Michelle fleury, donald trump said he wanted to and do stupid trade deals, cut tax and establish structure, we examine the economic consequences of the trump presidency. Welcome to the programme. Both before and after his election victory, donald trump has ruffled feathers at the highest levels. And yet he won in the places that mattered. His message was music to the ears of millions of blue collar workers, who had felt ignored for yea rs. Workers, who had felt ignored for years. He made promises aboutjobs and small businesses, trade deals and small businesses, trade deals and tax rate. So can he get thejob done, and how do americans feel know hes in charge . I think its going to be good because hes a good businessman. We know hes got smarts, business wise. Meijeri think that is what will help make America Great game, Keeping Ourjobs here. Our people need to be working. They need jobs here. And not convinced they will help the people that voted for him. I think the wealthy people will get wealthier and those who dont have money will sooii and those who dont have money will soon not have a lot of money. I think the gap between rich and poor will continue. I think his Economic Policy may be good, he has a good head on his shoulders. If you might think the wealthy will prosper under his reforms yet as far as the middle class i dont see that happening and as far as the averagejoe experiencing any benefit i dont see that happening either. Candidates promise all kinds of things on the Campaign Trail, a lot of it gets done, a lot does not. Can trump do some of the things hes pledged, helping me figure this out is jared bernstein, a seniorfellow helping me figure this out is jared bernstein, a senior fellow in the centre of policy and budget priorities, he worked in the Obama Administration and was Chief Economist and economic adviser to the former Vice President joe biden. We are alsojoined the former Vice President joe biden. We are also joined by one member of donald trump s transition team, Diana Furchtgott roth, senior fellow at the manhattan institute. And last but not least i am pleased to be joined by laurie waller, director of Public Citizen s global trade watch, National NonprofitAdvocacy Group that looks at government and corporate accountability in globalisation and trade. Laurie, if i could start with you, i want to talk about the issue of trade. One of the promises trump made on the Campaign Trail was to repeal nafta, is their president that this . Campaign trail was to repeal nafta, is their president that this7m Campaign Trail was to repeal nafta, is their president that this . It is possible. A president cant unilaterally withdraw from a Trade Agreement and All That Remains is whatever was permitted by congress which in the case of nafta is a very small part of the problematic provisions of jared. He small part of the problematic provisions ofjared. He could do it. It has not been done before but the reason why it seems so urgent is that just reason why it seems so urgent is thatjust under one government programmes that are over 900,000 American Workers certified by The Government as having lost theirjobs to nafta trade. And in the context of getting the model of trade right nafta is a well known hot target. Of getting the model of trade right nafta is a well known Hot Targetm Sounds like you agree with trump that america has lostjobs to mexico because of nafta. There is no doubt about it. We went from having a combined Trade Deficit with mexico and canada of about 9 billion before nafta went to a fact to the last full year of nafta trade, it is just simply that we went from not having and a visit to an enormous one and we have a list of the jobs that were lost. Certified by The Government. Diana, how will this help American Workers because this is not part of the problem, that the face of manufacturing is changing . Is it face of manufacturing is changing . Is it not . Face of manufacturing is changing . Is it not . That is definitely pa rt of is it not . That is definitely part of the problem. Also one reason thatjobs are moving part of the problem. Also one reason that jobs are moving to mexico part of the problem. Also one reason thatjobs are moving to mexico is the Corporate Tax rates in the usa are so the Corporate Tax rates in the usa are so high compared with other countries. We have a Corporate Tax rate of 39 federal and state compared with an oecd average of 2596. You are right that the statutory rate is as high as you say and it probably should come down, we probably agree on that but corporations pay their average effective rate, what they actually paid to the eye and are as is 26 , so paid to the eye and are as is 26 , so very much what diana said as the international rate. The problem is to get that they take advantage of so to get that they take advantage of so many loopholes that all of us would agree are a mess and should be fixed. They are not going overseas to games the tax system, they are gaming and here. I want to bring up something donald trump has talked about, tariffs. If you look at the auto industry, he has said that American Car Companies should be producing the cars in the us, otherwise they face tariffs. What do you think of that idea of tariffs . Is there a danger of a trade war of other countries retaliating . Tariffs always have to be kept in the back pocket. The fundamental problem is that we have so many regulations that we have so many regulations that this encourages companies to go offshore. Plus there is the mandate to produce small fuel efficient cars that no one wants to buy. So to make those in a cheaper Fashion Companies have incentives to go offshore. The problem with the tariff idea, as much as you suggested, is retaliation. If you Start Talking about tariffs of 45 , the numbers donald trump has thrown about, i think you do invite retaliation and at the end of the day that will not target the Trade Deficit the way we need to. It seems that as were thinking about what would be good trade rules, that would be the core reason by off shoring, because a bunch of shoring happened to canada, this is much morpheus standards