At a safe social distance is my colleague, clive myrie. Thank you all forjoining us today. As they stand, the polls suggest a comprehensive victory for biden in the Electoral College of Something Like 279 to 125. Can that really be right . Jeffrey . It is pretty clear that if the election was held today it would be right and it would be said as she said in your intro, it would be much stronger. If it was today, it would be reasonable to expect that biden would have a landslide in the complicated Electoral College which is required to win the presidency in the us. Thats 16 point pull you talk about, the cnn poll, is the largest gap but almost every poll in the last couple of weeks puts biden more than ten points ahead of trump. It is hard to see how trump can turn this around, in fact he has had one of the worst weeks of his presidency. The debate last week was a disaster for presidency. The debate last week was a disasterfor him, his bullying did not win him fans and the way he has handled the coronavirus, seen himself above Standard Health protocols and dismissing reasonable behaviours has alienated so many more people and in fact what we are seeing now on the pose is a larger spread than ever. Agnes, of course we have been burned by the polls before in the uk and the us and this is still very few barral. Could there be of the cliche of voters out there, there are still trump flags gcioss there, there are still trump flags across the us, it is dangerous to call it, isnt it . Yes, and the margin of error can go either way. It could be a joe biden landslide victory but it could be a narrow trump win. There are a few things that are very positive, for instance the number, it is almost 8 million of American Voters who have already cast their ballot by mail and that is the highest ever number at this point in the election cycle. That is one thing. There are little signs that on a personal level at least, joe biden is extremely popular with the very key part of the electorate, thatis the very key part of the electorate, that is to say the other 65. That was the case with trump against Hillary Clinton. We are likely to see joe Biden Victory, but we have to be very careful. Also, there is one thing i would like to do, because covering trump, as a political commentator, the last four years have felt so toxic and now it is literally toxic for people going to the white house, we have seen workers in their protective suits, sanitising the white house, if only they could sanitise the whole us elections and us politics. Ithink it would be good perhaps to project ourselves into the future and to think about the 4th of november and to see what a Trump Victory or a Biden Victory could actually mean for the rest of the world. Perhaps we will do that slightly later in the programme. Absolutely we will come back to that in a moment. I wa nt to come back to that in a moment. I want to bring in clive marie, obviously people could not believe that trump could win last time around and he did, he clearly wants to focus on the economy are part of that has been derailed by the pandemic, will his base give him some sympathy on that account . There isa some sympathy on that account . There is a solid 35 heading up to 40 who will back the president no matter what they see him as the man who has taken on the interest that they do not like, whether it is liberals or the left or in some cases african americans, foreigners, immigrants. But that is something that they value and donald trump reaches out to those people and he gives them what they want. This election is not over until it is over, there is no question about that and we have to remember that donald trump is an incredible campaigner. What he needs is the other side of the argument, those people who are soft biden supporters, they are not that enthused with him, a lot of people who are not, frankly, but they do see him obviously as an alternative to donald trump, but many are not enthused enough potentially to bother voting at all. What donald trump needs to do and we will see that with his white house appearance later today, we will see that next week with, he says, with his rallies which will kick off again in florida and we will see him beginning to reach out and i think he has probably learned some lessons, it might be tricky to say that, but i suspect he may have learned some lessons over the last few weeks that he has to go beyond his base, he has to start speaking in more emollient terms. Places like mid west, wisconsin, it is suggesting he is trying to shift back to promote his base. The base is the bedrock of any campaign. Now, there are many people who are in the Democratic Alliance who are in the Democratic Alliance who are in the Democratic Alliance who are not that keen on Kamala Harris because of her time as a prosecutor in california for instance, people who are not keen on joe biden because they do not see him as left wing enough. If they perhaps are the ones who do not come out and donald trump manages to secure out and donald trump manages to secure his base, then he has still got a fighting chance. It is fascinating, isnt it, agnes, the turnout question in america, as much as it dominates global interest, only about half the voters show up and that will be a key issue. If we look at the Vice President ial debate, how much does Kamala Harris bring people in . Given the age of the key candidates, the Vice President ial candidates match at this time. Kamala harris is a left of centre, she is a centrist and so isjoe biden, of centre, she is a centrist and so is joe biden, now of centre, she is a centrist and so isjoe biden, now as clive is saying, they are not left enough for some of the voters, then good luck to america. The turnout is key, absolutely. When you think, compared to the president ial elections in france were usually the turnout is in the high 805, of course it is not the same system, but still you would think that american 5hould the same system, but still you would think that american should care, especially after those last four year5. Let me be slightly years. Let me be slightly optimistic, i am years. Let me be slightly optimistic, lam hoping years. Let me be slightly optimistic, i am hoping that at least 60 , that would be good that the Americans Care to cast their ballots, because otherwise, the whole world is going to be impacted. Jeff i know you have been following the polls closely, and the overall