The day. A very muggy night. 18 in london, the mid teens expected in scotland. Showers tomorrow, possibility of thunderstorms again. The heaviest across more southern areas. A little brightness possible 110w areas. A little brightness possible now and then but on the whole lot of cloud across the uk. Hello and welcome to dateline. This week. Breakthrough or betrayal in the middle east . Recession hits borisjohnsons promise of a decade of prosperity. And that little girl was me the bussed to School Daughter ofjamaican and indian immigrants becomes only the 11th woman ever on a us president ial ticket. My guests on socially distanced screens are mina al oraibi, editor of the national, a news service for the middle east. And Michael Goldfarb of the podcast frdh or first rough draft of history. And here in the studio the bbcs Business Editor simonjack. Welcome to you all. Now, President Trump called it a historic Peace Agreement between two great friends of the United States. Palestinians said their friends had sold them out. Iran has called it a huge mistake. The deal between israel and the United Arab Emirates will make the uae only the third arab state to have full diplomatic ties with israel. In return, israel has agreed to suspend annexation of parts of the occupied west bank. Mina, this is one to start you off with. Is this a case of the uae recognising the reality that was already there . In some ways, yes. There are realities on the ground but never also a very important moment after the fear of annexation only a few weeks ago. Larger occupation of palestine but the realities on the ground and in 2020 different from 1967 and the palestinians have slowly been losing land and the israelis have been trying to create the realities on the ground and have been made for all intents and purposes a point wanting to annex a new london territories in july. Wanting to annex a new london territories injuly. The uae put out both a private and also a very public stance calling on israelis not to do so. The israeli ambassador to the us. First time you had a golf official speak directly to the israeli people and said to them there are two routes you can go. We can have a route of relationship, we can have a route of relationship, we can build towards police, or we can have annexation and further disruption in the region and that will complicate matters beyond the possibility of ever having a palestinian state and it seems that the israelis he did that word so from then we saw the exhilaration coming to this point which was the announcement and the trilateral call between us president donald trump,. And the israeli Prime Minister. So in some ways the uae itself has had some behind the scenes discussion with the israelis and important collaboration on certain issues including covid 19 that sees the whole world is needed to come together and try to come to solutions to deal with the pandemic but it is also an important point that the annexation was a very serious threat and while it is a suspension, this is a processjust like the process towards establishment of the bilateral relations between the uae and israel is going to be a process, so as a matter of suspending annexation, so it is important to see it in that context. Michael, i want it is important to see it in that context. Michael, iwant to it is important to see it in that context. Michael, i want to ask you whether you agree that the. Has heeded israels abuse on annexation. Obviously the israeli Prime Minister has had something to say about annexation. Are they clear or is it clear what they amount to . Im not sure about that. I think there are two more parts that we will come unto but the first is of course the Trump Administration in washington and washington is always a major player and intercessor between israel and its neighbours. The other player as a van and we will get to that. What happened was, to a certain degree this comes after israeli domestic politics. People who Pay Attention will know that they have already had three elections in i think under 12 months. Bibi netanyahu has had so many escapes and has been predicted to lose and he doesnt and he always ends up being the person that hobbles together the coalition that governs and it is very interesting that even now he is in a coalition and it is agreed that. Leads the other large percy and the coalition will succeed him as Prime Minister yet he didnt bother to tell. A thing about these negotiations. The annexation was a promise to the right wing of israeli politics. Cobbles together the coalition, leads the other large party. Ness and yancey made a promise to the Prime Minister which is important because he is being investigated for i guess fraud and might face charges when he left office. This met with total disapproval from the Trump Administration and they worked very ha rd administration and they worked very hard to find a way to walk israel back from this and at this point, the United Arab Emirates ambassador to washington played a key role meeting withjavid cush, the president s son in law who was the chief adviser on middle east matters and we end up where we are today with his unexpected announcement that there would be this diplomatic relations for the first time between the uae and israel but