Ah, im madison and know how the top stories on al jazeera, at least a 125 fans and to Police Officers have been trampled to death at a football match and indonesia, according to local police. Most of the deaths appear to have happened in a crowd stampede off to support us from the losing side invaded the pitch security far tear gas. Indonesia Football Association has opened an investigation and a suspended the lead. Before one week the Russian Defense minister says its withdrawn. His troops from the city of layman in the done, yet screeching to avoid being surrounded by Ukrainian Forces. Payment is strategically important because it served as a logistics and transport hub for moscow connecting Eastern Ukraine to the north. Russia says he made the move to avoid his troops being encircled by Ukrainian Forces. Charles trafford, has more from crematory ukrainian soldiers waved their flag at the entrance to leman brown, the brother all him, and i for them. Footage that al jazeera cannot independently verify, shows dead soldiers and burnt out tanks beside the road. The Ukrainian Military said it surrounded the strategically important town in the partially russian occupied region of the next hours later, the Russian Military said it had been forced to retreat. Thisll dynamo goes across a now there was a high risk of being encircled, so our forces were withdrawn from the position and the man to more advantageous lines, like pro russia media at video believe to show a russian tank retreating north towards camina, a town Russian Forces still control mirrors door, crash them alum, we try to save our strength and control the road between layman and the town carmina. There are reinforcements trying to get in and established positions in order to stop the ukrainians. Krinski hawaiian Ukrainian Forces celebrated pushing Russian Forces out of one of a number of villages in the surrounding area. Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers evacuated moral civilians from the frontline town of buck road that has come under increasing russian shelling in recent weeks. The bottom of her study snobs, fidel, because of the secondary shelling, you see what happened or yesterday of the day before yesterday a projectile fell. There was an older man in the house. They took him away. I was in the kitchen when the explosion happened here. It is impossible to be here. Crane and Authorities Say more than half the 70000 people who lived in bar mood from the surrounding area before the war ready fled. If the Ukrainian Army take full control of li man in the surrounding villages, it will be a huge military and strategic victory for them. Its believed from there. They will try to push both northeast and southeast towards russian. Occupied areas of luke guns. Kinetic the russians say this retreat was strategic before give and its nato partners. It will be seen as a humiliating defeat. Cha, Stratford Al Jazeera crematory russian authorities are detained, the director of ukraines Operation Nuclear power plant, a hot motion. Morisha says he was blindfolded and detained just hours after moscow illegally annexed for ukrainian regions, including sapir, aisha. Russia seized europes Largest Nuclear plant in march, but ukrainian staff are still working there. The Danish Energy agents, he says, one of 2 ruptured Gas Pipelines in the baltic. C appears to have stopped leaking. Agency set on twitter that had been informed the north stream to pipeline, which ones from russia to germany appears to have stabilized. The state of emergencies been declared in burkina faso the day after the country, 2nd military coup in 8 months. And saturday qu, support has set fire to the French Embassy in the capitol. They accused the French Military of sheltering us to president. Paula read them in which france denies. Thousands of people are protested across the u. K. Demanding action to tackle the countrys cost of living crisis. The demonstrations have come on the day big rises in Energy Prices came into effect. The enough is enough campaign is calling on the government to improve pay slash energy bills and make housing more affordable. And those are the headlines. The news is going to continue here on our dcea after the bottom line. Good by ah. Hi, im Steve Clemens and i have a question. As russia finds itself backed into a corner in ukraine, could this war go nuclear, lets get to the bottom line. Ah, it started 7 months ago and theres no end in sight. The Ukrainian Military has made some major advances, but russia still controls 20 percent of the country. And theres nothing to suggest that this war is winding down. The Ukrainian Military is backed up by western weapons and western intelligence gathering, which tells them where the russian soldiers are and where ammunition is being stored. President joe biden has asked congress to provide a new package of about 12000000000. 00 of aid to ukraine on top of the nearly 50000000000. 