Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20141128

Countdown a warm welcome to a warm welcome to countdown. Most of us think we know stories that could be made into a movie but what are the secrets of successful finance for film. The producer of a new film will be joining us for an interview and our playbook conversation. Intoll give up his insight the realities of getting a great idea onto the big screen. Lets get to our top story, a new era for oil. Opec refused to yield its production and it is having a Ripple Effect across global markets. Asian airlines gained as our prices helped reduce yield cost and most emerging yield costs fell. Some opec states are using the price war to challenge nonmembers especially shale drillers. He caught up with him just after the decision to make output targets. Can you give us your view of the decision and a little bit of a deliberations. Every buddy has responsibilities but it was felt that maintaining the level would apact and would produce reduced decline. And what about venice where the argument that i cut as necessary. It is not only venezuela, there are other countries. I think we would always come to a consensus for opec and for the world global oil market. Was there a sense that at these levels american crude reducers can be shaken out of the market . Im not sure they can be shaken out but over the next few months the Market Forces for supply and demand will come to some agreement in terms of prices and that sooner or later opec and nonopec will have to share the burden. Next time around the running recommend they cut . It depends on the next few months but we will both share burdens. We watch and wait that was the Nigerian Oil Minister walking and talking with ryan over there in vienna now according to an opec delegate she will be named president of the organization next year succeeding the libyan president and we will bring you more of the extensive coverage at opec on twoout the morning matters fiscal. France and italy will escape immediate punishment for their Budget Proposal according to an eu official speaking on the condition of anonymity. Later today the european condition will warn france and italy that the have until march to follow through on cutting possibler face sanctions. David cameron will lay out his latest plan to cut immigration the day after statistics show he missed a previous pledge to lower it. He will propose that europeans arriving and the u. K. Should not receive Welfare Benefits or state housing for four years. This is the second time he has made a major policy speech to counter the rise of the Independence Party which now has two seats in westminster. As David Cameron tries to stem the flow of migrants, switzerland is looking at the amigration issue this weekend nationwide vote could drastically reduce immigration and the output of the big businesses. Mountains, lakes and woods make a more than half of switzerland but for the population almost doubling since the 1950s the countryside has been rapidly urbanized. That may sound a bit dramatic to some. New york has about the same area of people in it area 50 times smaller. Solution is banning immigration. 30 of the 8 million inhabitants are foreigners. It could be up the government to cap the impact from abroad and critics call it racist but they say it will repacked protect resources. Many Swiss Companies are already relying on Foreign Workers and the biggest problem might be the foreign union. Switzerland gets up participate in the common market. The freedom of the movement and officials and brushes brussels already said renegotiating immigration is not an option. That was tom gibson reporting and there are another two key votes taking place this weekend, one of them is on foreign tax breaks and the other on swiss gold. The Swiss Institute will be joining us later and we will focus on the vote around the central bank decision. Black friday used to be a very american event where shoppers went wild in the shops the day after thanksgiving, it has now gone global. Black fridayy of across europe. Caroline hyde. Certainly in the u. K. As well and i can tell you that tesco, they are already seeing police pulled in, riots in the stores. Export that United States has cracked, halloween they did very well and now they have exported black friday as well. In london in the u. K. But also london, Ontario Canada and france. This is truly global. Terms ofit down in numbers, the u. K. Expecting 1. 5 billion pounds to be spence today online and offline. That is one Million Pounds every minute. That is 17,000 pounds gone there. Gone there. About 9 competitive this time last year but other countries are getting in on the action. The u. K. Had it exported in 2010 by amazon but lester did catch and now we are sing that germany is copying, they have black week. ,eals like 40 off a samsung tv friday, ande black even casino their big Supermarket Chain slashing prices in france and exporting it, taking them down in senegal, vietnam and columbia. This really has gone global. It is not just the big businesses you have talked about but you are getting offered by friday so how crucial is it the growth online here . I had a conversation with a taxi driver and sang how what time does black friday start at midnight, and how crucial is it to online. Amazon has had sales the entire week and yet they did say that midnight was the big black friday event, they want to cash in on cyber weekend so the online only retail store has 20 off the entire weekend. Think is really where i we will see the substantial growth. 5 and visabe up says online spending transactions would be up 22 . It is worth remembering that some company so you have to come in store to get deals like tesco but online is going to be more popular and also an element of mobile as well, transactions going to the roof by a smartphone and tablet. You would do it on your commute to work. Time, john lewis saw a 14 times rampup in their mobile transactions. Consider that reiterated. Well have a conversation no doubt about what this means for retailers and getting your strategy run discounts right now it was a key factor last christmas and that could feed into that conversation. Could black friday be read friday if the discount too hard . Yes, will continue the conversation stay with countdown for more on this massive shopping spree. Is blackk. Today friday fever spreads beyond the u. S. Kevin jenkins will be here to was up on what caroline just talking about. You can join the conversation on twitter and let me know what you would like to see more or less out. Annaedwardsnews. Of thehours ahead inflation reading. Could it inspire mario draghi to act. Is kevin adams from Henderson Global investors. Countdown, ack to new era for oil as crude tumbles. What does this mean for the global picture . Joining us now is the director of fixed income at henderson kevin adams. Context, we have some fairly big statements about what opec did yesterday. It is hard to overstate the way opec has taken the risk of action here, is it taking them time to get the heads around . What to keep in mind is that opec is only 30 of Global Oil Supplies other influences not as