now we come to iran quickly, which is the relationship between the uae and israel was. Quietly relationship between the uae and israelwas. Quietly going relationship between the uae and israel was. Quietly going on. They are part of the anti iranian alliance. In entente cordiality is being built quietly between certain arab states because they fear iranian influence in libya and in lebanon. We will come back to that in a second. While we are dealing with these three players in the negotiation, we talked about the politics and the economics of it but what about the economics of it but what about the economics of it but what about the economics of it, what are the players stand to gain . There is almost an even could or economic angle of leslies deals to get done. Some would say. Looking at the economic interest the uae wants to bea economic interest the uae wants to be a major player economically in the region and what this does is it gives its access to the Israeli Technology base, the universities of israel, 15 of students at israeli universities are arab, they have got a sum of the best technology out there and an opportunity for them to and diversify the economy and for israel you have a less interruptible supply of oil because a lot of their oil comes via back in via turkey, and also you have got a big new defence customer for the us, one of the biggest trade, one of the biggest businesses in this conflict and area is of course arms and they have already got a half 1 billion order for some anti mine vehicles and there is a prospect that they could sell f 35, which is the most expensive defence projects in World History and they want to sell as many of those as they can, which they cant really sell to the uae because they have got this gentleman is agreement with israel that they will only sell then the top notch stuff and not their neighbours but this possibly gives them the opportunity to increase that trade. What more can they do to push back to prevent other arab states following the eus example . The palestinians are in a difficult position and notjust because of the uae. The situation on the ground in palestine is difficult, the difficulties politically, economically and so forth. The palestinian leadership at this point should be looking at ways to take advantage of this time that has been created to halt the annexation, and try to find ways to manoeuvre, to gain some momentum, and that is what the end of 80s have said that they wa nt to the end of 80s have said that they want to get out of this, emirates. Trying to push back doesnt really win the palestinians anything on the vine in one of the things they should be building on is the status of eastjerusalem. They uae like the rest of the arab league continues to hold onto the status of a palestinian state to protect the status of a stewing eastjerusalem. That wont help the palestinian cause which i think it is important also michael spoke about the sort of alliance that is in built in the region when it comes to iran. It is really not just about region when it comes to iran. It is really notjust about iran. The region is going through so much turmoil and in some ways, however palestinians trying to say we want to find a way to get out from the typical corner that the occupation has put them in . It is notjust about iran, it is about the different voices in the region that try to use the palestinian cause of their own benefit. Difficult canna. We have seen the turks say that they want to pull their ambassadorfrom that they want to pull their ambassador from the uae even though turkeys have had tired with israel since 1919 and is the largest muslim majority Country Trading with israel so majority Country Trading with israel so instead of helping their palestinians they are trying to just put up metternich without in reality cutting off their title with israel. The one that this is a serious mistake, is there any way that they can make that a self fulfilling prophecy. Youre sitting there in the uae yourself, is that something that the in the rates are concerned about . The iranians are constantly threatening and they have their prospects to put their realities of what the region should be. I dont think this is actually a threat that should be of concern but what is concern is that you do have malicious proxies that are waging civil strife in iraq and syria, have created all sorts of havoc in lebanon and dont serve the palestinian cause in any way but actually have hurt other arab countries along the way. Mike, just a quick outlook for me on the electoral advantage or otherwise from john donald trump. He promised when he came into office that he would get deals in north korea, deals with iran, this is a dealfrom the man that claims to be a proponent of the art of the deal and how much will it matter to him in november . It wont make any difference, in novemberand i am reminded of something that mina told me in 2017 when he took older. He will get on really well with the saudi rulers and etc because he deals through family which is the way the monarchy is in arabia like to deal. Mina is right, he deals the family and it is working on him. Thank you for being concise on that point because we now on to economics and at the start of the year Boris Johnson predicted