Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20150416

Hello. Welcome to countdown. Im mark barton. I;m caroline hyde. Im caroline hyde. We take a look at the policy in asias two biggest economies. Wolfgang schaeuble doesnt see a deal with greece on the new bailout. Dozens and that doesnt mean they may have to leave the euro. It is up to the greek government to commit to save rather than give full hope to the people. Greece remains part of europe in any case. It ever happens in Greece Greece remains part of europe. If greece stays in the euro zone, it must create the conditions for it. What the greece has the money to meet its obligations is primarily a decision of the greek government. If greece one support, we will give the support. Of course, within the framework of what we agreed. Shoretel rolled out further concessions, sing another sch aruble. Good morning. Is offering a dose of reality or pessimism and perhaps both p a is clear is the idea of having a deal at that summit is a nonstarter. No one expects that to happen. He spoken german. You could almost hear his frustration and the words he is choosing. The program has been extended twice. It runs through june 30. If greece wants to avail itself of the remaining funds, a solution must be found by june 30. A year deadline that is the deadline of the program. That contradicts with the greek finance minister is talking about. He wants to see a deal on april 24 in part because greece needs the cash. The have another payment they are rolling over bonds later tomorrow. There got other things coming next week. Dont forget they have to pay salaries at the end of the month. Thereafter, Interest Payments to the imf in may. May is a crucial month. That is why you see them talking so much about what they need. His talk about the need for consolidation. He is talking about potentially holding a national referendum. You could see a way for him to backtrack. Schaeuble wasnt just critical of the greek government. It seems to as well . Yes. This danger of what happens if germany gets to competitive . His solution to all this is more fiscal union. The problem in europe is that overall in europe, even though we are in a Economic Situation, we have to make sure that we dont lose the perspective of the next several decades. That is linked to competitiveness. The annual Spring Meeting at the imf he will be at the white house for a great celebration. Three year yield on greek debt reached a high close to 25 . Mark . Thanks. Hans nichols, our Bloomberg International correspondent in berlin. Meanwhile, jack lew holds his first facetoface meeting with the greek finance minister. The gathering of washington for the Spring Meeting of the international on a terry fund. The message kicks off. The rest of the world needs to pick up the pace. The u. S. Economy over whether the First Quarter slowdown. Make policy decisions that will boost Global Growth. Look at the u. S. Economy. The strength compared to other economies around the world explains what the card currency is. Im focusing on the need for of economists to be stronger. Secretary lew will sit down with the greek finance minister for the first time facetoface. It is time to temp down rhetoric on both sides. No doubt if this leads to a crisis such as greece leaving the euro zone it would cause an enormous amount of disruption and hardship on greece. No one should think that all of the risk, change like that is predictable in advance. It would not be in a good thing in an economy recovering from a deep recession. A greek exit they worry about as Imf World Bank meeting get underway. You can find more of the interview at bloomberg. Com. 6 07 a. M. In london new treasury data shows japan has become the biggest foreign creditor of the United States. David inglis is in hong kong. Good morning. Give us a sense of what this means. Good morning. It is becoming the worlds biggest foreign holder. Back then, japan held more than double what china had. China was roughly about 310. That is roughly the amount belgium holds. By 2008, roughly in each. The demand for u. S. Securities continues to rise. That is a data that came out of the u. S. Treasury department. What has happened over the last three years and the reason why we are here big part comes down to monetary policy. You see that yen dollar gaining. There was a need to weaken the yen. Look at what happened with china. There wasnt a need for them to keep the yuan from strengthening. It has been slowing down over the past few years. In fact, it is fairly weak levels. Back to you guys. David ingles in hong kong. In the u. K. , Michael Spencer said he would consider moving his firm abroad if ed miliband wins next months general election. Are circumstances in which i would leave the country. Regrettably, but i would yes. It is kind of time to contemplate. Get a heart is hardly surprising someone who was until recently the treasure of the tories in an election campaign. Export how the outcome of the u. K. Election could impact londons position in the Global Financial hub did it including leading voices from the city. It was hosted by gone johnson. Stay with bloomberg for the full debate. Russians get the rare chance to question the president. Vladimir putin is hosting the q a call in session p he will field questions from the general public on television. The calls pour in for our spirit last year featured a few questions from a fugitive u. S. Security contractor edward snowden. Ryan is here. Lets bring them in. Good morning. What is likely to be on the agenda . There gotten more than one million. Many people see this as a stage managed exercise. Russians want to know about the country standoff with the west. There are even more social economic questions, particularly from the region people are worried about wages, inflation and the state of the economy. That has become a big issue. Have seen a rise in some of the violence that is happening. Will that be at the forefront as far as Foreign Policy issue . I think so. They say pictures every single day get a russian journalist was killed there earlier this week. Let the most deadly and bloody day of violence in two months. People see that. They are concerned it will the spill over into russia proper . We recognize that to regions in Eastern Ukraine . Why dont we do that . Hell probably have to and want to adjust in any case. On the flipside, yes, the economy is in good shape. The ruvell falling below 50. A good 2015. The rybuble falling below 50. A good 2015 at least for now . At least for now. Maybe this is going to be tenuous. 