Transcripts For BBCNEWS HARDtalk 20200114

Its about 4 30am in case you needed to know the time. Youre up to date with the headlines. Now on bbc news, time for hardtalk. Welcome to hardtalk, im stephen sackur. Though the fear of imminent war has receded, the middle east has been profoundly destabilised by the american assassination of iranian general Qasem Soleimani. The unfolding us iran conflict will impact the whole not least iraq, where the iranians are intent on hastening the end of america passed us hastening the end of america passed us military presence. Much now depends on the Strategic Vision of the Trump Administration. My guest, douglas silliman, was Us Ambassador in iraq until one year ago. Does trump have a strategy . If so, what is it . Ambassador Doug Silliman in washington, dc, welcome to hardtalk. Steven, im very happy to be here. Well, you have a very special perspective of whats happened over the past ten days or so as the last retiring ambassador in baghdad, you left one year ago. From your perspective, does the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in baghdad appear to you both lawful and wise . I must say first of all im not going to address the question of whether it is lawful or unlawful because im not an expert in International Law particularly good diplomatic historian. Looking at this from the standpoint of President Donald Trump and the Trump Administration, he seems to prefer shaking up the situation to see how the chips fall and then try to make things go his way on the back end. I think certainly with the killing of Qasem Soleimani, and also the killing of the chief iranian lieutenant, abu mahdi al muhandis, inside iraq, he has certainly shuffled the deck and made things a little bit more interesting on the back end. Shuffled the deck you say, its a metaphor that implies gambling. Do you regard this move as a high risk gamble . I dont know if this is a high risk gamble, because theres certainly a lot of reason why an American Administration want to take out Qasem Soleimani, especially since the us invasion of iraq in 2003, soleimani has driven the iranian expansion into iraq, syria, into yemen, afghanistan and pakistan to some extent and has consolidated the control of the revolutionary guards inside iran and planted sleeper cells and trained rebels in saudi arabia, bahrain and other places in the region. He has been one of the most destabilising figures and has certainly been the mastermind behind the post 2003 hegemonic iranian expansion into the region and support for lebanese has blah. So he is a very high level target to take out, and i think iranian strategy and probably some of the administration will suffer without him at the helm. Interesting you rate it as that significant and i want to get back to soleimani and indeed the wider iranian influence in iraq a little later in the interview, but one more point on the issue of lawfulness. You very carefully say its not for you tojudge the you very carefully say its not for you to judge the lawfulness or not, i would put it to you at that as a Us Ambassador long standing, it really does matter to you and your successof really does matter to you and your successor in baghdad this question of whether its legal or not. You are there not as President Trumps representative but a representative of the us government, a government that prides itself by abiding by us, International Rules and laws. When you hear the un special raconteur or on extrajudicial executions, agnes concluding that in this case the test of legality or illegality is unlikely to be met, i. E. It looks illegal to her, you must be worried . Im worried about the reputation of the United States but frankly the reputation of the United States is still going to be shaky given the policies of the Trump Administration in many other places in the world. The reality is theres also a strong argument to made for self defence, and thats the argument the american men administration is making. I am aware from my time serving as a us diplomat of what Qasem Soleimani and some of the groups he supported and trained in iraq and elsewhere have done to try to target american diplomats, american servicemembers and other Coalition Members serving in iraq and also other places in the region. Im quite certain he was behind the escalating attacks in 2019, the attacks on shipping outside the strait of hormuz, attacks on saudi civilian infrastructure, the downing of an american drone and the attacks on abu cake, the Saudi Arabian Oil Processing centre. Theres a number of reasons you can define this as an act of self defence. Ambassador, if i may say so, when you put it like that it makes me wonder why the americans sat back so long and allowed Qasem Soleimani to build his expansionist Network Inside iraq. You were sitting there as ambassador for more than two years. Where you co nsta ntly for more than two years. Where you constantly telling washington they should be addressing in really serious terms what soleimani was building inside iraq with all of those popular