Rivals. Good morning and welcome to countdown. I am mark barton. Is 6 00. Me in london stocks soaring after the bank of japan voted to increase the target for monetary expansion. They 54 for an expansion. Is our economist from tokyo. 32 whober is 3, 3 out of saw this coming. I thought at best, the boj would be telegraphing actions down the road. The Inflation Numbers were disappointing. Paul krugman for the new york in japan, is talking about the need for them to take action. The way stocks are reacting suggest people are enthusiastic. We have the problem with structural reform. Nomics. Waiting for abe boj policy moves are good. They lubricate the process. Make the road easier. We are waiting for the government to do its part. What does that tell you about where the bank of japan is against inflation targets . , corsi pi at 1. 7 . I at 1. 7 . Their are realizing the inflation is not the problem. It is a symptom. Re was a lot of concern about the future of japan and asia in general. It is being reminded that great for Monetary Policy to pump money into the system. Making they about economy more entrepreneurial and innovative. Increasing productivity. Have not seen a lot of that from prime and. A lot of talk but not a lot of action. Lets talk about sony. Releasing quarterly numbers. Billion. Ss, ¥136 against an estimate of ¥193 billion. They are talking about the smartphone outlook. Cutting a lot of their forecast, it seems. The bar for good news in japan is low these days. Develop argue this is a good news day. They are a microcosm of where japan finds themselves. They were a want they are a once great product. They are kind of an Insurance Company and bank. They dont make much people want. They are coming up against headwinds. The wiki and has been a godsend, but they need to innovate and hasructure the week yen been a godsend but they need to innovate and restructure. Much. Nk you very joining us from tokyo. They are maintaining their overall for your forecast. Year forecast. From Consumer Electronics to banking. Biggest bank in france, earnings crossing the bloomberg terminal. They have beat estimates. Income basis net rising 11 in the Third Quarter to 1. 3 5 billion euros. The 1. 35beating average estimate. Fixede had a rebound in income trading as well. Facing april commission in 2015 on dollar clearing operations facing a prohibition in 2015 on dollar clearing operations. Our correspondent from paris. She spoke to the cfo earlier. What did you learn . Morning. It seems to be pretty confident that the largest bank will be able to bounce back. After the record loss of nearly 6 billion in the second quarter. Earnings are beating estimates. Despite the fact that next year, they are going to face a dollar clearing man in the u. S. Dollar clearing ban in the u. S. They have benefited from an increase in fixed income. And drop in provisions for bad loans. One thing to look at is the italian unit. Provisions. Presents i asked about the performance of the Third Quarter and the outlook for european growth. Have a listen. It is on the back of growth in fixed income. Also, the specialized businesses. Insurance securities. Also noteworthy is the cost of risk, which went down 9 . We have closed two deals. Anotherr in france and in poland. Finally, a Balance Sheet that stands rocksolid. Your ratio is 10. 1 . Stressed test. B but most of your fine with uncounted in the stress test. G what you see is what you et 10. 1 includes everything. It includes the acquisitions we id. What we have now is a 10. 1, which includes everything. We feel very comfortable. The french, italian, and german economies are slowing down. What are your concerns . Ifif you look at indicators like the investment going on for structural reforms, that is negative territory. That is an indicator you would like to see pick up. If you look at the bellwether of the banks, the pickup is not materializing. One of the things that could be instrumental it is focused, a contingent on the indicator of investment for growth picking up. That could be really working well. We are reviewing the process, which is ongoing. How this can work. We will be participating. In supporting growth going forward. The french revenues are down 2. 2 . What are your concerns about the French Economy . Yeah, of course, france is faced by low interest rates. Which is something that is of course weighing on it. On top of that, there is regulation with respect to commission since 2014. You have to focus on your clients and operational efficiency. Reap the benefits of the stringent risk management. Thats what we continue to do. The cfo is bnp. Saying that the cost of risk is down what they are seeing risk in europe, especially in italy and france, the home market. Fell by more than 4 . They are waiting for a waiver in the u. S. To continue serving clients. Will talk more about this in the next half hour. They give a much. Thank you very much. From banks to beer. The thirdquarter numbers. Earnings before interest tax. 4. 75 billion. Below estimates. For 5. 03ates were llion dollars. It seems the organic Revenue Growth number has been weaker than estimated in the third. The estimate was for 4. 4 . Missing that by some margin. Volume growth down 2. 6 . Estimate was up. It seems for organic growth and owth, they have missed estimates. They are saying the u. S. Industry volume trend is improving. The boot is l the brazil growth is improving to read on that russia and the slow growth in europe. Is those parts of the world that analysts have been concerned about. Who will keep an eye on that when it opened in just oh opens in just under two hours. Conversation on twitter. Tell us what you want more of. We have been encumber station with will it be trick or treat for the u. K. Housing market . That subject and many more, including the latest news by the bank of japan. Moves by the bank of japan. Time for todays company news. A threeday rally for the Biggest Smartphone maker, samsung. Market is anticipating restructuring. A criminal anticipation anticipated for rigging currency markets. Costsnder says the legal are jumping 600 Million Dollars. Thats on top of 950 Million Dollars in legal charges revealed earlier. They are cooperating with regulators in the u. S. As was the u. K. And switzerland. Sand chart stancharts stock has fallen after why the boj surprised everyone when everybody but three economists surveyed i bloomberg were you one of the three . Koroda teams to have is timing right. They have declared asset purchase on the same week the fed signaled the end of qe. Like mobileseems devaluation pressures are here. Will be talking about divergence and centralbank policy for some time. Is there value in surprise when it comes to these things . If so, the ecb will be less behind. Will be we have been talking wehether qe with have been talking about whether t. Will come from the ecb the core scenario pricing in the markets is the governing council will want to see the effect of the measures being supplemented. They were announced in september. The effect of name beta negative interest rates. Dataite obvious from the we are seeing, the decline in business sentiment, even in the strongest and largest economy, that the eurozone is slipping back into contraction. These are not the same force us that drove the crisis in the early years. There is a clear lack of momentum and demand. Inflation of stimulus. That means the euro is at a risk for a second stagnation. It seems that japan will reach its inflation goals . They reduce their forecast for 2015 to 1. 