Newly commissioned installations urban landscapes across the country, how being turned into vast outdoor Art Galleries sought highlands al jazeera. Thou ha, ah, here these are the headlines this hour, at least 25 people have been killed in a new south striking the southern ukrainian city of the original governess is miss l. A convoy of civilian vehicles in the outskirts of the city. Both russia and ukraine argues each other. The attack or a challenge has more from key. The attack basically happens early this morning on a checkpoint where a convoy of humanitarian civilian vehicles was coming south from the city of separation heading towards and into the occupied parts of that class. This apparition of last, one of the reasons that russia is in the process of annexing right now. And as they were waiting at this checkpoint, this, these lines of, of cars and vans. Several rockets slammed into the area around him begin advanced. So the military has taken control of strategic installations in the capital. One do group that has been heavy gun fired from the main military camp in the city. And a block could be heard me the president ial palace. At least 35 people have been killed after a suicide bomber targeted in Education Center in cobble. It has happened in an area of the capital, where many people from the has are a minority lives. You countries have agreed to impose emergency levies on the windfall. Profits of Energy Companies comes as Energy Ministers from the block main to discuss a potential block wide gas price cap. Hes gathering comes 2 weeks after the commission announced a set of proposals in brazil. The final president ial debate has taken place i had of sundays election 7 candidates vying for the former president louis c o. Lula silva is leading incumbent j both scenarios in opinion polls and you as President Joe Biden has won harrison and could be the deadliest in florida history and has declared a major disaster. It knocked out electricity to more than 2 and a half 1000000 homes and businesses. Local media is reporting at least 13 people have been killed. All right, those are the headlines. Im emily, anglo. The nice continues here on al jazeera after inside story. Stay with us. Ah, europe and russia trade lane for lease on the north street gas pipeline, nato calls it sabotage and his warning of a military response. Moscow denies involvement. So could this signal the end of the biggest gas leak between russia and western europe . This is inside story. Ah po and welcome to the program. Im fully back table. The nord stream, 1. 00 and 2. 00 Gas Pipelines in the baltic sea are in trouble right in the middle of an energy war between russia and europe, sweden, n. Denmark have reported several leaks since the start of the week. Then marks Energy Agency says all the gas left in the pipes should escape into the baltic sea by sunday. No way now europes biggest gas supplier is deploying the military to protect its oil and gas installations. Nato blamed what it called, acts of sabotage, secretary general yen salton barry promised a united and determined to respond to any attack on Energy Infrastructure. The you had the same message with some european Government Spending russia for the damage. Well, all the Information Available so far seems to be indicated that this has been a deliberate act, deliberate, a bunch which was created so clear that any deliberate destruction of u. N. G infrastructure is completely on. So people and it will be mike to was a robust and united response. Now russia says the accusations that it is responsible for the leaks where predictably stupid and absurd. Moscow has demanded a Un Security Council meeting on friday to discuss the damage. The criminal spokesman appeared to lay the blame on the u. S. Movie jim. A see a significant increase in the profits of u. S. Energy companies supplying gas to the european continent. They are very, very interested in getting those bumper profits in the future. Are we interested in this is no, were not with last, the transportation gas roots to europe is europe interested in this, in particular, the locomotive of european economics, germany, or no, it is not al jazeera is that vast and has more now from a vessel in the baltic sea, hundreds of millions cubic meters of gas is now leaking into the baltic sea for days now. And according to experts, there is no technology that can stop it. So basically the authorities, how simply waiting for all the gas to disappear from the fight before it can actually approach the leaks and start the investigation. The Swedish Coast Guard has now confirmed that they are in total for leagues to under sweeter side to under danish shied. Also, both in north 31 and in, in north stream 2 leagues are so big that experts are also having serious doubt that these pipes could ever be used again. Because when gas leaks from the pipes see water goes in and there will be at risk of corrosion, and that will see severely damaged these pipes. So far we have of course, heard accusations from all sides. Russians accusing americans, the americans are europeans accusing russians. But until theres an investigation investigation really happening on the side, we dont know what exactly happened during this damage at the pipes step, fasten for inside story. Alice, take a closer look at the north stream pipelines north stream. One started operating dressed over a decade ago, while nordstrom too, has yet to begin, they make up the biggest gasoline between russia and western europe. Last month, nor stream one stop delivering gas to europe after an energy stand off with russia. Europe accused moscow of playing power politics because of western sanctions over the war in ukraine. But russia blamed a turbine defect, canada, where the repairs are carried out, said it was willing to repair the devices. The turbines were specifically excluded from the sanctions in july. Both pipeline still contain gas under pressure, despite not delivering fuel. On monday, leaks were detected in swedish, and danish waters. Ah, well lets bring in august now in london, leon is becky, a natural gas unless at the Research Consultancy firm energy aspects. In bern, Cornelia Meyer and economists and