militias, the Popular Mobilisation units, the shia forces at his disposal. Should america have acted sooner . I was telling washington absolutely the threat i saw both to american policy and americas incidents serving in iraq from the iranian supported shia militias. I will not paint the entire Popular Mobilisation forces units with the same brush. There are some that were very responsive to soleimani and iran and there were others who are more iraqi nationalist and even some of the units were trained by the Coalition Military and later absorbed into the Popular Mobilisation forces. A number of shia militias, most of them predated the rise of isis, and many of them cut their teeth in fighting American Forces in iraq between 2008 and 2011, forming the backbone of soleimanis iraqi proxy forces. They have been dangerous for a long time, and i was absolutely telling washington that they were dangerous. How difficult is it as an ambassador to represent a government that seems so chaotic in its thinking . President trump in the last 48 hours has said he had direct information, there were four attacks in train under soleimanis guidance on four different embassies in the region. The defence secretary, mark esper, said he didnt see any such evidence. Youve been at the sharp end working for the Trump Administration as an ambassador. How difficult is it to make sense of what goes on in washington . difficult is it to make sense of what goes on in washington . I would also say the Trump Administration is not the First Administration that had contradictions, and as an ambassador or a more junior diplomat, i generally find related different statements and try to walk down the middle to try to make sure i captured the message washington was trying to convey. What about when the message isnt clear at all . What about when the president is speaking off the cuff, random quotes that dont seem to tally with the intelligence and information coming from other parts of the security establishment. What do you do then . Then you go to the basic point that underlies what everyone is saying, Qasem Soleimani and iranian supported forces and Iranian Forces in some cases posed a danger to american and Coalition Forces in iraq and in the region and likely to american diplomats in embassies in the region as well. Let us now consider what next in iraq. Its a political situation you know very well. You would have seen the acting Prime Minister has said this egregious violation of iraqs sovereignty must be met with a response and he supports the parliamentary vote to expel us troops from iraqi soil. Do you think thats going to happen . Its a very good question and i honestly do not know yet. I will also note when the Iraqi Parliament took its vote, theoretically there were 170 votes to zero but nearly that many members of the parliament, mostly kurdish and sunni members, but also some shia members, boycotted the session because they did not agree with the vote being taken. I also heard many allegations of threats of physical harm to mps who did not come and vote for the resolution to ask the Prime Minister to ask Coalition Forces to leave. What you have seen since that vote is statements by prominent politicians in the kurdistan, a number of sunnis and a couple of fears in support of a continued Coalition Military presence, focused on fighting isis and focused on training and professionalising the mainline Iraqi Security forces. The air force and the counterterrorism forces. You talk about the focus on the Islamic State group but the truth is the 5000 or so military personnel in iraq are completely hamstrung. They have bunkered down and they are focused on their own forced rejection, such is their own insecurity in iraq today, and they certainly arent doing any counter is operations in conjunction with the Iraqi Military, which they dont seem to trust in. That entire is strategy lies in ruins today. Seem to trust in. That entire is strategy lies in ruins todaylj would actually take issue with your statement that the iraqi army or the us army do not trust the iraqi army. What you have in iraq unfortunately is Security Forces that are split in the middle. Youve got the mainline forces, the army, the air force and the navy, and the counterterrorism service, largely supplied and trained and mentored by Coalition Forces. Then you have the Popular Mobilisation forces, which have been dominated by iran and Qasem Soleimani throughout this whole period. The impression i get from people still in baghdad is the personal and cooperative relationships between Coalition Military and the Iraqi Military remain strong. There is, however, more tension with the Popular Mobilisation forces forces, especially those mortified with Qasem Soleimani. With respect. No, no, to answer your question, the violence of the past week and a half has constrained what the nato mission and what the coalition has been able to do, and it is incumbent upon the Prime Minister and the Iraqi Government to put in place methods to protect Coalition Forces from attacks from