Main news stories a warning from a leading Cancer Charity that almost a million women have missed vital breast screening appointments because of the pandemic. Personal attacks and feisty exchanges from the two men who want to be the next president of the united states. Millions tuned into the first president ial tv debate. Im not going to answer the question because. Why wont you answer that question . The question is. Radical left. Will you shut up, man . A lifeline for the National League clubs are told they will receive emergency grants to enable them to start the new season on saturday. Good afternoon and welcome to bbc news. The govermment has reached a compromise with a sizeable group of conservative backbenchers who were threatening to rebel unless mps were given more of a say over coronavirus regulations. The Health Secretary, matt hancock, told mps that in future, theyll be consulted on Significant National measures. Earlier, the commons speaker, sir Lindsay Hoyle, accused the government of showing a total disregard for parliament in the way it had brought in new coronavirus laws. All this comes as borisjohnson prepares to hold a downing street News Conference alongside the uks chief medical and scientific advisers in half an hour. We will bring you that life, of course. We will look at the latest figures that have emerged in the last half an hour. The latest figures on coronavirus show there were 7,108 confirmed cases. A further 71 deaths within 2a hours ofa a further 71 deaths within 2a hours of a positive covid 19 death and that figure is the same as reported on tuesday. More than 80 cases of coronavirus have been identified at a hospital in south wales, leading to a temporary suspension of most services. A leading charity has estimated that almost one million women in the uk have missed vital breast screening due to coronavirus. Research organised by the bbc suggests a hardcore minority of people are not prepared to obey rules on self isolating as the law requires. And the vice chancellors of several universities have publicly called for a level exams to be cancelled next year, in favour of teacher led assessment, to avoid a repeat of this summers disruption. Well bring you that News Conference from the Prime Minister as soon as it starts. It is due at around five oclock this evening. But first, lets hear what the Health Secretary told the commons this afternoon. He told mps hed listened to their concerns about parliamentary scrutiny. Today, i can confirm to the hows that for Significant National meadows with effect in england or uk wide, we will consult parliament, wherever possible, we will hold votes before such regulations come into force. But of course, responding to the virus means the government must act with speed when required and we cannot hold up urgent regulations which are needed to control the virus and save lives. Iam sure to control the virus and save lives. I am sure that no member of this house would want to limit the governments ability to take Emergency Action in the National Interest as we did in march and we will continue to involve the house and scrutinising our decisions in the way my right honourable friend the way my right honourable friend the Prime Minister set out this week with regular statements and debates and the ability for members to question the governments scientific advisers more regularly, gain access to data about their constituencies andjoin to data about their constituencies and join daily calls with my right honourable friend the paymaster general. Matt hancock in the commons. The conservative mp sir graham brady, who chairs the backbench 1922 committee and was leading calls for greater parliamentary scrutiny, welcomed the move by the Health Secretary. Can i also thank him for being prepared to listen, and for the constructive conversations that we have had over the last couple of weeks . As he said, members on both sides of the house understand the importance of ministers having the freedom to act quickly when its necessary, but we are grateful that he and other members of the government have understood the importance of proper scrutiny in this place and the benefits that that can bring to better government as well. The shadow home secretary Nick Thomas Symonds said labour would not block the motion, but that things needed to change. We have supported the government when its right to do so and the british people whove sacrificed so much in the National Effort to address this virus deserve nothing less. But today, we say to the government, things cannot go on as they are. The incredible efforts of the british people have not been matched with competence and grip by the uk government. Announcements about measures made overnight, with no proper notice and no proper power of review. Government ministers on National Media with absolutely no idea of what the rules are. The public are being let down on a grand scale. Nick Thomas Symonds for labour. As i mentioned, the deal was reached after intervention from the speaker of the house of commons. Sir Lindsay Hoyle said the government had shown contempt for parliament in the way it has introduced local coronavirus restrictions. He read out a statementjust before Prime Ministers questions. The way in which the government has exercised its powers to make secondary legislation during this crisis has been totally unsatisfactory. All too often, important Statutory Instruments have been published a matter of hours before they come into force and some explanations why important measures have come into effect before they can be laid before this house has been unconvincing and shows a total disregard for the house. I now look to the government to rebuild the trust with this house and not treat it with the contempt that it has shown. Sir Lindsay Hoyle addressing mps just before pmqs. Meanwhile, at pmqs, borisjohnson defended the use of local measures to control the spread of covid 19. But he was challenged by the labour leader about how confusing the restrictions are. Yesterday, the Prime Minister had to apologise for getting the rules that now apply in the north east of england wrong. Sir keir starmer asked how people could be expected to understand when the pm had failed to make them clear. Mr speaker, if the Prime Minister doesnt understand the rules and his own Council Leaders are complaining about mixed messages, how does the Prime Minister expect the rest of the country to understand and follow the rules . Mr speaker, actually, ithink that the people of this country do understand and overwhelmingly do follow the rules. And he mentions the restrictions in the north east and i cleared that matter up as fast as i could. Its very clear that you shouldnt mix indoors, either at home or in a hospitality setting, and you should avoid socialising outdoors. We need to apply that in the north east because that is where it is spiking. I think people do understand why were doing that, i think people do get it. I think people want us to defeat this virus and they want to see us doing it together. Our political correspondent, iain watson, is in westminster. Edging up to that News Conference, what should we be looking out for, do you sense this is a key moment . certainly think it is going to be the beginning of more information about the spread of the virus and more restrictions in due course. We are having the people who were there during the pandemics the pandemics peak, the chief medical officer and a chief scientific adviser flanking the Prime Minister himself, and it will be the first of regular News Conferences i am told and they will not be good News Conferences, they will be talking about the spread of the virus and the steps the government hesitate to control it. 71 more deaths in the last 2a hours. Similar to the previous 2a hours. More than 7,000 new cases of coronavirus. But i think the Prime Minister will be looking at the Bigger Picture of the tripping of the coronavirus cases since august. At the beginning of last week of course, we had chris whitty and sir Patrick Vallance, the medical and scientific advisers, saying we could see 50,000 new cases a day of coronavirus unmitigated by the middle of next month and that could ultimately lead to perhaps as many as 200 deaths a day from the virus. So it is incumbent on the Prime Minister to point out what hes doing to try to control that. We dont expect him to announce new restrictions today, but it could clear the way for further restrictions. We could hear very soon that teesside may be joining tyneside and having further restrictions imposed. There has also been a push by the mayor of london sadiq khan to have more restrictions on households mixing in the capital, he is concerned about the number of 111 calls going up and a concern about a lack of testing. Irrespective of the Prime Ministers message, the questions he is likely to be asked from the press and possibly the public will also around firstly the testing regime, that has been the main criticism of labour and potential confusion. Now we have so and potential confusion. Now we have so many places in local lockdown, 60 Million People living with varying degrees of restriction, whether there is no confusion about the rules. People will be picking up on the own confusion about the rule of six by the Prime Minister yesterday and the restrictions imposed in the north east. So a call for clarity there. But what is happening in the house of commons, there is concern on conservative benches about confusion and the last thing they wa nt confusion and the last thing they want the Prime Minister to do is to bring clarity through a new national lauric bring clarity through a new national lauric lockdown, they want that to be avoided at all costs. I think we will see effectively clearing the ground, making the case that further restrictions may be necessary unless people stick with the rules, but