a rate cut is imminent. governing council member olli rehn said that inflation is falling in a "sustained way". and chief economist philip lane told the financial times that "barring major surprises, at this point in time there is enough in what we see to remove the top level of restriction". that decision, whatever it is, will come on the 6th ofjune. live now tojoshua mahony, chief market analyst, scope markets. welcome to the programme. central bank surely like to speak very coded language. it doesn't get clearer than this —— usually like to speak in code. it -- usually like to speak in code. ., , �* ., , code. it doesn't. ultimately the “ob code. it doesn't. ultimately the job of — code. it doesn't. ultimately the job of the _ code. it doesn't. ultimately the job of the central- code. it doesn't. ultimately i the job of the central bankers is to prepare the markets for what should come down the line and they have come out with very uncertain terms. laying out the pathway for the forthcoming meeting, that is a potential rate cut flies in the face of the likes of what we're seeing from the federal reserve and the bank of england, markets instead expecting them to move potentially september or november. the ecb moving ahead of time and most notable is that we also said we could not rule out a jewel—like rate cut which by and large have been ruled out by many other members. it points to potential outlying strength for european equities right now. tell outlying strength for european equities right now.— equities right now. tell us more about _ equities right now. tell us more about why _ equities right now. tell us more about why it - equities right now. tell us more about why it is - equities right now. tell us l more about why it is europe thatis more about why it is europe that is ready to move at this point in time, what are the conditions in the background? first and foremost you have to look at the strength of the us economy over the course of the past two years, that has not necessarily happened in europe. suddenly a heavy focus on manufacturing, which has been the one big weak spot which is why germany has suffered in particular and so there has been a need for the ecb to act where possible. they have driven down inflation down to 2.4% but the eurozone is a grouping of countries and so you see a wide spread. spain at 3.3% inflation but italy down at 0.8% so they have to come to at 0.8% so they have to come to a conclusion and make decisions for what is best for the wider good and i think, despite the fact they haven't got down to 2%, the target, they are near enough and clearly feel like now is the time for them to start trying to take supportive measures that can help bolster the economy at a difficult time. , ., , ., , time. there is a phrase in monetary _ time. there is a phrase in monetary policy - time. there is a phrase in monetary policy circles i time. there is a phrase in i monetary policy circles that you follow the fed, referring to the us federal reserve. it doesn't seem the fed is setting the tone this time. the european central bank is one of the world's most powerful central banks, representing a global economic superpower. would its early move perhaps raise pressure on others to follow suit?— raise pressure on others to follow suit? ~ . , ., ., , , follow suit? what is notable is we have seen _ follow suit? what is notable is we have seen some _ follow suit? what is notable is we have seen some perhaps i follow suit? what is notable is i we have seen some perhaps less commonly followed central banks, the likes of the swiss central bank, the swedish, moving ahead of time already, having eased monetary policy. by having eased monetary policy. by and large, generally, people do follow the fed but we have noted the significant uptick in inflationary pressures and really pointing towards the fact that there is a good chance we don't see the fed cutting interest rates this year. that is why other central banks are having to move ahead of time, in particular ucd canadian central bank which tie their policy to the federal reserve, they look also likely to cut ahead of them and everyone seems likely to go out on their own and cannot rely on the federal reserve to lay the path for everyone to follow on this occasion.— this occasion. there is a precedent _ this occasion. there is a precedent being - this occasion. there is a precedent being set - this occasion. there is a | precedent being set here this occasion. there is a - precedent being set here that perhaps in this economic crisis, cost—of—living crisis we have just gone through, that it is no longer the fed that is setting the tone.— it is no longer the fed that is setting the tone. well, the us has really _ setting the tone. well, the us has really brought _ setting the tone. well, the us has really brought very - has really brought very different pathway to some of these other economies, so i think ultimately if everyone is constantly relying on them then they will be in trouble. they need to be able to take decisions on their own merits and that is exactly what is happening at the moment, so perhaps it sets a precedent but ultimately you would say that the central bankers will probably think they don't necessarily follow the fed and will make their own decisions, it isjust will make their own decisions, it is just that the patterns in the past do point towards the federal reserve generally being the leading light and everyone following that isn't necessarily the case in this occasion. necessarily