Transcripts For BBCNEWS France Decides 20170423

Policeman was killed. Security has been stepped up today. The Interior Ministry put 50,000 extra Security Personnel at the Polling Stations up and down the country. It seems to have done the trick. Some healthy cu es have done the trick. Some healthy cues up and down the country. The turnout rate which has been predicted so far somewhere near where it was in 2012. Yet again, in the face of terrorism, the french people showing themselves to be hugely resilient. Which is a good thing because we can focus on the election, the candidates, the policies that matter to the french people. Not since 1958, in the founding of the Fifth Republic, have we seen Something Like what we are witnessing here tonight. Politics in france has been dominated by the two party system but it could well be this evening that the main two parties are eliminated in the first round. We see. Lets talk about the focus candidates we need to focus on. Emmanuel macron, 39. He would be the youngest president of modern times. Formerly the Economy Minister in the Socialist Party but spirit and a yearago in the Socialist Party but spirit and a year ago started own party, en marche . He was at the top of the polls on friday evening. We will show you that in a second. There he is voting earlier today. The other person we are focusing on, of course, Marine Le Pen of the Front National, the far right party, who has been voting today. It is a little like the rust belt of france where she was voting, a bit like the northern states for donald trump that did so well for him in the election. She gets a lot of support up election. She gets a lot of support up there, a regional councillor there. She was just behind up there, a regional councillor there. She wasjust behind Emmanuel Macron in the polls on friday evening at the end of the campaign. Running her close, quite extraordinary, because Francois Fillon has been dogged by allegations throughout the campaign. He has hung on. For recent days and weeks he has shown himself to be quite resilient in the polls. Here he is voting in paris today, the former Prime Minister still in with a very good shout indeed. He will run Marine Le Pen close. So the far left candidate also, Jean Luc Melenchon. Quite an extraordinary campaign, hayley has been around for a long time. Aligned with the Communist Party. Run his campaign, i think last week he was in dijon. Campaigning in six cities through his hologram. He has connected with young people through social media and got himself into a prominent position in the polls. Really, the sorry story, you would have to say, off the campaign has been the socialist candidate, benoit hamon, who has never ta ken. Socialist candidate, benoit hamon, who has never taken. Suffering under the legacy of Francois Hollande, many people perceive in france not to have done a good job over the last five years. Whether that is fairor last five years. Whether that is fair or not. He was in Single Digits in the polls on friday. He really would be considered to be the outsider in this race. It show you the final poll. This poll was published at 6 30pm on friday. Emmanuel macron out in front followed by Marine Le Pen, and also we have Francois Fillon and Jean Luc Melenchon. Back with us for another election is dominique, a very good friend of the bbc, french Political Scientist Amorsino Councillor of the think tank in paris. A warm welcome to you, thank you for being with us. Have you seen an election as unpredictable as this before . Never, iio. Unpredictable as this before . Never, no. And the global director of one of the main polling agencies here in france. You are going to help us through the first projections we will see this evening. Tell me a bit about those projections, where do they come from, how are they gathered . What is important to say, were not polling people at all. This is ballot counting. We have built a big sample of Polling Stations, and thats why its a bit more difficult today, because we have one hour less to do so, considering the Polling Stations are closing later. So we are here to assist to the counting of the ballot, and then we consolidate the result until the moment. Ballot, and then we consolidate the result untilthe moment. It ballot, and then we consolidate the result until the moment. It will be an evolving picture through the evening. Absolutely. There is also a possibility, we need to say this, that we will fine tune the result throughout the night. 0k. It will be so throughout the night. 0k. It will be so close, because as i was saying, we have not seen an election like this probably in the entirety of the Fifth Republic. No, this time its different, this time its different because the big classical figures of french politics that were Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande. French politics that were Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande. The former Prime Minister, are not present. They were simply eliminated or chose not to run, because their unpopularity was too high, in the case of Francois Hollande. This time its different because the two Classical Parties may simply not be present on the second round. This time its different because you have someone time its different because you have someone that seems to be coming from nowhere, very young, very attractive, Emmanuel Macron, who is trying to do what has never been achieved. In other words, trying to do what has never been achieved. In otherwords, to trying to do what has never been achieved. In other words, to win an election by saying i am neither right nor left, i select from the left programme what i think is good for france, and i select from the programme of the right what is good for france. We are looking to see if the trend we have seen in britain with brexit and in the United States with brexit and in the United States with donald trump, if it follows in the third biggest economy here in europe. Strictly speaking a Manual Macron is not an outsider . He is the incarnation of the french elite. National school of administration, banker. But hes also a complete outsider in the sense that he is so new in politics. Hes never run for office. I dont think it would be possible in another country. Hes a romantic, literary figure. His wife says its difficult to live with someone says its difficult to live with someone who takes himself forjoan of arc. But physically bernard part. When people look at the polls they will be, will be amazed Francois Fillon is still hanging around. Would it be possible Anywhere Else . How has he hung on . |j would it be possible Anywhere Else . How has he hung on . I think we are doing lots of core research, as well. In that research you cannot change people from the right, some of them. So they told us, 0k, first the others are doing the same, but also he is probably the only one, evenif also he is probably the only one, even if it is by default, is the only one. They are focused on his programme. So i think yes, by the way, has dropped a lot from the beginning. Because he was the fancied candidate. In a really good position right now. We will see tonight, but i think its complicated for him. A respected of the result, there will be millions of people in france who have voted forfar right of people in france who have voted for far right and of people in france who have voted forfar right and far of people in france who have voted for far right and far left. What does that say about the french system at the moment . Well, it says a lot about the french mood. It says a lot about the french mood. It says a lot about populist at large. In fa ct, a lot about populist at large. In fact, you can read the French Election in comparing them with the Brexit Result in Great Britain or with the election of donald trump in the United States. From that standpoint you have three keywords anger, angerat standpoint you have three keywords anger, anger at the elite, rejection of them a fear of the future and of the other and a strong element of nostalgia for a france that no longer exists. That was much less diverse. You were telling me that for all the policies that have been discussed in this campaign. You still believe europe with the central core issue . Absolutely. First it was a bit like the elephant in the room. It became more and more explicit afterwards. We have a usual dividing lines between right and left, of course, between also liberalism and elitism, but there is a third one, which was a much more important one for selection, which are openness, europe, globalism, Versus Closure and sovereignty and nationalism. I think it really made the difference, because every subject was related, were related to that. Immigration, security, even taxation and environment, everything was related to europe. I think this is pretty new. And of course all eyesin is pretty new. And of course all eyes in europe will be on this election. You have two eurosceptic candidates in the top four, Jean Luc Melenchon and Marine Le Pen. There a re lessons melenchon and Marine Le Pen. There are lessons in this notjust for france but those in brussels as well. Very much so. In fact, the french today are voting for europe or against europe. They are voting for democracy against democracy. This is the first time you could say this is the year of france, in electoral terms. This is not only the most uncertain election in the history of the Fifth Republic, but it is the most important one, coming ata it is the most important one, coming at a key moment. There will be two interpretations. Never two without three may mean brexit, trump and Marine Le Pen or numbered two without three can mean austria, The Netherlands and no france, A Beacon Of Hope in the fight against populism. Im bound to ask you, for our british viewers who are watching, which of these candidates would be better for watching, which of these candidates would be betterfor brexit watching, which of these candidates would be better for brexit and which would be better for brexit and which would be better for brexit and which would be worse for brexit . Would be better for brexit and which would be worse for brexit7m depends which brexit you mean chappell there is the debate itself. When we see theresa may, im not sure what she will go for, you know. Emmanuel macron threatening to ta ke know. Emmanuel macron threatening to takejobs know. Emmanuel macron threatening to take jobs but probably, maybe dominique will complete my answer, but probably the negotiations will be harderfor the but probably the negotiations will be harder for the uk but probably the negotiations will be Harderfor The Uk with Emmanuel Macron than it would be with Marine Le Pen, of course. I will get your thoughts on that in a second. 0ur Worldview is going to go away for a break. You are watching bbc news. 0k. Ok. We focused a bit of voters in france today. Good queueing up and down the country, and lots in london. A big constituency in london. A big constituency in london. I believe they were waiting over an london. I believe they were Waiting Overan Hourand a london. I believe they were waiting over an hour and a half in london where they were voting. Important constituency. Hugh schofield has been out and about today testing the mood, and he has been to the seven are spot in france where many people have been voting today. Lets take a look. You join me look. Youjoin me in look. You join me in the 17th zone of paris where the school has been turned into a Polling Station. Im not allowed to go and film inside the Polling Station but i have been inside personally and i can tell you that are long, long queues of people in that. It is very busy indeed, suggesting that the Terrorist Attack not far from here three days ago now has not had any impact on peoples willingness to turn out and vote. Across the country they are saying at lunchtime is 28 , 29 , which is pretty good, and broadly in line with past president ial elections when turnout does tend to be very high indeed. We go down here and we will see in a moment the long line of election posters for all 11 candidates. 11 candidates overall, but only four have got any serious chance of getting through to the second round. Marine le pen, Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron and Jean Luc Melenchon. 0ne Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron and Jean Luc Melenchon. One of the key factors in this election, i think, is going to be to see how much tactical voting goes on. Because there will be some people, but how many we dont know, who are tempted to vote for Marine Le Pen but will in fact vote for Francois Fillon, in order to keep out Emmanuel Macron. At the other end of the spectrum there will be people who want to vote forJean Luc Melenchon but will say no, we will vote for Emmanuel Macron in order to prevent Marine Le Pen and Francois Fillon going through. Its an points out that this election will hinge. We have our correspondence out and about at all of the headquarters of the main candidates this evening. Lets go around the country and visit some of them. First in the calais region. What kind of day have you had there, catty adler . Ican i can tell you its pretty full linear but pretty full outside as well. A lot of the Party Faithful queueing and shouting their support for Marine Le Pen outside the gate. Here there is a lot of tension, as there is across france today. Marine le pen has spoken in her campaign In The Name Of the people. She has talked about revolution and tried to do something revolutionary, by having her Party Outside paris, away from those she calls the elite. And in northern france where she made her political name. The problem for her and her supporters, along with her and her supporters, along with her being at the top of the polls, three others have been as well. It has been too close to call. There is a lot of nail biting going on in the room tonight. No body is quite sure. Polls will be closing very soon now and we will get an idea if she is in or out of the second round. What is it about their that mean she does well . Is it deindustrialisation, employment, poverty, a combination of all those things . It is all of that. If you look at the history of the National Front, its that. If you look at the history of the nationalfront, its known as the nationalfront, its known as the far right racist party. It was the party of Marine Le Pens father. When she took it over, she tried to make the party more attractive to mainstream voters. She was inspired to do that here. She was a local councillor here. She saw for herself the damage that was done in areas of france where Big Industrial towns we re france where Big Industrial towns were suddenly shut down and became depressed economically. Youth unemployment here runs at 30 . People feel forgotten and hidden away. That is why she has chosen to put her Election Party here, to say, i havent forgotten you. Shes very strong in her campaign, not only anti immigration but pro welfare state. Helping frances