they wont be imposing new restrictions yet. But of course, as you point out, now mps will have a vote if there will be significant new National Restrictions imposed, there will be greater scrutiny of what the government is doing. Absolutely, we will be back with you ina absolutely, we will be back with you in a little while, thank you. Our Health Correspondent, lauren moss, is here. Theyre the daily figures in the last hour, explain where we are. To talk you through the new confirmed cases, 7108 is the new confirmed coronavirus case in last 2a hours. Yesterday, it was 71113. Second day ina row yesterday, it was 71113. Second day in a row the cases have gone over 7,000 and that is the First Time Since throughout the pandemic. We need to bear in mind as well this is the first time the cases have hit that level since we have done the mass testing on the level we have been doing so 232,000 tests carried out in the last 2a hours, capacity nearing 300,000 now. If we look at hospital admissions, they are climbing. Yesterday, the figures we re climbing. Yesterday, the figures were 2049 patients in hospitals across the uk being treated with coronavirus. Now 2252. And 312 of those patients are on ventilators. Those cases are steadily climbing and like you mentioned earlier, another 71 deaths confirmed as well for the second day in a row. Hospital admissions are sadly an interesting thing to look at because we remember back in the day at the start of this we were told so often that the measures we should be taking were in part to protect the nhs. Yes, if we look at those hospital admissions further, to put this into context, there are admissions doubling roughly every two weeks or twice a month. But if we go back to the peak of the pandemic in april, they were doubling every four or five days, almost twice a week. We are not at that level yet, but when a patient is admitted to hospital which is generally a couple of weeks or three weeks after contracting coronavirus, they have got ill and displayed symptoms and become increasingly aware they have required healthcare and then it is two or three weeks after they became infected. By looking at the hospital admission figures, it does give more of a clearer picture of what is happening in terms of what the virus is doing, but it is also a little too late in a sense to act and that is why all these measures will be taken into account along with the ons Infection Survey where they randomly test hassles across england and wales, we look at case numbers and increased testing and hotspot areas and that feeds into the r number we hear so much about. And i think that is really what we will hear more of today from chris whitty and sir Patrick Vallance, clarifying what they were talking about last monday, assessing those figures and looking at where we are now in the pandemic. Thanks very much for now. The deaths of seven coronavirus patients have been recorded in scotland in the past 24 hours, the highest rise since mid june. Nicola sturgeon said the death of people who first tested positive in the previous 28 days are a very sharp reminder of the danger of covid 19. Ending september 26th, there were a total of 94 covid admissions to hospital, and that is up from 58 in the previous week. This is a 60 increase in hospital admissions from one week to the next, and it should remind us of how wrong it is to assume that because the recent rise in cases has been driven by the younger population, it is nothing to worry about. That is, in my view, dangerous complacency that we simply cannot afford right now. And to underline that point, i deeply regret to say that seven additional deaths have been registered of people who first tested positive for covid during the previous 28 days and the total number of deaths under that measure is now 2,519. That figure of seven deaths is the highest i have had to report at one of these briefings sincejune 17th. It is therefore a very sharp reminder of the fact that covid is an extremely dangerous virus, as well as a highly infectious one. Nicola sturgeon at her briefing a little earlier. Eight patients have died with coronavirus at the royal glamorgan hospital in south wales where 82 cases have been linked to an outbreak on the site. The wales education minister, Kirsty Williams, said the Welsh Government was working with the health board and Public Health wales to address the issues which had led to the outbreak. We are of course aware of the situation at the royal glamorgan hospital in llantrisant and we recognise how upsetting that will be for patients, or would be patients at that hospital, staff at the hospital and the community. Planned surgeries have been temporarily stopped at the hospital in a bid to deal with the rising coronavirus cases on the hospital estate. Patients who would usually be taken to a e at the royal glamorgan hospital will be sent elsewhere as part of a plan. The temporary measures we are talking about will come into force as of two oclock this afternoon. Emergencies will be taken at the princess of wales hospital at bridgend, Prince Charles at merthyr tydfil, and at the University Hospital of wales here in cardiff, and we are working very closely with the chief executive and the Senior Management team at the Cwm Taf Morgannwg University health board to help them deal with the outbreak at the hospital and ensure that patients who would usually use those facilities are able to receive care promptly at other sites. Ki rsty Kirsty Williams talking about the outbreak at the hospital in wales. We can take a few minutes as we approach the News Conference to talk about obeying the rules essentially. Do you know someone who broke quarantine after travelling abroad . Or perhaps didnt self isolate for 14 days after being told to by test and trace . Well, research for the bbc suggests a hardcore minority of people are not prepared to obey rules, even when the law requires it. Our home affairs correspondent, dominic casciani, is here. It Interesting Research so talk us through it. What we have been trying to find out is a bit behind what we think is going on where there is a lot of anecdotal evidence and some concern within government about the levels of compliance, not least because of this narrative which has been growing that people are confused or a bit muddled, the incidentjust confused or a bit muddled, the incident just yesterday with the Prime Minister himself about the north east. Ipsos mori, the polling company, asked questions over the weekend about attitudes towards quarantine and isolation and particularly we wanted to look at what happened when people came back from holiday. The vast majority of people said they would comply with an order to sell to isolate but look at this come on returning from abroad, 10 said they would not or we re abroad, 10 said they would not or were unlikely to if coming back from hot spots, even though that is now clearly the law. When you drill further into that and we asked people what they thought was an a cce pta ble people what they thought was an acceptable reason to break quarantine, the figures go up again. The survey found 21 said they would break quarantine, a legal requirement to be locked down at home, to go to work rather than stay after a holiday and the figures go higher if people think they have to ca re higher if people think they have to care for somebody. There are real concerns and within this, these are people who are risking a fine of £1000 if they are identified and caught. We found one person who came back from majorca, her name was alice, she went out for two weeks, knowing she had to self isolate on the way back because it was on the quarantine list and basically she didnt. This is what she said. I didnt have any symptoms, i felt absolutely fine. I hadnt really socialised with people whilst i was on holiday, i literallyjust stayed by the pool. So ijust thought, if im going to catch it anywhere, its going to be back in england and not where i was. In majorca, ijust felt like i was a lot more safe, they were a lot more organised, whereas in england i feel like people arent following all the rules. It probably was really selfish of me, i probably wouldnt do it again, but at the time, i guess you just think of yourself and you want that holiday but you dont want to quarantine. No one wants to quarantine. That is one example and reaction, what somebody chose to do. We found others as well. And more people have contacted me this morning and the interesting thing about this, we dont know how many people are doing it and thats the problem. And where does that leave the police . What can they do and what are they doing . We have a situation where Public Health england are carrying out a sampling exercise, calling about 1500 people a day to ask if their quarantining after coming back to the uk and if they find people they cannot contact, bearing in mind they only get hold of about 50 of people they call, in theory they are passing them on to the police. We know to them on to the police. We know to the quarantine arrangement had been brought in for a foreign travel that the police have carried out 4000 investigations into people who were suspected of breaking it. Three quarters of those, as we expect, we re quarters of those, as we expect, were complying because of compliance levels are quite high but 200 were ignoring quarantine and started complaining when the police were on their doorstep, about another 700 cases quite simply the police could not get to the bottom of whether they were complying or not, they we re they were complying or not, they were not at home or maybe gave a false address. Its all a bit of a mystery what is really going on and its clearly feeding into concerns from the police that they are trying to solve a problem around enforcement without the manpower. The police were asked about what they were going to do about this, there