ah, let's take you through some of the headlines here now, just now. authorities in ukraine say a russian attack is targeting several regions, including the capital, key of air raid sirens have sounded across the country as the missiles come in, child strengthen has moved from here. this morning would have been around for 5 a. m, i suppose they were very loud. sirens be heard across the capital and it's only really in the last half an hour ago that we've started to hear sounds like a heavy barrage. there were large explosions in an area to my right, i suppose about 10 minutes ago. it's very difficult to tell whether these are intersected, either missiles, all these so called kamikaze drones or whether in fact, one was a strike. there was one exceptionally large explosion which would suggest that that had, had not been intercept to police in cambodia. say several people have died and dozens are injured after a hotel fire broke out on the ground floor of the grand diamond hotel and casino employ. pay near the tie border and spread rapidly. some of the victims have been taken to hospital and thailand. the us is joined a growing list of countries imposing restrictions on travelers from beijing staging . ease is kind of iris policies. as of january, the 5th, all passengers coming from china, even via a 3rd country, will have to produce a negative covey 19 test. similar measures have been announced in italy, taiwan, india, malaysia, and japan. american house officials are concerned aging isn't sharing dancer as possible evolving strains. serbs have been protesting in northern cause have agreed to remove road barricade starting on thursday. people have been demonstrating for almost 3 weeks. officer, a former police officer, was detained. social media platform, twitter itself for the major outage, thousands of users reported not being able to access their accounts. the platform has been at the forefront of control overseas. since spivey in that long mosque took over earlier this year. it's inside story. now stay with us. on counting the task, what can we expect in 20? 23 is a global recession, inevitable. china newfound did 0. call the policy where the world's 2nd largest economy bounce back and cabinet times the head for latin america and african countries to find out why. counting the cost on al jazeera, 3 years ago, and guido declared himself venezuela's leader instead of president nicholas missouri. now the opposition has voted to remove the interim government, led by the us back politician. madura remains firmly empower despite years of sanctions and economic growth. so what's next? venezuela? this isn't a story. ah, [000:00:00;00] with hello, welcome to the program. i'm in bronco and it holds the world's largest all reserves . yet venezuela's economy remains in deep difficulty. after years of western sanctions, president nicholas madura, his state in power would support from russia, cuba, china, turkey and iran, backed by the west. one glow declared himself president 3 years ago, but he's on the way out. that's after the opposition he proclaimed to lead this week rejected his ladyship and entering government. in a few moments we'll be looking in more detail with our guests on how venezuela got where is and where it goes next. but this 1st report from alice under amputee on the economic difficulties is people face at the inner garcia, opened her natural, cosmetic shop 4 months ago in caracas, spreading on venezuela's mother it economic recovery. and despite many hurdles, she says things have gone well so far on economy. agatha nice young, it's an economy and revision that's just starting to grow. again, there is a feeling of normality for commerce and many shopping centers have started operating again. l. call me back like the government's decision to relax. price controls and allow trading in us dollars has given some businesses and president nicholas, my daughter, a 2nd wind in a country were real gross domestic product as shrunk by almost 80 percent in a decade dollars. they're everywhere. these days, prices in stores, restaurants, and even food carts are listed in dollars. this is partly stabilized prices and brought a veneer of better economic times. so let people go together with more favorable international geo politics. this is allowed madura to venture outside the country, shaking hands with leaders who were trying to house them until a few months ago and confounding opponents earlier. why dor them in the united states and other democracies recognized as legitimate president, after calling my daughter's 2018 re election? a sham spends most of his days in a spartan office, photos on the wall show him at the height of his efforts to topple madura and although opposition parties are now seeking to end this mandate, he remains undeterred. they don't wanna do out a thought. oh, now like somebody since the only that we need to bring this to a presidential election and we need to strengthen the opposition to facilitate talk to mexico. but let me be clear, it's not because the opposition is divided, that madura keeps the power he keeps you sipping power because this is a dictatorship looters regime as agreed interior to resume negotiations with the opposition in mexico and arrange free and fair presidential elections in 2003 to 4 in exchange for ease, you are thank jones and the oil sector. mother was hoping the economy will continue improving enough to give him a chance to win the next presidential elections out. right. especially if the opposition remains as divided as it is right now. that economy say the improvements have done little for the majority of venezuelans. good, my little sad thing. all you elemental madura is trying to credit himself for the increasing the comic activity, but all they've done is stop causing happ inflation to lift things, then it will create some peace among the middle and upper class. but this doesn't mean better conditions for those who go to public hospital or need public services . but for now, avoiding hyperinflation might be enough to offer some opportunities to businesses. like at the anna's and the government more time to maneuver allison, the and pierre, the al jazeera carrack, us willing to reduce our gas shortly. but 1st, let's take a look at how venezuela reached this point. in 2019 nicholas dora was sworn in for a 2nd term as president. but the opposition had boycotted the 2018 elections saying though rigged opposition leader one go i don't, had headed the national assembly sincerely elections and declared