Mr Johnson the Us president has been told by Jeremy cool been at the n.h.s. Would not be part of any future trade deal under a Labor government his Our political reporter Tom Bolten Jeremy Corbin setting out what would be his red lines in any negotiation but it's also an opportunity for him to remind voters here he might have welcomed Donald Trump to the u.k. But to remind voters that he doesn't necessarily see eye to eye with the Us president lawyer for 5 of Geoffrey abstains accuses has told the b.b.c. He plans to save papers to force Prince Andrew to give evidence in the cases that you give York denies seeing any suspicious behavior during visits to the convicted sex offenders home shows and says child homelessness is that its highest rate since 2006 the charity claims at least $135000.00 will be living in temporary accommodation on Christmas Day Beals is from shelter I hope what we're seeing today is people really waking up to the scale of this housing emergency what we found is that over the last year every day 183 children are becoming homeless That's one every 8 minutes it's claim festival and Ses and hot chocolate sold by some high street chains contain huge amounts of sugar more than 200 drinks were tested by action on sugar it's calling for extra taxes to be introduced Michelle Roberts is a health reporter the most sugary drink was from Starbucks a large or venti signature caramel hot chocolate made with milk and topped with whipped cream that contains 23 teaspoons all 94 grams of sugar and 758 counties some of the coffee chains involved say they offer low sugar options and the 2nd Test and said in part has ended in a gentle rain stop play 15 minutes after lunch and then we'll play was possible New Zealand's take the series one now now with the rest of the sports his rope Schofield Liverpool have been drawn at home to Everton in the 3rd round of the f.a. Cup In East. 2nd round rather m 4 back from 3 nil down to 5th to sully home movies with 15 minutes left to win 43 Charlie Austin scored a 90th minute winner Preston to send West Brom top of the championship Lino Messi and U.S.A.'s World Cup winner Meghan Rypien won the Ballon d'Or awards in Paris and John Higgins has joined Mark Allen and Matthew Stevens in the last 16 of the u.k. Championships Nuka world number one judge Trump. This is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live on digital b.b.c. open in the Philippines on Sunday and find the usually rambunctious president of the territory and the odd usual position make an apology I'm really apologizing for the country the other nations should know while we're still here of the Gulf. Doesn't happen he said at the football stadium shows run finished and workers are still rolling out the red carpet for players to walk on complain about poor food and transport delays and then they try to get them I know I was struck by a 90 mile an hour Thai food which is forcing evacuations as well as widespread then . Well typhoon Korea has come ashore with winds gusting as high as 150 miles an hour 200 sites and residents had to be evacuated from the coast on Monday just before the storm really moved in our correspondent hard Johnson is with us from an evacuation center Hello hard. Good morning from the Philippines Yes it's very wet while here you can see the trees swaying the water all over the surface lots of people inside it 600 people at the moment 3000 in this city Batangas that it's about 2 hours away from Manila and it's about an hour away to those Southeast Asian Games we've seen events canceled today in the Polo was for the safety of the athletes as well as the horses and also we've heard that there have been cancellations windsurfing and also the on the war talking about. The Southeast Asian Games a lot of woes last week because of this buildup to the games over the weekend they had a spectacular opening ceremony and lots of people here well it's a behind those boys behind a move all but Alice. And that's going to cause more problems particularly to the should you know the events here. As rotten luck old to go or a sorry to leave. An alleyway but when you said underwater hockey I'm sure a lot of people saw what underwater Ok but I believe the Southeast Asian Games this is. Almost the only games that actually treats it as a real sport it's not right. I'll be honest being here I'm so into the politics that this country is not big sports journalist I don't read much about Dave but what I do know is that this country is on the water at the moment on the law and what's happening at the moment is the. Moving over this area so the action. Or the moment the next few hours more. When the moment we've seen intensify in the last. Round. Primary he. Told. Me. I understand how or just before we go on something seems to have happened to your microphone there it just just cut and it went to a more distant sort of Mike sorry I wonder if that helps maybe maybe bring you back to us and clearer quality. But of course quite rightly you recall me to they are of the situation and it sounds as if it's going to get worse before it gets better oh boy and says are lying I'm afraid to hire Johnson says if we're going to have to do some thinking about this to try to repair it so let's try once again. No I'm sorry Howard Howard Johnson has left us for the time being we're try to restore that line but let's let's carry on if you don't mind and talk about a stranding in the Australian outback an extraordinary story this of survival a 2nd person No found alive after being stranded in the outback for 2 weeks a group of 3 travellers got into trouble when their vehicle became stuck in a riverbed just south of Alice Springs in the 3rd person is unfortunately still missing we're joined by Shaima collegial Hello Iraq how are you Extraordinary indeed given. The very hot weather conditions as well in this area can you tell us something of their story Well well 1st off just to kind of give you a context of how it is if you play imagine this area. Be on a map I mean imagine the whole of Australia and if you put a dot to get north from the center that's how remote it is that's how kind of back they were the 3 people who was found today Temora Riley who was found yesterday and Claire Hockridge who is still missing as you mentioned they were then went on a trip in the Australian outback So a little bit south of Alice spring in that area. They were stranded when their car got stuck in a river beds the hugh river what Temora was saying yesterday when she was found and people and the press were speaking to her that they staged