other parts of the Iraqi Security forces. This is an issue with which ive been most frustrated throughout my period, both under the 0bama administration and Trump Administration, the unwillingness or inability of the Iraqi Government to challenge the expansion of these shia militias to conduct activities, use of force separate from the command structure of the iraq with the Prime Minister at the top. Surely another a strong relationship with the Iraqi Government, which of course right now is still headed up by the acting Prime Minister, and at the same time donald trump has started issuing threats toward the acting Prime Minister and his government saying that if they couldnt make good on any attempt to remove forces from iraq and the most punitive sanctions the iraqis had ever seen will be imposed, and we have got one source today talking about the americans telling the acting Prime Ministers office that the us is countenancing blocking iraqis account at the Federal Reserve bank in new york, which would effectively completely destroyed iraqis oil economy. What on earth is going on here. What does donald trump one from the iraqis . Does he want to be their friend or does he now see them as an enemy . On the economic front the Iraqi Government has been cooperating with the us treasury to prevent the flow of dollars into iran. As part of the sanctions, because we are afraid that especially the force in the revolution regards use the hard currency they earned to expand their activities into an outside of the region. Iraq has been very cooperative, and we think relatively few dollars have gone into iran from iraq. Now that im outside the administration i dont want to speak of it too much, but i know that when i was doing myjob in baghdad, we we re i was doing myjob in baghdad, we were concerned that if the cooperation of the iraqi treasury or the Iraqi Central Bank ended it would be much easierfor iran to get dollars to iraq, and i think that is one of the main fears. Because the goal of iran, of qasem, was not only a security goal. You keep telling me about all the concerns you had as ambassador about the various leverages inside iraq. It is it not your concern that the killing of Qasem Soleimani has actually strengthened irans hand in iraqi . It has made it much more difficult for your us troop presence to continue. It has made it more difficult for those allies of the United States inside iraq to have their voices heard, and what we see is an iran which over the next few months and years has every prospect of projecting more power and control over iraq. What i think the killing of Qasem Soleimani has done has a Short Term Impact that is sort of what you describe. It is clear that those in iraqi who would like to see a continuation, an increase, of iran in influence in the country, now have more enthusiasm for that point iranian have more enthusiasm for that point iranian influence. It also has a short term benefit to. 0r iranian influence. It also has a short term benefit to. Or i should say provides an opportunity to an Iraqi Government that wants to be more independent of tehran and for an International Community that would prefer to see iraqi plug into the World Community and the World Economy more effectively. Let me tell you why. Qasem soleimani and his iraqi lieutenant both accelerated expansion of iranian influence, attacks on coalition and other forces, and support for shia militias in iraq. They were also a break on those activities when tehran and qasem so them to be in the benefit of iran. I suspect what you will see inside iraqi over the coming year or two will be something akin toa coming year or two will be something akin to a power struggle. The shia militias in iraqi are not unified, they are made up of individual commanders, often brigade sized units, who have now lost their recognised command structure. And i think they will now begin to struggle and jostle for predominance amongst this group. One thing seems clear, that as a result again of the soleimani assassination, tehran is now intent on pushing ahead with its nuclear programme. They havent formally left the international agreement, the so called jcp away, but they are now enriching uranium to new levels. They are to all intents and purposes back on the Nuclear Weapons track, agree . think this is in fact correct, and there are actually three points i wa nt to there are actually three points i want to make jcpoa. There are actually three points i want to make jcpoa. All of there are actually three points i want to make jcpoa. All of what has taken place in the last two weeks has shuffled the deck, as i said, but it has not resolved any of the underlying issues. From the standpoint of washington and largely from the west there are still three big issues that iran continues. 0ne isa big issues that iran continues. 