Now on bbc news dateline london. Hello, im shaun ley. Welcome to the programme that brings together leading columnists in the uk, bbc specialists, and the foreign correspondents who send their stories to audiences back home from the dateline london. This week. The eu and uk agree to keep on talking, the Us Supreme Court declines to hear, and borisjohnson sees no covid crisis because of christmas provided its a little one. Joining us this week, ian martin whose columns appear in the times newpaper. Jeffrey kaufmann, a former network news anchor in the United States. Here in the studio with me is celia hatton, asia pacific editor for the bbc. It was the english puritans who cancelled christmas. Borisjohnson is no puritan. In the 17th century, the festival had become an excuse for licentiousness, or to use the argo of 2020 failing to observe social distancing. This week, the Welsh Government departed from the uk wide consensus brokered just last week up to three households able to meet indoors. In wales, it will be two households. Mrjohnson didnt sing it, but he did plead with people around the uk to have yourself a merry little christmas. Celia, is this a case of Boris Johnson wanting to have his christmas cake and eat it . Its tricky, we are seeing political leaders around the world struggling with this issue. In some issues, germany, weve seen these pre Christmas Lockdown is being imposed, but other countries are really struggling, too. The philippines in particular, really what we are seeing borisjohnson struggling with, we are seeing the philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte struggling with this as well. The philippines is 94 christian, so christmas is a really big deal. For weeks now, he has been pleading with the population to keep gathering small, to stop singing, so church choirs, but also karaoke. And he is trying to introduce the idea that christmas should include small, solemn gatherings. A lot of people are probably going to ignore him. It is really interesting watching that play out in two Different Countries around the world. Martyn, how worried do think some of Boris Johnsons parliamentary colleagues and his conservative party are about this . Very interesting, because of course at the time of talking there are meetings ongoing about what to do about the situation in the south east of england and in london in particular, so it is that cluster around the capital where there are reports of a new strain. And that is reforcing him to rethink the christmas rule. It is a issue across europe, not unique to the uk. Boris johnson, a few weeks ago you would have said, and i certainly wrote, that he would come under immense pressure in parliamentary terms to not cancel christmas, something he doesnt want to do. But actually there is a sense of exhaustion, and im sure people feel it in countries around the world, but in the uk politics is taking a back seat here. People have had a really tough year, and i think actually the expectation, and you mentioned the tory tribes, and he does have serious issues on his back benches, but on the christmas issue i do not think that he will face that much criticism. The battle will be early in the new year, because of course britain is already vaccinating. It will be how quickly the post Christmas Lockdown can the uk can open up and try and get the economy moving again. Jeffrey, you are joining us from spain. That is a country that locked down early and dramatically in the spring. It hasnt necessarily solved all of the problems. How are things there at the moment . I thinkjeffrey had broken while we try to get him back, lets think about what will happen in the coming months. Given the pressure coming from the other parts of the uk, do you think that is looking more likely . I think it is, i am not a lockdown sceptic, i have argued for other approaches as well but it seems pretty clear from the numbers what is happening in terms of case numbers but alos admissions to hospitals. The concern is allowing people to mix more over christmas and new year, the five day window in the uk, a price will be paid for that in the middle ofjanuary. So as ever throughout this crisis, the concern of the uk government is a sense of the nhs, the National Health service, being potentially swamped. It is not a uniquely british problem. Across europe, look what has happened in germany this week, look how sombre Angela Merkel was with the new restrictions in germany. A very big deal obviously for germans to face even tougher restrictions on christmas, a time that really matters in german culture. I think its just seen as, we are so close if not to the finishing line but light at the end of the tunnel, probably in march, by which point certainly in the uk and hopefully in other parts of europe, large numbers and hopefully all vulnerable populations will be vaccinated. The Vaccination Programme can then start to move further down the vulnerable list. By march april, the hope is you will have something feels more like normality. As i said earlier, i think that is where the crunch point is going to come. Because many people will then say, look, the vulnerable in uk terms, say 15 million people, have already been vaccinated, we cannot go on borrowing and spending in this way. We have to get the economy moving around easter. I think that will be the battleground. But i think anyone who is saying no lockdown