large as it used to be. Your opec. There is generally a lack of agreement and they dont want at this time to keep the oil price dropped up and are happy to see it fall. Where does this leave us with the great discussion around deflation has been one of the contributing factors. Talked about positioning is that view threatened by the fact that inflation might not pick up and might be difficult for Central Banks moving forward . I think at the moment the Falling Oil Price and the deflationary impulse is giving some banks every reason to delay raising rates. We think in the u. S. And the u. K. That the economies are robust enough to have interestrate increases. They will air on the side of in the side of being slow to raise rates. The environment that you have seen is the yield curves lightening. Likening ves curve slightening. You dont think those will pushed out further . Theyre probably pushed as far as they can go at the moment given that what we see is the underlying strength in the economy. Lets talk about the eurozone, we get the full picture on inflation for another month across the eurozone today, that is a week level even by eurozone standards. You say when and not if we get fullblown quantitative easing, what gives you the confidence . Youve seen statements from mario draghi in the last few days and weeks and which both of them made a significant influence on the ecb talking about reviewing the likelihood of fullblown quantitative easing and i think they would not be making those comments if there were not a good chance of making that. Frankly that is the last bullet in the gun is fullblown quantitative easing. But some of those things are saying lets hold on weight whether the messages we have about operations whether they will have enough of an effect and we dont have to go down the road is it just a question of when . Next week will get action in terms of bonds or a sovereign debt like eib to support the financing of the ib but the next quarter will be in a position with a one need to do the final bullet in the gun which is sovereign qa. How much lower will it go we have seen new records touched it seems like every unique every week. How low do they go from here . There is not that much further you can fall in the german yields are below those from something to the curb so there is not a lot of room to fall but can they fall further . Yes. We had the lead up to qe1 and qe2 in the u. S. Because these offices are well telegraphed the u. S. Kept on falling until the ua was back up again and we have this kind of buy the rumor fact. Any other cliche you can throw in their there. What is the logic around quantitative easing, biggest of to follow through if you say you will do it but with yields so low what is the logic . To push the currency lower . That innk it is exactly terms of reducing the financing costs for European Companies or in terms of getting more money linked by banks into the Economic System qe doesnt really do a lot more than would with wherey happened Government Bond yields are already so it is about pushing more money and to bring the currency down, we have an explicit target to get it lower and europe and have not been explicit about it. What are you expecting from japan because we have election looming toward the end of the year and Inflation Numbers just recently that showed a slowing is the jury month still out for you . I think the jury is still out in many ways theyre trying at hour ist but the third so difficult to enact and that is one of the reasons they have called this snap election to get a renewed mandate to push that through but the same in europe there is only so much the central bank can do by pumping money into the system and dragging sovereign yields down. The reforms quired to improve the dynamism takes time and what Central Banks are doing is trying to buy politicians time. Could arguablys be wasting that time by not doing it fast enough and rb is trying but it is hard and in europe theyre not doing it fast enough. It is another to buy them time and he is another to act that you remove the stimulus to act. Europeans they particular essay because of the way they are falling, has removed some of the urgency from the political arguments around reform, do you buy that . While the politicians can look to the ecb and say you are doing as much as you possibly can and making these commitments and keeping rates really low and they think youre trying to stimulate the economy you probably should have a real opportunity because the stimulus is being done by these. Thank you very much for joining us today, good to get your thoughts. We were just talking about japan, coming up on countdown will have more on the plan for the japanese economy as it faces another setback. Stay with us. Welcome back to countdown. To japan were plummeting oil places and a sales tax increase may be taking a toll on the worlds thirdlargest economy. It stands it had less than half of the boj target. Lets bring in bloombergs who has the details for us in hong kong. Good to see you this friday. And the japanese economy still struggling from that salestax increase, the inflation you mentioned flowing for a third month and poor Consumer Prices rose 2. 9 in october from a year earlier and that is in line with forecasts, but we also saw retail sales fall 6. 4 in october. Than whatre economists were expecting there. They were expecting a half percent decline so not only clear signs that there has been recovery in terms of consumption factory output however we did see unexpected in peace increase, economists were expecting a decrease. Showing signs of resilience and manufacturing exporters. But these latest numbers are further reinforcing forecasts. It is already an unprecedented monetary stimulus. Dropped about 4 10 of a percent there. Japanese equities higher in the data. One of the last glimpses until the election and refreshing that mandate. As you mentioned there the push is there and oil prices compensating the bank of japan governors push to stoke inflation. Thank you for joining us today, all the details on the latest data out of japan running us from hong kong. Just a reminder that inflation figures rake for the eu at 10 00 change just yet. Still to come, designing jewelry for the stars. Welcome back i am anna edwards in london. Oil down a percent yesterday, year to date oil prices down 34 , the u. S. Pumping more oil than the have at any time in the past three decades, knows apprise we are seeing all the news surrounding why peck having an impact on the oil related currencies which is what we have on the screen. These numbers showing the dollar move higher against these currencies and that has been a touch rent that we have seen in the latter part of this week. We also have a really nice story on the terminal about currency market volatility talking about the return of currents he market volatility and not actually pegging this to the oil story actually saying this is around the increase in the dollar and that is seen as continuing. About what they think will happen in 2015 and as they say the dollar will increase in 2015 against all 16 major for an Exchange Trading pairs. So and the next can