This is bbc news these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. A brexit announcement is expected in the coming hours, are as the signs from london and brussels suggest a deal is close. The remaining differences between the two camps have been narrow but deep in particular over fishing rights. More than 6,000 lorries spend another night stranded outside the port of dover with drivers waiting to be tested for covid 19 before theyre allowed into france. Stay at home from boxing day. The message to another 6 Million People in england as the toughest level of covid restrictions are widened. President trump has issued another round of pardons among them two key allies who were convicted over the russia inquiry. The sun has risen in bethlehem on this miss eve, but how many people will be able to make the journey to Midnight Mass at the church of the nativity at this time of coronavirus . Hello and welcome if youre watching in the uk or around the world. Im geeta guru murthy. The uk and the European Union are on the brink of an historic post brexit trade and security deal, ending nearly a year of bitter wrangling. An announcement that the two sides have secured an agreement on their future relationship, which will avoid import taxes on each others goods is expected this morning. But yet again, fishing is the issue theyre stuck on
and a News Conference expected earlier is being delayed. Negotiators from both sides talked through the night in brussels and are continuing to hammer out the details. To westminster and our political correspondent, iain watson. We expected to hear about a phone call between borisjohnson and ursula von der leyen. Is that happening . It will take place shortly, and it is usually significant. It is on that call that the deal will be, verbally at least, agreed. The deal will be sealed at the end of that telephone call, barring any last minute hitches. It is expected that, if the call is going to take place in the next half an hour, then once the phone has hung up, then the brexit deal will be sealed. Parliament has to be recalled to ratify the deal next
week, and retrospective ratification of any deal by the European Parliament is expected early in the new year. We then get the details of what was agreed, 2000 page document covering our future trading relationship with the eu, but also other issues including security and data sharing. It will exclude some of the things people had been pressing for agreement on, including Financial Services, worth about 80 of the british economy. That will be dependent on unilateral decisions largely by the European Union, but that trade deal will, we will get back, and from downing street was my point of view, what they would fully expect to see after these often fractious negotiations is what is called tariff free and quota free access to the eu Single Market. In other words exports from the uk to the eu not being taxed and there are limits on the amount of goods that can be sold. At the margins, if
those goods include components from outside the eu and uk they may attract some charges but by and large the Free Trade Agreement that borisjohnson has large the Free Trade Agreement that Boris Johnson has been large the Free Trade Agreement that borisjohnson has been seeking will be delivered. There will have been huge compromises along the way but we will have to look at the detail of the text to find out exactly where. Is he likely to secure the public support of the group known as the er g, the real brexit enthusiasts . We have been seeing nigel farage giving an interview saying that he suspected the uk would remain too closely aligned to the eu, their deals, is it going to be allowed to become singapore, a dynamic economy, not necessarily, says nigel farage. Boris johnson will be looking at bank of england forecasts suggesting that, irrespective of the crisis covid has caused, the uk economy would be likely to shrink by another 2 , which sound small but is huge in terms ofjobs and national income. Ifa terms ofjobs and national income. If a deal was not struck. That said, id expect some brexiteers to be looking at this incredibly sceptically, critically, to ask questions as to whether Boris Johnson has delivered on his pledge on sovereignty in particular. We know from the eu as well as uk celsius, on fishing, a hugely contentious issue, the uk has agreed toa contentious issue, the uk has agreed to a longer phasing in of the arrangements although the eu has compromised and come down from their demands as well. And the eu will give up some of the fishing catch, perhaps around one quarter but not as much as some of the long standing brexiteers would have wished. That said, borisjohnson brexiteers would have wished. That said, Boris Johnson has brexiteers would have wished. That said, borisjohnson has been calling some members of the European Research group, some of the brexiteers in his own ranks, unlike nigel farage, who is outside of the party, and some of them seem on the basis of what have untold, they seem to be relatively pleased with what the Prime Minister has achieved but
said also that they will get lawyers to look at the detail of this, and go over it with a fine tooth comb before deciding how to vote, but i should point out at this stage it is not expected that this deal will be thrown out by the british parliament, it is expected the vast majority of labour mps will back this because the alternative of no deal would be thought to be worse, and newly elected conservative mps who promised constituents they would get a deal are likely to back it. Ian and watson in westminster, thank you, watching all things for us from millbank. We will get back to you for further updates. Lets go to our europe coprrespondent, gavin lee. What more do we know of this phone call between borisjohnson and ursula von der leyen, what more do
