Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Charlie Rose 20140321

From our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. We begin tonight with the situation in crimea. Earlier today, prorussian act as a control activists took control of sevastopol. The security and defense chief announced that they are trying plans to with draw soldiers from crimea. Crimean leaders signed a treaty of moscow, integrating the peninsula into russia, that followed sundays referendum. The west and the Ukrainian Government says that the referendum, boycotted in many of crimeas nonrussian minorities, was illegal. Heres what Vladimir Putin said yesterday. Minds and hearts, crimea always has been and is now a part of russia. Generation,ion to people have this knowledge of crimea being a russian land. Andgeopolitical changes dramatic transformation to the former soviet union did not change that. Glad this is arguably the most areas and Dangerous International crisis of the post cold war era. Some are saying that we are in a hostcold war era. Why is russia doing this now . What is it likely to do next . What can the United States do . Joining me are two of the leading observers of russia, Thomas Graham who was the chief russia hands on a National Securities that from 20042000 and. 2007. He was later on the policy planning staff. Kimberly marten is a professor of lyrical science at Barnard College Political Science at Barnard College and a member of the faculty of columbia university. Why did this happen now . Eventss a confluence of in both russia, ukraine, and in the west. In russia, it didnt happen a few years ago because russia was in the midst of an economic crisis. They have gotten past that. Even though the economy is great slowly, they feel that the worst is behind them. It is the return of Vladimir Putin. He took the presidency in 2012. Part of his mission is that russia needed a national identity. Until recently, the president of ukraine what does it happened without him being forcibly out . Ousted . You are talking about the acute days of the crisis. Beenis a question that has on the agenda for a long time. It is critical to the way putin thinks about russia and its role in the world and it is crucial to thinking about how russia exerts a dull. That itself. Itself. What we have seen over the past three weeks is an improvisation. I want to come back to that. Lets go back to mr. Putin hospira marks yesterday. We played a small clip. What is he telling us . There were some themes that came out strongly. The first one was the incredible level of resentment and hatred of the west. It was quite clear. What was disturbing was that the whitney of humiliations was combined with a new move that had not been there before. There are two different ways that you can describe the word russian in the russian language. You can say russian citizen, or you can use a word that means ethnically russian. Up until this point, he always used the first word. Last night, for the first time, he used the word referring to ethnic russian. What should we draw from that . From this theme of humiliation and hatred for the west and trying to get back what they have lost, it means that putin has made a shift. He is no longer talking about restoring soviet glory, he is talking about restoring ethnic russian glory. That should be disturbing to anyone who is watched international events. The worstcase scenario is Something Like we had with slobodan milosevic. You mention that mr. Putin might be in providing. He does not have a grand land. This is a country known for playing chess. Is he doing that . In terms of how they should play out over the longterm, he is looking at how the west reacts and then he plans his next move. He may push beyond. Mr. S in moscow before yankelovich flat. Yanukovych fled. B was to create a frozen conflict in ukraine and use that as leverage over the Central Government in kiev. Those of us who do not know, why is ukraine, why is crimea so important . Is this strategic, psychological, economic . What is driving this . It is about the way that not only mr. Putin, but most of the russian elite, thinks about russia really the world. We can have arguments over the history of this. Part of ukraine have been in the russian empire for at least 300 years. 60 years ago khrushchev exactly. The way russians think about security it has always been the frontiers, as far away from the heartland as possible. This is strategic depth. Yes, in many ways. This is what allowed russia to do to revive the napoleonic invasion and the nazi attack. Her teacher depth was part of it. Psychologically, this becomes an important part of how they think about security. Course, the historical argument. Their role in the world. A gives putin too much credit to call him a chess master. He is a judo master. It is all about last man standing. Things driving putin is that are happening inside the kremlin. He is using nationalism in russia to get some work among the elite. Support among the elite. Of theing happen now has olympics. There was a big scandal about the corruption, 50 billion wasted. I think it is about this. William safire often used to write a column where he put himself inside someone elses head. I bet he would be writing a column from the perspective of putin. What would vladimirs column look like . Would he be feeling good right now . He is probably feeling very good. He will keep on pushing until he meets resistance. Everyone was shocked at what he has done so far. It seems like taking over