00 sent there in the past year. And moscow is doubling down to hundreds of thousands of military reserves are being called up. Now, referendums are being held in the ukranian territories, that russia controls asking folks whether theyd prefer to belong to ukraine, order. Russia. And put recently said something really remarkable. He said hes not bluffing when he threatened the quote, make use of all weapon systems available and you know what that means . He is talking about Nuclear Weapons too. So are things taking a turn for the worse and could this war go nuclear . Today were talking with cory shockey director, a foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise institute, who served this director for Defense Strategy and the National Security council under president george w bush. Shes also author of america versus the west. Can the liberal world order be preserved, and john wolf stall, former adviser to president brock obama and now a Senior Advisor to the global 0 initiative, which works on the elimination of Nuclear Weapons. He blogs at the sub stack site. Boom boom, boom, read it. Its very interesting, let me just ask you both, and im going to start with you, corey, where has the notion that we need to know about Nuclear Weapons and how to respond to them. Gone structurally. In our defense analysis in our defense plants. Well, theres certainly still a cod tray as people who care ad desperately and work carefully on the issue that james martin instituted in monterey that m i t Political Science to var read write stratcom, all sorts of people. But we have had the good fortune for the last 30 years to not have to care about this problem and the return of Nuclear Menace as russia loses its war and ukraine and the germanic expansion at chinas Nuclear Weapons program. Emergence of programs in iran and north korea. Our cause seeing a lot of people who study National Security to focus their attention back on this field. Well john, you have written a piece to this point called deterring, deterring pollutants. Nuclear threats in your boom boom boom ah, sup, stack websites, fascinating piece. And you sort of reveal that there had been simulations in thinking about this when you served in the obama administration. So Vladimir Putin is out there right now. Looks to a lot of folks like hes in a bit of a corner, taking some desperate actions inside ukraine, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of new forces to be deployed to ukraine, but also threatening potential use of Nuclear Weapons. Whats your take on how serious Latimer Putin is . Well, we dont, 1st of all, it is very dangerous. A disaster people have ukraine and as the people of europe who have been disrupted by it. But the reality is you cant put a percentage on risk. But we know the Vladimir Putin has Nuclear Weapons. We know that hes willing to use force to achieve his goals and hes fully capable of launching Nuclear Weapons. And so the risk is not 0. And therefore we have to take it seriously. Fortunately, inside any administration, there are professionals who work these issues, both in the military and in the civilian side that think through. What are the threats . Is the United States in secure our, our safe and secure . And more importantly, how do we deter enemies from doing things that we dont want them to do . We can deter them by denying them the benefits they might seek to achieve or by punishing them to such an extent that they never benefit from their attacks. Obviously what wed like to do is be so effective, it determined that they never even think about using Nuclear Weapons, but putting already cross that threshold. And now were very much in the business has been seen by President Biden. And secretary state tony, blinking, making very clear publicly that theyve communicated to russia, that any use of Nuclear Weapons would never succeed, that they would be punished to an extent that would never make the attack worthwhile. And they shouldnt even think about it. Korea would ask you, what can the west do credibly, and do you feel like were handling this defining moment for the solvency of American Power for nato, for the western alliance . Is, are we doing well at this moment . I think were doing reasonably well. I agree with john, i know that it matters that the white house and other parts of the government have made clear that we are talking to the russians and making concrete consequences clear. Should russia choose to use a Nuclear Weapon against the people of ukraine, where i think they could do better . Is to be even more explicit about what the consequences of russias actions would be. Should they make that fateful policy choice . It sounded to me and the coverage of the Biden Administrations talks with the russians, that the, as the president said, you know, were, were talking about in general, were not talking about specific concrete responses. I personally think, given how broad the gap is between this strategy of the Biden Administration and its willingness and ability to carry out its strategy that we need to be more explicit. We should be telling the russians that our intelligence has been very good in this war. So far, we are dedicating intelligence assets to determining whether the russians are moving weapons into operational positions. And if they are, we will make that intelligence public. So russia has to bear consequences, not just with the United States and ukraine, but other countries. Second thing we should be doing is telling the russians that if we see them moving to use a Nuclear Weapon in ukraine, we will interdicted if we have the ability to do so, ah, to take that tool out of their hands. 