Dharmic. This is b.b.c. 5. Police arrested a 51 year old man after a 12 year old boy was killed when he was hit by a car outside a school in Essex foreseen ages and a woman were also hurt me adept in Park High in Loughton Jane Francis Kelly reports he has been detained on suspicion of murder 6 offenses of attempted murder one offense of causing death by dangerous driving 6 offenses of causing injury by driving and failing to stop at the scene of a collision and driving without insurance heavily pregnant woman has been seriously injured after a hit and run in Leicester she's believed to have been struck by a van while cycling last night Donald Trump has arrived in the u.k. He'll attend the NATO summit reception at Buckingham Palace and hold talks with Boris Johnson the Us president has been told by Jeremy Corbyn at the n.h.s. Would not be part of any future trade deal under a Labor government has our political reporter Tom Bolton Jeremy Corbin setting out what would be his red lines in any negotiation but it's also an opportunity for him to remind voters here he might have welcomed Donald Trump to the u.k. But to remind voters that he doesn't necessarily see eye to eye with the Us president a lawyer for 5 of Geoffrey abstains accuses has told the b.b.c. He plans to serve papers to force Prince Andrew to give evidence in the cases that you give York denies seeing any suspicious behavior during visits to the convicted sex offenders home shelter says child homelessness is at its highest rate since 2006 the charity claims at least 135000 will be living in temporary accommodation on Christmas day Greg Beals is from shelter I hope what we're seeing today is people really waking up to the scale of this housing emergency what we found is that over the last year every day $183.00 children are becoming homeless and that's one half. 8 minutes is claim festival taze and hot chocolate sold by some high street chains can say huge amounts of sugar more than 200 drinks were tested by action on sugar it's calling for extra taxes to be introduced Michelle Roberts is a health reporter the most sugary drink was from Starbucks a large or venti signature caramel hot chocolate made with milk and talked with whipped cream that contains 23 teaspoons all 94 grams of sugar and $758.00 calories some of the coffee chains involved said they offer low sugar options and the 2nd Test and said in part has ended in a digital rain stop play 15 minutes after lunch and they will play was possible New Zealand's take the series one nil now with the rest of the sports his rope Schofield Liverpool have been drawn at home to Everton in the 3rd round of the f.a. Cup in the 2nd round rather and 4 back from 3 nil down to 50 solid home movies with 15 minutes left to win 43 Charlie Austin scored a 90th minute winner at Preston to send West Brom top of the championship Lino Messi and U.S.A.'s World Cup winner Meghan Rypien Erhard won the Ballon d'Or awards in Paris and John Higgins has joined Mark Allen and Matthew Stevens in the last 16 of the u.k. Championships Nuka world number one judge Trump is. This is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live on digital b.b.c. Sound small speak out along the way there are 30000 southern England to the much of the rest of the u.k. Should be dry with spells the sunshine clears you in north west Scotland with interest and highs of around 9 degrees d.c. That morning on Am and f.m. Around the u.k. On digital and online I'm wrong were up all night the Southeast Asian Games open in the Philippines on Sunday and find the usually rambunctious president of the on usual position make an apology I'm really apologizing for the country the other nations should know while they are still here of the government isn't happy he said at the football stadium shares are on finished and workers are still rolling out the red carpet for players to walk on players complain about poor food and transport delays and the nature to Manila was struck by a 90 mile an hour Thai food which is forcing evacuations as well as widespread then spawned. Wild typhoon cameras come ashore with winds gusting as high as 150 miles an hour or 200000 residents had to be evacuated from the coast on Monday just before the storm really moved in our correspondent hard Johnson is with us from an evacuation center Hello aren't. Good morning from the Philippines Yes it's very wet and wild and see the trees swaying that's all over the surface lots of people inside it 600 people at the moment 3000 in this city but I guess that it's about 2 hours away from Manila and it's about an hour away. 2 of those Southeast Asian Games they use we've seen events canceled today in the polo that was for the safety of the athletes as well as the horses and also we've heard that there have been that council ations of the windsurfing and also the on the war talking about so the Southeast Asian Games have a lot of woes last week because of this build up to the games over the weekend they had a spectacular opening ceremony and lots of people here wanted to put behind those put those words behind a move on but now this storm is hitting and that's going to cause more problems particularly to the shed jewel of the events here. Is Wrong large hole to go or a sorry lead you don't know and I leeway but when you said underwater hockey I'm sure a lot of people saw what underwater hockey but I believe the Southeast Asian Games this is almost the only games that actually treats it as a real sport it's not right. I'll be I'll be almost been so into the politics of this country not being a sports journalist I don't read much about gave But what I do know is that this country is on the water at the moment of the loss of water and what's happening at the moment is the eye wall is moving over this area so the actual. In the next 2 hours more. Women For the moment we've seen intensify in the last few hours that we. All. Know I understand how or just before we go on something seems to have happened to your microphone there it just it just cut and it went to a more distant sort of Mike's side and I wonder if that helps maybe maybe bring you back to us and clearer quality. But of course quite rightly you recall me to the arts and save the situation and it sounds as if it's going to get worse before it gets better oh boy and as is our ally and I'm afraid to her Johnson says if we're going to have to do some thinking about this too to try to repair it so let's try once again. No I'm sorry hired her Johnson has left us for the time being would try to restore that line but let's let's carry on if you don't mind and talk about a stranding in the Australian outback an extraordinary story this of survival a 2nd person found alive after being stranded in the outback for 2 weeks a group of 3 travellers got into trouble when their vehicle became stuck