crimea is a highrisk endeavor. Theres not a lot of russian economic value in crimea. Its water and electricity supplies come from ukraine. Things have to be shipped through ports. It has to come through turkey and turkey is unhappy about what has happened. Crimea is not a wealthy area. It is supported by assistance from the Ukrainian Government. Russia has to take that over. It is on top of money wasted and so she in sochi. Burdenaking on another as the russian economy is stagnating. Putinwhat extent was mr. Left the cure that he saw the ukrainian Prime Minister get driven out of the palace. Is some thing i want version of a moscow spring. I do not want a revolution. This is a strategic distraction in order to bolster his own position. To what degree do you buy into that . I think the narrative is different. What he has done in ukraine and crimea specifically fits a broader narrative about his goals. He rose to power 17 years ago. Remember what russia was like. We are talking about russia being a fetal state. The economy was in the tank. He came to power with a clear mission. That was to rebuild russias power. If you look at what he had accomplished, he took a failed state and rebuilt it. He consolidated a system of government. The economy is revived. Years, i spente money on rebuilding my military and giving russia the power needs to protect its influence abroad. I have gone back to the soviet era philosophies. You have to deal with russia. The. Of her and we are seeing is over. He has left it ambiguous. One of the quotes from his speech and this is what i read in translation, do not believe those who want you to fear russia. Other regions will follow crimea. We do not want to divide ukraine. Do you believe mr. Putin when he says he has had enough . You do not have to worry about me . He broke a promise today. The original promise was that Russian Forces would not force the Ukrainian Military out of crimea. We saw that happen with the Russian Navy Commander arrested. People were being forced out. He has broken one promise. Maybe he intends to have all of ukraine go back to mother russia will not that is one interpretation. I do not think we have any reason to trust what he says he is going to do. We are over a barrel. Theres not much that we can do in response. The economies are intertwined. Businesses have interest in russia. It limits the extent to which things will have an impact. Crimeaonly holiday . That policy . Is not crimea. Crimea is easy. There is a lot of foreign and domestic policy. Putin wants to create a eurasian union. That is supposed to include all of the soviet states. Ukraine is a big prize. It would increase the population of russia. The argument you can make is that all of you get out of this is crimea, you have lost strategically. If you have part of eastern ukraine, you have lost strategically. You need all of ukraine. The game is about how you get a government that is going to be not hostile. It will not move closer to that. It will keep ukraine in play to a point. Professor Kimberly Marten just said that ancients may not do much for us. What is your view . Do we have economic tools that could get president putin to temper his ambitions . No. We are not prepared to do a lot of harm. It has to be both. It has to be a consolidated issue. There is a lot of Economic Hardship you could create that might cause putin to rethink. We would have to be prepared to sacrifice on our side. They are intertwined. You cannot hurt them without hurting us. The problem is that when you look at this rob the standpoint from the standpoint of interest, it does not rise to the level it does in russia. They are prepared to withstand more pain than we are. We cannot do that damage to ourselves. Quite a few party expressed her skepticism on economic sanctions. What if the west increased its military collaboration with . What if they increase their energy at boards . Would mr. Wooten still see this as tipping the balance in his favor . He has provoked the west. What is amazing is that prd has a great deal of interest in ukraine. They are dependent on russia for gas imports. There is a Large Russian ethnic population in ukraine. Whatever Coalition Government would emerge would have to fax some russians. To sign aabout contract for Aircraft Development when this without. Went bad. Nato is going to focus on the eastwest divide in a way that it has not done since the end of the cold war. It has made it certain that europe is going to increase its capabilities to accept liquid natural gas and other forms of natural gas. Suddenly the russian economy is paying the price. Russia is even more isolated. Nato has a new lease on life. Confrontingin start and secondguessing . Run, could this come back and bite him . He will try to blame economic problems on the west. He has done that already. What is really going to make a difference is how the leaders of the russian business as that have been internationalized react to this. They are becoming pawns of the russian state. They do not want that. It will be interesting to see what the leadership in other big businesses that have interest in this become. Russia has to diversify to have its economy succeed. It will be interesting if they can push back. You are in one of your old jobs at the state department. The president said, i do not want to discourage you. I want to hear your best ideas. What can we do . What would you tell the president . There are two things. One is we have to recognize that it is ukraine. It is where they are