Beyond that, what does the war into don . Me to chat and how much of a threat is it to insecurity . This is a social ah hello, welcome to the program. Im m, ron kon, the fighting in sudan between its army and the Power MilitaryRapid Support forces as largely continued despite a ceasefire. So far, the crisis is forced at more than 20000. 00 people to flee to neighboring chad. But the impact of the crisis goes beyond the immediate displacement of sedans. People analysts warn the unrest could pose a serious threat to the stability of neighboring countries and the region as a whole. Well get to, i guess, in a moment. But 1st, this report from the had a lady now to dons neighbors are watching with great concern as to how the conflict is unfolding for regional powers. Its more about minimizing the impact of the crisis. Do you and ones more than 800000 people may flee as saddams, army and paramilitary Rapid Support force as battle each other. Despite a faltering ceasefire, at least a 100000 sudanese are expected to seek refuge in child alone, which already horsed more than half a 1000000 refugees from sedan. Without a quick resolution of this crisis, we will continue to see more people forced to flee in search of safety and basic assistance. And we are then go picking a coordinated Contingency Planning for new arrivals or refugees returning refugees and others, including 3rd Country Nationals to all countries in the region. Saddam borders are staggering. 7 countries, including libya, egypt and chad, a region that seen its share of conflict in recent years. And analysts war and the conflict may attract more weapons and fighters. Sedans, western the full region is closely linked with neighboring chart. Any instability there can quickly spread across the border from charge that means fighters friendly to the head of the arrow surf mohammed hummed, and the gallow known as her matee might come to his aid. Child is a you, as ally, and some say has concerns about the presence of Russias Wagner mercenary group in neighboring Central African republic. And the potential to back tad in rebels threatening its government. The wagner group has been accused of having close ties with the rep it support forces, but the mercenary group denies any involvement in the country. A prolonged fight in sudan could have wider ramifications for the sa hell where a foreign powers, like china and france, have had a presence for years. Sudan stability is important, given its strategic location and has drawn the attention of major powers from both the east and west. But the continued unrest poses a significant threat and could lead to further uncertainty for the region. He had ella, beauty full inside story. Ah, thats bringing i guess now and angelina remarked g r. Ne Senior Researcher covering chad and africas Great Lakes Region for the institute of Security Studies in manama, abilene shape, a sudanese lawyer, analyst, and member of the Arab Association of constitutional law and addis ababa solomon death, a founding director of amani africa, a pan african thinktank that focuses on peace and Security Policy in africa, a warm welcome to you all. Id like to begin with remark g romaji. There are 20000 refugees in chad already from neighboring student. That numbers rising every single day is this threatening the stability of chat . Teen q r i d data law. Firstly, its not about are those the figures switching to stability . Ill study new york. But what doors are huge number for the figures bringing and the sedition is on funding. So it might be that this number may arise again. What its bringing is more to stress on the national, our humanitarian system, but also need the national and you money to we are now edward and his issue many do you when that die is taking care of that. If you see in the country because of a plea or to the conflict in sudan or does, she said was already under stress because our dwarfs program, but the ceo of the main humanitarian organizations probably click on and he kicked it on the fact that they would and so shortage of means, meaning our findings to take care of that efficient that were already in the country. So our d soft, a huge number from saddam in the last weeks might be adding stress on a system that is already deep. Ah, facing a lot of challenges. Lets bring in now me, i believe a shy whos joining us from manama. Ah, where is the Sudanese Government here . Where is the rep is a pull force is when it comes to their relations with chad. To do that, i have good relations which at i think i think it helps the relationship with, with, with chart industry strike with the, with the government. But also you need to look at it from another perspective which is basically there are some of the, some of the trust and im fighting the are. So if theyre coming from child, theres tribal tribes in both borders. Theres family relationships and interracial unmarried relationships between, between the 2. So the, the border has been be the case that people seeing the 4 area that you start for for 20 years, not since the since the war. And therefore, this has witnessed some sort of a stability when b g b agreement has been fine. But again, i mean, people know theyre thinking that you know, they need to flee to, to chat. Maybe it also stuff for central for and for area where the 5 between the, between our house you know, troops there and the Sudanese