Transcripts For BBCNEWS Dateline London 20170422

But theres every reason to think that even if he is thoroughly crushed, hes going to stay. He may stay, and that was perhaps one of the reasons why theresa may might have Wa Nted The Reasons Why theresa may might have wanted this election, to finally lands flat boil of an opposition she doesnt like. She has said she wants more authority, she wa nts a said she wants more authority, she wants a strong opposition. But weve seen antiestablishment candidates do rather well in other parts of the world. Is a shes running a risk of the stability she has enjoyed . Every election has a risk and we have nearly seven weeks in which events can come up nearly seven weeks in which events can come up and derail the best of plans, but all things being equal, it looks like there wouldnt be a better time for the Prime Minister to do this. Jeremy corbyn has led the labour Party Without the confidence of his own mps for some time. He seems to lack credibility in public as a leader. Im trying to be fair. I think he spoke well at his lunch. But its too late to turn around the general lack of confidence in him, notjust in the party but in the country at large. Is it party but in the country at large. Isita party but in the country at large. Is it a case of having him for another three years . |j is it a case of having him for another three years . I think polly is right, i think youll stay. Jeremy corbyn is not going to suddenly be anything different. The real reason she cold it is that this is her peak moment. She will never be as popular or successful as she is now. Shes going into the most difficult negotiations. We dont even know who is sitting on the other side of the table, depending on the elections in france and germany. Shes probably going to head on confrontation with other people in europe and her own backbenchers. Whatever compromise she makes, she will be trounced, so nothing will ever be so good for her again. So that election in 2020 would have been much harder to win. Indeed, she would have come back is probably a rotten deal and at least half the population would think it was a rotten deal, whatever it was. Michael, youre reporting with the people who dont know britain. Have you explaining it . There are two things. I have this image of someone saying to the stockbroker, when the price gets to such and such, cell. Price gets to such and such, sell. Just a few hours after the announcement was made, the Financial Times is running comment about how clever this was, because on both sides, the idea of negotiating something that is realistic both from a european perspective and a british perspective, on britains detachment from the European Union in two years is virtually impossible. What she has essentially doneis impossible. What she has essentially done is bought herself under the eu an extra few years to work at height and tangled britains relationship. In that respect, she may have been taking soundings from people in brussels, that one way of extending this negotiating beaded and moving that hard deadline of 2019, because we know that in europe, all deadlines are made to be pushed further along. This may well have played into her decision as well. Its surprising she didnt call for an election before, for instance, after the astounding victory at the by election. So it all makes sense, she is buying more time. She has a boulevard in front of, as we say french. Of course, the lib dems are probably going to win a few seats and labour is good to be crushed. The snp cannot do better apart from one more seat. And of course, she only had the mandate of 200 mps before now. For brussels, is better to have a stronger british Prime Minister, otherwise you dont know. And then also, within her own party, she is often been taken hostage by ha rd she is often been taken hostage by Hard Brexiteer is. Now if she can say, you shut up, i have a mandate. Whatever she may have said publicly and we have just take everything she says on her merits. She said seven times she wasnt going to have an election and then she changed her mind. We cant take anything she says at face value after that. But in terms of one of the things you didnt talk about, about the difficulty of selling the Big City Will never own party, is that part of the calculation . I think like any Prime Minister who was elected at a general election, she felt that lack of authority. There are times when its dangerous not to have an election, as gordon brown showed. The other thing about her position is not only that shell get that sort of mandate, but also in the brexit negotiations, she will be able to see, not only now has been a referendum and a vote in the House Of Commons and the house of lords, but also a popular general election. It does improve her hand in the negotiations. Thats only if she spells out what her Negotiating Position is and what her red lines are. Whats really disgraceful is, we have talked about these tactics, gordon brown made a mistake and shes not going to make this a mistake. The real genuine politics are that we need an election when she comes home with the deal, with the people can genuinely decide weather they like the deal or weather they like the deal or weather they like the deal or weather they think its a mistake. This is meaningless. There is nothing new. That is nothing new content nothing new. That is nothing new co nte nt to nothing