This is bbc news election countdown. Just seven days to go in a campaign that will make history. Theres donald trump, joe biden, a Global Pandemic and a country deeply divided on who should be the next president. But one week out, who steals the show . Its the man who used to have thejob. Even fox news ran his drive in rally in full. Covid, covid, covid, hes complaining. Hesjealous covid, covid, covid, hes complaining. Hes jealous of covids Media Coverage we take a deep dive into the latest polls with cbss polling guru which states to watch and whos got the edge. Also in the programme. New Research Suggests levels of covid 19 antibodies in people whove had the virus diminish rapidly increasing the risk of catching it multiple times. Plus, the unexpected surprise for a 90 year old woman who has spent much of the pandemic watching people work out, in an adjacent building. Hello im katty kay in washington. Christian fraser is in london. And americans are one week away from election day. An election that feels very different for a host of reasons. Donald trump is one of the countrys most unusual president s ever. The pandemic has made it one of the strangest campaigns ever. And more americans have voted early than ever before. Almost half of the number of the votes that were registered in 2016 have already been cast. And as campaigning enters its final frenetic few days, National Polls still havejoe biden ahead. The democrats have been swinging of the big guns, obama has been campaigning in florida, hammering away and their key message about the covid pandemic. More than 225,000 people in this country are dead. More than 100,000 Small Businesses have closed. Half a millionjobs are gone in florida alone. Think about that. And whats his closing arguments . That people are too focused on covid. He said this at one of his rallies. Covid, covid, covid class. This at one of his rallies. Covid, covid, covid class. He isjealous of covids Media Coverage. Former president obama who kind of looked like he was enjoying himself, christian, this report from our north american editor, john sobel. Anti Police Brutality demonstrators to keep everyone safe. One week to go, and joe biden has georgia of all places on his mind. No democrat has won here in decades, but polls suggest this once rock solid republican state is there for the taking. Though famous Southern Hospitality was markedly absent from the Trump Supporters who lined the roads leading to where the democrat candidate was speaking. So where are we with the race between donald trump and joe biden . The key to this election is what happens in the swing states. Joe biden has a steady lead in wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania, the three Northern Industrial states that propelled donald trump to victory in 2016, but hes also level or ahead in iowa, georgia, North Carolina and arizona. And it is the same picture in florida and texas. And werejoe biden to win one of the last two states, its hard to see how donald trump can win. The remarkable phenomenon about this election is early voting. In 2016,135 million americans cast a ballot in the president ial election. With a week to go, so far more than 60 million americans have already voted, and that means if turnout remains the same, well, nearly half of americans have already voted. What is also astonishing is the number of young people who voted early. In 2016, in michigan, 7000 people aged between 18 and 29 went to the polls before polling day. This time round it is over 140,000 so far. In other words, a 20 fold increase. And its a similar story in florida and North Carolina. And in georgia, that number is 31,000 in 2016. Its already 170,000 this year. These are numbers thought to favour the democrats massively, but donald trump says hes confident that next tuesday there will be a red wave of his supporters coming to vote that will propel him to victory. He is doing multiple rallies a day. Today he is en route to michigan, wisconsin and nebraska. And there is a sophisticated data Mining Operation that takes place at these events, ensuring that everyone who attends is also registered to vote. This was his successful 2016 playbook. Lets go to georgia. Im just meant to show you pictures of atlanta where joe to show you pictures of atlanta wherejoe biden to show you pictures of atlanta where joe biden is to show you pictures of atlanta wherejoe biden is due to speak in the next few minutes. You can see the next few minutes. You can see the word kamala plastered on the stage. It reminds us that the African American vote on the turnout in georgia is crucial next weekend of course Kamala Harris is their secret weapon. Yes, she is certain the part of the weapon, and as he played earlier, barack obama as well speaking in florida. And you talk about the early voting in georgia and the
turnout, so far, two thirds of the total who voted in 2016 have now voted in georgia. That shows the level of interest there is in this election campaign. Im just going to do the figures of texas as well. Texas committee 2 of the total who voted in 2016 have already voted and we have still got a week to go. So the turnout looks like its either going to be way higher or donald trump has got a very big problem on his hands. We will be focusing on orlando in florida today, and just looking at the report from bloomberg tonight, john, that the Trump Campaign has pulled its ads been from florida in this final week, they moved five and half million of that spend to those midwest states. What does that tell us . Ive seen that this is really helpless and hopeless on my part, ive seen that the trump statement has said that this is in accurate, but in my feed just before i came to the life position here, there are about 40 e mails, and i didnt read with the