the case in this occasion-— necessarily the case in this occasion. ., ., occasion. joshua mahony from sco -e occasion. joshua mahony from scope markets, _ occasion. joshua mahony from scope markets, thank - occasion. joshua mahony from scope markets, thank you. - staying in europe, travel businesses are spending tens of millions of pounds and euros preparing for the eu's much—delayed new border—control system. the entry exit system is now due to launch in the autumn and it means that non—eu nationals — including people from the uk — will have to register their fingerprints and a photo before being allowed into the bloc. there have been repeated warnings that this registration process will cause delays for holiday—makers at british border points including the port of dover, the eurostar station in london and the eurotunnel entry point in folkestone, where french border police check passports as people leave the uk. our transport correspondent katy austin has the latest on what's being done to minimize the impact. dover — europe's busiest ferry port — on a normal weekday morning. since brexit, brits must have their passports stamped as they travel through, and there's more change to come. this autumn, a new eu it system is due to go live at the border. it'll replace passport stamping. it'll also mean people have to register their fingerprints, have a photo taken, and answer some questions about their journey. and at places like dover, the registration process will have to be done here at the port. people queuing for ferries will be handed ipads to collect the extra information. dover has already suffered from long queues at peak periods. the time it will take to register has prompted concerns of longer waits. how long does it normally take a passenger at the moment to get through the border at dover, and how long do you think it will take once the entry/exit system's in place? so right now it takes somewhere between 45 seconds and a minute and a half, typically, for a car to go through border controls. so a first—time traveller who has to register their details should anticipate that it will take a couple of minutes to register those details on the system. so then it depends on how many people are in the car, what nationalities are in the car, as well. and so it will take a bit longer. the port is spending about £10 million preparing, trying to make things go smoothly. coach—loads of passengers will be processed in a separate area on the other side of the port. there's also a plan to reclaim land from the sea by next summer, to create space for checks on car passengers. many local businesses in dover complain the town can get gridlocked at busy holiday times, and fear it will get worse. 300 miles away in cornwall, this coach operator has similar worries. it doesn't want to see customers and drivers getting stuck in bottlenecks. we find that a lot of our customers have already had a fairly lengthyjourney before they even get to dover. we've also got to think about drivers' hours and the cost on drivers' hours. it's not only dover that's affected — eurotunnel is putting £70 million towards new lanes for cars, and machines like this to take people's details. at eurostar�*s london st pancras terminus, space is limited. to try and avoid long queues, it's expanding into other areas of the station, like this one, to fit in new kiosks for ees checks — 49 in total. behind me, you have where our passengers arrive normally for check—in today, and unfortunately ees brings an additional step where we have kiosks, and those kiosks will be positioned just around the corner. also a huge amount of people there to guide our passengers. eurostar insists its preparations will mean people don't need to turn up any earlier before their train than they do now. for the first six months of the new system, the eu is expected to allow checks to be reduced if queues get really bad. the uk government says it's working closely with the eu, authorities in kent, and businesses to minimize the risk of delays. but for travel businesses, there are nerves about what's on the horizon. katy austin, bbc news. china has launched a brand—new semiconductor investment fund — its largest to date. it's pouring more that $47 billion into the fund as beijing tries to boost development of its domestic chip industry at a time when the us is trying to limit its access to the most advanced technology. monica miller is following the story from our asia business hub in singapore. is this going to solve china's problems? it is this going to solve china's problems?— problems? it certainly is a aood problems? it certainly is a good attempt. _ problems? it certainly is a good attempt. that - problems? it certainly is a good attempt. that is - problems? it certainly is a good attempt. that is a i problems? it certainly is a i good attempt. that is a large chunk of money and this is china's referred state backed investment fund to set up its semiconductor industry. they are facing stiff competition from the us, and china has set a goal, target to become a global leader in a wide range of industries, but including artificial intelligence 5g and quantum computing. the first phaseis quantum computing. the first phase is back in 2014, and then a second phase that finished in 2019 right before the pandemic, but to go back to remind you of exactly how things have gone, really ratcheted up, in october 2022, washington officials unveiled a sweeping set of expert controls banning chinese cubbies from buying they use in some