Iran flatly denied reports that its air defences, fearing a us assault, had shot it down by mistake. Given there was so much apparent evidence to the contrary, why did the iranians stick to their guns until the decision, suddenly over the weekend, that they were responsible . And what was the reason for their change of heart . If you follow the events, the situation has been so fluid, that from one side, they have had to deal with the europeans and the nuclear negotiations, from another side, aboutjoining the anti Money Laundering and Anti Terrorism watchdog, super watchdog, and then mr soleimani was assassinated, struck off, neutralise, whatever you would like to use it, and it took. It was a moment of decision, how to react. Whether to go as the Supreme Leader had asked, for vengeance and rage, oi had asked, for vengeance and rage, or we suddenly saw that they took a measured response, they had advised and informed americans where they would be attacking. So there was no danger of any people being killed . Yes, so they behaved reasonably. When this aeroplane was shot, it was shotin when this aeroplane was shot, it was shot ina when this aeroplane was shot, it was shot in a very different situation, it exposed a lot of weaknesses of decision making, planning and prioritising. In one instance, when it was shot down within a few hours, when the airspace had been closed for the missiles to strike the american targets. The question remains, when all flights were shot down were cancelled, why did this one take off . And so come the next thing they did, instead of finding out the reason, what caused this, because they were telling us from inside i ran, the officials, that it was a malfunction of the plane itself, then we see them sending trucks and tractors. Bulldozers. Bulldozers, clearing up the space. The World International community could see on camera what was happening. Did it ultimately matter to them, what britons and americans and others thought . Or did it matter more what the reaction was in iran . We had at the street protests against the government before the soleimani case, where they worried about how iranians were responding to this apparent cover up . Obviously, because as we know, since 2017, there have been protests, in november, the death toll has gone up. It is between 400 to 1000, 5000 as the americans have said. However, in the funeral of mr soleimani, a funeral they had planned, over 50 people died, hundreds got injured, they couldnt even get a funeral right. And then, this plane. They are an automatic reaction action. This has resonance for you, doesnt it . It does. It brought back memories of a similar incident with americans, which might explain why President Trump wasnt quite so bullish this week and was willing to concede that this could have been a terrible mistake. Absolutely, you have expected in this situation that the us would go bang to rights, you know, weve got you, a shocking incident. Except that in 1988, the uss vincennes, an american warship was shot down shot down an iranian airbus. What i find interesting about bettys episodes, which are both awful, is that in both cases, the military perpetrators first instinct is to cover up. Perpetrators first instinct is to cover up. That was also true of the united states. The vincennes story, was that this airliner, which was on a routine path and transmitting on a civilian channel, they had a whole story about how it had altered its trajectory, it wasnt climbing, it was diving, therefore they mistook it foran was diving, therefore they mistook it for an attack. None of that was true. It took the americans eight years to pay compensation, which only happened at an International Tribunal in the hague, as a result ofa tribunal in the hague, as a result of a case. They never acknowledged responsibility, although, Ronald Reagan did send regrets. When you look at the iranian behaviour in this and you add to the chaos and add the tensions that arise in any war zone and the kind of decisions that ground units make, or in this case, American Ship units make, in moments of tension, they are split second decisions. One of the american enquiries into the uss vincennes, which received a heroes welcome when it returned to san francisco, and all the crew and captain were subsequently decorated, so captain were subsequently decorated, so if we are looking at responsibility, again, there are complicated stories here. One of the american conclusions was that in times of tension, relatively highly changed groups of men go into a posture that they stop receiving signals, contradictory signals, and thatis signals, contradictory signals, and that is something that happens. That isa that is something that happens. That is a very cautionary warning, because in some ways, politicians are in danger of that a few days ago, that they had gone into a mentality of conflict, and we are in danger of that spiralling out. There is one small detail, and i think we need to wait for the detail that comes out of the enquiry, there is the suggestion that this plane had a radar fault a couple of days before and may have turned back towards the airport before