Welcome back to countdown. I am mark martin. Barton. Welcome to the program. We are getting some news. And recall was announced they are recalling 61 7 million 6. 17les worldwide million vehicles worldwide. They will be recalled in japan america. In north stock is down 3. 7 as we speak. We will bring you more details on that. A big recall by toyota. We will bring you all the big stores that you need to be aware of. In sydneye taken off trading. Woolworths. A few companies called that. Do not get them confused. We will speak to the David Jones Group later on. Accusednited states has russia of using agents to spark unrest and ukrainian authorities have sent troops into the second biggest city of separate tests. How is russia reading the Economic Situation . The kremlin is calling on Russian Companies to delist shares from born exchanges. There are a handful of them. The issue is if they will do that. We have heard from the investment czar. He says it is not mandatory and it is up to the companies themselves. If you look at the Russian Companies listed on the moscow youforeignexchanges, will see that volume is 50 higher outside of the country. That narrowed to almost nothing in the last year. Iny are doing a good job encouraging russian businesses to list at home. Interesting. We will see if it discourages other companies from listing abroad. We have seen cash and carry holding off on an ipo. They do not want to test the market at this point. Russian stocks were already be cheapest on any major exchange. A rebound from the march lows. That is right. The big overhang on the stock is, will there be economic sanctions or not. Investors think not. , i think, on is the whole, is the economic forecast. 0. 5 anddowngraded to just over one percent. That is quite a correction and they are blaming less demand on russian gas and capital flight aince crime yet began crime began. It looks like the ukrainians are having positive success where they have launching antiterrorist operation. They have cleared one of the three government buildings in the east that was captured by the socalled protesters. 200 mileser city away, it is a difficult lace and the armed men are Still Holding a state security holding. Ng. Buildi who is to blame and who is doing the blaming . It is clear that the Russian Special forces and agents have been the catalyst behind the chaos of the last 24 hours. Some have been arrested and exposed. That theally as clear United States and allies will hesitate to use the question to ask yourself, as an investor, is whether there is a question of economic sanctions and Vladimir Putin does not send troops into the ukraine. The likelihood of doing that is 50 . On russiabe sanctions if you messes with the ukrainians . That is what you want to think about. The imf is relying on the United States to help with the weak recovery in emerging markets. We have the details. The Global Growth forecast what they said about russia was interesting. The economy and russia is 1. 3 . G for that is down from the forecast in january. It is what the chief economist told us. That is indicative of what they think right now. It was was computed when not fully and play. Given what has happened and the fact that this is likely to lead to capital outflows from russia and the deterioration away from Investment Climate in russia, we are down. He killed the forecast of russia with doing that. Reasonableuld be a guess for russia and is a base case scenario. Russia is going to suffer weaker growth. The United States will drive the Global Economy and offset russia and brazil. I do not think there is big surprise in that analysis. We will continue to see a recovery in the u. S. Economy. We have the fed minutes later today. That will be a big part. It will be about rate hikes. Rise after she would he ends qe ends. Economicry of 2016tions for 2050 and have big outliers and there will be a debate on that particular topic that will frame things later this evening. That sets us up for a hawkish set of minutes. I know you will be listening and. Wont you . Lets get a preview of what is coming up. Kong. Awson is in hong it is a cheesy situation. That is dreadful. At universityays when we did Dominos Pizza . Elle is going to double doubleerra is going to production. Thisinly, we are seeing boost mozzarella output. Year, justext for you. I dont think that you could eat that many pizzas, mark. I do like pizza. Why the fed minutes will be fascinating. We will be back after a short break. It is time for company news. Breaking news from toyota. They are recalling over 6 million vehicles worldwide. Pots largest retailer will take 2 billion for david jones. They are the largest retail takeover since 2007. David jones shares rose the most on record. Aluminum demand will exceed production this year and bring an end to surplus driven by chinese output. It will grow 7. 5 . The Company Reported betterthanexpected earnings. Welcome back. It is 6 13 in london. The Federal Reserve will release its minutes from their meeting tonight. Let us see what we can expect from our analyst. Thank from joining you for joining us. They are more hawkish than janet yellin. It is. We have a rotation of regional president s in january. Janet yellin has been missing uberdove. D as the the views reflecting of the entire fm oc . Indeed. Maybe even more than member nikki used to. Months after the end of qe tapering. The minutes will be fascinating and we will see further light shed on the prognosis. What will this tell us about the optimal control theory . Given the comments at the , the theoryence that you would leave rates lower temporarily for the cost of unemployment. If you like the theories before , it is the same as the press conference. Talk to me how dovish or hawkish