trump rebuttal is of that statement, but if the Trump Campaign are pulling Advertising Money out of florida, theyve either got a serious financial crisis or they think florida is absolutely fine because they cant think its lost. If they think its lost, it is hard to see any path to the white house or donald trump that does not go through the Sunshine State that white john, you and i remember back in 2016, there were mutterings in the last week of Hillary Clintons campaign about texas and about georgia and whether the democrats should spend money there. Then, of course, we all woke up the day after and thoughts, cranky, you know, where they bonkers, were we bonkers to think that was in play and she shouldve been focusing further up north . Is there anyone in the Democratic Campaign that you are speaking to as to who is nervous that they may be guilty of taking some of their key states for granted and spending time instead come as joe biden is today come in states that are nice add ons but not
essential. I think the key figures in the Trump Campaign still have, you know, the aftermath of the postwar stress syndrome of what happened in 2016. They are not going to make the mistake of ignoring michigan and wisconsin in the way that Hillary Clinton did then. I think they are looking at the polls in georgia. Her memory these polls had been adjusted from the way that they were counted four years ago so that they think they are getting this shy trump voters this time around. Ithink this shy trump voters this time around. I think its in play. Joe biden would not be here unless he thought it was. But, look, you know, we got from the election, are the democrats confident, yes. Do they remember what happened four years ago a week before the election . And then what happened a week later . Even so, yes. 0k, even so, yes. Ok,john even so, yes. Ok, john sobel there in georgia. As do we all, john. As we enter this final week, lets give you a quick look at the latest polling. The bbcs poll of polls, which averages all the polling results, putsjoe biden ahead nationally by about ten points. But as our hugely informed viewers will already know and as Hillary Clinton discovered four years ago the popular vote counts for nought its not how many you get across the country its where you accumulate those votes. Donald trump lost by 3 million votes but he won the Electoral College by piling up those votes in the states that count. And it will be the contest in those key battleground states that decide it. Were joined from new york by anthony salvanto, cbs News Elections and surveys director. Anthony, thank you very much for joining us. You and i spoke a while ago and you explain to me something that i had not really figured out on polling, because im sure youre bored about being asked about 2016. At the polls measure intention, they dont mention behaviour. Is there anything that makes you think this time around that intention might more accurately be reflected in behaviour than it was back in 2016 . Thats a great question. I dont get tired of it because its important
to explain to people. The intention is manifesting itself to some degree in the early vote figures. That you were talking about just before you were talking about just before you started talking to me. And we see people who are turning out, we see people who are turning out, we see them turning out in record numbers already early. The difference however is that even though this is a substantial number, there is still half the electorate left to go, and in those folks both from our polling and from analysis of the files, we do see an advantage for President Trump. Republicans have told us throughout this campaign that they intend to turn out and vote on election day. So there is still some uncertainty revolving around whether people actually go to the polls. I think some of that uncertainty also revolves around whether or not people are willing to stand in line, whether or not they can find their polling places if polling places have moved because of the pandemic,
as many may. And all of that creates an uncertainty, both for the republicans and the democrats Going Forward as we had to november three. Anthony, we are all greatly warning the reviewers that they may not get a result on november the 3rd. It may ta ke a result on november the 3rd. It may take a little while longer than that, but im starting to hear that people warning that we could get a red wave on election day in northern swing states, but perhaps a blue wave on election day in southern and western swing states. What does that mean . No, i think western swing states. What does that mean . No, ithink that western swing states. What does that mean . No, i think that people wont be confused. If they Pay Attention to the voter models that we will be presenting on election night. And what that means is that even though some votes may come in sporadically from some parts of some states, we will be presenting to viewers a comprehensive picture, using exit polls from all over the state, using exit polls of people who voted early because we are already interviewing the exit polling. Folks are out there talking to the people who are
standing in those 2 3 hour lines will stop we will be combining all that to give you a company has a picture of the state. Now, things will shift here and there as votes come in, but i dont thank you will see a substantial difference between a wave of blue or a wave of red. I thank you will get it pretty co nfe re nce thank you will get it pretty conference of picture throughout, whether or not you will get a winner, i dont know, but you will get a clear picture of whats going on in the states. Anthony, does the states that they visited this final week of campaigning, doesnt tell us a little bit but what they or what they fear in these states . And are you picking up clues from what you are seeing . I think so. I think the campaigns are doing data and analysis probably much of the way we are, which as you are looking at very individual levels of turnouts, you are looking at voter files which are made public now. Everybody is looking at the same thing. Right now, they are drying the same conclusions that it may come down to places like florida, pennsylvania, and yes, the upper midwest that you mentioned, wisconsin, maybe michigan, maybe even arizona. Ijust