new. That is nothing new content to be decided in any ma nifesto. Content to be decided in any manifesto. We really need one when she has done the deal. This conversation reflects that the biggest danger for the Prime Minister is expected management, because unless she does extraordinarily well, then corporate will be seen to have done better than expected. Which will give him the space to carry on. You are managing our expectations. I slightly disagree with poorly about putting in the manifesto what her Negotiating Positions are. Its actually too early. She doesnt have positions. I do think that having the election is not a bad thing. Firstly because i did think. I think. I thought gordon brown actually did make a mistake. Even if he had lost, you have to stand up and show the courage. He had lost, you have to stand up and show the couragelj he had lost, you have to stand up and show the courage. I disagree with all of you on the manifesto point. If she doesnt put pledges in the manifesto, then she runs into a very difficult position. What could she put in . Her red lines. My point is, in the absence of that material in the manifesto, then the house of lords, which will be firmly in favour of remain, they will be entitled to say to her, endure a mandate at the election like this point, so we are entitled to push back. In terms of the practicalities of this, lets say theresa may winds a general election, i greater risk is it for her that people say, that was pointless. And also that she has created a bit of space forJeremy Corbyn, may be helped to revive the lib dems, who were anti brexit party, who will be key to any easier for her. Meanwhile, there are those pesky people in the house of lords. Could it not be her own party that says, actually, we havent gained very much. Its a Foregone Conclusion shes going to win, a question of how much of a majority she gets. It may be that corbin makes some progress on being the outsider. The antiestablishment figure. And maybe that gets a bit of a ground swell, meanwhile lib dems pick up quite a bit of what theyve lost last time and were all back to where we were. When alan johnson stands down, and for many labour supporters, he represented a mist opportunity, a leader who shouldve been. I think we dont play in this discussion so far what will happen in the labour party. Lets assume that because of the way the system works, there are still 150 labour mps, is at a reasonable assumption . Yes. Withjeremy mps, is at a reasonable assumption . Yes. With Jeremy Corbyn, mps, is at a reasonable assumption . Yes. WithJeremy Corbyn, we hear the talk of purges, and i think the centre left talk of purges, and i think the ce ntre left will have talk of purges, and i think the centre left will have to have a huge discussion among themselves about where they put their faith in the future. This is never going to happen. Were not talking about tony blair. He said only one of the ce ntre left blair. He said only one of the centre left plan, which is to create a Movement Across Political Party movement, which would change things. Ive been there this feels like 1981 all over again. Winners, all those people out there got bored at the time, the centre left broke away from the far left. We have an Electoral System that absolutely crushes any new arrival. Look at ukip getting 15 and no mps. We have an outrageous Electoral System that does not allow innovation. If all the labour mps are againstJeremy Corbyn, or the majority, why dont they create something . Because they wouldnt get elected again. We did it last time. They have to then fight in each seat labour candidate. That puts forward. In the short term, it would be good for the Conservative Party. I agree with your synopsis. The first is that many mps who are not household names to viewers, but westminster people know about the moderate supporters, the welterweights, the overall disappearing. It makes it much harder. An awful lot want to go and has been a huge pressures inside the party to stop them. Lows of people, particularly the older ones, have been stopped the quite cross with certain people like Fiona Mctaggart and alan johnson with certain people like Fiona Mctaggart and alanjohnson going. We could have just hung mctaggart and alanjohnson going. We could havejust hung on, they could a lwa ys could havejust hung on, they could always have a by election later. Could havejust hung on, they could always have a byelection later. The Snap Election has protected some of the positions of the remaining moderates a dogface reselection. And because Boundary Changes are being planned. Luckily there is a generational shift. In terms of the other aspect weve spoken about, one is the question of the liberal democrats, because the lib dems were in parliamentary terms all but annihilated in the last general election. Is this going to give them potential for regeneration . M definitely does. One of the outcomes was the near destruction of the liberal democrats. I think one of the accidents of this election is will be the revival of the lib dems. Not necessarily because people have huge vegan tim farrell, but because the ce ntre left huge vegan tim farrell, but because the centre left belief inJeremy Corbyn is so low, this would else will vote go. Theres also a bit of a remain vote for the lib dems, will vote go. Theres also a bit of a remain vote forthe lib dems, and thats because Jeremy Corbyn