in a river bed just south of Alice Springs in the 3rd person is unfortunately still missing we're joined by Saima collegial Hello Iraq how are you Extraordinary indeed given. The very hot weather conditions as well in this area can you tell us something of their story Well well 1st off just to kind of give you a context of how it is if you imagine this area. Be on a map I mean imagine the whole of Australia and if you put a dot to it north from the center that's how remote it is that's how kind of back they were the 3 people food trends who was found today Temora Riley who was found yesterday and Claire Hockridge who is still missing as you mentioned they were then went on a trip in the Australian outback So a little bit south of spring in that area. They were stranded when their car got stuck in a river beds the hugh river what Temora was saying yesterday when she was found and people and the press were speaking to her that they staged by the car for 3 days trying to free it there had she had her dog with her by the way her dog ray and it was just so hot and so extraordinary that they just couldn't they do used up all of their water supplies all of their food supplies and they just could not get the car out it was extremely difficult at that point 2 of them food trend and Tamra's partner Claire decided to go go for a walk and try to find help so the group said we're going to split up some we're going to try and walk towards the highway Tamar. Stayed close to the car because she didn't she wasn't sure that her dog Ray would survive a very long walk in these very hot conditions. And they were just missing as you say for nearly for nearly 2 weeks now surviving in extremely scorching conditions at that time of year extraordinarily though tomorrow's I'd by finding a water hole that she then used and it's now clear that food trend has also done the same thing he did was a long distance he was discovered by a farmer in a farming area and he had survived all this time. By digging up Walter and drinking waters. They have extraordinary survival skills and these are not just people setting off for a walk in the desert. Absolutely and you I mean you would think when you set off on you would be prepared and you know. The 3 of you judging from the list that they had drink you know they they were they were prepared for for a tough trip they were prepared for things to get and so they have prepared them selves with their food with their water but then you get stranded in an area and you're far far away from any kind of help things are going to get tough really really quickly at some point tomorrow saying that it just got so hot in the day that they had to dig up. Under the car almost dig up a hole and sit and sit there because they just could not survive sitting in the car in that heat during the day they could sleep in the car during the night but at one point they realize that you know despite their best efforts trying to get the car out food was running out water was running out it wasn't very hygienic and they needed to move and as they moved and split up that's when things got really difficult because each was on their own in a very very remote area but police said as well because this area is so diverse you know you've got send Junes you've got Hardrock you've got dense trees it was really difficult to look for them and obviously had to look for them by helicopters but as you say really good surviving skills because the one thing that you need in this in this territory is that you have to stay dehydrated I mean they're still quite quite hydrated but the managed to find enough well water for them to survive we still don't know what's happened to Claire Hockridge she still remains missing. Thank you very much. Well when we last heard from her John the typhoon was still intensifying in the Philippines let's return. To our correspondent at the evacuation center Hello again her hi Roth Yeah I spoke with you I was saying my clothes are such great else you are Quitman is also getting wet here why trucks All right so we can see lots of evacuees coming into the center now that soaked through all slowly shivering in the cold 2 guys next to me completely you know what the wind blows it is really creating the wind so who are as well so you can see lots of ice getting blankets and towels and moving into the vibration sense with it being given food but yeah lots of these here all the 600 people in this evacuation center 3000 across the city but I guess around 2 hours away from Manila. And is that come a well prepared them. Well this is a country gets rocked by Typhoon quakes all the time 20 typhoons this you know so far this is the 20th there being one loss of earthquakes in the south of the country as well so it does have a very stringent evacuation and a bunch of secrecy in place for these. We can see here. Filling in for his old so you can see on the left just I am not supposed to. Hold this says a number found these numbers need to vigils male female so it really breaks down through the patient to find out who's here and who might Tenchi be missing but at the moment this storm is a great 3 Grade 0 x. One great of 5 so it's not the worst storm but it's certainly packing a punch with the winds and the rain and we began by talking about the athlete as he says in games are they safe are they all right. Well and also the market the Clock City the New City complex and the athletes' village. I saw this week that's relatively robust building not complete but I should add we saw that some of the blocks had been completed in time for the games but I assume that they would be safe in those venues we've seen one that you quite close to here that they're equal complete say taking a battering this morning at the moment no reports of any athletes suffering any ill effects form this weather but definitely 3 events to be counsel so far polo the underwater hockey and also the windsurfing off its 2 big bay area the Philippines. I hope will leave you with thank you very much for. Thanks. Well the dogs are man's best friend the one in particular has been honored for his efforts helping has Orner 5 lives ruined bridge had been finding out about how a very good boy called Bentley who's a Labrador helped a 6 year old girl make an emergency call when her mom had a fall so this all happened about 2 weeks ago Mia Ellery was at home she slipped to the top of the stairs and fell down the block but she was couldn't move at all the only other person in the house was a 6 year old daughter on it but she had headphones on was in one of the other rooms completely oblivious to what was going on Bentley as you say is the family's black Labrador and so when she was unable to move me I shouted for Bentley to help. I said Bentley get the phone be understood what you want to hear so he got the phone and I