Breaking the barricade. To break police try the protests as the chief executive says he wont stand down. Welcome to countdown. I am mark barton. Stocks are starting to trade. Lets have a look at european equities. They are trading down 1 . Off Global Equities this week. U. S. Treasuries are heading the highest levels in 11 months. Ran down 1. 3 . Volumes are bombing. A critical number. Even Stanley Fischer saying Global Growth is a concern. Growth continues at these levels, it may move even slower. Investors would like that comment from officials. The chief economist at goldman sachs. Its really does crystallize for me. Much of the revenue is from overseas. Gdp in the u. S. Is only 13 and a half percent. It isnt so much risk. Good old goldman sachs, the chief risk operator. They are underestimating. They think the market is benign. Understand the fact that crises do occur. Thefed governors raising voice about Global Growth. If the market drops a little bit, but investors are pulling money from the European Market on record. Est pace nearly 2 billion in the past three months. It has been an important month for france. The company had its outlook cut. With the finance minister. He said francis deficit should not be reduced at the expense of growth. Its not about time. Its about rhythm. Inflation collapsed. Japan also reinforced the belief the eurozone can only return for help if 18 other countries manage stability for the region. We shouldnt point fingers at each other. Neither those that can make an effort for their investments. We need to keep making efforts to boost the budget. We need to have a collaborative vision. A good way is investment. You need investment in infrastructure, a little public investment, and a lot of private invest in. Pershing Square Holdings begins trading. For more our International Correspondent joins us on the line from amsterdam. Bit we area little going to see what the new stock is going to be trading at in amsterdam. It was valued at 6 billion. We will have an interview in asking whyours time it is important to have access to permanent capital. You can see the full interview. Focus is ebola. One of the nurses who treated the patient has contracted one. Thomas freeman admits other Health Workers may also be affected. Unfortunately, it is possible ofwill see additional cases ebola. It is because healthcare workers who cared for this individual may have had a breach of this same nature from an individual who appear to have positive tests. We are joined by Ryan Chilcote for the latest. Infection onirst u. S. Soil. It is twofold. One is this should not happen, that what they were doing should have prevented transmission of the disease. You heard them saying there could be more. If those are the measures in place at that hospital and this happened, what if it happens at another hospital . We heard from the national saying, ford union the last few months we have been screaming were not prepared. They say a small fraction of workers have been through the drill of getting into the protect his kit and protective kit and getting out of it. It could have happened when they were hooking up the dialysis machine or taking off the protective clothing. There are a lot of people asking the question, is it realistic for 5000 hospitals in the United States to prepare to be as ready as one would like them to be, or should the number be limited . A very meaningful conversation for europe. Last week we had dress for herself that some of the hospitals. We know the french government is meeting to discuss what to do. Been veryh have engaged in this issue. I would imagine you are going to see a lot more attention paid to this issue of how to prevent the viruson once arrives. You heard from the mayor of london it is pretty much unavoidable it could end up in europe. , wes the death toll rises talked to the finance minister about the economic impact. It is certainly at the epicenter of the crisis. Nearly 4000 people have died from the virus in those countries. The finance minister is concerned. The finance minister effectively talking about what they have thought. All investment has left skeletons. How the coreut businesses in west africa have been affected. Rise in nearlyt eight months. This is a localized crisis with a couple of flareups outside of africa. The occupy Hong Kong Movement is dwindling. Are now trying to keep order. Now at thepening sites. Otest tensions are rising. It has been largely peaceful since we last saw teargas used here. We have seen those trying to barge through the barricades. In front of headquarters they were speaking in front of an occupy crowd. They have been told to leave. They were also standing in one. F the areas wherean area outside protests have been held peacefully. Uptesters said, we will give peacefully. The government has said, we are not going to do it. The police have removed some of the barriers. They were reinforced later. Despite calls for his resignation the chief executive, he says he is not going to resign. When his resignation solve the problem . , itven if he did resign wouldnt solve the problem, and this is why. We hope to achieve universal suffrage. Everyone knows the chance for negotiation would be close to zero. Emagin mentioned the decision. But was the plan made in which workers caneligible have a vote. Protesters said it is the right thing to do. Governmente misrepresented what the people wanted and beijing used that information. Thanks a lot. You can join the conversation on twitter when you want to talk about what is happening in hong kong or ebola or any of the markets. You will find us. Coming up, just how much will the ecb decrease its Balance Sheet by . We will discuss. That is in 30 minutes. You are watching countdown. Live pictures of the protests in hong kong. Police have removed some of the barricades erected by prodemocracy protesters. There have been calls for more people to come on board and actually help them galvanize