pay the factory in one. I am anna edwards in london and these are the top headlines. A fource of oil comes to year low after the Worlds Largest producers refrain from cutting their output. They kept their target despite the seat this slump despite the steepest slump in prices. Cameron will lay out his latest plan to cut immigration in a speech that comes a day after he missed the previous pledge to lower it. Willritish Prime Minister say the european arriving in the u. K. Will affect housing for four years. This of the second time he has made a policy speech to counter the rise of the u. K. Independence party which now has two seats in parliament. France and italy will escape immediate punishment over their Budget Proposals for two thousand 15 according to an eu official skeet speaking on condition of anonymity. The commission will warn france and italy that they will have until march to follow through on cutting deficits. We will bring you that News Conference live at 10 00. Wife of this financier could receive 37 million founds in a default settlement, that is the biggest ever seen in an english court. More than 700 Million Pounds at the high court in london. A couple separated after being married for 15 years. Discounts aplenty are being offered across Department Stores but more are plugging their own black friday deals. Manus cranny went to meet this person in the heart of diamond country. Around 200,000. White, londons very own diamond geezer. At the heart of the diamond district designing for the stars. The most enjoyable one was working with beyonce. Her and jayz in the room . Yes. A masterve been craftsman and that just does not happen overnight so are the kind of skills that are involved in putting a diamond together, time and skill . I am passionate about making things perfect like the way they sit and a look effortless. Is on thet ive done backs of stairways. On the shops is sucked thats not where i do my business, upstairs and basements design, service and master cressman chip all the elements that go into creating the Perfect Piece where tradition meets highend. We talk about black friday they want to come and meet us and by different products for them. Budgets can be i watering. Isary Yellow Diamond 200,000. All of the signature compression ring is 25,000 pounds, perhaps even too bling for me. This is very its me not you. Bling for manus cranny, i never thought i would hear the day. Sticking with spending it is black friday as we said and these us says it will be one of the biggest in history for online shopping. Kevin, good to see a we will not all spend 200,000 pounds on a canary Yellow Diamond. How much will be spend . Thee expect this to be Biggest Online spending day ever in the u. K. So we are anticipating about 520 Million Pounds of spending today. Remind us where this comes from . Caroline was talking about amazon and how they were influential and bringing us across this phenomena . Consuming consumers have been soft. Amazon 2010 brought the and youon to the u. K. Can do that for Digital Channels now and get people spending early in the Holiday Season, especially as it is the last payday before christmas so it is a great time and they said last night on tv that consumers are aware that there are good offers and deals to be had. Cyber monday and mega monday, that follows, how does the spending fall between . Ive us some of your insight you even have details on the time of day. Peak to bet the about 7 00 or 8 00 this evening. During the course of the day we are expecting 6000 pounds a second. If we look at cyber weekend as expect it overall we can to see 7000 billion pounds spent online. Today butas biggest half a billion pounds be spend over the weekend. To last yearis because you mentioned 2010 is when they brought this conflict across the atlantic but we did see quite a lot of european retailers talking about this, is it getting bigger every year . Certainly more retailers are jumping on the opportunity to engage with consumers. If you look at the retelling 10 years ago they would not have really known who their customers were in the bricks and mortar environment. But now a lot of data is captured and retailers can connect. We have seen online channels consumers were falling off the streets there were a lot of people out there. But i think early, the two things work hand in hand. It used to be that retailers them as online competition but now theyre working together. Is sending ar that promotion today, it is a smart way of being able to get the consumer into the store because we see it click and collect taking off as well increasingly so it is a good way to engage and get consumers into the store for further purchases. Tell usdoes your data about the speed at which we are seeing shoppers and embracing online channels, how quickly are removing from more traditional Shopping Habits to the online environment . Consumers trust and have confidence in that channel and they see it as safe and secure in a good way to transact. Theres a lot of confidence in the big brands are having success with that. You say 80 to 90 of this activity will take place on debit cards, is that right . Greatts right, we see growth and debit cards. Is there less protection or is that oldfashioned . Its the same, consumers using their debit cards online have a guarantee so if anything goes wrong they have recourse. The payment industry and how it is changing, there are many social media businesses and other players who want to get a piece of the industry that you are in and they want to get into payments and dont necessarily see why if youre a fingerprint you can have a new phone or why you meet need the other intermediate steps along the way. Its competition up there and that is driving innovation and europe in europe. Many of these techniques have more,round 20 years and but that seems to be a tremendous amount of competition making a way for consumers to pay in different ways. Caroline wasnk you telling us earlier about some of the fighting in some supermarket over black friday which sounds unfortunate, perhaps safer to do it online. Thank you for joining us. Jenkins joining us the managing director for u. K. And ireland and europe. For a great film you need more than a great script, you need money. How to finance a feature film from the producer whose first movie opens in the u. K. Tonight. Welcome back time for the company news. Operating cuts to boost the amounts of assets for investors. Ion iron ore mine to make good on the promise that they would become a cash machine for shareholders. Seen as part of a strategy to bolster support after rejecting a merger. For the first time in three years china has departed from japan as the secondbiggest equity market. Climbed up 32 this year and they were briefly the secondbiggest market behind the u. S. After the earthquake in japan sent shares tumbling. The search for a bargain drill , twoons of americans away hours earlier than last year. Over 25 million americans expected to hit the stores or shop online today according to the u. S. U. S. National retail federation. Wondered how independent feature films make it to the big screen . And fail to get financing if