ceo of my a resource, and in moscow vouchers laugh mishenko, an oil and gas expert. Thank you for being on inside story leon in london. Let me start with you. If we can. The intense speculation of course is swelling, right . Now, as to who is responsible for these apparent attacks on these pipelines, ah, who in your view gains benefit the most from any destruction to these pipelines . Well, as i said, its still very much up in the air on speculation, on what exactly happened and who benefits. But when it comes to the plausibility of russia being behind the, there is an obvious gain when it comes to just creating more uncertainty for energy and gas markets. In particular, we have seen over the last couple of days, gas prices search by essentially 20 percent with an a 2 day move. They have come down slightly to day. But what this creates is just more uncertainty surrounding Europes Energy Security over the course of the winter and markets react to this. So this just puts more pressure on european policymakers over the course of the next months, really, to try and tackle the domestic pressure that arises from the cost of living crisis, driven primarily by the surgeon energy prices, right, versus land in moscow. The timing certainly is a bit suspicious. The pipelines were damage as no way and poland were announcing the opening of the trans baltic pipeline. Moscow is pointing the finger of blame in another direction. Who do you think benefits from this disruption . I think there is a kind of group of farm parties, i would say drupal far countries or whatever economists that should think about the changing the Global Energy map. So thats definitely for russia, its not comfortable to make this actual pipeline sac to exploded. And for russia, it was actually all due is that it was building for has, has been building for sand for several decades. The roots and of course, your money. It was the one number one destination. It was consumed about 40 percent, the fresh natural gas. Its a big, big market actual for us. So the dispute was around actually was to supply on whats the reason, et cetera, or stop these know stream to but definitely for the last one, it was working definitely german, you benefit and European Union benefited from that. So for russia, there was no reason actually to, to make this deal. So i think that was for exactly what, changing the energy map. Ok for changing the energy map. You say, let me bring you into the conversation. Cornelia, weve seen, as leon pointed out, european gas prices. Why is this week this some, what stabilize now . How much uncertainty is this incident with these pipelines causing in the gas markets . It is causing considerable uncertainty, but its a little bit mitigated by the fact that really because ross has stopped delivering gas em. Sewell, nordstrom, on nordstrom to his under sanctions. So theres no gas coming soon, was to him to. But because russia stopped delivering and gas through noise stream one or aid, there is various, you know, and, and most people, most analyst expect that through the winter, this will be, will be, this will be the case. So we have this uncertainty, we half this more the till, etc. But what id really like to say everybody loses on with this one. Also the environment loses because analysts and you know, environmental analysts say about 300000 a metric tons. Our firm of me saying are going to be leaked and, and, and thats, thats not good, thats not good for the environment. So what concerns me most and foremost, i dont know who did it is when we are starting to play games with critical infrastructure. Beard, beard, pipelines, beard, b, it Nuclear Power stations, whoever placed the games, its really a dangerous game. A dangerous game, a dangerous moment, leon could this be, could this have an impact you think on the pipelines, ability to when they reached nordstrom one, for example, when its restart, could it have on it ability and impact on the ability to carry gas will europe this coming winter yeah, well as, as a cornelia already pointed out the factors that not neither nordstrom, one nor nordstrom to has been carrying gas into the European Market, nor to one, not since the beginning of september, and nordstrom to didnt come on line after the suspension of the potential commissioning in february, following the invasion of, of ukraine. So what youre looking at in terms of the market fundamentals in terms of what analysts are looking at. The market did not really expect any of those flaws to resume and in the long term, what youre looking at is, you know, this potentially damaging the pipelines to the extended they can never restart. But most analysts are not doubtful about any kind of large scale resumption or flows from russia into the European Market over the coming years anyways, given the political strains between those 2 blocks. So what youre looking at, you know, more specifically with respect to the gas market and why there has been such an increase in volatility as because its taking the potential for a recert away. We have also seen gas from issuing a statement on the same day as the lease or the day after the lease. We discovered about a potential heart of ukraine in transit. So that was just further tightened. The European Market and the market tries to cope with this by essentially pricing higher to the extent that it incentivizes more industrials to essentially shut down to cut off production than to consequently also to cause a reduction in a demand across the european continent. Over the course of this winter and over the course of the next years night versus lab in moscow, what impact is, is all having on russia, if Energy Exports to europe end, its going to be very costly for russia evening. Yes, exactly. So its, again, thats another one argument, thats russia. I didnt have any reason actually to stop the, even with the current circumstances. Why and there was a dispute on, on potential, whether to resume or not the, the williams actually about the physical ability to send the williams actually to supply European Union was one of the big advantage for russia. Now its gone. So im in the, the to why, why, why is wrong . And i sorry to interrupt you. Why