groups of people are. Will there be big changes . We going to have new voices coming on board . Newborn as is tend to be more hawkish. Tend to be more hawkish. They are more likely to adopt a hawkish stance in their tenure. Lady did notd the arrive until july and august. Dissent ink for august or september. Dissent . We have not had a lot of that. There will be a shock to the market, unless it is kris aged presaged. He has proven to be a slight dissenter. Joined by he will be some comrades in arms. Spring is when it could happen. Productionantastic figures yesterday and not a day goes by without surprisingly good uk figures. Even carney has mentioned that this may happen before the election, i think that was his comment. That continues to be the case. Between the ukce and the u. S. I read a book once. It was called a short history of tractors in the ukraine. Novel that had nothing to do with the economy of the ukraine. It reminded me how agriculturally based it was. , how willing the ecb is to loosen monetary policy. Is tecting rejecting cting is an unrewarding venture. If russia retaliates to gastions by cutting off supplies on the agricultural rise. The rice will it is less keen to ease in the face of economic performance. Economyif we see the deteriorating. We see the situation escalate and signs that the economy is weakening. Let us put it that way. Thank you very much. Stay with us. Here, we will take a short break. Welcome back. This is countdown. You on thedate breaking story. 6. 6 million vehicles. To according there are accidents and injuries that have been caused as a to 2004. D it goes back all part of the toyota pledge to improve. They have been criticized for covering up information and being too slow to claw back more in 20092010. Es this is the second major recall for toyota is here. This year. They have extended losses and the stock is down by more than what it was. The chairman of market ukrainianaid that the crisis could have unpredictable consequences. The talk is been of the ecb qelementing a massive program. Eow likely is the q implementation of the one trillion euro program . By the end of the year . 75 , probably. It is the first tool that mario draghi reaches for in the toolbox. It is an unconventional conventional. Great effect on the euro value. I think the cut in rates is more likely first. As you suggest, would things have to deteriorate to necessitate the necessary level of agreement from the ecb, you know, Board Members . It would have to get worse, terms of inflation. Everyone expects balance in the next 23 months. If that does not become apparent thate flatlined at 0. 5 , would be enough to drag them into negative deposit rates. What does that mean for the euro meanwhile . Many have called and predicted the dollar ascendancy in 2014. It has not played out that way. No. Where does the euro go from here . Lower. We now know fair and square that the euro is in the sights of the ecb. It is interesting that mario a comment oneered the euro rather than have it dragged out of him. He pushed and mentioned it early in the conference. Let us talk about another area of the world where people are concerned. China. Do you see the headwinds as manageable . Yes. They are entirely manageable. This is a government that seems to have its fingers on the controls squarely. They are realistic on a medium and longterm plan. They use resources, in terms of fiscal and monetary measures and 4 trillion in reserves. Thank you very much. 6 26 in london and we are going to tell you what the chinese love affair with pizza is good news for fonterra. Welcome to countdown, i am barton. This is what the euro dollar looks like. And it is back up above the preecb levels. This has nothing to do with the ecb and everything to do with that conversation at the Federal Reserve for the first ray kite rate hike. They changed their call on euro dollar based on the u. S. Recovery. Down fromg for 1. 30 1. 40. That is a big change. Here are todays Bloomberg Top headlines. Regulators have approved tougher leverage caps for americas biggest banks. Including j. P. Morgan chase and bank of america. Capital to five percent of their assets, higher than their overseas competitors. The eu is moving to give shareholders a veto over the pay packages for executives at publicly traded companies. Financial services chief Michelle Barnier introduced the policy. An australian ship has reacquired underwater signals consistent with those committed by airplane black boxes. Allowing teams to narrow the search area for missing malaysian airliner. No debris has been found in the area of the southern indian ocean. Luxury earnings kick off with numbers for today. Theing a gain in sales as company tries to strip away its logo and earn back its exclusive reputation. Our European Business correspondent has all the details. How are they paying off so far . Howhis is reminding us enormous lvmh is. They go into booze and champagne. Forever they are a broad company. What everyone focuses in on his fashion and leather. That is said to be up six percent. It is interesting going into what is hot and what is not. What is hot seems to be the similar tactics they are employing. Strip away those logos, fewer suddenly Deutsche Bank thinks that will pay off towards the end of the year but right now not so much a turning point. What is not remains a key concern. China is still tough. Russia and ukraine, with attention delay purchases because a lot of russians spend theres a broad. Sales in russia were off 30 since the volatility. Overall there is still some key concern. It seems there is a bellwether in the luxury good industry. What are the trends across the industry . The chinese question remains across the board. I read some fascinating stats on the