the process. Executiveong chief said there is zero chance china will change its position. Candidate. Best growth and contraction in the impact onave major the euro and dollar. Joining us is the managing patrick. What is going on with Global Markets . All sorts of trouble. Aret seems to me there slowing numbers out of germany. There are numbers out of china. American equities were short. They have been short all year. We have been getting along europe. Particularly european banks. Is in geopolitics, a realization the geopolitical roosts are coming home to . What is it . I think it is more worrying about the economy. They are more worried about growth. Geopolitics is behind things. I dont think that explains what has happened over the last 10 days. You must be sitting quite pretty and your position. If money is moving out of europe at the fastest pace on record. At money washed in. 2 billion has been taken out in the past three months. It is about growth in earnings, isnt it . What matters most with equities is the price you pay for it. If you buy equities when they are cheap you get above normal return. Right now it is unequivocally cheap. It doesnt feel comfortable. Its not what everybody else is doing. Thats where you make excess returns. Is it all cheap . You Want Companies in europe. You have got the asset quality. Eview why would you get more exposed to the Banking Sector . A big popgoing to get after the view review. Addressgoing to finally i dont think the ecb is going to score huge amounts of capital. I think they are going to get transparency. The question is how much bad debt do they have. What kind of Capital Raising to they need to do . It is. 6 or. 7 times value. September 9 september 19, less than a month. They are down 7 . Even more reason to buy. I think so. We started buying the banks last week after those big selloffs. It is not a comfortable position, but its a position where i think you have got there a compelling valuations, very low expectations and something where you could see a particular rally. Where else . I think europe is cheap. I Like Companies filling with dollar revenues in europe. I think that has been a big headwind last year and is going into next year earnings. Consumer stocks have been hit very hard with what is happening in hong kong. I think those are looking very good. It will probably be 75 or 76 again. Revenues will come through. Thank you. Patrick armstrong stays with us. We will have more when we come back with patrick. It just went he minutes past 7 00. This is countdown. Stay with us. Welcome back. I am an edwards and a edwards. Lets get more with patrick. You are not a big fan of the euro. Is that because you really believe the ecb is going to do one state of easing. I dont know if it is wishful thinking. Getting the put off from the ecb. That is another reason we are attracted to european equities. Contractionsheets of ecb led to a strong euro last year, which i think cut a lot of people off. We are getting the opposite this year. Tell us about your picks in the commodities space. I know you like platinum and palladium. Palladium is down 13 . Why have you chosen these metals . They are two of the commodities where it is very favorable. Demands is very strong. It has got the precious metal aspect. If you get the inflationary environment, you have the precious metal valuations. Coming frome are russia and south africa. You have labor sanctions. You could see potential growth spikes. You used a word deflation a couple times. Taking a contrary in in termsontrarian view of success of the ecb. Tell us why. We are probably too early. When risk aversion spikes up we want to be short on the rallies. 85487 . It is not going to kill me if i am wrong on this. The ecb will print money. You will see higher yields at some point. If i gave you 1000 pounds and asset for six months, what would that be . 15 . You just put yourself a slot. Thank you very much. London. In after the break we are going to predict the economic impact. We look at what happened with sars 11 years ago. You are very welcome back this monday morning. Declining. This is part of the bigger scaling back of risks. When people are nervous of equity margins. People begin to take progress cost the table. That is coming through in the dollar index. Sally fisher warned us the fed may consider slowing down the pace at which they would draw liquidity from markets. That has done very little to appease the dollar. The dollar down. How is that playing out . The yen is rising for a third day. The yen rising against all major counterparts as traders go for a haven trade. Asian stocks are down for a fifth week in a row. Traders have reduced their bearish bets on dollaryen for the first time in three weeks. We are seeing a bit of a shift. Two things that have come in. Dont give up dollar longs. Yen up, dollar down. How does that change it . Look at the aussie dollar. From ninemonth lows. Their this in mind. Market again changing its position. Bear in mind. Market again changing its position. Raders are net down whatever we have got it is playing out in dollar aussie straight. Top headlines. E a Dallas Health care worker has contracted ebola after being in contact with the former infected patient, duncan. The cdc said they had breached protocol. This is the first time someone is known to have contracted ebola inside the United States. Bloomberg tv africa spoke to sierra leone costs sierra s finance minister. It is a number of people. Unning away agriculture is dwindling. It is going down. And exports are also down. Affected. Also been Islamic State militants may capture within days coe innie capture kobani days. Pistoriuss sentencing hearing starts today for the manslaughter conviction in the killing of his girlfriend, rita steenkamp. His punishment could range from 15 years in prison to a fine. For more on the effects on african economies we are joined by the african director. Thanks for joining us. Last week