0ne is a support for proxy forces in the region. The second is the now lack of commitment to thejcpoa, the nuclear agreement, and the third is irans development and deployment of Ballistic Missiles, and you saw the specific use of iranians Ballistic Missiles in the attacks on Coalition Forces last week. From the iranians side, you still have the United States, which is outside thejcpoa, and you have a United States which is not only supporting sanctions but last week secretary of state pompeo and secretary of the treasury mnuchin double down on sections and impose a mnuchin double down on sections and imposea number of mnuchin double down on sections and impose a number of other sanctions, so the reasons for the tension or remain there. But ifi so the reasons for the tension or remain there. But if i may, so the reasons for the tension or remain there. But ifi may, iwant to keep this as simple as possible. It just seems to to keep this as simple as possible. Itjust seems to me and to many observers around the world there is still a fundamental contradiction, a deep confusion in trumps Strategic Vision for iran and the wider middle east region. And david singer of the New York Times put it very well the other day. He said mr trump has yet to resolve the two conflicting instincts that he has on National Security. That is, on the one hand, bellicose city, and on the other hand, desire for disengagement. So for you, is a 35 year long who is recently out of baghdad, which is driving a Strategic Vision here . Is it the gut bellicose city of trump, or is it the desire, as he has said so many times, to get us forces out of this middle east sand where so much blood has been shed for so little . Which is it . I think it is fundamentally the difficulty that Trump Administration has with following and articulating a consistent set of goals that they wa nt to consistent set of goals that they want to see on iran bellicosity. The three that i just want to see on iran bellicosity. The three that ijust mentioned, Ballistic Missiles, Nuclear Weapons and support for proxies, are always in the mix. But there are other members of the administration, and i am not certain where President Trump fits in that, who would like to see regime change. Although last week President Trump said very clearly in public remarks that he did not seek regime change in iran. I think that there are still people in the administration hoping that pressure on the uranian economy, and perhaps now pressure on the quds force and the military, will result in a revolution from within inside iran. Ifi revolution from within inside iran. If i may say so, ambassador, thats a very interesting answer because you have just revealed your very deep confusion. Because you have just left government, lets not say the administration, but you have been in baghdad for a long time representing the us government. It sounds to me like you are deeply, deeply confused about who is really driving policy in the white house, and what that strategy is. Well, the day after i believe, last week, President Trump said i do not seek regime change, former National Security adviserjohn bolton tweeted that he supported regime change. And ifi that he supported regime change. And if i were in tehran, and i was not getting a consistent message from washington that we do not seek to pull down the regime, i would be very reluctant to go into any sort of negotiations. I would also say that it appears to me that the Trump Administration seeks iranians to capitulation under pressure. As i have said a couple of times in the media, economic sanctions are a tactic, they are not a strategy or a goal. And i am struggling to find out what does the Trump Administration hope to achieve at the end of this road, if it wishes negotiations, does it want to do negotiations, does it want to do negotiations in conjunction with our traditional allies, as we did in the jcpoa, plastic Security Council members . Do we seek a Smaller Group . And what is in it for iran if they engage in negotiations . Because the Trump Administration has been unable to articulate what the end result, the benefit for iran would be, were they to engage in serious negotiations on the three issues i mentioned. You say you are struggling to really comprehend what the trump and gamers. Many other diplomats have quit saying that they can no longer serve a president that they dont really respect, in terms of the way he conducts foreign policy. I am of the way he conducts foreign policy. Iam mindful that of the way he conducts foreign policy. I am mindful that bill burns served 35 years and the state department and in diplomacy, just the same way you did with your 35 yea rs, the same way you did with your 35 years, and he left saying this. He saidi years, and he left saying this. He said i have never seen an attack on diplomacy as damaging as what we have seen under the Trump Administration. Notjust on the state department as an institution, but our international influence. Did you leave feeling the same, and is that frankly why you were pleased to leave government . I think that the Trump Administration came in in 2017 not quite knowing what to do with the state department. First of all, the state department. First of all, the way that we are