chinese. Chinese change in demand. And now be about status it is about craftsmanship. All about the way things are made. Subtle highend luxury. Wealthy surest about the craftsmanship. They might not go for the brands abroad. Mademight go for chinese luxury goods. What are they likely to tell us about the outlook . Will it improve or get better is to mark what we should look out for his foreign exchange. We have seen weakening in latin america and the russian ruble. Eventually that will not be such a concern. Also keep an eye on general underperformance for the rest of the market. We think many analysts say to buy lily Vuitton Louis vuitton. It news for the worlds tarast dairy exporter, fun fonterra. University, dominoes pizza. Is in by foza nterra. The biggest exporter to china. What is happening here is the iszarella, the demand increasing. Boost mucho irrelevant output to 50,000 metric tons per year. I september next year enough for 300 and 350 million pizza. Demand for cheese will rise this year and the year after. The chinesesees consumer class double. Therefore fast food demand will increase. Doubling offices in china and all this because of the changing tastes. And 13 of their revenue comes from china. That has got me feeling hungry. Are you one of those people who could eat pizza anytime of the day . I think everything in its place. It is barely 6 a. M. Thank you. Wallace is africa buying shares in a but jones. Jumping in this mornings trade the most on record. We will hear from david jones chairman after a short break. Time for todays companies is. We had some breaking news from toyota. Recalling more than 6. 5 million vehicles worldwide. 4he recall includes the rav sport utility. It which is raised 2. 3 billion last month plans to find more plans for the new finance unit has created to lease sedans to business customers. Asy want to boost reduction exports to china began and the brand expensive era. Contracting and investment. The cash infusion gives the unprofitable retail chain more reading room. It bought half the shares in that American Apparel stock offering. Staving off the risk of default. It is the biggest investor second only to its chief executive. Welcome back to countdown. The time is 6 41 a. M. Taken of david jones have off in sydney. All because of a takeover bid, will worth. Woolworth. Thank you for joining us. On the subject of this deal can you tell us what you think it is that will works woolworth will be able to do with david jones . They will enable us to do is execute our strategy more efficiently and more quickly because of their combined scale as a group. More quickly do you think that time is of the essence here . We have seen images in recent weeks of h m opening up in australia and the queues outside and the stores that were created. Do you feel the pressure to compete with some of these new arrivals . Absolutely. That is the point. The Northern Hemisphere is invading the southern hemisphere. We have increased competition and otherhop and h m retailers from the Northern Hemisphere. Fromve the online threat some of the major american retailers. In a situation like that a small retail or in australia needs to compete effectively. This is a scale. That is the compelling reason from a Strategic Point of view why we recommend it. It sounds like an ominous competitive environment. You are the oldest retailer founded in 1838. Why did you decide on this deal when others have been offered in the past as you said no to them . This is more compelling. This is above our intrinsic valuation. This is above the analyst estimate. Him andcompelling from this is a multiple of 24 times future earnings. If you look at any International Comparison that is significantly above anything in the marketplace. It is cash. Is the Northern Hemisphere invasion good for Australian Retail question mark competition is good because it makes us tougher and stronger. It is has forced us to do this deal in order to beef up our skill. Is the economy at the moment . The imf cut its estimate for the next two years. What is your reading on the strength or weakness that lies ahead . Think that is another reason why we find this a compelling deal. If you look at per capita income in the next two years it will be more challenging than it has been in the past for all kinds of reasons. Discretionary income will come under pressure and Department Stores rely on this income. It will get tougher for Department Stores like us in the future which is why we think scale is the most effective way to compete. The economy, visit weather the storm created by slow growth in the mining sector, can the economy look through those factors . That depends on a couple of significant issues. One is can we [inaudible] and can we address the budget deficit. The demographic changes are taking place in australia are with us forever. Threats,re the biggest you set out some of the threats coming from the Northern Hemisphere. That is clearly what is on your mind as you look at the yesterday and retail scene. Internet competition has been ramping up. And wage demand. What are the biggest threats to your business despite aside from the Northern Hemisphere invasion . The movement here in australia which is attacking Department Stores. At the top and to the bottom and and the kmarts and targets of this world. You have got defensive movement i have just described. And you have got a situation where Department Stores like us have got builtin cost of labor Going Forward. And in rental Going Forward and challenging store sales Going Forward. It is a competitive environment. Thank you for joining us today. The chairman for david jones. Flying cars have always been the stuff of science fiction. I still want that car in back to the future. At