is pressure from government for more enforcement but one of the most Senior Police officers in the country today said that we will not have a manhunt over these people who are not complying with the rules. To be frank, the police have more serious crimes to deal with and they are worried about the balance between that and dealing with the coronavirus lockdown regulations. Really interesting to. Thank you very much, dominic. We can assess the overall picture as we edge towards the News Conference. Lets get some more reaction now, and speak to professor devi sridhar, chair of global Public Health at Edinburgh University medical school. Good afternoon, professor. What is your assessment of the figures, where the uk sits right now, of what is perhaps coming down the track . I guess im saying, how worried are you . I think right now if we look at the numbers, we are following to the same path as france or spain and the longer the government takes to implement measures and communicate them to the public in order to have behavioural changes among us all, the more diet the circumstances become put it what im concerned about is the economy more concerning the circumstances come. What were seeing is that countries that reacted swiftly took small hits to their gdp that reacted swiftly took small hits to theirgdp and that reacted swiftly took small hits to their gdp and the countries that delayed acting, the us, spain, the uk, they took larger hits to gdp, 20 in the case of the states. In a way, letting the virus spread is quite detrimental to economic recovery so it is worrying to see the fire was spreading without having a clear action in place. Interesting you started by talking about behaviour and messaging. We are building up to a News Conference where it will be possible, if the three people talking to us dues do, to address those issues. From your perspective is a Global Health specialist, what do you feel should be said . There are really two m essa 9 es be said . There are really two messages i would want to get across. At the first is that this is a nasty virus, whatever your age. Yes, deaths occur in the elderly and vulnerable populations but you also have a substantial illness, called long covid come in younger people, largely aged 30 59 who can be go from healthy and active to being debilitated for months. The first thing is to be cautious of the virus, and we are seeing reinfection so just because you get it once does not mean you have immunity. You could get it again. I worried about the what what the bible is because i think there is some information about itjust being the flu. Information about itjust being the flu. The virus is. It is safe to get outside, to see your friends and do activity outside. Where we are seeing spreading is inside and in crowded, poorly ventilated places where people spend a lot of time without face coverings. These are where most transmission events occurred so trying to get people to recognise what they can and cannot do safely, we dont need to go down the route of monetary lockdowns with penalties but trying to explain to people exactly why we have this guidance mandatory lockdown is. Trying to get voluntary trust to go with the measures instead of what im seeing which is a cat and mouse game, putting in place legislation and different rules and everybody figuring out how to break them to do what they want to do. It has created an unhealthy dynamic instead of going down the route of we are all in this together at these other things we can do safely together. M is so interesting that you talk about voluntary ways of doing it and building trust. Dont we already know as a nation that you shouldnt be getting close to people and you should be aware, for example, when indoors, if youre in an area that is not well ventilated, dont we know that and havent we seen for whatever reason in some cases ignoring that . Definitely and i think it is around the unhealthy dynamic of trying to break the rules and play down the severity of the virus. Its a very serious virus and i think if that message is communicated to people, also about the inside against outside and they should be differentiation between outside rules and inside rules. I would add, there is a playbook on how to manage this, to keep it at low levels while keep the economy open pond if we look at east asia doing this, germany and italy, to make that European Countries have looked there to build their responses and its three things. Communicating the voluntary guidance to people so they understand why were doing it and how we are in it together, having a functional testing and pricing system, it results back quickly, tracing that rapidly and people isolating and being supported to do so through sick payments or food or other support, and thirdly its strict border measures and so people cant go in and out of the country easily without checks, trying to catch people coming in through testing or quarantine procedures so you dont have constant importation. That is how you save the economy and dont need to go back into lockdown and i wish the uk, like germany and italy, would look to east asia as well. That its really interesting. What is your view of the fact that things can be very different, rules can be different depending on which part of the country you live in . Theres an argument that says that in itself is enormously confusing. What is your ta ke enormously confusing. What is your take on approaching things locally like that . I think it is confusing if you look at how many people you can meet where and inside and outside and households, because its confusing i dont think we can expect people to follow these rules because they dont understand why they make sense. I think we have to dial it back to simple messages, if you want to go out with friends to the park and have a beer, thats probably very safe. If you go to a house party with a bunch of people, this is probably unsafe. May be dialling back on the number of people and households and just basic principles might be a better way. Otherwise its hard to know to keep track of the restrictions on how they change based on where you live, especially as they differ among the four nations and even within england depending on where you live and what you can do legally and according to guidance. Really interesting to talk to you. Professor devi sridhar, the chair over global Public Health at the university of edinburgh. We can pick up some of those thoughts now. Lucy yardley is a professor of Health Psychology at the university of southampton and the university of bristol, and a member of sage, the government Scientific Advisory group. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. We have been looking at some Fascinating Research about peoples reactions and their behaviours in terms of what extent they are prepared to obey the rules are particularly around quara ntining when you come back from holiday, that sort of thing. It is very striking. What would be your message as to why there is, according to research, a substantial proportion of people who are quite prepared to just ignore the rules . of people who are quite prepared to just ignore the rules . I think the data shows that people are notjust ignoring them for trivial reasons, but they are trying to weigh up activities that are incredibly important to them against the risks of infection. Some people feel that, as the last speaker said, they cannot not go to work for financial reasons or for letting down collea g u es reasons or for letting down colleagues and so on. Sometimes people feel that actually they have not been exposed to very much at risk. People are trying to make this balance all the time. There are very few people that are simply ignoring the guidance. The evidence we have is that when people do preach it, usually its a very minor breach and you try to keep it as safe as they can. That is interesting. In terms of the messaging, what would you like to hear from the of the messaging, what would you like to hearfrom the Prime Minister in the next few minutes . like to hearfrom the Prime Minister in the next few minutes . I totally agree with the last speaker about keeping it simple. That the rules had got a terribly complicated, and these kind of top down rules are really not as motivating to people as helping them to understand what they can do to keep themselves and theirfamily safe. They can do to keep themselves and their family safe. And are you saying that there isnt clarity or there could be greater clarity . Should we be trying, the government trying to motivate people to understand why it is in their best interests to follow a certain pattern . Exactly yet, not just exactly yet, notjust motivate them to do it, but help them to understand how to do it better so where everybody is trying to keep this balance between resuming activity that we all need to do not spreading the infection, there is a lot more we can do to help people find the right balance and to support them to do it and help them understand how achieve it. And we have lived with this in this country for many, many months now. Do you think there is still a perception that covid 19 is still viewed as something that brought the effects much older people . Obviously, if you other exceptions, people with Underlying Health conditions and so on. But is there still slightly an incorrect view of the disease that also might impact how somebody behaves . That is exactly part of what we need to get across to people. Actually, more than half of the people that were hospitalised with the infection last time, the first wave, they were not older people. So, ithink first wave, they were not older people. So, i think people have forgotten how dangerous this can be onceit forgotten how dangerous this can be once it gets going and we dont really wa nt once it gets going and we dont really want people to have to rediscover