it was hit. That kind of change in posture would have triggered alarm in a ground crew. They would have said, hang on, what is it doing . And that could have been why. Interesting that the iranian president immediately said, this is not only unacceptable, it is inexcusable. The language, is there opportunism for the regime to say, soleimani, the Iranian Security force and revolutionary guard, now we can seize initiative from them . We have to address these issues now from the point of view of editors and look at the statements, i do that with harry and meghan and do it with the iranian president. He uses the term unforgivable, which the International Community because this incident unforgivable, so as a result of that, the back side of this admission is that he understands the country is in the dock. From that point of view, you dock. From that point of view, you do everything you can to de escalate the battle and language and what have you. However tragic this event is, it might lead to a general coming to your senses on all sides. Nobody wins in this continued stand off, and we have to make a positive out of a negative incident. Now, the positive would be some kind of progress on the iran nuclear deal, which President Trump had withdrawn from, which in theory still exists and the iranians have said, we are going to stop observing. But which, potentially, is still alive, even if it is only alive in them. Is there an opportunity for talks . Sure. What is extraordinary about the events since new years day in this region is how fast things change and how in a moment, what we think is the course, can be altered so glaringly. The killing of soleimani was itself an audacious act. It exposed firstly that donald trump is not obama or george bush, and that the iranians understand that as much as they want vengeance, understand that as much as they want vengeance, he is so unpredictable that you do so at your peril. And so, the chess game is no longer what it used to be and i think the iranians, ina it used to be and i think the iranians, in a measured response, understood that this isnt quite an obama or george bush diplomacy act, and we better be careful. I think we saw, in the shooting down of the ukrainianjetliner, saw, in the shooting down of the ukrainian jetliner, that firstly, the overstated competence of the iranian military. Military depends on command control, and this is clearly a horrific failure of communication, some young men, probably, who fired a missile press the button at the wrong time. That is just the button at the wrong time. That isjust a the button at the wrong time. That is just a symptom of a terribly run army. It happened to the americans, it can happen to anyone, it is true. But it does suggest that iran is not quite as powerful and as fearsome as they want us to believe. I think for rohani, what it has done, he went through, as you noted, he has had a lot of unrest. The Soleimani Killing was this extraordinary moment for him to unite people behind him, and yet, all of that evaporated with the shooting down of the jetliner. And what effect does the deaths of soleimani have on the prospect of talks . Some people think, well, the americans killed this guy, there is no way the iranians will talk to them. But his removal, does it have a Positive Side from the point of view of the future relationship . think so, i think it was because he was the biggest plug for iran approving certain measures, such as joining the anti Money Laundering and anti Drug Trafficking watchdog. They had given a run six extensions. They had given a run six extensions. The next extension is that the deadline is very 2020. And the Expediency Council and the voices from inside the Expediency Council is saying that the rigc are the biggest block to this approval. But at the same time, looking ahead, following soleimanis death, the Iranian Parliament passed a bill allocating 200 million to the brigade. It is not as if with soleimani gone, the threat has been completely neutralised, but it is worth. Iran has to show a series of goodwill. The way you explained it speaks of a continuing rift within the establishment in iran, the revolutionary guards and the government proper. I also like what was said about the unpredictability of the american president. It is the first time i have heard anyone praising the applicability as a likely reason as to why the iranians become a more careful. That is not something we ever expected donald trump to be. Maybe with soleimani gone, you have less control, because there will be units which regard their mission as taking revenge. That is one threat, actually, and i think most of russia, britain, the us, they are worried about this. They were worried at the time of a sum of bin ladens death. With this replicate itself in the iranian model . We need to wait and see. Osama bin laden. Is there anyone in the Us Administration that will spot this opening and be able to persuade . We are in an election year. If you follow the pundits, they will tell you that all the adults have left the white house. But clearly, there are people moderating donald trump, because the softening that we saw