company has created the worlds first road and air legal flying car. The basic breakthrough is the way it drives. That is why we can make an airplane stable on the road. Them is robert doing have developed the first flying car in the world. My partner started flying and flying is cumbersome. You take off at a place for you do not want to leave and you end up in a place where you do not want to be. The vehicle was built within existing regulations. The roadone ok from authorities and they can be sold in any european country. For driving you need your driving license for car and for rpl, for need a bpl or gyrocopter. Policing,terests from military organizations, aid organizations, antennas and future . Newton Technology Get to new possibilities. Likeu can come to work that now. You will be more likely to find me in a fly delorean. About scotch. We will have that story next. Welcome back to countdown. Has been away for a couple of days. Take it away. I am in that point in my last gathering is every a hen party or stag. Is about how this is one of the most expensive places to live in england. Multimillion pound houses are being taken over by groups of hands and stags. It is causing uproar among the locals because they have been kept up all night. There are extraordinarily shaped objects hung hung around the place and that is calling causing havoc. There is a problem going on. The kind of story that Ryan Chilcote does every day. Been therea has playground of foot ahlers for many years. Footballers for many years. Should we stay with football . Psg last night. They lost the first leg 31 and they had to win at least i two 2nil. Nd they won before the good colleague took this picture. She is from new york she loves her soccer and there was. That was the lineup of the teams. The manager has never lost a quarterfinal in the champion we are. Where all at at all the top places. Out tomorrow . Has teamedid beckham scotch. Troduce a it will have a touch of butterscotch and toffee. That does not sound like scotts for the serious scotch drinker. It sound like an ice cream. Doesnt have a female Marketing Strategy perhaps . It. Love after my Television Career i plan on introducing all kinds of things rented in my name. Cologne and scotch. Quick to have an amazing line of ties. Adjust why is it just pdiddy . I have a story here i am tweeting. It might when you lots of followers. Twitter is bad for your marital health. It is a study. About peoples real marriages. This is a study by a journalist and doctoral student. No word on what institution belongs to. Users experience twitter related conflict and negative relationship outcomes regardless of the relationship. There is a link between how involved you are and how much respond on twitter and to people. Or the girlfriends get jealous of all the followers. Just get jealousy on the amount of time you spend. So there you go. The conclusion is dialed back on the social media if youre having problems at home. If youre having problems at home. s future fiancee, get on with it. We want a hen party and the sandbags, dont we . Thee have dropped standards. We had better take up rate. Break. We will have more on the imf Global Forecast and the u. S. Earnings season. All our guests will be talking about russia and ukraine. We will be back up shortly. U. S. Secretary of state john kerry accuses russia of using forces entered agents to spark unrest. Toyota hits the brakes. Recalling more than 6. 5 million cars around the world. It is the reporting season for all things luxury with lvmh up first. Welcome to countdown. This wednesday morning. Reporters are ready to deliver the stories that will drive your day. Yan chilcote has the latest eeces possible return. At the luxury reports. As lvmh before we get to the situation on the ground, how has russia been resting on the economic front . Russian encouraging shareholders to delist them. The board according to the russian business daily said they will look at this. They will not necessarily do it but they are going to look at this and consider delisting their shares. They are listed in moscow. How many other companies will follow suit question mark some have just listed abroad. There are two types. They are listed on hong kong but london halves has the bulk of them. Of their Share Trading over the last month since crimea began outside of rush is 50 higher than it is on the moscow exchange. There is a nice liquidity to be had abroad. There is a disincentive. The russian durant says this is an issue of Economic Security and you should at least look at it. They remain cheaper stocks in the world at least among the major stock markets. We have seen more companies weighing in on whether you should buy them. Ingc changing its weight from neutral to underweight. You get the ukrainian push back. A big antiterrorist operation underway. The second biggest city in the country. They have cleared a government building their yesterday. Lujans shpoint is luthanks. People did walk out of that building. Building being occupied. Finger. Is pointing the at russia. It is clear that Russian Special forces and agents have been the catalyst behind the chaos. Some have been arrested and exposed. Equally as clear must be the reality that the u. S. And our allies will not hesitate to use 21stcentury tools to hope russia accountable for 19thcentury behavior. The question you have got to ask, as an investor or someone who wants to do business with russia is, can there be sanctions against russia, these s. Onomic sanction analysts say there is a one in two chance that russia will go in. If they do not go in and it continues to be perceived as stirring things up, would that be enough to provoke sanctions . I do not know the answer. That is something you want to Pay