7 . From 1. 9 . It has reduced that forecast. Hitt unlikely they will that goal . That is a real question. The only thing we do know is the bank of japan has the psychological advantage against other banks. Ahead with more asset purchases. That will help to give me yen. This weaken the yen. Will help to weaken the yen. You cantion is how much improve the competitiveness of japanese exporters. The questions the boj faces is, are there enough assets on the market to buy . The boj hast been struggling to buy enough assets. It is any of that liquidity going to reach the real economy . Or will this be a circular flow of assets between the pension fund and the boj . Without the cash having an impact on demand . The Monetary Policy is one of only three arrows. They are firing at the economy. Are you underground or overwhelm the . Ed . Underwhelmed. Defector the fact that there has been no buzz about this for some. Time like they now makes abenomics is going backwards. It seems there is too much financial repression. The impact on growth, gdp yield we have eurozone inflation data today. Hold your breath. That andiscuss all of more after the break. Welcome back to countdown. 6 23 and london 6 23 in london. What you make of the bank of england taking a tougher stance on leverage at the banks . Is that going to have a big impact on the Banking Sector . Maybe they are less able to lend than they want to be . The bank of england well launch will lunch leverage requirements this coming after the stress test, which were more lenient. U. K. sll highlight the leading position in europe. I dont think this will have Immediate Impact on the Banking System, but it will have an impact on the growth prospects. Leveraging any financial markets. It will constrain credit growth in the real economy by limiting bank ability to take on risk. In the context of the inflation cycle right now, especially with house Price Inflation slowing down, it will help to limit those worries about Credit Linked to Holding Interest rates low for so long. It will allow the bank of england to focus on the deflation pressures. Matters, centralbank it seems as if the gdp number endingied in being qe qe. The three elements that were missing in the statement are what defined the perception this was hawkish. As the fed moves toward a conditional forward guidance, anch means there is expectation contingent on the the rather than a guidance, signal the market has a tolerance second thing is, you are right. Be tooem to not concerned about the decline in financial inflation expectations. Suggests thellar fed is less concerned about this. The fed earned asset purchases without any note for the recent volatility. It suggests the markets are more conservative less concerned about managing risk. Briefly, lets go full circle and touch on the ecb and bank of japan. Weve see a resurgence of concerns about whether we are turning japanese, that same old argument . Absolutely. There are two major points that with a fine the fundamental argument. One came from the stress test and another from the governing council statement. The first time in its history, the ecb dropped its statement and the Banking System is unprofitable. Thank you so much. Lena. We will be back in two minutes. Welcome back. I am mark barton. But look at the fx check. There is only one currency in town, the japanese yen, after the boj increase monetary stimulus. The yen fallen by 1. 6 . It has touched a lowest level since 2008. The government bonds for japan also rising. Boj says they will expand the Monetary Base by ¥80 trillion a year. Economistsof 32 predicted an increase in asset purchases. That has not been confirmed. That is report a report to be due to a newspaper. It is all about the yen, trading at the lowest level since january, two thousand eight after the boj unexpectedly increased unprecedented monetary stimulus. I am anna edwards. These are the top stories. The army and barking of us who in burkina faso to says it has taken power. Largest cottond producer in Subsaharan Africa and the fifth largest gold producer. Agreed withit has ukraine on supplying natural gas. Talks overered resuming delivery of gas, trying to avoid a repeat of the winter fuel crises of previous years. Tougher s bracing for debt finance ratios. The largest mortgage provider, lloyds, warms the warns the move could have an impact on the cost of home loans. And a trick for harry potter cans. Fans author, jk rolling, has published a new story just in time for halloween. They have reported results. Bank acceptedest a temporary ban. Bmp is still waiting to hear if the u. S. Department of labor will grant a waiver that will allow it to continue serving clients after sentencing. We spoke to the ceo. With respect to the settlement, we agree with u. S. Authorities. There are an element series of elements that we have to work on. We are moving on several of them. We have meetings with the regulators to track progress. All of these irons are in the fire and progressing. If you genetic it get the waiver, do you have a plan b if you dont get the waiver, do you have a plan b . There is of course the defective one year. On energy and commodities, we do one year dollar clearing for that part. That is the major thing we are doing. That is progressing well. Did you find another bank to do the clearing . With respect to the clearing, there are several sites. Sides. Are you going to progressively abandoned oil and gas financing activity after what happened . The end objective is all the dollar clearing will happen through bnp in new york. We have put in place control mechanisms for that. That should settle the matter once that is implemented. Will