From across the uk to attend the coronation of king charles, which will take place on may 6 at Westminster Abbey in london. Youre watching bbc news. Now its time for ukraine how will it end . Gunfire. In the mud and trenches of eastern ukraine, this war still hangs in the balance. Both sides need a breakthrough. Ukraine, with Advanced Western weaponry, could well know seize the initiative. The ukrainians will continue to fight, whatever happens. So providing theyve got the tools to do thejob, they can do it. Slave ukraini but russia is not giving up. Neither side seems ready to negotiate. So could russia still defy the odds and win this war, or will ukraine prevail . In this programme, we are going to examine how either side could yet win in ukraine. More than a year after the invasion began, the fighting has reached another inflection point. Ukraine has the initiative. They are expected to launch a new offensive during the spring and summer, but if they dont make decisive gains quickly, that could put russia in the stronger position, because the longer this war drags on, the Greater The Odds of an eventual russian victory. Lets look first at whats put ukraine once more on the front foot. Modern, powerful western tanks have now started arriving in ukraine, and theyll be heading to the front. Thank you very much from ukraine, united kingdom. From the uk, challenger 2 main battle tanks. If used cleverly, these could potentially punch right through russian lines. From europe, german built Leopard Tanks have also arrived. And theres more armour on the way. The us is sending more than 30 of its mi abrams tanks. Russia, for its part says, well, the arrival of these western tanks wont change anything. The kremlin spokesman was pretty dismissive about it. Have a listen to this. Ok, but thats far from certain, as these tanks are far better armoured than anything else on the battlefield. And then there is artillery. Ukraine says it needs 350,000 shells a monthjust to hold back russian forces. The eu has now agreed agreed to a 2 Billion Euro deal to supply a million shelves. Kyiv calls this a game changer. And thats not all. Throughout the winter, thousands of ukrainian soldiers have been trained up at nato bases all over europe. They are returning to the battlefield just as russias own attempt at advance appears to be running out of steam. Over the winter, russia suffered huge losses of men and material. So too did ukraine, but the russians only gained tiny amounts of territory. In vuhledar, for example, it lost dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles. Around another objective, the city of bakhmut, the fighting has been drawn out and intense. The russians took huge casualties there and across that Eastern Front line. The bbc� s Quentin Sommerville witnessed the fighting in the donbas right up close with the ukrainian army. This infantrymen is only 22 years old. He is escorting us forward. He has just told me the village over here is half held by the ukrainians and half held by the russians. Explosion. Artillery fire. Thats two russian shells that have just come in. I think its tank fire. The safest place for these men is in the trenches. And Quentin Sommerville is with us now. Quentin, we got a flavour of it there in that clip. What is life like down at trench level . Well, frank, its very muddy and very dangerous. Weve just moved from winter into spring so there was this thick mud all over every battlefront that we went through, and in that particular set of trenches down in the south of donbas the men have been dug in there for about seven months and actually as i was going through that area they were digging the trenches deeper, and the reason they were doing that was because they are facing relentless russian fire every single day, and the russians are throwing everything at them, whether its automatic grenade fire, artillery fire, tank fire, grads, everything is being fired at that particular unit, and they are saying that whereas they do respond, they can in no way match the kind of firepower the russians have. Does the artilleryman think russia could win here . Translation its a good question. This question does need to be addressed to the senior military. Oh, that was close. Later in that report, he said to me, the russians have warehouses full of these shells, and certainly russia has lost its capability in some of the most sophisticated weaponry, but when it comes to your traditional Artillery Shells and grenades sent from automatic grenade launchers, theyve got plenty. Whoa you spent a lot of time with ukrainian soldiers. How do you rate them as fighters . I think that one of the things they always tell you is they always fetishise nato standards. When you meet. There are different parts of the Ukraine Armed forces, and depending on the brigade you meet or battalion you meet, some of them have had that nato training and they are very, very able, very capable, and theyve learned the ways to operate in urban combat and in the Trench Warfare weve seen. For others, that is not the case. They havent had that training particularly, the volunteers, and because weve seen significant attrition of Ukrainian Forces and a lot of russians, of course, have died on the front lines, but a lot of ukrainians have died too. Remember, ukraine is a far smaller country with farfewer reserves to draw upon. Well, quentin, stay there if you can, please. General sir Richard Sherriff was the former allied commander of europe for nato and also, very importantly, he was the author of a book Called War With Russia which has turned out to be pretty prescient. General, lets cut to the chase, here. Do you think russia could win this war . I dont, and i say that because the ukrainians will continue to fight, whatever happens. And ijust dont think the russians have got the capability, the means, to achieve the ends that putin has set for himself, and that end is to destroy ukraine as a sovereign state, to incorporate it into the russian federation, to put a Puppet Government of some sort in kyiv and to rebuild a Second Russian empire. General, ukraine