Hello, im marianne mossey and london with a look at the main stories were following. Now, it king of thailand is visited survivors of fuzz days Day Care Center masika by a former policeman who killed 37 people 24 of them children. This was a rab public appearance by king maha jr. A long corner travel to the northeastern long war lungful province to meet with survive visit to hospitals. The attack is horrify thailand. Just now in mourning. The attacker was identified as a former Police Sergeant who also killed his wife and child and then took his own life, changing reports from near the school in long while ample, staring blankly into a future of unfathomable loss. This bery mother still cant believe her 2 year old son. Petra one will never return. I thought it was just an ordinary day. I thought hed go to school is unusual. I had no idea he wouldnt come home. Hope was on hand. Government officials spilling forms and assisting families with the bureaucratic burdens of death. But for many, it was just too much grieving parents in inconsolable pain. Thailands Health Minister focused on one tiny ray of hope, 3 critically injured survivors who were now stable and safe. But hes aware, changes must be made. So this never happens again in the last 2 years were seen to mass killings by a soldier. Now policeman. This is a concern view that these people in positions of authority and power, it is big concern. Suddenly only cancer, but we will surely have to do something that will be hard in a country where the military wheeled so much power. The prime minister, a general himself visited the families on friday afternoon, handing out checks for compensation to the victims, families. With all the noise and commercial and media attention, its easy to forget that at the center of this disaster is this building, the Day Care Center or 22 children were murdered. And the families that they leave behind. And the children laid one last gen coffins from the morgue, arriving at a temple near their homes. As parents waited outside so many caskets, that names and ident says needed to be double checked. And then the final check and the awful confirmation that this is the final good bye tony checking out 0, no one and pu ne, in tiny a u. S. School district to suspended its entire police force 5 months after a shooting that killed more than a 1000 children. 19 students and 2 teachers going after a gunman opened fire rob elementary and of all the texas. The attack in may shocks the countries walking more appeals for gun control. The Police Department has been under investigation for its slow response to the shooting, including long delays and reaching the gunman. While he was hold up in a classroom, heidi joe caster, i was more on what this means for the school districts. Leave them with few good options because now theyre turning to the Texas State Police to fill in that void to keep their students safe. But that Police Department is also under investigation for the way that it handled the School Shooting back in may. This police force that is run by the school district. There were only 4 officers remaining after the chief was fired in august for his role in responding to the shooting and 2 others. Employees are placed on administrative leave. The nobel prize fight has been awarded to a jail by the russian activist and to Rights Groups from ukraine and russia to be seen as a strong condemnation of the war and ukraine, and the president of barrows and russia. Ukraine center for Civil Liberties has been documenting russian war crimes against ukrainian civilians, russian rights group, memorial campaigns on human rights abuses and Political Prisoners and jail that bella russian activists. Alex b elliot sky has campaigned for human rights and Civil Liberties for nearly 40 years now. Well those are the headlines this out. The bottom line with Steve Commons is coming up next on algebra. Oh ok. I am Steve Clements and i have a question. Who is winning the war in ukraine . Lets get to the bottom line. Ah, the ukraine war is no ordinary territorial dispute between neighbors. As a wise man said recently, this is going to shape the rest of the 21st century. If russia loses or doesnt get what it once its going to be a different russia afterward. And if russia wins, its going to be a different europe afterward. The stakes really couldnt be higher. So whats going on in Vladimir Putins mind right now . Western media paint him as a leader forced into a corner facing military set backs and getting more and more frustrated and desperate. How accurate is that . Last week we got the view from washington, and today were getting the view from moscow. Were talking with andre cartoon off the director general of the Russian InternationalAffairs Council. Hes one of the countrys leading experts in Russian Foreign policy and international relations. Andre, its great to be with you and talking with you right now on such a sober issue. Let me just ask you from our perceptions in washington. One of the things i want to get into today is how, what were seeing in washington, were think were seeing and washington may in fact, not align with how things look per moscow. But as weve seen, a new phase in the conflict between russia and ukraine, basically develop now, what is the dashboard from your perspective in, in moscow . Well, i think that it would be fair to say that there have been 2 major developments or recently the 1st of on our was of course are the decision of the president confirmed by the Russian Parliament to incorporate the 4 ukrainian regents into the russian federation. And dar, this 2nd one was. Busy to launch showed, these are partial mobilization, our, which is an indicator that the special mentally operation needs some kind of adjustments that are, it doesnt bring the results that are the russian leadership bar was anticipating to