that mean a slowdown of International Expansion for bnp . I think that will be speculation. We said acquisitions are part of how we want to we deploy capital. If they give us that it will mass, or can give us skills or access to clients like what we did when we took over part of rbss equity activities, if we can get them at the appropriate point, that is what we like to do. We are pleased we have done those. The rest will be speculation. There have been some changes in top management. Impact of thehe fines on bonuses for top management . That, for thet to people this year, there will be a review of the activities and basically that will be the basis for the bonus. There should be no further ramifications. It has been a brutal quarter for airlines. Economic woes and concerns over ebola shaking earnings. Can aig fare any better . Here with a look at the numbers as caroline hyde. What are we looking at from aig . They seem to have flown to this turbulence pretty well. They are the owner of British Airways. Also the owner of the discount provider in spain. Francee have seen air suffer crises of their own making, we have had external political crises. Ukraine and syria. Ebola to add to that as well. All the time, we have these older generations of airlines facing competition from the middle east and discounters. Have operating profits set to rise by a third. Sales set to increase by 8 . What we want is the target. Will we see willie walsh stick to the target that he will see half a billion euros more in terms of earnings next year . How has it maintained its discipline . He has been forthright that he has been disciplined. He last earning statement, says he has been a model of cost cutting. The slashed 3000 jobs over spanish unit they took over. Steer througho that entered a profit in the last quarter. They struck more modest settlements with some of the pilots and ground staff as they went on with the pain negotiations. They got the negotiation tactics right, unlike air france. They have added capacity at British Airways. We see air france ticket away capacity. British airways is adding it. No wonder the shares have outperformed the most of the rivals. Only ryan air has been them beaten them. It will be interesting to see what they have to say about oil prices as well. Airlines luck the in the prices we have seen . Ebola is having an impact on the sector, even if it is psychological. Peoples booking behavior. This is what is striking. He has pushed it to one side. He has stated, it is not impacting us in any way. They stopped flying to sierra leone. Said that was more a question of demand. Not a demand of district aestion of concern not question of concern about the spread of the epidemic. His outlook for the Fourth Quarter . Can they steer through this . Rd that thea economy is going to be pretty thick. Some say by and others sell. So far they can do no wrong. November is upon us. The mustache may only be around for 30 days, but the beard has been making a comeback. We went to the home of facial hair to ask in expert ask an expert. Everybody wants to try if they have never done it. You spend your life shaving your beard off. It is something for everyone to try because it has become so popular. Im the master barber here. It is a bit of a myth that having a beard is a lady version of grooming lazy version of grooming. It takes a lot of work to keep the weird looking sharp. You need to slim down the sides and chin. Do it justs to before a holiday. That way, you come back from work with a reasonably good coverage. Naturally, you always get a reaction. The reaction to over grooming is to go the other way. Groom out and thicker. November, the general consensus is you start the month with a clean shave and then you have a month to grow it. In real terms, that means you will not get enough hair. I am all about cheating. Maybe start growing a little bit before and then have a full shave everywhere else. I suppose subconsciously what you are saying is, i can do what i like. I am free of the shackles of corporate kind of image. Plenty of tips for you there, mark. [laughter] the advice is to grow one when you go away for a week. Would it so happens i am go away for what we look like during your return . You can watch two for to find out. Sonys sales. Well have the answer for you next. It has been a busy week in tech. Twitter, samsung, and sony reporting earnings. Joining us now is an associate managing director. Thank you for coming in. What about sony . It is the story of a company with two halves. One is the handsets and the other is the games. What do you make of it . The headline figure, a 1 billion net loss, sounds ghastly. That is actually all technical. They put in a new cfo. He is going through the Balance Sheet. It is part of a general cleanup job the company is doing. If you exclude 176 billion in writedowns, this was a good performance from them. Overall guidance for the company the evidence, they are going to beat it. Two outstanding performances. Before your forecast for the margin is about 5 the for your forecast for the margin is about 5 . Is nothat the quarter great for video games, that is good. We Services Business wouldnt know this and the u. K. Or u. S. That they rely on Financial Services for the bottom line. That is the case and it is doing well. Can it translate this of your superiority over microsoft into bottom line . That sufferssiness from the week again is the gaming division. Summoning the parts that go into the ps for are priced in dollars. Many of the parts that going to the ps4 are priced in dollars. They can only sell it for one of the two systems. 