needed all his attention so I said Tell her tell us tell us tell us. And then he just carried on barking until she took I have phones off and then she came running out and saw me on the floor how did you know what to do because she and I sat and remember what you got told to school. And I believe it is a page of breathing. Tell me exactly what. I'm going to actually some questions my name's hunt Ok now how far did she fall. From the top of this is Ok I'm How do I. Am day which is an emergency medical dispatch if I'm Northwest and I took the call off on a brain completely changes when you realize it's a child calling and you have to think what they actually can say and if they're actually going to answer each question correctly and if they actually understand what you're actually asking then she did absolutely brilliant it was very and she answered all my questions with I think patient she didn't really know what part of the body what part of the body. Now does me as I've never told the numbers to dial I've never told her what to do in an emergency which is quite stupid on my part beat in the house on my own but at school they would teach you know the week before what today was so look. I would simply. By Ok let me know when I'm still a bit stiff in the neck but I'm Ok. I can drive again. The vets dog in the world and no one believes that he did it but he did and he's a great dog. Now both on I'm Bentley have been given certificates today by the ambulance service for their conduct join the call Run Bridge telling a story of Bentley and his very happy owner well as shown said they soon who joins us from Taipei Hello Cindy can morning good morning what would you like to talk to us about. Well the 1st thing is a very interesting survey the latest one by the government which regularly conducts surveys on Taiwanese opinions about mainland China as you know you know China still claims Taiwan as a province and has not given up to force the use of force to get back one day so the latest survey shows some very interesting numbers it shows that for the 1st time there's a a 10 year high in terms of the percentage of people who favor independence so now it stands at 27 percent of the population favor Taiwan's formal independence from China so that you know some of my listeners might not know the 2 sides separated since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 now but if you look a little bit more carefully at the numbers only 6 percent of these people actually want independence right now 21 percent 21.7 percent to be exact actually are happy with eventual independence and if you look at it even more further at the numbers it shows that 31 percent want some kind of resolution but it did to have no timeline to say it depends on the political will of both sides and the situation of both sides and another 25.8 percent want to maintain the status quo for ever basically these people basically don't even care if Taiwan eventually achieves formal independence and then we still have some people who are favor unification 8.9 percent but they're happy with again to status quo for now so if you add all those people who are fine with maintaining the current situation is actually 87.4 percent so a vast majority of she just want to keep things the way it is they don't favor independence or unification. Because China is really pushing in a way that doesn't. Use Well actually to to be to be correct you know the international community has in some ways been misled I think by the current Taiwanese administration as a sign when it's her party and herself who has been sort of moving Taiwan towards. A path of independence so many people would say because China never actually set a timeline for unification and before the president's high and her party came into power from about 2008 to 2016 over 8 years it was basically maintaining to status quo and to both sides got along quite well actually it was unprecedented good relations between both sides neither side talked about unification or independence they were happy to just push push aside their differences and focus on what they could work on but after President I came into office she has actually many would say disrupted the status quo because she refuses to recognize. An agreement reached between the 2 sides in 1902 that there is only one China but each side can define what that China is so the the People's Republic of China can say it's the people People's Republic of China in mainland China and the Republic of China and Taiwan can say it's the Republic of China so basically they agreed to disagree but that status quo has been disrupted it will be very interesting to see what the voters choose in the elections less than a month about a month away on generally 11 what are they would give President another a 2nd term in office or whether they would choose the tended from the main opposition party k.m.c. Which had as I mentioned earlier enjoyed very good relations with China before Mr came into power. Any clues from the. Well the opinion polls show that she is leading by a very large margin ahead of her competitor the main competitor of position party can she and many people believe the reason why she's leaving is not because she's been doing a wonderful job it's because actually the economy has been lackluster not in not much improvement in terms of you know economic issues it's because she did she has benefited vastly from the Hong Kong protests and she has actually campaigned large the in the past few months on fear debt. Basically spreading fear that Taiwan could become the next call now her her opponent and the opposition party has argued against they say in Taiwan is in no way the same as Hong Kong it has been governing itself as a separate independent country for decades it is a Democrat democracy it enjoys free elections and many many freedoms people don't have and there's no threat of Taiwan becoming the next Hong Kong deaths in many ways undermining Taiwan's democracy and did literally Taiwan president's high and her party repeatedly on was in every campaign speech race Hong Kong. As an example of what you know voters here should should be careful about and as a reason for voting for her basically. What's going on with Facebook a bit of tension with Facebook Well yes well Facebook you know is quite aware of its reputation has been tarnished you know over the past year or so because people have used Facebook to manipulate public opinion ahead of the elections during elections and we're seeing that you know in other countries and so it is a launch a campaign mid-month in mid November say weeks ago to to actually Taiwanese Facebook pages of misinformation disinformation fake fake ads basically political ads put out by people who don't identify themselves correctly and also just basically what they call it that operations