poorer families, writes for the workers. She says france for the french and all of the friend, not just the rich but the poorer as well. That rings very true here. She is very loved. This is absolutely a National Front stronghold, but the same cannot be said for the whole of the french republic, of course. I remember in 2012 when she took over the party from her father. It 2012 when she took over the party from herfather. It is 2012 when she took over the party from her father. It is a 2012 when she took over the party from herfather. It is a Different Party to the one that her father ran until that point. Some would say the dna of the party is still very much the same, but do you think in the eyes of some voters shes managed to change the image of the National Front . Absolutely. When you ask the Party Faithful, and im talking about the more mainstream Party Faithful, Young University students who are strong followers of the National Front, weve spoken to. They say, we are not racist, because if you have an identity card, whoever you are, christian, jewish or muslim, whatever the colour of yourskin, or muslim, whatever the colour of your skin, you or muslim, whatever the colour of yourskin, you are or muslim, whatever the colour of your skin, you are french. If you are french your party should be Front National. Thats how they fear. They decried a racist image the party still has. If you scratch underneath the surface, of course, there is the extremist element still there is the extremist element still there but there is more Mainstream Element as well this is it enough for Marine Le Pen to get through to the second round . For Marine Le Pen to get through to the second round . People here will be dreadfully disappointed if she doesnt. There was much talk in the last few weeks she could either make it to that top position, to president itself. If she doesnt get through to the second round there will be a lot of glum faces and a very depressed environment in here, thats for sure. Ican thats for sure. I can well imagine. Good to hear from you. We will hear from you again later. Now we can go to Emmanuel Macrons camp. I would imaginejames, a great Emmanuel Macrons camp. I would imagine james, a great sense of anticipation there . There is. There is a reasonably buoyant mood here. Every time a french tv switches to a shot here, lots of young people in the audience waving their flags. They are essentially a few minutes away from finding out whether or not this campaign was based on something more than promises and vagueness. Whether it will be promised and based on real actual votes. There is a significant hope here that Emmanuel Macron will move forward to the second round. What is it, do you think, about Emmanuel Macron that has captured the imagination of the french people . Hes given a fresh look at things. The irony, the paradox of his campaign is he really is an insider. He went to prestigious universities, he worked as an investment banker, worked and served as the Economy Minister, but hes reinvented himself as an antiestablishment outsider. I think thats whats ca ptu red outsider. I think thats whats captured the imagination of some french people. In some ways this is almost a Throwback Campaign to europe 20 years ago, when centre left candidate following clinton and tony blair used to run campaigns like this. That has caught the attention of some young people, some educated people and some people in frances cities, as well. 0k, thank you. We will come back to you when we get that first projection. Interesting what james was then, that the campaign that Emmanuel Macron has run, if you had to put yourfinger on it, its quite difficult, its a little bit vague, isnt it . Yes, but by the end of the day they will vote for the person, not for the programme. The anticipation of what the person can do, and a mood. In the 2017 campaign there was one candidate of hope, one candidate that projected optimism. Will he win . We will know. We will see. Mnu earle, it is probably the right guy at the right place at the right guy at the right place at the right moment. As the landscape is really polarised, the centre, the moderate camp, you can represent that. I think this is true for him and also. With the Francois Fillon allegations as well, everything is aligned for him. There is no real enthusiasm against Emmanuel Macron. He is also a candidate by default. This is probably the worst common denominator in a way. I think this is why he could be about to gather lots of people around him. But afterwards, there will be other elections. Yes. Has he also benefited from the fact hes managed to break away from Francois Hollande and the Socialist Party . I sort of remember when i was here we used to joke about the Socialist Party, the Prime Minister and Francois Hollande really wa nted Prime Minister and Francois Hollande really wanted a social Democrat Party and they were held by the hard left of their party. Is Emmanuel Macron really where Francois Hollande would like to be . Would have liked to be, could have been, ina way, have liked to be, could have been, in a way, if he had not been prisoner of the false promises he made during the 2012 campaign. He should have immediately said, im sorry, i didnt realise the state of the economy, we have to move towards reform much more rapidly than we should have done. And, in fact, that was a programme of Emmanuel Macron. He is more a combination of the social liberal and social democrat. Yes. We heard lots of people would be desperately disappointed if they dont get through to the second round, having been at the top of the poll since the beginning of last year. Absolutely. Ithink poll since the beginning of last year. Absolutely. I think it would also be a problem for the Front National, because there are two lines within the Front National, and robert blay the elitist line Marine Le Pen and others are wearing have difficulty, apart from the other line, more liberalist, more europe. Is it her all what they call the republican front that keeps her out and the far right out of power . Is it thejob her out and the far right out of power . Is it the job shes done that will be criticised if they dont get through . I think its her, personally. She hasnt run a convincing campaign . You dont think . I think shes done a bad campaign, hesitating to choose between two clear lines. Returning at the very end to what you called the dna of the National Front. The memory of the regime, and that, of course, if she loses tonight, will have played a great role. Well explain the glass ceiling. Lets pontificate for a second. Lets say that Francois Fillon miraculously gets into the second round after all hes been through and in a run off with Emmanuel Macron, a Manual Macron has the benefit of two pockets of left wing voters who are suddenly going to look for someone to vote for. Is he always going to beina to vote for. Is he always going to be in a stronger position than any of the other candidates . Absolutely. Of course, this will be, after tonight, another election. So this is probably premature, but we also asked the question of this second round. Each time, it didnt matter the consideration, Emmanuel Macron is. He wins, whether he faces, in your polling . Yes. He has to get through first, of course, we dont know this would be a new election because we dont know anything yet, this would be a new election, and there would be another campaign in two weeks. Yes. If Francois Fillon was to get through, at the expense of Marine Le Pen, what would he have to do to beat Emmanuel Macron . Of Marine Le Pen, what would he have to do to beat Emmanuel Macromm would be very difficult. It would look to the world as a victory of reason, moderation and democracy. The extreme left and extreme right would not be present on the second ballot. You anticipate that would be a good thing for france if it happened . For the image of france and reality of europe. And what if, the other reality, we might not know for another ten minutes, but what if it is the National Front and the ha rd it is the National Front and the hard left . What would that mean for france . A catastrophe, people would lead. Would leave. The bank would be ina lead. Would leave. The bank would be in a difficult position. The market would fall tomorrow. That is the horror scenario, which is not completely impossible to anticipate, but hopefully very unlikely. Also for europe. And also for europe, because you would have two eurosceptic parties there. Lets talk aboutJean Luc Melenchon. An extraordinary character. I do smile when i see him on the campaign trail. He is there in his jacket, an admirer of hugo chavez, aligned with the communists, how is he up there at the top of the polls . Where is he pulling his supporters from . He is the most popular in our surveys, compared to the other candidates. There is nothing to say. He is popular, backed by the communists, of course, but popular also, you know, with the socialists. I think too close to him. He is taken benoit hamon . The main socialist candidate . He has totally stolen the voters of nor hamon. I think it explains his hype now. Its very interesting, was by far the best candidate. He is a combination of the spirit of 68, lets rock the boat completely, and the language of the Communist Party in the 1940s and 19505. The Communist Party in the 1940s and 1950s. This is this combination of total anachronism and totally revolutionary spur. Another man that fits the moment . It was the best also during the debates, the debates, the meetings. He is a great actor. Years and a very good turn of phrase. There were a couple of moments in the debate where he skewered his opponents, didnt he . Doing this. Lets stop very briefly about mr hollande. A disappointing campaign for him. Maybe not entirely his own fault. No, but largely his own fault. Do you think so . He was the candidate of the rejection of hollande, and he we nt of the rejection of hollande, and he went quite far to the left, to the risk, that happened, of dividing the party. The moderate went to a Emmanuel Macron and the left went to Jean Luc Melenchon. He had no space, but he created that for him. His strategy was suicidal. |j but he created that for him. His strategy was suicidal. I think he has won the primaries for the same reason he will lose the president ial election. Well, it is fascinating. You are both going to stay with us, i hope, and see what we get from the projections. We get our first projections. We get our first projections in a little over a minutes time. Of course, they are about to close all the Polling Stations around the country. The first count will begin. It may be that we dont get a final result for several hours. We may get a front runner and that we may get two or three candidates following up close behind. It may be so close, if you look at the polling you could throw a tea towel over them. It might be so close we dont know who is going through to the second round, be two or three hours. That is the situation. Its fascinating. Its going to be an exciting night for everybody who is watching. We are going to go straight through to the new hour. You are watching bbc news and we are in paris. We are in a beautiful setting, with the Arc De Triomphe lit up behind us by the late evening sunshine. The Champs Elysees is full of people, which tells a bit about the resilience of the french people. They have been going out to polls. Lets have a little look. Iamjust i am just looking at french television. We are looking at the top of the protection. 23 for Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen with Francois Fillon and Jean Luc Melenchon at 19 . This is a projection, not a final result. 0nly A Projection from the early votes that have been counted. This is the same. You have Emmanuel Macron on 23 , and Marine Le Pen, as well. So net and neck. As the ball still does, Francois Fillon and Jean Luc Melenchon turning up in third and fourth. Neck and neck as well. This is not a final result, it is a projection from the early votes that are counted. Yes, but this is the information we think we can release right now. We will do some fine tuning throughout the evening, but this is the result. Just looking at pictures from the Marine Le Pen camp. The flags waving. They think they are going through to the second round. What does that mean for french politics . It is a double earthquake. She is in the second round, plus this is the elimination of the classical Political Forces in france. This has never happened before in history. The 2party system is over. It is the end of the Fifth Republic as we knew it. It will not be the Sixth Republic. The man who wanted to create the Sixth Republic probably wont qualify. As the results are coming, it is fair to say that the next president of france will probably be Emmanuel Macron, because all of the projections are that he would win, all going in his direction. Lets go to the Paddock Calais region in the north. I think people there would be quite optimistic . Thats right. It is pretty chaotic, pretty noisy. They are celebrating as though it has been confirmed that Marine Le Pen, their candidate, has won as famous victory. We are working with projections from french tv year. Those projections are showing her a little by heinz Emmanuel Macron. The worry for the Front National is that it is very hard for them to win tra nsfers it is very hard for them to win transfers from people who voted from other mainstream parties in the first round. That is for the future. They are chanting we are going to win. They are waiting for their heroine. They believe that this is an enormous political achievement for the National Front, an enormous political achievement for the nationalfront, something of another breakthrough moment for that party. That is how it looks from here. The second time that they have got through to the second round since 2002 cents jean marie got through to the second round since 2002 Centsjean Marie Le Pen took them into the second rounds. For her, is this vindication of the way she has taken the party and moulded it in her image . Yes, National Front supporters. She has done a lot to make the party feel a little closer to the centre, not very much but a little. She would have done something in the eyes of Political Scientists to detoxify the party. The problem for Marine Le Pen is that she would say france has changed, political critics would say that she has changed. That mountain to climb is obvious from what happened to her father in the second round of that election when the Front National made it three in the past. He got less than 20 of the second round vote as there was an enormous rallying of voters from the left and right to keep out the National Front. That is their problem. That is how the french mainstream will play the second round if it is proved to be the case, as we believe, the 20th macro will make it. The pollution on the other side will be to get behind the other side will be to get behind the other candidate to keep her out. That is a problem that none really of the other first round candidates would have faced. The fascination in the weeks to come is what she tries to do about it. That is the only path to winning and that is a very difficult one. Kevan, stay with us. We are going to go to James Reynolds who is at the Emmanuel Macron hq. I imagine they are pleased to see that they are at least through to the second round, if not eating Marine Le Pen. I am checking to see if the roof is still on here because there was an almighty cheer five minutes ago when the first projections came up. Everybody started waving their flags. A tremendous amount of noise. The first projection is exactly what they wanted. They wanted to get through to the second round. They believe that Emmanuel Macron will be able to get the votes of the other candidates who may have been knocked out, particularly the left wing candidates. In a straight fight between Emmanuel Macron and le pen, he might get enough votes to become the president of france. This is a first projection, but the singing of the supporters behind me gives you an indication of the kind of mood there is here tonight. As kevin was saying, they will feel very confident because according to the polling, he wins in the second round quite convincingly. Yes, all the polls have shown in recent months that a matchup between these two candidates, Emmanuel Macron and le pen would have Emmanuel Macron winning convincingly. This is the start that they wanted. Bearing in mind that Emmanuel Macron has never won an elected office before. He served two years as an Economy Minister. He started his own party and now he stands on the verge of getting through to the second round of the president ial election and possibly even winning the vote. The french normally collect highly experienced president s. It would be a first Emmanuel Macron gets through. Thank you. Lets go to the Francois Fillon hq. I imagine the mood is very different there. Yes, i clear sense of disappointment here when the results, the first projections, were announced. 