4 isgood news, the ps outselling the xbox. The internal economics is improving by the day. That came through in these numbers the first time. We saw the benefit of sony winning market share. What about the handset is this . Were ad that they competitor was heralded as number three. That only lasted eight hours pretty numbers were questioned by motorola. Guy in charge of that part of the business. Is it failing to make traction . A 5 market share. Sony has a 3 market share and shrinking. The sales in unit terms are up your on year youre on your. Year. R on getting less behind, the economys work against them. They get squeezed out three. They face the same process problem in the tv business. They have managed to become a high and tv producer. They are doing well. That side is profitable. They will have to do the same on the mobile. Forget about the rest. See if they can set up the production side to deal with the numbers. They have done it in tv. If they can do it in mobile, they have a break. Otherwise, the same story spinning up the electronics sharp and other bellwethers for the japanese Consumer Electronics industry. It is a very cutthroat business. Net profit forecast unchanged. It cut sales forecast. What is the takeaway for sharp . You would like to see them cut their sales forecasts. As a parts maker, you dont really mind if you are not selling as many if you are profitable. A lot of your costs are variable. If you can manage your production right and sell at a high margin, that is what you want to do. That appears to be what sharp is achieving. They have customers like apple and xiaomi. Between the two of them, they are doing well. Both to the chinese low and companies, because they have a way to keep Energy Consumption down. The biggest problem for a chinese consumer, your batteries dont last long. You can sharp screen, get further. They sell sharp screens to them. Apple loves them because of the hiring the display. They have a great business line. They have fantastic engineers and bad financial managers. They appear to be melding the two. We talked about u. S. Tech giants. Investors in the technology sector. Is there a role for activist investors . Think it is quite a difficult one. The currency say, has gone from 100 to 75 in a negative direction, it is quite difficult. Anybody who told sony to do this or that when the and was at 75 is looking at 110. And thinking maybe that was not so good. Pressure on sony to divest of their financial Services Business. If they had done that, they may not have been around today. They kept it and are still in the game. Activist investors, the macro story is so complex. There are so many moving parts. There are other things to do if you are an activist investor. Thank you very much for joining us. The managing director at pill and smithers associates. We are going to look at the newspapers, next. A movie review. Turner. Welcome back. I am anna edwards. I am mark barton. 6 54. Newspaper time. Im going to talk about a piece in the guardian. Apparently, british food is now taken seriously in france. Said but chirac masala. That tico that is the bestselling meal. It is all about driving up sales in i really love that paris. Think that is such a wonderful thing to do. Unfortunately, the french need good food fast. Cheese company seeing cheeses, british cheeses, flying off the shelves. And lemon curd. They like british ones apparently. Up 63 this year. In our household, the british ones very suspicious. A brush with greatness. The new mike lee film. About the painter, turner. A lovely tweet from jim sheridan. He said, i hate mike lee. He makes a depressing movie and wins all the words. The actor won the best actor award at cannes. In the is also times. They are reporting booming trade. Making starched collars as far as the u. S. Any bartons, household in the barton household. I can see you jesse for dinner. Dressing for dinner. Let us know what you think of the show. These are our twitter addresses. The bank of japan unexpectedly boost asset purchases. Paribas profits. A full interview including the fine it is paying to the united states. With respect to the we agreed with u. S. Authorities, there is a series that we have to work on. Period will run until 2016. All of these irons are in the fire. Breaking now. Rbs earnings. Wasnt a stunner for the banks chief executive. Welcome back. This is countdown. It has just gone 7 00 and london. Getting numbers from rbs and iag. Rbs numbers. Lets start with rbs, because the u. K. Lender which is owned by the government, by the taxpayer in the u. K. , it has posted its first thirdquarter profit in three years. Net income to the Third Quarter 896 Million Pounds. Analysts were estimating 582 Million Pounds. The company has beaten. It has released 801 Million Pounds in impairments. The bank did warn us about that in september. The company is on track to achieve its capital targets. We know it was above the level required by the eba. Its at 10. 8 . The leverage ratio, we will know more when the bank of england announces its rules. Its leverage ratio is 3. 9 , that could be below the required 5 . It is on track to achieve its capital targets. It says uk and ireland are showing signs of growth. The government owns ulster bank in ireland. Will it hold on to ulster bank . Its impairment trend better than anticipated. Big news. What the company is doing is cutting back Investment Banking operations. It is focusing on domestic customers to reverse six straight annual losses. Our strength in economies in the u. K. And and ireland have helped lower it share of toxic loans. The efforts have been hurt somewhat by a series of scandals that rbs. For currencyrobed recouping rbs is going to retain ulster bank in ireland. The unit has returned to profit for the First Time Since 2008. It had been going through troubled times, especially since the Irish Economy crashed economyg 2008, but the is picking up. The Property Market is picking up as well. And ulster bank is deemed essential to rbs, and it will retain it. Lots of big news crossing the bloomberg terminal. The biggest of all first thirdquarter profit in three years. A warm glow on behalf of the u. K. Taxpayer. And spanishne airline iag. British airway, iberia. Its actually raising its profit forecast, while the rest of the industry struggles. Profit concerns, we are saying that they are up. Unit costs are falling. This is what really is happening with overall do not worry about my nose. No, no. Havel tell you they slightly miss their profit forecast for this quarter in terms of estimates. They have posted a profit of 900 million euro. Analysts are looking a little bit more than that, but it is up i 30 . They managed to drive up sales by 8 . They say fuel costs are down 7 . But other costs are down 4. 