of the equipment needed to make without a license of the biden administration also pressed its allies, including the netherlands and japan to enact their own restrictions. the us argued that china could use these advanced chips to boost its military capacities. beijing has hit back last year by proposing their own export controls on strategic raw material is critical to the global chip—making industry. chinese chip shares rose on this news on the semiconductor index rose at 3% today. at this news on the semiconductor index rose at 3% today. test a index rose at 396 today. at a time when _ index rose at 396 today. at a time when the _ index rose at 396 today. at a time when the us _ index rose at 396 today. at a time when the us is - index rose at 3% today. at a time when the us is effectively trying to export is highly advanced chips, or other countries stepping in? {iii advanced chips, or other countries stepping in? of the last five years _ countries stepping in? of the last five years we _ countries stepping in? of the last five years we have - countries stepping in? of the last five years we have seen l countries stepping in? of the l last five years we have seen an interest in india and vietnam as countries where people have set up their operations as a way to become less reliant on china. interesting enough malaysia is becoming a real hotspot for this in the semiconductor space. hotspot for this in the semiconductorspace. inteland globalfactories have semiconductorspace. inteland global factories have recently expanded their operations there and according to some of them malaysia officials, they hope to double its share of the global chip trade from 7% to 14% by 2029. global chip trade from 796 to 14% by 2029-_ global chip trade from 796 to 1496 by 2029. monica miller in singapore. — 1496 by 2029. monica miller in singapore, thank— 1496 by 2029. monica miller in singapore, thank you - 1496 by 2029. monica miller in singapore, thank you very - 14% by 2029. monica miller in i singapore, thank you very much. india's food safety regulator has banned the unauthorised sale of breast milk in the country after claims that there were companies involved in the business. the bbc�*s arunoday mukharji has more on what more the regulator said, and why they needed to crack down. well, this has been a concern for a while, and several complaints have also been filed, suggesting that there are some companies in the country which are involved in the practice of selling breast milk. triggered by a lot of these complaints, india's top food regulator has essentially come out with a directive saying that the unauthorised commercialisation of breast milk is an offence, and any company which is found to violate this order will invite punitive action. now, we've seen various reports that there are these milk banks which are involved in the sale of breast milk, but they're operating as nonprofit organisations. they are getting milk from lactating mothers and this milk then is sold at a profit. surprisingly, a lot of these companies have also managed to get licences from the relevant authorities, saying that they are involved in the business of dairy products. but later on, during investigations, it has been found that these dairy products consist of powdered breast milk. so the food regulator essentially has issued a directive saying that tighter control needs to be maintained, and no licences should be given out to any company which is involved in such practices. let's get some of the day's other news now. the leaders of china, south korea and japan have agreed to resume talks for a free trade agreement, which have been stalled since 2019. china is the largest trading partner of both south korea and japan. its premier li qiang met with south korean president yoon suk yeol and japanese prime minister fumio kishida on monday — as the three countries try to manage rising global tensions between china and the us. elon musk�*s artificial—intelligence start—up xai says it's raised $6 billion in the company's latest fundraising round. it plans to use the money to improve its chatbot, called grok, which musk says answers questions with "a little humour". mr musk was an early backer of the industry leader 0penai — the people behind chatgpt — but he later criticised it and warned about the potential dangers of the technology. global football icon david beckham has scored a new advertising deal with china's alibaba. the former england captain has been named the global brand ambassador of ali—express — that's alibaba's international e—commerce platform. it's one of several high—profile chinese brands, including electric car maker byd, that are sponsoring this year's uefa european soccer championship. when we come back, china in pole position — we'll assess whether its car manufacturers are taking over the world of evs. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. welcome back. most in the world know we should tackle climate change, but it requires expensive decisions and the prospect of doom still feels like it's far enough way. in the maldives, that prospect feels much closer, and in a climate of high interest rates its government is finding it hard to borrow the money it needs for nation of islands to survive. the maldives is co—chairing the un's conference on small island developing states, which has begun in antigua, and our reporterjonathan josephs has been speaking to the government's climate change envoy about securing their future. the very beauty that brings millions of tourists to places like the maldives each year is also the biggest threat to their future. for 37 countries, being so close to rising sea levels means access to cheaper money from richer countries is crucial to winning the fight against climate change — according to the man trying to get them to agree an action plan. the way we see some of the development projects like the causeways and coastal protection, those are really climate adaptation for us because it's protecting our vulnerable coasts. but when we ask for financing for that, that falls into their category of infrastructure development. so it's sometimes difficult to, you know, get access to financing on those grounds. so what, really, we are asking is, you know, we need to modify those criteria which the financing is provided. are you able to put any kind of even approximate numbers on this — are we talking a few billion dollars, are we talking tens of billions of dollars? they've got different figures. of course, there are different assessments. they are order of billions of dollars. it shows how significant this climate financing could be, and how large it could be. whatever measure you use, is the political will there for the richer countries who do have better access to this money to give that money to this cause? yes, i think the political will is there. and when you account for our vulnerability, that has to have a long...you know, it should be more concessional, that has to come in at cheaper concessional rates. plus, that would have to, of course, give us more longer times for us to repay it back. why is it so difficult, and why is it so expensive to get hold of that money for a country like the maldives? the way it is provided with the higher interest rate, it is... i mean, it's not affordable if that's the case. most of the small countries, we've got quite a lot to do on our debt side. yes. but then, you know, don't make the current debt levels that we have to be, you know, another reason not to provide the financing. again, because in the first place, you know, they were based on a different measure. so put our vulnerability to be part of the measurements to provide the financing. a country like the maldives — and many of the other small island developing states that are meeting here — are heavily dependent on tourism for their economy. does that need to change, and what does that look like if they're going to be able to afford to repay these loans? yeah, we've got diversification with financial centres to be coming in. we've got ports and harbour services to be coming in different parts of the country. plus, we would be coming up with agricultural development, which we could reduce on the import expenditure that we are doing, as well. which would, you know, again, give means to do the repayment of what we are asking for. these vulnerable island states remain on the front line of the fight against climate change, but financial change at home and abroad could just secure theirfuture. jonathan josephs, bbc news. a decade ago china's president xi jinping gave a speech declaring the future of the car industry lies in electric vehicles, urging chinese companies to get a head start in the field. today, china accounts for almost 60% of electric car sales — something which has not gone unnoticed in the rest of the world. brussels is investigating chinese car—makers' use of subsidies, and the us has announced a quadrupling of tariffs on chinese electric vehicles to 100%. live now to dilin wu, research strategist, pepperstone. following developments in this sector very closely, she joins us from melbourne. thank you forjoining us. a decade ago there were also very few chinese car brands being bought outside of china, or known outside of china, or known outside of china, or known outside of china. would you say that the industry is now in the lead when it comes to the ev market? and crucially, will each keep that lead? well, i think china's _ each keep that lead? well, i think china's out _ each keep that lead? well, i think china's out the - each keep that lead? well, i think china's out the ev - think china's out the ev industry is actually emerging and if we take a quick peek at the data come in 2023 the production and sales of new vehicles were both renowned do neck at around 9.5 million. breaking request for nine consecutive years. ev have also become a major driver of china's export growth. in the first quarter of this year, ev exports increased by almost 24% on a yearly basis, contributing to 4.3%. i would say china stands as a high ground in this industry. stands as a high ground in this indust . , , ' industry. interesting stuff. subsidies, _ industry. interesting stuff. subsidies, brussels - industry. interesting stuff. subsidies, brussels are i subsidies, brussels are certainly upset about the chinese government's subsidies to manufacturers making it cheaper for them to build. to manufacturers making it cheaperfor them to build. that said, the rest of the world has gone to china for the past generation, for generations now, to get its good manufactured more cheaply. when it comes to those electric car makers that are now debuting on roads around the world at cheaper prices, to what extent is actually the government subsidies that are making them cheaper, orjust the lower cost of doing business in china? i think it is probably because of the lower cost because byd, it is not only a major producer of the ev cars but also they have a strong capacity in producing batteries, so i think they can greatly control the cost of their battery production and also the cost. that is one of the pillars that can reduce the overall cost, to make the price cheaper and more affordable, i think. 