numbers for the democrat party, does Kamala Harris bring in the african caribbean vote, that is a personal heritage, because there are other factors, the Indian Americans were quite pleased by the modi trump alliance, she is seen as a prosecutor, which is not helpful . would not want to overstate the role of the Vice President ial selection ina race of the Vice President ial selection in a race like this, this is really all about donald trump and i would disagree with clydes comments about trump reaching out, the base is of course critical, but trump continues to pander to his base and has done absolutely nothing to reach beyond and he does not have numbers with the base alone to win this election, he has got to get older people, women, university educated white men, those three constituencies are critical to win the selection for him, it is what he took from Hillary Clinton last time, numbers that worked in his favour. Everything he has done in the last two weeks last yea rs has has done in the last two weeks last years has alienated those groups and ido years has alienated those groups and i do not see any sign of him pivoting in these last 2a days before november three and putting himself in a position where he is going to suddenly get this stampede of people and as agnes pointed out, a number of people, a good percentage of people have already voted, but i think the sobering number in the poll is that nine out of ten americans have already made up of ten americans have already made up their mind and there are very few people now to be persuaded to change the outcome of this election. What we really need to look at and we should be careful about over estimating the accuracy of the polls, they were off in 2016 and i think it is fair to say, the social science of polling learns from its m ista kes science of polling learns from its mistakes and if you look at the key website, the key places that amassed this data, 538 dot com, there is a broad consensus of where these polls are taking, even if the factors that led to the mistakes of 2016 were put in place. This is really bidens to lose with the debate delayed, it is unclear how many debates we will have, how is trump going to get a broad message out to the American People that will actually change minds . It is pretty hard. If biden wins, by how much, if it is narrow, it can be very ugly, a replay of the florida recount but on a much more acrimonious scale. Agnes we will come back to you for a quick look on what this means, but clive, a right to reply there. Certainly those on the trump side would hope that he has learned some lessons over the la st has learned some lessons over the last three or four weeks. His poll numbers have sunk to some of the lowest levels of his presidency and it has been a challenging time for him and he is looking at the feet straight in the face. If there is ever going to be a change in his personality, it would have to be now andl personality, it would have to be now and i think his team have made it clear that he needs to be a bit more scripted, he needs to start reaching out, this is what they are telling him behind the scenes and perhaps covid has helped him realise that he could be leaving the white house in three or four months time and now is the time to try and make an effort to get those people outside the base that he frankly has not paid much attention to for so long. It does not look like he is changing, agnes, your thoughts and the rest of the world is watching this incredibly closely, what does france and europe want . If trump wins, we will see the us leaving nato, leaving south korea, afghanistan, china filling a much bigger role in the world and europe to fend for itself, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Ifjoe biden is elected, no matter how much we would like to go back to the world we knew format years ago, before covid and trump, this is not going to happen, even ifjoe biden is elected. Because American Society has changed in the world has changed. Of course joe biden will probably take the us back into the paris agreements on climate change, back into the deal, it is going to bea back into the deal, it is going to be a quite tough president in terms of trade relations with europe, with china and will not go back to the world order that we had set after the second world war. It is a new generation in power, joe biden is not that new generation but the American Administration is. I think it would be a mistake for europe to think, we are getting the america of before trump, no trump has changed the world and we will now have to ta ke the world and we will now have to take it from there. Fascinating. We will be talking more about that in the coming days. Well President Trump this week returned to the white house from being hospitalised with covid and told us dont let it dominate you, dont be afraid of it. Last month rishi sunak the uk chancellor told us to live without fear. Are they right and are they nodding towards or even partly responsible for the types of revolts we are seeing against restrictions. Agnes, is president macron facing revolts against the closure of cafes in paris or has he deflected blame by devolving power on this . First of all, i can reassure you that cafe culture is not dead in france and certainly not in paris, my local cafe this morning was open and actually, as you know, cafes can have their kitchen fully functioning and we can still open and we can ta ke and we can still open and we can take part in the tracing system now, which is probably a good thing, because we have found test and tracing pretty challenging, like in the uk. Yes, president macron is not oii the uk. Yes, president macron is not on the front line of covid any more, he is putting the Health Minister to actually be on that front line of covid, because president macron goes to lebanon and belarus and is very busy on the european front as well. He is leaving it to a man of the south west, who is going to deal with it and devolve powers. He is very legitimate when he tells marseille and other cities to actually come up with more restrictions. In order to fight covid. All in all, and strangely compared to what we have seen in madrid or even in berlin or in the uk, there is no rebellion as it were against the new restrictions and they very much, actually, there is a sense that we have to live with covid, to learn how to live with covid, to learn how to live with covid