hello and welcome to the programme that brings together the foreign journalists who write, blog and broadcast to audiences back home from the dateline — london. it's been a convention—busting week, this one — a queen's speech delivered for the first time in 70 years by a royal other than the queen. two countries strictly neutral for 80 years, preparing to take sides. in northern ireland, a party in favour of reuniting the island of ireland topped the poll for the first time in the centuries since ireland was partitioned. to discuss all that and more, in the studio are brian o'connell, former bureau chief in london for the irish broadcaster rte, eunice goes, portuguesejournalist and university lecturer and newly created british citizen, and jeffrey kofman, who's been both a war correspondent and news anchor in canada and the united states. good to have you back with us. jeffrey, let's start with nato expansion. sweden and finland, finland's president, sauli niinisto, said on friday he's going to ring president putin and tell him that the situation has changed. how big a change is this, do you think? you know, i think if you'd looked ten years ago and said this, it was impossible. this was a religion in these two countries. neutrality. the concept of...of being western, but not not glued at the hip or fused at the hip. and i think that this is really affirmation that, while ukraine is losing in the sense of the devastation to the country, russia can't win. and putin's legacy is exactly... when he looked in the mirror and said, "let's do this," this is not what he saw. his view was occupy ukraine in three days and shatter nato. and he has done the exact opposite. he has done the impossible. he's actually united the disparate countries of the west in the eu, in nato, and he has created a cohesive western agenda. i mean, you have even hungary, a bit of an outlier, but even hungary toeing the line with with nato with the eu. with nato, with the eu. and i think that one of the leaders of finland or sweden said this week that putin just has to look in the mirror and and ask, "how did this happen?" he did it. and so it is a sea change really historically in relations. and the threat of to him is exactly what he what he doesn't want. the idea that there is now this seamless border that nato will protect, protect, invade one all will all will come to your defence. the problem, i suppose, in some ways that comes from this is what it means for those countries that are not in nato, whether it in some ways increases their vulnerability potentially to russia to to be threatened, to be bullied, potentially for worse for countries like moldova and georgia. that is for sure, because i think the message of this crisis has been if you're not a member of nato, you're going to be invaded by russia. and so if you are a member of nato, you are protected. but i think those countries, georgia and moldova, they've made a request to join nato at the same time as ukraine. but it's going to be protracted, it's going to be... moldova is divided anyway. absolutely. so, as with ukraine, the whole question of territorial integrity is going to be an issue. and i think nato will also will deal with these countries, with these applicant countries in this same different way it has dealt with ukraine, because still today, it's not completely clear that ukraine willjoin nato after this war. there's the whole issue of how russia will react. i willjust go back on the question of sweden and finland, because one interesting thing is that it's not completely a surprise that these countries are joining now, because since the collapse of the soviet union in 1991, that both sweden and finland have started a process of getting closer to the western alliance. they became members of the european union. they've been reforming their armed forces in a way that make them completely compatible with nato's. so it's been quite a slow process, but since the annexation of crimea in 2014, these countries have started to prepare and they've started increasingly... including to invest in their armed forces because they started to feel, well, that russia was becoming quite unpredictable. and for finland also, finland accepted the famous finland—ization after 1948, accepted that essentially they didn't have complete sovereignty over their defence and foreign policy. but there were huge sacrifices, and i think this is something that we never discussed enough — how hard the sacrifices that the finnish people made to in order to to maintain their own peace and also the stability in the region. i want to pick up... i don't want to stop brian from taking part. the point the point about georgia and moldova is really, really interesting because i think that what you what you're seeing is that these former soviet republics or satellite countries of the east of the soviet bloc. which were part, in putin's vanity, part of the soviet empire. what we're seeing now is a realization that this was a colonial empire, just as the british empire and the dutch empire, the spanish empires were. and these countries are starting to recognize, "wait a minute, this was better for you than for us." and so the idea of bringing back the nostalgic view of greater russia and make make russia great