3rd thing, if we fail to interdict their use, that we will, sans american and other nato forces to ukraine, to help and mealy rate the consequences of it. So am so effects, consequence management. But we will also join the, were on the side of ukraine. And because we need to make sure the russians understand that the use of this weapon wont change the outcome of the war, it will simply change the cost of the war. And it will dramatically raise the cost to them. And the 4th thing we should be telling them is that we will hunt down and bring to justice every single ration involved in the policy decision or the execution of such an order. So you have just help define something. Cory shockey that i was asking in a tweet when i heard by the National Security advisor Jake Sullivan say the results of any action i have to ask myself in when joe biden and Jake Sullivan are talking about their concern of nuclear and chemical weapons. There must be, some intelligence is forcing them to, you know, express those concerns. And i ass, please define catastrophic. So you begun to do that, you know, begun to look at. But what im hearing you say is really something that sounds a lot like a next world war. Am i am i wrong, john . But i dont think youre wrong and, and i like to take the point to or the opportunity to agree with almost everything. Corey just said, what have you not agree with . So i agree with most of the points, but i dont agree about the idea that we should be ready to interdict and preempt nuclear used by russia. And i think why not, because one human beings make mistakes and we misinterpret moves. That could be a prelude to an attack, which are actually something else. We have to acknowledge that our delegates is not always perfect, and thats been demonstrated multiple times in the past. But i think thats very much on the minds of President Biden and other leaders, which is we want to do everything we can to make Vladimir Putins life difficult without turning this into world war 3. If putin chooses across the Nuclear Threshold, he could do so without moving troops or without moving missiles around. He has Nuclear Weapons deployed on submarines deployed on in silos that could be launch without any notice in any preparation. So we cant simply bomb our Nuclear Problem away with pollutant. Well, we can say to him, and i agree with cory on us, that if he were to use a Nuclear Weapon, we should make it clear that hes now in a war with United States and all of nato, and that we will hold everybody, including him directly and personally responsible, it would be the end, not only of russias position of power in the world, but of his rule in russia, no matter how long it takes. And i think the United States is very credible on that, whether it is or some of been lawton, or other people that have challenge the United States at a strategic level. But we have to be very careful and i think this goes in court. I may disagree on this, in terms of what assistance we are prepared to provide ukraine. We should do everything we can to make sure ukraine survives that they can defeat russian aggression and they re, can reclaim ukrainian territory. And we have to do that without creating a dynamic where russia itself will feel directly threatened by ukraine or the United States. So that we can bring this war to a conclusion without Russian Troops on ukrainian territory. And that is a very, very small Landing Strip that the president and others are trying to get into. And we have to be cautious not to overreach in terms of our capabilities or the consequence. Let me ask you both where you think this conflict is going. Is there a negotiated and are both sides kind of, are they kind of negotiating with each other . The russians are saying, hey, heres what we could do. The landscape is out there saying well never give up an inch of land. Well go forever. Its just sort of interesting that when you begin looking into the abyss of truly horrific Global Exchange that could expand far further. Does the world have to acquiesce to some butchering up of ukraine as a way to get to this corey . You know, where i disagree with john just a minute ago and with you, steve . Is that it is, it does not deter adversaries to project. All of our fears am on to the public record. Right. President biden is right to worry about world war 3. Hes right to as think we need to. I have policies that minimize the effects, but to tell your adversary repeatedly, all you are afraid of isnt deterrence, right . Russia is losing of war to ukraine. Its losing a war with conventional forces to ukraine. It looks like the russians begin to try and make Nuclear Threats and threats of, ah, you know, environmental terrorism attacking their own nord stream pipelines. Um and so yes, this is scary. Yes, it is dangerous. That is the nature of warfare. And yet we should not lose perspective that we are the strong ones in this equation, not the weak ones. And we should be projecting our strength into the conversation. Not all of our anxieties of what were afraid might happen, because to do that encourages russia to believe that they can set the conditions of the end of the war. They are losing, that they can use nuclear and other threats to effect american behavior. Thats just not good deterrent strategy. I find your perspective really fascinating, corey, and i think a very important contribution here. Nonetheless, the russians are working to annex these large portions of territory. Just sort of begs the question of, as you look at, i mean, this looks like a war thats not going to wind down anytime soon. And so maybe would be naive even ask the question of how we get to that solution. But right now, clearly as a result of what corey, you see, you see the russians are losing this war, doing steps that are potentially very d, stabilizing inside moscow. With the mobilization of these men, we just saw pictures of a 10 mile long line of folks trying to get out of the country. So it is now come home to moscow, the consequences of this. And so im interested just just very quickly in as you begin looking at it, maybe we dont translate and transmit our fears. But when you come to the broader question of what this nato and the transit Atlantic Alliance need to achieve, percent, where