has for the large part in the last 13 months fought a defensive war, trying to fend off this invasion. How good do you think it can be at offensive operations given that that is what its going to take to dislodge the russians. Well, the ukrainians have demonstrated pretty effectively in two very successful counteroffensives, north east of kharkiv and the recapture of kherson in november, so theyve got form here, they can do this. And, of course, before that, they stopped the russians dead in the Battle For Kyiv and forced the russians to withdraw, so that was a really significant victory for them as well. The ukrainians have given us a masterclass in operational manoeuvre and campaign design, so provided theyve got the tools to do the job, they can do it. Is there a risk that because ukraine has this great big long Shopping List of the weapons that it needs, including long range missiles and fighterjets, that it is not getting everything once from the at west, is there a risk that failing to send those weapons will cost it a victory in this war . There is a real risk that as a result of failing to give the ukrainians the tools to do the job, this will become a protracted, attritional conflict which will go on for a very long time. Think the Iran Iraq War of the 1980s as a sort of worst case attritional fight. And the message is clear, i think there is a clear equation here, the quicker ukraine gets the tools it needs to do the job, the quicker ukraine can achieve if not 100 of his military objectives at least enough of its military objectives to assure itself that it can be safe and moreover get that message finally into putins brain that hes not going to achieve his objectives and therefore he might as well stop fighting. So, yes, there is a real imperative from the west to continue to provide and to really ramp up that supply of weapons and other military capability, and of course logistics, ammunition, and the rest of it. There is a risk, though, of escalation, isnt there . We had that clash over the black sea not that long ago where russian su 27 fighters essentially brought down a us surveillance drone. How worried are you about escalation . Well, escalation is a risk, and it has to be taken very seriously indeed. We as nato, we as the west should not take counsel of our fears here. And lets put it into perspective. I think any use of Tactical Nuclear weapon or whatever, i think the signals would be pretty clear fairly early on, and im pretty certain that western intelligence agencies, satellites and the like will be tracking very carefully any potential roll out of warheads, linking up of warheads with delivery vehicles and the like, and im sure equally that the warnings have been made very clear to the russians at Different Levels in the kremlin and elsewhere that any such use will attract really, really painful significant consequences. And we dont need to. You dont need to tell them what the consequences would be in detail, but i think its enough to signal. What about russias ability to gear up its industry, to churn out relatively low grade, low quantity weaponry, but in vast numbers . Is there a risk that kind of strength in depth that russia has could eventually win this war for them . They are capable of pushing out vast numbers of expendable manpower, supported by huge quantities of artillery, but im not sure russia can continue to do that, and i think all the indications are that the Winter Offensives which, as you say, have been extraordinarily attritional, the sort of battles around bakhmut and the like, casualties on a scale which would be recognisable by any veteran who had thought through passchendaele or verdun in the first world war, they appear to be culminating, and the more russia fires its expendable manpower against the ukrainians, yes, the ukrainians are suffering and yes, they are taking heavy casualties, but i dont think the russians can continue indefinitely. To the lay observer, russian tactics dont seem to have evolved much since the second world war, i mean, hammer an objective with loads of heavy artillery and eventually send infantry to crawl over the rubble. I think what we see is a soviet Military Machine which is in a sense reflecting the state that it stirs, which is corrupt and incompetent, but nevertheless, that incompetence bears a danger because as a result of that, they have fallen back on plan b, attrition, destruction of cities, massacre of civilians, genocide, deportation of children, use of mass rape. So it is still a machine to be feared, and to be ultimately to be destroyed. All right, so we have examined the possible that ukraine could get the better of russia this summer, but what if that doesnt happen . What if things continue more or less as are now . Well, a War Of Attrition, and that is what this is starting to look like, probably favours russia in the long run. The kremlin knows that western support for ukraine simply cannot be sustained indefinitely at these current levels, and it has the advantage when it comes to manpower. Russia has far more troops than ukraine does, and in a long war that could make all the difference. Back during the second world war, for example, stalin used this superiority in numbers to great effect. Back to the present day, russias industry has been moving on to a war footing and President Putin really doesnt have to worry about domestic opposition. If he were to declare victory, it is important that we define what that word might mean. At a minimum, it means holding onto what russia has already ceased, so crimea and therefore illegally annexed blasts, or provinces in the south and east of ukraine, although actually, russia still doesnt control all of those areas. Seized. Even after an elaborate ceremony and ask though declaring them to be an eternal part of the russian federation. In moscow. And yet, still the longer russia occupies even a part of them, the greater the chance that it will get to keep that a territory in any eventual peace settlement. Then, the other end of the spectrum, the maximum definition of the russian victory would be their