you know campaigns to try to spread misinformation to to mislead voters to spread rumors. And they're saying going to do this with some $35000.00 staff who are in charge of. Security and and content and they claim that the staff you know speak many different languages speak many languages and they're able to understand the nuances in Taiwanese politics and they're going to weed out guarantee anything that they disapprove of Facebook postings but that sounds like a quite a ambitious undertaking because there are 19000000 Facebook users in Taiwan out of a population of 23 and a half 1000000 so that's practically everyone. And you know it's not clear how Facebook is going to do this. Taiwanese connection to. Who is claiming asylum in Australia and the Chinese. Yes And this is again election related I mean basically I'm sorry elections dominating everything in Taiwan right now but this this man he claims he's a Chinese spy and he claims that he was hired to run these operations not only in Taiwan but in Hong Kong and Australia basically to influence public opinion and what he said he did was employ you know an army of sort of cyber disruptors you know people who are like college students studying here a Chinese college student studying here who would basically spread information on social media that would be damaging to the president's high to try to reduce her chances of getting reelected and he says you know. The Chinese operation that he was part of actually even infiltrated the media and as well as tempos and grassroots organizations by paying the money so basically getting them to agree. With the media to run articles that are favorable towards sighing one's opponent president's opponent it's not exactly clear how he influenced tempos but you would think that what he's trying to get out is that you would pay temples and temples would somehow influence to. Worshippers to follow to political stance so anyway so he says all of this very publicly on Australian media is a tell all kind of interview with 60 Minutes in Australia and other media. So that's how many. Ruling Party and President have made a big deal about this. Basically saying See I Told You So you know there are Chinese spies in China is out to to manipulate our elections our democracy but just the no evidence and the Australian Government hasn't actually confirmed that they think disguise a spy he's seeking political asylum but they haven't granted him political asylum and there are a lot of naysay. Including from the opposition party here who are saying that this is all cooked up to try to help presidents high when. They believe that this man basically his case is not considered credible by the Australian Government so he's turning to the media to get it his camping out there but not to Tony's government at the same time has acted. In recent days to a rest not a rest but to. Keep a man that despite claims as his boss who hired him from leaving Taiwan now this man and his wife have been coming to Taiwan regularly buying luxury property and he's based in Hong Kong but on his last visit last week when he was about to leave Taiwan how many Saudis picked him up for questioning and even though they haven't charged him with anything they haven't detained him but they have issued a restriction against him leaving Taiwan so the plot thickens but yet we have no evidence really so it's something that has been society that waiting to see where the evidence is. So they thank you very much no problem. It's just going up to past 4. On digital b.b.c. Sounds last week on the move this is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live there was a news is out of Hodge's police investigating a crash which left a 12 year old boy dead have arrested a 51 year old man on suspicion of murder he was hit by a car outside a school in Laos in Essex for teenagers and a woman were also her president trumps landed in London for the NATO summit who also attend a reception at Buckingham Palace and hold talks with Boris Johnson a lawyer for women who accuse Geoffrey Epstein of abusing them has told the b.b.c. They want Prince Andrew to give evidence in their cases papers are expected to be filed in the us in an attempt to force him to be interviewed as a witness the prince has denied seeing anything suspicious there are calls for coffeeshops to reduce the amount of sugar in some festive drinks tests show a camel hot chocolate in Starbucks contains 23 teaspoons of sugar that many says it's committed to reducing sugar in drinks and the 2nd Test and sudden Park has ended in a droll rain stop play 15 minutes after lunch and no more play it was possible he's even take a series one no now with the rest of the sports his rope Schofield Liverpool have been drawn at home to Everton in the 3rd round of the f.a. Cup in the 2nd round rather and 4 back from 3 nil down to 50 solid home ors with 15 minutes left to win 43 Charlie Austin scored a 90th minute winner at Preston to send West Brom top of the championship Lino Messi and U.S.A.'s World Cup winner Meghan Rypien are have won the Ballon d'Or awards in Paris and John Higgins has joined Mark Allen and Matthew Stevens in the last 16 of the u.k. Championships Nuka world number one judge Trump is out this is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live on digital b.b.c. Sound smart speaker come on Good Morning it was a pretty chilly start to the week for most of us all in Monday but the exception was the father Wolf and. The U.K.'s highest temperature yesterday was in Highland Scott the week of about 10 degrees but with. Some rain across these northern there is starting today with a fair amount of crowd as well Southwest the wind up the Atlantic that means it's not particularly cold but at the other end of the country crossing them and take me down towards the south and the east. Overhead chilly and in places frosty start with a little bit of. Potentially some fog patches to deal with as well particularly parts of East Anglia the southeast fringing up into the south these areas could potentially have some quite take us through this morning's rush hour much of that should. Across England and Wales with patchy and sunny spells that will stay predominantly drivers there with single digit temperatures for most of 8 degrees in Manchester reason Cardiff in London perhaps up to 11 in Plymouth and then further north across. Scotland well here a lot of cloud around through. Some breaks appearing in that especially across eastern counties and the eastern side of Scotland temperatures here 7 degrees or Belfast Glasgow Aberdeen but in Stornoway and in low it's still pretty mild across the north and western extremities as we go through this evening and tonight so we'll keep a fair amount of cloud around some clear. Could see some folk patches especially across southern and