by the car for 3 days trying to free it there had she had her dog with her by the way her dog ray and it was just so hot and so extraordinary that they just couldn't they did used up all of their water supplies all of their food supplies and they just could not get the car out it was extremely difficult at that point 2 of them food trend and Tamra's partner Claire decided to go go for a walk and to find help so the group said we're all going to split up some were going to try and walk towards the highway Tamar. Stayed close to the car because she didn't she wasn't sure that her dog Ray would survive a very long walk in these very hot conditions. And they were just missing as you say for nearly for nearly 2 weeks now vibing and extremely The scorching conditions at that time of year extraordinarily though tomorrow's Eid by finding a water hole that she then used and it's now clear that food trend has also done the same thing he did was a long distance he was discovered by a farmer in a farming area and he had survived all this time. I'm by digging up water and drinking waters. They have extraordinary survival skills and these are not just people setting off for a walk in the desert. Absolutely and you I mean you would think when you set off on you would be prepared and you know. The 3. Judging from the list that they had drink you know they they were they were prepared for for a tough trip they were prepared for things to get out and so they have prepared them selves with their food with their water but then you get stranded in an area and you're far far away from any kind of help things are going to get tough really really quickly at some point tomorrow saying that it just got so hot in the day that they had to dig up. Under the car almost dig up a hole and sit and sit there because they just could not survive sitting in the car in that heat during the day they could sleep in the car during the night but at one point they realize that you know despite their best efforts trying to get the car out food was running out water was running out it wasn't very hygienic and they needed to move and as they moved and split up that's when things got really difficult because each was on their own in a very very remote area but police said as well because this area is so diverse you know you've got Sen Junes you've got Hardrock you've got dense trees it was really difficult to look for them and all the city had to look for them by helicopters but as you say really good surviving skills because the one thing that you need in this in this territory is that you have to stay dehydrated I mean they're still quite quietly hydrated but managed to find enough well water for them to survive we still don't know what's happened to Claire Hockridge she still remains missing. Thank you very much. Well when we last heard from her Johnson the typhoon. Still intensify in the Philippines let's return. To our correspondent at the evacuation center Hello again her. Yeah I spoke with you I was saying that my clothes. Are Quitman is also getting wet here. But we can see. Coming into the center now that soaked through all shivering in the cold 2 guys next to me completely you know what the wind blows here and it's really creating a wind chill here as well so you can see lots of ice getting blankets and towels and moving into the evacuation center given but yeah lots of these here all the 600 people in this evacuation center 3000 across the city but I guess around 2 hours away from an airline. And the government well prepared them. Well this is a country gets by Typhoon quakes all the time 20 typhoons this you know so far this is the 20th being the last of earthquakes in the south of the country as well so it does have a very stringent evacuation. Procedures in place for these. We can see here. Filling in for years old so you can see on the left just behind. All of this has a number of found these numbers need to vigils male female so it really breaks down the patient to find out who's here and who might potentially be missing but at the moment this storm is a great 3 Grade 0 back some grade of 5 so it's not the worst storm but it's certainly packing a punch with the winds and the rain and we began by talking about the. Games are they safe are they all right. Well most of them are quite the Clock City the new hot city complex in the athletes' village which I saw this week that's relatively repast building not complete but I should add we saw that some of the blocks had been completed in time for the games but I assume that they would be safe in those venues we've seen one that you quite close to him. Say taking a battering this morning at the moment no reports of any athletes suffering any ill effects from this weather but definitely 3 events to be counsel so far. Towards the home and also the. Subic Bay Area the thing. Where we thank you very much for. Thanks. Well the dogs are man's best friend the one in particular has been honored for his efforts helping his owner 5 lives ruined bridge had been finding out about how a very good boy called Bentley who's a Labrador helped a 6 year old girl make in a marriage the coal when her mom had a fall. So this all happened about 2 weeks ago. Was a time she slipped to the top of the stuff and fell down the block but she was couldn't move it so the only of the person in the house was a 6 year old daughter on it because she had headphones on was in one of the other rooms completely oblivious to what was going on Bentley as you say is the family's black Labrador and so when she was unable to move me shouted for Bentley to help. I said Bentley get the phone he understood what you wanted Yeah so he got the phone and I needed all his attention so I said then Les Tell her tell us tell us tell us . And and then he just carried on barking until she took I have phones off and then she came running out and saw me on the floor how did you know what to do because she and I sat and remember what you got told to skill. Building 7 is a page of breathing. Tell me exactly what. I'm going to ask you some questions my name son of Ok How will. Talk. I'm. In and day which is an emergency medical dispatcher from Northwest ambulance service and I took the call off on a brain completely changes when you realize it's a child calling and you have to think well they actually can say and if they're actually going to answer each question correctly and if they actually understand what you're actually asking then she did absolutely brilliant it was very and she answered all new questions without hesitation she didn't