5 . This is the discipline that willie walsh has been bragging about. He is able to keep costs at a minimum when it comes to that iberia unit. They had to get rid of 3000 staff. Period. Ough that hes managed to renegotiate their pricing. The amount they paid the spanish workers. Therefore, the display and is paying off. They say now operating profit will increase for the year. They say up by 600 million euro s. Before they had seen half a billion being added. They are upping their profit forecast. Overall, they are taking significant steps to keep costs at a minimum. Why would you seem while we have seen air frances profitability slump. Warn about the country. Strikes, the economy, the ukraine, none of it is affecting iag. They seem to be able to navigate this turbulence. They are winning. Stocks in japan soaring after increase its to target for monetary stanchion monetary expansion. They voted 54 targeting an 80 trillion yen annual expansion. To discuss more is willie li ve from tokyo. This has surprised many. All but three of the analysts we surveyed at bloomberg. Yeah, it was a big surprise. Maybe they were trying to scare us on halloween. Who knows . This is a big surprise. Looking at the Inflation Numbers this morning, there was some cause and effect. Certainly the boj looked at the numbers and realize that there is 2 inflation in two years target was optimistic. Things are not working out as planned. The bit of inflation that japan is getting is Important Energy inflation. You can argue that bad inflation. It isis a surprise, but welltimed move. What it does is it rings the gun for the boj. The boj is reminding the world that we are on top of this. We are trying to do the right things. I enjoyed your piece yesterday talking about japan and argonomics. You mentioned how you do these panels, when you moderate, what they do to boost the economy. And you talk about a fourth a rrow. Forget the third arrow. What about the fourth . What does he need to do, arbe . I think the problem is that you can argue that abenomics is great, but stuff that japan shouldve been doing 20 years ago. Japan needs to think more boldly in the age of china and south korea. One thing that japan could be doing is inspiring young onto per norse young onto per entrepreneurs. When it comes to women, japan to implement quotas, forcing government institutions and companies to hire female executives. They should be doing other things like immigration. There is not a real consensus among the populace. Why dont we start importing higher and labor . There are a variety of things we could be doing, thinking out of the box. What i was trying to do is just areng that there conventional ideas. Here are couple of other things he could be trying. Call me crazy. What about sony . Are the problems that japan is facing reflected in the one great Consumer Electronics company sony, which announced a loss today . Its interesting. It is the bar in japan in for good news is so low. Billion. 1. 2 everyone is rejoicing. It is an interesting day. In many ways, sony is a microcosm for japan. Sony once change the world and churned out a friday of world changing products. Then it got complacent and got loaded and distracted. In some ways, that is japan. Back. Is trying to fight and return to greatness and relevance in the age of china. Look atay, certainly the results, they are doing better slightly because of the but theyre not making any product anybody wants. The problem is innovation, coming up with something new. They have not been able to do that yet. Thanks a lot. Live from tokyo p request coming down. T on count we will talk ukraine and geopolitics. Welcome back. 12 minutes past seven in london. Our next guest says the rise of nationalism has played a major in the a key driver ukraine crisis. Joining us is a senior political analyst. Thank you for coming in to talk to us. Where do we start this conversation . Talk about your overall assessment of where we are at the moment, the rise of nationalism and what is happening in the markets. Your introduction has been right. Ofhave seen a shedload politics, and yet markets every need out with hardly a blink of the eye. I think there is a very simple reason for that and that is the fact that we have been living in very unusual, loose monetary circumstances. It has cushioned markets against the impact of political events. Here we are on the 30 first of october and it is an important day. Tapering is over. It willoj has announced pump even more money into the economy. That has balanced it somewhat. With all due respect to kur oda. What the boj is not going to affect markets except insofar as the nikkei. Nd it will not have the sort of impact on Global Markets which the Federal Reserve has,. Furthermore, what china does. China has been in stemming this mode. If china follows the pattern we have seen for the last two years, we have to expect that probably early in the new year, china is going to start withdrawing stimulus and go back into cracking down on the shadow Banking Sector. We have seen this happen every six or seven months in the past two years. China remains working towards a possibility of making the in 2017. Convertible they have a lot of work to do on cleaning up the financial sector. We should be in no doubt about pings determination as an economic and social reformers, even with recent events in hong kong. Any longterm impacts for what we saw on the streets in hong kong and the way china handles itself . Overall, that will fade away over time. But what we have got going on in hong kong civil unrest. If we think back over the last 18 months, we have seen civil unrest and over a dozen countries, which has been turbulent for those countries. Weve seen regime change driven by civi unrest in ukraine. You can argue thailand as well. I do not imagine that markets are too concerned about civil unrest in burkina faso. You get the general point. This could break out anyway. It is always worth keeping in mind that chinas leaders handle a lot of civil unrest at home. Im sure in a lot of their concern over hong kong has been the risk of some sort of contagion into the mainland. But overall, i think the key point to go back to your original question, is that as monetary conditions change, i expect markets to become more riskaverse. That is going to drive more volatility. Political events, particularly in more risky markets, emerging markets, are more likely to be driving markets sentiment. Therefore indices than we have seen for the first 10 months of this year. Russia, ukraine, news that russia will restore gas supplies to ukraine after receiving their first payment. Are we heading towards deescalation . Not going totin is let ukraine go. We have a prowestern government followingn kiev elections last weekend. Why would you put the gas back on, probably so you can switch it off later. Wait till genuine. My bet is that the russians have are up to two things. Restoring gas as a future lever. And secondly, looking to try to split the e. U. More to start to work toward sanctions alleviations, including, although the french have denied this for the time being, the delivery of the mistral warship. The russians want that. Lets keep in mind if you look at what russia is doing, what ietera Nuclear Bombers doing in nato airspace . It is not going to go away, this issue. As russias economy continues to struggle next year, look for the