Attention to. Greece may return to the bond market. David tweed is in berlin with the entire story. What is the plan . We might be able to hear some of it leaking into the market. Is going to return to the markets today. That was late last week. Come to the market they will have to pay for it. Well above the record they paid back in the day when people were chasing after greek bonds. They went down to as low as two point 71 at one stage. They will have to pay a lot more than portugal and the other countries that have gone back to the bond markets. I suppose if they can get back to the bond markets it is a good story to tell. You have got an economy that is not really recovering. The jury is out about whether or not it will come out of recession. They were aiming for sale by the end of the first half. They seem to be rushing this forward. Why now . It does look as if theyre trying to get about now. It is all about politics. One of the reasons is we have the may 25 european elections coming up. The Prime Minister in greece wants to be able to tell his people a good story. Imagine if he can say look what is happening, Foreign Investors are returning to our market and buying our bonds. That is strong to tell hisng story electorate. Especially at a time when it looks like the coalition is holding on with a wafer thin majority. They get trounced by the opposition and then it was very difficult for him to sit there and say we have a mandate to govern with only one or two seats in his favor. That is one of the reasons. Think about it. That Greek Economy has gone through a murderous time. Tie five percent wiped out and 50 billion euros. Will it start to grow again . One. Ury is out on that thank you. David tweed in berlin. The imf released its latest forecast. Relying on the u. S. To help the World Economy withstand recoveries. Jonathan ferro has the details. The imf has come in for lot of criticism about the quality of their forecast. On russia it will be no different. The Russian Economy Ministry fall. Hat it could the imf are more optimistic. They put out their forecast and grow 1. 3 . D it is the comment by olivier gave it more. The 1. 2 was computed when crimea was not fully in place. Given what has happened in the fact that this is likely to lead to capital outflows from russia. Maybe an increase in the policy rate. The 1. 3 . Ise has called into question the revise. When he said is the u. S. Will drive Global Growth. This will drive up the debate. We have the minutes from the last meeting. It was a fascinating event. Not because of the press conference. People were overly pr occupied. Forget all of that noise. What happened was the economic projections. The median forecast was one percent. Significantome upgrades. There were some pretty big outliers as well. This matters because these are the voices that potentially could stand out in the minutes that are released later on. Look for color on that conversation. It will be indicative of the conversations at the fed Going Forward. Thank you very much. Coming up, Caroline Hyde is looking at luxury. What is hot and what is not for lvmh. We are getting updates from one of the biggest luxury players in the world. Fewer stores and higher prices. I will be back to tell you whether these tactics are paying off and what we could expect for the rest of the luxury industry. Kicks off the u. S. Earnings season and in the wake of the tech stock selloff, our cashguest says been on rich old tech. Time for todays company news. Recallingsix point 6. 5 cars worldwide. South africas biggest retailer will pay for australia retailer david jones. It will create the southern hemispheres biggest thirdbiggest Department Store chain. Record. Ose the most on and alcoa, the largest u. S. Aluminum producer predicting an end to an almost decayed long surplus turned by chinese output. It maintained its forecast to grow seven percent. Reportedompany betterthanexpected firstquarter earnings. Past seven. Minutes alcoa kicking kicking off the early season. Lets set this up and see what it looks like. Theonly season looks like u. S. And europe. Thank you very much for coming in. Make allow does not summer and all those things. In terms of what alcoa has to as it the earnings season looks to you, what do you look ahead to . We need to see decent Earnings Growth in the u. S. Valuation since around 16 times pay. Growthe to have earnings otherwise will be falling back from those lofty peaks. People will be looking for Earnings Growth. Well be looking for signs that Capital Expenditures are picking up. Estimates have come down. There were six point six percent and now they are a mere one percent. That is the name of the game. Reduce the expectations. If you compare the estimates to where they were in january we would not be beating them. It also happens a recorder. Every quarter. Guide thedo gently analysts down. I do not think it is going to be a major issue. Much more the issue will be the strength of emerging markets. China has seen somewhat of a slowdown. Russia is still an important trading partner. As we heard the threat of sanctions, the question is how that hits a lot of European Countries who are exposed to russia in the way we expect them to be. Gains ismpany meeting atlantic utilities. Not cyclically. Socks with her driven by changes in the economy. Is that going to last question mark i hope not. It is a sign that people are retreating to defensives because of the selloff in the more momentum driven stocks. If that were to continue that would suggest that markets would have more downside which is why people are retreating to defensive sectors like utilities. I was looking at utilities as a specific example. There is a high correlation when the utility sector outperforms, stock