really know what part of the body what part of the body to. Me is I've never told the numbers to dial I've never told her what to do and say which is quite stupid on my part bathe in the house on my own but at school they would teach you know the week before today so luckily. She named. Me would simply. Say on the inside. My Ok let me know when I write that I'm still a bit stiff in the nag but I'm Ok present but I'm all right back in Dr again the prairie dog is right unbelievably shallow the best stock in the wells and no one believes that he did it but he did and he's a great dog. Now both on I'm Bentley I've been given since If you today by the ambulance service for their conduct you're not cool Ron bridge telling a story of Bentley and his very happy owner well assurance and they soon who joins us from Taipei Hello Cindy. Good morning good morning well what would you like to talk to us about. Well the 1st thing is a very interesting survey the latest one by the government which regularly conducts surveys on Taiwanese opinions about mainland China as you know you know China still claims Taiwan as a province and has not given up to force the use of force to get back one day so the latest survey shows some very interesting numbers it shows that for the 1st time there's a 10 year high in terms of the percentage of people who favor independence so now it stands at 27 percent of the population favor Taiwan's formal independence from China so that you know some of my listeners might not know the 2 sides separated since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 now but if you look a little bit more carefully at the numbers only 6 percent of these people actually want independence right now 21 percent 21.7 percent to be exact actually are happy with eventual independence and if you look even more further at the numbers it shows that 31 percent want some kind of resolution but it did to have no timeline it to say it depends on the political will of both sides and the situation of both sides and another 25.8 percent want to maintain the status quo for ever basically these people basically don't even care if Taiwan eventually achieves formal independence and then we still have some people who are favor unification 8.9 percent but they're happy with again to status quo for now so if you add all those people who are fine with maintaining the current situation is actually 87.4 percent so that's majority of time just want to keep things the way it is they don't favor independence or unification. Because China is really pushing in a way that doesn't for some years well actually to to be to be correct you know the international community has in some ways been misled I think by the current Taiwanese administration is tying one it's her party and herself who has been sort of moving Taiwan towards. A path of independence so many people would say because China never actually set a timeline for unification and before the president's high and her party came into power from about 2008 to 2016 over 8 years it was basically maintaining to status quo and to both sides got along quite well actually it was unprecedented good relations between both sides neither side talked about unification or independence they were happy to just push push aside their differences and focus on what they could work on but after President I came into office she has actually many would say disrupted the status quo because she refuses to recognize. An agreement reached between the 2 sides in 1902 that there is only one China but each side can define what that China is so the the People's Republic of China can say it's the people People's Republic of China in mainland China and the Republic of China and Taiwan can say it's the Republic of China so basically de agreed to disagree but that status quo has been disrupted it will be very interesting to see what the voters choose in the elections less than a month about a month away on January 11th what are they would give President another a 2nd term in office or whether they would choose a tentative from the main opposition party k.m.c. Which had as I mentioned earlier enjoyed very good relations with China before Mr came into power. Any clues from the. Do opinion polls show that she is leading by a very large margin ahead of her competitor the main competitor for a position party can she and many people believe the reason why she's leaving is not because she's been doing a wonderful job it's because actually the economy has been lackluster not in not much improvement in terms of you know economic issues it's because she did she has benefited vastly from the Hong Kong protests and she has actually campaigned large the in the past few months on fear debt. Basically spreading fear that Taiwan could become the next call now her her opponent and the opposition party has argued against they say in Taiwan is in no way the same as Hong Kong it has been governing itself as a separate independent country for decades it's a democratic democracy it enjoys free elections and many many freedoms people don't have and there's no threat of Taiwan becoming the next desk in many ways undermining Taiwan's democracy in bid literally Taiwan the president's high and her party repeatedly on was in every campaign speech race. As an example of what you know voters here should should be careful about and as a reason for voting for her basically. What's going on with Facebook bit of tension with Facebook Well yes well Facebook you know is quite aware of its reputation has been tarnished you know over the past year or so because people have used Facebook to manipulate public opinion ahead of the elections during elections and we're seeing that you know in other countries and so it launched a campaign mid-month in mid November say weeks ago to 2 actually Taiwanese Facebook pages of misinformation disinformation fake fake ads basically political ads put out by people who don't identify themselves correctly and also just basically what they call it that operations you know campaigns to try to spread misinformation to to mislead voters to spread rumors. And they're saying to going to do this with some $35000.00 staff who are in charge of. Security and and contents and they claim that the staff you know speak many different. Speak many languages and they're able to understand the nuances in Taiwanese politics and they're going to weed out paren the anything that they disapprove of Facebook postings but that sounds like a quite a ambitious undertaking because there are 19000000 Facebook users in Taiwan of a population of 