of the rhetoric over the last number of days reflect that somebody is getting to him and saying, wait a minute, do you really want to. This is a guy who is an isolationist and doesnt want america to reach overseas, and yet, he has provoked what could potentially be a global conflict. Now he has pulled back. Someone is getting to him, it is interesting, i guess, and in time, we will understand the dynamics. Hours after the duke and duchess of sussex surprised the world as well as the rest of the royal family with wednesdays statement that they were seeking a new life in the new world, as previous generations of royals would have known it unflattering comparisons were being drawn between Meghan Markle, the duchess, and wallis simpson. Another american divorcee, marrying a prince, but dividing britains ruling family. The spirited, talented celebrity has been a filip for an institution struggling to appear irrelevant, not least because of her blended heritage. Meghan had years in a spotlight of her own to help her to cope with the on off affections of this countrys media. Diana, prince harrys late mother, never could. Yet from an interview the couple gave back in october, we know theyve been struggling with the attention. Both that interview and the abrupt announcement that they plan to carve out a new life, partly in canada, financially independent from the royals and the british tax payer, blind sided the house of windsor, at least hinting at a rift. Unlike mrs simpson, Meghan Markle is leaving with the spare, not the heir. So why all the fuss . The farce is because there is the psychological similarity. The farce is because there is the psychological similarity. The fuss. Here is a couple who are likely to become an antidote to monarchy altogether. The language that the literary creditor, the language they used to enhance their withdrawal, there was an assertion that they are trying to build a more progressive way forward. That is an interesting statement to make. It complies the criticism that somehow or other, the royal family, complies the criticism that somehow or other, the royalfamily, as complies the criticism that somehow or other, the royal family, as we know, does not provide enough aggressiveness, so you have to set up aggressiveness, so you have to set up your own stall. That isjust aggressiveness, so you have to set up your own stall. That is just the way these two young people are. I can see harry as a great young man, he still is young, compared to my age. He has never got over the death of his mother, so he developed a huge antipathy towards the media. He is hoping now to find a new structure around how he will interface with the media. Im not sure he will succeed, because they will continue to be public figures of great importance, almost of royalty, in their own right. They are a celebrity couple. And secondly, with meghan, im not surprised about the development. She doesnt quite fit in the way that other wives or princes sit. For example, the wife of Prince Edward tried an independent commercial career some years ago and failed miserably, so she faded back into the royal background. This will never happen with meghan. She is a woman with a great sense of mission, and that, she is married to a young man like harry, who also has a mission. They both care for social causes, which i applaud them for. It isjust a question of where they will introduce them and continue to forward them. The royalty will survive, they monarchy will not be threatened centrally by this. Prince charles, as you mentioned in your introduction, had already decided to scale down the monarchy, so that was an almost invitation for this couple to say, ok, if that is the case, we will set up our own way. It shouldnt have called it progressive, thats why i thought to them. And also to continue stressing, he is dutiful to the queen. If he is like that, why did he not inform her in the first place . That he not inform her in the first place . That is he not inform her in the first place . That is a violation of his professed duty that he feels for his grandmother. Altogether, ithink professed duty that he feels for his grandmother. Altogether, i think it will blow over, they will continue to work, the media will treat them like celebrities, like they have always been, so in a sense, it could bea always been, so in a sense, it could be a plus for the monarchy also to have such a famous couple continuing undera different guise. Have such a famous couple continuing under a different guise. Isabel has been smiling the whole way through, she doesnt know where to begin a. Do you challenge the idea that it is easy for women to fit into this family . The fate of princess margaret, for example, who was one born into it, the fate of diana doesnt really encourage it. The mother of prince harry. I think there is a miserable story, it tells mea there is a miserable story, it tells me a couple of things. Firstly, the notion that it is comfortable to the abdication crisisjust notion that it is comfortable to the abdication crisis just shows that the british tabloids cannot get out of the 19305, and the british tabloid5 cannot get out