of congress have denounced it. South korea says it will actively consider joining the ttp but China Remains outside. See lets go to asia now, how the markets are trading as we head into the end of the day. Shery ahn has the details. Shery thanks. Emerging markets in asia are rising today, headed for their biggest fiveday gain in two years. Thats that the fed will keep Interest Rates low for a longer time, spurring demands for assets. Percentining 4 10 of a and we are seeing oil and gas suppliers gaining the most, more than 2 . Barrel, buter leading the gains in emerging markets is jakarta, which rose 2. 6 in the morning session. Of course, they are now headed for their biggest jump in over a upth, and their currency is 1. 7 . This is the biggest jump since 2013. Other emerging market currencies the korean won is up half a percent. It is now strengthening for the second consecutive session. Other asian currencies are seeing the Australian Dollar also gaining for a fifth consecutive session, up half a percent after the Central Bank Left its key rate unchanged at a record low 2 . Ed bets that the central bank will lower rates further this year. Back to you. Guy thanks very much. Shery ahn with the latest on hong kong. Let me give you a quick heads up on how europe will open today. Not exciting would be my first reaction. Let me show you what is going on. Euro stoxx 50 as a pancake. Euro stocks are flat as a pancake. Ftse crawled little bit higher, dax down. Theirutures, fair value giving us a negative open. That will probably change as we head toward the wall street open. But at the moment, europe, nothing to see here. A very flat start of trade. Anna before, we were all worrying about greece. The euro finance ministers have told greece not to expect bailout conditions to be relaxed. It comes as the countrys Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, planned to ask for a loan extension and lower fixed Interest Rates during debt relief talks. Guest,ts go to our next who is sitting next to anna. Anna we were hoping to go to athens but we can do that. Lets instead go to our next guest, the Portfolio Manager at principal. Give us your thoughts on global strategy right now. Guy has been through the features and how there is nothing to see for European Equity markets where do we see it after the fed, the jobs report . Juliet i think there is a growing expectation that we are not going to see rates rise in the u. S. , probably not at all this year, maybe not even next year. The markets appear to be hooked on lower rates and there is a nervousness that whoever does raise rates first, australia or the u. S. , it will have dire consequences. With this sort of growing expectation that rates will stay sort of lower for longer, and perhaps we are even going to see more qe, certainly in europe, weghi retains that option if see a persistence in some of the weaker numbers. Although i think the german numbers we saw today are extent, aore, to some oneoff during august. These are volatile figures. We still need to see the impact of the whole vw scandal, the auto market in germany does employ a great number of people. There are a lot of other companies that are tied in to supplying vw. This could have quite a significant impact. I think what we have seen in the figures that we heard this morning, that is probably more a function of the weaker demand that we saw from china. What i think people forget is that china is a very small part of the export markets. The u. K. The eurozone, i should say probably account for more than twice as many exports, and they have been taking up less of the slack. Certainly most of the slack from weaker chinese demand. Return should of i expect from a equity portfolio if Interest Rates will stay low for longer . Juliet you have got a nice dividend yield in general. 3 average, on the order of you can certainly get a higher yields than that. If markets are going to go up, which we believe that they will on the mediumterm, you were going to see much better rates of return from the equity markets. Anna does that apply the u. S. Equities . Bill gross was just covering his thoughts, saying he sees u. S. Stocks falling another 10 . Juliet i am not talking about u. S. I am talking in particular about europe. I think we have got to the stage where emerging markets are beginning to look interesting. They have definitely sold off quite heavily. Anna she stays with us. Guy before we had a small technical issue. Eurozone finance ministers told greece not to expect bailout conditions to relax. This comes as Alexis Tsipras told parliament he plans to ask for a loan extension and lower fixed Interest Rate during debt relief talks. Restoring Financial Stability , recovery of the economy and return to growth, debt relief, and radical reform of public administration, while fighting corruption and bureaucracy are our direct government objectives. Their implementation is the only safe way out for the country from the guardianship and bailout agreements. Guy lets get the take from athens, marcus is standing by. Is this a new mr. Tsipras we are seeing in front of us . Is the secondit time he has given this key speech that all incoming Prime Ministers make. The contrast with the one he gave before couldnt be clearer. He came out and said that the greek people have given me a mandate