does this go by way of russia . Is it, is it that complete emasculation in defeat of russia . Or is there some middle ground . So thats up to russia. I was in key a couple of weeks ago, and president zelinski captured it perfectly. He said that there are people trying to persuade him to make concessions to russia, to bring the war to an end. What ukraine is instead, trying to do is set the conditions for bringing the war to an end. You know, its popular to say military force cant solve this problem. Military force is solving this problem, and russia can lose in a bunch of different ways. It can enter into negotiations now with the ukrainians. It can enter into negotiations once they lose crimea. There are lots of different off ramps, but we shouldnt be either ourselves or pushing ukraine to make concessions that russias invasion of ukraine and the catastrophic performance of russian. The terry have imposed upon russia itself as the great i frank miller, he who works a lot on Nuclear Strategy is fond of saying that the line judge doesnt disqualify a swimmer. The swimmer disqualifies the swimmer. Russia has set the conditions for the outcome of this war. By invading ukraine and by having a catastrophically bad military strategy that they cant even execute. John, i know you wanted to jump it. Yeah. Because i agree with corey. I mean, i dont think the United States should be pushing ukraine at all to make concessions. I think the bravery shown by the ukrainian people, the creativity of their military, i think, does change the landscape in europe. And quite frankly, i think a lot of people are going to be asking when this war does. And why dont we bring ukraine into nato . Because they know better than anybody how to hold risks and threats like russia at bay. I think the question is, what is the end goal for ukraine . Are they going to be satisfied with repelling russia from the territory theyve occupied since february . Will they say now that weve liberated those areas, we now want to go and liberate the crimea, and recognize that even if that is a legitimate right of ukraine to do. And even if the United States wants to support that, that does create new challenges and risks of escalation for potent. I think court, i would agree we would like to be gone. Wed prefer an internal coup. We prefer to him to be defeated. We want to see ukraine victorious on the battlefield. And so far right now thats working. The United States, however, to make that possible, needs to deter from escalating this crisis. And that is a very difficult challenge. Who can use Nuclear Weapons . Hes clearly threatening it to try to influence it, influence us, and thats just a reality. Nuclear weapons do influence foreign leaders. Wed be naive to suggest otherwise. But i dont think that means were projecting weakness. I think the president has said very clearly of latimer potent, dont even think about it. And by demonstrating our resolve as an alliance to support ukraine and if necessary to respond to the use of Nuclear Weapons, i think we are projecting strength. I think the real question is, where does the line get drawn . And the reality is that neither pollutant nor President Biden, nor anybody on this interview really knows where that lines going to be drawn. We have to play it day by day, john, you put something in your article, which i had not thought about is that bladder, mere putin could decide as a, as a demonstration of resolve to deploy a Nuclear Weapon in the air. And not use it for by tactical battlefield use to just send a signal that he was willing to do that. And that would be historic that might create an electromagnetic pulse. It might have consequences. What kind of response this the world offer to that and, and i guess the other thing i feel so strongly, ive learned this from cory shockey from listening for so long. These are not siloed issues from others. The North Koreans are watching. The iranians are watching lots of pakistan and india are watching lots of other worlds that are at Nuclear Threshold or Nuclear Capable nations are watching what transpires in these moments and a gets it just, it just haunts me. That the action while we may not want to escalate the horror, you could create a permission slip in the future. And im wondering how do you not do that and how do you respond to Something Like the scenario i sort of, ill be honest, i thought that the way that folks thought about your response was rather weak. And if i were North Koreans, i would take heart, frankly, in what you shared. So it looks like we had to be careful about not making decisions now based on what it might mean for precedence in the future, right. Job number one is defeating Vladimir Putin in ukraine. My personal view is that if the letter report and where to use a demonstration strike over the black sea, it would be sign not of resolve but of desperation. And it would show, as korea said that he is losing the war conventionally, i think the least effective thing we could do would be to respond to a demonstration strike with a Nuclear Weapon demonstration of our own. Because we are winning the war. Ukraine is winning the war. We dont want to feel that he can expand to the Nuclear Battle space because why, frankly, when Nuclear States go off against each other, nobody wins. Id rather win the war and beat him conventionally. I would rather fight a nuclear chest, beating competition korea. Id love to get your thoughts on that as well. But i also want to ask you, as we get close to wrapping this conversation, which is so fascinating up is to what degree you worry about ukraine fatigue. And not only you treat ukraine fatigue at home here in the United States where the supplemental, so the 12000000000. 