injanuary is going to be disappointed. I think there will be really quite tough restrictions across europe. On that, geoffrey you are in valencia, what is happening there now . There is a odd sense of dystopian normalicy. Everyone is open, everyone living life in a way that shows no sign of coronavirus, except everyone is wearing a mask, it is the law, on the street, when you are cycling. People have been terrified given what they have gone through in 2020, and it is particularly notable that young people, 18, 20 years old, all wearing masks. The compliance here inaudible. That being said, there will be no travel between regions over the christmas holidays, and you just have to look at the United States to see what happened in late november to see why spain and other countries are worried about the holiday period. Inaudible. More and more records being shattered in the us, 300,000 dead, 3600 deaths in the us on wednesday, the highest ever. Intensive care units in the us running out of beds. Every country, this virus knows no borders, it sets its own agenda. Political leaders and smart people everywhere are following it. What is extraordinary when you compare spain to the United States is here, there seems to be a real consensus. In the us, of course, a very different story. We will leave it there for now. Donald rumsfeld, the former us defense secretary, wrote a book recently, the center held, in which he argued that president gerald ford, for whom he worked, had helped to save american democracy after the turmoil of the late sixties and watergate and the corruption of fords predecessor, richard nixon. Half a century on, despite Donald Trumps tirades against the most corrupt election ever, the Electoral College met this week to confirm joe bidens victory. Injanuary, he will be inaugurated as the 46th president of the United States. Half a century onm, hsd geoffrey, you are in spain as i have said, but looking back at what has been happening in the United States, it sounds a strange question to pose, but its been a very strange period after the election. How close do you think america came to becoming a dictatorship . There were certainly rumblings, there were moments when trump might have liked Something Like that, but the institutions of american democracy have been tested and survived. It can be overstating it to say that normality will return. The damage to the credibility of the electoral system, the damage to the institutions, the credibility of the voting system. Even though there is zero evidence inaudible the ongoing narrative in american elections. I dont think its a question of a dictatorship for people, inaudible. We had the former National Security adviser inaudible limited martial law, a National Real election, it never came to any of that. But notwithstanding the us Electoral College a lot of republicans voters still say the election was stolen. I think ultimately the concerns are overdone and flynn had his particular bizarre experience during the trump years. What is fascinating about the trump personality, persona, is watching the volume turned down. Inaudible. Holidays can pass and you no longer have to think, what is trump thinking and doing . It has been a very stressful period. The republics not perfect, the founders were not perfect in how they designed it, however they did a pretty good job. And actually on the whole, the institutions and constitution have held remarkably well. The comparison with ford that Donald Rumsfeld makes it is rather a good one. What america now needs is a period of relative calm, and a president that can try and speak for, if not all americans then a far greater number if not all americans then a far greater number of americans. Hes going to have huge difficulties. Look at what he is inheriting. In the most spectacular way since the cold war, huge challenges with the virus in the us. The hacking. Policy has always been divided, this is not a new development, but it is particularly vicious at the moment. The marvellous thing about american politics is we have just had one electoral cycle and it all begins again. Already the republicans are thinking about reorganising for the midterms, coming up, and that is the beauty of the american system. It will move on and it will make it possible to forget, sort of, donald trump. Im not sure everybody would use the word marvellous but in terms of the challenge joe biden faces, all very well for him to talk about consensus and reaching out, but quite a few people on the Progressive Side of the democratic party, the last thing they wanted him reaching out to republicans, that would mean further compromising an agenda that they dont think is radical enough in the first. Absolutely. A lot of people have been biding their time and waiting for a democrat to go into the white house again, and they are not looking for co operation, they dont want the center to hold. They want the left to take its place and ideally roll back a lot of what donald trump put into action. So its going to be really interesting to see how joe biden navigates this course. There is also a lot of pressure on him, as was said, to really get him to unite the two halves. A lot of people in the United States are tired of this ongoing split in us politics, and the challenges it puts up. Geoffrey, do you think biden can be another gerald ford . You know, the potential criminal charges donald