economically. Russia had some influence, but the problem is that it is drifting westward. About natowas was still on the table. Things is positive that we are trying to take ukraine off the table. A lot of people have talked about neutrality. Can you formalize that . Period, it gives good and confident Vladimir Putin confidence. A were going to become a member of nato and that was to reassure this would have to be something that is enforced in the United States. Is that something the United States should be prepared to do . I think it is something they should be prepared to do. They should have a conversation with mr. Putin about it. What about the idea of arming the ukrainians . Side sayard the other that that is a bad option because it would be slow to have an effect. The problem we have is the ukrainians a. It way you would deal with is to build a functioning ukrainian state. They do not move into places where they are going to have resistance. That is how they have operated historically. Elting a functioning ukrainian state is no easy task. Look at ukraine over the past 20 years. It is probably more correct in russia. The economy has not grown. We had elections in 2004. Revolutions in 2004. The new people came to power and they were just as bad as the old people. They did not put their time and energy into rebuilding ukraine. That is the problem we have now. As much as you want to help ukraine, you have a government in kiev that is composed of old people. Elsewhere in the country is the old elites. Is the same people who brought the country and have not sacrificed anything. They need money. What if i bring ukraine into the eu . I think that is a wonderful idea. We have to separate the Economic Issues from the political issues. Mold obama wants to join. A also want to join. We must make it clear that becoming more involved in the European Union does not mean making a choice between europe and russia. It is a way to go forward. The eu made a mistake in terms of putting it as you go with the west or you go russia. Ukraine and moldova have to do do both. They have called for a reset. I say that its time for a rethink. Do we go back to containment . What is the nature of u. S. Russia relations . We still need some russian help in places like iran and area and north korea three out and north syria and north korea. What is the approach we should be thinking about . Putin has made clear that his greatest respect goes to those who demonstrate strength. It is important that cool operation cooperation is the mistreated. That is important. You have to walk a fine line between frankness and provocation. I would argue that there will not be another reset well putin is in office. It could be a long time. With the russian economy stagnating and russia taking on additional burdens, that makes it more possible that putin will not be able to last. What is the fine line . You said you do not want to have a security relationship extended. What is your sense of the message . Is to continue to build up forces in poland and the baltic states. To continue with the exercises we are already planning. It affects all members in europe. We have to stress the economic as whether question it is in ukraines interest. We have to make sure that that relationship regresses. What is your sense of where we should go with that bilateral relationship . Of it. Is the end of geopolitical power. I want to be treated as a power. They will be a big power. They have the tools to protect their interest. They have a lot of problems, but everybody has problems. You really have to build this relationship around interest as we need to have a deeper understanding of how russia create interest. Not simply because we are going to look for overlap, and see how we will manage this relationship we have to show strength. It is not only europe. We will find that we will bump up against russia in the middle east. There will be players of some sort in northeast asia. There will be players enough anesthetic. 100 years after the great war ended in europe, you can see a chain of events that could be a crisis. Absolutely. We need to see this in a broader context. There is a tendency in a lot of commentary here and in russia to talk about a cold war. The world is radically different. We need to think about russia, china, india, europe, and united eight. Andhank you Thomas Graham Kimberly Marten. It has been a lovely conversation. Jaron lane year is here. Jaron lane year lanier are is here. Wrote a book called who owns the future . I am pleased to have jaron lanier back at this table. It is up for grabs. If things keep going the way they are, it will be whoever is the closest to owning the biggest computers. That is what it is like now. 20 years ago, if you said, who are the most influential evil, is whoever has the digital networks. All of the influential people are closer to the big networks. It might be for finance or social networking. It might be for insurance. Are we talking about companies or individuals . The decision is blurry distinction is lori. Blurry. Ownership is becoming more and more narrow. Depending on how you count. Kids. Ve a few dozen good for them. I bear them no ill will. Into anurning society already nothing game. You get to be close to the big computer that is calculating advantages. It is a long tail. The thesis here is what . Is that we made a mistake. It is an honest mistake about how we manage our digital networks. I was certain that there was no ill intent. It was an honest mistake. It was made with