52 the dollar. That is the best the ruvell has done since november. Yesterday we had an alltime high. It aids the russian budget. It could be tenuous. Russians think about the exchange rate. You look at the month of march. Inflation was shy of 17 . Real wages are declining. Think about the first two terms. The economy teetering at the edge of recession. A quiet confidence. As you said, local bond markets. Of 80 in the last couple of months. I listen to him be very careful. Maybe give us some hint. How long will he go for . Four hours and 47 minutes. I know you time it. It is all about the alpha male. He disappeared from the public eye. You wouldnt have known it. Maybe it is back pain. Maybe his girlfriend is having a baby. I wouldnt be surprised if he goes too long. At the end of the day, everyone knows he can go really long. That is probably enough to show everybody he is in charge and is a healthy 62yearold man. 10 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Well bring a coverage throughout the morning. Vladimir putin takes questions from the public in his and all telephone phone in. There will also be a countdown. Also be a two Day Conference on security. Bigger than expected fall in march in australia appeared of the Unemployment Rate fell to 6. 1 . This a week after the rba capped Interest Rates at a record low in its latest efforts to boost growth viewed the trillion dollar is rising today. Britain faces amounting housing crisis. It may be partly related to that recent election. Uncertainty causing sellers to put off the market. They will urgently need to address the crisis. Join the conversation with us on twitter. Let us know what you think about the show. What would you most like to ask president putin if you did that q a calling . It is 6 17 a. M. In london. The aussie dollar gets an unexpected boost. Find out why after the break. Im focusing on the need for other economists to be stronger. We have the good fortune of having a stronger economy. Other economies need to be stronger. We look at the fx markets. Job rates fell in march. Thanks for joining. Does this change the dynamics when it comes for what the central bank will do in australia . It does muddy the waters. Ultimately i think were still looking to ease policy. The chinese economy is slowing down. It may delay. Still leaning towards another cut. Could we see further weakness in china . The issue in china isnt really commodity intensive. The commodity sector supplies is putting pressure on prices. They tend to be the best guide for the currency. Ultimately, the stimulus is needed. The highest since january the canadian dollar. The central bank intimating that the damage from the Oil Price May be fading. What are the implications . The best candidates still have more optimistic view than most on the market. Not as severe. Theyre expecting a bounce back in the economy over the year ahead. It was suggest if we dont get a bounce back we still think we need to provide support. Ultimately, in the short term there are key technical support. Talking about the flipside of the trade and the aussie seeking more stimulus, the u. S. Seems to be the rate rises. Theres still that big disconnect. I think we should get a scenario. And get stronger. Were still looking june through september. And manufacturing yesterday . Theres an overemphasis on the dollar. They do play a part, but a small part. Despite of the weakness the u. S. Data, it is only it makes you wonder how high it could push on. Icing have ecb meeting would be uneventful. How little do i know . Throwing confetti on the president . And ecb dictatorship. Mario draghi gathered himself and carried on. The message seems to be we will carry out our qe purchases in full. Any talk of tapering should be laughed off for now. The analogy he uses is quite telling. I think it is premature to call an end to it. Rebound as if projecting. Will be doing qe at least until september of next year. The euro is in a consolidation phase. Very quick, but we will be seeing with the japanese yen . That is part of the story as well. A byproduct of qe. Longer term, we are lacking the dollar yen higher. Thanks a lot. Strata strategists. Join us for that conversation. Welcome back to countdown. Appeared intent to look at the foreignexchange markets today. The aussie against its u. S. Counterpart. Unemployment falling to 6. 1 . The number of people employed rose almost 38,000, spurring investors to question the next move by the central bank in australia. Theyre keeping our wing costs unchanged. What it is trying to do is encourage spending to offset falling Mining Investment. The economy has been spurred by this mining boom in the last decade. A show you facing the effects of falling prices. The economy grew by 2. 