market volatility goes up subsequently. Market volatility has already gone up. It is not surprising to see utilities having done well. If they continue [inaudible] technologyabout stocks. You contrasted old tech with new tech. Is that because old tech is paying dividends in some cases and that is something that investors should be interested in . Are big levers but not big believers in the gogo momentum stocks like even amazon. The valuation is it is not old tech. They do not take it dividend. e. Y still have a pa p microsoft will be there. They have started to try to penetrate mobile phones with giving away windows eight free. They are making a big push. Changing to try to capture that demand. They throughout cash like nobodys business and they still belowon a p e which is that of the s p 500. There have been others. Do you think we have a bubble in that kind of from the ipos or it is not just the social social networking stocks that have fallen. Keenan kit digital, it is a one product company. They have released hundreds of games of which one has been slightly successful. When you think about the hit rate, one after several hundred, the chances of repeating that in their the near future is low. I would not buy to that. I am also quite pleased in a bizarre way to see that areanies like boohoo. Com below the offer price. It is healthy. You do not expect to see anything on this season. At the rate that people in the u. S. Job market have quit foodservice jobs because they are probably on to see something else. And this is consistent with the 3. 2 increase in wage growth. It can be a forward indicator for what is going to happen to wages. What do you think the earnings season will tell us . At will be early to see that. Wage growthe that in the u. S. Is picking up not in europe but in the u. S. It is picking up and that is consistent with where the Unemployment Rate is now. People move to parttime employment or something slightly better. There is a big skill shortage. Tol need to people need move up the income scale. My number one worry is china. I think people are focused too much on russia and ukraine. In terms of the Global Economy it is a blip. Russia has had its problem said it still has the same structural problems. One guest on saying it is not the next financial crisis. My worry is we could have a misstep by the authorities. Economycentrally run and so far they have done a great job of Going Forward there is always the chance of a mistake. That is my greatest worry. Thank you. We are roughly 40 minutes away from the start of todays european equities session. Earnings from lvmh. Be ahe reports made turning point for the luxury goods maker. Welcome back. It is 7 24 a. M. European luxury numbers kick off today. Lvmh is posting again in sales as it tries to strip away its logo as an exclusive reputation. Is it paying off . It may well be. Seven percent in organic sales. Well forest boding the rest of the group. It is a huge conglomerate. It does a call, perfume, and jewelry. Wheren and leather are they are deploying tactics. This is what is hot for lvmh. Get fewer lower goes fewer logos. They are increasing the quality of the goods theyre using and trying to regain that aura of exclusivity which got slightly removed in the likes of asia particular where there were too bags. Ogoed burberry became too much of a success. What is hot is the continued weaknesses. We like to see nervousness and volatility. Says russiansada are buying. It is a bellwether for the sector. What other trends . It should be fair and what they are going to be experiencing in china. We can interpret what they will experience. Gucci had the same problem. It was too common and theyre trying to scale back as well. This is fascination fascinating researched and mintel. Ne by u. S. Stop looking to the labels. In ukraine remain high in the streets and authorities struggled to do with separatist unrest. More on how the unrest is impacting the market. Welcome back to countdown. Jonathan pharaoh. 137. 86. Rodollar we could expect german exports out this morning taking a slower in the last hour. You talk to people where we go from here, it has nothing to do with europe and the ecb what to do with a first rate hike at the Federal Reserve. Tohas pushed Goldman Sachs change their call on this one. Theyre looking for 1. 30 over the next 12 months revised down m the one dollar 40 1. 40. U. S. Regulators have approved tougher leverage caps for americas biggest inks. A lenders will now need to hold capital equal to five percent of their total assets. Higher than their overseas competitors who must hold at least 3 . The eeo is moving to give shareholders a veto over pay packages for executives at publicly traded companies. It will require a shareholder [inaudible] at least every three years. An australian ship listening for picked up pings has signals from underwater. No debris has been found in the c, and the area of the southern indian ocean. In ukraine escalated. Authorities have sent Security Forces into the second biggest city of separatist. Joining us for how the markets are digesting the most recent event is chris weaver. What are but mere put ins underlying intentions for the east of ukraine . As we are secondguessing what is coming out of the kremlin. Andve come back from moscow people take the view that this is only ever about crimea in requiring as russians see it russian territory that was given to ukraine. People do not believe that there is any real intention to invade any other part of ukraine or east ukraine. Theys do not believe are nervous there could be some escalation. The action is nervousness rather than a fear. Does that tell us we have seen the worst of the decline . Iti think again obviously depends on whether there is