we saw a big decline in travel and leisure. Carnival, all sort of components of the travel and leisure industry. Do you expect the trend to continue when ebola uncertainty persists . They are experiencing a worsening. These are big moves. There is an important in word market. Its unfortunate thats where we have this case of the nurse. When northern europeans go on holiday in search of sun, they go to a lot of places. They go to portugal, greece, turkey, but above all they go to spain. It is the biggest in word market. If there is a loss of confidence of safety being in spain that would be a problem. How useful are the lessons when we are analyzing ebola and the impact it might have on the markets . If you look at 2003, Cathay Pacific is at the eye of the storm. We saw profits declined by two thirds that year. They did still make a profit, but they grounded a quarter of their fleets. Because people stopped traveling. It was a big moves. We havent seen anything like that on the airline markets. So far west africa is a relatively small market. Big airlines have it been flying been flyinge not there for months now. Accounts a whole would for maybe 5 of their profits. It has to be kept in contact. It is much less than hong kong was. We look at european airlines, there is a number of other facets that come into play. We have strikes. We have got competition from discounters. Down over 10 . How much is ebola, and how much is an unprofitable industry . I think it is roughly halfandhalf. I think it was ebola last week. Last week we had Economic News out of germany, and air france. We had a disclosure that the strike cost 500 million euros, even by the standard of bad strikes. That was a lot of money. They said the worst is not over. They were running below where they should be. All of these, not just ebola. Worry. Continued to is it too early to worry about disruptions from the likes of nigeria if ebola does spread . I would say so. So far it has been contained, but nigeria is a big oil producer. Production has to be shut off or curtailed. Worlda counts for 2 of production. The downward trend is very much inevitable. We were talking about the limitations of comparing this to sars. There are limitations. Sars is more easily transmissible. Mobile. Ere very we were talking about southeast asia. People were much more moving into the global networks. This is not the case in west africa. A lot of the tragedy was in west africa and it is likely that is where it will stay. We need to see a spread of local transmission in europe and america for things to get really bad. When you see the airlines coming off services to west africa, largely they are doing that because they are worried about the staff. That ant want to find staff member overnighting in guinea has fallen ill and has to go to the hospital and contracted ebola. Thank you very much. A blind man in the netherlands has become only the second person in the country to be fitted with a bionic eye. The patient has taken up archery. On target. An impressive enough feet under normal circumstances, but in this case it is remarkable. This man is completely blind. Park is only the second person in the netherlands to be fitted with a bionic eye. The implant is made up of a miniature camera, a transmitting chip, a place with 60 electrodes implanted in the eye, and a tiny bionic eye works by converting video into pulses of electricity that stimulate healthy retinal cells, allowing the wearer to see colors and shapes. Have changed in my life for the better. I have become more confident, and i can do more things and visualize more things. A man who carried out the procedure said he hoped the technology would soon benefit other visually impaired patients. Experiencing there are a lot of other diseases in the and where the optic nerve works. Those are the diseases that can be targeted. He has seen his life bionic eye. By the recently i was at a concert. I enjoyed the light show. I can visualize the guitar player. Next coming up next, what is happening to europes biggest leading chip maker . Welcome back. That is a drumroll. Wake up, everybody. The europe stocks 50. You can see what happened since ofe and since the beginning september. A half by four and percent last week. The biggest drop in two years. The imf cutting the euro zone growth forecast. Mario draghi warning of signs of recovery. Circle of a little green it has fallen almost 10 . It needs to fall by 10 . That circle was a sixyear high for the stocks 600. A record 1 billion was withdrawn. Equity losses in europe amounted to 1. 6 trillion. The Fund Managers named a favorite. What do valuations look like for european stocks right now . Trading att is 13. 6 . In early july it was 15. From september of 2011. It is 20 higher from the fiveyear outrage average. We have seen a decline like this before in august. In august we didnt see the correction but almost down by 10 . Down by 10 . 50 fall byro stoxx more than 10 . Just a whisper away. Lets see why the ceo of hong kong said protest cannot be tolerated for long. Lets go to david tweed. What do you see . I am in the middle of two groups of protesters. It looks to be made up of six or 700 older chinese men. Polices one group of holding back the antioccupy protesters and another group that appears to be protecting a small number of prodemocracy protesters. Police have been trying to negotiate with protesters to try to get them out of this area, i think because they are concerned from potential violence protesters. What is the Police Presence like . Is it markedly different . It has been different from this morning. Presence fromge police. It looked like the police are going to march on the barricades. They walked away but came back theoon as we saw wereoccupy protesters coming into the area. David is joining us from the protests. Regulators in the u. S. And the u. K. Will carry out their first wargame. Simulate aes want to crossborder problem. This involves Federal