0nly when the results, the first projections, were announced. Only a few supporters were here and it is a very sober mood all Evening Waiting for the first results to come out. Remember, Francois Fillon got off to a great start in this campaign. A few months ago he was the favourite in this president ial race, then his campaign was hit by allegations of corruption. That is when it all went wrong. The republican candidate slipped in the polls and that is when Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen took the lead. He wasnt able to come back. There was a hope that he would be able to pull it off, that he would be able to convince undecided voters on voting day that they would be able to cast their ballots for the republican candidate. It hasnt been this way. I clear sense of disappointment here. They will be looking ahead to the parliamentary elections, were obviously the big question now will be if Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen is confirmed in the run off, is how will they govern. Thomas, for the moment, thank you very much. Hugh schofield has joined the moment, thank you very much. Hugh schofield hasjoined us on the moment, thank you very much. Hugh schofield has joined us on the balcony. You have been watching this for months. Are you surprised . Not surprised. The pollsters predict this. The polls predicted also that Francois Fillon had not collapsed. I know pollsters have had an awful time of it in the last year, but they were broadly right and they we re they were broadly right and they were consistent. I am not that surprised. What is surprisingly in the Bigger Picture is what it means. The whole Political Landscape has been torn out. We have neither a socialist or a republican, representatives of the main blocs in french politics that have structured politics for 60 years, in the final. The next president will not be from one of these two big blocks. We have this independent character, Emmanuel Macron, he is so likely to be the next president. In august when he launched his bid he was asked could be the next president , he said, well, it could be the next president. It did feel like a long shot. I did say he could be, not that it couldnt. The stars have aligned for him they have. The system of the primaries here, what did was forced both parties into their extreme camps. 0n the right you saw people for Francois Fillon he positioned himself closer to the Front National on identity and hard line on the economy. 0n the left you saw the same thing again with benoit hamon who was on the left of the party. This hard for Emmanuel Macron to stroll down. We can go back to the Emmanuel Macron hq. What is your reaction to the projection that we have had . Can you hear us . Can you hear us . Give us your reaction to the projection you have seen reaction to the projection you have seen tonight. I feel it is a new history starting for french politics. It is huge. 0ne history starting for french politics. It is huge. One year ago en marche was not even here and is it is new pages for french politics. It isa it is new pages for french politics. It is a very important day. We feel great responsibility. We have explained that we want to gather progressives together, and that is what we will do. We are very happy because we are first, in front of Marine Le Pen, and it is an important thing for democracy, as well. What kind of france will it be under Emmanuel Macron if he becomes the president . Can you repeat the question . What kind of france would be under Emmanuel Macron . Question . What kind of france would be under Emmanuel Macromm question . What kind of france would be under Emmanuel Macron . It will be a france, confident about itself. An inclusive france. A chance for everybody. It will be an open france. I am very excited. It is a new leader, and new vision, new ideas, new people around him. It is an important day today, that is what we feel. A few months ago everybody told us it was an impossible bet and look at us tonight it is huge and we feel the responsibility of that. So what will the priority be overdid next two weeks . This is only the first round, it goes into a run off with Marine Le Pen a week on sunday. What will the priorities be . The priority will be to explain our values, gather progressives together. We always say is what matters is value and to agree on the project. We are an Movement Based on that. We will gather around a france that. We will gather around a france thatis that. We will gather around a france that is not closed, not afraid. That will be the next big focus for us in the next two weeks. I am confident, i believe in my country. What they did tonight is insane. Its awesome 0k, well done to you. Thank you very much. I am just seeing the results here for benoit hamon. 7 . Is that the end of the Socialist Party . Does it need to rebuild . Will it come back Something Else . It is the end. It isa back Something Else . It is the end. It is a terrible blow to the party. It is a terrible blow to the party. It will explode within the next two weeks. It will have to be rebuilt on totally new basis, with probably totally new basis, with probably totally new basis, with probably totally new people. Yes, we see the end of the Socialist Party as we have known it. Is this the legacy of Francois Hollande, really . It is interesting, the Socialist Party has a lwa ys interesting, the Socialist Party has always prided itself of being a party of ideas. 0n the right, those parties are links to individuals. Going back to the beginnings of the socialist movement. It is all the more painful. Francois hollandes presidency can only be regarded as a failure as he failed to make the grade for running again. He disqualified himself. The level of dissatisfaction with him was so high that he could not keep it together. The thing that a lot of people say about Francois Hollande is that he is very good at synthesising, like a sticking plaster over this party for a long time, but now that sticking plaster has flown away and these constituent elements can be seen. There have always been warring elements in the Socialist Party but there is nothing to keep them together. Nobody feels any great loyalty a ny together. Nobody feels any great loyalty any more. In the past that was loyalty, the same way in britain and he would have loyalty to the labour party, that mattered, it meant something. Now we are going to of teachers and nurses. Not even nurses. There is nothing there. Looking at the pictures from the Emmanuel Macron camp when they when they learned they were top of the pole this evening, look at this. They are waiting for their man. A lot of people will say, is this not really Francois Hollandes man . At former adviser to him, former economic ministers to him. His thinking was in line with the president. It is not beyond the realms to think that Francois Hollande would take you couldnt run asa hollande would take you couldnt run as a socialist but mean deformed your own party. Have they been very clever in what they have done . You could say it is a conspiracy theory. There was a division of labour between the father and the son. But it is not that. To a large extent what happens to the Socialist Party in france cant be compared to the labour party in Great Britain. And the emergence of Emmanuel Macron is for the first time, probably since 1974 and the wind then, a victory of the centre. It is remarkable that In This Moment of euroscepticism, pessimism, In This Moment of populism, the french are about to elect a man with just the opposite of that, who incarnates hope, who will fight on the idea of europe and he is passionately moderate at a time when people go towards the extreme. In the way, the french seem to have been making the exact opposite choice of The Americans are few months ago. Here is a very cultivated man, a man who reads, a man who likes to quote literary figures. 0ur man he is young and whose passion is moderation and he tries not to object, not to ostracise others. Will he succeed . That is another story. We were equally confident about Hillary Clinton, then we just didnt see what was coming. The Populist Anger that there was in the country. There is no question she will win. We have polls that are showing that the electorate of Francois Fillon will divide itself into three categories. 30 will go for Emmanuel Macron, 30 will go for le pen, 30 may have steam. The majority of the left will go for Emmanuel Macron. Some will abstain. Every other candidate will call for Emmanuel Macron, i imagine. There is still this idea of the republican vote and even though everything has changed, people still identified themselves up to a point of whether or not they cant countenance the idea of the National Front. People feel viscerally about it. She didnt do that well. She will be good for 5 better than her father did in 2002. I think somewhere, and this is the difference between 2002 and 2015, we may see at the end of the second ballot at the results that the National Front has doubled its representation. The father did a little more than 20, they might get 40. These are the pictures when they got news of the result for Marine Le Pen. When you look at the polls, the final result from round one in 2012, she was on 16 . Now she is on 23 . Evenif she was on 16 . Now she is on 23 . Even if she loses this time, she might say that there is a pattern here and there is huge responsibility on the shoulders, if he becomes president , huge responsibility on the shoulders of Emmanuel Macron or in five years time it could well be Marine Le Pen. The french are putting in 2017 like The Americans did in 2008. They voted for hope. If Emmanuel Macron does not succeed, in five years The Americans will vote like the french will vote like The Americans did in 2016. Now we know roughly what the ship is going to be, but whatever was going to happen in this election there was going to be change. Something was going to be different. I know the right likes to betray Emmanuel Macron as the candidate of continuity, but he is not. There will be an marriage of liberal social ideas of what you might call modern, or consistent with other countriess appeal, and it would be easy. There have always been vested interest against that. These are the latest projections. Based on a partial count showed that Emmanuel Macron is on 24 , Marine Le Pen on 21. 8 , so both qualifying for the second round. Again, this is an early projections, still a lot of votes to kind. We had some reaction from benoit hamon, the first candidate to come out. He said i feel to avoid the disaster that had been announced months ago. He is encouraging everyone to fight as ha rd encouraging everyone to fight as hard as they can to fight the extreme right and to fight for Emmanuel Macron. He is urging his supporters to go over and support the centrist Emmanuel Macron. Part two expert here, kevin, Give Le Pen No Chance in the second round. What do they say their . The political arithmetic is against her, everyone knows that. There will be a tendency of the mainstream voters of left and right to rally against Marine Le Pen and the National Front, to rally against the extreme right. The interesting question for the next two weeks is whether she has some kind of strategy to deal with that. She knows that underlying reality in french politics as well as anybody else. Clearly, all the people you speak to hear shed those doubts about what will happen in the second round, but the doubts are for the days and weeks to come. Tonight here it is about celebrating. They believe this is a breakthrough moment for Marine Le Pen. They are aware what happened the last time the National Front got through to the National Front got through to the second round, it lost by miles, got less than 20 in the second round. They dont think that will happen again. They think she is a more popular second round candidate than her father, so more popular second round candidate than herfather, so they more popular second round candidate than her father, so they have faith in her. The reality remains. She will have to think of something pretty special if she is not to suffer the same second round fate as her father did suffer the same second round fate as herfather did all suffer the same second round fate as her father did all those years ago. That is what makes french politics fascinating and that is what will make the next two weeks here fascinating. Kevan, we will be back with you through the evening. If you arejust with you through the evening. If you are just joining with you through the evening. If You Arejustjoining us, to remind you, we have had the initial projections in the first round of the French Election and it is Emmanuel Macron he appears to be out in front. 