5 in the final few months from a year earlier. That was below that handled rate of the last 30 years. Traders are pricing in 50 basis points in the next 12 months from 59 basis points prior to the release of todays jobs data according to a Credit Suisse group indexe. The aussie has fallen about 5 against the u. S. Dollar in the last 12 months is something about 17 after the rba cut rate by 2. 5 data points, Percentage Points between late 2011 and february of this year. The aussie rising the most. Lets take a look at your other top stories on bloomberg. Japan plink second fiddle to china in recent years. Japan playing second fiddle to china in recent years. Data released on wednesday showed japan topping china since onset of the financial crisis. Netflix shares surged by 12 after hours after strong firstquarter results. The Video Streaming Service responsible for original shows like house of cards has 62 million subscribers world wide. Goldman sachs will be the latest u. S. Bank to release earnings and it is expected to receive good news. Marking the seventh rise in eight days. Earlier this week, jpmorgan exceeded analyst expectations in firstquarter profits. Pakistans finance minister set down with bloomberg to discuss the impacts of a possible lifting of sanctions on you and if they nuclear deal could be reached if a nuclear deal could be reached. It would expand the commercial, trade, and commercial relationship. I personally believe it will enhance by the lifting of the sanctions. He also talks by his countrys current relations with neighboring india. There is a delay on the other side that we were keen to open up. Known for opening up trade and relations and dialogue including a discussion. Ishawqaq da talkingr ishaq dar talking to bloomberg. Im talking about diageo. Johnny walker. Smirnoff. Baileys. It is a big wine maker, too. Were getting thirdquarter sales. Slowburn. It is respected to grow some 2 overall for the group. Africa is the jewel in the crown at the moment. If youre looking at asiapacific it made inroads in the them aging emerging markets. Get giving has been clamped down. If there are looking at the developing markets it will be sluggish. North a more cap north america growing threat of 2. 1 . We likely to see decline overall. This is still in transition. Well see how these numbers stack up. Sab miller, another slow quarter by deutsche bank. Secondbiggest brewer in the world. These are the kinds of beers they currently make. We have seen volumes declining in the past couple of quarters. We have seen them fall in the First Quarter. It will not be very substantial. Latin america is the biggest market. This is where we are seeing weaker consumers. This is another trend that will be holding sab miller overall. This is where they get a third of the revenue. It is a very important region for them. Africa is likely to be a bright spot. Sale south africa with 22 . Again about a third overall. Africa could show some recovery. It is a tough environment out there for booze makers. Soft drinks is where you have been trying to make inroads. We will be looking for their numbers. Not many things to be raising a pint too. Thanks. Tell us what you think of the show. Tell us a story want to hear more about. Mario draghi trending today. No surprises. A woman made a name for herself did she vaulted onto his desk at the meeting and through confetti on him while shouting end the ecb dictatorship. Jews taken away by security. Our drug gathered himself and proceeded with the meeting draghi gathered himself and proceeded with the meeting. Coming, oil trading near its high. We will ask our next guest after the break. If you look at the u. S. Economy with the relevant strength compared to other economies, it explains the currency evaluation. It is coming from our strength and less strong economies elsewhere. Focusing on the need for other economies to be stronger. That was u. S. Secretary jack lew in an interview with peter cook. Hell meet with other finance chiefs and bankers from around the world at the imf. Cap stories on bloomberg is our, Vladimir Putin takes questions from his annual phone in. Defense ministers will gather in moscow for a two Day Conference on international security. On a plenary in australia fell the Unemployment Rate in australia fell. The rba kept its rate in efforts to boost growth. About chilean dollar is rising today on the news. The aussie is rising today on the news. Im putting pressure on pricing. The drop in supply may be partly related to the upcoming election with uncertainty causing sellers to hold off putting property on the market the new government will need to address that crisis. Oil traders with a high. Showing signs of elite eating the surplus. As leaders meet in paris for the oil summit prayer it oil summit. Lets talk about your views on where oil prices are going. You are looking optimistic to the second half of the year. While prices could edge higher . It is a good thing. You could describe it as optimistic. It is extraordinary. They publish their outlook, reminding us there is still an enormous surplus of supply and the demand in global markets. The oil markets are forwardlooking more than ever today. The second half of 2015 is the ia numbers and other numbers turn out to be correct. That surplus starts to disappear. U. S. Production will have peaked. It is starting to have its effects on production. It looks as if the worst may be over in terms of an unbalanced oil market. Does that mean opec has won . In some respect, when it collapsed to the way it did i think the speed of the decline took a lot of people by surprise. I think the speed of what could be a recovery seems to have taken us by surprise. Has opec won . You could say it has. Gritted its teeth. Took the pain of lower prices. Counting producers to cut back costs if they wanted to keep their place in the markets. Looks like that battle has been one by the opec producers. Theyre getting