23 and a half 1000000 so that's practically everyone. And you know it's not clear how Facebook is going to do. The. Taiwanese connection to. Who is claiming asylum in Australia and the Chinese. Yes this is again election related I mean basically I'm sorry elections dominating everything in Taiwan right now but this. And he claims he's a Chinese spy and he claims that he was hired to run these operations not only in Taiwan but in Hong Kong and Australia basically to influence public opinion and what he said he did was employ you know an army of cyber disruptors you know people who are like college students studying here a Chinese college student studying here who would basically spread information on social media that would be damaging to the president's high to try to reduce her chances of getting reelected and he says you know. The Chinese operation that he was part of actually even infiltrated the media as well as tempos and grassroots organizations by paying the money so basically getting them to agree to you know like for instance what the media children are to close their favor go towards. Opponent president's opponent it's not exactly clear how he influenced tempos but you would think that what he's trying to get out is that you would pay temples and somehow influence their worshippers to follow diplomatic stance so anyway so he says all of this very publicly on Australian media is a tell all kind of interview with 60 Minutes in Australia and other media. So the Taiwanese ruling party and president have made a big deal about. Basically saying See I Told You So you know there are Chinese spies in China is out to to manipulate our elections our democracy but if I just the no evidence and the Australian Government hasn't actually confirmed that they think disguise a spy he's seeking political asylum but they haven't granted him political asylum and there are a lot of naysayers including from the opposition party here who are saying that this is all cooked up to try to help President win. They believe that this man basically his case is not considered credible by the Australian Government so he's turning to the media to get it is camping out there but not to Tony's government at the same time has acted. In recent days to arrest not arrest but to. Keep a man that despite claims as his boss who hired him from leaving Taiwan now this man and his wife have been coming to Taiwan regularly buying luxury property and he's based in Hong Kong but on his last visit last week when he was about to leave Taiwan how many Saudis picked him up for questioning and even though they haven't charged him with anything they haven't detained him but they have issued a restriction against him leaving Taiwan so the plot thickens but yet we have no evidence really so it is something that has been society that waiting to see where the evidence is. Thank you very much no problem. It's just going up to past 4. On digital b.b.c. Sounds small street but this is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live there was the news out of Hodges police investigating a crash which left a 12 year old boy dead have arrested a 51 year old man on suspicion of murder he was hit by a car outside a school in Laos in Essex for teenagers and a woman were also her present terms landed in London for the naysayers summits who also attend a reception at Buckingham Palace and hold talks with Boris Johnson a lawyer for women who accuse Geoffrey Epstein of abusing them has told the b.b.c. They want Prince Andrew to give evidence in their cases papers are expected to be filed in the us in an attempt to force him to be interviewed as a witness the prince has denied seeing anything suspicious there are calls for coffeeshops to reduce the amount of sugar in some festive drinks tests show a camel hot chocolate in Starbucks contains 23 teaspoons of sugar company says it's committed to reducing sugar in drinks and the 2nd Test and sudden Park has ended in a draw rain stop play 15 minutes after lunch and then we'll play it was possible he's even take a series one nil now with the rest of the sports his rope Scofield's Liverpool have been drawn at home to Everton in the 3rd round of the f.a. Cup in the 2nd round rather and 4 back from 3 nil down to 5th to Sally home Moore's with 15 minutes left to win 43 Charlie Austin scored a 90th minute winner Preston to send West Brom top of the championship Lino Messi and U.S.A.'s World Cup winner Meghan Rypien are have won the Ballon d'Or awards in Paris and John Higgins has joined Mark Allen and Matthew Stevens in the last 16 of the u.k. Championships Nuka world number one judge Trump. This is b.b.c. Radio 5 Live on digital b.b.c. Sound small speak up. Good morning it was a pretty chilly start to the week for most of us on Monday but the exception was the father Wolf and. The u.k. High temperature yesterday was in Highland Scott the week of about 10 degrees but with. These new. Day with a fair amount of crowd as well Southwest. Means it's not particularly cold but at the other end of the country crossing the. South and the east. Chilly and in places frosty start with a little bit of. Potentially some patches to deal with as well particularly. In the Southeast fringing up into the south Midlands these areas could potentially have some quite dense folks take us through this morning's rush hour much of that should tend to live in across England and Wales with patches and sunny spells that will stay predominantly drivers there with single digit temperatures for most of the highs of 8 degrees in Manchester reason card in London perhaps up to 11 in Plymouth and then further north across. Scotland well here a lot of cloud around St. Some breaks appearing in that especially across eastern counties and the eastern side temperatures here 7 degrees or Belfast Glasgow Aberdeen but in Stornoway and in love it's still pretty mild across oceans and Western extremities as we go through this evening and tonight so. Some clear. Could see some folks patches especially across southern and eastern parts of England maybe a touch of process as well but some are going to be dry with some sunny spells off to some folks a little bit of rain in Scotland rich with a nice fall it was one of the biggest upsets in the history of heavyweight boxing. Saturday night and city Joshua has his chance to regain his title is against and. It's not about a little it's just about me this is my legacy here Olivia. B.b.c. . B.b.c. Radio 5 Live. From digital b.b.c. This. Is b.b.c. Radio. This morning's election cost is a very special guest Professor