again, what we're seeing in all of these kyrgyzstan, kazakhstan, the rebellions, the refusal to support overtly putin's line, the the the re—routing of oil around russia to to western europe. these are signs that there is no greater russia left to be saved, that he can be as violent and aggressive as he wants, and he can do terrible damage. and he has nuclear weapons. but there is nothing... and even in belarus, which is his one puppet state, the railway workers blew up the railway to stop him from sending his military material into ukraine. so even in that country there, there is a sense of at least a pocket of rebellion, which suggests that putin's dreams are simply out of date. right. yeah, well, it's it is - the standard autocracy. it is the route to autocracy, where you get to the pointl where you still have people around you, but you pick who you - want because they're - reflecting your own views. and so his view of the world, - i mean, somebody obviously didn't say to him, "hang on a minute. if you do that and you say..." too many yes men and women. i mean, it's that's not complicated. and, you know, that's what's happened in this case. - the other interesting| thing is that finland's border with russia is, what? 12,1,300 kilometers? and the kremlin spokesman said i the other day that they were going to take what was it — strategic, strategic, i military and technical measures, - which presumably means putting a lot of weapons along the border, as they did with ukraine. - but ijust wonder. what he's got left. that'll cover 1,300 kilometers. given the losses the russians are sustaining at the moment. i wonder — a couple of other points, you mentioned sacrifices the finns may be making. and sweden obviously still hasn't formally decided whether it'sjoining. but they published a report on friday which was suggesting that there were good arguments for the swedish foreign minister saying that actually she felt it would make the risk of war less likely, because it raised the stakes if russia did attack any of the other countries. butjust in terms of the the price finns may pay, already we hear that a russian electricity company may cut off 10% of finland's electricity supplies, because suddenly there's a problem about payment that's mysteriously arisen just as this announcement is made. we hear that putin is threatening to station, possibly, nuclear—armed missiles in kaliningrad, which is sort of that little enclave between lithuania and poland on the baltic. i mean, there are ways that he can make people feel even more nervous if he wants to, without actually taking any overt military action. yes. and i think both sweden and finland are pondering those risks and they are weighing what are... is it a bluff? and is there also the potential for greater security? and there's going to be that vacuum between being an applicant member state and then joining. and that period of time can be very well exploited by russia. but then, in the end, it's a calculation and they have to call off putin's game and take a decision for them, for themselves and taking on that risk. jeffrey, you said at the start of this discussion that you've raised a rather ominous prospect that russia can't win. but ukraine, meanwhile, is being kind of blasted apart. i mean, it's stalemate, isn't it? it feels like a stalemate. i think that what we saw yesterday and this morning in the newspapers here — the images of a russian battalion really — massacred is perhaps the wrong word — but destroyed. 50, 60 tanks. estimates of up to 1,000 soldiers killed in this one ambush a tactical ambush by the ukrainians. russia has a very large army. but it has taken clearly... we don't know the numbers. we hear ranges of 5,000 to 20,000 plus soldiers killed. but also a huge amount of armaments killed. but we're also... we also know that morale is bad. food rations aren't getting there. they're not able to supply. you could argue that they can keep supplying, but... but there is going to be a problem. and at some point he's going to have to confront the issue of a draft, and then he's going to have to stop calling this a special operation and call it a war. and even for him, that's politically a difficult switch to pull. and so i don't know what it is, but it seems to me that what zelensky offered some time ago, which was ceding some territory, which feels awfully painful given what's happened, may be the best outcome possible to let him walk away with at least claiming that he liberated something and get out of there. and as long as zelensky got territorial security from europe to say anything more? no. that feels, i think, a lot of ukrainians would have difficulty even with that. but it's the least worst bad option. if you look at what's happened to mariupol, the destruction that ukraine has lost simply in the destruction of its infrastructure, the death of so many people. and it's hard to imagine the rebuilding, but this is at this point, a stalemate. you're right. let's move on to another stalemate, although one thankfully with less terrifying consequences. and that is what's happening over the power—sharing executive in northern ireland not being re—established because the unionist party, which actually didn't win — top the poll in that election last week — but