Gradual slow motion integration. When way the chinese could retaliate is going after american openings. Erik ceos talk tech at the Consumer Electronics show. This is a year of dramatic change in industry structure. We have gone from Company Consolidation to industry consolidation. Erik that is all ahead on bloomberg best. Erik hello and welcome. I am erik schatzker. This is bloomberg best. Your weekly review of Business News and television from around the world. The week began quietly with most Global Markets closed for the new years holiday. The calm was disrupted on tuesday by a donald trump tweet. Donald trump criticized the automaker General Motors for building a version of the chevy cruz in mexico, saying make it in usa or pay a big border tax. Gm was not the only company under the cross hairs. Ford motors announced it will cancel plans to build a plant in mexico. Give us an idea of how global the manufacturing apparatus is for General Motors. The compact car trump was talking about was the cruise. They make most of the cars in ohio. The sedan is the car that consumers buy the most. Hatchbacks are made in mexico. Americans have never really embraced hatchbacks. That plant is really for export to other markets. This is still really symbolic. This is about donald trump pushing another automaker after already tussling with ford over investment in mexico. Start bringing jobs back i will , tariff if you dont. He is very good at governing by anecdote. This is one way he will try to govern. He will work very aggressively to say he is working for the american worker. The overall Global Forces are going to make this difficult for him to keep his promises on a global scale. Would you have made this same decision regardless of what the president elect had said . We would have made the same decision. Our main reason for canceling the plant is that our nextgeneration focus was going to be built in that plant. We have seen a market decline for small vehicles in north america. It is a ford decision. It is not something the president elect can go out and say he did it for america . We look at all kind of factors before we make these kind of decisions. Clearly, we see a more positive u. S. Manufacturing Business Environment under donald trump. We see the progrowth policies he is outlying outlining in the tax reforms. This is a vote of confidence that he can deliver on those things. Bechina is said to considering measures to continue supporting the u. N. Lets get over to beijing to our chinese correspondent. They are considering now contingency plans to support the yuan and easy capital outflows. Including asking enterprises to convert some of their Foreign Exchange into yuan for the capital account. They may also trim some of their u. S. Treasury holdings to support the yuan and maintain a Stable Exchange rate. It points to the pressures officials are under, to pull back on some of these capital outflows. How unusual is this move by china . The fact that they are , wearing a contingency plan have had the devaluation of the in 2016, market up more january, what is interesting is there looking to react to overseas movement in the dollar. It is slightly ominous in my point of view. This time, it is more of a dollar story. If donald trump makes good on his threats to do whatever he has said he is going to do, such as impose tariffs on chinese exports, that could spell a lot of trouble. I think people are very concerned about what will happen after he takes over. The minutes have been released after their meeting. Upside risks are being considered. Fed officials are concerned they might have to quicken the pace of rate hikes to fend off inflation. It was a lengthy discussion from the minutes about what might happen under the fiscal policies of donald trump. There is a lot of insurgency which is expected. What catches my eye is their discussion of labor markets and the fact that a number of people think they could undershoot the fed target of full employment. There is a line in here that says, if that were to happen, many participants emphasized that timely adjustments to Monetary Policy might be required to achieve and maintain the committees maximum employment objectives. In other words, they are forecasting three rate increases spread out over the year, but if the economy continues to run hot and labor markets get stronger we might move sooner and faster than markets anticipate. The chinese offshore yuan posted its biggest gain in twpday gain on record overnight lending rates , soared. Why is the yuan up so dramatically against the u. S. Dollar . It is almost killing season in china today. They are looking at those shorts in a big way. It is less clear if they are intervening, today, but we do know they have engineered a classic liquidity shortage. The are trying to stop the yuan from flowing from the mainland into hong kong. The chinese authorities are really sending a signal that depreciation is not a oneway bet. Place your money where you will. We are coming after you. Five seconds away from the payroll report. The number comes now. 156,000, so below the 175,000 estimate that john mentioned. The unemployment rate, as expected, picking up. Hourly earnings coming in a little hotter than expected at 0. 4 . The yearoveryear gain, 2. 9 , matching the highest rate since june of 2009. A little bit higher wage growth as jobs gains were lower than estimated. The Participation Rate is steady at 62. 7 . All of this means total job growth was 2. 