is to lower prices are some time to come peter have kept their market share. Theyre positioned themselves nicely. When the Global Economy starts to grow faster, they are in a strong position to see gradual price rises. That is what they need. Radel rices. Gradual rices. Prices. They had never guess it doesnt suit longterm purposes to have oil at 100 a barrel. And me to return to alternative energy. That is the point. We need a price which is high enough to interact investment in new supply come up a so high that it chokes off the land. 100 a barrel has attracted investments no doubt about that, but it has attracted to much investment. In the end, opec has suffered by the years by the 100 barrel oil. Had that persisted and they did many times but they did in the past that would have been selfdefeating. They wouldve lost market share. They would have been worse off. Can opec he trusted tos day within the downed trees . Within the boundaries . You got the likes of iraq and i gery and venezuela nigeria and then assailant. I gery has a lot of problems at the moment nigeria has a lot of problems at the moment. Then us well no position to pump oil. Venezuela is in no position to pump oil. They are dumping a responsible and gradual approach. They have to take some pain in the shortterm. No pain, no gain. The market should start to improve gradually. That is what they want. We cannot work out whether it is a supplier demand side story at the moment. It was interesting. Calling for a Production Cut to do think we would ever see a return to opec starting to bring starting to cut . Not in the foreseeable future. However, depending on the progress of nuclear talks, the p 5 1, iran might be in a position to supply more oil into the markets once sanctions are listed. It would be interesting to see what happens to oil prices then. A large amount of supply would be available relatively quickly. I suspect that wont be the case. Not until 2016. For the time being, we are set for gradual improvements in prices. Tell us about shale producers. What is the reality right now . The magic of the market has worked. We have seen lower prices. It is no longer viable. We have seen a gradual reduction in drilling at unity. This artist back in october i think when we saw the first signs of drilling at to the going down. That works its way into the fact that is lower output. The numbers put out by the u. S. Department of energy yesterday or the day before suggest that the week rather than for the shale production is likely to come possibly as early as may, june july, Something Like that. You could see it looks as if it is beginning to flatten out. The ia says it could recover by the end of their. It could by the end of the year. Is good it could. They are ingenious. Find ways of getting more out of the ground for less. It may will be the u. S. Production will be rather more robust than some people have thought. That remains to be seen. The u. K. Processing how many barrels to be found near gatwick. Are millions of barrels per square mile. I have never heard that unit expressed before. I dont understand what it means for voices of sanity are asserting themselves. Yes, doubtless reserves may be reducible at the current prices. Certainly not does 100 billion figure. The company concern might have been perhaps excited by what it back. Thanks for joining us. 6 50 a. M. Coming up, it look at unusual people billionaires trust to manage their money. The problem in europe is that even though we are in a good Economic Situation, we have to make sure even in germany and the globalization of the World Economy, that we dont lose the perspective of the next several decades. That is linked to competitiveness. The german finance minister wolfgang shoretel Wolfgang Schaeuble talking about the challenges he sees faced by european. Michael spencer saying he would move his firm abroad if ed miliband wins next months election. Their circumstances i would leave the country regrettably. It is kind of it is time to be contemplative. The labor responded and released the following it is hardly surprising someone who was until recently the treasure of the conservative party the is backing the tories in an election campaign. Spencer spoke at a Bloomberg Politics debate exploring how the outcome of the u. K. Election impact londons position as a Global Financial hub. The panel included a leading voices from the city. Was hosted by our very own guy johnson. Stay with bloomberg for the full debate. It is at 11 00 u. K. Time. Lets take a look at our top choices from bloomberg. Where are you been putting your money . Sadly not here. Really interesting. The story is about billionaires and family offices. The company set up to manage her money and manage your life. Apparently, there is some 30 billion to his name. They are helping him manage his fortune. He has appointed former navy seal and swat team to help with security management. A yacht captain to help with aquatic endeavors. Fitness. Photographers. All to help run his life. It is interesting document and the rise of these family dismisses. Wealth of dismisses. Over 14000 families with at least 100 Million Dollars in the world. Up 42 since 2008 in ash its. Wish it assets. Wish that was my family. I love it when they call a 47yearold young and talented. It gives me hope. He left a german football club. It came as a bit of a shock. The team hasnt been doing well this season. It was quite a hefty fall. He will stay until the end of the season. It was regarded as a of a mediocre team. Two backtoback titles. They struggled this season. Maybe you could be heading to england. That will be interesting. Stay with us. No deal expected. The exclusive broadcast interview. He does not see it. Britain under labor and theyd tell bloomberg he may move abroad if ed williams edit wins the election. The russian president plans to hold the phone in tv show. Welcome to countdown. We have breaking auto sales figures on the bloomberg terminal and we have another increase for the month of march with registration climbing to 11. 