they are produced the trouble is to get distribution. A film opens in the u. K. Tonight which tells the remarkable true story from the afghanistan conflict and one of the tell me about the film based on a true story. Storym 2006, it is a true about a group of paratroopers who found themselves stranded in a minefield. Minefieldiet unmarked and the guys were moving from one ridge to another to investigate and do a sniping mission whiteds need to be told . Why did this need to be told . As a producer and look for good stories we felt like there were no british war films about modern conflict whether a rack or afghanistan or the falklands or bosnia, we were doing some research and came across this story and it felt like an amazing story and felt dramatically like an amazing story. You lie oneople who for funding think it was a good enough story . Began findings the story and working with the scriptwriter tom williams and the director to put together a script and we met everyone who is in the minefield that day and talked to them, friends and family and colleagues and put it together and had a script and initially we did crowdfunding on egogo. How did you choose that platform . Is it accidental . Quite billy part accidental, i like indiegogo and they seemed to be a good fit for what we were doing but we were very interested in doing crowdfunding which is a good way to get money but it does also to test your product and in effect we were able to go out there to say this is the film you want to make and see the reaction we got. So you were getting money from people you never wouldve found any other way . Bit like preselling your product, people give you 50 quid and you give them a dvd or signed poster for the chance to meet the director depending on the Different Levels of perks. This is a way of testing the people did want to buy the dvd or bluray or come to the opening night. We had 500 or 600 people who contributed to the platform. You end up with this mosaic of funding dont you . Some of it coming through aged investors, tell us how that mosaic came together. The crowdfunding setaside and small proportion of the so we went to bfi and we also went to the set up a tax efficient way were people can give money to the investors. Meti we went out there and people, worked with people to find people whod be interested in investing in the film we had investments raised from 500 pounds to 500,000 pounds. You found some of this, it wasnt just money some people like the military let you assets, you found in jordan . Initially we look to south africa and morocco and jordan quickly became the place we wanted to film. We started with looking for a location that would look like the dam and afghanistan and it was just fantastic so we found the location and jordan is great. The hurt locker was shot there, zero dark 30 was shot there and we worked with a couple of exec producers who made the kings who hadnd Alec Mckenzie a background in working with jordan and through him we were able to time with the jordan army. They give us helicopters, black cooks for the end extraction seen. Scene. How long ago been working on this because the next two weeks are critical for Financial Success arent they . I dont want to add to your chest stress. It is a long time building up to a two week. Which you rely on heavily to recoup. As a project weve been working on the film for probably three years and from the script to where we shoot, we shot in the summer and just finished editing in the film is out today, we like to cycle the film thes very important and theatrical releases very important so between now and christmas the will before and markets to sell the film and Home Entertainment in the u. K. And dvd sales. See if itou we will stands up against paddington. Aki. Roducer of kaj next in theackdown, newspaper section stay with us. Welcome back to countdown. Just over an hour before the start of equity trading. Here ony Caroline Hyde set and elliott is in tel aviv. What you have for us . When i saw this one i knew this was for you, this is a headline in the newspaper, naked fleeing cops rams jeep into policewoman during a chase. Not headline you see every day here. The police apprehended a man in a car they thought was up to no good and when they did he sped off, knocking over this policewoman and thus ensued a highspeed chase just south of tel aviv during which the Police Officers were firing at the car and shot up the windows and they eventually apprehended the suspect who turned out to be a senior vip from a premier Football Club in israel and when they found him they said he was completely rock naked and police andcers say buck naked Police Officer sate we still dont understand what he was doing in the car. May be driving lessons . Is this the last time we will see that facial hair you have been developing through november . Imafraid snow is not afraid so it is a long enough for me to learn turkish or russian and it occurred to me i was in a basketball game last night and people thought i was russian and i was in the arab area and they thought i was turkish in this mustache opened a lot of doors i did not know would be available. A new international persona. Elliott we will miss it, sort of. Like an old friend. Cameron plans benefits block to stab of the flow of immigrants. He flow ofe immigrants. Became a watched after the u. K. Independence party got their second member of parliament a few weeks ago. This shows that the pledge to limit the number to tens of thousands has not been reached. Different. S up in what have we exported . Or what has the u. S. Exported and we imported. Mayhem because black friday has meant that police have been called out across london and rules are breaking as they struggle to grab tvs and tablets and the deals because tesco opened at midnight, its just chaos. Crashing as well across the board so keep safe everybody. We didnt even get the turkey. Oil falls as opec stands firm and people brace for plummeting prices as they reject calls to cut production. And the crackdown the Prime Minister pledges top new rules on you appear europeans receiving benefits in the u. K. Italy and france could avoid punishment as the European Commission prepares to deliver its verdict and diamonds are a geeks best friend. Why blackare a friday is a sparkling day for business is big and small. Welcome to the second hour of countdown it is just gone 7 00 here in london. New oil and opec refused to yield and the collapse in oil prices having a rippling affect across markets. Yearsude futures to four shavedd shades 10 10 off prices. Asian airlines and airlines and other parts of the world gained as low oil prices helped to reduce fuel costs. Most market fell. Bloomberg has been covering every development at the opec meeting in vienna and he sent off this writeup of what it means for the market. The decision may have been expected but it was also contentious and brave. Not everyone supported the idea of not cutting output and more or less maintaining the status quo. Cut saying it is necessary to reduce output to prevent prices going to 60 a barrel and below and perhaps staying there for a long time and opec decided they can sustain