than ours. The agreements themselves have rules that incentivise off shoring by lowering the risk premium of leaving the Inspector Privileges if you relocate investment and jobs to another country in the nafta son. Those rules that are in there because jared was negotiated Behind Closed Doors with literally hundreds of official corporate advisers who wrote the rules lots of often protectionist privileges and for that. So if you cut out these incentives to do the wrong thing, which even in a Free Trade Agreement includes expanding monopolies and blocking competition, they would bring down Consumer Prices are medicines, this is packed into nafta, if you cut out the garbage that was frozen forcing its way through and put some basic standards of competition, the way we have national law, you could have a very different dynamic about when investment would happen and who would benefit and it would be much more beneficialfor would benefit and it would be much more beneficial for people. Would benefit and it would be much more beneficial for peoplelj would benefit and it would be much more beneficialfor people. I want to bring it back tojobs. Donald trump has said he would like to grow the economy faster to create 25 millionjobs in the next the economy faster to create 25 million jobs in the next decade. Diana, how does he do this . Trade one part of it, what else . One part is bringing Companies Back from abroad, bringing earnings back from abroad. Theres 2 trillion worth of earnings abroad that have been kept there because of high tax rates, that would be one step, another step would be reforming regulations, to make it easier for employers to hire and promote, getting rid of the Affordable Care act which keeps Company Sizes low, and has an undue burden, so there are many, many ways to encourage companies to increase their hiring that we dont have now. Rolling back a lot of the obama politics that jared helped with the problem with the Trump Administration now talking and policy level is that they are just getting started. So by definition this is all speculative. But the two policies that they have really articulated and leaned into heavily articulated and leaned into heavily art repealing of the Affordable Care act that you had diana mention and these tax cuts that are massively tilted towards the wealthy. They significantly reduce the tax burden on those at the top of the scale and increase it on those at the bottom. And i think this goes exactly in the wrong direction in terms ofjob creation. You mentioned the afforda ble creation. You mentioned the Affordable Care act, opponents of it to say it is a job killer. The evidence is the opposite. The afforda ble evidence is the opposite. The Affordable Care act created something that 20 million more people got health care so that will involve doctors and hospitals. We cannot find evidence that it has hurt employment at all. When employers are required to provide an overly generous plan it increases the cost of employment and they hire fewer people. At this point we will say goodbye to lori waller, thank you forjoining us. Diana and jared are staying. Before we return to them will American Companies parking many overseas be persuaded to return that cash to the United States . Lets listen to our comedy consultant. Ireland and Global Companies paying tax. Context tax arrangements are a speciality here in dublin. So if president elect trump has some new plans it seems things could get messy. Now obviously i am not qualified in any legal sense or indeed any practical sense to offer Tax Planning Advice to large global multinationals. However, i am to large global multinationals. However, iam irish to large global multinationals. However, i am irish and tax planning is in our dna. For years before the special relationship with global tax. So when i heard that new donald trump planned to cut American Companies return the money to the us by offering them a tax holiday i thought, maybe theres an opportunity for me to open up a temporary global Tax Planning Office here in dublin. I may need, before i welcome clients, to do a bit of refurbishment around the office. That will do. No, no, you are not my first client, no, no. Iwould that will do. No, no, you are not my first client, no, no. I would say that with lottery tickets, they are an investment, so you probably could write them off as an expense. One of the questions people ask me is if donald trump does offer a tax holiday or some other tax incentive, will American Companies take advantage of it . What are the implications for the Irish Economy . Let me see. Implications. Maybe i should talk to an actual expert. Trump created a tax holiday, my best guess of what would happen would be the experience we sought when bush did it in 2005. A lot of investment flooded back into the us because they did not pay as much in tax, so fti and ireland fell which seems like a scary prospect especially for a country so dependent on foreign firms but in the same year we saw jobs by multinationals increased by 396. Jobs by multinationals increased by 3 . How does that work . They send the money home yet we get more jobs. Money is investment. It is very mobile. Jobs are a different aspect of it. Its a much more permanent decision process. Us multinationals who come to ireland have generally made long Term Investments and are here to serve the European Market and get access to european consumers, and the tax rate is releva nt consumers, and the tax rate is relevant in terms of why do they pick ireland, compared to choosing a different country in europe . They are not particularly in ireland because irelands tax rate is lower than the us tax rate. If the us took a more protectionist angle and started to increase tariffs and trade from other countries, to renege on various trade from other countries, to renege on various trade deals, it would likely reduce the us demand for exports from those countries. None of the countries are putting forward things really directed at europe so its all a question of whether they would have trickle on effects. Physios big tax story is sure to be donald trump s big