Would a biden presidency mean for the us and the rest of the world . Mp macro is in pennsylvania, Bronwen Maddox in london, and in the studio oui maddox in london, and in the studio our World Affairs editorjohn simpson. Thank you forjoining me on this crucial weekend. The politics of every president ial election are divisive. In 1800, john adams accused Thomas Jefferson divisive. In 1800, john adams accused thomasjefferson of fathering a child with one of his slave staff members. Jefferson accused adams of being a traitor effectively. Nothing quite so egregious this time but america has rarely been so deeply divided. Between liberal america and conservative america, no bridge seems possible at the moment. The last two sessions of congress have been among the most partisan in the history of the american republic. In a system in which power is good, politics appears to be quite broken. Beginning in philadelphia, mp macro you are in the city in which in 1787 the meeting was held which led to the meeting was held which led to the american constitution. Do you think the constitution will hold up in the face of this unique challenge . Well, probably, but its a blueprint, the constitution. The constitution is a blueprint and it has survived 200 plus years. It needs reforming and rewriting, certain crucial areas, especially the idea of an electoral college. Joe biden wins 4 million more votes, people around the world would find it extraordinary to win 4 million more votes and still find yourself possibly not winning the election, although in all likelihood he will. I spent thursday about five blocks from where the constitution was written. People have the right to assemble, and they did. 0n written. People have the right to assemble, and they did. On one side of the street, and he trumped forces demanding every vote be counted, and on the other side, throw trumped forces demanding only votes count that arrived by tuesday. And t trump forces. The constitution will hold up, but it needs reform and in a society is divided as American Society is, there can be no progress, geeta. Congress is an absolute reflection of the deep divisions that have existed in america for decades and are stoked by partisan media. But that is another subject. Bronwen, we are still in a state of flux. All societies are divided, joe biden said as much in his speech on friday night, but these are so entrenched in the us. Ifjoe biden wins, he will have an extraordinary task ahead. Yes, and he has coronavirus oii ahead. Yes, and he has coronavirus on top of the divisions we have been talking about. One of the Big Questions for any modern country is how do you hold together all kinds of people . America has defined itself by doing just that, uniting them all with the idea of america. That is why that idea is being tested so much at the moment. In any country, you have a lot of people who see things differently. It seems a failure to many leaders to allow a country to break up into their constituent bits because those people dont want to live with the other. The challenge goes wider than america. But forjoe biden, he will have to try to reach across the red blue divide into the states. We are focusing on half a dozen states which are closely fought in this election, but many, many are almost entirely democrat or almost entirely republican, People Living very different lives with very, very different lives with very, very different visions of their country and what they want from their leader. So he has to do that. Coronavirus, even though it has been so coronavirus, even though it has been so partisan an issue in the state in a way it has not as much in britain, i wonder whether it gives him a chance . I wonder whether it gives him a chance . Joe i wonder whether it gives him a chance . Joe biden is coming in, promising to spend really quite a lot of money. That never goes down badly when trying to bring people onto your site. John simpson, how big a moment does this feel . It is no ordinary election. If it is the end of the trump era, it is the end ofa end of the trump era, it is the end of a very, very unique style of politics. Yes, very, very divisive style of politics too. We are not going to get that in the future, you see, withjoe going to get that in the future, you see, with joe biden, going to get that in the future, you see, withjoe biden, the immediate future. He is very much a kind of touchy feely kind of friendly kind of man. I first met him in the 19905, and then too he was talking about building bridges, trying to get relationships going with republicans. He wont be in a position to do an awful lot because he probably wont have the senate. So therefore, i think his whole attention will be on calming things down, quiet ending things down as best he can. And then after 2024, i think we will see a resurgence probably of much tougher, much more personalised government. Not on this moment, because im sure that until january Donald Trumps going to make an awful lot of noise, but when that noise stops and biden actually does become president , ithink noise stops and biden actually does become president , i think we will find a deliberate effort to quieten things down. It has not been called yet, but mp macro, sitting in philadelphia, does it feel possible that these divides can be healed . Mp macro. Michael goldfarb. No, they cant. Joe biden made two previous bids and failed miserably, but he is the emollient figure that the country needs, and when bronwen was talking about covid, she is right, because when donald trump is the leader will not acknowledge the dangers of covid, his followers, and they are followers, will not acknowledge it either. With a new president , that might change. The