named a long list of states that it may come down to, so clearly come a there are a lot in play. What i do think the big question here is, its a central one, we are going to go into election night, we are going to have a sense of how far ahead joe biden is and we are going to have a numberof biden is and we are going to have a number of what the president needs to turn out to catch up, and it may be just back up located orjust that simple. What do you think is going on in the Trump Campaign . Because we look at the last two days can the three rallies yesterday in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin today, tonight, i mean, its exhaustive, his trip. He is going to nebraska, the Second District of nebraska, the Second District of nebraska, to omaha, where there is one Electoral College vote up for grabs. Well, one might make a difference in a close race. And thats one of two states that allocates its electoral votes coming out winner take all, but ina votes coming out winner take all, but in a congressional district, as you mentioned, also that media market gets you into iowa, which is also a toss up state in our analysis. So maybe killing two birds
with one stone there. But look, overall, its clearly trying to replicate the 2016 late come back, which if folks were paying attention to those polls, were moving towards him. The only differences, this year, the polls have been very stable, but having said that, it really does come back to this fact that the bulk of the outstanding vote would favour the president if they all turn out. 0k, they all turn out. Ok, anthony, thank you. Always a pleasure to talk to you. That one nebraska, what happens if its 269 269, christian . We are in for a long night. Thats what happens. Listen, i want to talk to you about president obama in florida today, the democrat super excited at him being out on the trail. At that point you are making tojohn, are they worried when they see the frenetic pace that donald trump is setting, that they are not out there doing the same . Look, you know, you you have got obama out
there and they are very excited about that and it has been some criticism of the biden campaign, not just from President Trump about whetherjoe biden is out enough, and its not just, you whetherjoe biden is out enough, and its notjust, you know, the principles, obama and biden and Kamala Harris whether they have been out campaigning enough, its actually more a granular door by door level. I was speaking to somebody down in florida today who was saying that the criticism of the biden campaign, if biden loses florida, will be that they decided, they were not going to do any in person campaigning like knocking on peoples doors, like Holding Small events with supporters, and of course, they made that decision because of covid, they wanted to draw the contrast with donald trump, and they genuinely wanted to be safe. But there is some frustration amounts that republicans have been knocking on peoples doors for a while now. They got back early into it in the summer, and there are some things like explaining ballads, getting people out to vote, that are better done by being with people in
person and not done over a zoom call. I think if biden loses at all oi call. I think if biden loses at all or loses florida, there will be some looking back and saying, that strategy of staying home, of being so strategy of staying home, of being so safe, of not getting out and knocking on peoples doors and during that campaigning, that was actually the wrong call on the biden campaign. Its the right strategy. Q campaign. Its the right strategy. 0 looks like he is having fun, doesnt he . It might have been the right strategy. If they win. If they win. Hey, obama did look like hes having fun, didnt de . Why not . Is in florida. Yeah, he is in florida. Stay with us on bbc news, still to come covid cases are surging across the us with record hospitalisations in a dozen states. Well check in with former white house physican drjennifer penya. A steward who worked at the
manchester arena on the night of the bombing has apologised to the mother of one of the victims after posting an offensive message on facebook. Kyle saw the bomber but fairto facebook. Kyle saw the bomber but fair to raise the alarm. Judith morris reports. Attacking the new idea named after merchant had to died at manchester arena, aimed at the mother, the author said he had enough of listening to a woman who clearly still has no idea of what actually happened, and is obviously still blaming others. Today, she sat at the back of the courtroom as the man responsible for the abuse said sorry to her. Ididnt ididnt mean i didnt mean to cause any upsetin upset in that post, been dealing with a difficult period, and for that id like to apologise. Like to apologise to anybody that it caused offence to. Kyle lawler was at manchester arena