24 of the vote, head of Marine Le Pen on 21 of the vote. That would mean that the two of them go through to the second round of week on sunday. Well bring you plenty more reaction from here in paris. Youre watching bbc news. Colder weather on the way. Whether you like it or not, even the risk of snow in one or two places. In the short term, the weather is quiet, relatively mild, but by the time we get to monday and tuesday, some of us could see this in our gardens, wintry showers. Most of us will not get snow, we just feel the chill, and it will be chilly. The Satellite Picture shows lots of clear weather, scattered Fairweather Cloud across central and southern areas. Most of the uk will stay dry for the rest of the day. Beautiful end to the day, lovely sunset, the wind is light. We go to the north, the cloud starting to increase across northern ireland, spots of rain getting into western and northern scotland. Look at the Temperature Drop in lerwick. This is a sign of the colder air coming in, and it will be really windy. The cold front is the leading edge of that much colder arctic air that will be setting in, and that means some snow across the scottish hills tonight. To the south, it will still be relatively mild. Cloud, maybe a few spots of rain. A lot colder in scotland. The cold front moves fairly slowly. To the south, a bit of cloud and sunshine, especially in the south. We might need our brollies for a time. To the north, the much brighter weather. A big temperature contrast. That is snow coming through. Wintry showers down to low levels across the north of scotland. Through the course of monday night into tuesday, the cold air reaches southern areas. Wintry showers possible almost anywhere. Especially these western and eastern areas. The best weather across the south. In the shade, it will feel particularly chilly as we go through tuesday and wednesday. On thursday, things warm upjust a little. Hello, a warm welcome, welcome back to our Special Results Programme from paris. I do have a 5 star setting around me. Looking at the sun setting and behind me the sun is lighting up the Champs Elysees and the Arc De Triomphe. It is a lovely setting. Its been a fascinating evening so far. Weve had the early projections in this election. We know Emmanuel Macron is out in front, Marine Le Pen not far behind. They look to be, and a moment, the two candidates going through to the second round. Lets get some analysis of that. Tell us the latest projections you have at the moment . The latest estimate puts Emmanuel Macron a little ahead of Marine Le Pen. 23 of the voters versus 22 of the voters, so it is close. Is it fair to say there are still a vast amount of votes to be counted, early days . Yes, absolutely. But i think it will be stable in one hour, but it wont change anything on the two finalists. I was standing a thursday evening, that dreadful event on the Champs Elysees, we were talking about if it would affect the turnout. What are the early projections for turnout tell us . For today . Yes. We were exactly at the same level that it happened tonight. You projected. It was a turnout at 78 . So you can hold your head high we are 78 . So you can hold your head high we a re really 78 . So you can hold your head high we are really happy. Well done you, a job well done. And of course weve improve the methodology improved it works. 22 Abstention Rate, that doesnt mean that everybody has voted for the candidates among those that have voted . Some have voted blank, they are allowed to do that . Im not sure for this first round, but im sure for the second one there will be lots of white ballots. So even though we have 78 of people voting, they are not necessarily voting, they are not necessarily voting for candidates . Yes, in that case, yes, absolutely. Lots of people are asking for the recognition of white ballots, but they are not counted. Thats the reason i asked, its fascinating. 11 candidates, some people say they dont see anyone they want to vote for. They will look at that when the votes are finally counted. It might be that in the second round there are fewer people that are going to vote than in the first round. Absolutely. Some people will say i dont recognise myself in any of the candidates and i abstain. But so far there are three winners tonight. First the pollsters, they were right. Thank you. Everyone said you could see in Great Britain or the United States, there would be a new method of counting. No, classical polling did it. They were right in 2012 as well. Is there something about the way french polls are conducted that is different to britain or america . I think we really improved the methodology. We didnt change it radically, but we also added some social media, some more columns, triangulation to better analyse the results and to be ina better analyse the results and to be in a better position. So i think, yes, it works. Some early reactions to give our viewers. The Interior Minister has been speaking tonight. The presence of the far right candidate in elections 15 years after the shock of april 2002 marks after the shock of april 2002 marks a clear and strong position of all of the republic. Its the reason i call everyone to vote for Emmanuel Macron. Im just wondering, if it helps a Manual Macron that suddenly all the prominent socialist suddenly come out and say, we are going to vote for Emmanuel Macron and so should use. If they were not to vote for him, that would be a great impediment for Emmanuel Macron. The left, in its great Majority Vote for macron and the rights will be divided. And by the end, if we look at the figures, then i say the mathematics look very strongly for macron. Everybody thought that Marine Le Pen would not only come to the second round, but would come first in the first ballot. And it seems not to be the case. |j first in the first ballot. And it seems not to be the case. I wasjust making the point to our guests here, if all the socialists come out and a back a Manual Macron, i would assume Marine Le Pen is going to say, there you are, this is the Continuity Candidate . I think she will. She will also argue this is a legitimate choice for french people, to vote for her party, so she will argue there is no need for a kind of great Mainstream Rally to the centre to defeat her. The big question is, has she succeeded in detoxifying this party to the point where other conservatives feel comfortable voting for or mainstream conservatives will feel they also have tojoin conservatives will feel they also have to join that great rally to the centre and vote for Emmanuel Macron. Because, of course, he would look like a candidate of the left unless he can also attract some right wing votes. The tactics of french politics are pretty clear. In the second round they are both going to have two tack to the centre and argued there are reasons why people should be prepared to support them. That, as weve said, is a much harder argument Marine Le Pen make them Emmanuel Macron, but her supporters hope she is a more attractive candidate personally than her father ever was. They hope that france has changed enough to change the rules of the political arithmetic. Most of us who Follow French Politics would rather doubt that, but that is where her pathway to the second round lies. Arguing that she is not the candidate her father was. The National Front is not the party it was in the old days, and that also france finds itself in changed circumstances, to which she is the answer. I dont necessarily believe french voters are going to buy those arguments, but do expect to hear them, maybe starting tonight when she appears on this podium just behind me, and we are expecting her at any moment. This podium just behind me, and we are expecting her at any momentlj remember are expecting her at any moment. remember being there a few years ago ina sugar remember being there a few years ago in a Sugar Beet Factory at close down, the old industry had gone and it had disappeared to other parts of europe. There was an anti europe feeling. I wonder what Marine Le Pens progression into the second round says about the division in france, between urban france and what they call nonurban france. When we come from outside we tend to talk about National Front in terms of its policy on immigration, in terms of its attitudes toward islam, for example. All of that is valid and interesting. But i was in another pa rt interesting. But i was in another part of provincial france last week, nannes, and a journalist told me he thought there was more the correlation between support for the National Front and a sense that you belong to a kind of forgotten france. Yes, a place where industry has closed down, a place where state services arent as good as they used to be. The National Front and Marine Le Pen in particular will be positioning themselves as the champions of those parts of france which dont feel prosperous, which arent made prosperous by contact with europe. Weve seen industry collapsing, coal mining has collapsed here in the old north. So there are more votes out there that she will regard as possible votes for her. As i say, the whole question is, to what extent she has changed the image of this party in the minds of french voters. Having a french voters been encouraged to seek the National Front as being different than it used to be in the old days, when jean marie different than it used to be in the old days, Whenjean Marie Le Pen was given to talking about the holocaust and his attitudes on race and immigration werejust and his attitudes on race and immigration were just too strong for ordinary mainstream french voters. Very, very interesting question which also gives you that soap opera quality to french politics. As the daughter succeeded in changing the party that her father created . Kevin, we will come back to you shortly. I know Marine Le Pen is going to speak in about ten minutes time. We will go straight back to that when she does. Iam reading here that when she does. I am reading here that if he is elected as president , Emmanuel Macron would be the youngest resident ever in the republic, younger than Louis Napoleon bonaparte, is that right . It depends whether you speak of bonaparte the First Council napoleon the emperor of france. Younger than napoleon but older than bonaparte. When i was here used to school me about what people thought about their president. You said to me they like someone president. You said to me they like someone who is conservative and reserved, they see it as the figurehead of the state and it is the Prime Minister who should be the fall guy. You always used to say to me, look at Francois Fillon, he is more statesman like than Nicolas Sarkozy and that is why they dont like Nicolas Sarkozy. What are they going to make of a 39 year old sitting in that position . There an old tradition in france scored bonaparte is. The tradition to go for the provincial man in exceptional circumstances. I think macron sees himself, inhibited by this vision of himself as being the saviour of france. He is saving france from popular tourism populism, saving europe from the ghost of populism. Will it work . The task is enormous, but that is, i think, his vision. Maybe in the exercise of power he may be more authoritarian than people would like him to be. Im always confused by the french. They always say, we want change. All these 11 candidates have one thing in common, the system is broken. But then when a Prime Minister president comes along and says, we are going to change it, out they come to the barricades and they stop it, as they did with hollande. Youve raised an inquest in interesting question, the Prime Minister question. I think now we see that there will probably be more than 70 of people that need to reconsider their vote, of course, for the second round. But macron is ina good for the second round. But macron is in a good position, of course. But then, the most important election now will be the legislative one in june. Because he doesnt have a majority. So who will be chosen for having the role of Prime Minister . I think you will need to choose someone think you will need to choose someone that also balances his qualities, his traits, and also his weaknesses. How is that going to work . It is a fundamental issue that you raise. Is macron feeling Strong Enough tonight . Tehran alone . Tehran alone . 0r enough tonight . Tehran alone . Tehran alone . Or will he announces ticket for Prime Minister in the coming days . Sorry, we are going to break away because Francois Fillon is speaking. Lets tune into that. Translation citizens, in spite of all my effort, in spite of my determination, i havent managed to convince you. The obstacle that was thrown in my road were too numerous and too painful. The truth of that election will be written down, but for the moment i take on board my responsibility, and that defeat is mine. Its for me and only for me to bear the weight of that failure. To all of those who voted for me, or those who have been supporting me forfour those who have been supporting me for four years, with courage, those who have been supporting me forfour years, with courage, all i can address is a message of friendship and sorrow. I will never forget them, and at the time of the legislative election they will be able to have the voice of the right and the centre. Do not disappear, remain united. Your strength is going to be important and france need it. Meanwhile we have to choose, we have to choose what is preferable for our country. I do not do that with a light heart, but abstention isnt something that belongs to me, particularly when there is an Extremist Party ready to pounce on power. The National Front, created byjean marie le pen, its history is well known. Violent, intolerant, its economic and Social Policy would lead our country to failure and also there would be the european chaos with abandoning the euro. So extremism, do trust me, can only produce misfortune and division for france. So there is no other choice but to fight and vote against the extreme right, and therefore i will vote for Emmanuel Macron. I feel that it vote for Emmanuel Macron. I feel thatitis vote for Emmanuel Macron. I feel that it is my duty to tell you that very honestly, and its for your conscience now to think about what is the best for your country, but also for your children. My dream for our children, that they should be able to live in a country where they are proud of themselves, where they are proud of themselves, where they are not faced with decline, where the promises of our motto is something that becomes the truth. That was my ambition, that was my project, that was my dream. And that dream is something that should be within you. It is for you to find and unite to make it a reality. The future of france, first and foremost, is in your hands. I trust you. I will tell you that i am very proud to be one of you, to be a french person, a french man who loves his country and is going to go on trusting his country. Long live france and long live the republic. Applause so, that was Francois Fillon, the former Prime Minister conceding defeat, even though at the moment votes are still being counted. The projections we are showing you, some of them differ. It depends which Polling Agency they come from but broadly the same, Emmanuel Macron just narrowly ahead of Marine Le Pen, who is in second place and Francois Fillon, as youvejust think in third place, now conceding defeat. 