taking control of the whole of ukraine, including the capital kyiv, replacing president zelensky� s government, seizing all those expensive western weapons and inflicting a massive humiliation in the west. So, if this war does wind up with the result anyone within those two boundaries, the minimum and maximum definitions, then russia could still declare it as a victory. Anywhere within those two boundaries. So, does this mean that a long war inevitably plays into putins favour . Lets ask professor sam greene who is an expert on russia with Kings College london. Professor green, lets dig into what victory means for both sides. For ukraine, it is fairly straight forward, it means restoration of territorial integrity, the absence of Russian Troops and ideally some idea ofjustice, restoration and retribution from russia, prosecution of war crimes and that sort of thing. A victory for putin is whatever allows him to maintain his power within russia. He has tremendous leverage with which to do that, he controls state television, which is the only television available to most russians, he controls all of the parties that are competitive in the political system, he controls most of the levers of government and economy, which means that he can spin just about anything as a victory, at least for the population, and for large portions of the elite. So he can if he decides tomorrow, he has got as far as he can reasonably get, he does have the possibility of stopping, and putting up a banner that says, � mission accomplished. If this war grinds on into a stalemate which it has been a little bit looking like, a War Of Attrition, does that play into putins favour . I think it does. One of the things that putin has told people and it seems to have worked in terms of his rhetoric domestically, is that this is not a waragainst ukraine. A War Of Attrition against a much smaller and theoretically weaker country would be an embarrassing thing, but a war against a west that is hell bent on the destruction of russia, a war that is extension existential the survival of russian society, as putin has painted this, is one that will continue to motivate politics and sacrifice from everybody in the system. For quite some time. If this war were to end tomorrow, and it would then become clearer that frankly there is not, you know, a whole lot more that can be fought for at the moment. Then putin is it in a different position, he has to explain what all the sacrifice was for. How key do you think china is in a different position, resin russias ability to eventually become victorious in this war . We still dont know if they are going to provide weapons or not, but they are certainly providing political and moral support, it appears, even though they say they are neutral. I think what china is certainly pivotal to is the survival of putin as a political project. The reality is that having decoupled himself from the west, he needs investment capital, he needs diplomatic cover internationally, he needs friends in the world with which he can do business but also to send that signal to the russian population and elite that you are not alone in the world, yes, we have cut you off from europe but there are others out there and you can move in that direction. Without china, all that falls apart. Coming back to the idea of a russian victory, within those parameters, the minimum being holding on to what they already have taken and the maximum being overthrowing zelensky because my government and taken over the country, what is your prognosis . Putin did not expect to fight for this long. That much is clear. If he had won the resounding victory he expected in the early days, that would have been an easy thing. Right now, i think you may be coming to the conclusion that it is better to keep fighting, it is better to keep this war going on some level, may be a lower level grind it into low level skirmishes along the fairly stable line of control in the future, but as long as he can maintain the active conflict, it keeps politics focused on him, it keeps him in a position where he can keep demanding sacrifices and receiving sacrifices from the rest of the system in ways which might be much more difficult to do if this were were actually to end. All right, so lets take a step back and look at the bigger global picture. Where does the rest of the world stand this war . On this war. Russia still has friends around the world like south africa, for example, where its navy has recently been holding joint war games along with a chinese navy. Since then, putin has become a wanted War Crime Suspect with an Arrest Warrant issued by the International Criminal court. That should give some countries pause for thought. But even the United States is not a sure fire bet for ukraine. Under the biden administration, it has sent them over 40 million worth of military aid but if the republicans win the white house next year, they might well curtail that support. Lets look a little closer at what the impact of the weaponry of any right in ukraine could have. Well hear more from our reporter quentin somerville, but first here is carolina heard from the institute of the study of war. The arrival of tanks to the front line of ukraine is undoubtedly going to be a crucial part of the ukrainian ability to launch counter operations in the coming months. Ukrainian military. However, it is important to remember that tanks, just like any other western provided system, is not necessarily a golden bullet and not necessarily the answer to all of ukraines needs. So, the use of tanks to conduct effective mechanised Manoeuvre Warfare is incredibly important, but so is the continued support of the west, in terms of Artillery Supply and the supply of long range precision weapons such as the himars systems. On that point, i think the kind of so far the level of Cohesion Western support has surprised a lot of people, not least President Putin i am sure, but it cant last forever at this level, what happens if military support dries up, if for example, the republicans get in in the elections in the states and they dial