tremendous purity of heart. That if we made information open and never be shared, if we created an informal economy, that would make the world efficient enough that it would benefit everybody in the end and would create a more egalitarian societyy. The mistake we made is that there are Certain Computers that therer calculating are few examples i can give. I like to make this concrete. Health insurance in the United States. As it happens, i was a consultant to what was the Largest Health Insurance Company in the u. S. I was present at the moment of the transition. And we were meeting discussing the data and networks and gathering information. He suddenly had this revelation. Our business just turned upside down. I wanted toif become more profitable and grow, i had to ensure more people. I was trying to get people that my competitors can get. Did not get. Now i can correlate people with data individually. Now i want to assure as few people as possible, just the people who need insurance the least. Then we had the beginning of this crisis that led to the obamacare controversy. This was on effect of the data. An effective big data. It was a strategic reversal. It seems too good to be true. It eventually turns around and fails. That same a fact has been visible in industry after industry and government. Get one of the biggest computers in the world to help you by gathering information and allowing you to calculate an advantage, it is so powerful. It ultimately turns out to be an illusion. Is this a political manifesto . Not yet. It is a premanifesto. Mistake. Want to make a mistakes, and i will speak for my colleagues, and that we were so certain we knew how to design digital that we hadfectly these ideas that we follow through and were not looking at incurable results, i am not certain that there is an idea of inherent good. I am proposing experiments. I want to be an engineer, not an ideologue. If we get enough results, then we can write it up. Glad you said Artificial Intelligence is a mashup of work done by real people who are anonymous and unpaid. Yes. That is how it seems to me. Theres a little bit of history that can explain that. Natural language translation. 1950s, itack to the a lot of people thought you could write a magic formula to translate between english and spanish. That would be a mathematical term. We searched for that. Many people search for decades. It turns out the only way to automate language translation, millions of translations, are from real people. We have to match up turns of phrase and context. Heres the tricky aspect of it. , you would hire a translator to do a memo. Now i hear from the Translators Association that they are losing work, but they are still needed. The whole socalled artificial translation scheme would fall apart without these people. They are still needed, but they are not working. Of fakes been a kind form of automation. What we bill is better than what we had before. We have to acknowledge that people are still needed. But let me talk about the three big areas of data that you identified. Of 2008. E crisis the other is the nsa and snowden. The third is the problem we have had with healthcare. Gov. These are all issues of big data. They all have similar qualities. Ok if i get technical . Please. Statistics work. They are real mathematics. The problem is that they do not fully describe our world. Our world is made of structures. I am sampling my finger. I can chart that is supposed to hit the table. All i am looking at a statistics, and it will go through the table. Our world is made of barriers and boundaries and conservation principles. It stops. If you can gather enough data of the world, you can plot what kind of ad will make somebody buy something. What picture will make them vote for the candidate that you want. It works. Between myance finger and the table, it always works for a little while. Theres a gap in which it seems to be perfect. And you had the real world something will break. Finance, itin happens with longterm capital management. It happened with enron. It is about to happen again. It is . When this perfect machine had some very are because of the real world and it cannot be represented by statistics. It is good for a while. All these things are the midas touch at first. Then they break. It happened with Health Insurance companies. We can become routable by not ensuring people. The problem is that in order to do that, you are affecting the world in a way that will make it great. The nsa had the same vision. If they could just calculate the whole world, we could have security. Calculatehat you can is not complete enough to give you that. You fall prey to institutional illusions. That there is a solution . Five micropayments are one way out. I currently think that they look like the best solution. Here is how works. Any time you contribute in your little way to a socalled automatic intelligent system, if you are a translator and your translations are written to the to gete, you would start a little bit of money on the basis of your contribution. What would happen is that most people would not make much money in most ways. It would be rare for somebody to make a living from one particular form of this. Most people would get something. I have evidence for this. Before i go into the details of how it works, i have to point out that the conception of digital networks, the origins, are precisely this. Back to 1960 when we saw the first proposal for they weretwork, proposing a universal micropayment system. This, then