0ne think in third place, now conceding defeat. One by one these candidates are urging their supporters to fall behind Emmanuel Macron. That is what Francois Fillon was saying. It is your responsibility, he said. He also, as he was speaking, accepted responsibility for his defeat. There will be a lot of soul searching within the Republican Party about what happened here. Back injanuary he was very much the favourite and it was the allegations he was facing that undermined his campaign, and a lot of people in his party felt he should have stood aside. Lets go to the Manual Macron camp. James reynolds watching what i imagine isa James Reynolds watching what i imagine is a party . Emmanuel macron camp. It is fascinating, they we re macron camp. It is fascinating, they were watching the Francois Fillon concession speech behind me. He talked about abstention, they looked nervous, then he said he would vote for temps Emmanuel Macron. Its astonishing how quickly those endorsements are coming in. It seems going against Marine Le Pen is an advantage because he hoovers up quickly the votes for the other candidates. There is believe he is strong favourite to win the second round of the election. Bear in mind it was a risk for him to pitch his campaign in the Centre Ground, but it turns out he has done much better than many people expected. Have we heard anything from Emmanuel Macron so far . When is he going to speak . think theres been one line that hes given to the news agency. We do expect him to come to the podium here and speak at some point. Events are moving so quickly, endorsements and concessions are coming so quickly he might not have to wait much longer. There will be huge cheers for him. We have seen people embracing, people saying their strategy has been vindicated, that decision to stand for the Centre Ground, which in europe in recent yea rs seems ground, which in europe in recent years seems to have been evaporating, appears to have paid off. Sometimes they say about the Centre Ground, theres nothing in the middle except dead armadillos. Macron might be proving a counter to that point, that it is possible to win an election in europe from the Centre Ground. Very interesting point. When he gets the endorsement of the Socialist Party, will he welcomes that, do you think . 0r party, will he welcomes that, do you think . Or does it put him in a sticky position . We havejust think . Or does it put him in a sticky position . We have just seen looking at those figures how unpopular benoit hamon is. Im wondering if it really helps if the socialists come across to support him . I think it probably does, because the socialists have approached him, he hasnt had to approach the socialists. That potentially means he doesnt have to change his programme. If he had to go back for support and possibly changes programme, look at rethinking some of his social policies, that might have affected him. What has happened to my, because he is having to face Marine Le Pen, the others are coming to him. The Centre Ground for him appears to be holding. He might pick up appears to be holding. He might pick up the votes without having sacrifice much of his programme. 0k, sacrifice much of his programme. Ok, for sacrifice much of his programme. 0k, forthe sacrifice much of his programme. Ok, for the moment, thank you. We will come back to you when a Manual Macron appears. We are joined by human rights and Civil Liberties activist. Marine le pen into the second round. There will be many people, particularly in the suburbs of paris and the cities around the country who will be disappointed to see her in the second round. 11. 2 Million People have voted for her, which is quite worrisome. History will remember all the candidates didnt barter to be first but second behind Marine Le Pen. That is worrying that people gave in. Maybe she didnt win because she was better but people gave up and didnt wa nt to better but people gave up and didnt want to fight. Right now the choice is between a fascist party and in Manual Macron. Emmanuel macron. He tried to be appeasing. There is no point in saying he is evil, if he implements a liberal agenda. Some people warned it would be very tense in the suburbs this evening if she got through to the second round, we will have to watch that. A lot of people when they were interviewed in the campaign said, we dont have an interest in this election. Might they have a greater interest in it because the far right is in the second round . Because the far right is in the second round . Far right i did have beenin second round . Far right i did have been in powerfor many years, actually under Francois Hollande many far right ideas were implemented. The last five years especially, when it comes to security and identity politics. People are talking and saying, the far right might be an extreme party, but the right as well as the left agree on many issues. Its more about whats going to come after. First the election and then the parliamentary election. Emmanuel macron, its not clear if he will have a parliamentary majority to run the country. The second point is we have had Left Wing Populism versus right wing populism. This might be a good joke forJean Luc Melenchon who might be in a position of strength to destroy the Socialist Party. Dominique, is that a worry for you, how the suburbs will react to this . Of course. It is an essential issue. But i would say that Emmanuel Macron, contrary to the Prime Minister in The Netherlands, never we nt minister in The Netherlands, never went to the right. He was always the candidate of moderation. And i think he can have some kind of majority. Maybe not the traditional majority. Maybe not the traditional majority. Maybe it will be a kind of coalition, in the style more of germany than in france. You think it was in favour Francois Fillon . After event here on thursday he turned bit toward security. The mistake for Francois Fillon was not to resign after the beginning of the scandal, because it was really the moment for the republicans to win. If they had had another candidate, the result might have been completely different. So this was the real mistake of Francois Fillon, but he tried desperately to win. He used some kind of arguments that were not dignified. He will have to come in a way, bear the dignified. He will have to come in a way, bearthe responsibility dignified. He will have to come in a way, bear the responsibility for that in the eyes of history. In 2012 the migrant population and the inner cities in france had a candidate in Francois Hollande who was promising a lot of things. It was all about jobs, reducing unemployment below 10 , it never happened. Do theyjust feel there is a string as far back as you can see of broken promises here in france. Ijust came back from a conference last night in a small suburb. The keyword, the key idea is for once the Socialist Party had a candidate that stood against racism. He got boycotted by the Socialist Party and they all fled to Emmanuel Macron. Benoit hamon . Yes. People of my generation on the one before swore to never again vote for the Socialist Party. I think his mistake was running for the Socialist Party rather than as an independent. The ratings for 5 , if not less than that. Now it might be an opportunity for people actually get more involved into politics, not by joining get more involved into politics, not byjoining the parties but by becoming more organised and pushing for change for the benefit of the common citizen. Coming back to the divisions. The events we saw on thursday night, truly dreadful. I was asking people who came and we interviewed people who had. Terrorist experts, if part of the problem in fighting terrorism is there is no information coming . The division between urban farms and the division between urban farms and the division with the police as well is such that they dont get the intelligence they need . Absolutely false. All the organisations have been working with the police. Many activists work with the police and in return get put under house arrest on mere suspicion. There is no sharon of information between agencies. We havent defined what is Radicalisation Question my nobody knows. We know it has to do with terrorism but nothing more than terrorism but Nething More The . , the difficulty with this is that. The difficulty with this is even our Domestic Intelligence has been calling on the french government since 2013 14, to actually change its strategy and to act, to work with the communities instead of singling them out. That was not done. There was this One Upmanship on security. The fact we focused on changing the constitution to strip people of their citizenship shows terrorism is not french. Im sorry, if a person is born and raised in france and commitan act is born and raised in france and commit an Act Of Terror in france, its a french problem. Im bound to ours, a couple of tense weeks ahead of us, because there are some theories that the extremists want to get involved in this election and change the tone of the debate, maybe even change the final result. So france will be under some quite tight security in the next two weeks . Yes, of course. They are outside forces that want chaos in france, or that want extreme is to win in france. But i think the french have proven to be more resilient than their adversaries bought, more rational, much more moderate. There was a terrible attack on this avenue a few nights ago, and it had little if no impact on the French Election. Thousands of people on the Champs Elysees this evening. We werejust people on the Champs Elysees this evening. We were just talking about the State Of Emergency. Has that, do you think, created some of the division in French Society over the last two years . I dont think so. I think the majority of the french have accepted the rationales for the State Of Emergency. They understand it is for their security. France has not become a police state. There we re not become a police state. There were people applauding the policeman on the Champs Elysees on friday, on the day after the event. I dont wa nt the day after the event. I dont want to paint too rosy a picture is that they are much more complex realities underground. There are things that are not fine when you give too much power to some people, it can go wrong. But on the whole, what you have to realise is that the man who has been playing the card of repentance in algeria, the man who has been preaching moderation, the man who has been leading optimism, being A Beacon Of Hope in an ocean of despair is number one tonight. And he is very likely to be the next president of france. For all that hope it would be a very brave new president that ended the State Of Emergency here in france, given the state of the threat france faces. would have two disagree. The State Of Emergency caused division, mostly against muslim families fit. These measures were targeting indiscriminately against muslims specifically. And people being targeted. Targeting practising muslims. I do agree with you, nevertheless, extremists speak the same language. When isis published their paper in february 2015, they called for the impossible, the impossibility of peace between muslims and non muslims. The security measures adopted have failed again and again. We had a bastille day attack. Killed police officers. The solution is not more oppression. Fascinating issues. Very much topical at the moment and they will be in the next two weeks. Back to Emmanuel Macrons headquarters. James has a couple of guests with him. Yes, i have a couple of Young Campaign workers. You worked on the campaign, and you are a macron voter. What is your reaction tonight . I am really glad he actually made it. We were not sure that he was going to win. We were really believing in his political agenda, the programme he made. We we re agenda, the programme he made. We were really believing, but you cannot be certain that it is going to work. Very, very glad. Do you share that . Was this a surprise for you . It is not a surprise. We hoped. He was the leader of the campaign, so he was the leader of the campaign, soi he was the leader of the campaign, so i was confident about his victory tonight. His campaign was based on promises, a lot of promises. Hes now got to deliver promises to win the second round. Youre going to have to answer some serious questions from Socialist Party vote rs, . Questions from Socialist Party voters, . That is questions from Socialist Party voters, . That is whats questions from Socialist Party voters, . That is whats best about Emmanuel Macron, that he chose to be not with the republicans or not with the socialists. He said all along the socialists. He said all along the campaign he would take the best areas from one and another. Actually, its best, because it is absolutely new. You can always stay in this huge gap between left and right. He chooses to be able progressive and that can go with left and right. He is only 39 years old, this is his first election, is france taking a giant risk . I dont think so. We had a young president. He was 48 . Yes. In my opinion, he was a great president so i dont think his age isa president so i dont think his age is a problem for france. I think he is a problem for france. I think he is young so its a value. We can have. Search for the words you will look forward to the second round. We are all now waiting for the candidate to appear on stage. The roof nearly lifted off this place a while back when he first projections were announced and there has been repeated cheering when a defeated candidate comes on and suggests they are about to endorse Emmanuel Macron. Thank you, james. Interesting cnd supporters, very young supporters. They will be out campaigning for him over the next couple of weeks. Interesting seeing his supporters. If you are just interesting seeing his supporters. If You Arejustjoining us, at the top of the projections at the moment, Emmanuel Macron of the centrist on march movement. Followed by Marine Le Pen. We are expecting to hear from Jean Luc Melenchon and also from Marine Le Pen. Lets go to the Pas De Calais region in the north of the country. You are still waiting for Marine Le Pen, what is the reaction from the party . The party is delighted. Ive been speaking to the headquarters senior figures who say this is a clear victory. For Marine Le Pens vision of france and france in europe and they have a lot of confidence going into the second round. Of course they have to say that, everyone knows they have an electoral mountain to climb because of the way in which centrist voters and those from right and left are encouraged to rally against the National Front. She said she has a strategy to deal with that. The room has gone a little quiet, sometimes that