Reserve chair janet yellen and mark carney. Still to come, you are london at a shot of where equities are set to open lower in 12 minutes time. We have the head of global strategy. He will tell us what is on his mind. They with us at countdown. Stay with us at countdown. It is 7 51 in london. The seventhlargest autoworker auto company increased. We take a look at chryslers best performing makes and models. Chrysler, now in the hands of reappearing in the New York Stock Exchange. How is chrysler doing . In 2013 chrysler sold way better than in 2009 but not nearly as good as in 2005. Historically, chrysler has been the smallest of the big three, and that has not changed. Gm remains the biggest. Number two. The bestselling division was god. The best selling. With the selling. Withorst the durango. Chryslers next bestselling was inp, which chrysler bought 1987. The best selling cheap last year was the grand cherokee. Year was the grand cherokee. A one modelt division, which explains why the vast majority of its sales were ram pickups. The worst performing division of chrysler was chrysler. The town and country, dominated, which is a good and a bad thing for the company. It captured the largest market share in that category, but that category is shrinking. We are going to be speaking chief live from the stock exchange. A big day for chrysler today. A big day for futures. Week three is going to open a little lower. It is 1 lower on equity futures. I think it is whether the volumes pick up as well. Astly we saw volumes 37 oil is in a bear market. Money is going into treasuries. He said to buy latin american by palladium. We were talking about whether it matters. By manyeen picked up reporting outlet as to whether they are falling out. His you is it doesnt really matter because the ecb is looking for unanimity , and they can tolerate a situation where not everybody agrees. They seem to tell us they think the ecb will do full on quantitative easing. Wishful thinking. s preferredghi gauge. It is a gauge of medium expectations. Since 2004. West his inflation gauges going in that direction. That is a worry. He was very contrary and. Go againstuy euro, it. For me there are a couple of things that stood out. Goldman sachs, you should listen when they talk about risk. They said the market is very benign and that risk could come. All of those could come in to provide liquidity. As soon as there is a huge spike, those could pull liquidity. To get ready for 2000 and eight. Lets keep an eye on political tensions. There are key meetings taking place in europe between ukrainians and russia. And whether we see an escalation in tensions or tensions are being awakened, especially when you look at german data. Three pieces of data. And ebola and the impact on travel and leisure. We spoke to stanley, saying he thinks those moves are discounting a much bigger impact than we are seeing at the moment. Move is next. We will be bringing you the latest from European Equity markets. Management bill oneill will be joining us coming up. Welcome to on the move. Futures are pointing lower. Stocks plunge. Ability to stimulate the economy dominates concerns. Commodities continue to slide. Over 20 in just over four months. Standard and poors fires a warning shot at france. They revise it from negative to stable. The french finance minister speaks to bloomberg. . Hat does it mean futures much lower. Ftse 100 down by 55 words. Dax futures 92 lower. A drop of 1 at the open. It doesnt look like were going to get that Early Morning rebound after the selloff. Volumes are considerably past 30 days. E that is what we saw. Money is going out of the European Equity. Eight straight quarters of money flushing in. Investors took up 2 billion in the past three months. That is the most ever since bloomberg started compiling data. What is the sentiment . It is very obvious it is slightly bearish. A surveymerica said shows 18 of respondents were overweight european stocks. 35 overweight in july. The Federal Reserve saying concern of Global Growth may change the course of action by the Federal Reserve. From the fundnge managers. The fed voices concern about Global Growth. Startout play out as we how will that play out as we start the earnings season . Airways. Ritish travel was one of the worst performing last week. Jfk is beginning screening on travelers arriving from risk countries. The stock down. Premier traveling to the destination. Deutsche bank were waiting to see how that opens. The provision may be 7 billion euros. That is up 30 higher than they have already accounted for. Lets wait and see how Deutsche Bank actually open. Opened. And they are selling for 2. 2 5 billion. This is a company that scrapped half it ability at a rapid rate, 20 billion scrapped profitability at a rapid rate, 20 billion. Deutsche bank is down 1. 4 . 24. 98 on Deutsche Bank. Dollar down. Be careful. Traders are net short. They have changed their position on the aussie dollar. 1 . R down by 3 10 of nothing the fed has said has the anything to give to dollar. The dollar is down. That is giving a little to the aussie dollar. The yen has been down. Scared, thateling is your haven trade. Hedge Fund Managers reducing their bearish bets. Conversation. Dont capitulate on dollar longs and really hold onto them. Look for better opportunities to reenter the dollar yen trade. Opportunity to reestablish your position. Great work. Ftse 100 lower, down by 42 points. The dax down. 01 drop at the open. We are looking at Pershing Square. Stocks down 2. 4 . Point 31 right now. We will be talking to the. 4. 31 right now. We will be talking to the head of that. Right now. 24. 