eastern parts of England maybe a touch of process as well for tomorrow England Wales predominantly dry with some sunny spells before a little bit of rain but in Scotland rich with a nice full seat was one of the biggest upsets in the history of heavyweight boxing and I want. To show you I mean what. You had on Saturday night and Joshua has his chance to regain his title is against and. It's not just about me this is my legacy here Olivia. So the fight in the fight like boxing with balanced podcast on b.b.c. Sound City Joshua be doing Saturday night from 9 on b.b.c. Radio 5 Live. Finally East has its own digital b.b.c. Set this is a small stream come along this is b.b.c. Radio 5. This morning's election cost has a very special guest Professor So John Curtis explains to the rest of us what the polls are really say election cast election cast from the b.b.c. We are in this election because it was me thinking about if you continue to be king I'm fine I'm just mispresent if anyone comes up to you and says they know what's going to happen. Smile politely and turn your back. Hello is Adam Fleming election cast h.q. In Westminster and I'm joined by the jump you know I'm the deputy political editor and Vicky young I am the chief political correspondent of the b.b.c. Thank you for joining us both today I think 1st time action casts you flattered to be invited I'm not going to leave it was I don't know madam. We've had you in the diary for a long time and it's working your way through military commissions no no no. That's not true that's not true and it is true. Anyway right serious voices because obviously we've got to talk about the continuing fallout of the attack on London Bridge on Friday afternoon we now know the name of the 2 people that died is Jack Merritt and Saskia Jones. And obviously politics over the last few days has been dominated by what happened. Yesterday on the under Mark program there was a very bad tempered interview with Boris Johnson let's listen to this bit of it he was out because he was on automatic early release when the judges reviewed his sentence. In 2012 they had no option but to comply with the law that labor brought in in 2008 which meant affected you say labor you've been in power for effectively that he was out he was out that they had to comply with the law as it stood and he was out in 8 years and this was a guy don't forget the judge he said was a very serious jihad and that's why that's why when I been in office for 120 days. That's. So that was talking about why it was man was on the streets at all a lot and presently I listen to an interview I was none the wiser about what happened when or why John just talk us through what we take away from it well if we take that pretty short clip it was rich in political culture we had a bridge Johnson 1st movie Rumanian on the fact that the terrorist London this London Bridge terrorists will be released halfway through the sentence therefore was able to commit this this crime that was clearly the strongest piece of piece of of point making very high because by definition if one can had been in jail and had not been released he could not have killed these killed these people but it opened up a a much much wider debate about the treatment of the terrorist about rehabilitation of this about the fact the Bush don't was pointing the finger at the treatment of this man under past legislation and saying look I have been there for 120 days whatever it was and in that way clear of responsibility for anything that's happened before despite the fact that as I remark points you know we've had a Tory government for very nearly a decade so look it's become intensely political I think that was absolutely inevitable you can argue it was a necessary part of the process because Boris Johnson has played it is his strongest card and open up an exposed front as well to do with his government his party's record in office is a really difficult judgment isn't it for political parties when this kind of thing happens and unfortunately this isn't the 1st time it's happened if you look at the last election the Manchester Arena Boehm happened during a general election I remember Joe Cox of course was murdered during the referendum campaign so unfortunately these kind of incidents have happened before on a political party has to make a judgment and I think the reason boys Johnson is going really out so hard on this is partly because what happened last time is it reason they ended up in this round really with the Labor Party about police numbers actually people thought she came off worse during all of that so how hard do you go out to defend your position and Doris Jones. And is making the point that actually in the Conservative manifesto and we have looked this up it is in there that they want to end the automatic halfway release from prison for serious crimes so his point is I've always been against this particular policy it turns out is much more complicated than that and actually when you start going through with our legal experts our legal team in the b.b.c. Is incredibly complicated sentencing law which is changed over the years and actually you know both sides have things that they can point to and things that I think go on the attack over well I mean the thing that Gerry Corbin pointed to he was doing a speech in New York yesterday about foreign policy but of course he talked about this and he used as an opportunity to attack austerity. Cuts to public services could have had an effect on this incident take a regression service part privatized in 2014 resulting in disaster a disaster that was predicted by the select committee aps the time the most serious cases stayed it was just a system badly undermined by a sorority cuts a failure to recruit has left huge staffing shortfalls with staff supervising more cases than ever expected posing again a serious risk to our security you can't keep people safe on the cheap. This was one of the interesting things about this as a policy area is that it's not like the n.h.s. Where most people have had an experience with the n.h.s. The last few years or a relative and so you can have a sort of personal feeling about how things are going actually most people won't be on probation or know someone who's on probation with no someone who's at risk of radicalisation don't know the provision provisions which is not a huge emotional touched for the British public and when National Health Service is it's obviously Labour's strongest card for that reason when they talk about running down the n.h.s. In terms of resources a lot of people are naturally Absolutely you're right on that know many people feel the same way about the probation service but it's also right and fair to say. That the privatisation of the provisions of this and the the shortage of forms of the provisions there's