we know . Talks have not yet finished. They are still talking about fish. 0n the highest law of this building the lights were on and they were going through, species by species, herring by herring, every single species, who gets access to what and for how long, the eu gets access until we think after about five years the uk gets to decide who has access from that point. We are ina has access from that point. We are in a position where, we are waiting, we havent had the readout of when the press conference is going to be, but we are maybe a couple of hours, im aware that i keep saying this, you keep slipping back, but the deal should be announced. Stepping back, 4. 5 years ago i was here when the commissioners came out, Member States, officials, in shock at the referendum result that britain was leaving after all that time. I have have a few grey hairs since then,
but the negotiators, gosh knows what they have been through. The pizzas we re they have been through. The pizzas were delivered last night to keep them going through the night. What we are looking at is this narrow, comparatively, trade deal for britain starting onjanuary one. Things will change. The idea is that there will be tariff free barriers disappearing for lots of goods and products and quota free as well so you can have as much as you want going back and forward, but there will still be facility fees so it will still be facility fees so it will not be the Single Market, they are out of the Customs Union, so there will be more checks, and for ordinary people, what people get is crucial detail, hopefully, when we see the text, what will happen when im driving in europe, from january, what happens to my pet passport, what happens to my pet passport, what happens to european medical insurance, Big Questions for the ordinary person. Hopefully, we will get some more light as the day continues. I was going to ask, how will my life change, you are in brussels, i am will my life change, you are in brussels, iam in will my life change, you are in brussels, i am in london, will my life change, you are in brussels, iam in london, what will my life change, you are in brussels, i am in london, what are we going to notice on the ist of
january . Neither of us presumably own a company doing any trade across the border, so how will things change . It is interesting. At the moment if you want to bring in a pet under no deal conditions, you need to have rabies equivalent vaccinations, for dogs, getting down to the minutiae, terms that could change with the deal, could be better terms for travel in the short term, getting an International Drivers licence, the uk eu driving license may have been acceptable, it may come down to personal qualifications. Will my qualifications. Will my qualifications be recognised elsewhere in europe . All of that sort of detail has been discussed. Trade organisations and businesses have said, it will drop tariffs for livestock but not seed potatoes for example. We may laugh but for some industries, that is massive. It matters, were talking about millions of pounds that are traded
back and forth. Things will change. All of the Member States will have to go through 2000 pages of legal text, in english, rememberthe to go through 2000 pages of legal text, in english, remember the other Member States have got to sign this off after the deal is agreed, not in the 23 other official languages of the 23 other official languages of the eu, and it will not be ratified and agreed by the European Parliament before the end of this year. We expect that if Member States agree they will send it back to brussels, we get a written statement from the European Commission president ursula von der leyen, saying be provisionally accepted this, that the Eu Parliament will accept it later, the Uk Parliament will accept it before the end of the year. That is the process as we see it. Gavin, in brussels, thank you very much. The eu and the uk have been locking horns over a number of issues during the stalks. There were a number of key sticking points that proved difficult to navigate in recent weeks. We can get more and that now from chris morris. What have been
the difficult bits to get through . There has been lots of discussion in recent days on fishing. Species by species. Anyone who thought that taking back control of fishing meant 100 control immediately is going to be disappointed. This is a negotiation. There was always going to be compromised. The british fishing fleet doesnt have the capacity to catch all the fish currently caught by the eu boats in uk waters anyway. It is about the transition and where we are now to Something Different in future. Initially, the uk wanted 80 of the value of the fish currently caught by eu boats in uk waters to be returned, 80 . The initial eu offer was 18 . The compromise is going to bea was 18 . The compromise is going to be a lot closer, to begin with, to the eu position but, in the long run, the uk will gain more and more control over its fishing waters. Politically, this may be incredibly important. Among a small minority there will be a betrayal narrative. We havent gone to taking back control of our waters in full but economically fishing is a minnow. It is about much bigger things, this deal. There is going to be tariff free access to the Single Market. Great for businesses, but it is about the terms in which that tariff free access can continue in future. 0verall, will businesses find that they are losing or gaining . Many businesses that trade across the border will not recognise the idea that this is going to be cutting red tape. For them, frankly, this is laughable, because there will be new bureaucracy, new costs, new barriers, new delays, because even though there are no tariffs at borders there will be other bits of borders there will be other bits of border bureaucracy that have to go through. Some of it will be british