was lfi ;. If§ smut never very convinced about remain. There will be places like richmond and sussex, where Labour Voters labour votes to the lib dems are the well again. There is a lot more of a soft tory vote, where when the Election Campaign goes on and receive the relentless nature of it, they may decide they are remain first and tory second. Itll be better than they had, but its not good to be huge. The impact will be about those who switch from labour to the conservatives. In Northern Ireland, theres the debate over the border with the Republic Of Ireland and the snp are desperately wanting another referendum. Bloggers create extra problems for the british government. This will be the great crack. This will be the time when they say, theresa may, helped by David Camerons appalling judgment on the referendum, hacked apart the united kingdom. Ithink on the referendum, hacked apart the united kingdom. I think it will be all over. I think the scots will be gone after the next referendum or the one after that. In Northern Ireland, its very frightening about weather we go back to the bad old times. Its been quite cavalier of the entire Brexit Campaign not to consider the united kingdom. Im far more optimistic. I dont think we will have a referendum in scotland, but if we do, it will be lost. We have had a Comment Trading easier with arrogant for a long time, predating the eu. Michael, last word on the impact on the uk. predating the eu. Michael, last word on the impact on the uk. I am genuinely sceptical about weather a second referendum would win, but then again, its seven years down then again, its seven years down the line and we dont know where their brexit negotiations will be. But the contemporary Conservative Party really does take scotland for granted and thats one of the reasons it took gordon brown to port David Camerons chestnuts out of the fire on the first referendum. I would worry it hasnt learned its lesson and that is a real worry that scotland will go. The gunman who shot dead a Police Officer in paris on thursday night may or may not have grasped the full symbolism of his murderous act. The champs elysees, in sight of the arc de triomphe, is one of frances best known locations, making this a provocative challenge to the french sense of identity. The question is whether what Francois Hollande says is likely to be terrorism will affect who the french choose to succeed him as president. Agnes, did the reactions of the leading president ial candidates reveal much about this election . Of course, the irony is that the attack happened at the same time during a television debate, when it was more like le pen. Vocal, she because i third of french undecided, because i third of french voters are still undecided. Perhaps because they dont believe in the polls any more. The polls say the first four are extremely close to each other. I still think Marine Le Pen will face off macron. But there are six possible scenarios. We should talk about the most frightening one, which is the hard left candidates, and extremeJeremy Corbyn. He attends some of his rallies as a hologram. Yes, in six different locations . Marine le pen versus heaven, i dont even Marine Le Pen versus heaven, i dont eve n wa nt Marine Le Pen versus heaven, i dont even want to think about it. The attack may have something of an impact, but not on Marine Le Pen. Those voting for her were going to vote for her anyway. I think it will affect fillon, because of his gravitas. People may think hes a crook, but they cure about national security. Thats what the electorate might say, because this is a serious time and calls for people with experience. I think it harms the exciting useful vote for the newcomer. I was just exciting useful vote for the newcomer. I wasjust going to say, i saw a very interesting survey today, and im not big on data journalism, but this was interesting, six out of ten french voters have changed their mind since the start of the year. Usually, everyone knows about this election and everyone has made the mind up regulargo, election and everyone has made the mind up regular go, but 60 of the electorate has changed. They had no idea. Thats as a result of good choices on both the right and the left. There are more candidates, it isa left. There are more candidates, it is a genuine rainbow spectrum. You can see why people would ship with the left. My own view is its far too close to call, its all within the margin of error for those top few. I think we had better live in fear and terror. We have seen worse happening too often, weve seen the unexpected brexit vote, the appalling transport, so lets imagine the worst and thank their lucky stars of it doesnt happen. Youre already jumping to lucky stars of it doesnt happen. Youre alreadyjumping to the second round. We dont have time for that what it tells us about the state of French Politics, and i right in saying that in no previous election, if this comes to pass on the second round, would there be a situation where neither of the political grouping that have dominated French Politics since charles de gaulle, would that be a first . Yes, it would be a first. What is the first is the collapse of the socialist party. Hamon, he was like anotherJeremy Corbyn. I think hes going to score below 10 , which couldnt happen in many memories. When talking about similar figures forJeremy Corbyn, since 19801935, the same in france. So the