trump faces, will he pardon him . Particularly given how much trump has tried to rig the system in his own favour. You can argue this both ways. On one level we should move on, the government should let it go and put this to rest. Inaudible. The message cannot be that trump is above the law. This is not quite nixon. Nixon did his dirty tricks and covered them up. Trump faces a series of potential criminal charges that really make up a very long list. More than a dozen specific issues. It is an interesting question. There is a perception that the republicans govern themselves. And on the left there was a sense of wait a minute, we are inclusive and they get in and they. They get in and theyjust do what they want. I think biden has made it clear. If you look at his cabinet picks, given the exhaustion, the seriousness of the political divide, trying to build this is by far the wisest of choices even if it does in some cases alienate and upset some of the far left of his party. I do think biden is going to find it particularly difficult because the republicans actually are rather well placed, they do have the hope that trump gets tied up in litigation, which he probably will for the next three or four years, he will spend most of his time in court. They dont want him to set up his own party, a third party runa bit like ross perot in 1992. A lot of the forces unleashed by trump, i would say the republicans are not in bad shape. Are still there, and i would say the republicans are not in bad shape. Brexit its the gift that keeps on giving. Well, for headline writers at least. Threats and deadlines are made and passed. On sunday, there was optimism after the latest deadline was reached and the uk and eu decided to let it pass and keep on talking instead. At the end of the week pessism no trade deal, warned borisjohnson, unless europe moves significa ntly on fish. Good job, as dateline was the first to reveal, that the Prime Minister is off to india next month in the hunt for a free trade deal. But again, things arent always quite as they are presented. Ian, why should we treat with some caution the things that the participants say about the negotiations at this stage . That is a good question. Both sides, both negotiating parties, are obviously trying to brief the domestic audiences. There are messages that they want to be heard, showing that they are being tough, and standing up to the other side. Ultimately what it comes down to is almost all of the deal is done, hundreds of pages of text and individual agreements, it is all there, effectively, apart from a couple of minor things on level playing fields, we think. But the big issue is fish. The two sides, and this is why i think no deal is still really very possible, and people shouldnt be blase about it, simply because the account is a lwa ys simply because the account is always kicked down the road and people think this is what the European Union does and they will just be European Union does and they willjust be a deal at one minutes to midnight on the final day. The split on fish and the gulf in understanding is still so wide that one or both sides is going to have to move quite a lot on fishing rights and access to british waters after the transition period. It is perfectly possible, and sometimes this happens in history, you get a disaster or you get an outcome but no one intended to happen, almost by accident, because both sides miss read each other. At the moment they are genuinely stuck. The british negotiator, lord frost, very close to borisjohnson, issued his warning the other night, saying that the divisions, the stumbling blocks are serious. He was trying to put people on notice that no deal, its a 50 50 potential outcome. And what is incredible about this is that fisheries is really such a small part of the european economy. Depending on which numbers you read, it is about 0. 01 or0. 02 of the british economy. Economically inconsequential, but lets not be dismissive, because if you are a fisher in the coastal regions, involved in fishing or processing, it matters, its yourjob. The thing about fishing, people understand territorial waters. They understand the ancient rights of fishing and the Property Rights associated with that. And so it becomes a tangible thing about taking back control, and that is the mantra brexit was sold on. So while its inconsequential beyond the small group of people directly affected, it has a much bigger role, an outsized role i would say, given its place in the economy. So it becomes this political symbol that simply neither side wants to back down. Celia, this opportunity the Prime Minister has taken to visit india, to be a guest of honour at the Independence Celebrations in january, you can see the potential importance. But even the pocket harry s foreign secretary said it could take, he doesnt think it will take, he doesnt think it will take, but it could take up to ten yea rs take, but it could take up to ten years to seal the deal. Around asia and the pacific region, the financial opportunities for a relatively small country geographically, a long way away, like britain . It is quite tricky. I think britain really has a difficult road ahead. Lets look at china, britains Third Largest trading partner, china in particular, way before, when borisjohnson was touting the benefits of brexit, he was talking about signing a trade deal with china. Well, now