on the night of the bomb. Then 18, he was working as a steward along with another teenager, mohammed agha. The two saw a man with a rucksack who they thought looked suspicious. It was the bomber, salman abedi, whod been in the lobby for an hour. Kyle lawler says he tried unsuccessfully to radio the control room, but cctv shows him apparently unconcerned as he walked away without approaching abedi. You said this i was scared of being wrong. You were concerned that if you approached him and he wasjust some innocent kid that people might think you were racist. Yes. A few minutes later, abedi detonated his bomb. Today, kyle lawler said he wished hed gone to speak to him and has suffered terrible guilt. Tonight, martyn hetts mother offered to meet him, saying she accepts his apology for the facebook post. Judith moritz, bbc news, manchester. Right now the United States is breaking all daily infection records. And still out on the campaign the president is insisting the country is emerging from the pandemic. Earlier today he tweeted. Im not exactly sure what the 99. 9 refers to. Here he was last night up a swearing in ceremony for newly appointed Supreme CourtJustice Amy Coney barrett. No mask. And if you have a slight sense of deja vu heres why. This is mr trump announcing the nomination of Justice Barrett a month ago. Around 30 people contracted the virus following that white house event including the president and the first lady. The rolling seven day average of coronavirus cases is at 66,500. New cases are rising in 37 states. 12 have record numbers of hospitalisations. Werejoined by drjennifer pena, former white house doctor assigned to Vice President pence who now works for a medical consulting firm. I should ask you first of all, doctor, what you make of the Vice President being out on the campaign trail, again today, even the five members of his close staff have contracted coronavirus. Yes, good evening and thank you for having me on it, its truly an honour. So, obviously, the Vice President has been deemed an essential worker by the white house, and thats a very liberal interpretation of that term, obviously. Me being a physician at the hospital, taking care of patients, thats considered essential, but painting campaigning is not really an essential function if we think about it, not being a matter of survival other than political futures. We see
again this recent Development Last night for the new Supreme Court justice, again with ignoring social distancing mandates, ignoring the mask wearing and always, again, placing more people at risk and setting the wrong example for the american people. Doctor, when you see the figures of what is happening around the country, how concerned are you about the direction the us is headed in . Its extremely concerning. We are over 8 million cases, we are over 225 deaths. If we continue in this trajectory, we are in fora very continue in this trajectory, we are in for a very grim winter. The president says we are rounding the corner. I dont want to see whats on the other side of the corner if this is the direction were headed in. You know, countries have been severely hit as the United States. We only have a bit of population, but more than a quarter of the confirmed and deaths. But if we
continue to ignore the science come if we continue to ignore Public Health experts and what know to be true in terms of prevention, we are just going to continue to see more spikes, the president has now taken doctor atlas to be a source of truth as opposed to doctor ouchi who is a pre eminent public expert and so public in on things like the committee which we now know from the Imperial College of london in the study theyjust Imperial College of london in the study they just published Imperial College of london in the study theyjust published today Imperial College of london in the study they just published today that immunity might be waxing and waning pretty quickly here after infection. So thats concept of reaching herd immunity at this point is just so thats concept of reaching herd immunity at this point isjust not feasible. So we have to focus on prevention, eventual vaccination when it becomes available. 12 states have got record numbers of hospitalizations now. It sounds incredibly Mortgage Backed mortgage to suggest this, we have kept the mortality rate pretty low for the last few months. Are you concerned that that mortality rate could pick up that that mortality rate could pick
up again . Absolutely. Especially because its notjust absolutely. Especially because its not just covid now, absolutely. Especially because its notjust covid now, we are absolutely. Especially because its not just covid now, we are also entering influenza season. So my fear is that we are going to have dual infections, not only from covid but also from the influenza, and that will raise morbidity and mortality. To this day, we are still lacking sufficient testing capabilities in this country, even though the president touts that we test more than anybody else, we are still lacking the ability to test all sick people. And still lacking an appropriate protective equipment in our hospitals. I still have to wear the same mask for an entire shift, and that should not be happening at this particular point. Solam happening at this particular point. So i am concerned that as we near the winter, we are going to see those numbers escalate significantly. 0k, doctor, thank you very much forjoining us. Thank you. Those numbers are alarming around the country, arent they . One very brave woman
90 year Old Washington dc resident Tessa Sollom Williams has spent much of the pandemic at her 8th floor window, watching workouts that take place on a rooftop opposite her building, its a source of motivation and entertainment during these tricky times. But of course; the Fitness Instructors at the gym several floors below her had no idea. Until ms Sollom Williams daughter sent an email, letting them knowjust how much her mum appreciated the workouts. Staff at the gym were touched so touched, they decided to honor their watchful neighbour with an outdoor mural featuring this message keep moving. Seeing the finished mural for the first time. Ms Sollom Williams was elated she told the Washington Post i hope it reminds people that they have to smile and stay determined, and reminded people to keep moving, no matter what. Thats the right message for all of us. Thats the right message for all of us. A former ballerina. You will make a love that yeah, so she knows