nonetheless power—sharing requires both sides to agree to it, says it won't until the northern ireland protocol has been scrapped. now, without going into the detail, i'll leave that to brian because he understands it and i don't in that level of detail. it's a bit like the schleswig—holstein question in the 19th century, i'm beginning to feel. in terms of the the effect of this, this is part of brexit which is not quite finished yet. can you explain that aspect of it? well, it is not quite finished yet, because the british government has left this as kind of an open wound that is festering and festering, and it has been there since the very, very beginning. because essentially what britain is claiming is the right to undermine the single market, the european union single market. and this is something that is essentially that brexit does not give it the right. the european union has been extremely flexible in the interpretation of the single market. it has been very sensitive to the peace process and conflict resolution in northern ireland. it had first proposed a backstop. it has now also suggested... let's not go back to the backstop! but it has also proposed quite a flexible arrangement whereby the border — and there has to be a border — because brexit means the re—establishment of a border between the united kingdom and the european union. the uk is no longer... absolutely. the island of ireland, the republic is in the european union. so it was agreed that the border the uk is physically on the island. the it was agreed that the border would not be between the republic of ireland and northern ireland to safeguard the peace process and the good friday agreement. so it had to be on the irish sea. so that border has to remain there. and the way that the european union sees it is that, "well, this was clear." this was clear since the beginning of brexit, they've been talking about this problem since 2016. the british government signed the northern irish protocol in 2019 and borisjohnson said it was a great deal, a fantastic deal, an open trade deal and said it was fabulous. a fantastic deal, an oven—ready deal and said it was fabulous. it sorted all the problems and so on. so what the european union sees is an incredibly bad faith because they signed it clearly with a view to break it soon after. and so they are saying, "well, this is a government that is not serious. why are we going to waste our time proposing creative solutions..." and they are very bureaucratic. they are very detailed and so on. "why are we going to waste our brainpower developing these super complicated solutions if this british government is not is not serious, it's not taking any of these proposals seriously, and more importantly, has not made any alternative proposals and not presented them on the table?" brian, why are the implications of this within northern ireland so toxic, given that trading is going on as we speak? it's not as if people have stopped trading goods across between the uk and the great britain part of the uk and northern ireland and the republic of ireland and therefore the rest of the european union? well, in terms of the governance of northern ireland, just, - you know, on its own, - the northern ireland assembly is now paralyzed for the reasons that... i you see on friday, but couldn't even elect any business executive. and and that means that. you have a sort of caretaker i administration, civil servants, i outgoing ministers whojust keep the lights on and so on. where — northern ireland has probably the longest and the worst waiting lists in the nhs. i they need further investment, education, infrastructure, - all those kind of things, - and the protocol and the checks that come with the protocol. that come with the protocol, even though the majority of members of the new northern ireland assembly actually agreed to live with it, they are hurting small- and medium—sized businesses in northern ireland. _ there's no doubt about that. so there is room for negotiation in terms of, you know, - "let's not worry too much about that category of goods," and so, - so on and so forth. and the talks had been l going on for a long time, and then they were paused because of the election - and they all got quite technical. so there's a whole range of things. when maros sefcovic says that — the commissioner who's- dealing with this for the eu — when he said, "we can't- renegotiate it," and liz truss said, "well, we might have _ to take unilateral action. " he's right, they can't renegotiate it. - but there are ways to, to, to... and it's just about language and everything else. but for the dup, i it's more than that. every time you hear— jeffrey donaldson saying that, talk about it, as he did _ when when they came out of stormont, refusing to to cooperate - with the election of a speaker, he said, "we've got to get rid of this. i the protocol has to go." he's not interested in half measures. i that's the difficulty. before i bring injeffrey, can i ask you one question? i was very struck by something. sam mcbride, who is political editor for the newsletter, which is one of the leading unionist papers in northern ireland, you said that polling of 80% of people in northern ireland, regardless of their views on this subject, whether