himself intern president the u. s. lead around 60 western and latin american countries in recognizing him as leader with some allowing him to input and passengers. maduro bard the u. s. humanitarian aid and cut diplomatic ties. the trump administration reply to crippling sanctions, including on vital oil exports up to 5000000 people with forced to leave when his while of western allies gave guido control of the countries foreign assets domestic support for him with it after he failed to take power. most he, you countries back to guido, but dropped their recognition of him as president last year. but the u. s. continues to recognize him. ah, let's bring it, i guess, from crackers to me for us. he's the managing director of global sovereign advisory, and was previously deputy foreign minister adviser to president hugo chavez in chief of stuff to president nicholas meadow or in venice anointment. she's the founder and ceo of asymmetrical political risk firm. she's also the former official represent sit for one guy in the united kingdom and ireland and also from crackers, full guns, and he's a senior analyst and the in special crisis group and a consultant on latin america. welcome tool. let's begin in new york with you, vanessa. you guys failed, it's time to back and you'll surely. well, i think, you know, that was a joke about the interim government that it's not intra, nor does it cover. so i think that unfortunately gained a lot of current on record events since my resignation in 2020 that if this was not going to achieve its objectives, that is why you get to get out of my daughter versus by the dialectic and do something to benefit people, you know, the long suffering, dennis, mind people. so yeah, i think i'm not sure about whether it's backing a new horse or finding a way to basically ease that suffering to bring infrastructure development to brain oper, humanitarian, how. and not just in the ways of handouts, but things that are really considered basic to human development and human rights. and i think that that's where we need to go. now it's time to end the dialectic and time to, to find a solution for people in caracas. it to me for us. i mean, what do you think of that? it's time to stop this side show effectively. yes, absolutely. i mean, we are so called intern government was a part of the regime change policy that was good back in the days by the trumpet, ministration, and very clearly that policy fail for various reasons. it is, it is time now to learn by recognizing that intern government by the united states in the sense that it creates the existence, you know, the formal existence even if it has no impact in that. it creates a lot of problems regarding, for instance, the legal recognition of the, of it isn't government in the united states, the access to minnesota or an assets and even, you know, the turnaround of an economy engagement with, you know, with the global economy, financial institutions that a range of problems are created by the existence of this now irrelevant, so called interim government sell guns and also in caracas, one of the key players here is the united states. it sticking to its guns, it's backing into in government, continues to recognize of water. what is the point of that now? there is no point. i mean, i think the by the administration has long wanted to move beyond this policy, which of course you inherited from, from not only in terms of recognizing why though, as the president of and as well, but also the whole package of sanctions. the trumpet imposed in the overall so called maximum maximum pressure policy. i think this, you know, this move will make things slightly easier in the short term. it's clearly a massive victory for president, a lot of people, even even people on the moderate side internationally and domestically here as well as the opposition have been reluctant to give to that. that price, if you like, that benefit, without any significant concessions on his side. but i think that, you know, that stems from, you know, an idea that somehow the so called in sure government is an asset to the opposition . whereas in fact has been lost to go, not only and not only in terms of the overall strategy, but also in terms of you know, what, what the relationship between the opposition leadership and the venezuela public is . i think it is distance, the opposition leadership from the real concerns of that as well. and also cause the split 1st let's, if you like, within the opposition itself. vanessa. these are 2 very strong personalities. here . they are people with significant support. is there a compromise to be found that leads venezuela out of this crisis? will significant support? i'm not sure. i agree with that statement. first of all, i wanted to reinforce and agree with some things that so gunston sat and to me a sad and back out. a bit of nuance. i think 1st of all, i don't think nicolas, my little or one by they'll really have that much support. there are analyses that by the may not make it out of the primers. that's not me to say that's to be determined by the facts as we approach 2024 election. so, you know, the cooling is bad for both sides. i wouldn't say really either side, it's a little bit unclear who would emerge as a strong leader or option really on either side. obviously, nicolai's mother would stay as a leader on for the regime. but what, what is interesting about what has happened with the recognition and what happened with our assets? everything going forward, as you know, it was instrumental in the defense of the gold of the summer and gold in the bank of england and gave not no fewer than 19 witness statements in that case. so i know, well what has happened is i think a lot of the foreign asset, even if the why those should we say is de recognized officially by its own people and the international gene. you end up with any situation. remember that those assets are frozen because of the legitimacy, the motivation pending for your fair elections. so there is a scenario where that might all just remain frozen until the elections in 2024. that promise does not go away. i do agree that it has separated with the transfer and our position leadership from the people who are just tied up with politics and wants to get on with the solution to their lives. and i think about what i want to do. one of the things is, as you try to move forward and try to find a solution to the types of things that we have been talking about about infrastructure development. and perhaps finding ways