any further military escalation. Arecially is if there sanctions which is what people fear. In investors minds we believe that there is no risk of further sanctions unless there is further military they do not leave it will happen. They see federalism in ukraine and some autonomy on the east of ukraine and that might allow for some greater engagement from russia and that part of the ukraine. Theyrms of the markets probably have seen the bottom in the middle of march. I do nott cats expect to see markets making progress. The best we could hope for is trading in some narrow range. The risk is not going to erially diminished under until we get to the president ial election. Russian economy all about at the moment . It is hard to detach what is going on in politics and the russian relationship between russia and the west. It is not only about crimea. What else is going on . Has been an extra problem added to what was already becoming a large list. The economy slipped last year because of a lack of confidence because of slowdown in Consumer Spending particularly because of a reversal in investment. And investors were losing confidence last year and they were slowing down. At the beginning of last year growthat the economy would three. 5 . It grew 1. 3 . The numbers for january even before the escalation of the ukrainian crisis showed that the economy started at less than 1 . If there is a Silver Lining it is the fact that the economy was slowing anyway and investors were questioning, that is what we saw with the discussion. That sort of lesson the below. Lessened the blow. Speculativet have a build up of money coming into russia. Now looking to hit the exit button. There is a big buildup in 2007 and in early 2008. The second crucial factor is the oil prices holding steady. In 2008 the price was collapsing. It means that the budget is balanced and the Balance Sheet is in good shape. It gives the government some financial options. Hopefully we will get to this into a calmer time. They have options they can use for stimulus to boost growth. What can they do to counter the negative affects . There is also just things that forever. On the card efficiency, pension reform, privatization and so on and so forth. Crimea will be a big focus. The government want to make sure that crimea is deemed to be a success. We talked about sochi earlier. There has been a big shift already from focusing on developing sochi as some sort of tourist destination. Now it is all about crimea. You will see a great deal of initiatives in that area. I would not expect to see anything until there is some calming of the situation. That would be a waste of firepower. After the may 25 election and hopefully some engagement at that point, we might see if we are going to see anything in terms of measures. Privatization is one thing that has been talked about. The government is saying we can get back to privatization and worry less about the valuations. Get the program back on. Some of the other initiatives was have been moving very slowly. If the government is serious about broadening the economy and that restoring gross, they have got to push things like anticorruption, moving faster up the world and generally promoting the whole idea of being war foreign investments. Last year was successful in that area. Trackave to get back on in 2015. Thanks for joining us. Next stepa elect its Prime Minister. How they stack up to the rest of the world. And which ice cream shop gave away free Ice Cream Cones around the world. That is next on hotshots. Its time for hotshots. A look at some of the most compelling images of the day. Dirtbike races to to the and all ages took to the track. Not to be left out the womens race winner fetched 1500. Now on to the sweet stuff. Ben jerrys ice cream shops opened their doors to give away a free Ice Cream Cone to anyone who wanted it. The companys and is billed as a celebration of these, love, and ice cream. Festivals largest kicked off. Has attracted more than 400,000 participants. Event. Been the main we were talking about our favorite ben jerrys. Mine is cherry garcia, which has disappeared. You cannot find it. That is the one i love. I will eat anything with salted caramel sauce, chocolate, and whipped cream. Don. There you go. Click sounds about right. I am very good at it. Futures for the moment are little changed in terms of what we are saying on the cac 40 and the dax. Equities posted yesterday the first gain about through four days. The nasdaq rebounded from its worst of the threeday slump. We are talking about the tech slump yesterday. They have rebounded. They look pretty much unchanged but we have movers. A couple of the carmakers. Over 6. 7 million vehicles being recalled. We will have a look at any impact here on safety concerns trade we had a recall last from gm. What it means for consumers and the car sector. The long and complicated process of electing indias next Prime Minister continues. While it is notoriously difficult to set up shop, the country boasts many homegrown billionaires. Joining us now with a breakdown. Where should we be looking into across alionaires, range of industries. It is a pretty diversified group of guys. They spend a lot of time in the u. K. We have the fewest number among our index of the top 300 people. They have about as much wealth collectively as the 16 billionaires of brazil. Industriesreliance and just a few we have chosen from i. T. [inaudible] worlds wealthiest energy billionaire. And he is a u. K. Based guy. Houses on four billionaires row. 40 million . These are this is a for senate of monthly salary. If you compare theyre probably quite cheap. That is an interesting point. Moderation, he has a network of 22 billion dollars and took a pay cut as examples for his