31 for joining us this morning. Last week very busy week. Clients were calling you up. What is the big question . Ask the question is is this just a correction. The question is is this just a correction. Or is it something more fundamental . On riskonstructive assets. There are concerns, particularly around europe. The combination of low volatility, steady market it wasnterest rates, never going to be sustained. Something was going to give. Our sense is this was part of the nervousness. If you look at the markets, clearly much more in europe, the dax down from the highs we hit back in june. To be a u. S. Continue less worstcase . We are backing the u. S. It is not just the u. S. But canada. We think it is the best combination of a friendly policy that means a coordinated policy environment theen by the fed, improving flow of the healthy banking system. Suggests it is premium against europe as well. Lets talk about the strength of the dollar for the third quarter. Dollar strength was 7 or 8 higher on the corner. What have we got for s p earnings . The sense is the main hit will be felt in the fourth quarter. You are likely to see something on the order of one and a half percent. It is meaningful. It is not dramatic, but its always difficult. Envelope back of the calculation. We dont know what hedging is like. You have got a 20 upside for the u. S. Bank. Banks . Bullish eurozone in a way eurozone banks are going through a repricing process. We have got a comprehensive assessment. He reassessment, shall i say there is a return of equity coming through, largely because of the decline in funding cost. It is not so much to do with that said growth. It is to do with the banking more profitable and generating return on equity. We talk about some of the fundamentals going into next year. Growth, the ecb reaction. The selloff continues. European equities open lower. Of 1 . Wn half we will be back after a short break. Welcome back. I am Jonathan Ferro. Live from the city of london. Lets talk about European Finance ministers. They meet in luxembourg today. The top of the agenda will be addressing the region slowing growth. We caught up with the finance minister in washington,. C. , to discuss policy we shouldnt point fingers at each other. Neither those who can make an effort to boost their invest it to boost theired budget. We need an agreement. A good way is investment. Inneed investment infrastructure, and companies, a little public investment, and private. Skirting the issues . I think it is fair to say raising Standard Poors has not. Toy have revised the Outlook Negative from stable. Here is what they had to say about the budget target. There is always room for maneuver. The main thing is to understand each other. We havent changed our budget policy. We are doing the same spending cuts we plan six months ago. Major cuts. What has changed . Protest slowed. Inflation has slowed. We need to take this into account. Let me show you what this means for the bond market. I can tell you the finished 10 below 1 . Dropped the french tenure 10 year pretty much unchanged. S p on january 13, the yield on the 10 year bond was just over 10 . It is now just over one and a quarter of 1 . Lets bring in over bring in bill oneill. Themove Means Nothing for bond market, doesnt it . Know, because it is dominated by the macroeconomic environment. Me a weak economy or longerterm concerns about where growth is going. Arguensequence, you could there is no danger about holding bonds. It is contained by the view on interest rates. It is nowhere in terms of interest rates. French economic recovery could prove elusive. Would you agree with that . In terms of positive feedback , business and consumer. Onfidence, there is a sense i dont think it is as bad as people make it out to be. You are likely to see a return to growth. Do you think we are going to fall back into recession and france . I think there is a risk of sleeping. I think the difficulty at the moment is the lack of hope and confidence around the ability of policy to deliver across the region. It is not clear how much space france has to deliver. There would have to be drastic reform. The country that did have space to maneuver is germany. You have a surplus. Is the major to move. The difficulty is it is cut off from the longerterm picture. It looks as if germany has over performed and does have to move, but from a german perspective the risk of justification. Yes,e european wide level, there is. If you are about to fall in recession there is a huge justification. The other thing we have to talk ecbt is a huge debate on monetary policy. Draghi focus magazine calling it an impossible relationship. The writeup was draghi was not deter him from his plans. Has the relationship because in him become impossible . , there areit works going to be nations that are going to be the wrong side of decisions. It is difficult that they are facing macroeconomic conditions in the german economy. They have a different perception somebodys the president of the european system. It isnt clear if more monetary easing would work. The big debate is whether they can. I think there is a fair amount about the impact of qe in europe. Evidence the liquidity does have an impact. There is a definite relationship. Portfolion effect of preference through yield assets, where an impact through financial assets, Price Inflation on the general economy. Sadly it is absent in europe. There are discordant notes emerging. Is a sense of collective good is still absent. This is where we feel we are not at the point of integration. Should i be buying european equities . We are firmly in correction territory now. There is clearly a block on what we can do on the fiscal side. There is clearly a huge debate. Why do i want any exposure for european equities right now . There are some excellent Quality Companies right now. Economy benefited from the weaker euro. Here are major hurdles on balance we are remaining neutral. Ourid pull back on exposure. It has been justified. It is still benefiting the u. S. To discuss the u. S. , europe . He stays with us as we had to break. We open lower. We have the dax down 60 points. Call it 31 points. We will hearre from the founder later this morning. Stay with us. We will be back after a