Welcome to inside story, im ray and banking and farming and manufacturing, 12 counties representing two fifths of the worlds Economic Activity are ready to pull their economies into closer harmony with the Trans Pacific partnership and countries in different stages of development from vietnam to the United States will be partners, open markets that are rich and small like australias with countries that are young, large and poor to vietnam to countries that are huge and rich like the United States. As with any trade deals there are likely to be winners and users like nafta on all sides of the north American International borders and al jazeeras patricia has more. Reporter its been five years in the making. We have successfully concluded the trans partnership. Promises. Its the highest standard trade agreement in history. Its got strong provisions for workers and the environment. Reporter but what will the Trans Pacific partnership between the u. S. And 11 other countries really mean to the American People . The deal will also allow american corporations to outsource even more jobs abroad. Reporter critics like former labor secretary robert rice argue the agreement will shift u. S. Jobs to countries standards. In other words, its a trojan bottom. Reporter but supporters say while the deal may cost low paying, lowskilled jobs tearing down trade barriers will get larger jobs. Peter institute has advised on the tpp negotiation and seen the draft text. When you think about what a trade agreement can do, it is opening up important new export opportunities and those export jobs unbalance generally pay much higher salaries, much higher wages, 18 or so. Reporter supporters and critics are also divided on the deals environmental impact, but opponents argue provisions geared at safeguarding marine and other wildlife and tackling practices like illegal logging can prove toothless. Free trade agreements have never been tools to lift up environmental standards. Reporter she heads the program. What we know about the chapter is the rules will really be too weak to have a meaningful meaning on the ground. Reporter big corporations to sue private governments over private tanking regulations are also drying fire. Free trade agreements being used to broaden and challenge Environmental Policies in the private trade courses. Reporter this is far from a done deal and with major hurdles yet to clear including approval from the u. S. Congress expect the arguments to get even more heated especially when the full text of the agreement is valuable for all to see. Patricia sobga, al jazeera. You down with tpp . This time on the program if an agreement that creates one of the Worlds Largest trading blocks works, other countries will want to get in like south korea and indonesia, if it doesnt work member countries might wish they hadnt. What are the chances here in the United States can the president make the economic and political argument a generation after a republican George Hw Bush negotiated nafa and bill clinton had to talk about it and we have the president of the Economic Strategy institute and the author of japan restored, how japan can reinvent itself and why this is important for america and the world. And a lot of people are just getting to tpp now, what are the essentials, what is important for them to know about what this does and how it changes the rules in play right now . What is important to know is this the big economically and internationally for the United States. The economic gains are potentially quite significant because we are talking about an agreement that you count all 12 partners embraces 40 of gdp and includes three of our largest four trading partners and also includes some of the Fastest Growing economies in Asia Pacific Region, region projected to have about three billion people in the middle class by 2030. So the u. S. Needs much more access to these markets. Right now the u. S. Economy is relatively open, relatively low tariff and few trade barriers that are nontariff and that is not true as our exporters deal with the countries that are a part of the agreement. Same question. Im going to disagree with miram because the available economic evidence shows the Economic Impact is not so big for the United States. What it shows is that after ten years of joining the Trans Pacific partnership u. S. Gdp will only be about 80 billion higher, that is on a more than 21 trillion economy when we go out that far in the future. What about the notion we already have a relatively open economy, that its really the United States trying to get into asian markets that is attractive about this. You have struck on the important point ray in we have a relatively open economy. This economy is not about free trade, its rewriting the rules how the Global Economy is going to work. Rules matters and markets are based on rules and who gets to participate in writing the rules is really important for who wins and who loses from such an agreement and what weve seen over the past five years is that the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement has been written in secret behind closed doors with only the biggest, most powerful biggest lobbyist in the process. What do people need to know about the tpp . A little of what adam said, the deal is actually not so much about asia, of the 750 Million People who live in the tpp countries 500 million of them are americans. We are not really opening many markets. We already have Free Trade Agreements with mexico and singapore and peru and canada and what is added to the Free Trade Agreements is population of 350,000, malaysia, small, mediumsized economy, vietnam a poor one and japan but japan is you cant look at japan as kind of being added because we already have a whole string of agreements with japan. And so, in fact, the opportunity for greater american exports is just not very much. What about adams point that this rewrites the rules of how other . We have a Free Trade Agreement with korea that was completed in 2012, this is essentially the same deal except countries. But these are evolutionary and this is not revolutionary and you know we say 40 of the world economy, but the nafta, canada, mexico and the u. S. Count for two thirds of that and the u. S. Is big and we are not opening the market for ourselves because its already open to ourselves. You had something good to say about this deal, does it affect different americans in different regions in different ways . Well, i