red tape, some of it will be european, but the idea that there will be less red tape for people trading across borders is frankly a fa ntasy. Trading across borders is frankly a fantasy. It is true that, over time, the uk has won the right to back away from eu regulation more generally. Again, it comes down to the detail of what happens if it exercises that right. In what circumstances can the eu strike back, if the uk decides to move away from the eu, regulation, and can, for example, if the uk decides to reach an agreement in one area, can the eu hit back with tariffs or taxes in another area . The eu hit back with tariffs or taxes in another area . So through the detail of that economic relationship which, compared to fishing, involves billions of pounds of business now and in future, that is what is important for businesses that trade with europe. In terms of the uk being able to fundamentally
changing its economic model or doing fantastic trade terms with other parts of the world, what does this deal mean for that . In terms of trade deals the uk has the right to do its own independent trade deals around the world. That is one of the things the government promised. It has been delivered. It is no longer in the Customs Union. But we have to be clear about what that means. The governments own estimate is that a free trade deal with the United States for exa m ple free trade deal with the United States for example would add 0. 16 to the size of our economy over 15 yea rs. To the size of our economy over 15 years. Whereas, the office for budget responsibility thinks the current repaid deal we think is going to be done with the eu will cut 4 . So 0. I6 , cutting 4 , the deal with the eu, compared to staying as an eu member state. So, it is going to be. That is less growth. We will still be growing but
ata growth. We will still be growing but at a slower rate. The bigger the economy is, the more money circulates, the morejobs potentially there are going to be. It is going to be difficult to replace the trade we are going to lose with europe, because we are putting up barriers between ourselves and them, with the trade deals we will do around the world. So it is a very long term bet on those parts of the world that are growing more quickly, compared to the vast amount of trade we do with our next door neighbours. The vast amount of trade we do with our nextdoor neighbours. Just very quickly, is our life going to change much from the ist of january, those of us that dont trade, but in other ways, how will we notice this . We will notice more things. There will be more bureaucracy across borders for traders, as well as for travellers. So if you have six months on your passport you cannot go with just months on your passport you cannot go withjust a months on your passport you cannot go with just a few weeks left. You will probably need more, you will
need car insurance, health insurance, although sorts of things, and there may be small things we notice, such as it is more difficult to get a parcel delivered from europe, because there will be border formalities. We are putting up little bits bureaucracy if you like. But one of the main aims of the brexiteers was to take back control of money, borders and laws. If sovereignty is your thing, whatever it means, you can certainly make an argument that this agreement will gain you more sovereignty. But it is difficult to exercise sovereignty in a world that is so interconnected. That is what this government and successive governments will be juggfing successive governments will be juggling with, for years to come, in a relationship with our nearest neighbours. It is not over, is it . No, it is not. We will be back with chris once we have more details and a confirmation of a deal. I spoke earlier to the former uk trade negotiator david henig about how the
deal might look. There will be new barriers to trade between the uk and eu. The deal doesnt prevent those. We are expecting talks to continue into the new year. It will not be anything like a seamless trading relationship. But it is certainly going to be better than no deal, and it lays the framework down for further cooperation between the uk and eu, so it is significant the Prime Minister has decided to go for this deal. If you look at the whole framing of the last 4. 5 years, we were in a very tight, close, relationship. The vote, ultimately, didnt hinge on fish. A lot of the other issues were about the idea of sovereignty, immigration. Where do we stand now on those key issues that people perhaps thought they were voting on . It compromises in a number of areas. Clearly, this is a looser relationship with the eu,
but it is a relationship, we will be linked in with the eu in many ways. We will have closer control over immigration. That was the red line that there may established as Prime Minister, and has continued, but it is certainly a compromise. There is no question that the uk has got everything it wanted, for example we dont have the same access to the Single Market but without any of the obligations which is what was being talked about at various points. It is a more distant relationship but also the basis on which a future relationship can be built and i suspect this is not the end of the story. It may be as a headline media story, but there will continue to be developments in the uk eu relationship in the future. Is it possible to sum up what the uk has gained and lost as a result of this . I know we dont have the deal but the broad outline agreements are out there. In broad outline, we have agreed