short break. Welcome back. Automobiles with sign screaming enough is enough. Hundreds of people trying to break through the barricades they have erected. What is happening on the ground right now . It is a very fluid situation on the ground between antioccupy protesters and democracy campaigners. There are several roads which have been barricaded for several weeks. Just a couple minutes ago there was a huge crowd of antioccupy campaigners protesting with democracy. They were saying, give back our roads. We saw them trying to get through the barricades. Some of them have lost business. The occupy and student protesters have stood their ground and are telling antioccupy protesters to leave, asking, how much will you pay to protest. Calling for him to resign. This has been a situation. Police, who are starting to retreat behind me, and they have moved on to a road parallel to me. That has been what has been happening this afternoon. Crowds protesting and facing off. When we talk about hong kong having enough, who are we talking about . Are we talking about authorities, businesses, locals . Is it all of them put together . Repeat the first sentence again . When we talk about the authorities having enough, is it just the authorities . Is it businesses as well . It is not the authorities saying they have had enough. Here is antioccupy campaigners. People who are against the occupy campaigners are generally made up of a Different Group of people. They say they want their businesses to come back because a lot of the roads have been closed off and also saying they have lost business. People like taxi drivers because a lot of the roads coming into this central area of hong kong have also been closed off. Vegas. Lets get some final thoughts from bill oneill. Wealth management. You know the political nuances in hong kong. The slowdown is china in china is not helping either. No, it is cause and effect. The effect in hong kong having much of an impact on the broader chinese economy. It is not that level of significance. Nor do i see an impact on the exchange board. Nevertheless, from the point of view of the markets, we have had better news this morning from china, which did suggest the export dynamic is providing some comfort. The big story is the slowdown in the profit sector. Likely the, its continued weak performance will affect growth. Even the 7. 3 may be under pressure. The big story is when they are going to respond. To go. K there is time what is the line in the sand for the chinese . I think it is 7 or there about. If for whatever reason the fixed asset investment, the international environment, or a big drop in cpi, if there is a reason for that being in doubt, clearly it would respond. A 2015 of them. When you look at the china slowdown, i know the supply side with iron ore. When you see iron ore down by 40 on the year, is that the canary in the coal mine . It reflects a move in the emerging markets story about composition. If china rebalancing means something, it is final consumer goods. The markets are trying to what is going forward. It is clearly how the Australian Dollar is where it is. We have covered absolutely everything. Thank you for joining us. Bill oneill. Oil,we head back, iron guess which way things are heading . Lower. We are back in two. Welcome back to on the move. 30 minutes into your trading day. This is how things are shaking up. The dax down by 46 points. Week, the600 last biggest week at law since 2012. No big rebound. Lets look at the only Industry Group rising today. The mining index. Export and import data both rising. Is up by 6 10 of 1 . By 16 since july the 29th. Ian break man to call the bottom in the basic resources index. Stock falling by 9 . Thomas cook himself fell to the lowest since april 2013, it fell by 9 . The index as a whole fell. Dragging Companies Like thomas cook down another 4 today. There are reports that the chief executive, one of the three co. Coos is ready to resign. They will meet today on the intention to resign, so he says. Your member september the first that Andrea Guerra stepped down. , with an as them yet unnamed ceo outside the company. A lot contain change at luxottica. Decliners but the only Industry Group rising are the minors. 40 days on the job . Yes. Problems at luxottica, here are top headlines. A Global Equity market selloff continues today under concerns that slowing Economic Growth will dampen consumer spending. Trillion were 1. 5 wiped off stock markets worldwide. The stoxx 600 had its worst week since may 2012. Stronger thangrew expected. The biggest increase since february 2013. Imports rose 7 . Economists had rejected a 2 decline. Slump at theperty Global Growth outlook the central bank spent more than 860 million on october 9, the drop in oil prices has exacerbated. Oil and natural gas constitute half of russian revenue. Lets keep the conversation on commodities. Brent is down 20 in 2014. Now, is the senior commodities strategist. As thattalk about crude has taken the headlines in the commodity markets. Inn 20 from the high hit june. I will not talk of a general demand and supply, i want to talk saudi arabia. Saudi arabia dropping places for croatia and maintaining supplies. What is the story . Is you alwayshing have these conspiracy theories in this context and we dont subscribe to them. Look at the output from saudi arabia and the last four years, it has varied between a. 8 Million Barrels a day to 2. 