and southwards, relative to the earth, so does the itcz. as it moves northwards, it brings the so—called long rains from march to may. this year, those long rains failed. as it moves back southwards, there's a briefer wet season, known as the short rains, from october to december, and long—range forecasts suggest this could fail, too. 0ranges and browns on this map show predicted rainfall below normal. this would mean an unprecedented fifth consecutive failed rainy season. one reason is a long—lasting la nina in the pacific, which can bring weather impacts across the globe, including dryness in east africa. for people in eastern africa, in the regions where we have two rainfall season in a year, we need to have two consecutive rain seasons that have failed for people to start experiencing the severe impacts of this rain