get her. So i think that are these 2 developments, sir . Will have at least 3 major implications are, are for the situation are in this conflict. First of all, i think its now fair to say that any political, a settlement between russia and ukraine is old out, at least for the foreseeable future. Because or you cannot imagine the you kenyan leadership, are willing to agree to a major loss of its territory, especially now when i, ukraine, unfortunately, has this strategic initiative. Oh, it doesnt mean that we will have no negotiations are between the osh and ukraine. Or there might be negotiations on technical law, situational issues. So for instance some arguments or not prisoners exchanger, there might be. Busy are extensions are offered the grain deal because these grain deal expires in the van bra. It has to be extended further. There might be some consultation saw on the safety of these up asia Nuclear Power plant. Are maybe some other agreements are, but i dont think that are the opinion, said di, either a deal willing to get her back her to discuss a political settlement or with doesnt put in. And this is what our, our presence announced. He has already stated quite clearly that i, he is ready to negotiate with russia, but not with food. So thats the 1st or implication of what are has happened. The 2nd implication is that a given the fact that our shirt has announced this partial mobilization, i and her, the odds are that i in a couple of weeks from now, maybe in a month, maybe in 2 months from now theyll be a major reinforcement, sir. I get into the frontline, ah, it would be logical for ukraine to try to i used the window help, but unity that they still have are in order to make a significant advances on the ground as possible. And this is what we already see. A within a couple of days, a ukrainians were a time to push harder bolster in dont boss and in the south are the messages that we get to here are mixed her, of course, of the Russian Military commander claim. So that to most of the ukrainian or counter offensives flailed but this is yet to be seen. But its clear that we will see unfortunately another cycle of escalation and we dont know how long this cycle of escalation will last for. And finally, i think that definitely, ah, you cleanable try to use these decisions of by the kremlin in order to seek more support from the west and are, are the, the with the you can, leadership has already, arden made a beat shot to join nato. I think are, these are pitched, met, or a mixed her own action in the west, but nevertheless, they expect to get more military assistance. So are more intelligent support or more support in training or personnel. I end up more economic support our. Busy so unfortunately, i dont see any light in the end of the tunnel right now. Im afraid of that things are likely to get worse before they can get any better. How much pain and stress is being felt by moscow right now over their decisions on ukraine . Well, its also something that has changed dramatically our because our, our, i think earlier of, for most People Living in most good was almost like a computer game. Ah, in the sense that this conflict was far and far away, of course, ugh, la moskowitz, or of felt some pain. But these are being, was felt primarily by the moscow middle class of people who go to of in a vest him dks or, or a supermarket. A fast food chains are definitely are. Are these out primarily young, urban professionals. I and they felt unhappy about the adjuster minority. Theyre not up bog. Oh, theyre not the bulk of the russian society. I and i are those people who are lever in small town, soar in rural areas. I in various national republic, sir, in the russian federation. They didnt turn field this. They ain significantly are or i, maryland, because they do not consume while foreign made goods, they dont go shopping to lessen type moles. And now of course it is different because these so partial mold mobilization is something that affects all the regions and died can affect to any family in the county. Not surprisingly was so, so many people who tried to leave the country. We dont know how many of them, but clearly a, these are large numbers, may be hundreds of solvents of people trying to escape this mobilization. I, again, i dont think that all of that constitutes an immediate to chill and shot to the russian little chip a. But definitely a of this is something that the leadership should keep in mind. Why planning ah, other actions that might lead to, to further collision . You know, we recently did a show here on the bottom line with nuclear experts. Cory shockey from the American Enterprise institute in john wolfs fall, who is involved with Nuclear Arms Control issues in the obama administration. And they were both rather measured about some of the discussion of a potential use of a Tactical Nuclear warhead device in this battle. But im just sort of interested in not whether the president would make that decision to recall, but whether or not the consequences of that decision are understood by Russian National security elite and what, what rubicon, that would mean that you would be going over . Well this is one of the issues we are really a concern me a lot because i cannot describe whats going on in the kremlin. I do not know. Ah, but are i yar . Observe for that in the Public Discourse on there is. Busy more and more, ah intention or at least to readiness to accept a nuclear war. And they said that, well, you know, nuclear war is bad, but if it is controlled, if were talking about the use of fall tactical, the low yield or Nuclear Weapons, probably this is not the end of the ruled. A under, this is something our week jar is affordable. I consider such discussions and such positions to be are very dangerous. Because of course, our wants to embark on this road. It is extremely