to rip up the bailout. This time he has said the greek people have given me amended to implement the bailout. As we saw at the top of the slot, there is a lot of emphasis he stressed growth, Financial Stability, attracting investment, returning to markets in the first half of 2017, then seeing through the bailout agreement. In that way, achieving the debt relief that we have been calling for. This could be any politician from the european mainstream. Yes, with that in mind, how is the rest of europe responding to this new version of Alexis Tsipras . Marcus the reaction generally has been pretty positive. We saw a wave of implementation measures in the new bailout. There have been a lot of positive noises. Toin, it is an huge contrast what we were seeing at the beginning of the year. Some of this yesterday from the eurogroup meeting, but again, a little bit of a reminder. The president of the eurogroup has continued bailout the implementation needs to continue. We have quite a heavy agenda of measures that need to be implemented for the next payment. It is quite a heavy month ahead. Anna marcus, thank you. Up, we will dive into the stocks you want to watch in the European Market open. Sab miller is one we need to watch for. We will look at what those numbers could mean on the m a front. Stay tuned, all of that up after this short break. Anna welcome back. 7 43 in london. Here are the stories you need to know. Guy factory orders unexpectedly fell in august in europes largest economy, vulnerable to weaker growth in china. Ordersadjusted for seasonal swings. Economists had expected a rise of 0. 5 . Of six peoplel accused of trying to fix the libel rate begins in london today. It is claimed that they conspired with the former stockbroker. The benchmark Interest Rate is behind trillions of dollars of financial deals. The trial is set to last between 12 and 14 weeks. , an the end of talks agreement on the Transpacific Partnership. It covers 40 of world trade and covers a range of products. Critics say it threatens domestic jobs. Both sides of congress have denounced the deal. South korea says it will actively consider joining the ttp but China Remains on the outside. Anna minutes away from the start of European Equity trade. Lets get to caroline hyde, who has her eyes on company news. Caroline i just want to show you this particular chart on world indices. 2 trillion has been added over the past four days in terms of increase in training. This is the msci here. Clearly we are on a bit of a lackluster day, but i wanted to put it in perspective the rally we have seen. One stock to keep an eye on that could potentially rise this morning is sab miller. Interestingly, it is frontloading its trading update, in the numbers look pretty good. The reason they are updating us is because they are in the midst of the takeover battle. It seems that since september 16, they have said they are intending to make an offer. To find out what the offer is but analysts could feel it could be in excess of 100 billion. Update is looking relatively strong, showing that we could see the likes of Second Quarter training picking Second Quarter trading picking up and accelerating. Revenues picked up significantly. The only slight concern is if you factor in foreign currency. The weakness there did drive down reported revenue into negative territory, 9 for the first half. But when you strip out the effect of ethics weakness of thects weakness, emergingmarket currencies affected a lot were weaker. If you strip that out, the underlying growth is there, in the Second Quarter is accelerating. It really does sound like the company is trying to show it has the strength to continue on its own. The New York Post said that we could see sab miller wanting to fight this against ab. The chairman has fought off many approaches,uisition such as glencore last year. He could want to fend off this approach as well. Miller isent, s. A. T. Giving up sab miller is giving us an idea of how it is going. Easyjet could rise 1 this morning on the back of its passenger growth. We are seeing loan factors improve, in fact 6. 6 million passengers in september, about half a million growth from this time last year. They stand by their fullyear profit outlook. Meanwhile, keep an eye on this french construction company. Qaa is going to be selling some shares and that could put some pressure on the stock. Anna thank you. Caroline hyde with what to watch. Guy lets go from corporate to macro. German factory numbers are out. Little bit of a mess quite a big mess, actually. We have seen other numbers out this week showing signs of weakness lets go to hans nichols for an update. Well, we have dug into the numbers and one thing that jumps out at me is that the overall decline for factory orders is august. Items, it isicket at 2. 1 . That gives you a sense that this isnt just the auto company exporting to china. This isnt just the big conglomerate, this is across the board. Throughout the summer or have been so many bad headlines. From the slowdown down in greece, the political uncertainty. We didnt see that reflected the gdp. And we had all the china slowdowns in august. We didnt see that reflect. We saw strong that he w numbers. Now it is starting to appear in the data, and one thing is that this is not pricing and. This does not include the volkswagen headwinds. Volkswagen sales in japan, down 9. 