2 million. Improving, in is contrast to what was just said ist the underemployment rate relatively high and needs to come down by 1 or 2 . They were talking about the labor force that wants to work. As opposed to the number. It is a decent number, and it suggests the gdp is moving along as much as to percent or 2. 5 . As much as 2 or 2. 5 . I think, in order to get a hasthy economy, trump suggested, you need 3 real growth and 5 nominal growth. We are about a point under for both of those. Erik still ahead as we review the week on bloomberg best, insight from a Voting Member of the fomc. Plus, extra opinion on significant risks facing Global Markets in the financial economy in 2017. Up next, more of the top business stories. A renowned banking executive takes up a new challenge. Youll be looking at expansion into asia and other parts of the world. Erik this is bloomberg. Erik this is bloomberg best. I am erik schatzker. Our with a up our tpo look at the donald trump transition starting with the nomination of a new leader to the securities and exchange commission. Jay clayton picked to head the sec. In a statement, trump said he is an expert on many aspects of regulatory law and will ensure our Financial Institutions can thrive and create jobs while playing by the rules. It sounds like he picked the ultimate wall street insider as his next sec chief. There is no doubt that he certainly has been wall street bona fide over the years. He has represented the biggest names in private equity funds and hedge funds. Has done some ipo work for some of the biggest deals ever. You are really talking about someone who has spent well over a decade representing some of the firms that ultimately are under the Regulatory Oversight of the sec. The battle over the fate for the fate of the Affordable Care act is underway. The opening salvo is taking place on capitol hill. Mike pence earlier promised in an orderly transition away from the health care law. He criticized obamacare. The American People have sent new leadership here because obamacare has failed. I think pence brought a little bit of news today in the realm that he said president elect trump plans to use executive actions as part of the repeal and replace process. There is a lot he can do by executive action to weaken Obamacare Services such as benefits that insurers have to include in their plans. I believe, and i believe the American People also will believe, health care will be less expensive when obamacare is gone. We want to get rid of this law and then put in place a model and concept that is principled and doctorcentered. We dont want to lose the benefits of the Affordable Care act. We have seen the slowest growth rate of premium for americans in recent times. We do not want to lose that. We want to try to protect the Insurance Coverage that americans have today. The affordability and quality of their Insurance Coverage. Toyota shares have fallen the most in over a month after criticism from donald trump to open a plant in mexico. They will build a new plant in baja, mexico to build cars for the u. S. Donald trump said, no way. We do not know how much that tax he is threatening will be. Take a look at the share price. You can see what the power of a tweet actually is. You can see that leg down in the middle of the day, it cost toyota around 1. 25 billion. Toyota did come out with a defense saying that production or volume in the u. S. Would not decrease as a result of their new plant in mexico. For now, it seems targeted is going to move ahead with their mexico plant to make their cars. Also in that statement, toyota trying to burnish their credibility with the u. S. And really with donald trump by saying, look, we have done so much for the United States 22 billion of direct investment, 10 manufacturing facilities and employing 36,000 people. Moving beyond washington, d. C. , the drama about currency controls was not the only significant story out of china this week. We continue with encouraging data from the worlds secondlargest economy. Just a few moments ago, the gauge coming in at more than an expected reading. It is the highest reading in almost three years. We can look at the unofficial because it is the highest on record since july 2015. I think there is better sentiment and mood among corporate china. You can see the escape from deflation after four years, and it is starting to feel true now. Flow through, now. With that data, we are seeing the chinese economy in a sweet spot. Maybe they feel they can take their foot off the pedal of off the stimulus pedal. They are probably in a better spot them were they expected to be a year ago. Spot better spot than where they expected to be, a year ago. He was the rainmaker that helped to build Deutsche Bank into a wall street giant. He is now planning his second act to plan a smaller competitor. To be know what he is going to be doing. He is going to be the president. Held in thetle he he will be leading expansion 1990s. Into asia and different parts of the world. He will also be doing a lot of what he did at Deutsche Bank creating new products for clients, finding new clients, and helping to push people into more complex products than they had before. He can bring in a lot of growth because they have a lot of leg room in debt and equity sales, to grow in Investment Banking in debt and equity sales, and also in trading. Writtens Prime Minister need britains Prime Minister need to be told the uncomfortable truth about the difficulties negotiating brexit. Are we lurching with moments like this . Does this make us think we are potentially moving towards a harder form of brexit . I think it underlines how difficult the Brexit Process is going to be, and how long and drawn out it will be. I do not think that is news at all. I believe the