and that a few places have been made sacrosanct, they will be the last to close and that is the schools. I think in france, but also in europe, we have discovered that children need to go to school, they are not the super shredders that we thought and parents need their children to go to school in order for them to have some sanity and to be able to work and therefore sustain the economy. Agnes, i am just going to bring injeff, we need oui just going to bring injeff, we need our children to go to school, completely, jeff, i know you have been to canada this summer, who gets the blame for these revolts against the blame for these revolts against the restrictions, is that human nature or the culture of different cultures or as a Political Leadership . I think it is a fascinating question and the answer is all of the above. I think that one of the things that is very clear when you look at whether revolts are how they are happening is that a lack of clarity and consistency in messaging really undermines the authority of the government and that is clearly very apparent sitting here in london, where borisjohnson has really never really recovered from coronavirus himself and what it did to his government, saying that he has got his mojo back, i dont think anyone believes it. I dont even know, or believe what the rules are, i know i am not meant to go out with more than six people, i do not know how many people in an office are allowed to gather, the rules, it isa are allowed to gather, the rules, it is a quarantine re let for travellers, what countries are all on 01 travellers, what countries are all on or off. You see in france and canada, more consistent messaging and therefore more consistent compliance and adherence, there is a cultural factor, there compliance and adherence, there is a culturalfactor, there is no question, you see that for families in the us and in israel where we are seen in the us and in israel where we are seen revolts and uprisings against the government, the government does not have the moral authority over the government and it has been undermined by the mixed messaging and the very divided society there. It is all of the above and i think here in the uk, there is a real problem, the government does not have a handle on this and all the bluster and promises, the world beating this and 2000 tests a day, no one believes that any more and it is really impossible to feel that you should be a good citizen. I have travelled a number of times through the country and had to quarantine and they dont even check you at the border when you come in three he threw, it is astonishing, they give you all the right forms, are they going to make sure i do this or that . No, it does not happen and it really is a quarantine, it is a game they are plain of appearing to do they are plain of appearing to do the right thing in this country and people are onto it and they are making up their own rules. All governments politically are going to get punish when they face the election if they face a democratic vote, because handling this has been complex, they are balancing the economy and health, surely we all know the rules and we have to work it out for ourselves, we cannot keep blaming the authorities . Theres a certain amount of personal responsibility and a lot of governments are i suppose, erroneously, in some cases, expecting their citizens to do the right thing and where they believe that might not happen, there will be sanctions and we have seen that brought in in the uk, stiff fines if you are not quarantining when you should be and i suppose in defence of borisjohnson he should be and i suppose in defence of Boris Johnson he would argue and the government would argue that this is an unprecedented situation and governments all over the world are having trouble dealing with this. The plaudits being levelled at the germans and president macron in the la st germans and president macron in the last five or six months, spain, italy, we are seen an increase in the infections and all those countries now and obviously, compare britain to the united states, nowhere near as bad as that. We dont know whether we can totally trust the numbers. They have clamped down very hard, but india, the next second most populous country on earth, the numbers are skyrocketing. Governments around the world are having trouble dealing with an unprecedented event and they are having trouble finding their feet and it its taking time, but Boris Johnson and the government here would argue that they are now talking to local authorities more and have extended the furlough scheme, which during the summer saved hundreds of thousands ofjobs and there are things they have got right. It is now two thirds, not 80 but they have managed to keep businesses afloat and in some parts of the world, that has not happened. Clive, thank you. Finally in the desparate search for something to lighten the mood as winter sets in at least in the Northern Hemisphere what has caught your eye this week . Agnes, tell me, have you found something to cheer us all up . Yes, i have just returned from venice to look at the barrier that they have been building for decades, at least it feels like it and i dont know if you remember, there was so much corruption, people behind bars, but it worked. It was an historical day la st it worked. It was an historical day last weekend for venice, because the high tide was prevented to flood thatis high tide was prevented to flood that is and it was only a year ago that is and it was only a year ago that it was almost two metres high of water completely inundated the historical city. Yes, it is a huge relief, huge satisfaction, venice is going to be dry. Wonderful, can you compete with venice and paris within the space of a couple of days . compete with venice and paris within the space of a couple of days . I am going to go on a different direction andi going to go on a different direction and ijust going to go on a different direction and i just wanted going to go on a different direction and ijust wanted to say between the four of us, but i have to say, that i have to tip my hat to the producers of the Great British bake off and producers of the Great British bake off and i know it was bbc, now channel 4, but in the midst of this scale, there is something very comforting about the fact that they have managed to create a bubble to build a programme together and have the kind of delightfuljoy