those lower prices if necessary believing they wont be around for a long time in any case. They also hope that perhaps some nonopec producers, shale producers in the United States may not be able to suffer that pain as easily and maybe have to. Xit the market lets get more on the oil new era with the Senior Analyst for bloomberg intelligence. Lets talk the significance of what we are seeing here, i read a note that was quoting Michael Whitner who said it is no longer opec that will be managing the supply side of the market. It is so fundamental that it is hard to overstate, is at the nature of what we have seen here . Yesterday is that opecs share is more important than the level of the price and now that the u. S. Is producing more than it used to do to the shale boom they can export oil also probably so opec for now decided the market share is enough. Long, do we sense in the months ahead that we have a different view . They said they will meet again in the next regular meeting is in june but we cannot completely rule out that there will be another meeting in the meantime of course they will look at the market and on the supply side you have a couple of risks because there was iran and the cents sanctions still going on so there is no agreement about the programs and they cannot export more and nigeria is not out of the woods to have the risk on the supply side and the demand is the biggest thing at the moment very demand in china is still forecasting to grow so it might be that in the meantime markets will affect themselves. Opec clearly thinks other parts of the world will feel the lowerpriced before they too less share first . Producers, russia and venezuela ns . The people who will still prefer opec members like nigeria and venezuela because these countries are highly dependent on oil revenues and a budget strapped it will be difficult for them to find this for the next six months. Moment panting heard in in situation will change june. Their biggest fear is at these low prices and the lack of investment in oil. Also important, it stays there. Investments posted them are very longterm so they that ifgoing to change an oil price was saying is investment are in peril. David cameron will lay out his latest plan to cut immigration in a speech today. The Prime Minister will announce that europeans arriving in the u. K. Should not receive benefits or housing for four years. The u. K. Independence party now has two seats in parliament. France and italy will escape immediate punishments over weaknesses in their Budget Proposal according to an eu officials speaking on the condition of anonymity. Later today the party will warn the leader that they have until march and will face possible sanctions. Black friday used to be a very american event when shoppers went while the day after thanksgiving but not for turkey anymore but for discounts. So this export we have been talking about already this morning causing chaos in the u. K. Complete chaos if you go to youtube right now or the daily mail online you can see pictures of the tonsils and the deals. From los angeles to louisiana and has also hit london and canada. About the abuse and potential police that we see in the United Kingdom that do that it is allt the moment about the desire to get in on these discounts. A lot of money is about to be spent. Retail researchers if they are proof right we will see 1. 5 billion pounds spent today alone that is online and offline which means one Million Pounds every single minute. That means 17,000 pounds just spent right now while i spoke. Are seeing 50 more shops taking part than last year and it is being exported to other firsties so the u. K. Glimpse of this in 2010 when amazon brought it, but it is much safer potentially shopping online. But germanys Conrad Electronics have black week, 14 for samsung. In france you have le black friday, but even supermarket with prices down in france but the at phnom and senegal and even south africa have 50 off in some of their shops. About the growth of online and how crucial is that to the story . Its not going to just be black friday but cyber weekend. I almost feel like black friday will become redundant, of course it is named black friday because it is the day after thanksgiving when retailers are meant to go from the red, or loss, to profit because you lure in the shoppers. 22 uptick in Online Transactions expected this year. Xbox games and beats headphones across the board and amazon has been doing it all week but tom lewis is doing the same. This time last year john lewis had 14 times higher mobile transactions than ever before. People are getting on their phones and potentially buying more. Rationaleout the because last time we talked a lot about the retailers that did well with the ones that got that Pricing Strategy right and the ones that did not do well with the ones that didnt. Added this phenomena run discounting this far ahead from the Holiday Season how does the logic work . Such a pertinent question because this is where alarm bells are starting to ring, are we just watching the appetite for discounts for the entire season. Offering 22 off everything like we are seeing at some stores even the smartest stores like nichols which has highend goods is having 25 . Will youart doing that cannibalize your own sales, many are saying black friday could be read friday because the discounts are so steep that you are not making a profit that you leeward everyone into. As anason i only do it instore offer is they want you to go when and by a television and then by something else. If youre everyone else and diving on the potential discounts you are at risk of making everyone feel they want to buy at discount and not the rest of christmas in with a terrible problem of discounting to early and then being in the red. On blackxt guest friday as we take the temperature of Consumer Confidence in the u. S. And europe, it is still about watching the next big move from the central bank. The eaton bank manager. Welcome back to countdown. Black friday might be an interesting take on Consumer Confidence in the u. S. It is the Central Banks we need to watch. Thats what that eaton Bank Managing director says. Lets pick up on this idea of black friday being an interesting take on the u. S. Consumer. Its running pretty strong at the moment. It shows the u. S. Economy is improving thats why theyve been talking about removing quantitative easing and an organization of Interest Rates, i think its interesting to note that are a both good purchases by the u. S. Consumer have improved so i think it does feed into the conversation around black friday from the sense of how it impacts retailers who should be having a good time selling these goods. That is one of the key items people are looking to buy. We should see a lot of footfall and a lot of activity in that seems to be what we are hearing and it continues to provide evidence that the consumer is experiencing a genuine recovery in the u. S. And the economy is set for strong growth. Might benk there shoppers betting a little bit more in the shops or online because after spent a little bit less but the lowell order price Lower Oil Price now