John Carter explains to the rest of us while the pools are released. From the b.b.c. We are in this election because you don't want to be thinking about if you can. Find a Christmas present to anyone who comes up to you and says they know what's going to happen. Back. Out of election cast h.q. In Westminster and I'm joined by. I'm the deputy political editor and Vicky young the chief political correspondent of the b.b.c. Thank you for joining us both today I think 1st time action casts you do. What you are not going to leave it was. In the diary for a long time and it's working your way through. Anyway right serious voices because obviously we've got to talk about the continuing fallout of the attack on London Bridge on Friday afternoon we now know the name of the 2 people that died is Jack Merritt and Saskia Jones. And obviously politics over the last few days has been dominated by what happened. Yesterday on the Andrew Marr program there was a very bad tempered interview with Boris Johnson let's listen to this bit of it he was out because he was on automatic early release when the judges reviewed his sentence. In 2012 they had no option but to comply with the law that Labor brought in in 2008 which meant effective You say you've been in power for effectively that he was out he was out that they had to comply with the law as it stood and he was out in 8 is and this was a guy don't forget that Judge he said was a very serious jihad and that's why that's why when I been in office for 120 days. That's. So that was talking about why it was mine was on the streets at all and not at present I listen to our interview I was none the wiser about what happened why or why John just talk us through what we take away from it well if it's a. Pretty short clip it was rich in political culture we had a bush Johnson 1st movie ring in on the fact that the terrorist London this London Bridge terrorists will be released half way through the sentence therefore was able to commit this this crime that was critical strongest piece of piece of of point making very high because by definition it was when Tom had been in jail and had not been released he could not have killed these killed these people but it opened up a a much much wider debate about the treatment of the terrorist about rehabilitation of this about the fact the Bush don't was pointing the finger at the treatment of this man under past legislation and saying look I have been there for 120 days whatever it was and in that way clear responsibility for anything that's happened before despite the fact that as I remark pointed out you had it's weak government for very nearly a decade so look it become intensely political I think that was absolutely inevitable you can argue it was a necessary part of the process but of course Bush Johnson has played it is his strongest card and open up an exposed plug as well to do with his government his past record in office isn't really difficult judgment isn't it for political parties when this kind of thing happens and unfortunately this isn't the 1st time it's happened if you look at the last election the arena Boehm happened during a general election I remember Joe Cox of course was murdered during the referendum campaign so unfortunately these kind of incidents have happened before on a political party has to make a judgment and I think the reason boys Johnson is going really out so hard on this is partly because what happened last time is the reason they ended up in this round ready with the Labor Party about police numbers absentee people thought he came off was during all of that so you know how hard do you go out to defend your position and Boris don't. It's making the point that actually in the Conservative manifesto and we have looked this up it is in there that they want to end the automatic halfway release from prison for serious crimes so his point is I've always been against this particular policy it turns out is much more complicated than that and actually when you start going through with our legal experts our legal team in the b.b.c. Is incredibly complicated sentencing law which is changed over the years and actually you know both sides have things that they can point to and things that I think go on the attack over well I mean the thing that Gerry Corbin pointed to he was doing a speech in New York yesterday about about foreign policy but of course he talked about this and he used it as an opportunity to attack austerity. Cuts to public services could have had an effect on this incident take a probation service part privatized in 2014 resulting in disaster a disaster that was predicted by the select committee that time those serious cases state of the justice system badly undermined by a sorority cards a failure to recruit has left huge staffing shortfalls with Star supervising more cases than ever expected posing again a serious risk to our security you can't keep people safe on the cheap. This was one of the interesting things about this as a policy area is that it's not like the n.h.s. Where most people have had an experience with the n.h.s. The last few years or a relative and so you can have a sort of personal feeling about how things are going actually most people will be on probation or know someone who's on probation know someone who's at risk of radicalisation they know a little provision provisions which is not a huge emotional touched for the British public and the National Health Service is it's obviously Labor's strongest card for that reason when they talk about running down the n.h.s. In terms of resources a lot of people are naturals I absolutely you're right on that know many people feel the same way about the probation service but it's also right and fair to say. That the privatization of the provisions of this and the the shorter forms of the provisions there's been a life very publicly debated issue in its own sphere for a good long time it was since the then minister in charge Chris Grady got stuck in some water this density pretty great and the dance of the probation service when Jimmy Coburn attacks it in the way that he has look it's not opportunism this is deepest most heartfelt point about austerity about the running down of British public services and that's where he goes as a kind of default position most when you see a problem on the list and you don't get too many of these when you see a shortcoming of the public service come into the into the spotlight so of course he's planning on all of that and just as the whole argument in London Bridge has gone on for the predictable