been alive very publicly debated issue in its own sphere for a good long time I was into the then minister in charge of this grading got stuck into all of this it dented pretty great and you know one of the don'ts of the probation service and when Jeremy Coburn attacks in the way that he has look it's not opportunism this is deepest most heartfelt point about austerity about the running down of British public services and that's where he goes as a kind of default position most when you see a problem on the list and you don't get too many of these when you see a shortcoming of a public service come into the into the spotlight so of course he's planning on all of that and just as the whole argument and London Bridge has gone on for the predictable predetermined lines when it comes to labor and the Liberal Democrats it was Forces who burst on the Tories it's about tougher penalties they each have their point they are each reaching out to an electorate I suppose which is move likely to see the point of you know voice and I think if people are talking about this at home I think they will be of course people's initial reaction is the horror of what's happened the sympathy for the families or friends of those who've died but actually a lot of people watching the t.v. Every Friday and over the weekend will be saying how come somebody was let out who was a convicted terrorist how did this happen who was watching him why weren't they watching him how do you manage to convince the parole board that he was eligible for early release because they didn't have to necessarily go along with that so I think if people at home are talking about it politicians do have to respond and of course actually for those people it is distasteful but I think it is somewhat inevitable when you rise. Up with a model whole about the sentencing system that I knew before I asked well you know I want Shouldn't we be debating why shouldn't politicians and an election be debating these things are going full to our disaster look it took longer for the political argument to engage in the case of going full power than it did in this case this in this case it took almost a matter of minutes on a Friday evening before birth Johnson switch from being a name or sort of statesman like and taking a detached new view to making appointments into the. And all the rest of it in Grenfell's case more people died there was only be a need a requirement for more sensitivity and a little more space between the politics and the incident itself it got pretty pretty political if you recall what got very political Well let's just have a quick listen to the Justice Secretary Robert Buckland who was on the Today programme this morning and he basically did what you just said there John so he was Have a listen and you're see him changing gears very quickly I do think we just need to pause our and get the tone of this debate right but public protection has to be at the heart of the t.t. Of any government and I have to put that 1st and foremost when considering 1st of all existing offenders and secondly the future sentencing regime for terrorism I make no apology for that we've got to get it right. So you do exactly just. Pay your respects so let's not politicize a grown up man but you're I mean he's a lot more experience of the system obviously than we all have I mean he has been. Overseas now just as Secretary one the interesting things that someone has talked about is actually the turnover the number of sectors of state justice secretaries that there have been it's one of those ministries actually where people have been in and out very very quickly and there's a lot of criticism about the way the policy has been introduced and of course what complicates all this in a way when it comes to certain sensitivity is because those 2 young people who were murdered with there for a reason because they believe in rehabilitation that is the whole point of that meeting why they were there while there were criminals there why they were explicit they're all sitting around discussing it because of their particular view and I think that does make it slightly more complicated especially when you have Jack Maritz father saying do not use this to put forward your own views when this is what he very clearly believed and I think that does make it even more sensitive than it would have been and if you have to say this is a guy who should not have been on the streets when you go into rehabilitation versus punishment and deterrence and all of that sort of thing it becomes very very very tricky. To be tried in the past have tended to fail but it does come back I think of resources that is there why the lots of people are making about this I think that one prison is in there where they they work on all of this they put in serious offenders are absolutely put through their paces and they're reconviction rate is far far lower than you know but it's one of prison one prison where this is happening and this was a case where a woman can go in the system movie understood he was writing letters saying I'm good with this let me out and I will be a model citizen for 3 years he presented that face to the authorities. That he committed these these men and the question of you who was monitoring him actually comes to resources and the government's response to that is actually comes to security services if that is their role in this case they have had extra funding maybe unlike other areas of the criminal justice system. But that is that the counter-argument from the government actually lots of these people because of the 74 people who have been released automatically the know being reviewed by the Ministry of Justice but I think what the review is actually about is the conditions of the license that they're issued on because they're not just released without with the 3 of them said blank checks not blank check but when they do get monitored and those conditions they have to adhere to and so then there's questions about what the conditions are applied to you then this condition the question about how those things I want to serve them whether the people doing the monitoring have the resources I think I wrote about them as being so careful that wasn't he saying he's gone back he's gone back to obviously his department he's really asking them very carefully about these other 74 he wants to know for sure what is going on because again we're learning a lot more about things that we didn't know about I didn't know about this other one of the only Boris Johnson the new broom comes on 0 Yeah this is your big thesis scarcely a big thesis and you say I'm nothing to do with the last Tory government nor the more I only been you know this was not a secret message to me if I didn't say to the country and you know it was he was a new force he was going to sort things out