to either use some of those are a debt, which i'm involved in a couple of projects on this. so i'm advising on whether to use some of the foreign debt or foreign assets that have been cleared. it could be clear in order to use that, or some of these projects that we're about to use to something of the people and perhaps cool moodle away from the russian influence and more towards the west. now the thing is to do that, you have to find a way that you can't be entirely isolated from the international financial community. because that's just say, even if you securitized or collateralized some of those investments, you know, what are you going to do? go to court in venezuela, you know, there is a default, so you need to find a car where even when you try to find the solution there, there that there is a way that you can still force internationally because it's a complete financially isolated banks like north korea or something doesn't really, doesn't provide investors or with any, any recourse, the type that you would need. so i think that the solution would have to be something, something along those lines and that, and then it's a real complexity to find that part of, i mean we're looking at then a stalemate. oh wait. we're looking at least 118 months away before the next election optimistically. so we're looking at a stalemate in venezuela politics. the can't do any of the things that vanessa may be suggesting. well, i don't think so, but isn't willing to have, have been moving since at least 2019 1st. and the most of the opposition is that it has moved away from, you know, the product of a so called intern government has engaged in internal and a process of internal negotiation with the small, you know, this, the name we give to the political movement around president and you know, in a very challenging and difficult but, but you know, ongoing process, the opposition and the government, the minute focused on discussing, which is, which is already a progress from the situation in 2019 when you know phrases like all options are on the table pronounced by the government united states, meaning a military threat against men as well. and government and venezuela in general was pronounced. the situation politically has, has definitely improved. of course, there need to be, you know, concrete concessions on. and when i say both sides a is, the opposition is requesting from the government political concessions and guarantees in order to achieve free and fair elections. and the government on the other side is addressing a message that is more addressed to lee to the u. s. government than opposition saying that in order to achieve free and fair elections also for debbie's more needs to be free and fair elections are all been, as well as should not be subject to unilateral un sanctions. which is you know, what vanessa was referring to today. the venezuelan government is under us sanctions. it means it doesn't have access to the financial system. it doesn't have access to bank accounts. you have to make it very concrete. and it's an oil producing country where the oil and national oil company cannot act legally and mean from the perspective of the us legal system. but which is, you know, by the fact that the u. s. a has a great international influence. it cannot engage even in training, and it's what i cannot explored officially. it's all have. so the impact of the vendors on an economy is the mass. and therefore the government is claiming that free and fair elections need to be. also, sanctions free or sanctions release election. so we are dealing with that with ad timetable. but as you were mentioning, that is dependent not only on the progress internally, but also on the progress of negotiate on the progress on the international arena. and depending on what concessions the, the biden administration that has started, a process of engagement in missouri is willing to make or so again. so let's talk about the international curious, hey, i mean, on the one side, you've got cuba, china, turkey, iran and russia. backing missouri and then you have the west effectively and the you at some point is probably a little bit less i right now. any of these countries or any of these roles of these, the split between the international community as any of that been useful for venezuela? no, i mean, i think the polarization that you refer to which, you know, the international polarization obviously reflects the domestic reservation. and this is because, you know, from originally being and domestic vendors, well, in crisis, it's extended into the region with massive migration, unprecedented refugee crisis. 7000000 venezuelans estimated to let the country out of the nation around 30000000. that's creating enormous pressures within the region . lots of other aspects of the crisis, obviously a fact that as well as neighbors and, and then now it's the global geo political crisis as well, in the sense that, you know, when, when a, you know, us russia in china, if they ever do sit around the table, you know, venezuela is, is, is on the agenda may not be at the top suddenly, but it's, but it's item that this is not, this is not useful. but that doesn't mean of course is to me we're saying is the, you know, the us and its allies and my daughter's eyes in the form of the russians, the chinese radians and so on, that have a role in resolving this. and the focus, of course, has to be on the recently received in mexico city beach, following between number due to government multiple the unit for the least a portion of the opposition that's in, that's a negotiation with the government that has to be back solidly backed by the international community, but also those folks have to be connected in some way to the vendors want to people and civil society at the moment they operating almost in a vacuum. and again, this is to mention the reality of those talks is that they are in essence the negotiation between correctness in washington, in which the opposition is kind of an instrument, but it isn't really doesn't really have an awful lot to put on the table. so there needs to be a way in which those tools will decide that those tools is connected to what meant as well as on the ground here. that will give our civil society really wants through consultation mechanisms which are in the memorandum of understanding of which there's tools to set up a vanessa that's a pretty pessimistic assessment of the international community's role. is there any, any optimism here when it comes to the international