Welcome to inside story. Im ray suarez. Donald trump had a theory about a different way to win iowa. A campaign not obsessed with hitting all of the counties. And not concerned with a long presence on tv and radio. Trump relied heavily on free media, and didnt start to spend much until close to caucus night. He even skipped the last debate in the race. Ted cruz used something closer to a play book drawn from recent history. Mike huckabee and Rick Santorum who worked hard, became fixtures on christian talk radio, and spent a lot of time in iowa. In a deeply fractured field, 28 was good enough to win, and maybe good enough to slow down a trump train the polls said could be unstoppable. And while americans will continue to suffer, under a president who has set an agenda that is causing millions to hurt across this country, i want to remind you of the promise of scripture. Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. [ cheers and applause ] reporter marco rubio was also testing a different model for running in the entire primary season. He conservatived his cash, didnt spend as much time in iowa, then made a heavy commitment in the closing weeks. He came in third, but in the perverse math of iowa, third place for rubio is a win, especially since he finished way ahead of jeb bush, john kasich, and chris christie. They told me we have no chance, because my hair wasnt [ laughter ] [ applause ] they told me i needed to wait my turn. [ cheers ] i thank you, because tonight we have taken the first step, but an important step towards winning this election. And donald trump the guy who spent much of 2015 making fun of the poll showings of rivals like rand paul and jeb bush ran into his first actual balloting last night. His followers were more likely to have a High School Diploma or less, and more likely to have not even voted in previous elections. But they are passionately committed to their candidate, and less likely to actually show up. Trump underperformed, yet he too embraced iowa math. He did not use one of his goto adjectives, loser. We will go on to get the republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat hilary or bernie, or whoever the hell they throw up there. The road ahead this time on the program well begin with the victim of ted cruz and later on take a closer look at the democratic result. Joining me now rick pearlsteen, caramel martin, bruce haines, a Founding Partner of purple strategies, and doug thornel. Bruce haines did we see the first outlines of a shakeout field . I think we did. You have already seen Mike Huckabee last night dropping out of the race, and i think now we have set the agenda going into New Hampshire. Trump has his lane. He has the populous wing buttoned up. Ted cruz has the evangelical wing, and now we have a race where marco rubio has assumed the lead in the establishment wing of the republican party. And now well watch and see if the others can train their guns to move past him. Right now it looks like rubio is the third person. Do you buy, doug this idea of defining victory however it suits you coming out of the early primaries . [ laughter ] and this is not anything new for 2016. Yep. People forget that bill clinton didnt win the New Hampshire primary in 92, he came in second, but he exceeded expectations so he ladies and gentlemened himself the comeback kid. And if you listened to marco rubio you would have thought he won. You give kids participation trophies, but for politics it is all about winning. If its not New Hampshire, then they have nevada and South Carolina, and those are two places that i think nevada is a place where im going to be looking for marco rubio to win. South carolina maybe a little bit tougher territory. But every politician tries to leave these contests with momentum, and they try to make sure that they establish expectations that they can exceed, and thats why i think donald trump is in a little bit of trouble heading into New Hampshire, and maybe even Bernie Sanders, because bernie is up by 20, 25 points, he is not going to win by that much. And trump is touting polls, and i dont think he will win by that much either. Underperformed. Rick is it still a party in search for a definition . Oh, very much so. I mean the fact that you have a figure like ted cruz who is despised by all of his colleagues on capitol hill, and a figure like donald trump who is despised by all of the leaders of the conservative movement, and then you have this guy on the outside wing, rubio, whose barely out of short pants, its very hard to see how they come together with anything like the kind of unity that we saw even in the case of a figure like mitt romney who was, you know, supposedly despised by conservatives, but once he won the nomination, they got together and put their shoulders to the wheel, and had a fairly unified convention. This has been an extraordinary president ial election, ever since the beginning, and i have been saying since the beginning, that all of the old cliches that we have been using to understand president ial elections have to be revised. Caramel martin well hear from you right after the break. Well continue our look at the cruz victory in iowa, and the theories that are being worked on as we head to nevada, South Carolina, New Hampshire, supertuesday, the road ahead. Stay with us. Its inside story. Understanding the epidemic. It was terrifying. Its like navigating a minefield. Go inside the new medical breakthrough. You had quite a reaction there. Thats crazy. I really feel my life changing. The freedom is unbelievable. Techknows team of experts show you how the miracles of science. This is what innovation looks like. Can affect and surpise us. I feel like were making an impact. Lets do it. Techknow, where Technology Meets humanity. Only on al jazeera america. You are watching inside story. Im ray suarez. The road ahead, were dissexting the victories and losses in real numbers, and the translations into cam panees. Later in the program were turn our focus to the tight finish in the democratic race. Doug, caramel, bruce, and rick are still with me. And caramel, if the republican field does