divisions in america have been stoked since the civil rights era, primarily by the Republican Party who peeled away the southern democratic vote by appealing frankly to their racist instincts and have built their own coalition on the idea that people dont need this, they dont need that, the government should step back and taxes should be cut. When you add in partisan media, which has been unbridled since the late 80s, you have tens of millions more than that, actually, about 45 of the country has a set of information that they believe, they believe, and we have to use that term, and the other 55 of the term dont even know what that information is, and they stare at each other across the street in total incomprehension. And with a fairamount of total incomprehension. And with a fair amount of hatred. Luckily, whatever violence there has been in this election has been extremely sporadic. And hopefully donald trump will show leadership instead ofjust acting like the leader, and exit gracefully. Bronwen, it would be totally wrong to write off what trump has achieved, he has galvanised politics, a massive turnout this week. And he has been seen to succeed got michael talks about racism, but there are legitimate fears all over the world about immigration, surely . Trump has tapped into blue fears, hopes and aspirations in a way that the Republican Party cannot now ignore. Absolutely, and nor does the Republican Party wants to ignore it. A lot of conservative commentators are saying correctly in my view that this was a good election for american conservatives. They have more seats in the house of representatives, it looks like they have held onto the senate for now anyway. And trump had a much better performance, given that people were predicting a blue wave. Meanwhile, trump has put in a lot of conservative judges which the conservatives are very pleased with, notjust in the supreme court. But the bigger themes that trump tackled, a lot of people out there are quietly glad that he took the argument to china, and to some extent to north korea, he asked nato allies to contribute more, the european ones and so on. And he articulated the concerns many people have about immigration. He made it more divisive than it needed to be, some of the policies were very, very ugly some of the policies were very, very to many some of the policies were very, very les some of the policies were very, very ugly to many peoples eyes. But he did put on the table and speak for a lot of people. The Republican Party is going to want to carry some of that forward, just without the unique aspects of trump himself, tweeting in capital letters, the denial of facts, the constant sense of theatre. John simpson, if President Trump is confirmed as having lost this election, which again we dont know yet, people have mentioned the possibility of him returning to fight again in 2024. |j suppose returning to fight again in 2024. suppose its possible, but a lot of things are going to happen in between then and now. One of those things may be that he will be open to criminal prosecution for various things that he has done. I imagine we will see a turning away from donald trump, except among his strongest followers. But by the Republican Party, large chunks of the Republican Party, its not the same in any way, but there was a kind of parallel movement after george w bush. The feeling that we have been down that road and it didnt really work out for us. Sol think we will feel the same, i think we will find the same after this, with donald trump. Yeah, you know, that was a special time. I mean, i fully agree with what bronwen says, hes changed the goalposts. Its not going to be easy for a democrat to come in and say, well, we shouldnt be so tough on china, after all, they have got their problems. You know, if germany doesnt spend too much on its defence, well, you know, theyve got other things to spend their money on. Its not going to be like that. Hes going to have to follow some, at least, of the trump lines. We will come onto the International Front in lines. We will come onto the internationalfront in a lines. We will come onto the International Front in a moment, lines. We will come onto the internationalfront in a moment, but john, we have seen you over the yea rs john, we have seen you over the years filming with a number of international dictators and authoritarian regimes, some people have talked about authoritarianism in the leadership style or donald trump, especially his behaviour in the last few days, not accepting the democratic vote of the public. How concerned to do you think people should be in america at the moment about how fragile their democracy might be . I dont think an american democracy is fragile. I think its a very noisy, very loud, a lot of angry voices. But i think, personally, its kind of worked its way through. Believe me, if it can digestive a man as extreme as donald trump. Iwas digestive a man as extreme as donald trump. I was trying to think, who is it that he reminds me of . I am afraid it is nicolae ceausescu in romania. All that pomposity. Finding it so difficult to believe that the tide has turned against him. If it can deal with him, sought him out, and put him to one side and carry on, ithink and put him to one side and carry on, i think american democracy is in remarkable shape. Fascinating comparison michael, in terms of what we might see from joe biden on the domestic front, is this going to look like barack 0bamas third term with a lot of the old staffs coming back in . Ijust want with a lot of the old staffs coming back in . I just want to pick up a point north authoritarianism. I thinkjohn is right, i have been in countries where if you tweeted, you would