50 cheaper and more affordable, i think. ., , ., think. so the eu, the european commission. — think. so the eu, the european commission, is _ think. so the eu, the european commission, is still— think. so the eu, the european commission, is still weighing l commission, is still weighing up commission, is still weighing up its response, it is having a good long think about it. the us has raised tariffs on the import of vehicles from china. is there any evidence so far of those us tariffs actually having an impact on how many chinese cars are sold in the us? ~ 4' . us? well, i think the impact in the short term _ us? well, i think the impact in the short term is _ us? well, i think the impact in the short term is quite - us? well, i think the impact in the short term is quite limited | the short term is quite limited because the us accounts for less than 2% of china's ev and a solar cell exports and new tariff hikes affect only around 4% of their annual exports to the us and 0.5% of china's a total export in 2023, so i think european attitude matters more. as for now, the president of funds spoke on german and said a very nationalism, protectionism to me, with a line of buying french. we would expect during the fifth is a really important date to look because by then we will see the preliminary findings from the european consett to see if they are about to put any tariffs on china, and if they do i would be much more concerned of the payment bill of china's export and new energy vehicles. diiin and new energy vehicles. dilin wu from pepperstone, - and new energy vehicles. dilin wu from pepperstone, thank you forjoining us and sharing your insights with us today. here's how asian markets are performing in tuesday's session. those are not the asian markets! that is the front page of our website. there are always more stories there, including that when you are saying about how sharp price rises are now back to normal with inflation coming back under control. breakfast is nextin under control. breakfast is next in the uk, i will be back with your top stories in a few minutes for viewers in the rest of the world. join us again next time. hello. the weather over the bank holiday weekend was quite changeable for many of us, and more of the same in the days ahead. tuesday for many will be a rather cloudy day, rain at times, a bit of sunshine, i think, later on in the afternoon. now, the weather front that's approaching us is already visible on the satellite picture. it's not particularly big, it's not going to be particularly wet, but i think enough of the low pressure to give us a fairly dreary day, at least for a time. now, through the night, cloud and rain will approach western parts of the uk, but towards the east, it's generally clear. so, from norwich to newcastle and aberdeen, i think here, first thing in the morning, some sunshine and temperatures around 8—9 — a bit milder out towards the west where we've got these atlantic winds. so, here's all of that cloud and some rain spreading across the country. later in the day, sunshine developing. certainly, i think the afternoon is looking brighter in northern ireland, and there'll be sunny spells in wales and the midlands. and in fact, through the course of the evening, i think there'll be some late brightness as well as that weather front slowly drifts into the north sea. so, that's tuesday. the low pressure still with us on wednesday. you can see these weather fronts are dragging their heels, and i think on wednesday, it's going to be more of a day of sunny spells and heavy showers. some of the showers will be thundery in parts of scotland and i think along these eastern counties, so the further west you are on wednesday, the drier and sunnier it'll be. in fact, some of these western coasts could end up having a beautiful day — for example, in northern ireland and the welsh coasts. here's thursday — a northerly breeze, so a little on the cool side, and i think showers may become frequent in other areas, so no two days are going to be the same in the week ahead. temperatures 16—18 celsius, so really more of the same, something that we've been used to for days now. that's thursday. now you might be thinking about the weekend already. it's not long now. the high pressure is expected to build across the uk and last all through the weekend, so that does promise some settled weather, and i think a lot of sunshine on the way as well. in fact, if you look at your apps, they should be already pointing to plenty of sunshine for friday, saturday, and sunday, and the temperatures pretty decent — as long as we get those sunny spells. that's it from me, bye—bye. good morning, welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. 0ur headlines today. rishi sunak targets older voters as the conservatives pledge to raise the tax—free allowance for pensioners. more than 100 business leaders have thrown their support behind labour, endorsing the party's economic plans ahead of the election. the un security council will hold an emergency meeting later over an israeli air strike on a refugee camp which killed at least 45 palestinians. good morning. young people in the uk are sometimes perceived as being a little bit work—shy but the statistics tell a different story. we are at adam's cafe in leeds, morning, adam, talking to him and some other under 25s about