means people have been told Marine Le Pen is on her way in. We have been watching the other candidates conceding defeat and booing when there are calls from people like Francois Fillon for his supporters to rally against Marine Le Pen in the second round. The people in the National Front know that when they went into the second round before, it went badly for them. They believe france has changed since then and so are the party and they believe Marine Le Pen is a much better candidate than her father was. Marine le pen is a much better candidate than herfather was. All of that will be put to the test in the next couple of weeks. This is a very important speech for Marine Le Pen i think. She knows, as her supporters know, that that process where defeated candidates from right and left stuck to call on their supporters to vote against her, to rally against her, to keep the National Front out, that process started almost the moment the polls closed in france this evening. We would expect her to have some con of answer, i would think, to those defeated candidates and some kind of appeal to those who supported those defeated candidates so a very important speech. The first round of the election is not really over yet. We are working with projections and they are still counting in the background all over france. The second round of the selection, make no mistake, is already underway and what Marine Le Pen has to say tonight will be a crucial first blow in that second round of campaigning. We will come back to you, kevin, when Marine Le Pen speaks. You will have seen on when Marine Le Pen speaks. You will have seen on your screens when Marine Le Pen speaks. You will have seen on your screens the polling from the kantar Polling Agency. You might see other results on screen from time to time. There are other projections but they are pretty much the same and as kevin said, the interesting thing is that the other candidates have already conceded. We have had a speech from Francois Fillon, urging his supporters to back Emmanuel Macron. Benoit hamon has also spoken and we are waiting to hear from the hard left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon. The well known french journalist and broadcaster christine has joined the well known french journalist and broadcaster Christine Hasjoined us. Tell us a little bit about your feeling of the first round, is it what you expected . First of all, its a political earthquake in this country. The two Major Political parties who have really ruled the country for 50 years are out. Collapsed, dead. The Socialist Party is dead and so was the conservative party. You will have bloodshed starting tomorrow morning if not tonight because obviously, all the leaders, they are all calling to Support Macron now and they will decide how to get there. Support Macron now and they will decide how to get there. I have to interrupted you. It is Marine Le Pen, she is at their headquarters in Henin Beaumont in the north of the country in the Pas De Calais region. Lets listen in. Translation fellow citizens, you have projected me into the second round of the president ial election. And im aware of the honour you are giving me. And im humble and grateful. I would like to express to you french patriots, how grateful i am. The first step which should lead france to the future is already covered. Its an historical result and its for me to take on board the enormous responsibility of defending france, being responsible for its culture, its prosperity, and independence and its security. And its something to do with french pride, a country that raises its head,is pride, a country that raises its head, is surer of its values and trusts into the future. Im sure absolutely every french person has been aware of the fact that the system tried through every possible means, to stifle the big political debate, that the election should have been but that big debate is going to take place at long last. French people have to take on board that historical challenge because the challenge of that election is wild globalisation which attacks our very society. Either we carry on to total deregulation without any borders or protection and the consequences that entails, with International Unfair competition, mass immigration, the free trade and the free circulation of terrorists, or you choose the france with borders that are going to protect our employment and our national identity. So you have two choices and thats the real alternate. The real one, not the one where government merely changes without nothing serious ever changing. What im suggesting is that we should aim for the real alternatives, which will put in place a new type of politics, new faces and a real renewal. It is not with the air of Francois Hollande and all the failure, this catastrophic five yea rs was failure, this catastrophic five years was that alternative is ever going to come. The time has come to free the french population and the whole of the french population without forgetting Friends Overseas that trusted me and im very proud of the confidence they manifested towards me. The time has come to get rid of all the arrogant people who wa nt to rid of all the arrogant people who want to dictate to the population what they should do. I am the candidate for the people. And its an appeal to all the sincere patriots, whether they come wherever they come from and whatever their origin and whoever they voted for in the first round, i invite them all tojoin us for in the first round, i invite them all to join us and for in the first round, i invite them all tojoin us and abandon Old Fashioned quarrels them all tojoin us and abandon Old Fashioned quarrels and concentrate on what is the Superior Interest of our country. That was really essential. Thats what will ensure the survival of france. I call upon you to unite behind our project of renewal and there will be our brothers. In the 8th of august 1943, Charles De Gaulle reminded us of the grandeur of people and there have been 1500 years of the past behind france and thats the principle and going to implement. Gathering together of what all the french dream of, it can only happen through france, long live the republic, long live france and long live the population and the people of france. Chanting there we are, a beaming Marine Le Pen amid the tricolore is at her headquarters at Henin Beaumont. Through to the second round of that vote, trailing Emmanuel Macron, a huge battle ahead of them if they are to take the elysee palace. Lets get the thoughts of christian who is with us. I cut you off in your prime. What we heard from marine, pretty predictable, about borders and national identity, she is the real alternative. Thats what we will hear plenty of in the next two weeks. Indeed and le Front National also been due faith Emmanuel Macron because he is the caricature of the system. Im sure there would have feared much more, having to face either fillon or melenchon because ben benoit hamons candidate never really sprang up. It will be a predictable fight in the next two weeks. Emmanuel macron has already got the support of all the leaders of the system, be they socialist or conservative will of course amuse many conservative will of course amuse ma ny voters conservative will of course amuse many voters of traditional families and they will follow that advice and vote for him. Again, there will be many people who say, i will not go for the republican upsurge that we saw in 2002 whenjacques chirac lost 82 of the vote. I dont think thatll happen this time around. I dont it will be as high. But still, i think le Front National is a very tough fight ahead, even if and thats a remarkable achievement of Marine Le Pens side, i must say, their ideas, the themes will really remain in the National Debate and thats very much her doing. remain in the National Debate and thats very much her doing. I will come back to you but lets get a word from Kevin Connolly who was there at the hq of Marine Le Pen in Henin Beaumont. You are watching these scenes, i know it is very loud. Christine was saying, this will now be a battle and she will try to cast it as a battle between her party and the establishment. Thats exactly right. She talked about this system being against her. We have spoken to a senior figure in the National Front and they say the entire french Mainstream Media is running against them. We got a little taster of the campaign to come. The National Front, she touched on immigration but also on globalisation, uncontrolled and u nfettered globalisation, uncontrolled and unfettered globalisation. The threat to the french way of life. She invited all french people to rally behind the National Front because her messages going to be that this is not about being extreme right any more, its about being patriotic and standing up to the european union, standing up to the european union, standing up to the european union, standing up against globalisation, concerns lots of french voters have and shes trying to tap into that. Marine le pen sending a signal that she is a candidate that all french people should be comfortable rallying behind. Will that message resonate . There is overwhelming opposition from the defeated candidates calling to support Emmanuel Macron. Marine le pen has made a pretty good start in front of a sympathetic audience here in Henin Beaumont and we wait to find out to what extent her answers and words resonate in france on a wider scale. You say the system is against her here but she has had some quite high profile backing from president putin of russia and also from donald trump in america as well. She has. She represents to some extent i suppose, an antiestablishment impulse which we have seen abroad elsewhere in Global Politics and in what is now still a deafening room, a senior representative of the National Front, i will ask you to introduce yourself and we will talk about what this means for the party and for france and what Marine Le Pens chances are in the second round. I am a member of the strategy and ajoint marine round. I am a member of the strategy and a joint Marine Le Pen two years ago for the presidency bid. You used to be an mp for another French Conservative Party and you saw nothing toxic about the National Front, to use that word, you think its a party that other french voters who support other parties can get behind question i believe so, if ijoined Marine Le Pen and if many people will vote for her, its because the one expressing a very strong project for france based on two key elements, one is identity and the other is sovereignty. She wants and she believes france has a great future to offer french citizens and i am very happy the outcome. The election is going to outcome of the election is going to bea outcome of the election is going to be a run between macron and Marine Le Pen as macron has a completely different view of the future for france. He does not believe france has a future, he wants to dissolve front inside the european union. He doesnt believe in our identity. He even said france doesnt have any culture. He believes more migrants should come into france. Marine le pen stands for a very different project. She believes very clearly and simply that france has a future, but we can rebuild our identity and that we can rebuild the nation together without having to ask brussels what they want us to do. Using the system and media is against her. All the other candidates are against air. She has a mountain to climb, can she win . The first round was already a mountain. The entire media system is owned by people backing our adversary Emmanuel Macron, so the first run was already made for her to trip and she did not trip so now people who voted for Francois Fillon they voted for him because they believed he was talking about france. We dont think he was being honest and i think a lot of people joined us in the first round straightaway. People who believed Francois Fillon were not talking about france are going tojoin us because we are the only ones talking about france. The National Front suffered a disaster a couple of yea rs suffered a disaster a couple of years ago, will it be different next time . First of all i am not part of le Front National, ijoined marine le Front National, ijoined Marine Le Pen and an assembly of people that believe france can offer is future to the french people. I am very optimistic because of the clarity of the debate. Thank you. We will speak to you in the second round i hope. That is the mood here at the National Front gathering in Henin Beaumont. There is confidence they can get that message across that Marine Le Pen has detoxified the National Front, its a safe party for the mainstream to vote. Of course they would. She has two weeks to make that argument on a wider french stage. Lots of worries and outs for the party because they know Emmanuel Macron is a very strong favourite candidate in the second round but tonight is a night to celebrate and tomorrow will be when the strategising and the doubts and worries become more serious. An earthquake of noise greeted Marine Le Pens speech. The question we are waiting for now is to what extent that speech resonated with other french voters listening at home on tv. It will certainly resonate with her supporters. But it may well divide other parts of france. I want to show you some pictures we are getting in from bastille in the centre of paris and these are clashes between supporters of Emmanuel Macron and those of Marine Le Pen. It tends to be a focus in paris for demonstrations. You can see the riot Police Involved and some fairly ugly scenes. There were fears this might happen if Marine Le Pen got into the second round and clearly some people very angry that she has managed to defeat some of the more traditional parties to get through to the next part of the vote. It kind of followers, christine, that over the next few weeks with her in the second round, it is not only seems like this concerning people but also, were bound to focus on the terrorism. There are some that want to change the tone of the debate and even the results possibly. Of course, im not sure if these are actually supporters of either side fighting. You also have people who always take the opportunity to have a good fight and breaka the opportunity to have a good fight and break a few windows u nfortu nately, and break a few windows unfortunately, in that part of town. That being said, yes, lets not forget that here, we have been living in this country for the past 16 months and the State Of Emergency. Although people have shown extraordinary resilience in going about their lives as usual, this is going to be of course, it will add again to the tension between these two candidates for the two weeks to come. Marine le pen was actually the only candidate it seems, who took advantage of the last attack here in the chavancy lycee last thursday night. Her ratings went up one point at the time. Those scenes will worry you because the focus will be on the suburbs of paris