And World Business report. Terms of disengagement. The eu will set out its stall on brexit later but britain says trade talks must get under way at the same time. Plus cash cows and Spread Betting. Why the price of butter is soaring on us markets. Welcome to World Business report. If you are in britain it is nice and early, stay where you are and give me eight minutes, nine minutes they just told me, and i will give you an exciting snapshot of the exciting world of business and money. We start in malta, where later this morning Eu Council President donald tusk will present europes guidelines for the brexit negotiations. The key question for britain can it negotiate a Future Trade Deal with the eu at the same time . Or, as france is insisting, must it wait until exit talks are done . Two years is already seen as tight to do such a complex trade deal. So what happens if one cant be done in time . For a start, these tariffs are Customs Taxes slapped on imported goods. They range from around 1. 5 on things like toys and watches, up to 45 on meat. If the uk leaves the eu Single Market without a deal, it would be subject to those tariffs under World Trade Organization rules. According to the think tank, civitas, that would see british exports to the eu hit by Tariffs Worth 6. 5 billion. That would make them more expensive and less attractive. Theyll buy less. Of course, it cuts both ways. Civitas says europes tariff bill would be well over double that, 16 billion, a lot of it landing on germany and its carmakers. A huge incentive then on both sides to do a deal as fast as possible. Then theres the potential chaos caused by all those extra Customs Checks at ports and airports, especially in the south of england. For britain, theres another specific worry. It also needs to secure access to the eu for its huge financial industry. If it fails, 70,000 jobs in the City Of London could be at risk. So what about the long term . Within five to ten years, britains total trade could slump by 30 if theres no trade deal with the eu. Thats according to a recent study by the National Institute for economic and social research. It argues deals with the likes of the us and australia just wouldnt make up for the loss of the eu Single Market. I am not sure about that. David Campbell Bannerman is a conservative member of the European Parliament representing the east of england. He is a former Deputy Leader of the uk independence party, which of course campaigned for brexit, and he co chairs the eurosceptic Pressure Group conservatives for britain. Great to have you with me this morning on this programme, david. Let me start with this, no matter what side of defence people sit on, i think we all agree a deal has to be done. Is it realistic, two years, to get a deal . I think we can. I work on trade deals all the time on the trade committee. We have just done canada. That has taken seven yea rs, done canada. That has taken seven years, three years of negotiations. We dont have any tariffs to negotiate, not 1600 paris as canada did, we dont have any quotas and all other laws are a equivalent, so we start in a very different position from any Trade Deal Under Wto Rules than the us i600 tariffs. Picking up on that, talking about deals around the world, the nationalistic or economic and social research, you know, the point About Britain not making up for the loss of trade with the eu with the likes of trade with the eu with the likes of the us and australia. Go on. They are eu funded, that body, they area they are eu funded, that body, they are a disgrace in the referendum, carrying on project fear. It is nonsense. We are the largest single customer of the rest of the eu. Lets not forget that. They want access to the fifth largest continent in the world, that is asked, the uk, they want access to the City Of London. Lets do a good deal like canada, super canada what i argue for, and the eu has done trade deals in most countries in the world. And the ones it has done deals with it is doing so now. Yes, no, absolutely, iam deals with it is doing so now. Yes, no, absolutely, i am an aussie, so lets do big deals with australia and new zealand, go back to that relationship. Direct me if i am wrong, you are in norwich, big farming community. Is their concern about the whole Immigration Faq . Farming needs workers and typically a lot are migrant workers. Yes, i think we should go back to the temporary workers scheme, agriculture workers scheme, started in1947, agriculture workers scheme, started in 1947, way before the eu was created. So we have been there before. We need Agricultural Workers in the east of england, yes. That will continue. Under a new visa regime. I think the point is, even if we have the worst case scenario, which is wto rules, you touched on that, well, six out of ten of the largest Trading Partners of the eu use those rules, including the us, japan, china. We import 300 willian dollars worth of chinese goods 300 billion worth of chinese goods without a formal trade agreement. Cani without a formal trade agreement. Can i ask briefly before we wrap up, iam can i ask briefly before we wrap up, i am curious on your point, i was travelling the last three weeks, this is my week back, people asking about brexit, and i am like, yes, a big issue, buti about brexit, and i am like, yes, a big issue, but i am like, you know what, watch what happens in the rest of europe, keep your eye on that, not necessarily just tax of europe, keep your eye on that, not necessarilyjust tax it. France is only, what, three weeks away from an election . I mean, that could overta ke an election . I mean, that could overtake brexit, couldnt it . Well, thatis overtake brexit, couldnt it . Well, that is true, i mean, Marine Le Pen is in that is true, i mean, Marine Le Pen isina that is true, i mean, Marine Le Pen is in a strong position. She is likely to get to the second round. Well have to see what happens, whether she is beaten in the second round stage, which is probably likely. As we saw with President Trump and with brexit, surprises can happen. Brexits case, thank goodness they did it. We appreciate your time. Thank you very much. To asia now, where theres more evidence chinas economy is bouncing back. Nice healthy bounce back. Activity in the countrys factories has increased at its fastest pace in almost five years. Theres also been string growth in services and construction. Rico hizon has been looking at the numbers for us in singapore. Hey, rico, i have missed you welcome back from your holiday. Well, i was visiting family. It wasnt really a holiday, rico. Hey, listen, my friend. China, beijing and the administration, the powers to be, have for the last several yea rs to be, have for the last several years tried to shift the economy away from making staff to being more services driven. At the moment the factories are making a lot of stuff. That is right. It looks like it is coming from both manufacturing and from services. That is why things may be looking up, aaron, for the chinese economy. This is another fresh sign that it is picking up stea m, fresh sign that it is picking up steam, factory activity picking up yet again last month to its highest level in nearly 60 months, aaron, with the official Pmi Index Climbing 51. 