think it will when we see more of the details and we are able to assess which Congressional District for example will benefit the most and which u. S. States will benefit the most but its important to remember 85 of the worlds consumers live outside of the country and we will trade with ourselves that is a limited pool. We have to be able to engage internationally and have to be able to maintain a clear Competitive Edge and this agreement will help us do that because right now there are 18,000 products whose tariffs reduced or removed by disagreement and that will enable us to become much more diversified and competitive in those markets but we cannot compete now and for example take vietnam, a u. S. Manufacturer of car parts faces a tariff of about 20 bringing parts into vietnam. China with a Free Trade Agreement with vietnam doesnt have the barrier or take malaysia and they face 40 of tariff getting into malaysia and those are the barriers of u. S. Products that will disappear with the products. We will continue the conversation and losing tpp would be a block on Barack Obamas legacy as it and what about who oppose him on Everything Else or democrats weary of trade deals and the fight over the Trans Pacific partnership, are you down with tpp . Its the inside story. Ive seen people sittin there for 10, 11 months and not even know why they was in jail. If you dont have any money, youre finished. You get mental scars from this. How many kids have they thrown away . Faultlines. What do we want . Al jazeera americas hardhitting. Today the will be arrested. Groundbreaking. Theyre firing canisters of gas at us. Emmy awardwinning, investigative series. They dont fear anything. Theyre consuming economically important species were offering something on our menu that noone else is offering. You are watching inside story im ray suarez and president obama at some point will Tell Congress he intends to sign the Trans Pacific partnership and a starter gun for 90 day debate of consideration and more time can be granted if Congress Requests it and will that timeline mean the president has to balance his need to assemble a majority in support of a deal against the rising volume of a hotly contested primary season in the race for the white house and adam of the Roosevelt Institute and strategies intuit institute are still with me and they are against who and who . There are so many interesting in the agreement because its not just a Free Trade Agreement and really covers every kind of Economic Activity under the sun and how governments can regulate and conduct Public Policy with relation to that so there is a lot of agricultural interests and manufacturing interest and Public Health interest about how this expands, protections for medicines. The trans sends party . That transcends parties in is they should. I mean this agreement should be fly specced and it will be interesting to see how the coalition comes together because as adam said there has been some concern that it might benefit big business at the expense of American Workers. On the contrary what we have heard so far some parts of big business we dont like what we are hearing and an interesting piece in the times yesterday saying i want to wait and see the details because it helped American Workers much more than i thought and again i think the administration all along has been trying to forge an agreement that will rewrite the rules in a way that helps the u. S. With strong environmental and labor standards and protection for innovation and the initial property that the u. S. Economy depends on and tearing down the tariff and barriers we discussed earlier. A generation ago we were implementing nafta which you helped negotiation and we are still learning lessons, positive and negative from nafta and when we hear about things like labor accords and environmental guarantees have we learned lessons from nafta that wont make them as full of swiss cheese as some earlier agreements were . I think this agreement will very much be debated in the shadow of nafta and not just nafta but other agreements like bringing china in the World Trade Organization under the Free Trade Agreement with north korea because in the cases the political leaders went to the congress and said sign this deal, its going to create jobs and be more protecting for American Workers and intellectual protection for american high tech and open foreign markets, reduce the american trade deficit and in each case the actual result was that our trade deficit got bigger, we lost jobs and the protections, environment, labor and so forth, turned out to have two problems. One problem was that many of the countries that signed up for them didnt really have their heart in enforcing them and for geo political reasons the United States never really hit hard on enforcement or retaliating because they werent enforced because the u. S. Had bigger fish to fry with the countries that were subject of the deals. Will we do a better job of it this time or are you pointing out they are all flawed . That is the question. I mean, i think that certainly the negotiators have the experience of the past deals and so that has been incorporated into these deals. On the other hand when i hear the president talk about driving american cars in the streets of tokyo, i wonder what planet he is on. And i think adam is right, this is going to be this deal is going to be debated in the political season. Lets take nafta as an example, in the case of nafta the American Business community was behind it, the chamber of commerce and the Business Roundtable had meetings every morning assigning ceos to go see congressmen and senators and so forth. That same fervor is not in the business community. Stay with us, we will continue the look at the Trans Pacific partnership and the rough road it may have to travel to passage, when you run your eye down the list of participating countries one prominent but its absence is china, why, can you really talk about Trans Pacific trade without the new giant economy already a big partner of a number of countries that are members of tpp like peru, australia and japan. Are you down with tpp . Its the inside story. Welcome back to inside story, im ray suarez, adam hersh of the Roosevelt Institute and summit strategies and clide are still with me and talking about the Trans Pacific trade deal and assuming its no accident that china is not a signatory, was not part of the negotiations, but ive heard a lot of