how to move. Good for her, good for her. Cheerfulness, a good quality in this particular time. Christian has lots. Hello there. Here in the uk, its not unusual at this time of year to see x hurricanes play a role in our weather, certainly this time of year, but for the rest of the week, not one, but two well. This is hurricanes either pushing to the you us the next few days, the remnants of hurricane eplison was in this world of cloud. Producing 100 mile 100 world of cloud. Producing 100 mile 100 permit 100 mph winds come about or area of low pressure stays out towards the west of us, but its close enough around the southern flank of it to bring strong winds oui flank of it to bring strong winds our way. Some fairly unstable air with a mixture of sunshine and thundery showers on wednesday. Those blustery winds are blowing a long way across the atlantic, a huge sea fetch, so some big waves will be crashing onto Atlantic Coast of Great Britain and the west of ireland. Ten metre plus waves over
35 foot possible. So dangerous conditions out towards the west. We see temperature as high as well, the showers that come our way up will be quite potent with hail and thunder across some southern quite potent with hail and thunder across some southern and western areas. Few showers there further east to arkham a better chance of staying dryer for east to arkham a better chance of staying dryerfor longer east to arkham a better chance of staying dryer for longer and certainly more sunshine than tuesday, but a fresher day as those wings are a little bit stronger coming in from the west of south westerly direction. The winds will remain fairly brisk as we finish wednesday, still a few showers around particularly to the west of scotland into the first part of the night and then gathering cloud towards the southwest. On the southern edge of that main area of low pressure north atlantic, we see another when developing, rushing across on the jet stream, bringing south westerly winds, ever milder airourway as we south westerly winds, ever milder air our way as we go through thursday, mild air contends with more rain, the rain on thursday could be heavier than we saw on tuesday, working its way northwards and use traits. Not arriving in shetland during of daylight hours, including two southern areas to something brighter, with showers later. Temperatures higher though on wednesday 11 15
later. Temperatures higher though on wednesday 11 15 send that degrees. That milder run of air continues through the night and into friday morning, a mild night in fact for most depressing us in gwinnett wales, but with so much moisture across northwest england, western parts of wales, there could be some minor flooding parts of wales, there could be some minorflooding as we parts of wales, there could be some minor flooding as we and the week out. Break conditions to end, then sunshine in the south and east, 1819 sunshine in the south and east, 18 19 degrees possible. A lingering weather from two central areas into saturday and that links into the next area of low pressure developing our vigorous jet next area of low pressure developing our vigorousjet stream. Next area of low pressure developing our vigorous jet stream. This will bring another batch of very heavy rain into the west, pushing its way eastwards through the day after a bright start. Southerly winds still, so those winds will touch gail forrest, even severe gail forrest across parts of western scotland, that because travel disruption, maybe a little bit of minor damage. And into saturday night and sunday, this next area of low pressure, this may actually contain part of the re m na nts of may actually contain part of the remnants of hurricane zita stops the second excerpt into affect us, which will bring again another batch of heavy rain. We have to watch the rainfall totals this week. It does
look like the rain will push through quite smartly, the strong gust of the winds tending to be earlier in the winds tending to be earlier in the day, but the worst of those winds and western scotland before things turn fresher and brighter as we see sunday out. And then into next week, welcome of the jet stream is still with us, still playing a role commits to the south of us as we start the week, firing up yet another vigorous area of low pressure, another wet and windy speu low pressure, another wet and windy spell to begin with. Thats, again, could cause damage and disruption across the country, but as we go through the second half of the week, the jet stream buckles northwards into north atlantic and in doing so, forming this curve we develop a ridge of High Pressure to the southwest. So there are signs during the second half of the week, especially for the southern half of the country, things will turn a little bit drier, less windy and a little bit drier, less windy and a little bit drier, less windy and a little bit brighter too. Bye bye. Tonight at ten a disaster in the English Channel as four migrants from iran, including two children, drown while trying to cross from france. They died after their vessel got into difficulty in rough conditions near dunkirk 15 others are now in hospital. This year, the number of migrants reaching the uk in small boats quadrupled compared to last year, posing a major challenge for the authorities. Clearly the numbers have been extremely high this year, unacceptably high, and that has been driven by a number of factors, including covid. The search operation off the coast has been called up for the night and it is feared another infant is missing. Levels of covid 19 antibodies in people whove had the virus diminish quite rapidly,
new research has found