down 30 in the headline numbers, is that good for the u. S. Economy because it boosts the consumer . Its good for the u. S. Economy because it is the consumer by think its interesting to reflect on what that means for the rest of the world, you mentioned the Central Bank Policies still being important and you look at the eurozone yesterday with weak inflationary numbers and an acceleration of deflation and the eurozone authorities dont really welcome a weakening of the oil price. Are in bothhorities areas of the world where we are trying to prompt more inflation so good for the u. S. And the consumer and over the journey of 2015 as we continue to see wasting oil prices that will be good for the Global Economy but it is a mixed picture. You mentioned how this ties into the ecb thinking, trying to fight off the specter of deflation. We will get Inflation Numbers later on today the estimate that is out there. What can and what should the ecb do and when . Reallyeem to be moving to a little bit of a pageant between mr. Draghi and his colleagues between the Buddhist Bank and the German Authority bundesbank and the german authorities. The ecb has stated it were to increase the size of the Balance Sheet and to do it quickly but has not happening quickly and it needs to in simple terms. We are really approaching that crucial juncture where the bazooka really has to come out. I think markets have been patient we are convinced of the dialogue from draghi but we need to see action. Sovereign bondn buying and is the bazooka come out in december . Our excitations are we are waiting for the new year and i think there are other elements in the backdrop including from the perspective of overall Global Growth the weakening oil price is good and the peoples bank of china announcement last weekend show the chinese authorities are taking seriously their responsibility to prompt growth in china and then the election in japan on the assumption that the ldp gets a reasonable backs authority in a the third arrow of elements that we have not seen yet and if we start to see that come through that would allow ecb the time to wait for the new year so of course that is playing out as we expect. All this talk about further measures from the ecb acting to prevent deflation has clearly pushed down yields it seems not of week goes by where we dont talk about another new record low on some software and bond yield somewhere, how low can they go . They are not much higher than japan and when you contrast the way that japan has acted on quantitative easing and the ecb has talked about them mostly how low can those yields go . Question, theyod can go lower but there is clearly a limit just mathematically. The japanese have been here before, there was a quantitative easing problem a number of years ago and as we are all aware japan has essentially had 20 years of poor Economic Growth so the japanese are looking to andve after a long journey many are hoping the european authorities can learn from with the japanese have done. They are certainly at the extreme end of Monetary Policy experimentation and if it can grow lower from here as many people have been saying for quite some time a rising rate environment is a fear but it has been something difficult to engineer so far. Do you see that environment coming and if so tell me about your strategy . You mentioned the funds that in just invest in junk grade in europe so how does in fact those types of investments. If your sterlingbased investor or a dollarbased investor we can say rising rates are on your agenda next year so we to find an instrument that will not decline in Capital Value with the rising rates. Of the reasons why business is so positive on leverage loans typically they traded the spread and it resets on a 4560 day calendar. Of course it coincides with the fact that we have this relatively low growth stable to low Interest Rate environment which is good for credit and visa credit and we prepare to skew to the u. S. When the economy is stronger but there is a number of interesting names. Thank you for joining us, now the managing director. Coming up on countdown, judgment day for italy and france. Live at brussels next with the key line to look out for. I am and london these are the top headlines. Lowtouched a four your after the Worlds Largest producers refrain from cutting their output. Opec leaders in vienna decided not to cut production despite the steepest slump in prices since the global recession. David cameron will lay out his latest plan to cut immigration in a speech. Willins Prime Minister propose that europeans arriving in the u. K. Should not receive Welfare Benefits or state housing for four years. This the second time the cabin has made a policy speech to counter the rise of the u. K. Independence party which is two seats in parliament. The estranged wife of chris hoehns to receive 337 Million Pounds. That is the biggest seen in an english court. Had a totalhusband assets that totaled 700 Million Pounds. They separated after being married for 15 years. France and italy will escape immediate punishment for the Budget Proposals in 2015 according to an eu official speaking on the condition of an animated anonymity. Follow through on cutting deficits or face possible sanctions and we will bring you that News Conference live at 10 00 a. M. Lets get more on those budget reviews with bloombergs in who joins us from brussels. How the commission should deal with countries who break the budget rules, explain this to us. The European Commission today is going to tell all the eurozone countries what it takes of its budget for next year. What were hearing is that it will tell france and italy that the budget are still not good enough. Theyre still not doing enough reform and still not enough to cut the deficit quickly enough. They willteresting as give them a stay of execution until march. What we would normally expect at they woulds that find these countries but we are going to wait to see if they will follow through on their promises. That will not go down well with so what happens in march if we dont see any followthrough pledges to cut deficits, what will happen in march . Process willen the begin that will be unprecedented in that has never happened before. Were talking aliens of pounds of fines. Billions oflking pounds of fines. Portugal, greece and ireland are saying we had to go through all of this so why should not france and italy have to do the necessary reforms as well and be told to do them now . U. K. Prime minister is expected to speak later today on immigration, how is that messaging going down in brussels . Certainly stopping any talk of quotas will go down very well. Its unfair to recognize karen thought that was a fight he would never win. Hes talking restricted welfare payments as well and that will not be an easy argument to win either. Im sorry that is all we have time for, back into truman its. Minutes. Wo welcome back. Lets take a look at Foreign Exchange markets. On oil seen 30 lower price so far this year. We saw substantial moves in yesterdays trading session. Oil down by 8 at one point. It is having an impact on Foreign Exchange markets. Thatok at the