different explanations for why so adam hersh why is china not part of this deal . Well, this deal was conceived as a way to address the challenge of economically and politically rising china in the Asia Pacific Region but has not been constructed in such a way challenge. When i look at the agreement i look at things like the rules of origin which says what percent of the content of a good has to be produced in a Trans Pacific partnership country. And they are set so low and the reality is these barriers are so loose that content from chinese producers are going to get into the tpp and get the preferential Market Access without making the reciprocal kind of Market Access in china. Chinese companies are already heavily invested and have agreements in most of the tpp countries so the idea that we are going to ring fence them out with this agreement just doesnt make sense. And then we have not included in this agreement what is one of the biggest trade issues with china which is currency manipulation, if we dont have enforceable disciplines about currency manipulation, how are table . Clide is china out for political rather than economic reasons, adam just noted china already has Major Investments whether its mining, in australia, manufacturing in malaysia, cross investments with china. I think china is out for practical reasons primarily. Remember initially japan wasnt in it either and one of the reasons japan wasnt in this was because the negotiators just thought this is going to be a hard deal to do and if we add japan with the peck pecularities it will be hard and do a High Standard agreement and i think the negotiators felt at least in one area that china just its internal economy was not at the point where it was going to be just practically possible to add china to this group of countries particularly after japan came in and have a deal. Now, i saw a report just i think this morning which said the chinese had initially expressed an interest in coming in but then had later decided to stay out but have more recently expressed interest in joining later, so i dont think that the i think a lot of the rhetoric around containing china has been over done. Mariam if you signed deals with people are you less likely to fight them . China is arguing with vietnam and philippines and philippines talking about being in tpf down the road, expanding its borders, rattling sabors on various land borders, is china more tameable outside . Well, ray, this is both an evolutionary agreement and revolutionary agreement so just as we said earlier this is in earlier agreements but the most significant one we have seen in 20 years, since the iraguay and since nafta and this is huge in terms of not just tearing down the barriers that enable u. S. Companies especially Service Providers to go in asia much more easily but also in terms of writing these new rules we have been talking about to help the Digital Economy and Labor Department dealing with anticompetitive nature of state owned enterprise and its a High Standard agreement and open to all members of apac and includes china and has been watching this agreement very carefully and at times made noises about youre not leaving us out are you and other times hinted its interested. Its not an invitation process as the u. S. Government has made clear. If any country, just as japan wanted to, and then mexico and canada wanted to come in you have to raise your hand and make the case to each of the partners as to why you are able to adopt the very High Standards and the commitments to broad liberalzation that is at the essence of this new partnership. How long very quickly before we go, quick answer, how long before we know whether this lives down to your lack of expectations or up to yours, how long does it take before we know whether something works . Well, we are expecting to see the text made public in the next month or so and then people will have the opportunity to scrutinize what really has been agreed to in the deal. We have a sluggish Global Economy and imf lowered it to 3. 1 . Tpp will bring a little over economy. A long time because many of the provisions dont kick in until down the road. Clyde president of the Economic Strategy institution and adam hersh visiting from Columbia University for policy dialog and mariam is a partner at summit strategies in a nonresident fellow at brookings and great to talk to you all a minute for a thought with free trade and the pivot to asia, stay with us on inside story and send us thought at ag story inside a. M. Or follow me and get in touch at ray suarez news or visit our Facebook Page and tell us what you think of the Trans Pacific partnership, what it will mean to you in your job and where you live, we would love to hear about it. Stay with us. Asian trade has long been held out as the great eldarado for American Business full of promise, made of gold but in the end mythical and Market Access is the carrot dangled in front of american citizens and think of malaysia who will buy american stuff and American Companies will be able to compete to provide services in australia without having to navigate internal laws that favor home team companies, sounds good but for whom . This isnt really about competing with manufacturers, that is a competition americans will mostly lose since Multi National cooperations can locate machinery and train local people just about anywhere they can find cheap labor, what the tpp really does is turn the growing reality of 21st century economics into a treaty written for banker, intellectual property attorneys, patent holders and plaintiffs, investors will have a power they had increasingly often to use the laws of their home country as a crow bartow lift the lid off local laws passed by parliaments elected by citizens of a country. It raises foreign capitalists to the same level as your voters. Its often called harmonization but when it comes time for your people to sing their own tune, they may find they have no longer any choice but to go along with the rest of the pacific choir, its a new world, harmony between the United States and canada was difficult enough, harmony with a tiny monarchy like bruni or a communist command economy like vietnams should be fascinating to watch, im ray suarez and thats the inside story. Russia sends missiles into syria from war ships hundreds of kilometers away. President obama apologizes for an air strike destroyed an aid
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