people. Who were the voting for in this election . The billionaire. They have gotten behind this guy. They see him as someone who is probusiness and he will strengthen the rupee and ring back foreign investment. They have put their eggs in his basket. They want foreign investment. These are businesses that have gone abroad. They are not the sort of investors who are going to be impacted. Very internationally focused industries. You look at a guy like this who asked Company Started in the cooking oil business. When they government kicked out farm businesses he created a software company. In the 1990s the government opened up the industry again and he transformed into someone who serviced the outside Software Makers which he could not compete. Waswhen y2k got drama, he theyre very internationally focused. Let me know how your man on the street, your woman on the street views these billionaires . The average wage. Are they viewed as an inspiration . I am not an expert on the hindu culture. Story tower in7 mumbai that houses six people. His children and his wife and mother. He has 50 a 50 seat Movie Theater and a swimming pool. It is a 500 million home. I do not know whether the indians will look at that and say i can reach that or this is awfulful i got display of wealth. Rex Caroline Hyde is here. We are getting calls for the luxury industry to rise higher. Bell, the after the numbers for the First Quarter expected to be strong, and 7 increase in organic sales. In large part that has to do with dutyfree but also watches and jewelry. The backfor luxury on of lvmh. Rise 1 or 2 . It it will be signing a syndicated credit industry. Getting more security on financing. We could see that that story playing into the equities. I leave you with unilever. By. 5 of 1 . Means the value of your shares go higher. Very exposed to consumers. Ben you have a favorite jerrys . No. You are too fussy. Any ice cream. It is always good. Thank you. We will be looking forward to of thety march minutes Federal Reserve and fomc. Welcome back to countdown. Is 7 51ime in london a. M. Jonathan ferro is here. The fed minutes long large on our evening agenda. They do. It is a bit of surprise for many people. Rates might rise six months ds. Er qe and enm at someooking for point you have to to start a hike in rates. At 4 . Ople at looking the conversation around that subject is going to be quite revealing and it could give you a bit of a hawkish stance on the minutes. Hawkish about the fortunes of the u. S. Economy. They will drive the economy Going Forward. The u. K. , another upward revision. Looking ahead to this meeting , they were calling this George Osbornes i told you so talk. That has been going on for 12 months. He deserves a bit of that. Is stared he austerity does not work, all those lines from the imf. Fundamentals, the debate will rage on. Ithe will rise and deliver tomorrow. Futures, it has been a funny few days since the end of last week. Stocks are yesterday have taken a bit of a beating. Futures pointing a little bit higher. Get thatwe going to 10 correction on the s p 500, we have not had one for 22 months. Goldman sachs said the probability of getting that 10 correction, 60 seven percent. Some might consider that quite high. Had one fore not two years . It seemed to come down to the basic idea that we have not had one in a while. Bottom line. The dollar yen. Money going into the yen yesterday. A lesson, look at the headlines from yesterday. We have room to do more and do the opposite. That is classic centralbank speak. Giving you absolutely nothing. If you are one of those isnomists who think the boj going to do more in the coming months, our surveys reveal exactly that. He is a man who wants to do ething all at once. Holding his cards pretty close to his chest. Fadeegative impact will after the summer. If they do something they did not give us a clue about it. Which is what you should do. That is a look at some of the macro themes ahead. Recap this story for you. Earlier it announced it would recall more than 6 million vehicles. In thiss involved particular recall. And a number of reasons behind them. We are not aware of accidents or injuries or fatalities that are caused by the issues they are recalling four. The company deciding to make this a fairly substantial recall. The stock was down by 3 . 3. 9 millioncalled prius hybrids in february. Covering more than half of the model sold. It is something they have had to face. Interesting that recalls have not slowed down earnings. It will be a record this year they say. Next. The move is stay with us. See you tomorrow. Welcome to on the move. I am Francine Lacqua at Bloomberg European headquarters in london. We are moments away from the start of european trading. Our markets team has everything covered. Here with me now is Caroline Hyde, Ryan Chilcote, and jonathan ferro. We get the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. A surprise in the last decision for a lot of people. Rates could be higher by the end of next year. Two days of losses on european equities. Futures indicating we might get a bit of a bounce this morning. Rex ryan, you are still focused on ukraine. The kremlin recommending Russian Companies that have shares listed on foreign exchanges the list them. We will delist them. We will be updating you on that. A little bit of news out today as well. We are looking at luxury goods. It will be interesting to see how russia feeds into that. A said sales were up because of the volatility in ukraine. How many goods are being bought in russia to begin with . If you are going to get your handbag, you are going to get it wherever you can. Lvmh, are they seeing similar trends . We are expecting sales to rise. This is what i am watching. Toyota shares