6 5 million. For the First Quarter deliveries rose and the recovery from a two decade low picks up momentum. It is raising the forecast this year for european deliveries. That is the highest figure and reporting the strongest gain in the u. K. It is the highest level this century. Hoping to encourage sales and rebates widening in march with a list price from earlier and the best deals were available on models with rebates of 14. 4 . It is europe he and car sales growth and in march miller. Caroline the secondbiggest brewer in the world beats forecasts in the fourthquarter volumes. We see it up 0. 4 and 2 is a beats with doubledigit growth and sustained growth in latin america. Columbia is the biggest market in latin america stays positive. Also, asia are returning to growth and that is important. Asia has been a real area of weakness is the number one distiller in the world. You have red stripe and a it of wine. He will be leaving overall and you are seeing Third Quarter organic sales down. This is a big mess and many thought the growth would be 2 for organic sales. They say the performance in the quarter reflects tougher emerging markets. Giftgiving has the government reining in giftgiving. The consumer demand in developing markets with the u. S. Always being where they have been in the number one area and the uscs weak consumer sentiment. Overall, it is a mess and you have them continuing to outpace with winding down stocks. They have a chief area of growth in ethiopia. It is a substantial beat. There is unilever and the Consumer Products company. The company says it is starting to see more tailwind than headwind and markets. There is underlying growth and estimates of underlying pricing growth of 1. 9 . The revenue is 12 point billion euros. The early indication is very much positive from you are. They see the priority. It has been a dip in sales growth. It weakened in emerging markets in china with big retailers running down inventory results. As a result of all that, it is splitting the u. S. And european spread operations this year. Let news of the tailwind rather than the headwind should be something for investors to hang onto today. A pickup. Wolfgang tells us he does not see a deal. It does not mean they will leave the euro. The greek government commits to aid. Greece remains part of europe and whatever happens, it remains part of the European Union and, if it stays in the eurozone they craves conditions for it. Primarily, it is a decision of the government. If they want support, we will give them support. It is within the framework of what we agree. There were further concessions that said another debt restructuring wasnt now. Hans nichols is in berlin. What can we take away from what he has to say there. The first role of a crisis is that he has the first and final word. You are getting a bit of pessimism and reality and you can almost hear his frustration with the new government coming through. The program has been extended twice and runs through june 30. If greece wants to avail itself of the funds in the program this solution must be found by june 30. That is the deadline of the program. It dashes hopes that there will be some sort of agreement next week. Publicly, he is contradicting him and some officials are saying that they want to have the deal done and the timeline is much further out. There is the big debt payments and may is a difficult month. They start paying interest and at the end of every month, the have salaries and tensions. It will be a big problem and a tension. Bill increase borrowing pressure before the interview. You saw the yield spike on the threeyear note and there is an increase of 2526 . He said that he thought the current government had all but destroyed the efforts of the previous. Clearly, he wants a reason to stick with the plan and make the commitment. Not before and not without he was critical of the greek government and seems to have trained his side on the government. The pessimism was with his concern of germany being too competitive and it could be a problem for the European Union. The plan is to have title tighter fiscal units. The problem in europe is that , we are in a good Economic Situation and we have to make sure the dynamics of globalization in the World Economy does not lose the perspective of the next several decades and that links to competitiveness. Ministers will be in washington and, a quick note, the minister has a meeting at the white house and will be there to celebrate greek independence. Will be watching to see obama and the greek finance minister finding some sort of a solution. Mark thanks a lot. The u. S. Treasury secretary holds his third facetoface meeting today with the central bankers and finance ministers gathering. Peter set down with him. The rest of the world needs to pick up the economic pace. The u. S. Economy will whether the slowdown brought on and others boost Global Growth. The relative strength of the economy compared to other economies around the world explains the currency evaluations. They come from our strength and less strong economies elsewhere. A big issue is the greek default. The secretary will sit down with the greek finance minister for the first time facetoface with the message of tamping down the rhetoric on both sides. No doubt, if this leads to the crisis, like greece leaving the euro zone eurozone, it will cause disruption and hardship. I have said consistently that no one should think all of the