gentleman was due to leave in november, anyway. Perhaps he has decided he does not need this kind of stress at the end of a long career. Clearly, it is going to be a difficult process. I think it is not also news to anyone that there are some differences of opinion in the government. Prime minister theresa may is wasting no time in filling the vacuum left by ivan rogers surprise resignation. She reacted fast. I guess it is a question of strength and weakness. Which one is it . She did not want a vacuum to open up. That letter from ivan rogers laying bare some feelings in the , Civil Service about the lack of preparation or the like of a strong negotiating team. So, she brings in a former ambassador to moscow. Someone with experience working in europe, barely 24 hours after rogers resigned. As a senior Government Official tells bloombergs tim ross, it seems to suggest she acted very quickly and was perhaps stung by some of his criticism. Some of this criticism which is a fairly unprecedented look into the inside of government. Let us talk about Deutsche Bank. It is said to be eyeing up private equity firms to help deal with it 7. 2 billion settlement in the u. S. According to someone with knowledge in the matter, one of those possibilities is lending to firms that specialize in bag mortgages in bad mortgages. Essentially, they are saying they can look at private equity and get that relief. Right, so Deutsche Bank saying you want consumer relief, and these private equity firms can do this on a regular basis. We should be them, getting credit on the consumer relief total. What is the pitfall . The doj came back and said you cannot do this. It is part of the negotiations. It falls into the bucket of it cannot hurt to ask. The downside is the doj said the point of the settlements is to provide additional consumer relief. This is something going on anyway. It is not additional. You cant count it. Christmas is not really giving to some retailers this year. Macys reported disappointing holiday sales. They also said they would cut around 6200 jobs from its payroll. Macys it is not really a surprise, is it . They were hoping for better results. They had put a lot of work into the business. They announced they were going to close stores. Yesterday, we got a look at some got a look at which stores those will be. It is more than 60 of them. Lets talk about sears. There is news coming out that they are going to close another 150 stores that are not doing well for them. I think with them it is a liquidity management game. You have to create keep closing scores in figure out what the right size of retailer is. 800 storeset down to at some point, but for them, it is about getting to figure out what the right size for the business is. Erik welcome back to bloomberg best. I am erik schatzker. The effectiveness of Central Banks was a constant topic of debate in 2016. Many complaining that historically low Interest Rates were distorting the prices of financial assets. Now it is a new year, so will we see a new direction in Monetary Policy . In an exclusive interview, we tom keene explored that question with the former head of the reserve bank of india. When do we exit our great bond market distortion . I think we are in the process of exiting. I think the Federal Reserve is seeing limited room for continued accommodation, and they are starting to raise Interest Rates. I think you will see the pressure on other Central Banks come off as much as it has over the past few years to continue accommodation. My guess is that we are in the process of exiting. How fast it will be depends on, to some extent, on conditions in the United States. What kind of policies the new administration brings. How comfortable they feel with those new policies and whether they need to move faster or slower depending on those administration proposals. It seems to me that as one pressure comes off, another comes on. We have heard the rhetoric about politics and the Federal Reserve during the campaign. We are certainly seeing what is happening on catapult capitol hill with a new round of , congressman being sworn in. Many of them want to change the relationship between congress and the Federal Reserve. How did they deal with that globalization politicization . I think it is an important issue around the world. The central bank has only been around for the last few years. They have acquired a sense of political power that certainly creates apprehension among the political establishment. Of course, they would like to control that power. Unfortunately, it is coming at a point when increasingly, Central Bank Independence will become important, perhaps as inflation prices rise. They will be asked to control inflation, for which we spent many years getting an apparatus that ensures independence and ensures they can raise rates at the time it is needed without feeling constrained by political pressure. These pressures come at a time when it is really a very delicate situation for Central Banks. The backdrop to this is the possibility we could see policy changes, tax reform a big , Infrastructure Spending package. It seems a kind of damned if you and damned if you dont. Potentially be blamed for doing the wrong thing whichever way they go. Given the political situation, this is a time they have to tread very carefully. I have no doubt that given the tradition they have established, the fed will do what they think is right rather than cater to political opinion. Erik straight ahead on bloomberg best, we zero in on the fed. Mike mckee sat down for an exclusive interview with dallas fed president robert kaplan. Also coming up, conversations with some leading lights of the tech industry. First, what you need to know about risk in 2017. Experts tell bloomberg it could be coming from places you dont usually expect. America is driving Global Political risk and uncertainty. This is bloomberg. Erik you are watching bloomberg best. I am erik schatzker. 