an exhilarating decade for the ta of growth, and opportunity but within six months the pandemic has pushed the uk into the pandemic has pushed the uk into the deepest recession on record for the deepest recession on record for the Prime Minister now insist hard times are here. He promises to leave nobody without help. Why is the uk at the back of the european pack . Any country in the developed world. One of them is the developed world. One of them is the fact that the uk economy is incredibly focused on services and services, that face to face stuff whether it is hairdressing, restaurant, hospitality, leisure, other stuff that makes up the uk economy, that has been very hard hit, the pandemic is not allowed that part of the economy to operate it anywhere near its full capacity. Services 80 , manufacturing 10 of the economy but in germany manufacturing makes up 30 of their gdp. Others say that the lockdown came a bit late in the uk even though they had knowledge of it. What happened now is that the chancellor is playing i dont know if you remember the game coupling, do you remember that . If you remember the game coupling, do you rememberthat . When if you remember the game coupling, do you remember that . When you have all the marbles there at the top and all the marbles there at the top and all the marbles there at the top and all the subtle struts here. What he is trying to do now with a very generous, very big programmer of Government Spending and protection forjobs, he has now got to try to carefully remove the supports without all the marbles crashing down. For some people, his plan is not nearly delicate enough. He plans to remove the furlough scheme which has supported 9. 5 millionjobs. Uniformly across the economy by the end of october and there are some businesses and some industries which are not going to be anywhere near operating at full capacity by that, and some people are saying that is just too blunt. I mentioned that the chancellor said he is going to leave no one without hope or opportunity because this is a government that came in at the end of last year promising to level up social mobility. Is that just promising to level up social mobility. Is thatjust braved all, is there a way that he can this game . Look, he is writing some very big checks. Uk borrowed 300 billion and perhaps even £400 billion this year and and perhaps even £400 billion this yearand a and perhaps even £400 billion this year and a lot of that priority will be spent on areas where they won votes in traditionally labour seats, but i think what is going to happen is you have got a situation where what is going to emerge from this is a kind of state sponsored capitalism of the kind that you would not have. Borisjohnson would not have been dreaming of when he first got the keys to number ten. I think you will see that reflected across the best of global economy. Where this capitalism usually let it do its job, let all these companies go bust and see what goes in its place, i think you will see much more state intervention. Michael, let us take it to the us because state sponsored capitalism is also in the air there, the economy has fallen by less than the economy has fallen by less than the uk but of course donald trump wa nted the uk but of course donald trump wanted to go into november with evolving economy. How good are his chances of an economic recovery by november . I would say they are pretty small. It is interesting that gdp has fallen by about half of what is to has fallen in the uk and there are reasons for this and simon will have better details than i do but it isa have better details than i do but it is a more diverse economy but more importantly, we never shut down nationally, i mean, there have been tighter restrictions in one part of the country of another but the economy takes over more, people got on and flew to business meetings, you know, without protection, and the downside of that of that is that the downside of that of that is that the us never flatten the curve on covid, so we are still having outbreaks all over and eventually that will have an impact on the economy, and it will be still going on in november, when people go to the polls, but the whole idea of using gdp of the measure at this moment strikes me is probably not being helpful, because going back to 2008, when we had the clash, gdp re cove red 2008, when we had the clash, gdp recovered across the developed world much faster than employment. The crash. People were onlyjust getting back to earning the same amount of money on average in america that they were earning in 2008 just before covid hit. Now we have the situation in the us where the Unemployment Rate is in double digits, and unlike the uk, there was no furlough scheme. There was a little extra top up from the federal government to states in unemployment checks, but that stopped this week, and an attempt to find more emergency funding for that met with the typical congressional response, they went on summer holiday, so a lot of people are going to see their unemployment checks reduced by several hundred dollars a week. All of this adds up to gdp going down but more importantly, and the reason why we should look at employment before anything but clearly that it was before anything