predetermined lines when it comes to labor and the Liberal Democrats it was also his post on some of the Tories it's about tougher penalties they each have their point they're reaching out to an electorate I suppose which is more likely to see the point of you know voice and I think if people are talking about this at home I think they will be of course people's initial reaction is the horror of what's happened the sympathy for the families and friends of those who've died but actually a lot of people watching the t.v. Have Friday and over the weekend will be saying how come somebody was let out who was a convicted terrorist how did this happen who was watching him why were they watching him how do you manage to convince the parole board that he was eligible for release because they didn't have to necessarily go along with that so I think if people are talking about it politicians do have to respond and of course actually for those people it is distasteful but I think it is somewhat inevitable eliminates all rights we would up with our model about the sentencing system that I knew before and yeah yeah I want Shouldn't we be debating why shouldn't politicians and I don't lecture be debating these things the principles our disaster look it took longer for the political argument to engage in the case of Grenfell power than it did in this case this in this case it took almost a matter of minutes on a Friday evening before Bush Johnson switch from being our name or sort of statesman like and taking a detached new view to making appointments and to the. You know all the rest of Grenfell's case more people died there is going to be a need a requirement for more sensitivity and a little more space between the politics and the incident itself it got pretty pretty political if you recall. Very political Well let's just have a quick listen to the Justice Secretary Robert Buckland who was on the Today programme this morning and he basically did what you just said there John so he was listening and you see him changing gear very quickly I do think we just need to pause on get the tone of this debate right but public protection has to be at the heart of the duty of any government and I have to put 1st and foremost when considering 1st of all existing offenders and secondly the future sentencing regime for terrorism I make no apology for that we've got to get it watch. So you're doing . Pay your respects so let's not politicize it let's be grown up then but you're I mean he's got more experience of the system obviously than we all have I mean he has been. Overseas now just as that could be one of the interesting things that someone has talked about is the actually the turnover the number of sectors of state justice secretaries that there have been is one of those ministries actually where people have been in and out very very quickly and there's a lot of criticism about the way the policy has been introduced and of course what complicates all this in a way when it comes this doesn't sensitivity is because those 2 young people who were murdered were there for a reason because they believe in rehabilitation that is the whole point of that meeting why they were there while there were criminals that why they were explicit they're all sitting around discussing it because of their particular view and I think that does make it slightly more complicated especially when you have Jack Merritt father saying do not use this to put forward your own views when this is what he very clearly believed and I think that does make it even more sensitive than it would have been anyway and it's true enough to say this is a guy who should not have been on the streets when you get into rehabilitation versus punishment and deterrence and all of that sort of thing it becomes very very . Very tricky not to be tried in the past have tended to fail but it does come back I think to his or says that is the point that lots of people are making about this I think that one prison is in there where they they work on all of this they put in serious offenders absolutely put through their paces and reconviction rate is far far lower than you know but it's one of prison in one prison where this is happening and this was a case where was my car getting the system moving understand he was writing letters saying I'm going to do this let me out and I will be a model citizen for 2 years he presented that face to the authorities and he came that he committed these these murders and the question if you are who is monitoring him that's when it comes to resources I think government's response to that is actually comes to security services if that is their role in this case they have had extra funding maybe unlike other areas of the criminal justice system but that is the counter-argument from the government actually lots of these people because of the 74 people who have been released automatically than are being reviewed by the Ministry of Justice but I think what the review is actually about is the conditions of the license that they're issued on because they're not just released like with. Say blank checks not blank check but when they do get monitored and those conditions they have to adhere to and so then there's questions about what are the conditions that are applied to you then this condition the questions about those things I want to serve them whether the people doing the monitoring have the resources I think I wrote about them as being so careful that wasn't he saying he's gone back he's gone back to obviously his department he's really asking them very carefully about these other 74 he wants to know for sure what is going on because again we're learning a lot more about things that we didn't know about I didn't know about. The bridge to new broom comes this is you're. Going to be a big things you say I'm nothing to do with the last Tory government no more I really believe this was not the secret message to me. To the country and you know it was he was a new force he was going to sort things out on Sunday one of the big headlines said Boris Johnson fury over the fore. She's going to be furious with the previous prime minister the previous conservative justice secretary or home secretary and the people saying look I'm going to hold this I'm a new broom on Sirius and I'm going to schools you know well Ok fine then you can take on this is where you can take on another tour we just have you know we've been pretty much know maybe she's furious you can go into a room and have a pawnshop I just want to war extent can you turn your back on your own party when