that. I am so sorry to interrupt, i do apologise, but we can see that the Prime Minister has just arrived for the briefing. Last week, i explained that the number of bus two patients going into hospital had doubled in a fortnight and i explained that the rate of infections was climbing steeply covid patients. I said we faced the sad reality that on these figures, we could expect many more daily deaths. And so that is why we announced a package of restrictions and stronger enforcement last week. At the same time, we have been intensifying the local lockdown measures in areas where the disease has been flowing up and i want to say i know how tough it is and has been for these communities flaring up. I want to pay particular tribute to the students experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined. Ican unlike anything they could have imagined. I can assure you and assure everybody at university that plans are being put in place to allow the students home safely for christmas. I wish i could tell you tonight that the impact of this package has already begun to appear, but it will take time to feed through. And yesterday, we saw the biggest rise in daily cases since the pandemic began stop today, a further 7108. We have also had a tragic increase in the number of daily deaths with 71 yesterday and again today. And these figures show why our plan is so essential. We have to stick to it together. And we should stick to it with confidence. Because there are many ways in which we are far better prepared than we we re we are far better prepared than we were in march. We are on track to hit our target of being able to conduct 500,000 tests a day by the end of october, we are already exceeding the number of tests per capita conducted in germany, france and spain. We have over 2,000 beds that could be available across nightingale, seven nightingale hospitals. And we will be able to go further if needed. We have ordered 32 billion items of ppe and we will have a four month stockpile of masks, visors, gowns and other essentials for winter. By december, by the way, we expect uk manufacturers will meet 70 of the demand for ppe compared with just 1 before the pandemic. And in the last six months, we have more than trebled to the availability of mechanical ventilators to our nhs across the uk to 31,500. But the best way forward to protect the nhs, save lives, to keep our children in school and the economy moving is to follow the rules wherever we live. Soi follow the rules wherever we live. So i want to thank everyone for the fantastic National Effort that we are seeing, continuing to see. And no matter how impatient we may be and how fed up we may become, there is only one way of doing this. And thatis is only one way of doing this. And that is by showing a collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices for the safety of others. This critical moment, when i know people will be wanting to know the details, i will be providing regular updates through these press conferences. And i have to be clear, that if the evidence requires it, we will not hesitate to ta ke requires it, we will not hesitate to take further measures that would, i am afraid, be more costly than the ones we have put into effect now. But if we put in the Work Together now, then we give ourselves the best possible chance of avoiding that outcome and avoiding further measures. I know that some people will think we should give up and let the virus take its course, despite the virus take its course, despite the huge loss of life that that would potentially entail. I have to say, i profoundly disagree. I dont think it is what the british people want, i dont think they want to throw in the sponge, they want to fight and defeat this virus. And thatis fight and defeat this virus. And that is what we are going to do. Even as we fight covid, it is vital people get all the treatment they need for other conditions. But it must be clear that if the nhs were to be overwhelmed by covid, then no one could get any such care. And thatis one could get any such care. And that is why we must bear down on this virus now. So that we never reach that point. And i am absolutely confident that with ever increased testing and with better treatments and of course, with the prospect of a vaccine, we will get through this. So, lets follow the rules. Wash our hands, cover our faces, observe social distancing, download the app is 14 million of you have already done. And together, we will fight back against this virus, protect our nhs and save many more lives. I am now going to hand over to chris whitty. Thank you, Prime Minister. First slide, please. I thought it sensible to start looking back over what happened in the first wave of this pandemic in the first wave of this pandemic in the uk and these are the office for National Statistics data showing all cause mortality, which is the most important thing to look at because it includes both the direct deaths from covid in the red line and also the indirect deaths. The excess deaths over the yearly average of more the excess deaths over the yearly average of more courses the excess deaths over the yearly average of more courses because the excess deaths over the yearly average of more courses because as we know and has been discussed many times in these meetings, you can have people who die because the Health Service is overwhelmed or because the Health Service is less able to operate effectively or in the long run because of the Economic Impacts of the interventions we have had. So all cause mortality is critical. If you look at this across various areas of england and the same is true if you look in the other three nations of the united kingdom, what you see is a wave that happened over the period from late march untiljuly happened over the period from late march until july in happened over the period from late march untiljuly in all cause and covid associated mortality and these data are broken down by region. Next slide, please. The pattern we are seeing in the current upswing in covid cases is at this point in time, and this may change, rather different. There is on the left what we have is the total rate in terms of the amount of covid that has been detected on a weekly basis. The darker colours are the higher rates. And as you can see, at this point in time, there is a very heavy concentration in particular areas, in particular, in the north west, the north east and parts of the midlands. But on the right, can see also the increase in covid activity thatis also the increase in covid activity that is happening over the last seven that is happening over the last seven days. Any colour in orange means it is increasing and the darker the colour, the more rapid the increase. So what you can see in this as there is a general increase across the whole of england and the same is also true in scotland, wales and northern ireland, with a few exceptions. But a very rapid increase in particular areas. Again, particularly in the north east, north west and areas of the midlands, but not exclusively. Next slide, please. And this breaks this down into the regions of england. But it also looks at different age groups. And what you can see in each of these areas is the multiple age bands from the dark blue, which are the youngest children, up to the black, for those aged 80 or over. In most regions of england, you are seeing a relatively flat, though gradually raising, picture in terms of numberof gradually raising, picture in terms of number of covid cases over time. But if you look at the north east and the north west and yorkshire and humberand toa and the north west and yorkshire and humber and to a lesser extent the we st humber and to a lesser extent the west midlands, you can see a significant rise now, particularly in younger people, but increasingly also in people who are older and have a greater risk of having a bad outcome. Remembering that young people can also have bad outcomes in terms of prolonged symptoms, even if they do not have a fatal case or one that gets them in intensive care. So this increase as you can see is accelerating quite rapidly in some of those areas. Next slide, please. Some people are worried this might be based just on testing capacity, so be based just on testing capacity, so this is a different way of looking at the same thing, in the same areas. Looking at test positivity rate. And in parts in particular of the north east and the north west, we have moved from a situation whereby age group, the average might have less than 5 of tests being positive, up to a situation where for some age groups, over 15 of tests are now positive. This implies there is a very significant increase in terms of transmission in these areas. Again, quite variable across the country. Next slide, please. It is important to differentiate between different age bands, between younger people and children and young adults. And this isjust to make the point in the dark blue and the light blue colours, we have children 5 10 and 1114. And colours, we have children 5 10 and 11 14. And in green, we have children aged 15 16. And in these groups, currently, the rates are actually really not changing very much. These are School Aged Children in the main. Whereas in older children and young adults, in those 17 up to 21, and the same is true for other young adults, the rates are now going quite rapidly. I have chosen to illustrate it with slide positivity, i could have done this by other means. This is important to rememberwhen by other means. This is important to remember when people worry about schooling, School Age Children is one of the areas where the rates are not going up and this is true across the country. Next slide, please. There is i think some people, some people are wondering whether we could have a situation where the rates of infection are going up, but we are not seeing