structured, if you look at the top, with ambassadors, ambassadors are the personal representatives of the president s that appoint them, as well as the representatives of the United States. And i think that President Trump felt that all of the ambassadors appointed by president 0bama really represented 0bama and did not represent him. So you have seen a replacement of a lot of ambassadors, and the departure of a lot of people. Even though they were career diplomats, who had been in senior positions in the 0bama administration. So i think some of thatis administration. So i think some of that is trump not believing that a kudrow of diplomats, of civil servants, who are committed to the constitution, would be as committed to him as he would like, and i think he wanted to see more of his own people in senior positions at the state department cadre. People in senior positions at the state department cadre. And to put it bluntly, were you glad to get out . I should say i am very happy now, being in the private sector, andi now, being in the private sector, and i enjoy the opportunity for the first time in 35 years to say what i actually believe, as opposed to having to speak only on behalf of the United States. So i found a bit of freedom in leaving the us government. All right, well, ambassador douglas silliman, i thank you very much indeed for being on hardtalk. Stephen, thank you very much. It was a pleasure. Hello there. Storm brendan brought some very strong winds and heavy rain to the north and the west of the uk, primarily for Northern Ireland and for western scotland. You can see the system here, wound itself up over the atlantic, lots of isobars on the chart, hence gales with gusts up to 80 90 mph across the north west corner of the uk. These are severe gales, storm force winds, and also heavy rain. And the rain has swept its way northwards and eastwards, eventually clearing away from the south east early on tuesday. Weve got lots of showers packing in behind across the north and west, where snow will fall over the high ground. Watch out for icy patches across the north of the uk to start tuesday morning. A little less cold the further south that you are. But we look to the south west, the next area of low pressure moving up to bring another spell of rain and gales as we head through the course of tuesday. Still stays quite blustery across the north of the uk, as storm brendan continues to retreat northwards. There will be some sunshine through the morning, but then the clouds build and the rain starts to pack into the south and the west, pushes northwards. Could be that it could be windy across the eastern side of england as well on tuesday. Stronger winds perhaps than what we saw on monday. 40 50 mph gusts, 65 plus across some of the headlands in the south west. Now, in the north its going to remain quite chilly, with these wintry showers, four or five degrees. But, in the south, 10 13 celsius. Will be quite mild, despite the wind and the rain. That system pushes off into the north sea as we head on into wednesday, and then were in a run of west, south westerly blustery winds, with sunshine and showers. It will take a time for that weather front to clear away from the south east through wednesday morning, but eventually it will, and then many of us will see some sunshine. But it will be quite blustery, particularly in the north and west, where there will be wintry showers here. A few showers around the irish sea coast as well. A few showers around some irish sea coasts as well. Youll notice the temperatures down a little bit, so it will feel a bit cooler on wednesday, but at least many of us will have the sunshine to compensate. Theres a short lived window of fine weather, because the next frontal system will move up from the south west to bring more wet and windy weather for thursday, so the winds could be quite strong. Some of the heaviest rain in the north and the west of the country. Therell be a bit of sunshine further east, but it looks like the clouds will tend to build up as we move through the day. That rain will be quite heavy in the south west, in towards wales. Again, perhaps a little bit milder in the south, double figure values here. 7 9 degrees further north. And then its all change. To end the week, it looks like High Pressure will begin to move in as that low pressure clears away, so itll settle down. But one thing you will notice it will turn colder, particularly as we head on into the weekend. This is the briefing. Im sally bundock. Our top story british Scientists Say australias fires are a taste of what the world will experience as temperatures rise. The us says it no longer considers china to be a currency manipulator, just days before the two seal the trade deal. Im howard johnson, in the philippines, standing in front of taal volcano, which continues to belch steam and ash into the sky. Volconologists say there could be a hazardous eruption within hours or days. The ethnic kazakhs who crossed into china and couldnt go back, claims of torture and brainwashing aimed at beijing