relations with china have plummeted in the past few years. And that is because china has changed its outlook on foreign policy. Its adopted a much more assertive foreign policy. This mantra that youre either with us or against us. We have seen this happen with several countries where china has taken trade and used it to punish many countries that have criticised beijing on human rights. Australia, most obviously at the moment. Australia now, but we have seen it play out with norway, south korea, canada, it has happened over and over. And now britain is wading into it as well, because we have seen borisjohnson and his colleagues criticising china on its treatment of the uighurs. And the decision on 5g. To exclude huawei. Absolutely. When britain is looking at its biggest trading partners and wondering whether it can sign favourable trading deals, its going to be very difficult for it to sign one with china, for example. So really, those trading deals which are plum forthe picking, im not quite sure if they are there. A century ago we talked about imperial preference, there was a big debate about using the empire and getting favourable trade arrangements with countries like australia and so on. We have a commonwealth now. Do the commonwealth nations open up much potential opportunity . Did the australians and new zealanders feel well disposed towards the uk . The uk more or less abandoned then when itjoined europe. Maybe a little, on the fringes. I have long been a sceptic on the centrality, the idea that trade deals are central to the whole project of brexit. Actually quite a bit of progress seems to have been made by the department for international trade, they have rolled over a lot of deals and they seem optimistic about what comes. Britain is largely a domestic economy. It is still one of the most open global economies in the world, but even so, more than 70 of its economy is domestic. The idea that because we cant sign a trade deal with china, which actually, the british certainly, after the experience of covid 19 and everything going on in security terms, there is no way a British Government is going to want to sign a trade deal with china. Are there other parts of asia where the brits will try and do favourable deals . Of course they will, but its a rolling process. On the United States, its never been, other than a brief window before the midterms, when the republicans got hammered, there has never really been the likelihood of a big all encompassing trade deal with the us. You might get smaller sectoral deals and progress, but the us and the uk do loads of trade at the moment now, without an all encompassing trade deal, and with lots of sectoral agreements. So therell be more of that. I think its a process over the course of 10 or 20 years, there will be a huge adjustment post covid with people wanting manufacturing to be closer to markets. Thats going to take yea rs to resolve. And also the key thing with biden, is there going to be a reorganisation of the west around the democracy trying to resist china, organising around what Boris Johnson was talking about, the d10 notion. And will security and Intelligence Co operation against china and russia, against the autocracies, does it have a trade connotation as well . It might do. Jeffrey, a last word from you. I think that talking about australia, new zealand, even canada, they are really marginal, they are small economies. They are not going to affect the uk economy. The big deal is the one that has to be negotiated with the European Union. I think all the focus needs to be on that right now. We have less than a fortnight before everything changes. Either we go without a deal or we have a deal. Borisjohnson needs a deal. His Prime Ministership is rocky. The Coronavirus Vaccine has helped. He needs to show he can put this country on a stable course. Thank you all very much. Thats it for this week. Next week we will look back at the year that has been and i will be with you in a fortnight to look ahead to the start of 2021. However you are celebrating the festive season, have a good one. Hello. Sunday is said to be another sunshine and showers day. There could be the odd flash of lightning, the odd rumble of thunder here and there. Further east, ascending lines and eastern scotland, not as many showers. More generally, the chalice will tend to thin out a bit through the afternoon, with more dry weather, although another band of heavy downpours will push into Northern Ireland and the far west of scotland will also be pretty windy, with gusts of 40 50 miles an hour, 01 gusts of 40 50 miles an hour, ora gusts of 40 50 miles an hour, or a touch more in the most exposed spots. Just between 8 11 degrees. Sunday night, we see spells arrangement Northern Ireland, scotland, the far north of england, and at the same time cloud and rain gather across southern england, wales and up into the midlands. Turning mild through the night across southern turning mild through the night across southern areas. Turning mild through the night across southern areas. A bit chilly further north. A real splitting temperatures, actually, on monday. A chilly in northern areas. Much milder further south with some rain at times. It turns drier through the coming weeks, but colder in time for christmas. 00 29 26,111 2147483051 51 27,771 runa bit like 2147483051 51 27,771 4294966103 13 29,430 ross perot in 1992