1 month by month. For the month of september and south korea, it is down 7. 8 . It is down 1 in italy to give you a sense of whats in europe, but we saw Fiat Chrysler sales jumped 20 , an indication that the auto sector is strong, but brian volkswagen is suffering. Yesterday, we didnt beat expectations on pmi. Flashing signs on the German Economy but remember we have a weak euro and mario draghi is hinting that he may expand the size and scope of qe. Maybe later this month when they meet in malta, it might push. Four jon ferro can make the trip. [laughter] anna very generous. Hans is working the assignment from berlin. Guy these are critical things. What else to watch today . Anna we are watching the imf World Economic outlook. 3 00 london time. We will get more details on how the imf sees the world. Just to correct something i said David Cameron does not speak today. That continues through a number of days and he speaks on wednesday. Boris johnson will be speaking today. Guy watch out for that one. Quick heads up on where we think the European Markets will open. Flat is the picture flat to slightly negative. Euro stocks down, london might be a bit more positive. Dax and cac down. Seen isy we have teetering out a little bit. Anna lets get more from juliet. We have been talking about the greece story a little bit this morning. We went over to athens to talk about this, tsipras mark 2. He is reinventing himself. He thinks he has been given a different mandate what are your latest thoughts on greece . Juliet we think it is still too early to get majorly involved in that equity market. There is a bit of a sense of deja vu. It is really dependent on these prior actions. The rest of europe really wants to see some progress being made in terms of what the greeks are promised to do. They may be looking for lower rates and extensions, but they need to make some progress as well in terms of pension reform and recatalyzing the banks. That is something we will need to see Real Progress on. Guy china is slowing down, the greece increasingly feels like a sideshow, doesnt it . Concerned . Overly juliet at the time, it was significant. Years,e last four, five we have seen the european Financial Sector will the fairly effective firewall so that whatever happens in greece, the impacts will be far less now than it would be then. We are not looking for a disaster out of greece. Huge amounte is a of goodwill on both sides to ensure that things do work. Anna given we are going to get a new outlook from the imf later on today, what would a scary number on growth look like for china . For a long time we had this we saw onember, 7 , brokerage in china talking about 4 or 5 . What kind of numbers defined scary. Juliet 4 or 5 would be quite scary, if it were to come down that will. But we have very little visibility to what that number is going to be. Anna will we bank on the commodities cycle . Juliet absolutely. And if you consider europe, one should remember that china is only one market that europe exports to. The u. S. Counts for more than 20 futures. Anna thank you very much for joining us. Guy we are minutes away from the start of european trading. Jon ferro will be opening the market for you. Whats on deck . Jonathan after five days of gains to the u. S. Equity market, the longest winning streak so far this year stop the Federal Reserve is saying we dont know what were doing and Goldman Sachs is saying the fed may have to wait until 2016 before they think about hiking Interest Rates. Bill gross says go to cash. Activision is what really strikes me, the likes of billionaires like bill gross saying go to cash. Further for division then emerging markets. Fortress is that the bear market for e. M. Will rival 1997. Templeton calls it a once in a decade opportunity. The question this morning is which one is it . Even here in europe the division is remarkable. A lot of people look at german factory orders and say it is noise. You have to slow down in china and it will bite. Guy and it is geared to it. We look forward to the conversations. Jon ferro, up with on the move jonathan good morning and welcome to on the move. Bloom i am at bloombergs European Headquarters in london. Lets get straight to your morning brief. Pause for thought. The s p 500 strings together the longest winning streak so far this year. Bill gross says go to cash. Germaning data factory orders unexpectedly fell in august, a sign that it is volatile to a slowdown in china. Thefirmly on hold reserve bank of australia leaves Interest Rates unchanged at a record low 2 . The aussie dollar jumped. Later in programming, do not chiefs editor in conversation with the former Deutsche Bank ceo in just over an hour. You do not want to miss that. 15 seconds from the open. Ftse 100, futures up 11 points. Dax also up. What are we going to get . Lets get it with caroline hyde. Caroline a pause in Risk Appetite after adding 2 trillion to world equities. Weci equity index cling onto the green, despite the pretty dire german factory orders. They were down 1. 8 . We were expecting growth. Last month, july, was revised even lower. Is lacklustermand at the moment. Goodness knows how much more pain the brian volkswagen will wreak. We have mario draghi taki

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