but clearly that it was the shattering of employment norms in 2008 which led to the political response in the United States that culminated in donald trump, and in this country, in brexit, where a lot of people you know just so brexit, where a lot of people you knowjust so dissatisfied with the status of their lives they are willing to go for a line in their political activity willing to go for a line in their political activity a willing to go for a line in their political activity a populist line in their Political Activities andi line in their Political Activities and i think that is what we have to look for lovers in gdp because gdp will recover, it will recover long before the vast majoritys economic prospects will cover in the us and the uk. Mina, we have looked at the us in the uk, the gulf is a good place from which to observe the globe on trade and economic integration. How does it look from there . Well, this year has had the double whammy of the slump in oil prices at the beginning of the year and a very erratic oil market and then of course we had to covid 19. The gulf countries at the Oil Producing countries and the situation is different from those that are not Oil Producing. In the gulf, particularly the two largest economies, saudi arabia and uae there was an early lockdown in march and april and may and they are now slowly emerging from those lockdowns and in the uae you have some cautious optimism for the rest of the year and what it will look like. The problem and i completely agree with michael here is the issue of unemployment in other parts of the arab world and particularly for those who rely on daily wages and lost those day wages with covid 19 lockdowns but also with the concerns that there will be second and third waves. That is where the concern is. But in the gulf the opec plus deal has helped maintain oil prices and saying they are steady and you can that. Is continuing to be strong and pumping some of the money into the economy but the concern is for other countries in the arab world is already fragile and this has been a real blow to them. Minas points is really true to many countries, strict lockdowns are unsustainable, containment is the name of the game but it has real economic applications. A lot of people have been disagreeing about what the recovery would be, one of the senior economics of the bank of england is expected in the shape recovery, others say that when you go this far down you are bound to go back pretty quick, 9 increase from may tojune, so you have a back up already, it is this next bit, and what we dont know is of the 8 Million People that are now on fellow, there were 9. 6 and they are coming down because of those people i had it twice, how many of those people are unemployed butjust dont know many of those people are unemployed but just dont know it yet, so that will be the thing and mina and michael talking about jobs, it will be aboutjobs michael talking about jobs, it will be about jobs but economically it will be about how much demand is going to be lost from the economy as people find themselves without a job. That is the unknown here. This next bit is notjust economic, this next bit is notjust economic, this next bit is also political. No confetti, balloons or big hats. The democrats will hold their 2020 National Convention virtually, but the line up this week includes many of the partys big names and barack obama has already waded into the Election Campaign by accusing President Trump of attempting to kneecap the us Postal Service. Joe biden talks of an assault on democracy. Michael, were going to have to keep this fairly concise all three of you because we have only got a few minutes left on the programme but tell us how serious this row on the Postal Service is in the run up to november. Well, actually, it is very, very serious. Postal voting was very, very serious. Postal voting was going to be an issue anyway, donald trump and politicise it before covid hit. Now you have got this pandemic it might actually be an unhealthy thing to go into a crowded Polling Centre in your local neighbourhood and vote, people would like to vote by mail, and clearly the government is making it. More difficult. Overnight there were reports of postboxes being removed from the street in montana as a way of preventing people from voting. I applied for my postal ballots this week and, you know, i got an e mail back saying they had accepted it and you will get your full ballot in september, late september, early october, and then then this morning, you know, you read that well you need to get your ballots and perhaps a month beforehand. Well that is a month before election day and i am mailing for the uk so it is a very nervous making thing and on top of that state usually dont know how to count postal ballots anyway. I mean, pennsylvania has. To important swing states in 2018 midterms, one state had about 4 of ballots sent in by post, the other was. By about 6 by post. What is going to happen if they get 30 or 40 by post . This is good to be a huge, huge problem on the fence will government. Im just huge problem on the fence will government. Imjust going huge problem on the fence will government. Im just going to interval because so short of time but we definitely got the