be in prison, in a basement cell being tortured. Talking about authoritarian desire on the part of donald, but he is really bad at it. It isnt built yet. There is that to consider. The wall isnt built yet. It is worth doing more reporting on, joe biden is a creature of the senate. Being a creature of the senate. Being a creature of the senate, it means he has a long standing relationship with Mitch Mcconnell, who is the leader of the senate. Senate republicans. He is someone who probably historians would say is one of the most important politicians of the first part of this century. And i would be very interested to know how closely biden worked with Mitch Mcconnell to ease passage, and it wasnt an easy passage, i was there, of 0bama care for example. They speak that kind of senate language. It isa speak that kind of senate language. It is a question of whether they Work Together or not. The amounts of money that have been thrown at the economy in america since the pandemic took root, you need co operation. And i think the lines of communication being open already between biden because of his decades in the senate in the mid 70s, and Mitch Mcconnell, its were thinking it will be ok. It will be noisy and there are always hardliners who say you cant give another penny to anyone, but i think he will say that as an improvement. In terms of other things, look, the reality of america, talking about government ability, has to do with the practicalities of being elected. Everyone in washington will tell you, you basically have 18 months to govern in any given year, because the house of representatives is re elected every two years. All those people just elected have about 18 months to work and then they have to go and raise money to get re elected. The president , joe biden, if he chooses to go for a second term, and he will be in his 80s when he finishes the first one, essentially after about two and half yea rs essentially after about two and half years he has to start raising money to campaign again. So i think there isa to campaign again. So i think there is a very tiny window, and i do think now that trump is going, there is the possibility of co operation, just to deal with the pandemic and then we will see what happens. Not confirmed, but bronwen, who do you think will be the key voices in a Joe Biden Administration . He will face pressure from the left as well, bernie sanders, those voices too . And he may not be able to get those people into his top team because of opposition from the senate. We will get an early test of the bipartisan spirit thatjoe get an early test of the bipartisan spirit that joe biden absolutely invoked, the old zenit if you like, as it used to be, which michael was just describing. We will get an early signal about whether or not thats going to hold good. Whether or not Mitch Mcconnell, as some people say, willjustjoin bipartisan memory motions when it suits him, joe biden will have all sorts of people he wants in his top team at the senate may not want him to have, some of the more left wing ones like Elizabeth Warren and bernie sanders. He will want to repeal or stop the overturning of environmental objections that President Trump was undergoing. He is going to want to rein back, again, the overturning of 0bama care. Even before it comes to spending any money, we will get a view of whether the senate is prepared to go along with him or it is going to act as a bloc, in which case its going to be very, very ha rd case its going to be very, very hard for him to do anything at home. Lets look a bit wider, because the Trump Presidency has been marked by a desire to withdraw the us won its commitments in the world. Does the prospect, as yet unconfirmed, of a biden presidency herald a return to a more International Role for the us . Biden has already said he would re enter the paris climate agreement that trump left, will he be less article of nato and hostile trading relations with china . Will he revive the Iran Nuclear Deal . His Vice PresidentKamala Harris has a heritage. Joe biden, with his Irish Catholic background, does it throw into jeopardy any hope of a us uk trade deal in the future . Many questions. John simpson, looking again ina questions. John simpson, looking again in a global sense, many liberals might breathe a sigh of relief and give joe liberals might breathe a sigh of relief and givejoe biden the benefit of the doubt. No administration has that long to get stuff through. Pollen policy is easier because the president can act unilaterally, effectively. Foreign policy. I imagine the first thing joe biden will do will be to speak to his partners across the board. I speak to his partners across the board. Lam speak to his partners across the board. I am sure speak to his partners across the board. Lam sure he speak to his partners across the board. I am sure he will try to do something with turkey. He will certainly try to do something with the western european elements in nato. Personally i believe, but i wouldnt know of course, no kind of evidence for it, but i personally believe that he wont be too interested in whats happening with brexit and the european union. The only way he can do that, really, is to act as a continuation of the whole good friday process, which is a benefice nt presence. Whole good friday process, which is a beneficent presence. Just outside the door orjust inside it. That proved so successful with his partial participation, in fact, that i think he will act towards britain, for instance, in a calming way. So you will find right across europe, most parts of the world, there will bea most parts of the world, there will be a huge sigh of relief. You know, from a president who could tweet something