as well. Kevin was saying that the message about immigration and closing the borders against the open facing Emmanuel Macron, that is the message we will get over the next few weeks. What sort of reaction are we likely to get from migrant populations in france . They spoke about the clash is happening in the ce ntre about the clash is happening in the centre of paris, not the suburbs. We havent seen that many immigrants getting into those clashes. This shows French Society, the choices being imposed by no, its the hope of big corporations, a type of economy and identity politics. Now the question to be answered is how long this system will go on because of his Anti Corruption scandals, of the election, the current scores of macron and le pen, tell us that at the end of the Fifth Republic, the Socialist Party and its message, le changement, cest maintenant, the question is how long can this party state up and running . What do you wa nt to state up and running . What do you want to here from Emmanuel Macron thatis want to here from Emmanuel Macron that is different to what we have heard so far in the campaign . We grew up with people making promises and breaking them after every election. The reason why i dont believe anything today is because we have had an example with Francois Hollande who was elected on the Left Wing Programme and applied right wing to some extent, a far right wing to some extent, a far right programme when it comes to identity and security holidays so regardless of what Emmanuel Macron says, nothing will oblige him to actually bring about positive change. But what he can do is actually implement a new system and work with everybody in this country to give some more counter powers and more checks and balances for the average citizens and to hold into account. He has a lot of responsibility on his shoulders. Indeed and he will have to be very contradictory and meet contradictory expectations. Unemployment is very high in the country, especially among young people. Many people feel excluded of the Decision Making system. Emmanuel macron has promised as he has no political party, he has actually promised that for the parliamentary elections which will follow next june, parliamentary elections which will follow nextjune, he will have candidates from what we called nonprofessional society. People who would try to get elected for the first time. How will these people be elected . How will that balance with all the former socialist mps, conservative mps, rallying, starting tonight. It will be a very difficult exercise. In political terms and even more so in social terms. We are watching pictures from mr macrons hq and we will go to that when he appears. They are expecting him to come out and speak any second. As christine says, there may be conflicting messages from mr macron. He is useful and has the support of young people and talks about en marche, lets get france going again. At the same time, you would expect he would keep the State Of Emergency in place, he will want to control immigration so you doesnt upset the right wing of his party. How will the balance those conflicting interests. If it is vague, it is definitely fake. Macron has been swinging between here and there and trying to please as many people as possible but the time crunch will be under until the legislative election. Maybe he will make sure you will be rushing to have as many candidates as possible without due process and without selecting the most competent ones. Many socialist candidates began to rally before the election. The message is sent to the people of what you would call the suburbs or of ethnic background, when the only spokesperson of minority background and a muslim person was put under pressure by the far right, the immediately dismissed him in a few hours, just not to resist the cause of the far right because that person actually shared messages about this and that organisation. Does this represent some of the frustration there is for mainstream politicians . I dont share your pessimism. I think the fact that voters have gone to vote, even if the Abstention Rate remains as usual, around 20 , there is indeed an appetite for change in this country and that is paradoxically, what the two winners show. And they are diametrically opposed. But it shows that in the democracy in this country is indeed very vibrant and very vivacious and people go for it. And again, just think of the french, always depicting themselves about being so depressed and so morose, consuming so much medicine to be in a better mood. These people have gone to vote. But he is right, his campaign or his policies have been vague. Marine le pen made this point in one of the tv debates and he said she said what he said was waffle and she didnt know what macron stood for. There will be other people who agree in the country. Yes. He has his coming two weeks. He has been very vague. It has worked for him, hasnt it . So now, indeed, there will be a lot of pressure requesting him to be more precise about his programme. Although his Economic Programme is pretty precise, especially concerning taxes. But of course, the french, our politics always goes through a lot of words. We love words. Thats what our culture is about. So we expect macron indeed to be much more vocal and much more engaging and indeed much more precise in what he will offer to oppose Marine Le Pen. He is nothing if not contrary, Jean Luc Melenchon, he is the only one we have not seen from this evening and he is refusing to concede at this moment. He says he will refuse to allocate a score based on polls and the big city results are yet unknown so i call eve ryo ne results are yet unknown so i call everyone to be cautious. In the projections we have seen, he is neck and neck with Francois Fillon in third place so he would have to make up third place so he would have to make up quitea third place so he would have to make up quite a lot to get into the second round. But we will keep an eye on. There are no incentives for macron to be more vocal because people would be voting not for him but actually against Marine Le Pen. Just as they did for Francois Hollande and against nicolas sa rkozy. We have hollande and against Nicolas Sarkozy. We have seen in elections that voting for the lesser of two evils does not bring about positive change. The problem now is that we also have to look beyond the elections and to get out of this, in quotation marks, that everything will be solved during elections. We need to look at the Bigger Picture at our institutional favouritism. Right now the fact you vote for someone right now the fact you vote for someone does not guarantee that anything will change. That is a good point because looking at Emmanuel Macron, trying to paint him as an outsider, but hes not. He comes from where all the politicians come from. He knows how the state machine works. You could look at it another way and say he is one of the same as all the rest. Where are the political candidates from Civil Society . That is what he is supposed to bring about for the parliamentary elections. Lets see if he keeps that promise. That was one of the appealing argument he expressed at the beginning. He said, we are all tired of the usual crowds. And so i promise, said macron. We will see whether he keeps to his word. He said, i will bring about new people to parliament. He also wants, which would go in your way, to put down the number of parliament receipts. Youd think there are too many. He also wants to introduce a proportion of proportional vote. We have a system here which, as opposed to a british one, is a two round Majority Vote which always favours the large Political Parties and eliminates the smaller ones. Would you welcome that . If france moves towards a more proportional representation system, it would open the door to smaller parties and move politics away from a two party system. They are dead anyway. I stopped believing in promises a long time ago. This is interesting. You have said that several times. You are so disgusted with french politics. I come from a generation of french people who grew up generation of french people who grew up being lied to. At an age when you vote, it does not work. In 2002, i will never forget that day. Four years after the winning of the world cup, the so called black arab and White National team, in the second round of the election that we had a series of actual disappointments. Today the question is not about expecting the best but it is for us to expect the best. But prepare for the worst. Why dont you run for parliament . That would be most interesting. If i am parliament . That would be most interesting. Ifi am alone parliament . That would be most interesting. If i am alone against 700. Interesting. If i am alone against 700. Why would you be alone . You would be an example for other people will stop it is all too easy. Actually i work actively. I think change will come from Civil Society. Lam about change will come from Civil Society. I am about influencing those in power for the rest of us. We are looking at the projections as they stand. It really reflects on what you are saying. There are plenty of young people who feel so despondent. The worrying thing is when you look at Marine Le Pen, when you look at her numbers, it is paradoxically different to the way the uk is structured. Young people are voting against europe, against globalisation, against the establishment. In britain, conversely, it is the older people who are voting for that. Especially in france, it depends on the level of education. That is the sad phenomenon. Young people with lower who cannot find a job, education, who cannot find a job, who are really angry they go for Marine Le Pen. That is obvious. In no european countries, the dividing line between what can be called the populist appeal and the more classical approach. It has been great to get your thoughts. We have enjoyed your company. A very different perspective. Thats cross over to nice, the scene of the dreadful terror attacks last year. You have been talking to lots of people today. What is the reaction to the result as it stands . These are two people that many young people have spoken to me about. This link to your guests, it was interesting talking about young people. 25 are unemployed. That figure came up. They are talking about who might be the best person to help them get out of that when it comes to their economy. The other part, of course, you mentioned bastille day, 2016. Not too far from where i am speaking, that terror attack took place. 86 people were killed and hundreds injured. There we re killed and hundreds injured. There were other attacks around the country. With the security that has been part of the election day and pa rt been part of the election day and part of the city since the State Of Emergency was installed in 2015. People are talking about that. Some of them, it is a stronghold for Marine Le Pen in some ways and her father before her. They talk about security in some of them to link it to immigration. They feel it is to open. The border to italy is 35 calamities away from where im speaking to you. We have had very vibrant debates. The other part is the european union. A very clear choice when it comes to voters. If they are voting for mr macron or miss Marine Le Pen. All the others who voted for the other candidates, some people we have spoken to say, what do they do now . Who do they throw their support behind . Some other siding that both candidates are difficult for them to get behind and support. Some indeed for a majority of the youth i have been speaking to over the last couple of days. You are down there during the Terrorist Attack. The migrant community, the french algerian and french tunisian population, they we re very french tunisian population, they were very nervous french tunisian population, they were very nervous about french tunisian population, they were very nervous about some french tunisian population, they were very nervous about some of the reaction. Will they be nervous about Marine Le Pen getting into the second round . Marine le pen getting into the second round . Very much so. Itll be interesting to see, once we get the exact details in the coming hour, how does exactly break down in this region . 0ne how does exactly break down in this region . One area has been a place where many migrants and refugees have come through. There has been criticism, not only of the migrants and refugees but the people who have helped them in that particular area. Then we go to a small town not too farfrom here. There are people who are quite hard line and agree with Marine Le Pen. They would like to see her do immediately exposed as a cutback on the number of immigrants. Populations are very much worried about her. Mr macron will be a more obvious choice for them. People are french but of different ethnicities. We have had a passionate discussions about what it means to be french now. This is also of course an election for cultural insecurity was the term that was brought up again and again. What does it mean to be french . What does a person had to do, believe or speak to be recognised as french . When we get some numbers through, who voted where, how and why, we will have a picture that will be an interesting two weeks coming up. Good to see you. Thank you for those thoughts. Just looking at the results on the bottom of the screen. As the votes are being counted, the gap between mr macron and Marine Le Pen, that is a different way around. The Interior Ministry result on the bottom of the screen. Ministry result on the bottom of the screen. That is after the actual vote count, after 20 million votes have been counted. A bit of a surprise, a bit reversal of what we saw in the earlier projections. Lets get some reaction to that. Christine is still here. What do you make of that . That is slightly different to what we were seeing earlier. What sort of message would that send around europe . Earlier. What sort of message would that send around europe7m earlier. What sort of message would that send around europe . It is more in line with what we have been talking back in the last few weeks. Ina way, talking back in the last few weeks. In a way, they should not be as much ofa in a way, they should not be as much of a surprise. What is really important is we have Marine Le Pen against macron in the second round. That is quite an indictment on the french political system. If you look at the results, Francois Fillon, the traditional left, they are together doing about 25 of the votes. These two aqua parties have governed france. In the round, the new party. The National Front was created 40 yea rs the National Front was created 40 years ago. How many millions of voters are we talking about . Voting for a voters are we talking about . Voting forafar voters are we talking about . Voting for a far right party, what is that . Someone gave us a figure earlier on, probably too early. I guess it will be around 16 million. 