00, which were debating to give ukrainians. People began saying, hey, we need that for other purposes. But also theres that adage, winter is coming and a lot of european governments are going to be under pressure with the high price of oil and gas and the fact that some supplies are going to be cut off for them. Yeah, so i think its right to worry about western fatigue of her ukraine, but joyfully that is not where the American Public or European Publics are experiencing. Theres a Pew Paul Jess out a couple of days ago that shows support for ukraine increasing as time goes on in the west, not decreasing. And i think germany is an interesting example in, at the overwhelming majority of Even Green Party pacifists, and germany favor arming and supporting ukraine. And they are pushing the German Government to a more assertive position. And i think you see the same dynamic in the United States over time. So thats great. The answer to your question about what is the right response to a nuclear threat. The right response is to diminish the value of nuclear possession and Nuclear Threats by telling an adversary that the kind of weapon they use will make no difference to the outcome of the war. That we remain committed to winning the war. Irrespective of what kind of weapons they years and it, we, well hi, dana and bring to justice. Anybody responsible for the decision or the execution of an order to use a Nuclear Weapon in any aspect, demonstrative or otherwise. Corey, before i leave it you, you have said that now a couple of times very compellingly. And honestly and maybe ive missed this. I havent heard Jake Sullivan said, say that i havent heard our secretary of state tony blanket that have not heard the president United States say were going to hunt down and hold accountable. Any one involved in that long line of Decision Makers to that were involved with the use of that and basically saying this would be a horrific crime against humanity and hold them to account. Why do you think we havent heard those words, or at least i havent heard those words . Well, i very much hope they are saying those words privately, and i very much hope they will soon say them publicly. John, what do you think about this challenge of fatigue . Well, i worry about fatigue, not because the American Public or the European Public are going to get tired. I think coreys exactly right. That right now, particularly as the war is going well or better for Ukraine Support is very strong. I do worry about political instability and United States. I worry about political instability in europe. Thats something that i think joe biden and the United States are very aware of. But i think thats why we need to keep making the case that this is not just about ukraine. Is about protecting the International GlobalSecurity Order that has benefited the United States in europe more than anybody else. But i do also agree with corey that the message needs to be clear about accountability. Im very confident that message has been really privately up and down the military chain of command in russia. When i was in government, that was part of the plans that we had in place to signal and message. We can debate whether those are needed publicly or not. I think let me put and through minister show i go general grossey all the way down through the 12 gm. You understand that very well. And i think they know the United States is prepared and capable of carrying it out. Will fascinating discussion. Both of you. I think this is, you know, thinking the unthinkable is what we sometimes need to do and National Security issues. I want to thank corey shockey, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise institute, and john wolfs fall Senior Advisor at the global 0 initiative. Thanks so much for being with us today. Thank you. To pleasure. So whats the bottom line . The 1st and last time a nuclear bomb was used in war with 77 years ago by the United States against japan. Since then, there have been instances when a Nuclear Exchange almost happened. But is this going to be one of them to find out, we have to take a closer look at russias leadership. President Vladimir Putin sees himself as the one person who can make russia great. Again, according to his world view, the soviet union and russia suffered from decades of humiliation. And now its time for payback, and that makes him driven and dangerous. No one knows if hell decide to use a tactical nuke in this war with ukraine, but the u. S. And his allies have to figure out how to react, by the way, there is no polite way to respond to the use of Nuclear Weapon. And there are consequences for not responding and kind, and that would be the day when were damned if we do and damned if we dont. And thats the bottom line. Ah, in these Turbulent Times up front returns for a new season. Join me, mark them on hill as we take on the big issues from the state of democracy around the world to the struggles faced by the under represented. We will challenge the conventional wisdom upfront one out 0. In 1996, a group of young people, new to no way to describe the immigration experiences. I dont know what i do if they sent me back to say you got 25 years on. Ill just the real world asks how new each and they now feel about. Well, you have to accept that you might never be seen as norwegian blood didnt belong than you who they now no waste. Lauren is the town on al jazeera ah, holding the powerful to account. As we examined the u. S. Seats ro in the world on al jazeera, with