increases in hospitalisation. So, on this side, it is the admission rates. On the right, the admission rates to hospital. And the intensive care rates on the left by age. And an important thing to see on this is that the dark blue, the dark line at the top and the green line, which is the top and the green line, which is the one below that, in terms of people being hospitalised, they are those 85 and over 75 84. So older people are getting less and they are then having to go into hospital and then having to go into hospital and then transferring, some of them, sadly, into intensive care. Next slide, please. And if we look at the hospitalisation rates across the country, they follow very much the pattern you would expect from the rates of infection. So in the north west, and the north east and yorkshire, the nhs data showed that the rates of hospitalisation are now climbing steadily. They are at a much lower level than they were at the beginning of april, we want to stress that really clearly, but they are definitely heading upward at a now relatively steady and rapid pace. In other areas, now relatively steady and rapid pace. In otherareas, this now relatively steady and rapid pace. In other areas, this is rather slow and london and the midlands are between these areas. Next slide, please. Final slide isjust to look again at the intensive care rates and people who enter intensive care are at significantly increased risk of dying. This is again just are at significantly increased risk of dying. This is againjust showing in the north east and in the north we st in the north east and in the north west in particular, also in london to some extent, we are seeing a significant uptake in the number of people who are entering intensive care. This is not yet at a stage where it is threatening our ability to have intensive care cases, there is still significant capacity in the nhs system, but this is definitely heading the wrong way. The final point i would like to make before we go point i would like to make before we go on tojust point i would like to make before we go on to just an animation looking at the spread over time is about those who do not have covid and it is something which my colleagues in the medical profession have asked me to stress really strongly to people this evening. The nhs is absolutely open for business and it is absolutely theyre not just business and it is absolutely theyre notjust for business and it is absolutely theyre not just for emergencies, for cancer care and other kinds of care, so for cancer care and other kinds of care, so we are not for cancer care and other kinds of care, so we are not saying please dont go to hospital or your gp, absolutely not, we definitely are very keen as a profession as well as within government that that continues, but we are just pointing out that the direction of travel for both hospitals and intensive care is clearly going in the wrong direction particularly in these areas which are seeing rapid increases in cases. We now have an animation. This shows a map over starting in with lighter colours are smaller amount of covid in the first wave and on the right you can see it getting steadily darker, concentrating at that stage in particular around london but also other areas in the midlands, the north and elsewhere. And due to the remarkable effort of the entire nation, everybody coming together, we got out on top of that ways, people were socially distancing, keeping the rules about hands, face and a space, and we had a significant things that lead to people not coming together in households. And the amount of covid we nt households. And the amount of covid went down over time but then it started to come back again, concentrating initially in a small numberof concentrating initially in a small number of places but steadily spreading. Initially in these areas in the north and midlands, primarily not exclusively. But now potentially spreading elsewhere if we do not all ta ke spreading elsewhere if we do not all take all the various issues about social distancing and hands, face and space very seriously. Thank you, chris, and i think the point about the nhs and the capacity and the openness of it to people to go and have their issues dealt with is very important but obviously that becomes much less possible if we get an increased a spike in the disease put we can go to questions from the public. The appropriate support is available across the uk for young people to be able to fulfil their potential moving through these times of uncertainty. As lockdown and covid 19 have affected Young Peoples Mental Health and education and youth and implement has risen. Thank you very much, tia. I think the answer obviously is that we will do everything we can to help young people through this difficult time and you will have seen the package put in place to support people going back to university, working with vice chancellors to get kobe secure at universities and again i thank stu d e nts at universities and again i thank students for the responsible way they are behaving covid secure. In terms of employment for young people, the answer is that we want to help young people get into jobs wherever we possibly can which is why we have launched the kick start plan, £2 million plan to give people support injobs, plan, £2 million plan to give people support in jobs, give plan, £2 million plan to give people support injobs, give employers support injobs, give employers support from the government up to the value of the living wage to support young people into work. And i would also mention what we are doing in terms of training, the lifetime skills guarantee that we announced yesterday to give young people, people in their 20s, the ability to retrain, get the jobs that are out there. And we will do everything we can as i have said repeatedly to put our arms around the workforce, help young people through this pandemic and bounce back as strongly as we can the other side. Thank you very much. We can go to carl from milton keynes. Forgive me, i question. With clearly there are local areas that are under particular restrictions and what you should do is look at the website, if you are in one of those local lockdown areas, to see what restrictions are in place and what restrictions are in place and what guidance you specifically need to obey. What we are not doing at the moment, karl, is going back to the moment, karl, is going back to the situation we were in in march, andi the situation we were in in march, and i really dont want to do this. I dont want to go back to a National Lockdown where the overall guidance is to stay at home. That is not what we are saying. We want to keep the economy moving, we want to keep the economy moving, we want to keep young people, pupils in education, but the only way we can do that is if we all follow the guidance and depress the virus, get it down by following the guidance and keep things moving as much as we possibly can. Thank you, we can go to Laura Kuenssberg from the bbc. We can see today that the limits already in place on millions of people have not stopped the spread and you even had to apologise for failing to explain the rules properly. How can people have confidence in your governments approach and can you give people your honest assessment, how high is the chance of more restrictions come infor the chance of more restrictions come in for everyone, everywhere . And if i could ask also, you spelt out a possible terrible trajectory last week with as many as 50,000 cases per day and the way you did that caused some controversy with seven days of extra data, what do you say it now about how bad this might get . The answer is im afraid entirely dependent on how effective we are now, collectively come in driving down the virus. We know we can do it because we did it before, in march and april, and by collectively working to stop the transmission of the virus from one person to the next, from household to household, as we did in march and april, we greatly reduced the number of deaths and massively reduced transmission. What we have now is a package of measures that we brought forward last week and it is a combination of National Measures, the increased enforcement of the rule of six, the restrictions on hours of hospitality, the measures, intensified measures on a wearing face masks and the basic hands, face, space, National Measures. And with tougher enforcement. And with local lockdown measures as well. What we hope is that if people obey the guidance, fulfil it in the way they can and have in the past, we will get the spread down again, that is what we are working towards and the strategy is to do that whilst keeping the economy open, the vast bulk of the economy open and keeping young people in education and those have to be crucial priorities for our society. I am confident that we can do it together if we follow the guidance but our success will have to bejudged, im afraid, in the days and weeks ahead as we look at the numbers that come in. As i said in my statement earlier, it is still too early to tell whether that budget, that a package of measures, is being successful. And its success depends on all of us working together to follow the guidance. Chris and patrick . There were three messages really we were trying to get across in terms of the data. The first was, if you look at other countries, you can see cases go up followed by spread to older people followed by spread to older people followed by spread to older people followed by hospitalisations and unfortunately, leading to icu and deaths. That looks like what is happening here. The second message was that cases were already increasing at the time we gave that presentation and you could already begin to see increases in hospitalisations which, as chris has shown, have increased further since. The illustration was to point out that epidemics either