2017 could be the most volatile year for Political Risk since world war ii. That is according to the Eurasia Group and their report that was released this week. We discussed some of the details with some very respected analysts. Starting with larry summer. What is your chief concern or observation as we are 17 days away from the inauguration of President Trump . I think it is a moment of extraordinary uncertainty. There are prospects that things could work out well for some. However, there are enormous risks to the global economy. Enormous risks from a possible United States protectionist measures. Risks to the world experimentation where certain pillars of american foreignpolicy are up for grabs. Enormous risk to the American Economy from an administration that will take a very different approach to American Society than has been traditional. This is probably the largest transition ideologically and in terms of substantive policy that we have seen in the United States of the last three quarters of a century. There is no question that donald trump comes into this office with a feeling that most important bilateral relationship in the world between the United States and china is not being fundamentally wellmanaged. He feels that the United States needs a hard response. It is happening at a time when jinping will not take any uncertainty. From 1998, we started off from. When we talk about global, Political Risk it was emerging markets and the middle east, and that the financial crisis hit. You had the eurozone. In 2017 leading the docket is the United States. America is driving political global risk and uncertainty. That is not reflected in the markets right now, but it is a fundamental seachange from anything we have seen over the past few decades. It is this transition that matters so much to the rest of the world. I am curious about the new representative we have. I wonder if the u. K. Is going to be at the top of the list. Do you have to do a brexit to get on with the Trump Administration . There is an idea that the United States will have a trade deal with the u. K. , and i think that is very farfetched. I think it is going to take much more than two years to reach an agreement with the eeo with the e. U. It is going to damage Economic Growth to the united kingdom. It is at a time when europe is in the process of gradual, slow motion disintegration. Who comes to power in france, what Political Party gains power in italy. What we need to know about the domestic policies of beijing if they address the president of the United States . The key risk we see for china is being a the edge in 2017 because of the leadership transition. The potential for china to overreact. Because xi jinping is so focused on the big Incoming Congress they are going to be on edge to any kind of external activity or action whether it is u. S. China relations or north korea. That could either pose a or itction to xi jinping could cause some kind of activity that he would have to respond forcefully to in order to not lose credibility at home. Do they take out u. S. Companies . Is it a supply chain problem . Or is it even worse . It really depends on what the provocation is. I think the u. S. China relationship if donald trump and the Trump Administration decides to take a series of very heavy, aggressive trade actions against the chinese, then one channel they could retaliate is by going after American Companies. And, there are all sorts of informal ways that they could sort of harass American Companies as a way to retaliate. Erik risk is a word that came up several times in the minutes of the Federal Reserve policy meeting as they debated the 2017 rate. On friday, we had a chance to probe deeper into the fed thinking with robert kaplan. Dallas fed president. You read the minutes of the fomc meeting, and you cannot help but walk away with the belief that Federal Reserve officials have very little confidence in the donald trump forecast in 2017. There may not be a lot of confidence in what Monetary Policy is going to have to do. Is that fair . No, i would not say that at all. The second half of 2016 was very strong. Our own forecast at the dallas fed is that the first half of 2017 will also be strong. Gdp in excess of 2. 5 . I think the reforms provide upside to that forecast. I would not say that people like me, members do not have confidence. F oh, it is just that we are acknowledging that, with additional economic policies, it will provide upside to our forecast. We might need to be nimble to revise our forecast as events unfold. That is the way i would put it. With the economy need additional fiscal stimulus . I will say this, there have been two, major headwinds we have been talking about. One of those is slow Labor Force Growth due to aging and demographics. By the way, it will continue for the next 10 years. Is weaknd trend productivity growth. Ive been a believer that Monetary Policy alone will not deal effectively with those issues at this point. We need some kind of reform. Maybe regulatory review, potentially some Infrastructure Spending that could improve productivity. Policies that could improve those two issues. Our belief is that the policies would be most effective if they address those two points. What you think of the report after today . The december unemployment report. I think it is consistent with the message that we are moving towards full employment. It is consistent with moderate growth. It is consistent with removing some additional slack from the labor market. And so i would say it is consistent with our forecast. For me, it is consistent that we will have relatively solid gdp growth in the first half of next year in excess of 2 . What about the wage numbers . 