message from you, it really matters and we need to watch it. Secondly, kamala harris, i mentioned him at the top, the little girl bus to school, the child of immigrants, for ever woman on the us president ial ballot. Trump is calling her phony kamal. What is less about in bullets to . If joe biden pick the man he would be calling the manner a name as well. He just calls people names and it is pa rt of he just calls people names and it is part of his van. Camel harris is the best person in my opinion thatjoe biden could have made she is a Strong Influence influential senator and people have their decisions by large and what she does is show up one constituency advocate and ability he drifted away from the party in 2016 who came out in numbers above a cabana and less so for Hillary Clinton and more importantly women who will all remember how she questioned Brett Cavanagh remember how she questioned brett cava nagh who was remember how she questioned Brett Cavanagh who was one of the turning points of the Trump Administration so it isa points of the Trump Administration so it is a strong pick and whatever donald trump chooses to call her, she shows up the democratic book and thatis she shows up the democratic book and that is the most important things you can possibly do. Mina, how does it look the president ial campaign. Obviously it is huge amounts at sta ke for obviously it is huge amounts at stake for everybody in the world in the us president ial election. How is it seen from the uae . That is interest of causing what these elections will bring about and i will speak here is an iraqi actually because biden is remembered at by iraqis as somebody who as senator propose the biden plan which was to carve up iraq based on very crude sectarian and many iraqis had not forgotten that so there is a concern in iraq and other parts of the that that sort of Foreign Policy that looks very crudely on sectarian and ethnic decisions coming with a positive full biden administration. But the flip side, donald trump has been very unpredictable so for many people it is almost equal what happens because we deal with the ramifications of what American Voters decide. Mina, michael and simon thank you all so much. Simon you are going to have to get your say on the us president ial election next time. Whoever wins, the Biggest Issue they are going to have to face as the economic cold war between the us and china. Policy and that is something that will some up the difference between the two. Thanks to something that up so briefly. Goodbye for now. We had the heatwave and now it is cloud and drizzle in the odd rumble of thunder in the distance and that is what we have now got for at least 24 hours and possibly the next few days, very sort of cloudy, rainy, showery and thundery weather and the humid air is still coming in from the south. It is swelling around an area of low pressure. Here is a closer look and you see that moisture in the cloud coming in from the south and basically this area, this bank of cloud is going to be stuck across much of central and southern britain through the rest of saturday and within it there is a loss of drizzle and rain at times but also the possibility of thunderstorms. Now, the temperatures are still managing to nudge up into the low 20s where the cloud is but it is particularly cool on the north sea coast because here we also have the mist rolling off the north sea, the mist rolling off the north sea, the chilly it missed without breeze coming off the east. This is what it looks like at the end of the night on sunday, 17 degrees, so thats humid air has not come, it is actually an the mid teens across the north of the country as well as overnight. So here is sundays Weather Forecast and you know what the blobs of blooming. That is rain and again the potential for thunderstorms during the course of sunday and even if you dont get. It will be a mostly cloudy day again with bits and pieces of drizzle here and there. Temperatures around about 23 degrees, just the possibility of a little bit more sunshine may be developing across southern areas. Sunday into monday the low pressure with all the cloud and that potentially thunder this weather is still very much with us and in fact look at the blobs of blue that across Northern Areas of the country as well, glasgow and edinburgh getting some rain, belfast two, take a look at these here because the midlands and wales so again all of this could be thundery as this slow moving airof this could be thundery as this slow moving air of low pressure which has decided to pack itself over and still churns away and drives our weather. Not much change expected through the first half of the week before this big low pressure comes our way, which is expected to bring some unsettled conditions towards the end of the week and into the weekend, but as far as the week ahead is concerned, it is looking very changeable on the weather front. This is bbc news with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. Prince charles leads commemorations at the National Memorial arboretum to mark the 75th anniversary of vj day the day World War Two ended with victory over japan. They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old. The uk Prime Minister, borisjohnson, thanked those