community? i mean, optimism. why mean i think that there's plenty, i just think that the sort of geopolitical test games, you know, we'll, we'll continue to pay. i mean, there are other options for us on demand as well that we're a key and key things including in helping europe get through the ukranian war. i mean, there are, there are the warranty about us. why has really been under explored, and it's not just about the oil. there are tremendous other resources, including a tremendous not got more of a cutoff, actually that, that are strategically important minerals and also, you know, it's, it's a graphic importance in time. so for international shipping lanes and all of that, so i think that there's, there's not 2 things that you know can can be done, but it's one that actually weren't done because of the terrible cryptography and corruption and mismanagement really under the, under the under chinese small now granted, i've always said that there was actually mismanagement and corruption prior to tell me. so that's not really new to that. but it really grew exponentially. and i agree that i, i agree, and i disagree with some things that so constance, and for instance, i think negotiates is, in mexico. are sort of somewhat irrelevant because i, i do agree with that that they are being basically a proxy between washington and the opposition. the problem with the opposition. one of the many reasons why reside, they didn't really seem to have, you know, a, what do they want? i and other various why ask for, you know, you guys sitting down at the table in mexico. what is your list of demands on that one? and since then, i'm supposed to be represented by you. what is your list of demands? can you please tell us? and they can't, i know what reasonable wants, but i don't know what the opposition wants, and that's not, you know, as you know, from political negotiations anywhere in the world where it's middle east, peace, or northern ireland. if you know what the list of demands is, you're in series, you're in serious trouble. so it's complicated. it's very complicated. but to where . busy one of the things it seems you coming out here right now is the idea that whoever controls the foreign assets is going to be the de facto leader of venezuela is, is that crucial for the future? what, what, what is crucial for the future is for been as well again, an oil based economy to turn around it all sector oil and gas is that is the mention by the way, because it is home to massive on reserves of gas that could be of use, especially as you mentioned to your so what, what is, what is really the essence is to land the been is within society to basically take care of its own development, which is at the moment. for fortunately, the economic situation of the country has improved since 2021, but as an economy is growing again, but that is mostly the fact of internal reforms that were passed by the government and you were mentioning to whoever i mean, who runs the country there is absolutely no doubt that it is the government sitting can act as it is decided by nicholas. the access to foreign asset is at the same time, symbolic, something that you know that pertains to the sovereignty of the country. regardless of the opinion, one could have on, on how the country's rule is that those belong to the state of venezuela. so it should be under the control of an government. and again, its own economy has started to grow. so in terms of where we owe money, i'm sorry we are running out of it. i do want to come very quickly to fill guns and was, will fill the pain, the picture that's been painted. it was that this could have been a very simple domestic political dispute, but it was made worse by international involvement. no, i wouldn't put it that way. i mean, i think this is a very complex domestic dispute, which essentially, you know, has to do with the dismantling of that as well. and institutions. the fact that the, you know, the opposition is, has a certain space within which to operate with cannot challenge. chevy is more for national power, and so on is that remains the case then, you know, the log jam will continue the impulse of mexico. and i understand, well, when i was saying about, you know, the mexico is kind of irrelevant. but mexico is the place at which, you know, in which agreements that have to do, obviously not just with the opposition, but the u. s. as well as well and government these, these agreements can be ratified and it's a process more than they don't sit down in mexico and discuss these things and discuss those where it's the process that i'm referring to that negotiating process which ought to work according to the plan of the bike administration reciprocally. so the concessions on of a neuro cider match with sanctions relief primarily from the u. s. that will to work, but it needs to be started by a government here in correct. that is really actually to contemplate down the i did some points losing power, which currently doesn't seem to be willing to do. i want to thank all our guests at him add up, harass i, vanessa norman, and phil guns and own a to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website out there a dot com. i'm further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook, dot com forward slash ha inside story, and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a j inside story. for me am ron khan and the whole team head, i don't know. ah, western libya is home to luby as berber people, the embassy scattered across in a few so mountains, our old amazonian cities like this one. and then he kinda started in one of the images are original inhabitants of libya. here in digital city, there's evidence that dates back centuries and got duffy came to power. he showed to everybody on culture, became illegal to name our children imaging names. he removed our culture from history books, but we preserved our culture and secret young view played an important role in the revolution that toppled longtime leader, mom on the outboard, their advice language. now, after more than a decade, they are able to open celebrate their heritage and culture. although libya has been engulfed in violence and political divisions since 2011 the amazon, you'd say they're happy with their new found freedom. it was supposed to be a refuse, but south korea's brothers home was allegedly the scene of torture, rape, and even murder. one o, one east investigates the crimes and those set to be behind them on al jazeera. so something new. so please a with