price of oil, where cpi is going to be with a food import ban. To try to continue distract russian voters from domestic socioeconomic tensions in the runup to the duma elections next year. In this era of social media level of political activism, and other parts of the world, does that continue to be the case that in your view putin uses this global state to distract from the domestic agenda . Definitely a look at his writing. I have to be impressed by the way in which putin arrived in the kremlin in may 2012 on the back of four or five months of civil turmoil on the 2011 duma elections and has exceeded in defendants trading the opposition. Propaganda machine, to me, a former cold war warrior, it is like acta the future. Back to the future. You talk about nationalism driving events. In coming laws and in the coming year, what about in france with the emergence of National Front . Catalonia. We will come to the u. K. In the next section. This is eurozone only. How will these factors play out in the next months . The main point is, the big picture point is that these parties are going to drag mainstream parties into policy notces which they are comfortable with but which they feel they have to do for populist raises. That is going to mean there will be more broad antie. U. Sentiment. Whether that is the case in front nationale in france or afd or doing more for the peripherals, antieuro. Overall, this just makes it a lot more difficult for these leaders actually to come to some sort of trajectory, which provides longterm solutions for the eurozone. Greater integration. Angela merkel has had to accept that there will be no treaty until after the french president ial elections in 2017. That slows the whole thing down. The two things i would worry about most at this stage is first of all, at some stage in the coming weeks, we do not know when, the ecj is going to rule on omt. Omt has been a great stabilizing factor in the eurozone for two years. Plus, if they rule against it, that could rattle markets. Furthermore, i think that would make it much more difficult for to go down the mario draghi q. E. Track. Secondly, you mentioned it yourself. Atalonia is heading towards a constitutional crisis between barcelona and the trade which goes to the heart of bond markets. Roughlyish 10year 2. 3 . Volatility and bond markets could contage italy. Its not totally impossible if spain got bad that may finish up going back to to see if they can get help from the ecb. Dont rule it out. Thank you very much. Stay with us. More geopolitics. We turn our attention to the oil crisis and the Islamic State after the break. Welcome back to countdown. 7 23. We are back with alastair newton. Lets talk about oil. Aboutink this is is more supply and demand. Entirely supply and demand. Very nice all of these conspiracy theories about saudi arabia. The fx strategist lovett as asdisposed to love it predisposed to conspiracy theories. Areink, though, that we going to see politics coming back into oil downstream. If we move forward, three days before the next opec meeting, which is the 27th of november, we have the deadline for agreement with iran over its nuclear program. Most markety to commentators, im cautiously optimistic about this. I think there is a 5050 probability we will get a deal. The consensus is probably closer to one in three. If we do not get a deal, five weeks before the january to april period, which is seen as the best in weather conditions for military operations in the gulf, i think markets are likely to do a rerun of what they did in 2012 out of concern that is what was going to bomb iran. March. Barrel in im not going to say 128, because that is a big jump. The bottom line is that this markets need to pay close attention to the iran negotiations. Iran has been the biggest single political driver of the oil price for a decade, not just for those 10 months of this year. Lets talk about the big knownunknown. Ukip. They are a knownknown. Lets bring the top forward and electionward to the by coming up on the 20th of november. It looks like ukip is going to win a second westminster seat. The headlines are likely to be another disaster for cameron. Opinion polls are tellnging us that they will take eight to 10 Percentage Points off the labour party. Pretty much what they did and clocked in. And they very nearly won haywood and. Middleton 617 votes. The real threat which ukip os poses is not to conservatives. My bed as we will get another hung parliament. I think the biggest threat they pose is actually to ed millibans labour party. Keep in mind,so labour has got a big problem in scotland. Take a reckons it will minimum of 20 seats of labor in general session. That will make it hard for ed miliband to secure the leadership of the next government. Thanks for joining us. The senior political analyst at nomura. Against thes 2 dollar. We will have more on Foreign Exchange when we come back. Welcome back to countdown. 7 30 in london. Lets take a look at four exchange. We look at dollaryen. The bank of japan unexpectedly announced this morning they are going to try to increase the Monetary Base by more than previously thought. The quantitative easing plan will target an increase per year of 80 trillion yen. Previously, the rate had been 60 to 70. Theyre trying to generate inflation. But they have to bring down their own forecast of inflation. The oil price has been moving lower. To this morning we saw the yen dropping 2 against the dollar. 111. 45 against the dollar. The biggest slide since a book 2013. It was april 2013 was when we saw the announcement of this re cord quantitative easing plan coming through for the boj. Late 2012, we started to cease peculation about q. E. , because of some electoral change. The yen fell as a result. We got the announcement april 2013. The rest is history. You can see that todays movies even showing up on that fiveyear chart. Ok, im mark barton. This are the Bloomberg Top stories. Russia says it is reached agreements with the grain on supplying natural gas. Supplies will halted were halted in june. The e. U. Brokered talks over resuming deliveries of gas. In the kina faso says it has taken power after several days of protests against the president. The military says it is planning to appoint a new head of state. Burkina faso is the secondbiggest biggest con producer in Subsaharan Africa and fifth largest gold producer. We were speaking to the ryanair chief executive Michael Oleary who has signed up for another five years in charge of the airline. Our concentration will be all over europe. Presently, all of our growth is focused