not does not narrow quickly, does that present a challenge to democrats who start have to game who they are running against . Well, i think it could be an opportunity. I think its a bad thing for the republican field that that they dont have someone that their side can rally behind. So i think there are pluses and minuses for democrats. I hear what you are saying that having a primary opponent to focus on is an upside for democrats, but its a bad thing for republicans that they are spinning all of this time attacking each other, and no one is gaining momentum. One other thing that i would say to respectfully disagree, i do think that rubio came out as a winner. I think thats the surprise of the night, right . The fact that he is third and so close to trump, and trump, i think did come out as a loser, because going into last night, there was this expectation that trump could win and win by a wide margin. I think cruz winning by a significant margin was a really good thing for him, but the person coming out of iowa with momentum is rubio. Whereas on the republican side there was less news there. We knew it was going to be an extremely close race. I think secretary clinton comes out with some momentum from winning. The other thing is iowa we need to keep in mind is iowa is not really representative of the country, so what last night tells us about the race moving forward, i think is limited, because i think as you get to more diverse states you could see very different results. While it is undoubtedly true that iowa is not representtive of the rest of the country, if you add up the votes of cruz, rubio, and carson, two cuban americans and a black guy won a majority of republican votes in iowa tonight. Bruce you are nodding. Are we missing a story here . No, i think its a terrific story. Its not always just positions on issues, but its a lot like barack obama, what aspiration do i see for myself in the campaign of another. Look at marco rubio he is a great campaigner. He has the best set of candidate skills in the republican field. Having those kinds of candidates in our field i think is a real strength as we move forward, particularly against these older whiter candidates like Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton. Rick, im sorry, i cut you off. Yeah, ron brownsteen has been doing very impressive empirical working looking at what the coalition is. Iowa does look like the republican party. The republican electorate is older. It is whiter. Occupationally it resembles the occupations of the 80s. They are like americas 25 years ago. And when you have a candidate like donald trump beginning his candidacy, literally proposing one of the most massive ethnic cleansing in the history of man kind this really is an appeal to an america that no longer is, and yeah, you can have a young guy from cuba, and you can have a handsome speaker who is a cuban american, but people came from cuba to america because there were exiled, and thats another thing donald trump has done. He has said we should welcome exiles and then did a 180degrees flip and joined the rest of the field in basically talking about the retchet of the family. The first results are in. Well turn to the democrats in a moment. State with us. Its inside story. Welcome back to inside story. Im ray suarez. As i have mentioned earlier in the program, primary seasons point out the difference between math and campaign math. Hillary clinton won the iowa caucus last night, if only by a whisker. She has been awarded more delegates to the nominating process than Bernie Sanders, and yet many are ready to describe the win as a loss and in the case of Bernie Sanders a win. It is rare it is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas. [ cheers and applause ] to really think hard about what the Democratic Party stands for, and what we want the future of our country to look like if we do our part to build it. [ cheers and applause ] nine nine months ago, we came to this beautiful state. Organization. Thank you we had no money. We had no name recognition, and we were taken on the most powerful Political Organization in the United States of america. [ cheers and applause ] and tonight while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie. [ cheers and applause ] the road ahead this time on inside story. Still with me to close with the democrats are rick pearlsteen, caramel martin, bruce haines, and doug thornel, not as a partisan but as a political pro, numbers. I think if you look at the entrance polling, if you are looking for a candidate that you want to be experienced; that you put that as your top premium, then Hillary Clinton ran away with that. If you are looking for someone who will continue the policies of barack obama, Hillary Clinton ran away with that. If you are looking for someone to go in a different direction, a more liberal direction, then Bernie Sanders picked up those votes. If you are age 45 or older, more senior, if you are middle income, Hillary Clinton did very well. The younger voter category, Bernie Sanders ran away with that. So i think what we saw, and what were going to see is this battle between within the Democratic Party is head versus heart. Because there was another poll that say who do you think the most electable in november, and Hillary Clinton ran away with that too. But Bernie Sanders has been able to mobilelize and excite. I think hell be the favorite heading into New Hampshire. His biggest problem, though, along with the electability question in november is that he really has not been able to broaden his message to connect with his hispanics and African Americans. You talked about iowa not reflecting the country. Iowa and New Hampshire i love iowa, i worked in iowa a couple of times, it does not reflect the Democratic Party. So when we move into states like nevada and South Carolina there will be a lot more African Americans and hispanics. They are right now heavily supportive of secretary clinton. Well see if bernie can chip away at that by winning in New Hampshire, sending an message candidate. Right now, Bernie Sanders has a big bulge in the Public Opinion polls