and i think the best of british game and ship coming through, it is not a vicious nasty competitive show, it is just good wholesome fun and it is done with a sense of humour. There is something really reassuring that you can turn on your television once a week right now and see this slightly inane but playful and really distracting tv show continue as it has for the last decade. That is lovely, lovely to hear. My brother is a channel 4 person, you are allowed to plug them. Clive, what has put a smile on your face . totally agree with that, great bbc programme completely necked by channel 4, but that is how it happens. I will go with the queens birthday honours list, usually you get political flunkies, you get donors, you get the flunkies of the political world who get these goings and this year, because of covid, it is nurses, social workers and people like Marcus Rashford who managed to convince the government to change policy and continue Free School Meals for 1. 3 million children. This is the best birthday honours list for a long time. Wonderful to hear that, clive, i completely agree. Agnes we were talking earlier about music and i personally am missing seen music and i personally am missing seen live opera and i was thrilled to see the ballet start on stage at the Royal Opera House and you are telling me that in france they have managed to keep live arts performances alive a bit more. That is what i was going to say, the second is what i was going to say, the second sacrosanct is what i was going to say, the second sacrosanct places in france apart from the schools in the last to close and in a massive lockdown it as theatres, museums, concert halls and cinemas, because it is places where we do not talk, so we do not spread the virus so much, it is also so vital. Films, literature, also music is what has sustained most of us during the lockdown. We need to have the Creative Industries and france is doing it, italy, germany, but i wish the uk was supporting its artists more, because we need them desperately. Jeff, one live thing you would like to see . would love to go back to live theatre, i agree. Would love to go back to live theatre, iagree. I live would love to go back to live theatre, i agree. I live in london, this is the capital, the World Capital of great theatre, and it pains me and i think agnes is right. The hundreds of thousands of people whose livelihoods depend on this and the skill set that has been built up over generations, that are just languishing right now, it is devastating and it is not all going to come back and we have got to find ways to bring it back. If we can go to pubs and sit in a pub in london, why cant we sit in a theatre, there has to be a way to do this. I fear for what will happen if this goes to next summer. I went to Covent Garden for my last live thing and i am so glad i got to that before it all shut down. Thanks so much to all three of my guests this week agnes poirer, jeffrey kofman, and clive myrie. Shaun is here next week,see you soon, bye for now. Hello there. It is a saturday of sunny spells and scattered showers, but feeling quite cool with that, due to a brisk north west wind. For some of us this morning, it has been a beautiful start, but the shower clouds are already starting to gather, as you can as you can see in bude in cornwall and some of those showers are really quite intense. This has been the story over the last few hours, rain moving out of scotland, northern ireland, pushing into Northern England and north wales. It is this weather front here, now the rain will start to weaken into showers, but some of those showers really still quite intense and plenty of isobars coming from a north westerly direction. A brisk wind driving some showers throughout the day across parts of scotland, as our weather front sinks its way south, we will have some sharper showers, with hail and thunder across england and wales. Sandwiched in between the two, there could be some dryer interludes, particularly for southern scotland, but not feeling very warm out there for the time of year, temperatures perhaps peaking through the afternoon at 10 14. Now, through this evening we will continue to see some showers and some of them quite heavy across england and wales for a time, they will gradually ease as we go through the night and with some clear skies and slightly lighter whence, those temperatures are going to fall away quite sharply, widely single figures in towns and city centres, so that means in more rural spots, we could see low single figures first thing for sunday morning, but it should be a sparkling start. Lots of sunshine around on sunday, lighter winds as well. Just the risk of some sharper showers drifting down off the north sea affecting the east coast, so further west you will see the best of the drier weather, the sunshine as well, 10 15 afternoon highs on sunday. Unfortunately there is a risk of more rain around as we move into monday, toppling across that high pressure, so we are going to see more wet weather moving in and once again the isobars squeezing together, still from a north westerly direction, so those temperatures are not going to alter that much and if you are caught under the cloud, with the rain and the wind, those temperatures may well struggle to climb into double figures, but we could see highs generally on monday of 10 14, brightening up gradually into scotland and northern ireland. Now, it does look as though we could continue to see some wetter weather in the south tuesday into wednesday slowly drying up from the north. Take care. This is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. Boris johnson will announce new measures on monday to tackle coronavirus in england, with some areas of the north warned they are likely to face tougher restrictions. Wearing a face mask in all work places and outdoors should be compulsory, says the british medical association. Donald trump will return to the campaign trail later with a speech at the white house but wont confirm if hes covid free. Armenia and azerbaijan agree to a humanitarian ceasefire, following two weeks of intense fighting over the disputed territory of nagorno karabakh. Recognition for the uks un sung heroes of the pandemic as hundreds of key workers and volunteers are awarded in the delayed queens birthday honours. And england and Manchester United footballer Marcus Rashford gets an mbe for his work on Free School Meals and says hell