in italy, greece, germany where air berlin is cutting a lot of flights. We are moving into those opportunities. We are talking to a considerable number of italian airports. We have opened a new base. It is going very well. Lastst launched another week. We seem in many more growth opportunities. Not just here in italy to bring people all over europe but to bring more business from europe to italy. Lets talk about spain. If a structure giant announced plans for an initial Public Offering for his telecommunications unit. Joining us for an exclusive conversation is the infrastructure ceo. Thank you so much for joining us today. Great to have you in studio. Lets talk about your plant ipo. The Telecom Division. How much of it are you planning to sell, and how much of it to you want to keep . The ipo division is a tonclusion of one of the mos important legs of our new Strategic Plan. We have reached the point that the Telecom Division has a lot of growth. Of course, as the financial books say, we can see the Capital Markets as the right way to finance such growth. We cannot disclose yet, because yesterday what we did was is to disclose our strategic approach to that this is. Percentagelose the that we will be offering, but it is important in terms of the investment, will have a chance to follow this. Why have you chosen this moment to announce your ambitions to ipo this division, because many think the time might not be right the cause of recent cancellations of listings. Is the time right . Did you consider a private sale to a Financial Partner . Aswe really consider the ipo the best option within our different alternatives we have studied very deeply. Then we think we have really good assets, very wellrun business. This is a really blueship that could be a very attractive for the market. Of course, its subject to market conditions. You never can say 100 probability to run it. We have made our survey in the markets. Many in london and new york, and we have found a lot of appetite for this business. Do you know what you hope to to achieve from the ipo . 3 billion euros, these are numbers ive heard. I really apologize. If my lawyers would say anything about what i have in my mind, they would kill me. Keep it for a while. We will come back and explain more details on this offering. The focus is going to be on toll roads. You will return money to investors. You will boost Dividend Payments by a year by 5 a year through 2017. You will find a stock buyback. What is the prospect for toll roads, both in the countries close to spain and further away . Ourll you said is a part of Strategic Plan which is focused in maintaining and growing the Value Creation for our shareholders. We are pretty convinced that there will be a lot of opportunities in the toll road sector, which is a business that we know quite well how to run. Seriousachieved a very level of efficiency that we can export to many other countries. An example of our existing pipeline, im pretty convinced that we will need even more money for the projects that are coming. Your revenuesof are generated outside spain, but spain remains an important market. Dp figures out showing the pickup in spanish gdp. There are a lot of people around the eurozone looking at spain, looking at the example of labor market reform that has taken place in the country. That that then translates into reduced levels of unemployment. What are your hopes for the spanish economy . I think its a fact that spain has done a lot of work in the past. The last three years have been really tough, but we are now collecting what we the economy is showing that we have a lot of potential. For example, in our traffic. For the First Time Since 2007, our traffic on the motorways has grown. It is growing, still continuing growing in the month off. We yesterday disclosed that we have around 2 growth but we are expecting even more growth by the end of the year. Im especially spain to recover faster than people think. Of course, we have still in unemployment issue around, which is probably the most important problem to attack. But as far as you continue to within the figures, europe, we have been impressive. Are you hiring in spain . We need. Hiring when to hireot regretting anywhere where we are. It depends on our activity. What are you doing in brazil . Talk to me about brazil . Post the election victory last weekend. It is an economy that is growing. Inflation is over target. Got a budget deficit. Market certainly have been spooked by the notion of the president s election. The infrastructure spooked by it . It is not. The last two weeks the markets were astonished about the potential reelection of the president. And there were a lot of trading, depending on how the polls were running. But i think the first speech has to maintainportant calm in the markets. Ske has said she has a big ta to fix the economy. Brazil is a great country, plenty of natural resources, that has stunned a very good growth in the last years and has built a social media population of over 100 million. Our specific activity, there is no other way more than to move on cars. If you go to the big cities, like rio and sao paulo, you will see that other transportation ways are really difficult. R barcelonabased business. November 9, there is going to be a vote. Some will say it is something less formal than that about catalonian independent spirit what does your business want to see happen on november 9 what does your business want to see happen on november 9 . I am not a politician. I do not have any opinion as a businessman. I have my opinion as a citizen. But regarding albertis on november 9, i am convinced that we will take the right decisions every country where we operate. Our assets are not removable. You cannot move roads from one country to another. Therefore, we need to play with the circuit senses the circumstances. Thank you so much for joining us. The ceo o ff abertis. There is a treat for harry potter fans. Jk rowling has written a new potter story. It will be published on the pottermore. Com site, just in time for halloween. Spooky. Gettinge too busy dressed up everywhere these interactive events are not for the fainthearted. Bloomberg went behind the scenes of two businesses betting big on zombies. Ourhese are some of residence. Tts. You move fast. Im one of the directors of slingshot. Its a giant game of tag. A zombie themed game of tag. There are dozens different locations across the city. We are living out the fantasy. How will i survive in a zombie acropolis Zombie Apocalypse . Our business started in 2008. From a lot of first year, we have more than doubled every year. This year we have done 917,000. 