3 million. What the last four years have shown is that the saudis are willing to cut production when there is downward pressure on prices. The same all happen this time. In the process you will see lots of strange theories that they want to take market shares and squeeze out suppliers. Per barrel on brent question mark how much lower can it go . To pick theficult bottom but unless you subscribe to a global recession, it is starting to look limited. The saudis will cut. There is intensive evidence and we need more evidence. Also the very disappointing conception consumption in terms of oil will start to recover. The market should start to balance over the next three to six months. You may see a few more dollars bounds up at then we should start stabilizing. When looking at these kinds of things, we can almost ignore the awkward meetings most of the time. All we need to do is look at the data. The saudis will cut independently, that is what they have done in the past. Supplydemand dynamics . Is this a perfect storm or do something take more of the weight here . Is it more the demand or the supply . It is both to be honest. The only demand growth you have in the world is in asia. There is nothing in europe, partly because europe is not doing well. U. S. , they in the are downgrading their car sizes and so forth, so the only growth is in asia. So what the chinese are doing is very important. Part of the story that chinese data has been disappointing. You haveuestion that to answer is, will this continue . Is this the beginning of a slowdown in china in terms of oil consumption. We dont think so because they are consuming very little oil already. U. S. They contribute 18. As long as you believe that china is not going into a recession, we should see underlying growth for oil as a transportation fuel. Temporary setback probably. Assuming youre getting controlled lending to the chinese economy. Looking elsewhere, that fall in brent, is it a mirror image of the same scenario. Concerns about demand and no concerns about supply . Storyis like a leverage of the same. It is basically, increased supply from australia when china is slowing down. When you think about it, iron ore is used for steel, and if anything has gunned down and is chinese steeled the manned. China went through this enormous infrastructures spending spree that has come to an end. The time when iron ore production is going through the roof. It is already in the price. A big fall. My question, when do we get the bump . Will we ever get a turnaround . Over two years, i dont expect that. Be surprising. We want to look at india. India has disappointed for a number of years in terms of Infrastructure Spending, but with a new Indian Government maybe Infrastructure Spending is going to come back and be a new driver. India has the potential to become the new china in terms of commodity consumption. We really want to look for a bullish story and with stuff like iron or you have to look at india. Morebearer story would be Dollar Strength. Talk to me about how vital Dollar Strength has been to the downfall . I think you can justify what is happening in commodities by looking at demand and supply but the dollar adds to it partly because commodities are priced in dollars. Also there is a psychological element if there are speculators in the market when they see the dollar going up they get nervous about these positions. If you look at history and the longterm relationship between u. S. Dollar and commodity prices, it is not a steady relationship except for gold. Gold is the exception. When the dollar is going up you have to be careful about bidding on gold because gold tends to know gown. Go down. Where are you on gold . It was looking to 2000 per ounce at one point. The debate has shifted to outright deflation in the eurozone, can we go below a thousand dollars . Yes that is our forecast. We truly dislike gold. We think it was in a big bubble and now with the u. S. Economy inflation, no it is a combination of no inflation or member all the qe and gold were saying that qe will be hyperinflation and it hasnt happened. It hasnt happened and so it is a terrible environment for gold. Do you need a hike . Data will strong u. S. Be enough, but to get below 1000 you need higher interest rates. Where are you 2015 on gold . 1200. Und we think once we get into next year and the year after you will see much more downward pressure. We are not singled will collapse this year, it is in a bear market trend. Going to 1000 and lower, it will take a couple of years. As we had to the break, a quick look at brazil. The brazilian president ial elections, the countdown is beginning and heating up. Challenger will take more than 52 of the vote according to a census poll with the incumbent winning only 37 of the vote or it the most recent poll shows a 3 drop in the country. Ont is the biggest fall global stock. Inflation stores about 6. 5 . Lets check on the other s p markets. The dax down by 62 points. Here in london, almost 40 points lower. 0. 6 . They just get lower and lower. Back in two. Welcome back to i am Jonathan Ferro and london, this is on the move. The stock is getting crushed, down from 8 this morning. Raise 2. 7 billion dollars in its ipo. Hans nichols joins us from amsterdam. The5 minutes you speak to man himself, will he be happy . Because he like it just gave a speech upstairs after ringing the gong at the worlds oldest exchange. He said it he wanted a list of the sell orders and that he wasnt concerned about the price going down the cause that means they priced it right. Here is what we are getting at. Why europe, white will it be publicly traded here . And what is the point of having it longterm permanent investors . Your hedge fund isnt susceptible to redemption. We are also relaxing to the reeight latest on allergan, the latest on his activism role and how he hopes to bring activist approaches to shareholders and companies here in europe. The market is taking a pounding and he will be great on what is happening globally. The macro picture and those meetings in washington, we will try to keep it tight and keep it real and i want to ask him what it was like to ring the gong . They have a good gong here. It comes from indonesia with a lot of history here. The question, is there a future . Another question, why amsterdam . I know there was a rumor he wanted to list in london but why europe . We will be pressing him on that, his point here is that you have great access to Capital