difficult to stop, even if it is a low yield, even if it is just a demonstration use of Nuclear Weapons somewhere in the black sea region or in the baltic sea region. But it might lead to an inadvertent escalation. And of course, a, in the end of the day, it might to lead to as to t. Juke Nuclear Exchange or with all the or implications that to these exchange shot might bring are, so are it is dangerous. I think that of course, it is also clear that all Nuclear Powers preserve a degree of ambiguity about their music. Nuclear strategies they do, you do not want to be too explicit about the circumstances under which you might be ready to use Nuclear Weapons. But i think that a, it would be in everybodys interest to just to exclude the Nuclear Dimension from this conflict. He and i, i think that any news, any of Nuclear Weapons in this conflict, oh, good. The detrimental to everybody engaged so that i should be avoided. And i think that everybody should direct confirmed the statement that was made to early this year. I think engendered it by the a prominent members of the United NationsSecurity Council that to you cannot or when in the nuclear war. And thats why you should not start a nuclear war. Ah, one of the interests that i think a lot of us have in the west that are watching this is say, how did we get here . Why did russia or invade ukraine . What was the essentially the driver of this moment . Is there a perception that flirting with ukraine, with regards to nato, helped draw russia into its next vietnam . Whoa, i think the, to the official narrative here is that it is not really a war between russia and a crane. Its a conflict between russia and the west, or are many officials. So in this city, argued that your cleaner is not an independent actor. Ukraine exists on the live support system provided by the west. And the perception is that a ukraine would have been defeated, would have her capitulated long time ago, if not for the western assistance or so. I think the perception here e, under this is the narrative which is presented by the prussian leadership. That of the west term chris been into russian for a very long time that the wester would like her if not to, to completely destroy russia, then to weaken it. To the extent that russia would cease to be an independent blair in international relations. And ukraine is just a tool in the capable hands or western politicians. So lisa, so the narrative which is presented by the russian leadership. Do you still agree with that . And essentially what were seeing now are the aftershocks of many decades later of that soviet empire, that soviet space kilt still coming undone. Yeah, thank you for reminding me of my, your paper. Indeed, i made a point and i, i still believe of that. Ah, defacto, the soviet union, it not to disintegrate, beckon 1991 or because of though the 15th constituent republics declared their independence and started to reckon on their state hoods. But it was a very long and precarious process. And for a long period of time, up of the former bits and pieces of the soviet union, the state together in terms of the economic or transportation for structure or in term saw or far logistics, sir in tom saw oh well oh. Busy the perceptions and mentality are only gradually, we are sore or real disengagement. I iananda. Ah, thats why it was so easy to dissolve the soviet union. Nobody really cared that much about these decisions because so many people thought that nothing would change that up. They would simply, you know, the status of this independence and our life. I would go on a bud gradually. Weve observed that to various countries. So have from a developed a very different to development injectors. And a, if you compare for instance or option you, can you see that the, these 2 parts of the former soviet union, which constituted the core of the soviet union, ah, grande earlier, started divergent from each other on may beer. It was because said they inherited to different to legacies ah, of the soviet union, maybe because they got different leaders. But definitely ukraine of was so move in are in the direction of western liberal or models, not always. So consistently. I was some said becks e and even now you karina are kinda hard to be qualified as a mature democracy. But to russia started moving away from liberal bottles. He and i, weve seen a very clear strategic disengagement between russia and ukraine. Are we sure, of course, contributed a lot of to these conflict . Im very interested andre, and how your friends and colleagues in the International Affairs circuit are viewing the solvency of the u. S. Relationships inside nato. You know, i, you and i have attended some of the same conferences. We see, you know, kind of celebration if you will, of nato again in light of responding after rushes invasion of ukraine. But at the same time, under their breath, those leaders in europe will say, we saw january 6th. Things were different under president trump. We know that america is not as dependable in ally as it once might have been, at least thats their calculation. And im interested in whether that is seen as an opportunity in moscow or a sign of crumbling american influence as compared to a sending american influence. Well, let me said that up or within the Expert Community at least a nobody question. So the factor that we observe law and enhanced a western cohesion that a. Busy of the vesta has managed to unite itself, ah, partially, ah, due to efforts of present biden, about posture, leah, to the decisions meda in europe and also in east asia. And the main discussion that we have here is about whether these son you cohesion, ah, is situational or something we shaw was triggered primarily, a by your Office Actions in ukraine, and something which is limited to russia. Only a something that might and, ah, eva, the a conflict