on Sunday one of the big headlines said Boris Johnson fury over the 74 Ok she's going to be in the furious with the previous prime minister the previous conservative justice secretary or Home Secretary and then he will say look I'm getting hold of this I'm a new broom on Sirius not going to schools you know well Ok fine so then you can take on this is maybe you can take on another Tory just the 2nd Haven't we been pretty much no maybe she's furious you can go into a room and have a punch up I just want to war extent can you turn your back on your own party when they've been in government support of it tricky one can try and they can blame and they could also say they weren't in the majority they were in you know they were in coalition with the Liberal Democrats for 5 years you can come up with a blow that long but then you see a lot of against them even against removing benefit can't you do favor she hasn't repugnant and as a government minister time and. And when we can we should probably turn on the list but then you think that you're sincere when you see that everything up well every debate he goes to she has harangued by people who blame her for every single thing that I listen government I do the ages ago when she was a junior minister and she disagreed lots of it but the voters I've spoken to some of them they really I was quite interested how many raise that not just tuition fees but talked about how they would never vote for her because she was in a coalition and her voting record 2 people said to me her voting record I could never you know vote for her now they were backing Labor obviously but that is why they say they're doing it so some people can escape their colleagues past and other people are just stuck with it forever yeah by the looks of things scientifically I judge that short conversation we haven't had time to talk about some of the other policy things today labor cutting rail fares are not you know really. 3rd off yet the Dems are talking about mental health Purcel the Home Secretary's talking about the new tougher borders policy which is actually just as tough as it probably was always going to be after Bragg's still pretty much done in charge exactly he's personally manning every border. In the country just remember when you go to Europe in years to come you have to sign up for your act yes you have to go in the m.t.s. Website to get permission to go to you can approach will do the same to us to you know we'll do the same to them so how does that involve already well you know when you go to you know when you go to America as you're asked or you have to go that website you type in your passport details in your address pay like 12 quid then press the button that says your permission to come to America they're going to do that for the e.u. We're going to do that for you citizens coming here so it's not a Visa it's just permission to travel there's someone who's not there to pay for you yeah I think the e.u. Is going to be 7 euros but it will last for 5 years. He's. Someone who I assume doesn't need or asked Donald Trump when you get the rewards to write a robbery night and yeah I mean walk and seen the queens in fact have you checked we checked and he said we think you know that's a really good point the last time he he said something just as he left that it can yeah on the plough that also I think you can take it from the plane and tweets from the plane and say well you know it's an important nothing seems to say nothing seems to stop it was a plan for for Donald Trump always here to be seen with Boris Johnson as little as possible that doesn't seem to be an awful lot in the diary but he gets a bit special treatment because of the balance. But he's a major leader and there's going to be. Together we know that Boris Johnson to see to be very keen to be very publicly one on one with Donald Trump really great lengths to try and there's going to be a u.s. Press conference when you don't journalists are going to get something interesting . He's very happy to just turning the ball so you think even if going from sets off at the beginning of the day sort of in 15 minutes later the on not going to say anything controversial it's still going and then she was there as soon as the cameras that are being took up of the g 7 g 8 summit and cameras about he just stops he chats the last year it was a press conference and they said at the beginning the White House person said he's going to take as many questions as the role we all piled in last all questions he went on for over an hour and people really went away oh yeah like Congress about this got together we got to go to play to. The president United States he was loving it he was loving it and I've loved having you. Know my dad doesn't mean get back to work. Like you cast the election cast from the b.b.c. a Few things have happened since we recorded that conversation with Vicki and j.p. One of them is that Boris Johnson has done a very quick t.v. Interview on a visit to Southampton where he says in his mind some people may never be capable of being. De radicalized and being steered away from the terrorist ideology and that really contrasts with a Guardian article written by David Maritz who's the father of Jack Merritt one of the people who were who was killed in the attack on Friday and he's written that what Jack would want from all of this is to walk through the door he has brought it down that door would open up a world where we do not lock up and threw away the key where we do not give indeterminate sentences he goes on Jack believed in the inherent goodness of humanity and felt a deep social responsibility to protect that now that contrasts quite starkly with what the prime minister saying is that some people could never be changed for the border you're listening to election just from the b.b.c. I spent most of this afternoon looking at all the opinion polls that have been published in the last few weeks and some have been published in the last few months and so now my head is like a giant bingo game and I need somebody who can just explain it all to me properly so let's speak now to the polling guru the man who always gets it right Professor John Curtis from the University of Strathclyde Hello there. Good day to you Adam so I'm completely bamboozled by all the numbers lots of sort of forty's thirty's low teens just explain to us what the the picture painted by the polls actually is well there are 2 things you need to know about what the polls have been doing during the course election campaign the one is that they've been showing a consistent conservative lead the 2nd is that both the Conservatives and the Labor Party have made progress during the course of this campaign but not at the expense of each other but rather at the expense of the party in the case of the conservatives and then