hard left candidate enjoys that dynamic of the colla pse candidate enjoys that dynamic of the collapse of the socialist party. What really matters for those outside france, Around The World but particularly in europe, is what it means for europe. Were going to be Negotiating Position but what with . If its melenchon or Marine Le Pen, this will undermine europe completely. If it is melenchon or Marine Le Pen, we dont know what will happen. Or me, one of the big things is how badly Francois Hollande has led his party. Hes been unwilling to leave the stage early enough to let them be credible. IfJeremy Corbyn had left the stage early enough, the labour party could have rebuilt. Theres probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to look up. He couldnt made it clear he wasnt going to be the candidate early. Yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than hamon, thats for sure. Hes more or less faded away, is what the Opinion Polls are saying. The future then is the second round. Is it going to be a clear cut enough result or will we still have people saying it was only one or 2 but decided . The turnout will be important at the second round. We now at midday her much participation we have. If its historically low, then Marine Le Pen stands a lot of chances, because if it is melenchon or Marine Le Pen, some people will not bother go cavorting. Do you remember when Jacques Chirac was in the last one, people on the left went to vote with nose pegs in order to keep le pen out of it. We will talk about this again after the first round is after. Thats it for dateline london for this week were back next week at the same time. You can of Course Comment on the programme on twitter bbcshaunley. Goodbye. Hello. As we go into the start of next week, its going to feel a bit like we have rewound this season. Something chilly, dare i say it, a little bit wintry on the way. Like we have rewound the season. Something chilly, dare i say it, a little bit wintry on the way. So make the most of some springlike weather still to be had this weekend. Our weather watchers have been capturing scenes of sunny spells. That one from the wirral a little earlier on. And it is going to stay largely dry for the majority this weekend, with some sunshine, a bit of patchy cloud around as well. Quite a lot of cloud close to this weather front, just providing one fly in the ointment across the south east through the rest of today. Maybe even the odd light shower. Also a lot of cloud for Northern Ireland. Some patchy cloud elsewhere, but well see some spells of sunshine, although quite a few showers across the far north of scotland. So this is four oclock in the afternoon, if youre out and about, the channel islands, the south west, wales, into the west midlands, will see quite a lot of sunshine here, i suspect. Just a bit of patchy cloud floating through. A little more cloud across the eastern side of england, the odd shower cant be ruled out, and close to the east coast, it will be quite chilly. Just 8 or 9 degrees. Northern england seeing some sunny spells. Generally, quite a lot of cloud for Northern Ireland. It will brighten up a little bit, i suspect, in places. Southern scotland should be dry, but a lot of showers for northern scotland. Some of these showers wintry. Itll be very cold as well, just 4 degrees for lerwick this afternoon. Now, this evening and tonight, the showers will continue in parts of northern scotland. Elsewhere, it will be a largely dry night. Some clear spells, maybe the odd mist patch. And towns and cities not far away from freezing. In the countryside, certainly chilly enough for a touch of ground frost. But chilly weather is not bad news for marathon runners. At the start line, it will be quite cool there in london. Brightening up and warming up a little bit as the day goes on. That really is the story for much of england and wales tomorrow. Some sunny spells. North west england seeing more cloud, along with Northern Ireland and scotland. Some spots of rain here and then some more persistent rain and some windy weather as well developing across the far north later on. Now here, as we go through sunday night, were going to spin up this area of low pressure. That will bring some pretty strong winds for a while. Notice the tightly squeezed isobars. Some outbreaks of rain. But really, this is the big story, this Cold Front Driving Southwards During Sunday Night and monday. A bit of rain on the front, but behind it, it will open the floodgates to a northerly wind. Air coming all the way from the arctic. So a much colder feel to the weather. Overnight frosts, chilly days, and there will be some wintry showers, even some snow for some of us. This is bbc news. The headlines at midday 50,000 Police Officers and troops are deployed across france, as security is tightened for the countrys president ial election. The conservatives play down speculation that taxes will rise if they win the general election. More than 100 people, most of them afghan soldiers, have been killed or wounded in a Taliban Attack on an army base in afghanistan. Also in the next hour Phasing Out Coal by 2025. Britain goes a whole 2a hours without using coal to generate electricity for the First Time Since the victorian era. And in half an hour, the click team travel to paris to investigate how the fear of Cyber Attacks means many people believe the way we vote is stuck in the past