they've been in government support of a tricky one try they can blame and they could also say they weren't in the majority they were in you know they were in coalition with the Liberal Democrats for 5 years you can come up with them. But then you see lots of against them voted against removing benefit can't you do favor she doesn't repugnant and as you know Mr time and time and time again we should probably turn into an equal bit of the constraints and then you think you're sincere when you see that everything up well every debate she goes to she has harangued by people who blame her for every single thing that I will listen government I do the ages ago when she was a junior minister and she disagreed with lots of it but the voters I've spoken to some of them they really I was quite interested how many raise that not just tuition fees but talked about how they would never vote for her because she was in a coalition and her voting record 2 people said to me have voting record I could never you know they were backing Labor obviously but that is why they say they're doing it so some people can escape their colleagues past and other people are just stuck with it forever yeah by the looks of things scientifically I judge that short conversation we had time to talk about some of the other policy things today labor cutting rail fares on the other night you know it's really. Not off yet the Dems are talking about mental health Purcel the Home Secretary's talking about the new tougher border policy which is actually just as tough as it probably was always going to be after. Still pretty much on a charge exactly she's personally money every border. In the country just remember when you go to Europe in years to come you have to sign up for your. Yes you have to go on the N.T.'s website to get permission to go to Brazil do the same to us to you know we'll do the same to them so how does that involve already well you know when you go to you know when you go to America as you're asked Oh yeah you have to go that website you type in your passport details in your address pay like 12 quid then press the button and then it says you've got permission to come to America they're going to do that for the e.u. We're going to do that for each citizens coming here so it's not a Visa it's just permission to travel to someone who's not there to pay for it yeah I think the e.u. Is going to be $7.00 euro's but it will last for 5 years. Oh someone who I assume doesn't need or asked Donald Trump. Or he wants to write a robbery tonight and yeah I mean walk and seen the queens in fact have you checked and he said we think you know that's a really good point is the last time we he said something just as he left that it can yeah on the pillow also I think he can thank you from the plane he tweets from the plane and say Ok so now I and some reporter nothing seems to say nothing seems to stop it was a plan for for Donald Trump always here the same with Boris Johnson as little as possible and it doesn't seem to be an awful lot in the diary but it gets a bit special people could use them. But he's not he's a major leader who is going to be leaders get together Boris Johnson to see to be very keen to be very publicly one on one with Donald Trump many great lengths to try and there's going to be a u.s. Press conference when you know John this is going to get something interesting. He's very happy to just. Say you think even from from sets off at the beginning of the day sort of it 15 minutes later the you know not going to say. It still wouldn't mention our business or soon as the cameras of that being took up of the g 7 g 8 summit and come as a he just stops he chats the last one was a press conference and they said at the beginning the White House person said he's going to take as many questions as they're all so we all piled in last all questions he went on for an hour and people right you know now yeah like come about this. We got to go to. The United States he was nothing if he was loving it and I've loved having you. Know my dad thought it doesn't mean go back to work. Like you cast the election cast from the b.b.c. a Few things have happened since we recorded that conversation with Vicki and j.p. One of them is that Boris Johnson has done a very quick t.v. Interview on a visit to Southampton where he says in his mind some people may never be capable of being. De radicalized and being steered away from the terrorist ideology and that really contrasts with a Guardian article written by David Maritz who's the father of Jack Merritt one of the people who were who was killed in the attack on Friday and he's written that what Jack would want from all of this is to walk through the door he has brought it down that door would open up a world where we do not lock up and threw away the key where we do not give indeterminate sentences he goes on Jack believed in the inherent goodness of humanity and felt a deep social responsibility to protect that now that contrasts quite starkly with what the prime minister saying is that some people could never be changed for the border you're listening to elation just from the b.b.c. I spent most of this afternoon looking at all the opinion polls that have been published in the last few weeks and some have been published in the last few months and so now my head is like a giant bingo game and I need somebody who can just explain it all to me properly so let's speak now to the polling Grrr the man who always gets it right Professor John Curtis from the University of Strathclyde Hello there. Good to it. So I'm completely bamboozled by all the numbers lots of sort of forty's thirty's low teens just explain to us what the the picture painted by the polls actually is well there are 2 things you need to know about what the polls have been doing during the course election campaign the one is they've been showing a consistent conservative lead the 2nd is that both the Conservatives and the Labor Party have made progress during the course of this campaign but not at the expense of each other but rather at the expense of the party in the case of the conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in the case of the Labor Party the net effect of all of this is that has indeed been a bit of an hour of the Conservative lead in the course of the last couple of weeks or so. But the conservatives still enjoy on average year at least the kind of Poli that ought to generate them an overall majority so to understand what's been going on there for Basically you need to understand a the way in which the election