risk of change is predictable in advance and, even if the condition is less than it was in 2012 or earlier, it would not be a good thing to recover from a deep recession to have uncertainty introduced. The World Bank Meetings get under way. Bloomberg and washington. There is somebody missing from the show today. He is in switzerland and catching up with some of the assets. He will be bringing a starstudded cast of interviews today. Good morning. What is the mood like there. It is interesting. You talk to people in a relaxed interview and it is fairly of heat i have to say. It is high yields overvalued and where we are with equity markets. There is no overriding there is a variety of people we talk through talk to through the morning. We talk regularly and mark joins us. Brace for financial look d show. There is liquidity out there and the margin and debt trading is higher than it was in the 1990s. We then talk to the man who has a lot on his shoulders. He is the man at the top of Wealth Management and people talk the offices around the world with 2 trillion under management. These guys have a huge amount of money and a huge responsibility. We are talking a little bit about what the Technology Means and the asian markets roaring ahead. We have a conversation with philip who is now the vice chair and i am looking at the list. We have asset allocators here and you have Franklin Templeton and black rock in the building. The leader and partners are here. Apparently, there is a bit of a crane to the left and right and some people say that is an average day. The sun is shining and i am good i am in good form. Mark good to see you today. Caroline lets have another check on some the stories on bloomberg all stop Vladimir Putin takes questions from the public. Defense ministers from 15 countries gather in moscow and chinas will be among the guests. Australia shows a good unexpected falls in on employment in march. The rate fell and was revised down. This came after the rba kept a rate at a record low. That has been the latest effort to boost growth and the Australian Dollar is rising on the news. A mounting housing artist a drop in supplies may be related to the general election and causes sellers to hold off on the market. A new government will urgently need to address the crisis. We will find out about the story and more. Let us know a few think of the show and tell us what you want to learn more about. A protester stood on the table and threw confetti at him. There are plenty of females throwing themselves. Anna has plenty of men throwing themselves at her. Gold or diamonds. Vladimir putin holds his annual televised callin show today and we will tell you what to expect. Caroline russians get an opportunity to quiz their president today. Going back to chris and ryan show coats our russian expert. How long should we expect . It is 47 minutes and 81 questions. It would be questions i would expect. The opinion poll shows that people have become less interested in geopolitics and more concerned with inflation and job security. I suspect questions will be about that. The kremlin may try to steer the questions and have a balance between russia, the u. S. , and the west and russia has been focused on that. That is the message that the president will give. What happened is necessary to establish a new role in the world. He has a crunch in ruble performance and local bond market performance. How much of a crutch is it . It is officials last couple of months seeing the worst is over and Vladimir Putin has been measured with the comments. He is warning people that russia faces a tough year. Remember that despite the rally, the country is still heading towards a recession and this will mark a technical recession that is in decline for two consecutive quarters. We expect the economy to contract and it might be a little better. In spite of a strong start to the year, there is still lots of stories in moscow and it is still to come. So my opinion is that the rallies have overstretched and there seems to be an overreaction. The rallies we have had have been on the other side with some of the assumptions needing to be validated. It is not allowing this to get far. When it unravels, it is negative. It is a cautionary response that i would expect. The worst performing currency is up and yesterday we saw it. It is something the kremlin should be delighted about . Lee crazy volatility has ended and there has been pulled back. It is a call and it is too much because it has not declined as much as. The cheap ruble has made it boost manufacturing. I think the concern is that we could have a deeper recession this year. It is a balancing act. They have managed to pull it back rather than market action. It could affect the economic recovery. It is a little bit below the dollar. The achilles heel is what is going to happen next in the ukraine. My opinion is that the kremlin is reacts to relaxed about the situation and where we are in the ukraine is an exceptional position. There is a buffer zone in the Eastern Ukraine that stops the encroachment of the west. No more land grabs . I think it has always been about crimea and creating a buffer zone and that, to some extent, is where we are at today. It is a good indicator of the political tone and the agreement. It shows that there is pragmatism in the relationship. The bottom line is that the economy matters a great deal and there is not in ideal situation or an acceptable stop gap. It allows the kremlin to focus on issues and it is around 17 . The inflation is 17 and i expect that we could see a 200 basis point cut down and that is part of the message and the recovery story. Im very focused on the domestic economy fixing the problem against a backdrop of geopolitics for now in an acceptable position. Thank you. Stay with us with more netflix next. Mark welcome back. It is time for the foreignexchange markets. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell in march. Unemployment falling to 6. 1 . The number of people employed is almost 30000 and stirrers some investors to do it to a quarter with encouraging spending to cut the Mining Investment and the economy gdp grew to 2. 5 in 2014. And over the last 30 years. They figure the rate cuts in the next four months. That is prior to them cutting the rates. The currency is dropping 5 and it has fallen by 17 following the cuts from 2011 and, looking at the flip side of the trade, investors pencil in rates to the night states and it shows the rate unexpectedly falling in march and pushing the dollar to its best performance. Lets have a look at some of the others. Japan is overtaking the larger neighbor and the Treasury Department data released shows japan topping china for the First Time Since the onset. Netflix is on the back of the strong firstquarter results and house of cards now has subscribers worldwide in the First Quarter. Goldman sachs will be the latest to release firstquarter earnings and goldman shares went above 200 on thursday for the First Time Since 2008. Earlier this week jpmorgan exceeded analysts expectations. You may have noticed that is missing. Switzerland is catching up with some of the foremost Asset Managers and the wealth and management summit in getting in the mood for greece and china. Manas, you have a guest with you. I have. I have your namesake. I have mark with the 11 trillion represented. To train dollars of that is this responsibility. No weight on the shoulders. I want to start with the big story this morning and they are warning of a liquidity shock. They say that the margins are trading the highest since 1990. This is the warning about liquidity. Lets just say they are not really portfolio managers. You can take it at face value and we have seen what it looks like. I think we are position for that move band the liquidity is the thinnest. You are positioned for that. There is a story he has where he says the have to stick to the program. How much market risk does greece have . Everyone says they are protected and the banks are fine. Do you still agree . Is it the back of the minds where you underestimate the potential market risk . Certainly, whatever you want to call it, it would create market volatility. We have a playbook in place that provides liquidity. The question is, if we have an incident, the next day the ecb says it is committed and all the country say they are committed we have not seen that yet and there is good reason. You said, at the end of the day it is morality versus reality and they have their foot to the floor. Do you just have to go with the areas that come through . You cannot just go with the flow forever. The text books on economics have been thrown out the window. People who want to stick to the traditional rules are struggling and we have many who are struggling and are not fully invested. The cash does not yielding anything and we think there is still room to force these clients into riskier assets. First of all the companies out there are not overleveraged. It is going up in the United States and we are seeing lowball economic growth. You have a heavy position in europe and it brings me to the next issue, it has been commented upon a lot lately. You are being chased out of the yield curve and into positions we would not want to take. Where do you position yourself with risk equity . We have negative yields in germany and a thumb year in a thumbnail of hans. Of bonds. We thought it was the limit and it would cap the return and normalize the cycle. We have gone negative and it is a sign the Central Banks will continue to bid. Eventually, this will unwind and there will be big losers. You look at the emerging markets and it is a place where we could see losers quickly and a reversal. You say, i get it and we cannot go forever. Where are the losers . You have Cheaper Energy prices and that is the figure with dollars. We have seen it last week. Where were you . There is so much money out there and investors are waiting to pay off the growth for companies and they are willing to pay up for companies. They are willing to return capital to shareholders and give them a stable return with growth. We get excited about 2 . We should get excited about 2 . Is that enough growth to warrant the cash returns on a constant basis over the next five years . The u. S. Is struggling with their growth levels. First quarter, second quarter, you look at the year and you see the u. S. Growth accelerate to an increase in Global Growth out there. I cannot predict the cycle will last. 2 is good when the swiss government bonds yield negatives. I think you can make money on that spread. The other issue is the u. K. We are slammed every day with tax patron day and grexit. How do you look at the sterling assets . This level of uncertainty comes across your desk. Does it come around in your meetings . We talk about what has gone on and the u. K. Started the easing early and recovered well. In a way, they set the playbook for the United States and japan. Now it is kind of a punt. We are neutral on equities. The growth is strong and the markets reflect that. There will be continued uncertainty around the elections until there is clarity on the european referendum. You will spend the day in front of advisors a little later on and your conviction for 2013, what is your biggest call that you want to make . The biggest call is they still have not come to our Strategic Asset allocations which is over rate overweight on risk and has components in credit. The government wants are not the only place you