in that case . If you say, if its critical for russia, why did russia stop delivering gas through the north stream one pipeline . So the logic yeah, the logic show this all about sanctions. So it functions and even the turbines that was found to canada for maintenance. There was sanctions and one of the reason actual there. But again, back to the circumstances in impact of the russian economy. So of course i guess from as a natural gas monopole in and g and actually it will be very difficult to go through this you know, next year probably with financial side. But again, i would mention that the gas problem actually can relate to quite big profit dr. From from current month. So its a triple the just comparable to the last year, i think, financially one year on we have quite balanced situation, but then it should be calculate and then assessed. Alright cornelia, you thought, i mean could what impact is this going to have on europe . Energy resilience and do you think that this could mean a permanent closure of this nor string project . What i do think it, it means what, when the expert seemed to say that the engineer seemed to say that its unrealistic to see annoyed stream either was humanoid stream to a resume at the resume mom carrying gas. So. So i think we have to assume that that is the case as them as, as, as some, as, as, as, as our colleague in london has said, and, you know, and there is, there is talk of shutting the, the pipelines through the ukraine. So for, for this winter, this is going to be a tough winter for europe. You see that germany am has actually been able to top up its gas storage to 91 percent. But if we have a highest winter that is not enough and then is going to be bad for the Industrial Base in europe because you look at somebody like b ss and all these, these, these, these chemical companies, they need a lot of gas and them, and if they have to shut in, that means that means about a 100000 people, m a will be furloughed and the sub contractors as well. Also, we will see less investment. And a lot of the investors i talked to who are industrial investors, tell me if europe cannot sort out its energy situation, why would they invest here . Why would they not invest in asia or in america . Right . Or leon, i and i do want to talk about the other options are for europe with you. But obviously theyre trying to develop alternative Energy Supplies now. But can they secure their Energy Infrastructure . Well, for what, what youre looking at fund mentally for europe, right. Is the situation in which the market price is already at such high levels that youre pretty much maximizing supply from every potential source. Already, youre looking at maximum output from algeria, given the price incentive into the italian, edited to spanish market. Youre looking at maximum production from norway and more specifically when it comes to the global picture and to global and g. You are looking at europe pricing so high that youre essentially causing demand reductions and other parts of the globe. So for example, in south asia and bangladesh or india, they are taking less l and g simply because those countries are not able to afford buying more cargoes on the spot market beyond what they have in terms of the long term, long term contractual obligations. So this leaves the European Market in a situation in which the only remaining lever that it can actually clear is through a reduction in domestic demand. And that is exactly what we have seen, where were pricing, you know, above the traditional what is called the balancing mechanism. For the European Market, which is their culture gas, fuel switch in the power sector, were pricing significantly above that to cause those demand reductions from industry and also from the retail sector. And so far that seems to have worked. It was also aided by milder motor temperatures over the course of this year. But we have seen very significant demand reductions in industry across europe, around 16 percent, year to date. And that has helped us to gain the storage level that were on track for now at around 903000000000 cubic meters and storage. But again, it is a very tightly balanced market. And if you are going to see any further outages any further supply outages, that means that price of need to arrive even further to cause more demand reduction. While lets take a look at a rush of options. Now, as europe tries to reduce its reliance on russian oil and gas, moscow has been quoting other markets, the center for research and energy and clean air found that china became the biggest buy of russian fossil fuels within the 1st 100. 00 days of the invasion of ukraine. Indias import jumped 18 percent, although russian gas enforced to the u. F. L by 23 percent. Germany, italy and the netherlands, remain the biggest spice, cornelia, your thoughts about russia and, and the other options it has. We have to really be very careful in dividing between oil and gas. Youre absolutely right. Russia has, we rooted its oil to india and to china. And we will now see more g, c, c, oil coming up to, to europe. But when it comes to guess, you know, there is, there is one gas pipeline to china. There are some very large fields in, in eastern side by area which would, can still go to china. But you know, the infrastructure for pipeline gas from the west and siberian fields, since the 19 seventys really goes westward and you, you cant just good put that through the whole continent. Russia as a huge country. So spanning 11 time zones. You cant just put that through there. There is the potential of like, Companies Like know that take who could do l n g, but there again, what comes in there are the technology sanctions which my time does potential. So for oil, yes, oil is spawn trouble or you find oil. Its bill, find the market gas in many ways, not so much unless its l n g you that you have to have the market and then find the gas for gas is a bit more complicated versus lab. Let me ask you so alternative buyers for russias oil and gas, right . 