code campaign in the coding of the convent just seems to have squeezed the votes of the smaller parties but in a way that's very very clearly to do with the debate about Bret said basically the conservatives this is now the party of leave votes is on the Labor Party having lost the mantle earlier this year has regained a lot of its position as the mantle of remain voters and that's basically the dynamics the campaign up around that of course run the fact that we do now have a something like a 10 point lead for all of the concerns over labor on average yes there is variation so in the last few days we've had one poll that said maybe the Conservative lead is only 6 points which takes us to our round the point where we might begin to contemplate the possibility of a hung parliament but he created we've had another one that says it's 15 or we could be talking about a near landslide so the variation around the polls certainly does therefore mean the end of that we can't be entirely sure what's happening is in the polls raise me right in the 1st place but the trend and the structure is frankly very very clear as to what's been going on during this campaign do you think people are getting a bit too excited about this narrowing that's happening and maybe overestimating the 2 hoarseness of the 2 horse race Well yes and no I think they're exaggerating it in the sense that we are still in a position at least on the average of the polls whereby you know the conservative should gets around $350.00 seats or so in boys Johnson should be able to deliver bricks it is he is minded to do. I need a critical so there isn't much sign of the Labor Party being able to do damage to consider as everybody are losing just as much of the vote is nearly temp. Scent of his $27.00 vote is those in just as much of its vote to the conservatives now as they were 4 weeks ago so they're not extent at least yes there is a did a risk of exaggeration and certainly underestimating the way in which the conservatives really have managed to maintain their lead that said we do have to bear in mind that given probably Boris Johnson needs a bit more than a 6 point lead before we say Yeah he's all clearly home and dry that if the lead is indeed around 10 points he's not so far ahead of where he needs to be to get a majority for us to be sure that he's gotten the bike in the game we just do have to remember that this is essentially a binary election in which either Boris Johnson gets a majority in which case Breck's it should happen or he fails to get a majority and then there's a high probability that we will get him I know it's elaborate ministration charge with the Tosk of applying for an extension and going for a 2nd my friend I'm sorry it's whether or not the concert was getting a majority you know that matters not whether they have more seats than labor so that's a different The other thing of course than we do that have to bear in mind is that the conservatives do now seem to have pretty much taken old the juice for the BRICs it all arranged this idea around 6 or 7 percent of the Levite left in the hands of the BRICs the party rising Cohen just there is still potentially at least over 20 percent of remain votes in the hands of the Liberal Democrats and therefore given the Labor Party has so far demonstrated a non-trivial degree of success in squeezing the vote maybe they could squeeze a feather in otherwise these the potential for Labor to continue to make the progress it's been making in this campaign at the expense of Democrats the potential for doing more is an arithmetic at least still that runs in the case of the conservatives they've pretty much I think reached. The high watermark of what they can achieve with their electoral strategy so far so the leave Orange is been squeezes just pithy pips and skin and I'm trying to think of an equally sized other fruit that could be the remain fruit that is still got some juice left but it's just another orange is there anything right under our nose that we might be missing . Well to be honest no I mean I think the other thing that we've learnt in the last few days by the way is this election may in the end prove not to be quite so complicated people are saying we were being but being told endlessly will we're going to get big differences between one constituency in another and of course the independent conservatives might upset the apple cart and certainly you know it's very difficult for more to be opposed to one account what is the possible impact of Jim graphical variation in party performance particularly given for example that the conservative vote is so much more of a Levite than it was 2 years ago and he could see that the Liberal Democrat vote is so much much more of a Euro 5 that it was 2 years ago but now of Behold of course along came You Gov just a few days ago I think cost some light on this issue not tell you as a guy you got gave this enormous surprise with what's called the multiple regression of post I should model which is essentially a way of underlies ing a very very large amount of punting data to try to get estimates for individual decisions these are 2 years ago using the approach they told us you know what we think there might be a hung parliament when old the conventional putting on middle of the conventional party was saying the consent of his look as though they were home and dry well there was no surprise this time in the You Gov m.r.p. Model role that actually their estimate of 359 seats and 11 point Conservative lead was pretty much die on in both cases what you would expect given the state of the conventional polls by not putting was done but the crucial point therefore about that is that although indeed as we suspected this punning indicates that the conservative vote is likely to go up more in places which voted heavily to remain and therefore probably rather less amongst those places the voted remain It looks as though the Nessie effect of this geographical variation may be approximately 0 and therefore the geographical complication of this election about which has been a loss of fretting my in the end not proved to be so dramatic at least in his net effect. After the parts we might have been unclear about maybe the selections to remove the most straightforward counter. Following all that we're taking questions a little later on so we will be with testy on that the joy of the election Hello good morning this is. Just the age domain fall and eighty's let me see what they said on Monday Tuesday choose the. B.b.c. Radio much. As you through your morning I'll have