is result or if the conflict of is frozen or are other, we should ha, look at these caucasian as a, a strategic shift. Something that will go beyond russia, something which will affect a western attitudes to china, a, to the global south and something that would last. Busy of were at least a couple of years because a dependent on now rather, these cohesion, ah, the, is tactical or strategic, or we might have found that a different project. It has saw all flaw the global or the development. Ah, and are some said that in 2 years from now, i may be in the United States, you will have another donald trump, i and that will be the into all the west. The unity ah, this would said that i, its not about personalities bugged. The west is concerned, not only about russia, it is concerned about to their eyes of china. So these cohesion i is the, are to stay. So this is the discussions that we have for in moscow. Unfortunately, it is more difficult right now to share all use with our colleagues in europe and the United States about to hook up the after i and to do our best to stay in touch. Im interested in whether the change in leadership that a lot of people in the west become obsessed with that this is all putin. Is it your assessment that that is an accurate analysis . That any one, not any one, but that from the, from the available potentials around russian leadership. That if there were to be someone there, does this system does the scaffolding a round russian Decision Making right now have more to do with russias course than one individual go personnel. It is do matter. I dont think that we should a limit to the, the problems between russia and the wester to personnel that its only, i think, co, unfortunately. Oh, they are more suited them just a issue. So particular leaders and let me just ask you finally, andre is we often discuss the west and russia in this situation in a silo. There are other big powers in the world, china, india, others that have basically straddled the relationships. And in particular, id be interested in your perception of chinas choices right now. Um and how china could play a role either a pro, from russias perspective, anti, or stay somewhere in between. I think that to china takes a very cautious position in these conflict. Her definitely it would like her to support our usher against nita and against the United States in particular because aid has its own problems with the washington d. C. I n darcys natural partner for china in this confrontation. Ah, well are, im not sure that china is ready to support or are she gazed ukraine or because so china has its own problems of separatism. It doesnt like separatism. Ah, it has never recognized her. The changed legal status of the crimean been this to la, i it tar ah. Or confirms its supporter of the territorial integrity and independence of ukraine. Ah, so it is not ready to support our moscow against keith. On top of that. Busy we should not forget that our chinese concerned about secondary sanctions. At least the Chinese Private sector are, is not a d r 2 r r explicitly. Ah, why later the e u m. The eat he the United States, sir . Ah. Busy busy restrictions are in tate i it days are also are in our country a has its own agenda. I. So i think that i, china will continue to be very cautious. Ah, without her, ah, ah, breaking from her shock and die. It will abstain in the United Nations or its will a definitely a supporter, ashley in terms of for buying more russian oil and gas are but right. It is not likely to go against a ukraine in an explicit way. But i just responded to your question and that will be my last pointer. I think that if you put aside are, these are very a said i and very tragic conflict or with ukraine or the real challenge there to roster has a is not a choice between the west and china or its a choice or between the ah, what i would call our cell in self inflicted isolationism. I enter an integration. Realism of the question is not to choose between the east and the west, or between the european union, though and east asia. The question is whether russia is willing to integrate into a broad, International Community or it through us or to stay outside of this community. And this is, i think, a fundamental choice that the country it has to make. Well, thats a very start i and, and well articulated fork in the road. Andre cartoon off director general of the Russian InternationalAffairs Council and moscow. Thank you so much for being with us today and thank you for your candor. Thank you. So whats the bottom line . War is not just about the battlefield. Perceptions of struggle of success loss ambition, psychological warfare play a huge role in the west. Recent ukrainian advances have been taken to mean that russia is losing badly. So moscow might as well recognize as in give up, but is that really how moscow sees it . Another problem its blocking us from piercing through the fog of war is the emphasis on the cult of personality. Were personalizing the issue as if Vladimir Putin is the only problem. Sure putin is in control of his country and government. But even if it were someone else would, the next russian leader have invaded ukraine, much like now justified by claims that it was vital for russias National Security in the west. We tend to mirror image thinking other nations will think and act like we do. But the truth is that putin doesnt see the world, the same as joe biden, and biden doesnt see the world the same as the landscape regardless of how and when this war ends. It wont be pretty because war almost never brings about Clear Cut Solutions to these conflicts of interest. And thats the bottom line. Ah, its time for a memorable holiday with pegasus. Its time for turkey. Set sail for new discoveries. Enjoy. Have new experiences, hit the shops. 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