double or half, they are either growing or shrinking, and doubling means things go very big quite quickly. Things move quickly. When things double, you see that exponential growth which means you end up with very high numbers and it means you have got to act quickly in order to deal with that. As chris has laid out today, we are seeing quite fast growth in some areas of the country, not uniform across the country, but clearly fa st growth not uniform across the country, but clearly fast growth in some areas and those numbers are going up and unfortunately, as we have seen, not only cases going up but we are already seeing an increase in deaths. Things are definitely heading in the wrong direction. I wa nt heading in the wrong direction. I want to make one comment which is quite important to understand when looking at the numbers of cases. The numberof looking at the numbers of cases. The number of cases we are seeing now are picked up because there is much more testing. The number of cases that work reported in march will almost certainly a very big under estimate of the total so it is much more likely that back in march and april, at the peak of this, we were seeing over 100,000 cases per day at certain times whereas of course you we re certain times whereas of course you were only able to measure and report a fraction of that and so it is not a fraction of that and so it is not a like for like comparison. A fraction of that and so it is not a likeforlike comparison. Thank you. Robert peston from itb. a likeforlike comparison. Thank you. Robert peston from itb. If you go back to the beginning of august and track infections in england and scotla nd and track infections in england and scotland they have risen massively faster in scotland from itv. In england there was a much bigger problem in the north east and north west in terms of rapid rise and incident of the virus so can you explain why there is this a very big difference between the northern part of the country and the rest of the country . And secondly, 71 deaths on march 21 there were 71 deaths, today and yesterday there have been 71. In march we were two days away from full lockdown, you dont think things are as bad or as urgent in terms of more remedial measures as then so what is the difference . will ask chris and patrick to comment on the epidemiology, the localisation of the disease and the difference in the rate of spread between now and march the 21st. But clearly, a point i would make somebody trying to get the disease down across the whole country is i think it is possible there is a difference now in the way the disease is expressing itself in the country. We are seeing some clear local peaks, country. We are seeing some clear local pea ks, just country. We are seeing some clear local peaks, just as i think, and chris has made this point to me and publicly, just as there were local peaksin publicly, just as there were local pea ks in italy publicly, just as there were local peaks in italy and other countries. It may be, and it is too early to say, but it may be that this is a more localised phenomenon this time in which case all the more reason for us to concentrate on these local solutions as well at the national solutions. I think on the point about the rate of climb of the disease between now and much, its an interesting point. Patrick might wa nt an interesting point. Patrick might want to add to this. If you look around europe during the first wave that happened here, the uk was actually an outlier in having an epidemic that was almost uniform in shape although not absolutely in size across the whole country and if you look at italy and spain for example, significant epidemics but very highly concentrated. It is possible that in this next stage of the epidemic here, we will have a patent more like that which is more highly concentrated in certain areas, lower rates in others, but its far too early to say a pattern. We have a long way to a head and a lot could happen but i think to predict forward from here would be a big mistake but its certainly possible that if we all Work Together, if everybody follows the guidance, then we could actually contain it within the areas where it is in the way that happened, to some degree, in italy and spain. In terms of where we are compared to where we we re of where we are compared to where we were in march, you are absolutely right in terms of your numbers and patrick and i had the privilege of being both too pessimistic and optimistic on the numbers but that reality is the doubling time at the moment is slower than it was in march, when it was 3 4 days. That was one big difference and one of the problems we had in the first wave was we initially underestimated how fast the doubling was occurring at that stage. It is very important we dont do that a second time because once exponential growth starts, as patrick said, things go very quickly. Also we are going up from a base, the tale of the first wave in terms of deaths still are coming and then you want on top so it is not a straight like for like comparison. But you are completely right that this small number of deaths now should not reassure us that we will not be in relatively short order in quite a difficult places, certainly in the recent where we are seeing Significant Growth at the moment where pressure on the nhs could happen sooner rather than later if we dont get on top of it really quite fast. Numbers of cases are going up, hospitalisations are going up, icu is going up and unfortunately and sadly, so our deaths. That means that this is heading in the wrong direction, there is no cause for complacency at all. And sticking to the social distancing rules, this virus spreads because of close contact in certain environments. We all need to make sure we reduce the numberof all need to make sure we reduce the number of contacts we have got, we need to reduce contact in certain environments, digitally indoor spaces, poorly ventilated. And we need to make sure we reduce the probability of coming into contact with somebody who is infected by all of us making sure that if we have symptoms or we are contacted, we isolate and keep out of circulation. It is absolutely critical. Thank you very much and thank you, robert. Sky news . At the last press conference when you announced the rule of six, your parting words were socialising at gatherings of no more than six inside or out, that is the way i think we can beat the current outbreak. But three weeks later, the numbers are clearly going in the wrong direction. Hejust said you are prepared to introduce National Measures if the evidence requires it. Have you three agreed a threshold at which you will have to introduce National Measures . And to professor chris whitty, the covid Surveillance Survey shows the buy was has overwhelmingly spread within households or people visiting other households. And yet on this measure different nations have gone in different nations have gone in different directions. Is that because different chief medical officers have offered different scientific advice or down to different political Decision Making . And are you personally mixing with other household at the moment . Just on yourfirst just on your first question, i think the best thing i can say is we keep all of this under constant review and as you can imagine, ministers and as you can imagine, ministers and officials are really meeting more or less round the clock the whole time, watching what is going on. The jvc, department of health, we are watching round the clock what is happening in all the areas where we have cause for concern. And as i said earlier on, we will keep all measures under review. We really dont want to go back into the kind of stay at home National Lockdown that we saw in march and april. That is not what we want to do. We think that we can beat it by other means, we think we can beat it together by the means we have described. But we have got to watch what is happening and we will. On the question specifically to me, the reality is that in Different Countries, we are all broadly using the same groups of things we are doing. I think people always highlight the differences. In fa ct, always highlight the differences. In fact, the similarities between responses are considerably more striking than that. But there are inevitably variations and a lot of them to do with what is the traditions about how things are operated and how people spray people socialise in different areas which vary between Different Countries and some of it is between what works in a local environment. We are all trying to pick our very difficult way between doing not enough and therefore not getting on top of this virus and doing too much, where we do get on top of the virus but do unnecessary harm socially and economically. It is the Economic Impact of that unhealthy in the long run it would be substantial. So trying to find a way through and it is slightly different in Different Countries and a bit more than slightly different in some cases, but the differences are always highlighted and the similarities i think are actually much more striking. In terms of, do i follow the guidance and the rules . I try absolutely to do whatever the local guidance is locally. And i also have change my behaviour, as i suspect everybody watching this has changed their behaviour since this epidemic began. And if the rules tightened up, i will try and follow the new rules. That is completely what we all should be doing because thatis what we all should be doing because that is the only way we collectively are going to get on top of this. Thanks very much, chris. The daily mirror. Given everything we have seen and heard over the last couple of weeks, i wonder whether professor whitty and sir patrick, you have any concerns that the government may not be going far enough and fast enough to get the r rate control . Prime minister, if you look at shops and on public transport, it is quite clear there are still those are people not Wearing Masks of following the guidance, what would your message be to them . Well, firstly, let me just say what i have said to everybody. Please follow the guidance. Bear in mind that you are doing its not just guidance. Bear in mind that you are doing its notjust to protect your neighbour, but ultimately, so because somebody you transmit the disease to could infect somebody you love. It is crucial we stop the spread of this disease, you wear a mask on transport in the way recommended and bear in mind the fines are now very considerable. And they will be imposed. Well, in terms of your first question, it is very clear rates are still going up. So we dont have this under control at the moment. And the increases chris has described in some areas are of concern. Has described in some areas are of concern. And as i have said, they will need to further problems. So it is incredibly important that the adherence to the principles of trying to reduce contact in the way i have described are critical to get this under control. And the decisions that need to be made are clearly very difficult, none of them are risk free. They all come with some cost and that is human cost in some cost and that is human cost in some form or another. Science can provide advice on the situation, ministers need to make decisions as to when and how to act. Thanks very much, patrick, and thank you. Chris smith, of the times. Thank you, can a firstly pick up on what patrick said about the need to isolate if you have symptoms . A survey by the government and its scientific advisers showed under 20 of people with symptoms are not contacted by test and trace, y and does that not undermine national and regional restrictions in place . On the point about the localised nature of the outbreak, are you saying the Government Strategy is to come down ha rd over Government Strategy is to come down hard over the winter in the north of england in order to spare london and elsewhere tougher restrictions . Can ijust elsewhere tougher restrictions . Can i just have a elsewhere tougher restrictions . Can ijust have a go at the elsewhere tougher restrictions . Can i just have a go at the second point, chris . What we want to do is to stamp out, to bear down on the virus in such a way as to get the r down below one where we need to do that most, and that is clearly in the areas that we have identified. That is why the extra restrictions coming in in those areas, and the faster we can get it done, the better. It is all about compliance. Any doubt at all about what to do in those areas, get on the website and check out what the restrictions are. But working together, i have absolutely no doubt that we can do it. Maybe i will have a go at the first one and chris can come back. Asa first one and chris can come back. As a general comment, it would be wrong to take from this that this is a problem only in certain areas, it is worse in certain areas, but there is worse in certain areas, but there is evidence of spread everywhere. We need to be mindful of that and Everyone Needs to take precautions across the country. Your comment about isolation, it is very, very important that isolation does occur. The point of testing is not to get a result, on its own, it is to make sure that you take action and isolation is clearly part of that. It is important for symptoms and it is important for context. If we dont isolate, we will end up with more people circulating well, you dont want anyone circulating ideally, but people circulating and giving the virus to us. So the isolation is important and you are right, the study that came out a few weeks ago suggested low levels of self declared intent to isolate. And that was from a few months ago. I think the figures more recently may suggest a slightly more positive picture, but it is for all of us to do. It is something you cant literally enforce upon people, it is something we need to do and take accountability for because by not isolating, we are increasing the chance that others will catch it and of course, it will spread amongst the age groups and cause the problems we have described. Chris. The only thing to add is that i think when you look at polling or other data, the great majority of people are very supportive of this and wish to do it. The support for this is stronger because people wish to get on top of this because they realise this is the way you can protect their neighbours, their families and the nhs. That is really clear i think and has been remarkably consistent, and it is strong tribute, as always, to the remarkable altruism of the british people. Listening to this, i realise there is a slight danger of people getting the wrong message from this, in the sense that, yes, of course, you are right to pick this up, yes, of course, it is more acute in these particular local areas. But it is vital to stress that this remains a National Threat and a National Challenge and we all have to fight it together. We cantjust expect it to be solved in the parts of the country which we think are particularly affected, it is down to all of us. Jonathan walker, newcastle journal and chronicle. Hello, Prime Minister. Underthe restrictions in place in the north east, a person cannot legally visit their parents in the back garden, but they can legally set with five friends in a pub beer garden, although they are advised not to. Can you explain the logic behind these rules and what help is available to businesses struggling to understand and enforce these rules in the north east . Also, if i may, in addition, have you considered thejust as may, in addition, have you considered the just as complex National Rules have to be replaced by something simpler with the rule of six and there may be something similar with local lockdown is . What we are trying to do here is to fight it nationally with a package of measures that i think everybody is familiar with. Hands, face, space, the rule of six, the reduction in hospitality hours and so fourth. Locally, in the north east, what we are also doing is restricting contact. You cant meet in your own household group, inside, whether at home or in hospitality settings. That is the rule. And you cannot socialise outside. And of course, people will pick up on various discrepancies or complications, complexities that have arisen as a result of this local approach. The best thing i can tell you is, jonathan, everybody in the north east or elsewhere, in merseyside, the midlands, everywhere where there are local restrictions, get on the websites, look at precisely what you need to do. But so much of this is about common sense. And about following the basics of the guidance, and just restricting the possibility of transmission from yourself to somebody else, or from somebody else to you. And i think people do instinctively know understand how to do that. The more we do that, the more efficiently we do that, the better the chance we all have of getting this virus down. Thank you very much, jonathan. Thank you, everybody. See you next time, thank you. So, the Prime Minister borisjohnson ending that local latest briefing at downing street and he said there will be more such briefings. Our Health Correspondent lauren moss is beside me. If we start with the science and the figures, it really interesting, very striking language from professor chris whitty and sir Patrick Vallance and both of them at 1. I Patrick Vallance and both of them at u think used that phrase, well, it is going in the wrong direction. Yes, more than once, actually, that was said. This briefing at a press conference felt very much like a warning, didnt it . The Prime Minister borisjohnson said we may see more of these briefings a bit like we did several, six months ago, five months ago, when we had the daily briefings. We are not at that point yet, but this is the second in a week we have had with the chief science officer and chief medical advisor as well. Like you say, the admissions, hospital admissions, we talk about that more in a moment, but going in the wrong direction, we are not where we were at in april and may. Things are not heading in the right direction, especially in certain areas of the country. In no end no undisputed terms, this is an additional an issue nationally, although some areas are seeing an increase more than others, but this is an issue nationally. 