of the 19305, and for many reasons, i wish they would. It would take a major royal bu5 i wish they would. It would take a major royal bus crash for harry to be in line for the throne, you know, he is several points removed. That rai5e5 he is several points removed. That raises the question of how was he to live his life . Raises the question of how was he to live his life . It seems to me that the5e live his life . It seems to me that these were a breath of fresh air in these were a breath of fresh air in the monarchy. If it cannot accommodate these bright, progre55ive, interesting young people, that it is a failure of the monarchy, rather than harry and meghan. Meghan wa5 monarchy, rather than harry and meghan. Meghan was subject to the most appalling race5 meghan. Meghan was subject to the most appalling races and from the 5ame tabloid pre55 who are now blaming herfor 5ame tabloid pre55 who are now blaming her for saying enough is enough, andl blaming her for saying enough is enough, and i have options which i am about to exercise. And i dont blame her, ithought am about to exercise. And i dont blame her, i thought her treatment at the hands of the british pre55 wa5 at the hands of the british pre55 was truly appalling. How different, jeffrey, you are part of the us media although you are canadian by birth, and you have worked in this country for a long time. How different were the reaction be . I wonder if the things that meghan is used to in the usa, and which harry will become used to in terms of an appreciation for the need for them, if they are successful, to earn money. How will that go down back here . With a brand, sussex royal, start to clash with the brand of the house of windsor . People outside of the uk have no understanding of the power and toxicity of the tabloid press here. In the us, you have the polarisation of fox news and nbc, which has some parallels, but not the same. Because the daily mail, the same. Because the daily mail, the son, etc, are really consumed in unfounded toxic gossip that gets downright cruel. We have seen in this week, it is staggering to hear these people call themselves journalists, they are not. They are upset because they are going to lose a good story that sells papers, and eye balls o n a good story that sells papers, and eyeballs on their websites. That is fundamentally what is going on. there a difference in Public Perception . In other words, what the british people be as relaxed, lets say, as americans or canadians about this young couple forging their own life, based on their inheritance . My observation having lived in all three countries is that i find, i have lived in the uk for ten years, ifind in the have lived in the uk for ten years, i find in the daily life of this country, the royals are irrelevant. They are most relevant to the tourism industry. You dont need disney well because you have buckingham palace, that is the truth. When i covered the Royal Wedding for abc news and for good morning america, i suddenly realised, because abc is a disney company, i suddenly realised, oh, realised, because abc is a disney company, isuddenly realised, oh, my gosh, this is where he got the idea from. All of these horses and costu mes, from. All of these horses and costumes, etc. So i think here, the kind of clucking of the tabloid press, the vicious clucking, is what defines it. In the us, they are big celebrities, and i think that is a problem for them. In the us, a celebrity is public property, and particularly in the era of mobile phones and selfies on facebook and instagram. They would move to the us in their peril. The funny thing about my home and native land canada is that it has a very different approach to celebrities. There is a much more deferential view towards celebrities. Canada doesnt have a lot of celebrities, although more and more, it would seem. But there is, for example, an extraordinarily beautiful area of north toronto, the muskoka lakes, where the wealthy go for their summer lake homes. A number of americans liberties who have no connection to canada take theirfamilies have no connection to canada take their families up there because they can go around in their boats, they can go around in their boats, they can go around in their boats, they can go around in shorts and t shirts and americans would go, there is goldie hawn, there is cindy crawford, but they wont take pictures. Canadians would go, there is goldie hawn. But they dont consider celebrities their own property. I have another view, first of all, i am from iran, property. I have another view, first of all, lam from iran, i property. I have another view, first of all, i am from iran, i am british iranian, and honestly, i have never been exposed to that kind of racism that we hear people saying, meghan ha5 that we hear people saying, meghan has been subjected to, as a British Society is so open and warm. That is one thing. But i feel a lot of pain in this story, a lot of grief between brothers. Between husband and wife, probably, between father and wife, probably, between father and son. But at the same time, i see petulance of youth. And i think there is also a problem