9 to china and india, as weve mentioned. But it is that enough in terms of the revenue that moscow needs to power aged economy and continue the war. Yeah, actually were not talking about just the financial side. So were talking about, as i mentioned, changing the vantage map. And for russia its not just only going exports, but actually doing gives us occasion so called this occasion on the domestic market. So i would just for that half of russia actually has been bigger, bigger, bigger part the frush a its not gives if i, i mean, there are no pipelines and distribution that works. So that the way the government and the guest from go now. So they trying to get to the new customer is actually on the western. So western side is much more developed than eastern side. So the other one is actually more of who so gas is, has been used as a methane actually. And the engine sounds just increasing the demands on that side. But on the export side, youre absolutely right. The impulse was right that china will become bigger, a bigger, the biggest, didnt actually consumer of russian natural gas because of the pipeline constructions. There are just poll siberia one, and there is agreements with china to build the policy bureau to going through mongolia territory. And the other one actually they still want, i would say its from the 2nd island. So those actual projects will become more, more actual physical and few years period and india and pakistan and other countries. So like focused on flow, which is gold purchase downstream i would say has become a physical just recently announced that pakistan will get russian guess. All right, leon, your thoughts about this . What is the outlook for russia . A lining up replacement buys for its natural Gas Production beyond this winter and can china and india absorb all that capacity . I think my, my fellow panelists have already covered that quite significantly when, when it comes to cornelia and especially also saying that, you know, the majority of that infrastructure when it comes to the giant western sub here in gast, fields, is pointing towards europe. And that is not really diverted, will supply, which means that the reduction that we have seen in terms of the russian exports into the European Market is also reflected in the actual production declines that gas from has been publishing up until now. Those overlap relatively well with the export declined that youve seen it to the European Market. Especially also, if you take into consideration to potential offset when it comes to aggregate production on number from the increase in production and recent siberia, which are connected into the power of severe pipeline into the Chinese Market. Now in the short term, and in the medium term, what youre looking at is, you know, the main, the main source of, of potential supply to the Chinese Market is the power of severe pipeline, which is roughly 38 bcm. So 1000000000 cubic meters a year. There is an agreement to construct power seberio to but that is going to take until at least 20272028. If everything goes all right, in the medium term, what this means is that there is a significant potential for just a dead weight loss of supply into the global balance. Because there is no divert ability between the western sub youre in gas fields and flows into, into the east essentially. So that is behind this, you know, significant tightening off the global gas market and the spikes that we have seen in global gas prices more generally. Ok, a significant tightening of the global gas market. Cornelia and leon talked about production decline then also export declined. Do you think russias base as an Energy Super Power over and not necessarily over as, as we said. And you know, sometimes yes, it may take until 2027 to get the 2nd m pipeline built, but it can also be faster when i see how fast my plans caught built between central asia and china. That was quite fast. You still have oil and russia will still be a player in oil. But what you will see, a said america will be come a lot, large a player and berries, stereo. Some theres a lot of, theres a lot of planned l n g production in america, which is not permitted yet. So if we bring forward to permit thing of that, we can see very quickly, quite term large m m l n g supplies coming on my when i say very quickly, its will still take 5 years but, but, but in terms of building l n t trains and, and getting that going, that is quite quickly. Alright, versus lavin moscow. Ill give you the last word. Where do you see this heading caught, cornelia talked about america becoming a big player very soon. Where would that leave moscow and is ambitious so its all about the, as i mentioned, and i started with my art to a point bird. Its about the change in the and the gym and Global Energy map thats, thats the, the core issue actually. Yes. American williams with alan g will come more to european trans atlantic actually routes. And so europe ian customers will, will buy more and more american gas actually buy resuming bill. Well and g plan circular, their bud, russian williams, we believe will be day war totes to easton and southam saw them mar dust destinations, as i mentioned. And on top of that, as i mention, russia will devour the domestic infrastructure to consume more and more gas williams. So you dont think rush as days ah, as an energy, super power are under threat. Its not about that. Its about just just changing the energy map as i mentioned. So its not all non, nobody killed. Actually. I mean, in terms of a superpower but russia is thinking about just diversifying the, the Energy Industries as it is, but not just about keeping this number one, number 2, position. Thats nobody talking about that. Okay. Well, thank you very much for a very interesting conversation to all 3 of you. Leon is becky, Cornelia Myers and batches laugh mishenko. Thank you very much. And thank you for watching this program. And you can watch it again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. Go to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story. You can of course, all to join the conversation. Twitter handle is that ha insights for me fully like to bring the whole team here in doha. Thanks for watching. Bye for now. Ah ah ah. Ah, al jazeera, with these Turbulent Times up front returns for a new season. 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