2. 9 yearoveryear, the strongest sense that is noticeable. It is worth noting that, as the labor force is tightening, it is tightening more for skilled workers than unskilled workers. It is consistent with reduced labor slack and moving towards full employment and a tighter labor market. Erik this is bloomberg best. I am erik schatzker. The annual Consumer Electronics show in las vegas is a showcase for new products and innovative platforms. It also brings together the Tech Industries most influential executives. We spoke with a number of ceos and these are some of the highlights. Last year, it was all about connectivity. We are really doubling down as an industry. This year, we are showing technology and four pillars of conductivity. That is about collaboration of many different technologies from apple, samsung, ibm, google. More and more automation that you bring in is getting complicated for average users like you or i. We want to customize the human side of machines. The u. S. Political scene has been talking about the hacking, so set of security is important. You cannot have Home Security without cyber security. It is very important. These are some of the biggest trends we are showing here with the home and the car. You are talking about driving us in a self automated car. It already talks to you and opens the garage for you. When is it a reality and not a concept . It is more than a concept now. I think the technology is ready. As far as the infrastructure, we are not ready to deploy. Cars today are being driven by humans, and they are not intelligent. So the next few years will be exciting in terms of implementation. Is it theoretically possible that these series of hacks have any affect on the brand of yahoo in any way . That it damages the brand . From what our goals are, yahoo remains on track. The breach is a bit of research, and the investigation is ongoing. When you look at that asset, what do you see that holds such value . The breach continues to dominate the discussion. What do you see in its underlying value . Well, you know, yahoo has one of the largest footprints on the consumer side. It has a large advertising and ecommerce business in asia. We look at this asset, the combined assets would have over a billion consumers, you know, doing billions and billions of dollars in ad revenue. It has a very big footprint in mobile. You add into it verizon with the opportunity for data and targeting and getting to mobile consumers. It is huge. I think the breach information and investigation is there, but from a Business Strategy standpoint, especially when you look toward the next 510 years, the asset coming together represent a very unique opportunity and scale. You know, look, we have gone from Company Consolidation to industry consolidations. Verizon has been very clear on their execution and thinking on where they believe the world is going with media and wireless and mobile. We are excited about verizon and and weexcited by yahoo are excited about the team overall. There is one issue that needs to be resolved over all, but on the integration side as far as the strategy the strategy remains intact. My colleagues had a dispute this morning about mrs. Trumps on had a dispute this morning on mr. Trumps thoughts on the at t and time warner deal. He is seemingly not a fan of it. What are your thoughts . Who cares what he thinks . Unless he is going to micromanage it and go through the whole legal process, he is just doing what he does. He is making noise. On a subject he really does not know anything about. It has taken a chunk out of the Company Shares today. I have heard this a lot recently if he says something, your stock goes down. Yes, fine. If your stock is subject for more than a day or two to his comments being a negative drag on you, then you have a very lousy business. And, it is all, you know, it is alltoday is it is todays ridiculous silliness. The merger efforts last year do you see any likelihood of the merger being resurrected . No. It could have never happened anyway. Oh really . Why do you say that . Are on ae if you committee representing the shareholders, then you are not going to buy five, for anything other than a bargain sale price. If you are on the other side of the committee, then you are only going to sell it at a premium. It was never going to happen anyways. So, i do not know why anybody made noise. How would you try to turn around paramount . You make good movies. It turns. President elect donald trump has taken aim at companies particularly those that manufacture in mexico. He has been threatening tariffs on companies that import products from mexico. Does that change at all your view on how you operate in that country . I know you produce in mexico. We produce in mexico, but we also produce a lot in the United States. Just want to remind you, we have the largest manufacturing plant in the United States. Cars, the most and all of the americas. It is the largest plant in all america for the car industry. We are happy in the u. S. What i want to tell you is that there is a new administration coming. There are going to be some new policies and limited. Obviously, we are business people, and we will adapt to the new policies. What does that mean . With additional the past be coming to north america, we will take into consideration the policies coming into place. America, new mexico, canada. So far, the policies have been nafta. This was an agreement signed between the three markets, and this we adapted to the policy. If this changes, then we will adapt to this condition. What is important is that, as a rule, we implemented for everybody. As it stands now, he has clearly targeted mexico. So you are saying if you are going to add capacity it is going to be in the u. S. Or canada . I do not want to preempt on what will be decided when the new administration will be in position. But i can tell you, we will not make any moves before understanding exactly what is going to be the new policy of the american administration. This is the second largest car market in the world. When the president of the united obviously states says something, everybody listens. Clearly, this is a year in dramatic change in industry structure. I strongly believe that dishs capability will persist, but something is going to happen with them. I also predict that cable players will fail miserably and cope with that. I stand by my predictions. Including also that google is going to get into the wireless world. I want to mention one that people keep predicting that you have to keep swatting away. It is a merger between tmobile and sprint. You seemed to hint earlier that you think this might go through. That this might actually happen. I do not want to put words in your mouth. Particularly, with the new president in the white house. Yeah, and again, in order for something to go through, it has to exist. I would never comment on the existence of something that we are currently at auction about. When i have been clear about all along is that the structure, especially around the mobile internet, is going to bring together multiple players either vertically or horizontally. And yes of course, the scale provided by sprint and tmobile being together is something that has long been considered. I believe, under a Trump Administration, there will be a different level of regulatory scrutiny and possibly industry structure. Consolidation tolerance. And so i think it is going to be a fascinating year. A great year to be a healthy, vibrant, growing brand. We go into the bloomberg, and we are using a great function. This is bloomberg mass that was released last year. This is a map of north america plant production. We see ford in blue and gm in yellow. And it is right in the United States. Erik there are about 30,000 options on the bloomberg could we always like to show you our favorites on bloomberg television. Here is another one you will find useful. Quic. It can take you to our quick takes for insights into timely topics. Here is one that examines the civil war in syria. Half a decade of uninterrupted violence. 450,000 deaths. At least 11 Million People displaced from their homes. That is like the entire state of ohio. Even as the Syrian Government recaptures aleppo, there is no end in sight. Here is the situation since 1966, the minority offshoot of shiite islam has been in power. That theyte the fact only represent 12 of the population. The sunni Muslim Population represent around 60 . The current president , Bashar Alassad took over in 2000 after the death of his father. Cut to 2011 and arab spring. The world watched the rising as tunisia toppled its dictator. Instead of stepping down, assad violently crushed the peaceful uprising using tanks, artillery, and gunships. Many protesters responded by arming themselves. That is when the conflict took on a sectarian nature. They looked to the saudis who put their backing behind aleppo. Shiites gave their support to the regime. Meanwhile, the jihadists of the Islamic State use their power attacked both sides. Then, there are superpowers like the United States and russia who are frequently at odds over the war. The United States is against assad while russia supports it. Both countries are actively fighting inside syria against the Islamic State and al qaeda spin off. This in the name of combating terrorism. But russia uses the terror attacks to bomb groups supporting assad including rebels supported by the United States and its allies. Devastated by the fighting, syrians were able to escape the bloodshed by fleeing by the millions into neighboring countries. Straining resources into a global humanitarian refugee crisis. For years, the United States has helped them stay independent. Insisted that assad must go. In the interest of the broader fight against the Islamic State. Donald trumps presidency means that stance might soften further. He suggested partnering with russia to combat the Islamic State. Erik that was just one of many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. You can also find them on bloomberg. Com along with the latest Business News and analysis for the four hours a 24 hours a day. That will be at for bloomberg best this week. Thank you for watching. I am erik schatzker. This is bloomberg. Announcer from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Charlie we begin this evening with a series of conversations examining the legacy of president obama. In two weeks, he will leave the white house following eight historic years in office. Among his signature accomplishments are comprehensive Health Care Reform and overhauling Financial Regulation in response to the worst economic crisis since the great depression. Donald trumps election has raised questions about whether these and many other achievements of the Obama Presidency will endure. Joining me from boston is doris kearns goodwin