can invest. The assets of the past are becoming increasingly risky. We look forward to the rest. Thanks. Enjoy the day. We have more to calm. We have covered pretty much everything and we left mark off. Back to you. We have the advice chair. Mark good chat. See you later. Just to remind you a little later, the Wealth Management president is around half past it 00 stop the lithuanian finance minister and manas will catch up with the blackrock chairman. Join us on twitter. It looks beautiful out there. Mario draghi continuing to trend on twitter after yesterday and the confetti. I am at mark art and tv. Mark ortbartontv. Is the russian crisis over . Mark time for the chart. As the russian crisis over . The question is important to the russian president. Lets start with the russian currency. It strengthened and for the First Time Since november, a far cry from the price or the level reached on december 16. The white circle was a day after the Central Banks surprise the world. There was the basis point hike and the ruvell has gone from the worst performing currency last year with a drop of 46 . The best prefer more the best performer. Currency bonds are telling the story. This is the second chart and the local sovereigns bond asked local sovereign bond index. It is one of the emergingmarket Sovereign Industries with a return of 2. 2 . The yellow circle right there is december 16 with the index following to an alltime low after the surprise rate hike. The trend improves and russia tops the emerging markets with a return of stocks. The third is one of two equity benchmarks in russia. It is counted in rubles in 2014. It was the worst performing global stock market out of the 93 we track have bloomberg this year. Look at the trend. Things have improved and it is the fourth test performer. Last year, the green circle with december 16. It sunk by 12 . You have to say, from a market perspective, the evidence suggests the worst of the market crisis is over and has the price of oil to thank for the crude. It is the main export blend am there is still the economy that is likely to enter the recession with consumers bearing the brunt of the fall. Caroline another debate we hosted was 21 days away from the election. We take a look at how the impact could affect the global hub. Guy johnson joins me now. It was an interesting debate. Im trying to think of another i can use. It was choppy in a good way. It was there with the startup and they were in great form. They delivered punch he lines. The political makeup of the group is fairly agnostic. Michael spencer is right of center. They made it clear that they have significant fears with this election. The ceo had a stark warning. There are circumstances where i would leave the country, regrettably. It is kind of your ports says it is about time we contemplated redomicile goinging. That was his view. He would not take it to paris. He was rude about the germans and was not pulling his punches. He says, he is not going to paris. If the regulatory gets onerous he is going to new york. He was not point punches. He was asked if the Labor Party Government was an unprecedented disaster. He said it would not be unprecedented. He said it would be a disaster. He is in the same camp as spencer is. He is not a former party treasurer. He is right of center. Lets play the sound. The city in the Financial Services are narrowing and it is a fairly conservative outcome to all the alternatives. It is probably the worst alternative for the city that we can imagine of the labor snp domination. That would be leftwing and in the city. We decide we better contact the labor party and, to a certain extent, more relating to spencer and the party treasurer. This was the response that was, until somebody recently said was backing the tories in a campaign and it was a nonstory. It was great. When does it air . A little later on. We will have all the headlines. Thank you very much. That is exactly what he is saying. Tune in at 11 00. We will be back in just a couple of minutes. Mark leave bloomberg credit market strategist. The bloomberg credit market strategist. We are a couple of basis points on the 10 year and the risk is on. You need yield with Corporate Bonds and you continue to stretch the risk exposure. We have the bonds coming to the market. Caroline companies are not bothering to go to the ratings agencies. We want to see the rated bond. There is the triple c part. They came yesterday with three and a quarter percent and it gets taken down whenever. We have investors this week and they are looking to build. As mario draghi said, tapering is not going to happen anytime soon. Mark we fear it will end in tears. Caroline we have been fearing it will end in tears for a while. The trigger will be more hawkish coming out and what it does for risk allocation in europe. On the move is next. Jon good morning and welcome to on the move. We are moments away from the start of european trading. I will do my best to match the conference yesterday and bring you the video. Lets get straight to the morning brief. The german finance minister commits to reforms. A bloomberg exclusive. He says he would consider moving his firm a broad. Australia adds jobs in march and double the estimate. The surge was netflix booming. Almost 5 billion in the First Quarter two top 62 million. The stock soared to a record high. Ahead of the open the markets are pretty much dead flat. The german 10 year yields approach zero and we go 10 basis points or nine basis points to record lows. Crude is making a comeback and we will talk about that. Lets check in how we are opening up in equity markets. We are looking at france up and the united kingdom. There is a surge yesterday and the data came in once again with production down and