1. 4 million for next year. The zombies represent a fear of her own extension. That people relate to. Jones. s david i am the owner of apocalypse. Blitz started eight or nine months ago. It is a onehour event. And it is a period piece. You are immersed in 1940s underground london. Most decent not been touched since the second world war. Where strong strong growth in the industry. Zombie swat training did take me by surprise because 125 pounds is a lot of money to spend. It is whats enabled us to survi ve or a very troubling economic time. I do believe it could of been a very different story had we not gone down this road. You could say weve put our heart and soul into this event. Do you love zombies . I find life scary enough. Spend 5 quid on dawn of the dead. Great movie. I will be dressing up. I demand photographic evidence. On twitter. markbartontv. I confess, i probably will not be dressing up. Forced to. T be 7 43 in london. Time for todays bart shot. How low can gold go . Today, the lowest level since july 20 10. Yesterday it fell below 1200 for the first time this year. It has erased its gains for the year. Rose more than expected. Throw in the ending of q. E. , which further diminishes the appeal of gold. And an inflation hedge. To use the words of edward meir intl analyst, gold is confronting a stronger dollar. Pricesnt bode well for prospects going into 2015. For his firstg consecutive monthly lost since 24 of 2014. It fell by 6 in september. How low could gold go . Today. An ounce socgen says chances are increasing that gold will fall to 1000 as the cost of o il tumbles. S cheaperaig say energy means low inflation. Socgen is not alone in predicting thlower gold. Willey curry says prices drop to 1050 by the end of the year. The end of the year. Not two years, which is the socgen forecast. Gold. 6 . Ays ago, has fallen keep an eye on gold. A trifecta. You need to have a thesaurus handy for countdown. London. The onus of British Airways has posted numbers. Of British Airways has posted numbers. The outlook is brighter. Iag and some numbers. Iag, British Airways, iberia. Alsh pulled it out of the bag. Even though profit slightly missed in the Third Quarter. It is still up 31 . Compare that to the profits that went tumbling at rivals air fr ance and klm. And also the second profit warning and five months we had at lufthansa. Theyre outperforming the market. Profit up 31 . The fullyear forecast raised. We could see profits up 77 compared to last year. Previously, they thought they might climb 64 . But they are managing to get a grip of prices. They have got fuel down 7. 5 . Nonfuel costs 4 down. . Down 4. 5 . Osts they have 25 analyst saying buy. Basically will wash fast forward to the process. He came through the end of the problems he had with the iberian unit far faster than his rivals. Whilst the continental europeans are dealing with a weak economy, b. A. Has been managing to tap some of the strength by expanding b. A. Capacity. Rbs could be a strong performance. Iag called higher. At last, they returned to a profit. It is the first time weve seen a thirdquarter profit for rbs in three years. The u. K. Economy has helped, helped barclays yesterday. Fewer profit concerns. Fewer money they have set aside. Rbs profit, we see close to 900 Million Pounds. Big beat. They have set aside 400 Million Pounds for an fx probe. We are 10 minutes away from the start of todays european equities. Stocks will open higher today. Yesterday, the three letters that matter today its the boj. Surprising the markets. It looks as though we are going to get a boost to trading this morning. Welcome back. This is countdown. It is friday. I am anna edwards. Jonathan ferro is here for drama. The bank of japan, specifically. Giving us a big wake up this morning. I was not expecting that. Most of stimulus. Yen plunges. Bk surges. They are making etfs eligible for purchase. Kkei surges. What i think is interesting is the relationship between what the bank of japan is doing and what the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund is about to do. They need to get out of the bank of japans way. They need to pull out of bounds to give room to buy the assets. Two weeks ago, the bank of japan went to the markets to buy treasuries and failed to buy the amount they wanted to buy. There was not enough there to buy. One moves out of the way for the other. We will get a breakdown we think in five minutes time from the japanese government. That is when a press conference will be had in japan. This is been a long time coming. Around foreen moved weeks, months, year. Whether they are announced by things other than bonds. Ive got the current targets for you. Right now japanese stocks 12 of their current target. This is very conservative compared to the likes of isways pension where 60 allocated to stocks. A boost to their, a reduction in their target for bonds and a boost to foreign holdings. We get data. The employment cost index out of the u. S. Gauges wages. That matters. Eurozone data, we have got as well. That is a big one. Its not there. Big miss for germany. We are expecting a pickup of 0. 4 . You can join us on twitter. Do tell us what you think of the show. Let us know what you want more or less up. The weekend is approaching. We want to see photographic evidence of mark barton dressing up for halloween. Mustache. Ember on the move up next. The bank of japan very much a part of the story. Stay with us. Welcome to on the move i am jon ferro in london. Moments away from the start of european trading. What a morning. This is what we are looking at over the next 60 minutes. The bank of japan owning the headlines with a boost to stimulus. The Japanese Central bank steps ups support for the economy and an effort to boost inflation. We look ahead to eurozone inflation later this morning. Russia in focus as the country agrees to return natural gas exports to ukraine. Best day versus the dollar since 1999. Rbs, happy news for them. Return to profit. They smash estimates with a profit just under 900 Million Pounds. What does it mean for the open . It really is all about the bank of japan. Extra stimulus. Footie 100 futures up ftse 100 futures up. Dax futures up 194 points. We will break down all this news a little later on. We are already up 1 on the stoxx 600. It is going to go higher, it seems. Haseems to be japan that set of fire underneath stocks this morning. It helped asia, likely to help europe as well. France up almost 2 . Of course, japan unexpectedly boosting stimulus. Already injecting unprecedented