down how much they are sending, can ukraine still fight this war . The interesting part is weve seen the ability of the ukrainians to conduct incredibly effective Lightning Counteroffensives earlier on in the fall of 2022. So, we saw the kharkiv and Kherson Counteroffensives occurring, effectively coping very quickly, this was when the west was still very much keeping ukraine on a Starvation Diet in terms of weapons. The goal should be that the west continues to provide ukraine with the systems they need. We know the Ukrainian Military has the ability to conduct counteroffensives without the systems. We are going to have a look at the map now and take a look at what an expected ukrainian counteroffensive would look like if they are going to advance. Russian controlled by the arrows showing what is expected, which is a which is a push south from the still ukrainian controlled city of zaporizhzhia to try to split into the russian controlled areas, quentin, do you think ukraine has enough in reserve and will be ready to carry out that kind of successful manoeuvre . In two. Well, there are two things that we know about ukraine at the moment, we know that they are preparing separately from all the other fronts they are facing for that offensive. They are keeping back resources, keeping back men, some of the men who have been trained overseas, some of the most accomplished soldiers, will be involved in that offensive. The second thing, really, i would say is that the one thing this war has taught me is that you can never underestimate the ability of ukraine to launch a surprise. No one really expected the kharkiv offensive. Certainly the russians didnt, it was hugely successful. There has been a lot of signalling about the separate offensive, it may well happen, there may be room for an offensive elsewhere. Carolina, you work for the Institute For The Study Of War which has become a byword for incredibly accurate and detailed maps, over the last year the map hasnt changed that much from a distance, the russian advances have been very small and incremental so not really since kherson says the russian Abandoned Kherson have we seen much change. Do you expect in the coming months and this year, the rest of this year the battle lines to change . I would say that we are entering the prime time for ukraine to regain the initiative and really take advantage of russian weaknesses. We have seen signalling on the part of ukraine Imagery Command that this may be in the south. Military command. There are also opportunities in other locations, and donbas and donetsk and we do expect the battle lines to change because the russian offensive has largely culminated in multiple areas on the front which will allow ukraine the opportunity to exploit this culmination and pursue their own counteroffensive in a way that will fundamentally change the front line. So, this war could still go in different directions, including the ukraine victory, or a long drawn out stalemate which would tend to work in russias favour. There is an urgency here for ukraine, which is why it is pushing the west so hard for more weapons. It knows that if it cant score a decisive victory against russia this year, then it may well have lost its best chance to reverse this invasion. Hello, there. We started off with a bit of a West East Divide first thing this morning. A lot of low cloud, misty and murky conditions on the east coast. Further north and west it was a beautiful start. Very tranquil with plenty of sunshine across Lake Windermere first thing. If we look at the satellite picture, you can see most of the cloud has been spilling in off the north sea. We will be chasing cloud amounts through the afternoon. On the whole though most of us will keep some decent spells of sunshine coming through. Always the risk of that cloud just sitting along the far east coast, may be thick enough for a spot or two of Light Drizzle from time to time. But with the best of the sunshine, the best of the warmth will be 16 celsius, 61 fahrenheit. The breeze will strengthen into Northern Ireland by the end of the afternoon. It will continue to strengthen overnight. That will prevent mist and fog patches reforming through the night. We may welljust reforming through the night. We may well just to see a little reforming through the night. We may welljust to see a little more cloud once again towards the east, with low to mid single figures to greet us first thing on monday morning. A bit of a chill in the air. Sunday will be a promising day. More of a breeze coming from a southerly direction. That will help lift and break that cloud quite nicely. I suspect as we go through the day on sunday if we have got some cloud to the east, hopefully the southerly wind will break it up. More sunshine coming through. Temperatures peaking at 17 celsius. Clouding over with outbreaks of rain into Northern Ireland by the end of the afternoon. That rain will push its way steadily eastwards overnight sunday into monday. Easter monday will see this frontal system bringing us change to the weather story, turning increasingly wet and increasingly windy as well. As the rain eases away, the Strong Westerly Winds will driving frequent showers as we go through the afternoon. Sunny spells and scattered showers for many on easter monday. Highs of ten to 15 degrees. That sets the trend for the week ahead. It looks likely to be a pretty unsettled one. Spells of rain, and the winds will strengthen, perhaps gale force at times. Showers, longer spells of rain, and temperatures easing away compared to today. Take care. Live from london, this is bbc news. The headlines and italian man has died and three british citizens have been wounded after a car ploughed into to arrest in a beach near tel aviv. Ukraine says its Energy Export can resume despite russia firing a total of more than 1,200 missiles at key Energy Facilities throughout the war. The taiwanese president s visit to the us sparks three days of military exercises from china. The king and queen consort have invited hundreds of volunteers and Charity Workers to next months coronation