currencies usually have exposure. We can see that has been played out. Some of the movement we have seen, the strengthening of the u. S. Dollar has been around the oil price. The dollar has been gaining around these currencies. I was reading these interesting we see aying, fundamental change in what opec is doing on these markets. It is interesting to see how long it takes markets to get their heads around that. An interesting story about the return of volatility to markets. Not actually around the commodity story but around where people think the dollar is going to go. An interesting story says strategists are expecting the dollar to increase in 2015 against the 16 major Foreign Exchange players. Is except for mexico, the norwegian krone, and the south american want. It seems people are talking about a return to volatility and foreignexchange markets. There are no less than three nationwide votes facing the swiss this weekend, including one on the tax regime. If you work in finance, it might help you affect you. Reason the a billionaires live in geneva. Money. They can take advantage of a flat tax that helps duck major costs. They generated around 750 in 2012. This can mean tax rates of less than 1 . How they wanted to stop. If the city vote for the referendum, could the wealthy fully . Flee . Althoughlf the wealthy most to other parts of switzerland. Swiss banks said exodus could damage the economy as a result, while the chamber of commerce says thousands of jobs could go. Ofre are still plenty options. The u. K. , belgium, and portugal are just some countries offering tax breaks to foreign millionaires. That is one of the votes switzerland is going to be undertaking this weekend. There are two more. One of the others surround gold. We will take a short break. When we come back we will talk about how much gold the Swiss National bank can be expected to keep. That is one question swiss voters are going to be asked. Stay with us. Welcome back. Three votes for the swiss to consider on sunday. One of them is on changing the es for swiss gold results reserves. Lets welcome the head of the Swiss Institute thomas who is in zurich. Swiss institute, who is in zurich. Remind us why this vote is taking place. Its basically because a couple years ago the Swiss National bank sold quite a bit of gold, and in hindsight people are thinking it wasnt such a good idea, and they would keep their gold reserves at at least 20 . Is there logic around keeping gold reserves to back up a currency and the 21st century . Why is switzerland talking about this at this particular time . Isfor an economist it difficult to justify, but gold has some appeal to it. A large share of the population is still thinking, this cannot be too bad. Gold is something physical, we can touch it. Gold than wemore are used to . Of course it is an asset like many other assets. Mobility. Raining the from an economist point of view it is probably not such a good idea. I know they talked about how the impact of a yes vote would be quite spectacular in markets. How likely is a yes vote, and how likely would we see any spectacular reaction if that should come through . Its difficult to predict. At the moment it doesnt look like it would get through. We can expect the gold price a bit. E affected quite there would be a substantial amount of gold, and that could lead to further expectations. Tell us how much gold they would have to buy. I was reading there would have to buy 10 of the Global Annual production of gold until 2019. That sounds like a hefty amount. We are probably talking about 100,000 tons of gold. It probably would not be done overnight. That is an order of magnitude that is substantial. What is the implication for currency markets . Floorhis play into the the swiss like to keep . Tell us how this works into the strategy around gold reserves. Large share of the Balance Sheet in gold, they are putting a leash on the central bank to act. In that case it will become more difficult for the central bank to be credible. Its like a dog put on a leash. It can still bark, but whether it can still bite, its not that clear. At least the biting will not be difficult. 7 30 nine here in london. A little black friday magic for you. In london. 7 39 bobbi white designs jewelry. We went to meet him in the heart of the diamond district. Been working on a few pieces. This one is a worth 200,000 is about 200,000. He is at the heart of the capital diamond district, designing for the stars. The most enjoyable one was beyonce. Amazing. Both of them . I spoke to beyonce a little bit more. You have become a master class meman. That doesnt happen overnight. He type of skill it doesnt take a long time. I am passionate about making things perfect. I like the way stones fit. It looks like they are effortless. Stairways and little offices. Its what you see on the streets. Thats not where i do my business. Its in basements and all that. Design, service, and master craftsmanship. All of the elements that go into creating the Perfect Piece. For black friday, our customers might start online. Then they want to come meet us. The budget can be i watering. Canary Yellow Diamonds. Watering. Eye that is 200,000 pounds. That is too much for me. I dont think i can necessarily get away with that. That is not me. I dont think so. 7 41 here in london. London mayor Boris Johnson is in singapore for trade talks this week. He is also vying for Asian Investment in tech for the u. K. L of the joining us is a team member who has been tasked with finding for the startup. What are the expectations, what of boris and team . We have 10 companies in singapore. It is a market exploration. We are looking for new customers. We are looking for Partnership Existing Financial Services institutions. We are looking for local partners who will provide us access to the asian marketplace. I know that some governments in asia want to start up their own or have ambitions to start up their own tech cities to to their doors. Why would they want to attract rather than to generate business where they are . We have incredible firms who are ready for international , particularly in the area of financing, Foreign Exchange transfer, and remittance firms, and Even Companies with bitcoin innovations. We are bringing these companies to International Market laces, and they present an incredible array of Investment Opportunities for Foreign Investors and foreign firms. Infocom setting up an office to learn and benefit from our incredible ecosystem. At think we have talked to some of them. You coat lead the implementation of level 39, which some people havent heard about. Its europes Largest Technology accelerator fund. To big is the sector going become . How much does it sit alongside the traditional financial sector, and how much does it replace it . This is the question those in traditional banking are trying to grapple with when they work out whether they need to embrace this new technology or fight it. No question we all need to embrace technology to advance our businesses, whether they are a big incumbent bank or a new company starting out. Level 39 was established a couple years ago. It has been incredible incredibly