coming out of New Hampshire. The way we play this expectation game, if Hillary Clinton still loses, does she become comeback kid reducks . I think that will give her momentum moving into South Carolina and the other states, but regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, i think what you are going to see i agree in the democratic primary field the way to win and really the way to win the general is to show you can be responsive to a Diverse Group of voters. I think it hasnt been a bad thing for Hillary Clinton that she has tough competition from Bernie Sanders. I think they make each other better candidates. They have helped each other to sharpen not just their policies, and as though secretary said in your clip, the thing that is refreshing is it is a battle about a substantive debate. They are not that different in terms of the thing thats are promoting, but they are focused on the issues and not attacking each other personally, or push xenophobic fears. So i do think at the end of the day secretary clintons experience will be compelling. Bruce mentioned diversity. I would say what is lost in what secretary clinton accomplished last night is she is the first woman to ever win the iowa caucuses. And thats a pretty significant achievement, and its historic. And so you know, we go ahead. Im sorry. We talk about the past and future. Bernie sanders is the first person to win delegates at a president ial election who is not christian. Were not the White Christian nation anymore. And the striking thing about Hillary Clinton is as she goes forward, i think there is a big difference in their vision for the country, in that Hillary Clinton has pledged not to raise taxes for anyone making 250,000 or less. Which really is going to handcuff her in the kind of policy proposals to address the kind of things that Bernie Sanders has been able to address. He has had a very young base of support. Young people are graduating these days with an average of 20,000 in college debt, and when he talks about making college free, when he talks about forgiving those kinds of debts, you are getting standing ovations. So we have a future casting going on in the Democratic Party too. Barack obama did very well among highincome americans. I heard Bernie Sanders telling an interviewer the other day straight up that taxes were going to have to go up for certain earners and by a lot. It is going to be very interesting, yeah. So that changes that dynamic. Thats right. Yeah. With high educated, high income voters maybe taking a second look at the idea of their taxes going up from the 39 range to something closer to 52, 53, 54 . Thats a hard hit. Sorry. I was just going to say doug talked about those fundamentals and there are a couple of things if you look back to the race when hilary ran against barack obama that are similar that are think are troublesome for Hillary Clinton. And there are two entrance poll questions that Bernie Sanders ran away with, which candidate is the one that you trust the most, and you feel is honest. Bernie sanders ran away with that number. The other one is really interesting. Who cares more about people like me . Thats another one that Bernie Sanders ran away with. And when you move into the general election, and sometimes its not as much about the intricacies about the policy positions, and where are you going to set a threshold on raising taxes and things like that, but people are just trying to find somebody that they relate to, that they feel reflects their values, would govern and make decisions the way they would want them to govern and make decisions. Those are two things that have bedevilled Hillary Clinton in past bids, and she is going to them. One interesting thing to look at, though, go back to 2008, she came in third on that question of who cares about me. She was able to rebound and win in New Hampshire, and actually win on that quality. Thats right. So that is a very i totally agree thats why she is not president today. You mentioned the quality and you mentioned that its important that she figures out how to get there. And she hampshire. Can she sustain it . That is a big question. The center poll of the two parties have moved further apart, leaving primary candidates scrambling towards the middle once the nominating conventions are over. Cover . That. Very quickly, rick . Yeah, i reported on Bernie Sanders rallies in texas, and the first two people i met were republicans who said they were very excited by Bernie Sanders, one of whom said he considered him moderate. So like i say this election cycle has thrown a lot of thing into the hat and we need to look at things differently, possibly. Will the democrat or republican have a harder time reaching the middle . I think theres no question, the republicans. I think you know, i think you could argue that Bernie Sanders is more liberal than Hillary Clinton, but they are both responding to the needs of every day americans. They both are very focused on how to provide families with the supports they need like paid leave, sick days, how to deal with the stagnant wages, so i dont think either of them would have to pivot very far. Bernie sanders, really . Isnt he left of any major candidate in recent cycles . Thats true, but the things he is taking on i think one of the reasons you are seeing populous candidates be so successful in unprecedented ways is because what people want to hear is that that that you are working for me. That you are responding to the needs that i have, and not the needs of corporate interests. So i think they both have that message. I think Hillary Clinton is more moderate in her perspective so shell have less of an issue there. But in the republicans, i think donald trump has a little bit ironically pushed the republican field even further to the right than they were already headed before he was a real contender, and i think thats a real problem for them. I think they are not responsive voter. I want to thanks my guesting, caramel martin, doug, bruce, and rick. Tomorrow the zika virus spreads on american soil for the first time. Im ray suarez. Thats the inside story. Have a great night