they're nationalist, republican or non—aligned, they do not trust what the british government says on the protocol. now, if they don't trust it and the eu don't trust it, there's a real problem here. well, i've got news for you. neither does the government. and, you know, those are the... i'm laughing, but it's not funny. it's not funny. no. i mean, the damage that it has done, that this has done, you know, in dublin certainly, and in brussels is absolutely enormous. and borisjohnson�*s going to northern ireland next week to talk to the party leaders. but the problem is boris johnson told the dup, if you cast your mind back a couple of years, that there wouldn't be any checks. and that oven—ready deal... with the deal and it was fine. and then during the election campaign, he he told some exporters in northern ireland that if they'd got any customs forms to fill up, they should tear them up or call him or something like that. now, borisjohnson has has let those people down. he's betrayed those people, and he's going back again. how on earth could anybody trust anything the man says about this at this stage? brian, i'm curious, - as you know, as i first went to northern ireland as a reporter for the canadian broadcasting. corporation in the mid—90s, . i felt like i needed a dictionary and a road map to understand i the shorthand terminology that's used to cover this story. sectarian, unionist... when you're not inside. the bubble of this story, as most of our audience isn't. it is so difficult to know . who's on what side and to understand the history. well, the history is actually easier than the present. i i remember turning up late for a story one day outside downing street. i think gerry adams was in there, and i said to a colleague of mine from northern ireland said, "what's the story?" he said, "well, in 1690..." so my my question is, _ is there so much disenchantment and the population is shifting in northern ireland... - yes. is this sowing the seeds...? what are the...? let me make it an open ended question. - what is the likelihood of this - leading to a push to reunification and the exodus of northern ireland? is that realistic or is that...? it's like the gordian knot. you can't untangle this, so you have to cut it. and you have exactly. when alexander cut the gordian knot, he used a sword. yes, he used a weapon. we've tried that in northern ireland for 30 years. there's 3,000 people dead and many, many others living with this. so it's not going to work. is that a scenario that comes out of this? i is this accelerating a scenario that some people many people - would like to see but many would not like to see? _ well, sinn fein will tell you that. but the opinion polls in northern ireland do not indicate that a majority of people would vote for unification, yet. but what can change is the whole architecture of powersharing in northern ireland with, well, throwing away the constitutional arrangement that is in place. and there is essentially being the deadlock. because asjeff was saying, the demographics is changing and you have increasing number of people who no longer identify either as unionists or nationalists. just before we move on, i should just say when i mentioned the gordian knot, i was not suggesting a return to violence. i was simply suggesting an island of ireland in the european union, a uk wholly out of the european union. that looks like the only simple solution. it's not a simple solution, though. that's the problem. it is... when you come to have a referendum in northern ireland and in the republic of ireland as well, you come into the whole thing of, well, are you prepared to pay for it? 0k, we can change the flat or we won't... it's going to cost a lot of money. it is, on steroids. it really is. but eunice is right, because if you look at the election results from the most recent stormont elections there last week, you'll see that the alliance party, which is the cross—community non—sectarian party, is growing fast. and within that, there's a lot of younger people who weren't around during the troubles that we were alluding to. let's end on a slightly happier note, in a sense, and that is the queen's speech. ijust wonder what you all made of... you all made of prince charles's audition piece for becoming head of state. how did he do? eunice? well, he performed like, maybe, a monarch in waiting. i only paid attention to one thing — so he was sat on a throne. but crucially, the crown was in another chair. it was not on his head. ithink... i thought it was actually... i was quite shocked. i didn't see it live. i watched it on my computer - and i was quite shocked because it looked like it was it was _ a queen's speech or a king's speech or whatever from a monarch in his last years. _ i mean, the man is 73, 74 years old, and there was a kind _ of tragic aura to it. this is a guy who's waited all his life for a job - that he didn't really choose to inherit. l and now he's finally kind of phasing in, sort of, i and he's pretty frail. and it was kind of hard - to listen to him because he wasn't very engaging. and i think, i mean, i there are many bigger issues in the planet - than talking about this, i have to just say. but ijust think that it's| very interesting to see. it is, and it is fascinating - because it feels like this man is going to be given. thisjob, and he'sjust too frail and not magnetic enough to carry it. - and i think that's what we saw. brian, what did you make of it? yes, it was. but to be perfectly honest, i go with whatjeffrey�*s saying, and that is that the opening lines of that speech were, "her majesty's government will take measures to ease the cost of living crisis. not a single jot or tittle of any of that was reflected in that in that speech at all. nothing. although apparently we're told that cutting lots of civil service jobs will help the cost of living crisis. that's what the government announced on friday. 