quite a compromise on fish, where we havent taken immediate control of all of our waters and an immediate high uplift in the fish we can catch, but that is phased in over six years. We have accepted there have to be a number of fair competition provisions, in return for a deal, the so called level Playing Field conditions, and there are a number of areas in which we havent yet heard about uk progress, such as Financial Services and data equivalence. We suspect we havent really got what we wanted in those areas. It is a fairly thin deal, in return for some commitments, but perhaps not as strong commitment as the eu had wanted. Former trade negotiator david henig, there. In terms of the compromises
that have been made, what do we know now on the detail . We havent seen the deal itself so we cant comment too much on the detail but we know compromises have been made. 0ne too much on the detail but we know compromises have been made. One of the key one of the key compromises is over fisheries. The key one of the key compromises is overfisheries. It looks as though the end position is closer to what the eu was asking for than what the uk was asking for. But, nevertheless, the uk will be bringing back its share of fishing that can be taken out of uk waters so that the eu will be conceding something, they are. We know there has been compromised on a level Playing Field. That is ensuring that, if uk regulations diverged from eu regulations for example on Environmental Standards or taxation or state aid, that comes with some kind of consequence, to prevent either side from undercutting the other. We know that there have been compromises there. There have been compromises there. There have been compromises on rules of origin stop
thatisif compromises on rules of origin stop that is if a product is built in the uk but built from parts shifted in from elsewhere in the world, does it count as uk built for the purposes of getting into the eu, free of quotas and tariffs . The big takeaway from all of this is that goods at least will be able to be sent across the border in both directions, free of tariffs and quotas. We suspect the deal will not include services and, dont forget, services are a substantial part of the uk economy. In terms of uk dealings with the eu, has the uk gained anything, compared with how we were, pre exit . M depends how you evaluate gains. The uk has gained the right to conclude its own trade deals. It gained that by leaving the eu and the Customs Union and the Single Market. If sovereignty is what you are talking about, it has gained a greater share
of the fish in uk waters, greater control over its own waters, but theres a price to be paid, and that is greater action at the borders. For example, although goods will be able to travel in and out of the uk without tariffs, that is taxes being imposed on them without quotas, there will still be border formalities, and theirs will take time and therefore they will effectively come at a cost financially as well. We will have less access to the eu Service Market and that matters for the city of london. It makes it harderfor Financial Companies to offer central products in the European Union, they need to set up eu based subsidiaries, which many have already done. It depends what you mean bya already done. It depends what you mean by a win. The uk government set out to separate the uk, as far as possible, from the regulatory and institutional setup of the European Union. But that entails moving further away in terms of trade. Very
clear, thank you very much indeed, theo leggett, our business correspondence. Maddy thimont jack is associate director on brexit at the institute for government which describes itself as a think tank working to make government more effective. Shejoins me now. Has this just has thisjust added has this just added a whole load of red tape and extra complications for businesses even though much of the criticism of the eu from brexiteers was that it bound as up . |j criticism of the eu from brexiteers was that it bound as up . I think thatis was that it bound as up . I think that is right. The agreement the uk is looking for with the eu will introduce new barriers to trade across borders. We will be leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. Previously we didnt need customs checks or paperwork and that will now be in place. Trading with the eu will look more like trading with the rest of the world, and as your previous correspondents talked about it will be more difficult for people
to move to the eu, to travel to the eu, to work in the eu, there are new barriers coming and this was a choice the government decided to make, so that in their terms they could take back more control of what the uk was, going forward. Could take back more control of what the uk was, going forwardlj could take back more control of what the uk was, going forward. I dont know if you have heard any more about the timing of one announcement ofa about the timing of one announcement of a deal. We were expecting an announcement already, but there seem to be some delays, some final pictures, what do you think they are stuck on and what to expect on timing . We woke up inspecting an announcement at 7am and it is 1030, and we havent heard anything. It is difficult to predict what when we will hear that there will be a deal, although there is going to be one at some point today, and the noise seems to be that it is fish they are stuck on, going through, species by species, establishing the breakdown in terms of the uk and eu access. It has been fished for the last few