8 from with the official Pmi Index Climbing 51. 8from 51. 6 with the official Pmi Index Climbing 51. 8 from 51. 6 a number of bad 50 is an indicator of expansion and it is an indicator of expansion and it is the strongest level since april 2012 with a Report Revealing Production Orders expanded in the key manufacturing industry. As for the official nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index, aaron, it rebounded as well, indicating strength in the Services Sector. Growth in the Services Industry is accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly three years and the Services Sector accounts for over half of the mainland economy and for the majority of its 6. 7 growth in 2016. So, things are looking positive for the chinese economy, hopefully. Indeed, a healthy chinese economy is a healthy global economy. 0k, rico, love you, in the nonbiblical sense, of course. We will see you soon, have a great weekend. Also on todays business dairy. Stay with me, i didnt make a mistake. We are in the us where theres a new meaning to the phrase cash cows. The price of butter is at an all time high butter futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange havejumped14 over the past five months. So whats behind all this Spread Betting . Samira hussain reports. Jonathan white and his dog lorraine by his side is off to meet his co workers. That is stellar right there. Oh, and that is lousi. The cows here are all 100 grass fed. The dairy is used primarily to make cheese but also butter. Since i got into the Butter Business in 1983, but has had a huge i wouldnt even call it a comeuppance, it is a calm backance and it is gratifying to see. The demand is set to skyrocket this year as more people want to eat clea n, this year as more people want to eat clean, less processed food and it means the price of butter will go up, which is great news for Dairy Farmers like this one, but it is not a winfor farmers like this one, but it is not a win for everyone. So there is as much butter as this. This pastry seth is making his version of a lemon tart chef. Seth is making his version of a lemon tart chef. Creamy and smooth like shaving foam. This shop online users at 635 kilograms of butter per week alone. Online users at 635 kilograms of butter per week alone. The bakery will use a lot more butter than any restau ra nt. Will use a lot more butter than any restaurant. A bakery will use so much butterfor all the bread, all of the dough, all of the croissants and we can sell large volumes, so it is something to look at. Making these rich pastries is getting costly. The price of butter is 10 higher than one year ago. That is because americas new taste for butter has caught the Dairy Industry by surprise. And these hard workers have yet to catch up with the demand. But maybe a pricey commodity these days but the results are just delicious butter. Butter on everything. It is good for you. Follow me on twitter, i will be back with alpa to look at the papers from around the world. Bye bye. The head of nhs england says waiting times will be longer for routine operations as a trade off for improvements in a e performance and better treatment in other areas. Simons stevens is to unveil a new strategy for the nhs later. Alexandra mackenzie reports. How have you been feeling . Not too bad. This woman is 96 and is recovering from a recent illness. You are doing really well. Her gp called a local nhs Service Based in nottinghamshire to give her the right care and the right place and for iris that was home. The treatment at home has been absolutely wonderful. A e is well cared for, a priority for the nhs, but it is acknowledge the system is under pressure and tough financial choices are needed. Today nhs england leaders are taking stock of progress. Since their five year plan was published in 2014. Aims cited in the strategy include improving cancer survival rates, increased access to Mental Health therapies and recruitment of more gps. But with limited resources it is likely to mean longer waiting times for Nonurgent Operations and fewer people being referred to hospital in the first place. The problem is made worse by a shortage of beds. There isa worse by a shortage of beds. There is a significant proportion of people who dont need to be there, who dont want to be there. And if we could get them out, that would free up Something Like 2000 to 3000 beds in the nhs, which could be used more effectively for providing quicker elective surgery. Today is about setting out what is possible with the money allocated by the government to the nhs in england but ata time government to the nhs in england but at a time of increased to manned it, what is not addressed is the extra funding that is needed demand. Coming up at 6am on breakfast sally nugent and jon kay will be here. Im alpa patel. The top stories this hour a lawyer for one of President Trumps former aides, michael flynn, says he has offered to give testimony about alleged russian meddling in last years us president ial election in exchange for protection from prosecution. South koreas ousted president , park geun hye, has been arrested on corruption charges. Theyre the same charges that led to her political downfall, when the countrys Constitutional Court backed a decision to impeach her. More us led troops have arrived in poland in as part of natos response to concerns over russia. They are part of the alliances four battalions, aimed at giving reassurances to states unsettled by russias actions in ukraine. A Californian Company has made history by launching a used rocket back into space. Spacex has developed a way of landing its boosters, which are the most expensive part of a rocket, safely on earth after a mission