Markets here, and you can get a lot of difficult exposure. We will try to press him on that , why not london question mark why not frankfurt . Why not paris . He can make the case that the oldest shareholders are here, an interesting story, 1608, the first activist investors that were called crybaby shareholders. Is he a crybaby or an activist investor. Call that man a crybaby. In less than 30 minutes time, that is on the pulse. Lets look at one of our other top stories, the Health Care Worker who treated the a bola patient in dallas has herself contracted the virus. The first known case of the virus contracted on u. S. Soil. The cdc director says other Health Workers may also be infected. Unfortunately it is possible in the coming days that we will see additional cases of people. This is because the Health Care Workers who cared for this individual may have had a breach of the same nature of the individual who appears to have a preliminary positive test. Ryan, we asked the question of how bad this could get, a lot of people say it is inevitable. Cdche problem is that the set themselves up for a fall because they told everyone that they could control this virus and a lot of people read that to mean that there wont be additional cases and now we have an additional case. You hear them say there might be more, why . Because all the other Health Care Workers, it looks like all the other Health Care Workers who were in contact with the gentleman who died, used the same protocol. They put the suits on the same way and took them off the same way. There is a concern now that obviously that pool of people that were exposed in texas, might also come down there is a difference between additional growthual cases and big and a big spread of the virus elsewhere. It is a concern, to Health Workers in particular. You talk about the reaction and the Response Time being delayed, lets talk about how prepare they are right now. The hospitals themselves, the nurses union they are saying they are not as prepared as they would like to be and that is quite interesting. Unionad of the nurses saying that a small fraction of nurses have actually gone through the whole drill of dealing with an ebola patient in a controlled environment. A havent practiced putting the suits on, i practiced taking them off. Getting the suit off is almost as complicated as getting it on because if you touch yourself, there is a risk of transmission, particularly if you touch her mouth. Which might be what we had here. There are a lot of people looking at that, state protocols are in place at hospitals throughout the country. There are 5000 hospitals in the United States. People are saying maybe we have a problem not just in texas and then we are asking ourselves is it necessary to treat every hospital location at every hospital they may pop up at. Europe is one step ahead and europe can study it. We saw on london that they have already started the stress reversals, that might be key. In see Market Reaction travel and leisure stocks, and my not going on my cruise because of this . Fewer flights because of this . What is the real demand westmark demand . Leisure and travel was one of the worst down 7 , its worst week in three years. Down again today. The answer is, investors think that Companies Like carnival are going to be hit. Carnival, obviously a lot of people arent in a stop you carnival cruises but carnival has already had to reroute their cruise ships and that has a cost. To watch, itng depends how bad you think the referred going to get, barra berg say that it is overdone and it really comes down to what you think about the crisis in multiple think there is a lot more of a scare to this than reality. Thank you very much. , weg up in on the move told you about Pershing Square, another stock planning to make its day to day, we will talk about the companys ambition. Akin two. Back in the two. Chrysler makes its trading debut on the New York Stock Exchange. It is the seventh largest automaker and is aiming to increase vehicle sales by 60 . Lets take a look at chryslers best and worst performing models. Chrysler in the hands of the toest owner fiat is coming the New York Stock Exchange. How have they been doing . In 2000 13 they sold 1. 8 million cars and trucks which is better than 2009 but not nearly as good as 2005. Chrysler has been the smallest of the big three and that has not changed. Gm remains the biggest and 40 still number two. In 2013 their topselling division was dodge, the topselling dodge was the caravan minivan. Which makes sense because they invented the minivan in 1983. The worst selling dodge was the durango. The next bestselling division was jeep which they bought from the motors in 1997. The bestselling jeep was the grand cherokee. Ram a relatively new division spun off takes third place. It is almost a one Model Division which makes sense why the majority of its cells were model pickups. The Worst Division for chrysler was, well, chrysler. Its minivan, the town country, dominated which is a good and bad thing. It capture the largest market share but that category is shrinking. I cant believe that company is associated with ferrari but it is. We will be speaking with the ceo and the chairman live from the New York Stock Exchange later today. We are also speaking to Pershing Square ceo and that is one stock on the move. Pershing square down 7 this morning. Its at 24. 34 right now. Equity markets look like this. To him a theek worst week since 2012. The dax is down 33 points. Rebound this morning. If you want to talk markets, you know where i am, i am on twitter. Differencee a bit of for french fund yields . The 10 year yields 1. 5 . England is borrowing the 10 years at 1 . Back in two 8. The french finance minister said your rep stagnation it chronic. Become going to dutch. Going dutch. An exclusive interview. Cruising. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Later, we will speak to the ceo and chairman