90,000. yeah. it won't help them. i mean, i listened to jacob rees—mogg this morning and i was none the wiser, really, about how this is going to work. i think, just last thought on this, do you think that...? whether or not it was intended because the queen's back problems meant she she didn't feel she could do it, didn't feel she'd do it. so her son stepped in. he is the heir apparent. yes. do you think we're in that obviously in that process of transition, do you think there is a plan to help us to make that seamless, or is it still going to be such a terrific shot when this woman, who's been for most people all their lives on postage stamps, the coins everywhere and every major event suddenly isn't there? when it happens, i think it'll be a major cultural shock. it's the end of the second elizabethan era, in effect. and, you know, that covers everything from basically the end of the second world war, up to where we are now. and it's covered generations. and it will be a huge cultural shift as well. ten seconds. well, growing up in canada, . i can say that i think in canada it's just not talked about. i think everyone has enough respect i for elizabeth that no one will talk. about it when she's gone. i think it's an open question. jeffrey kofman, brian o'connor, eunice goes, thank you all very much. thank you. bye— bye. a real mix of weather types out there today. heavy showers, thunderstorms, essentially spells of warm sunshine. that is how it is looking through the rest of the day. some of us will catch those heavy downpours, but for other areas the warm spring sunshine will break through. high pressure still not far away, sitting towards the north east. a feature pushing northward bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning. fizzling out into the afternoon but quite a lot of cloud and a few showers in parts of central england, wales and northern england, south—west scotland and northern ireland. either side of that area of cloud and showers, sunshine and dry for much of the day for scotland. warm sunshine for southern england and wales where temperatures will reach 22 or 23 in the warmest spot. the caller under the cloud in the north, particularly fuller likes of newcastle with a breeze coming in from the north sea. into this evening and overnight, the area of showery rain clears away but more showers and storms coming from the south and could bring lightning to south and could bring lightning to south england and showers. warm and humid in the south. you may catch a glimpse of that full lunar eclipse tonight if you are in the north of scotland or perhaps the far south—west of england where we will have the clearest skies. but into monday, this rash of showers continues its slow progress across the likes of northern ireland and northern england, heading into central scotland in the afternoon where it will be persistent and there could be thunder and lightning mixed in as well. for the south, a return to sunnier, drier conditions with one or two showers bubbling up into the afternoon. an isolated thunderstorm in temperatures between 11 in aberdeen 22 in london. through to tuesday, no pressure will be approaching from the west, bumping into high pressure in the east. it will turn increasingly breezy for western fringes of britain and northern ireland, some outbreaks of rain here. central and eastern areas of staying right through the day and with a southerly wind could be the warmest day of the year so far, potentially 25 or 26 down towards the south—east. only 16 with the rain in belfast. through the middle of the week, still rain to get out of the week, still rain to get out of the week, still rain to get out of the way in wednesday. into thursday, looks like higher pressure will build it and we will have high pressure once again. showers in the forecast for wednesday for some of us, dry on thursday in temperatures through this week the warmest spot in the mid 20s. by by. this is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. finland has announced formally that the country will apply for nato membership, in response to russia's invasion of ukraine. we have reached today an important decision. a british military intelligence assessment suggests russia may have lost one third of its ground forces since the start of its invasion of ukraine. ten people have been killed and three injured in a mass shooting in buffalo — president biden says america must do everything in its power to end hate—filled domestic terrorism. lebanon holds parliamentary elections for the first time since an economic collapse sparked widespread anger against