tax plan. We dont know how exactly it will work. One thing is for sure, it will work. One thing is for sure, it will all be horribly complicated which means more work for global tax planners like me. Colum reagan. And you can see more of his short films on our website. Back with us roger redburn steyn, Diana Furchtgott roth and im also joined redburn steyn, Diana Furchtgott roth and im alsojoined by eugene sturdily, author of dead man ruling. He helped lay the groundwork for us tax reform and served as an assistant to the Treasury Secretary during the second term of president ronald reagan. Ifi during the second term of president ronald reagan. If i could start with you, theres been a lot of talk about what to do with american corporate profits that are parked overseas. How to bring them back to the United States. One thing floated is the idea of a tax holiday to tap into more than 2 trillion in profits parked overseas. How would it work . Repatriation of earnings from abroad as part of a bigger puzzle. By itself i dont think it does a lot. We have a Corporate Tax in the United States, worldwide that does not work very well. It has been falling apart for decades and a gradual rate. We collect mature reve nu es gradual rate. We collect mature revenues these days in Corporate Taxes and one reason for this is because corporations keep a lot of their earnings abroad. Its sort of a shell game. They keep money abroad, technically, it may not prevent them from doing too much because they can always borrow the same money but it does create certain legal problems in terms of bringing money back. If we give Repatriation Holiday it would bring back 20 of it, the people who dont wa nt to back 20 of it, the people who dont want to keep it abroad because its just not efficient to give it there, it tries to get it to a broader issue. In some ways it makes sense to wipe the slate clean. You are seeing positive and negative in some of it . I think if we could get a good Corporate Tax reform a Repatriation Holiday would make sense but by itself it doesnt do a lot. You are both keen to talk about taxes, this is the moment, jared, what do you think about what you heard . Repatriation holidays lose money and you cant pay for something that loses money. It is a lousy idea and much smarter to do tax reform top to bottom. The problem is in this time the minute you start to do Corporate Tax reforms you are closing loopholes, this deferral of Holding Earnings abroad is a classic example of a loophole in the Corporate Tax rate. Everyone starts complaining loudly, therein lies the challenge. Republicans and democrats do agree that our Corporate Tax rate is far above the other countries, and both agree it should be lower. We have very few opportunities for tax reform, we had the one that eugene was an integral part of constructing and we had tax reform in 2001 under president George W Bush and we must hope we get it this time. What about the criticism that it will push up the criticism that it will push up the deficit . Something republicans have been concerned about in the past. Donald trump is committed to keeping spending even. He would counter this with Spending Cuts. Tax reform would act as a stimulus and would bring in increased amounts of tax revenue, both especially in terms of the corporate rate and the individual rate. To the numbers add 7 individual rate. To the numbers add up . What is unique is that The Government is so overcommitted, committed to raising spending permanently way above the rate that reve nu es permanently way above the rate that revenues are rising so we have not only deficits, but having built into the law future deficits. So what this does politically is put congress and the president in this huge bind, so sometimes somewhere they have to start cutting back on these promises made to the public. I am being bipartisan about it, taxes too low to pay the bills which raises interest costs. So they are in this horrible bind where they have to go back on promises. Its a monstrous task which faces them. On a budget that is so out of work already, thats the dilemma, if you can get good Spending Cuts and good tax cuts together, make leaner government, i say good, it is pro growth but that will be harder to do in this current climate. Just to do in this current climate. Just to be clear, you have the Trump Administration significantly cutting taxes to the tunes of trillions of dollars over a 10 year budget window. Diana said, if you cut spending you can help account for that but trump has said he will not touch Social Security or medicare. That takes off the table one of the solution isjust that takes off the table one of the solution is just mentioned. That takes off the table one of the solution isjust mentioned. If you Ta Ke Solution Isjust mentioned. If you take that off the table and you cut taxes to the extent they say that they will do, the numbers dont add up. Can i give you some numbers to back that up . We have done an estimate, two years from now, going by modest growth rates, real revenue will increase by 850 billion. Thats significant. Thats just a couple of percent a year. Committed already to interest on that alone is 1. 3 trillion. So we have commitments way beyond the Revenue Growth meanwhile Everything Else under current law is going into a tailspin. Donald trump has pledged between three and 4 sustainable growth. How much can he control that, he inherits an economy with near full that, he inherits an economy with nearfull employment, how that, he inherits an economy with near full employment, how many years we have seen of the recovery, how much can he shared the economy . You cannot control growth but you can put in place policies that will encourage investment and work and thatis encourage investment and work and that is what he plans to do with his Regulatory Reform and tax reform. And when Congress Passes the tax reform, we willjust have to see what happens. I am certain we will not see growth rates of 3 4 . I could be wrong. Youd better be careful, jared i dont care what you do, you wont get to 3 4 sustained growth rates and this is the reason. All the