of miscommunication. You have one style, an american or a us style of communicating with your audience, and then there is another style of communicating that is more genuine and authentic and as for british people. And i think that is perhaps one thing that meghan did not understand properly, because she could not understand why it didnt sound fine to have this kind of parties or actually give out or issue press releases, not appreciating the stature of the grandmother of her husband. These are the personal. And obviously, it is very damaging, i think, to the monarchy itself, of how people would feel within it. If you monarchy itself, of how people would feelwithin it. If you look monarchy itself, of how people would feel within it. If you look at the way the monarchy is framed, it is a soap opera, it is the National Soap opera. In soap operas, there are stock characters, the wise older woman, the slightly peculiar elder son, what are we going to do with him when he is king . And then you have some rogue characters otherwise the narrative is not interesting. And i think that whether consciously or not, what meghan would have seen, having played for a long time in a soap opera, is that they had been cast and whatever they did or said, that was their character, those is where the characters assigned to them. There was no escape from that and the only way to get out is to move. She should be grateful, im sorry. Excuse me, and i have all the respect for meghan and all the respect for meghan and all the respect for meghan and all the respect for the people in monarchy, but they should be grateful, they are living in palaces, they are getting all these. I are living in palaces, they are getting all these. I have a feeling, if you said to harry. M isa feeling, if you said to harry. M is a responsibility as well. feeling, if you said to harry. M is a responsibility as well. I think if you said to harry, if you had it been born a common person, he probably would say, yes please. Lastly, as the British Government might let these people go at a time when brexit is happening . We have a global attraction and we are letting it move to canada. We are not letting them move anywhere, they will continue to play a part of the global village. That is where the description of a british monarchy as a soap rock opera, it is not that. It is part and parcel of the british identity. It is more important that the papers write about it. It is the framing of it in the tabloid press is how we view it. They are going a great disservice. The monarchy continues to remain an important identity of british self awareness. But it is modernising itself. We are out of time, we are back next week, thank you. Hello. Compared with yesterday, a lot more cloud around today and much windier, too. They went with us is particularly mild, coming all the way from the mid atlantic, this stretch of orange on the southern edge of this rain bearing weather front, and in the mild area where the strongest wind is through the rest of today. England and wales seen the peak in the gusts this afternoon, 50 60 mph in a few spots, easing back in scotland and northern ireland. Here, the wettest weather of the moment, rain easing off from the north and west through the afternoon, sunshine and showers for many as we finish the day. We will be turning more wet in the north of england. Further south in the country, not much rain, many places dry, someone will push through in the breeze, turning letter to the north and west of wales later. Some sunshine further east and temperatures peaked at around lunchtime, 13 14 across parts of north east england, dropping this afternoon, noticeably with clear skies in scotland and northern ireland. The wet weather will push into england overnight, everyone will see at least some outbreaks of rain. With the clear skies and the northern half of the country, it will turn colder than last night, a touch of frost and some eyes around, temperatures holding in double figures in the south. A lot of cloud in england and wales first thing on sunday morning. Cloudier is through the strip from wales into northern england, rain can Linger Longer too. In the south of that, sunshine out sooner, and sunshine and showers across northern ireland, in much brighter day. Less windy, too, but a bit colder. Temperatures in single figures for the majority, still hitting around 11 12 towards the south east corner. Chillier night on sunday into monday, but clear skies means it is a bright and sunny start to monday. This brings some very wet and windy weather later in the day. Whilst many start dry and bright, in the afternoon and evening rush hour across northern ireland, western scotla nd across northern ireland, western scotland wales and western england, torrential rain and damaging winds, maybe even up to 80 mph, which could cause some problems to finish on monday afternoon and going into monday afternoon and going into monday evening. Mild conditions coming in which will continue through the week ahead, but more Stormy Weather forecast for next week. Further travel disruption possible, stay tuned to the 00 28 25,491 4294966103 13 29,430 forecast