2496 probably too early. I guess it will be around 16 million. 24 of 20 million. There we have around 20 million. There we have around 20 million votes. Probably 5 million voted for Marine Le Pen. That is an extraordinary number of people. We will see to what extent she makes any progress in the next round. Her father did not make that much progress between the two rounds. In this case, the question would be, what happens to people who supported Jean Luc Melenchon, would they Support Macron . Presumably, for them, macron is not as bad as Francois Fillon. He will still represent those from the neoliberals. We also may have former Jean Luc Melenchon supporters who may go back to le Front National. There were strange moments, i remember in marseille particularly, people were being interviewed. They we re people were being interviewed. They were saying, i thought i would vote for Marine Le Pen butJean Luc Melenchon is more exciting and more fun. Is now because the economic platform is virtually indistinguishable . Absolutely. The capitalism of the european union. There may be more of a switch. There isa there may be more of a switch. There is a difference in terms of family values. Ten, crew is more progressive than Marine Le Pen. Fall a pen, the Economic Programme is very blurry. For Marine Le Pen. There are some evidence that makes her difficult to locate. The dna of le Front National hasnt changed. A lot of people around the world voting for donald trump, brexit, will say this is in line with what we think. We do not like globalisation and the fact we do not have a nationalist boys in our country. That is gathering strength across europe. Voice. Yes, and noble study did not happen in holland. They did not make that much progress. In germany, the far right has split up two days ago. So, i think, that is the shock of wrecks it. I do not believe it is true that we europeans, actually, are condemned to go through such a wave of populism. Again, i think, whatever the final score of macron tonight may be, it is an extraordinary positive phenomenon, ina extraordinary positive phenomenon, in a sense that again he has been promoting europe, he has been promoting europe, he has been promoting optimism, as opposed to what Marine Le Pen has been saying. It is complicated to compare this vote with the brexit vote. Some elements are familiar. It is a vote of pessimism. People who were left behind. It is also a very different type of consultation. It is the type of election that french people are used to. In a way, it is showing that french people have learned the lessons, i would say, of the us and the uk and have actually thought about voting strategically or voting with their reasoning rather than with their reasoning rather than with their reasoning rather than with their hearts to avoid something they fear would be much worse. The figures we are showing you from the Interior Ministry will stop they put Marine Le Pen on 24. 3 and macron on 22 . Iam being Marine Le Pen on 24. 3 and macron on 22 . I am being told that does not include the city votes. This includes votes outside the city, so it may indeed shift again. I was on the left bank the other day and i could not find anyone who was not supporting Jean Luc Melenchon, i have to say. That is the explanation. The inner cities, paris, for example, the progression of the National Front has been in place. Just as the brexit vote has beenin place. Just as the brexit vote has been in rural places, in the former industrial areas, places where people are struggling against globalisation, struggling against the economic situation. Put your Political Scientist hat back on for us. Explain to me how it will work in the National Assembly. It is a president ial system. He is a movement and not a party. We have just been saying the two party system is dead. Lots of politicians belong to those two parties. What will happen between now, the second round of this vote, and those regional, parliamentary elections in june . Well, what they are trying to do is find candidates. Macron has said he would have 50 of the candidates who would be newcomers into politics. He really intends to renew the Political Class. A new Political Class . If it happens, itll be interesting. First there be some outcome is. There is a lot of uncertainty about whether he will have actually a majority in parliament or whether he will be in coalition with some of the other parties. To be elected, you need people who campaign and people who are outgoings. People who have voted sometimes have a certain loyalty towards them. To assume they will necessarily be ousted is hard in a way. I suppose, the question is, if you are putting a big, reforming platform forward, you have to be aborted paulfrom platform forward, you have to be aborted paul from right platform forward, you have to be aborted paulfrom right and left. The problem for president Francois Hollande is he could not. Here is Emmanuel Macronjust hollande is he could not. Here is Emmanuel Macron just arrived in hollande is he could not. Here is Emmanuel Macronjust arrived in his hq. He could not count on some of his party to support him. hq. He could not count on some of his party to support him. I think president Francois Hollande theres a huge responsibility in the colla pse a huge responsibility in the collapse of the Socialist Party. For all his cleverness, always finding compromises, he was not able to actually rally the various clans within the Socialist Party, which is now againa within the Socialist Party, which is now again a dead corpse. I think what macron will try and do, it will be very difficult, by the way. A p pa re ntly be very difficult, by the way. Apparently there are many people who wa nt to apparently there are many people who want to get engaged and want to get elected. But, as you said, they do not have the experience or the local connections. It is a very delicate selection to make. I was interested the other night when they won the Television Debate after the dreadful incident on the shonda lee say. What is your plan for terrorism and to control immigration . You cannot expect me to come up with a plan of the car. Francois fillon wrote a book and the man who could be their next president does not have a policy. Remember donald trump in the debate against Hillary Clinton saying, iam much debate against Hillary Clinton saying, i am much too clever. I never reveal my plan to defeat isil. It can also be interpreted as, i do not have a plan, a rabbit out of a hat. That is what i was trying to get at. I understand that. Look at the trick killers. They are in buoyant mood. What would they make of the man who names his movement with his initials . It is his movement, Emmanuel Macron. In france, Political Parties do not accept themselves for Political Parties. They can be called Political Parties. They are always called Something Else. With the exception of parties on the left, communist and socialist parties, it is part of this tradition. Lets contrast two camps. There you have en marche and they are waiting for Emmanuel Macron. Now lets go to the headquarters of Francois Fillon. I imagine it is quiet and a bit depressed, is it . Yes, fairly quiet. There are still a fewjournalists, as you can see behind me, doing lives, as we are now. Supporters have mainly left and guests have also left. We have seen a few tears among supporters watching Francois Fillons session speech will stop he said that, despite his efforts and determination, there were too many obstacles put in his way. He said there will be a moment when the truth about this election will come out. He said that le Front National is known for its violence and intolerance. That is why he will vote against a Marine Le Pen in the second round. He was put in his place. The obstacles were things he put into place himself. He is not taking any responsibility for the defeat at all. Exactly. What has happened is that he was well on track to win this president ial race. Remember, when he won his partys primary, he was the favourite of this president ial election race. A Corruption Scandal emerged, in which he was accused of having paid his wife and children for alleged fake jobs. His campaign was hit by these scandals. He slipped in the polls. He was neverfar scandals. He slipped in the polls. He was never far behind the front runners in the polls. His supporters we re runners in the polls. His supporters were hoping that his experience as a former Prime Minister would actually convince the undecided on voting day. Indeed. We are watching pictures of the Emmanuel Macron head quarters. He is about to speak very shortly. We are going to talk in a second to a member of the Republican Party. We will see what he makes. He is just trying to say, hello. We have just been hearing about what Francois Fillon has been saying. I was making the point that he is saying obstacles were put in his way. What do you make of that . That does not mean that he is not responsible for the defeat. This is a defeat. There is no other way to treat it. Should he have resigned . You cannot rebuild history. Everything has gone. Everything next will play the next round, the legislative, i am campaigning for that. Nothing is set yet. For macron, it will be difficult. He does not have so many people well implemented in each constituency. I know there are some turmoils among his people because some have come from the left, some from the right. That will also be difficult. We will battle anyway. You think there has been a tug of war and you will pull him this way . I think we may have a National Assembly that will be very divided and no real majority. There isa divided and no real majority. There is a danger that we may have, as we used to have before 1958, all talented majority for each subject, each item. I think it can be very difficult and it may also lead to a new dismissal of the National Assembly in a years time. What do you make of that . That is a danger for you make of that . That is a danger foer you make of that . That is a danger for mr macron, that he gets pulled in two directions and cannot fulfil a programme. It is a real danger. The idea that the Socialist Party would carry on without being too affected themselves is probably a bit optimistic. I think they will try to remain as far as possible. The effort by macron will be to build his own party. It will be difficult. What will happen to your partly . Difficult. What will happen to your partly . N ow difficult. What will happen to your partly . Now you are the Republican Party. Will it be another reincarnation . We will have lots at an emotional level. In my constituency, i am sorry to say it is quite important because we are many, many mps who may also win again. Ido many, many mps who may also win again. I do believe that we will have a second round. The second round coming in a fortnight, it will be difficult for many people who have voted for Francois Fillon to work for macron. There should be a lot of blank votes. We will go straight to Jean Luc Melenchon lot of blank votes. We will go straight toJean Luc Melenchon of the hard left, who is speaking. Straight toJean Luc Melenchon of the hard left, who is speakingm any case. The hard left, who is speakingm any case. It is certainly not the result that was announced that will be the right one because the home 0ffice be the right one because the home office is waiting until midnight tonight to produce official results. By tonight to produce official results. By then, various oligarchs and media specialists are extremely pleased. There is nothing more exciting for them than the second round between two candidates who have proved and wa nt two candidates who have proved and want both to prolong the present institutions and who seem to have no ecological conscience, and are unaware, it seems, as to the peril that threatens human civilisation and both once again will fight again the social app acquired rights which are so fundamental for our country. Nonetheless, in any case, once the official results are known, we will respect those results. I cannot say, or do more, at present. It is for each one of you, in your own conscience, to decide what your duty is. And i will follow that. I have received no mandate from the 457 people who decided to put forward my candidacy. And they did not give me their right to express myself on behalf of them. It will be for them to decide upon the platform and the result of their expression will be made public. My my beautiful country, my homeland, mike dutiful homeland. All of you, its people, we can be proud of what we started together, what we managed to do. We are a force, a strength fall of awareness and enthusiasm. I invite you to remain grouped together, to go on moving forward. There are various challenges we designated without hiding any of the difficulties, which are contained in them. Well, these challenges, we still have to face them. Those people today would like to represent all of us. They have already proved we are unable to think about these challenges. The hours and the days to come have to do with the conscience, where people, you, the people, my homeland so much loved. It is like if you were at the dawn ofa it is like if you were at the dawn of a new morning, a new morning that is emerging. It is important to be faithful to the republic. Long live the republic and long live france at scrummage mark long live france so, Jean Luc Melenchon not conceding just yet. We will respect the result when he get it, he says. He is resolute. He will speak to us a little bit later. We are still waiting to hear from little bit later. We are still waiting to hearfrom Emmanuel Macron. We have seen the scenes at his headquarters. There are the cameras waiting for Emmanuel Macron to speak. It is interesting, isnt it . He seems to be delaying so that he is the one speaking last. That is pa rt he is the one speaking last. That is part of thejob. He is the one speaking last. That is part of the job. Look president ial. Come out last. He has also shown great Strategic Thinking in planning his position on the political spectrum. He has been helped by the radicalisation of both parties through the primary selection process. He is right in the middle. He is clearly good at analysing politics. Yes. If you are just joining us, there are two slightly different projections we have at the moment. 0ne different projections we have at the moment. One from the Interior Ministry which puts Marine Le Pen in front of Emmanuel Macron after 20 million votes have been counted. Marine le pen on 24 and macron on 22. Looking at the projections, they haveit 22. Looking at the projections, they have it the other way around. They have it the other way around. They have Emmanuel Macron in front and Marine Le Pen behind withJean Luc Melenchon and Francois Fillon on 19 . There you go. They are the pollsters that have been helping us through this evening. En marche is making the point they have not counted the votes from the cities. Jean luc melenchon. Heres hoping he is in with a shout