youo have more and more machines able to do things. Robotic nurses and automated factories. Many people are out of work and you have a social crisis. Then you are forced into some sort of redistribution scenario. I think that would not work. Some people like that idea. Fact are honest about the that people would still be needed to make Information Systems were, behind the veil of automation there are people, if we can figure out a way to send the money that they have earned, why not allow that to happen . People can make a living with dignity, even in a super advanced age. Who started it . Ted nelson in 1960. The technology that runs the internet. The very first origin idea. This is all very exciting. Know. My daughter will it will be a world where this is normal. A lot of folks these days are making the mistake of believing that personal wealth and riches mean anything. Way that your wealth can mean anything if you are part of a functioning society in a Civil Society where there are people to i your products. If we enrich ourselves and concentrate so much that the whole thing is falling apart, which is happening in my view, our own wealth is no longer real. What we have to do . Findinginterested in moments where we can experience of alternate models. Let me give you an example. Recently technology has become popular for hobbyists and it is starting to the mainstream. 3d printing. Thats right, right. They are simple these days. They are Getting Better and better. Someday you will be able to print out your new computer. Or youre gone. Your gun. The way this has been propagated is on the latex model. Linux model. I think there will be a world of other systems like this. There would be drugs synthesized for you on yours in. Along, these things come instead of doing it the way we instead of that model, we can try and model where everybody is paid. We bring people into the formal economy. As soon as we tried an experiment, we will start to see if it works. Think it will create a middle class system. It is a good idea. Thank you for having me on. The book is called who owns the future . Yancey strickler is here. Hes is the cofounder of kickstarter. They launched the company in april 2009. The idea was to create a tool available to anyone to bring creative ethics to life. Projects to life. They have funded more than 50,000 projects. Month, the company surpassed 1 billion in pledges. I am pleased to have Yancey Strickler at this table and stop for the benefit of latenight folks, what is kickstarter . Kickstarter is a website where people go and they may Creative Things. If you went to kickstarter right now, there will be documentaries , restaurants, video games, and performances. Anything you can imagine. Proposesn making it the project and the public has the opportunity to get involved. They get to see what happens. Value return is not some or a piece of the equity. Psychic income of knowing you have contributed to something. Thats right. There is no financial upside. It is not an investment. You make a documentary, and you get a copy when it is done. Some backers got to be extras in the Veronica Mars movie. Has the mandate changed . The Mission Statement . No, we are fortunate in that the original idea we had in 2001 have been consistent throughout. It is hard to do Creative Things and make art. The only ideas that seem to get money just make someone else money. A lot of the great ideas of the world are things that people are excited about. They have passion for it. As somebody who supports kickstarter projects, you make a contribution because you may imagine that other people would enjoy it. Participate, we will not get the fruits of this. We are creating the culture that we want to see, rather than accepting the one we have. Billion has been largely a 25 increments. People are not spending their life savings. You just passed 1 billion. That is remarkable. Size of thel pledges. 1 billion. Is that a milestone of significance . I guess so. It is a big number. I do not know what to think about it. A lot people care about bringing things to life. They care about Creative Things. This happens in the past five years under economic duress. People are being told that money should be used for utilitarian things. Arts budgets are being cut. The public is supporting the creation of idiosyncratic things. They are supporting their friends, their neighbors, their heroes. There is a lot of energy out there for creativity. You supported the documentary square. Documentary made by a woman who was oscarnominated. It is about the revolution in egypt. They were shooting in the square when citizen journalists were roaming around. That is something we were part of. Early on. They raised 100,000 through kickstarter last year. That was incredible. We are grateful for having that. The dollar amount for one project that is possible . The average project is about 5,000. They range from 100 to 2 million. Any idea what you might do with this kickstarter . Do you want to sell it or take it public . Do you want to grow it and see how big it can get . The latter. From the very beginning, we decided that we would never sell the company and we would never go public. We viewed kickstarter is a public trust. This is a place of opportunity for anyone. It is our job to be the stewards and honor it. Into agrowing this living, breathing, cultural and decision. Institution. We want to be a privately held, independentlycontrolled institution. Glad you just took over the ceo position from your cofounder . Kerry and i had been cofounders and partners for nine years. He was ready to move on and do art and other things. It was a seamless transition for us. We see the world in similar ways. In many ways, it is business as usual. There is a lot of things going on. This is what you have said about kickstarter. It is the kind of thing that seems as natural as air. The structure of the system and the fact that it exists at all. It is the product of years of thinking, collaborating, building. The original thought does not seem very original as it once was. It is like air. It is. Any great idea, once you see it, why wasnt it there but work . Andefore question mark could have thought of that. Theres a long history to this. Money to pope raised translate poetry. The medici patron system. They were all similar. This is been dormant for 100 years as we had giant corporations. The majority of products that get kick started our music or art. The most money has gone to film and games. The most albums made. There are 13 categories. There have been 500 restaurants created through kickstarter. The variety is off the charts. We have a publicly funded telescope. Money toe raising create a publiclycontrolled telescope. The limits to how it can be used are limitless. Projects satisfy you the most . Weird ones. E i like the strange ideas that do not seem like they will happen. There is a project called trash dance. It is a ballet. It is a ballet featuring sanitation workers and garbage trucks. Worker put together a great presentation. They have put together several performances. It is beautiful. That people are very creative. How do you see it growing . Years in. Are five april is our fifth birthday. He just continues to grow. It is over 1 million. We are growing by expanding to more countries. We are primarily in the englishspeaking world, but that will change this year. We are growing based on projects. Neely on one state project. He wanted to make an mp3 player. It is a high quality audiophile mp3 player. For neil young to use kickstarter, maybe he did not think about it before. I he has a lot of money. You would think. Kickstarter makes it a different kind of project. Young,someone like neil it is about validation. It is about putting it out to the public. What do you think . Do you want in . It is an invitation to participate. I have been a neil young fan all my life. The chance to interact with him in a different way is incredible. The fact that money is involved is secondary to the relationship. No young, marina grandma, these are some of the great artists ocih,young, marina abramav these are some great artists. We are up to 80 people. We just across the river into brooklyn. Is becoming a new ceo. I am serving those people. There are millions of people who are part of this. We want to bring these people into the fold. There are 50,000 people who gone through this. It is an amazing thing. Heres how you make a restaurant. Here is how you make a short home. There is a Great Community that we can build off of. But you are sharing knowledge as well as ambition. We are building a community of people who are really very active in trying to reshape the world. Take starter plays into our better angels. What can we do for each other kickstarter clays into our better angels. What can we do for each other . If someone wants to be a kickstarter, what do you do . You go to the site and click start and you go through the process of building a project. Think kickstarter can unlock your ideas. A lot of what happens is we think of ideas your idea is molded and shaped in a new way. Is always your vision. Our thinking is that it is your platform to do what you want. But you do not have to think about how much money you need. What is the Makers Movement . There is a real change happening in how we appreciate where things come from. What you see through kickstarter is a real revolution in manufacturing. If you think about it and you look at a kickstarter project, you see how this comes to be. You have a visit to the factory and the creator. You have a sense of the Global Supply chain. Product might get clocked off a tree by magic. In actuality, there are years of work. Bullet that is hidden behind the curtain. You can see giant companies emulating kickstarter. The process can be transparent. You can see how came to life. Even if the products have an author. The exposition of that and the sharing of that, it really raises the educational awareness level. People sense that you can do this too. We liked this as a cultural sea change. It has happened pretty quickly. Im eager to see where it goes. Who are your heroes . That is a good question. I would think of a few things. Harry smith from old ways fo lkways. He wanted to record all aspects of sound but not kanye west is a hero of mine. Hes fully himself. Hes a very selfpossessed artist who is not afraid to be vulnerable in front of millions of people. That is an admirable trait. I look to him as a hero very actively. Another person is a guy named ian mckaye. He is the senior of a punk band called fiugazi. there is a code that drives what he does. Great to have you here. Yancey strickler, kickstarter. This is taking stock for march, 20, 2014. Im pimm fox. This is an Apartment Building for the ultra rich. Residents include the chief executive of goldman sachs, Lloyd Blankfein im them as well as dan loeb. We will take a look at the one of the worlds most powerful addresses. Plus, a product designed for nest executives. Plus, the perfect suit design for you