over Democrats in the case of the Labor Party the net effect of all of this is that has indeed been a bit of a Narin of the Conservative lead in the course of the last couple of weeks or so. But the conservatives still enjoy on average you're at least the kind of Poli that ought to generate them an overall majority so to understand what's been going on there for Basically you need to understand a the way in which the election code campaign in the coding of the comments just seems to have screens the votes of the smaller parties but in a way that's very very clearly to do with the debate about Brecht said basically the conservatives this is now the party of leave votes is on the Labor Party having lost the mantle earlier this year has regained a lot of its position as the months will remain voters and that's basically the don't know is the campaign up around that of course run the fact that we do now have a something like a 10 point lead for all of the concerns over labor on average yes there is variation so in the last few days we've had one poll that said maybe the Conservative lead is only 6 points which takes us to our round the point we might begin to contemplate the possibility of a hung parliament but he create we've had another one that says it's 15 or we could be talking about a near landslide so the variation around the polls certainly does therefore mean the end of that we can't be entirely sure what's happening assuming the polls reason be right in the 1st place but the trend and the structure is frankly very very clear as to what's been going on during this campaign do you think people are getting a bit too excited about this narrow wing that's happening and maybe overestimating the 2 hoarseness of the 2 horse race Well yes and no I think they're exaggerating it in the sense that we are still in a position at least on the average of the polls where by you know the conservative should get so Ron 350 seats or so in boys Johnson should be able to deliver Bracks it is he is minded to do. And he could also there isn't much sign of the Labor Party being able to do damage to conserve that everybody are losing just as much of the vote is nearly temp. Ascent of his 27 vote is those in just as much use of its vote to the conserve his now as they were 4 weeks ago so they're not extent at least yes there is a did a risk of exaggeration and certainly underestimating the way in which the conservatives really have managed to maintain the lead that said we do have to bear in mind that given probably Boris Johnson needs a bit more than a 6 point lead before we say Yeah he's all clearly home and dry that if the lead is indeed around 10 points he's not so far ahead of where he needs to be to get a majority for us to be sure that he's gotten the bike in the game we just do have to remember that this is essentially a binary election in which either Boris Johnson gets a majority in which case Breck's it should happen or he fails to get a majority and then there's a high probability that we will get him I know it's elaborate ministration charge with the Tosk of applying for an extension and going for a 2nd my friend I'm sorry it's whether or not the concert was getting a majority you know that matters not whether they have more seats than labor so that's a different The other thing of course than we do that have to bear in mind is that the conservatives do now seem to have pretty much taken all the juice for the BRICs it all raised this idea around 6 or 7 percent of the Levite left in the hands of the party rising Cowen trust there is still potentially at least over 20 percent of remain votes in the hands of the Liberal Democrats and therefore given the Labor Party has so far demonstrated a non-trivial degree of success in squeezing out vote maybe they could squeeze a feather in otherwise these the potential for Labor to continue to make the progress it's been making in this campaign i.e. At the expense of Democrats the potential for doing more isn't worth Messick at least still their rights in the case of the conservatives they've pretty much I think reached. The high watermark of what they can achieve with their electoral strategy so far. The leave oranges been squeezes just piston pips and skin and I'm trying to think of an equally sized other fruit that could be the remain fruit that is still got some juice left but it's just another orange is there anything right under our nose that we might be missing. Well to be honest no I mean I think the other thing that we've learnt in the last few days by the way is that this election may in the end prove not to be quite so complicated people are saying we were being but being told endlessly will we're going to get big differences between one constituency in another and of course the independent conservatives might upset the apple cart and certainly you know it's very difficult from ordinary polls to work out what is the possible impact of geographical variation in party performance particularly given for example that the conservative vote is so much more of a Levite than it was 2 years ago I need critique that the Liberal Democrat vote is much much more of a euro fall that it was 2 years ago but now of Behold of course along came You Gov just a few days ago to cause some lights on this issue not 2 years ago you got gave this enormous surprise with what's called the multiple regression imposed out of a kosher model which is essentially a way of underlies ing a very very large amount of punting data to try to get estimates for individual decisions these are 2 years ago using the approach they told us you know what we think there might be a hung parliament when all the conventional putting on nearly all the conventional punning was saying the consent of his look as though they were home and dry well there was no surprise this time in the Gulf m.r.p. Model roll to actually their estimates of 359 seats and 11 point Conservative lead was pretty much dying on in both cases what you would expect given the state of the conventional polls by not punting was dumb but the crucial point therefore about that is that although indeed as we suspected this punning indicates that the conservative vote is likely to go up more in places which voted heavily to remain and therefore probably rather less amongst those places the votes would remain It looks as though the Nessie fact of this geographical variation may be approximately 0 and therefore the geographical complication of this election about which has been a loss of fretting my in the end not proved to be so dramatic at least in his net effect. After all that's one thing that perhaps we might have been unclear about well maybe this election is given by the most straightforward on not come to. This is b.b.c. So 6 times b.b.c. Sorry with Montcalm. We've. Had. Please. Please. Please.