successful. We categorize and it too broad broad areas. Two the Financial Software and trading platforms we are all aware of and the emergent syntax. Those syntax fintech. These are the peer to peer lending platforms, crowd funding, nude data new Data Analytics companies, and these provide an alternative to incumbents. How do you think the giants of the finance world are reacting to these new startups . Which is the older names that are adapting quickly and embracing some of these new businesses, either investing in them or buying them or trying to start their own . Where do you see things going . There are a great number of Financial Services institutions in the u. K. , Global Companies who are embracing this movement of tech lead transportation transformations. You will see many of them start up their own thank you bidders. The barclays accelerator, for example. Start up their own incubators. Many have launched their own funds for investing in the sector. There is a lot of curiosity and engagement with the startup sector. It wont have escaped your attention some people have questioned why boris has gone to asia. He has gone to attract money tech and Technology Businesses in london. From somebody in cap boris, can you explain a little bit cap , and youcamp boris explain a little bit . Can you defend him . We are here to champion British Technology companies. Leads, it is ah great opportunity for investors. This is about showcasing. It is creating trade partnerships and Encouraging Companies coming from singapore to join us in london. Getting about creating a deep tie between a key trade partner in london and the u. K. Thanks for joining us. You are looking at the live shot of the city of london, where equities are set to open in about 10 minutes. Little change. The ftse 100 suggesting we will have a slightly weaker open, but not a great deal. We will be back with a look at what is ahead for the trading day. Welcome back. Time for company news. Rio tinto has cut spending to boost the amount of cash it is returning to investors. The secondbiggest miner delayed plans to approve a 1 billion iron ore mine to make good on the ceos promised the company would become a cash machine for shareholders. Themove is seen as part of strategy to bolster support for investors after rejecting a merger bid from glencore. For the first time in three years china has surpassed japan as the secondbiggest equity market. Chinas market capitalization climbed after a 33 increase this year. China was briefly the second is market behind the u. S. In 2011 after an earthquake in japan sent shares tumbling in tokyo. The shares true man the stores drew millions away as they offer discount earlier than ever. Macys and target opened their doors at 6 p. M. Kicking off the biggest Holiday Season in three years. London. Nine minutes ago go until european stock markets open up. Caroline joins us to have a look at the stocks we are watching. Should we start at energy or holidays . Lets start with energy. The german utility could be two point 5ts at billion euros. They could be selling them to Macquarie Group or the kuwait sovereign wealth fund. The Supervisory Board will meet on friday to approve the deal is what people are telling the wall street journal. Are they missing or not . Not in terms of profit. Another loss. D they promised next year will be more profitable, but what i really thought was interesting is digging into the numbers. What they term and economic crisis. In particular they say france is at the midst in the midst of an economic crisis. Geopolitical tensions have been hurting. They saw a drop of more than 5 in volume over the course of the year. France is struggling once again and belgium. Are talking about raising customers from fastgrowing markets. You arehe other topics covering this morning is retail. Black friday clearly taking off in europe in a way that we saw some extent. Amazon brought this over in 2010. It is taking off. It does seem to be taking off even more this year, doesnt it . Complete chaos. In london we have had a number of police and tescos and asked s, which opened at midnight. You have to buy a cheap television and hopefully by some ham while you are at it. In manchester they have had seven stores having to call police out at the moment. Clearly we have imported the chaos that goes on in america as well as the deals. Livetime last year i was in london, and there was quite a bit of tugging, pushing, pulling , grabbing. There were cheerleaders. All of the shop assistants were in fancy dress. As they went front and center, adopting the walmart spirit, they put it on the map last year, now 50 of stores are copying. John lewis did it last year. We have online retailers, 20 off everything for cyber we can. Harvey nichols has got money off today. Lurere going to try to people in with the idea of a deal early on. What is interesting is germany is adopting this. That was an agreement an ingredient last year. I think so. Claimed to bring it over, but suddenly it has gone viral. We have the Electronics Store in germany. A have black week. In france you have the Supermarket Chain offering deals. They are exporting it to their own stores and other countries. Vietnam, senegal, colombia. Even south africa have got 50 off. This really has gone global. I think black friday is going to be redundant. I think it is going to be cyber we can. We are all weekend. We are all going to spend more on monday. We spoke to somebody who said between 7 00 and 8 00 this evening and the u. K. Are going to be the peak time. The jury is still out as to whether discounting this early is going to help retailers. Any analysts are trying to read the flag. Tomany analysts are trying read the flag. Could it the red could it be read friday . Friday . Thank you so much. On the move is next. Francine will be speaking to the ceo of lego group as it opens its headquarters. Will it be happy christmas for the largest toy company. European equities could be a little sluggish at the start. Stay with us. Welcome to on the move. I amine lacqua Francine Lacqua in london. Here is what were watching this friday morning. The crude plunge continues. The opec meeting ends without an agreement to cut production. To cutec leaders pleaded production. Others want to wage a price war against the u. S. Headache. Owflation investors will be watching as the measure is forecast to reach the lowest level since 2009. Mario draghi will be watching as he gears up for a similar debate at the meeting. Crackdown. Britains Prime Minister will be dealt his plan to cut immigration in the u. K. Up, what doesats it mean for markets and europes future . What we are watching this morning. Equity markets in the u. S. Closing early today at 1 p. M. Eastern. It is thanksgiving weekend. Markets here in europe are just opening up. A little bit of a mixed bag. Lets check with caroline for a picture of this trading day. We are all when focusing on deals. In tescos people being surrounded by police because of the scuffles going on across the country. Interesting it is the day the u. K. Consumer confidence actually fails to improve, missing analyst estimates, worried about the economy