at two oclock in the morning which would throw everything out of the plan. Suddenly you are getting somebody whose trajectory you can follow and worked out. Michael goldfarb, china, the big question. The democrats have not com pletely question. The democrats have not completely dissented from the criticism of china by any stretch. No, the point that gladwin was making earlier in the programme, trump made the running here. John gwynne was making. He grasped the nettle, although some of the details we re nettle, although some of the details were not clear. What was the quid pro quo for the trade marked his daughter got . People have been wanting to know, how can you deal with china in terms of trade . Trademarks his daughter got. An extraordinary reliance on chinas manufacturing capacity to provide us with the consumer goods that we all enjoy at prices we can afford. So trump made the running there in pushing back and i dont think biden will publicly do anything else. What interests me most about his foreign policy, john touched on the nato duck, and he is right, they will be the first calls. The president is still seen as the leader of the free world. Will it be a difference of tone in leading with the authoritarian nationalist politicians who have been favoured by donald trump . What will be the approach of the United States to jebel scenario in brazil . If the us rejoins the paris accords and brazil continues to burn down the rainforest . Jair continues to burn down the rainforest . Jair bolsonaro in brazil. What do you think will be the biggest impact of a new president . Climate change and the deal with iran. The damaging issue of trump leaving the iran nuclear programme, i wonder if biden will get back into that . And climate change, what everyone is trying to do except the president of brazil. What about brexit, is it better or worse for us overall . Difficult, but wrecks it is difficult i am not sure the uk government has a solution to the irish border. Brexit is difficult. John, how momentous does it feel if there is a change . Absolutely huge, and a total reversal of four years of world history. John simpson, one when maddox and michael goldfarb, many thanks for your time on dateline london amid these tumultuous but still moving events. Nothing confirmed from the us as yet. Shaun ley is here next week, we might have a confirmed answer by then. Thanks for watching, goodbye for now. So we had a little mist and fog around this morning, but by now most of it should have cleared away, and weve got a fine day on the way with plenty of sunshine. Its also relatively mild, but tomorrow, a very different story. Well see a lot more cloud. And theres also some rain on the way. And in fact, the rain bearing cloud, here it is on the satellite picture. Its linked to a low pressure just to the southwest of our neighbourhood. And all of this cloud is heading in our direction. Its a bit of a gap in the clouds at the moment, but this cloud will be in place across the uk during the course of sunday. So enjoy todays sunshine. Now, the winds are also coming in from the south and pushing the colder air away to the north. So thats why the temperatures are actually relatively mild for the time of the year. So still one or two bits and pieces of mist and fog lingering through the early afternoon. But other than that, its a mostly sunny story. Theres just the outside chance of one or two spots of rain in the southwest of the country. How about the temperatures saturday afternoon . Its around 16 degrees, possibly, in the south of the uk. Around ten or so there for aberdeen. Now, tonight, the skies will be clear. So the temperatures going to drop, particularly across scotland. Therell be an early frost here, at least in one or two areas. But clouds are increasing. Also, those southerly winds continuing. So that means its going to be mild early on sunday morning, 12 degrees in plymouth and temperatures up to as high as eight, nine, ten degrees into northern england. Heres the weather map for sunday. You can see the weather fronts crossing the country here. We are expecting the rain to reach northern ireland, and also some western parts of the uk. A lot of cloud around, so even if you dont get the rain tomorrow, it is going to be a cloudier day. And the chances are that actually some of these clouds will break up and give way to some sunshine across the south. So 16 in london and cardiff, 13 14 there in liverpool. Heres the outlook into next week. We keep the southerly winds. You just get a suggestion of this current of air coming in from the southern climes. So keeping things relatively mild, but also weather fronts will be heading towards us, so at times there will be some rain. But these temperatures possibly peaking at around 17 degrees there in the south of the country, and even in belfast around the mid teens. But watch out some rain on the way, too. Thats it for me. This is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. Im geeta guru murthy. Joe biden says hes confident hes going to win the us president ial election and insists he will fight to ensure every vote is counted. The numbers tell us its clear, tell us a clear and convincing story were going to win this race. Joe biden is ahead in the four remaining states that will decide the outcome where final ballots are still being counted. Well bring you the latest in the race for the white house were live in washington shortly. A week into its second lockdown, france passes 60,000 coronavirus cases in a single day its highest one day total since the pandemic began. The uk government bans all visitors from denmark due to outbreaks of a mutated form of coronavirus in the countrys mink farms which has spread to humans