days and it still is fish. It seems like there is clearly going to be an agreement reached. The question being whether we will see a text at some point today. You have to feel for those businesses who still dont know on what terms they are meant to be trading with the eu on the 1st of january. People will be poring over this, through Christmas Day to try and understand what it means. There isa and understand what it means. There is a big question for the uk and eu in terms of how they support businesses through that. There isnt much time at all to get a sense of what it means for trade stop a lot of businesses might end up acting illegally by accident, not on purpose, but because they dont understand what the new rules look like. There are going to be quite Big Questions for the eu and the uk in terms of how they try to please that and encourage businesses to understand what the detail means, without sort of coming down with a firm fist, lots of businesses are calling for a soft landing and that
is something we will be looking out for. I think that is going to be an interesting question, to look at, when we see a deal, whether there are any phasing in arrangements. In some key areas there might be agreement to phase in the new rules, to try to give businesses a bit more time. Can i ask you as well, in terms of how the brexit approaches of everyone involved has changed because of the pandemic . In the uk, it was very divisive politically. Friends and families argued about it. We thought it would bring huge change. We are used to seeing massive changes in life, at home, at work. Has that changed the way people think, this is possible, weve got to get it done, we are going to see it out, and we can cope with it. Thats an interesting question. As you say, this year has brought lots of change but it has meant brought lots of change but it has mea nt lots brought lots of change but it has m ea nt lots of brought lots of change but it has meant lots of people have sort of
stop thinking about brexit. The uk they leave the eu back injanuary. For a lot of people there was a sense that brexit was done. Quite a few people might be quite surprised to find out that the changes that come with brexit have not kicked in yet. That, actually, things will look very different on the 1st of january. There is a bit of a challenge in the sense that people have not been engaging with the fact that change is coming. We have seen businesses preparing, where covid has absorbed all of the energy and there has been no headspace to think about what brexit means. What is also interesting is that some of the immediate impacts or brexit might not be felt by some people for quite a while. Because we are not travelling the moment. People are not even travelling within the uk for christmas. So people are not going abroad. And for people who cannot go even if they wanted to, so it will be interesting for people, next year, as things start opening up, people might then have to
confront some of the changes from brexit, they will not be coming back from skiing holidays on the first week in january, so from skiing holidays on the first week injanuary, so that experience of travelling to the eu that will not be felt by quite a few people for quite some time. That is interesting. But there are questions about how trade will evolve and how things will change globally, as you mentioned, lots of change has already come because of covid. Leaving the eu is back up within that comedy transition period, sorry, is wrapped up within that so it is difficult to predict quite how businesses and people will respond to the coming changes. Interesting to the coming changes. Interesting to see how brexit and covid will link and how people will disentangle both. Thank you very much, for now, maddy thimontjack. Donald trump has issued another round of highly controversial pardons as his term
in office draws to a close. Mr trumps former campaign manager, paul manafort, and his long time adviser, roger stone, are among the latest 26 people to benefit. Both were jailed as a result of the mueller inquiry into russian interference in the 2016 election. Mr trumps former campaign manager, paul manafort, 0ur north america correspondent david willis reports. Paul manafort is a seasoned Republican PartyCampaign Consultant and Donald Trumps former campaign manager. Indicted by the special counsel robert mueller, he was sentenced to seven and a half years in prison after being convicted of multiple crimes. Also convicted as a result of the Mueller Investigation into russian interference in the 2016 election was roger stone, a long time political ally of mr trump. Having refused to cooperate with the mueller inquiry, both men now find themselves rewarded for their loyalty and basking in the glow of a president ial pardon. Pardoned with them was Charles Kushner, the father of mr trumps senior adviser, jared kushner. A real estate developer, Charles Kushner was convicted of multiple crimes in 2004, including setting his brother in law up with a prostitute and then trying to blackmail him. News of the pardons came after the president had left the white house to spend the holidays at his florida retreat, mar a lago, and after hed thrown the future of three important pieces of legislation into doubt. Chief among them, a 900 billion Coronavirus Relief bill, which, in a video address on twitter, the president branded a disgrace. He is not participating in any of the congressional efforts to govern. But he comes in at the last minute and issues pardons, then heads down to mar a lago for his christmas vacation. It is very disruptive. In the meantime he is not participating with the Biden Administration to achieve a smooth transition. This is
something unprecedented in our