7108 positive cases, the second day ina row 7108 positive cases, the second day in a row they have gone over 7,000 and another 71 deaths confirmed on hospital admission numbers rising, 2250 people in hospital. We will talk more about the politics of it in the coming minutes. It was interesting borisjohnson said right at the beginning he was trying to stress that he thinks the country is better prepared than it was, but we will talk about that in a moment. I was struck by professor chris whitty who was really strong that he had spoken to a lot of friends and collea g u es spoken to a lot of friends and colleagues within the health words health world more broadly and he wa nted health world more broadly and he wanted to stress the nhs, despite all of this, is still open. That was striking, i thought. Yes, he said the nhs is very much open to business for all care and he stressed cancer ca re open to business for all care and he stressed cancer care as well, it is this balancing. This increase in cases and hospital admissions, around the 2,000 figure, 20,000 in april, said there is a big difference. Although those admissions are climbing, they are not where they were and the nhs is still very much functioning and open for business. We were shown a couple of slides in the briefing. This is where we can see more clearly what is happening with covid and how it is affecting the population rather than just on positive cases, the numbers are much lower than they were at their peak and those over the age of 85 have had the most significant increase and although we were told a few weeks ago that the majority of cases would be led among the younger age groups, you can see it is spreading among older age groups is well, those aged 75 84 and 65 74 hospital admissions and it translating into intensive care admissions, those who are most unwell with covid 19 and needing extra support. Again, in those sane age groups, 75 84, 60 574 those sane age groups, 75 84, 60 5 74 and recently climbing among 85 plus. And there was a breakdown among the regions which is led by the rate of infection which they we re very the rate of infection which they were very clear, showing the areas of the north east and yorkshire, slightly slower in the north west, but climbing and london sharply rising along with the midlands as well, those admissions. So if you look at the lines, they are quite striking, the numbers are still small, but climbing and that is not the direction they want them to go. And are you personally mixing with other household at the moment . The direction they want them to go. And that was the point that they made, that it was not going in that direction we wanted. Thank you very much. Lets get the views now of sir mark walport, who was the government chief scientific adviser from 2013 to 2017 and is now a member of sage, the governments Scientific Advisory group for emergencies. Good afternoon. What struck you about the messages as well as the fa cts about the messages as well as the facts in that briefing . The briefing was mainly about the numbers and im afraid they are fairly stark. If you look back to the beginning of september, there were three deaths on the 1st of september and two weeks later, 27, 37 a week ago and now at 71 on each of the last two days. I thought chris whitty made an important point which is that one of the things that did distinguish the uk from some other European Countries was when the infection came in, the animation was clear they showed, it was widely distributed. But the problem is that it is still very widely distributed and therefore there is a risk across the country, although quite clear its going up faster particularly in urban areas, in the north east and north west, but you can see the intensive care admissions going up sharply in london. It is our behaviours that will determine the outcome and the outcome is very much in the balance. And when you say our behaviours, it is about whether further restrictions come into place. This is where we get the interesting cross between science and politics because politicians at the balance of the risk to the economy as we know. They do indeed. And the critical thing is a social distancing. That is the feature that is absolutely critical and the question is the extent to which people do it on a voluntary basis and the extent to which more and more rules are needed. At the end of the day, this will only come under control and not continue to expand if people observe the social distancing really very strictly and obviously they wear face coverings, they do observe scrupulous hand hygiene product it is space which is the thing that matters the most. Add to that point there are plenty of things which can be done in a social context, businesses and offices, but ultimately we all live in homes and a lot of us live with other people in homes and therein potential is an issue . Thats absolutely right it is about households not mixing. But its interesting to look across europe as well where you can see there is a common denominator to the approaches taken, which is that as far as possible, people are trying to keep Economic Activity going, keep peeping in work, in education, but in order to do that, we have to be much stricter in social distancing in terms of our social activity. Keeping people in work. That is the difficult trade off politicians are having to make. that is the difficult trade off politicians are having to make. I am interested for your thoughts on another point, because i was chatting to a professor of Public Health before this briefing who said, i wish there was more articulation of how brutal this disease can be. We have to get away from the notion that this is only something that affects older people or people with an Underlying Health condition and we need to perhaps talk about the long term impact more on younger people who get it. Thats absolutely right. Obviously the stark sadistic is mortality but its perfectly clear stark statistic. May 20 30 percent of young people have a chronic illness and end up debilitated for what we dont know how long afterwards because it is such a new disease. It is not something you want to get, its a very unpleasant infection, although it is also the case that young people tend to get it, on the whole, much more mildly. The vulnerable are particularly the older and people from ethnic minorities as well. Sir mark walport, thank you for your time. If you are just mark walport, thank you for your time. If you arejustjoining us here on bbc news, we can try to give you a summary of the briefing we have had at number 10. Borisjohnson has tried to reassure the public that the uk will get through the coronavirus pandemic while warning that infections were increasing. Speaking in the past hour, during a News Conference, he said it was too early to tell if National Restrictions imposed last week were having an impact on the spread of coronavirus. But he insisted that he would not hesitate to take further measures if the evidence required it. Measures he said would be most costly than the ones currently in effect. The governments chief medical officer said the virus they said the rise in cases is being led by young people. This is a little of what the Prime Minister said. I said that we faced the sad reality that on these figures, we could expect many more daily deaths. And so that is why we announced a package of restrictions and stronger enforcement last week. At the same time, we have been intensifying the local lockdowns in areas where the disease has been flaring up and i want to say i know how tough it is and has been for these communities. I want to pay particular tribute to the students experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined. I can assure you and assure everybody at universities that plans are being put in place to allow the students home safely for christmas. I wish i could tell you tonight that the impact of this package has already begun to appear, but it will take time to feed through. And yesterday, we saw the biggest rise in daily cases since the pandemic began. Today, a further 7108. We have also had a tragic increase in the number of daily deaths, with 71 yesterday and again today. And these figures show why our plan is so essential. We have to stick to it together. And we should stick to it with confidence. Because there are many ways in which we are far better prepared than we were in march. We are on track to hit our target of being able to conduct 500,000 tests a day by the end of october, we are already exceeding the number of tests per capita conducted in germany, france and spain. We have over 2,000 beds that could be available across nightingale, seven nightingale hospitals. And we will be able to go further if needed. We have ordered 32 billion items of ppe and we will have a four month stockpile of masks, visors, gowns and other essentials for winter. By december, by the way, we expect uk manufacturers will meet 70 of the demand for ppe compared withjust1 before the pandemic. And in the last six months, we have more than trebled the availability of mechanical ventilators to our nhs across the uk to 31,500. But the best way forward, to protect the nhs, save lives, to keep our children in school and the economy moving, is to follow the rules wherever we live. So i want to thank everyone for the fantastic National Effort that we are seeing, continuing to see. And no matter how impatient we may be and how fed up we may become, there is only one way of doing this. And that is by showing a collective forbearance, common sense and willingness to make sacrifices for the safety of others. At this critical moment, when i know people will be wanting to know the details, i will be providing regular updates through these press conferences. And i have to be clear, that if the evidence requires it, we will not hesitate to take further measures that would, i am afraid, be more costly than the ones we have put into effect now. But if we put in the Work Together now, then we give ourselves the best possible chance of avoiding that outcome and avoiding further measures. I know that some people will think we should give up and let the virus take its course, despite the huge loss of life that that would potentially entail. I have to say, i profoundly disagree. I dont think it is what the british people want, i dont think they want to throw in the sponge, they want to fight and defeat this virus. And that is what we are going to do. Even as we fight covid, it is vital people get all the treatment they need for other conditions. But it must be clear that if the nhs were to be overwhelmed by covid, then no one could get any such care. And that is why we must bear down on this virus now, so that we never reach that point. And i am absolutely confident that with ever increased testing and with better treatments and of course, with the prospect of a vaccine, we will get through this. So, lets follow the rules. Wash our hands, cover our faces, observe social distancing, download the app, as 14 million of you have already done. And together, we will fight back against this virus, protect our nhs and save many more lives. That was just a section of the news 01 25 53,286 4294966103 13 29,430 conference at an labour layer keir
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