stuff diana talked about sounds good, i dont really know what we mean by tax reform and deregulation, that the kind of things diana is talking about is what i call after the decimal point. That is a Few Tenths Ofa decimal point. That is a few tenths of a percent one way or the other. Doubling the Growth Rate Calls for one two things. Faster growth in the labour force and foster Productivity Growth. The labour force has slowed considerably and of donald trump has his way with immigrants it will slow even more, and Productivity Growth which has been slow, we dont know what will happen, if it doubles the troubles in the next few years. Are not going to commit to doubling the growth rate that i will say that in the past eight years we have not had a growth rate of more than 2 , to slow for the number of people who wa nt slow for the number of people who wantjobs slow for the number of people who want jobs and the growth we slow for the number of people who wantjobs and the growth we need. Slow for the number of people who want jobs and the growth we need. We are want jobs and the growth we need. We a re pretty want jobs and the growth we need. We are pretty much out of time. One last question, or a prediction from each of you, which policies will donald trump gets done . each of you, which policies will donald trump gets done . I believe there will be a tax reform, how big is another question. Biggar there will be tax reform and Regulatory Reform which will stimulator the economy. Im afraid the Trump Administration will be able to repeal the Affordable Care act and have no viable replacement. That is where we will leave it. All that is left is for me to thank my guests, jarrod burneston, Diana Furchtgott roth, and eugene stilley. Next week my colleague will be in bangalore to examine how a country with the Fastest Growing workforce in the world is coping with the slowdown in jobs growth. In the world is coping with the Slowdown Injobs growth. For in the world is coping with the slowdown in jobs growth. For now, though, from washington, dc, goodbye. A weekend of huge variety in the uk with one common denominator, ill show you what i mean with the help of some Weather Watcher pictures. Some hard frost around, in other places weve seen a lot of sunshine by day, this beautiful shot in cumbria on saturday. Some areas of mist and thick fog patches persisting all day in some places, for others it stayed disappointingly gloomy for much of the time as we have seen in mid wales. For all of us the common theme is that its cold out there. Theres milder air lying in wait in the atlantic, the question is, how quickly will it get to our shores. As the milder arrives you will see the Weather Fronts bringing wind and rain. A few showers even on sunday, no great mans but snow coming out of those showers on high ground. For many places it will stay dry and there will be plenty of sunshine across southern and eastern parts of england in particular. This is a snapshot, a lovely afternoon if you wear some layers, it might make 8 degrees on the south coast, for most places, four or five degrees on the south coast, for most places, four orfive in the afternoon is the best. Cloud further north and west, the odd shower, flecks of the pennines and southern scotland, some breaks in the cloud for Northern Ireland, most will be dry although we could see some fog patches lingering through the day. Speaking of fog that will become more of an issue through sunday night and into monday morning, particularly across the southern half of the uk. Some thick patches around. Notjust on monday dexter on tuesday as well, which could be more ofa tuesday as well, which could be more of a problem. Tuesday as well, which could be more ofa problem. Im tuesday as well, which could be more of a problem. Im expecting some disruption for england and wales, watch out for warnings, they could beissued watch out for warnings, they could be issued in the next few hours. Once the fog has cleared there will be some brightness around, it will be some brightness around, it will be chilly. For Northern Ireland and scotland, milder weather coming in off the atlantic. The milder air bringing more moisture and the prospect of some rain at some stage later in the week. The game on wednesday and many places will be dry. Some rain across western scotland, elsewhere drive. The latest wins in these areas, the chilly air holding on. Through the second half of this week these fronts begin to move east but by will it be a struggle. Which means there is a big . About how quickly those fronts arrived from the west and how quickly the milder air rises soi and how quickly the milder air rises so i put later in the week rather than being specific about thursday or friday. The idea is that those fronts stagger in from the east, the wins will pick up so that will clear the fog away, still a lot of dry area across central and eastern areas in particular, the chilly air holding on. I think as we had the weekend and beyond strengthening jet strea m weekend and beyond strengthening jet stream should push those fronts through and then will be into a different resume as we enter the month with a powerfuljet stream, particularly across northern parts of the uk. This will be the focus for whether rain bearing Weather Systems will be so to sum up the end of the month it will be milder across the atlantic, wettest in the northern areas, driest the further south and east we go. Thats it, i will update you again tomorrow. This is bbc news. Im martine croxhall. The headlines at 10. 00pm organisers in washington say half a Million People havejoined a protest led by women against the new Trump Administration hundreds of rallies have been held worldwide. There is nobody that feels stronger about the Intelligence Community and the cia than donald trump. President trump visited the cia and told officials he backs them 1000 . The former leader of the gambia, yahya jammeh, flies out of the country, ending weeks of political crisis. And nine people have now been rescued from the Italian Hotel which was buried by an avalanche three days ago 23 people are still missing