Army as well. So its historical issue. But again, by they get with your guess that, you know, theyre going to be policing. And people have, you know, seeking different ways to shoot them in general with our, with our child to, to subsidize to egypt through. If you can, lets bring in solomon desa solomon. Theres about 7 countries that neva sued on all of those are facing a refugee crisis. Sought as people try and get out. Is there a way that these countries can come together and try and sort this house as a unified block or other to many divisions within the mall . And what does, and in particular, whats chads role here . Indeed, situations are done is very dire. And if you know many people fear the conflict continues and becomes for the fact that there is a danger to done, would be 5 amended and fragmented. Saddam duck is in conflict, would also inevitably speak over the insecurity into neighboring countries. Its important to recall that the relationship between saddam and char, historically, as with, is one where for example, library books. Well printing from charlotte tower, been successful in launching that come paid again this to me in previous years. And some of them came product to even have to in previous years, is that all, you know, the course well between how can jemina that actually inevitably to the base of the rebel groups in china. Thats turning the page in terms of to dance. Squeezy the really goods ah, and we have to also record what the 5, g, g, and the existence all the groups operating in the north of china as well. And they may be able to take advantage of the situation for their own paris hall. Nobody why julian recommendations for don wouldnt be bearing the doctors. And indeed, if the stability and whatever remaining 5 in the news to continue all in the region in the Central Africa just in the public origin, is going to continue imperative that these countries come together. You know, living differences and you know, the situation so that they would upward the water. So thats good car. Let me bring in, hey bill, how do you got the leak . I guess in that is have a said hes worried about a fragmented, sued on to think thats a realistic feel so far. If you look at what happened in my leave, you know, what happened to syria . What happened . Do you know the country that, you know, had an arbor spring in a way the devolution started peacefully . So we had a resolution issue and i know not a pricing issue. The subject is, are 20 team. Its continue to put 29. 00 team, which resulted in an agreement which is basically up to can sure, a political agreement that divided arbiten civilians and the and the military. So we had some sort of stability for 2 vs before the 2. And now up to over 2021. But again the b, b, b. What is wanting right now is basically you have an equal foster. This is in these armed forces, which is, you know, the support forces which is completely outside the supervision and oversight of the mysteries on forces. But people the have, you know, different speculations about who started this in the, on the 15th of october. But by the end of 30, if this, the people, they still think that this can be contained, we will just something that, you know, the, the, the transition has to continue people. So thing that, you know, you know, its not going to bring any piece of stability for them. But again, the position that has been taking by this is and hes on process and that, you know, theres no negotiations right now with the, with the, with the, with the, with the, with respect, at least not with, with, with me deal with this is deputy, his brother, so the fear is there that you know, fragmented sudan would make it for us for everyone in the region for the one, if africa for the neighboring countries with egypt to, if you are chad. But no one has an interest for this to happen, not the, the big Financial Community launches who invested too much on having a political agreement or collecting from agreement to see, to see the live syllabus for now who is fighting is basically the, our, the, and this is denise and forces. If we find people and civilians have to defend themselves, then the risk is very high that we can go to civil war. But the, now its, its, its remote. But we can see theres a control of whos fighting with controlling these weapons. And then, and then the risk is there, theres no political sufficient for, for these, these 2 to leave her to him for these talks to, but to that back, i think the risk is high and im expected to be in a position where, where, so don, is is another, another, libya or another, another serious or sick, and no one has any just to see that. Let me bring in solomon death. I here and i have a solomon. Chad is a us ally. The u. S. Has a number of ally surrounding sue darnell. Those relationship with sued on itself has been strained later. Shall we say over over many years. Do you think chad has a role a diplomatic political role to play in the resolution of the complex . I think a prices are every neighboring country. I would say also die hard to think, but also a pull the need role to play for the resolution of this, this company by using any inference that they may have on both sides of the conflict. The conflict, parting the Student Armed forces and that are the support forces. But i think its also important to remember that chinese also its going through a transition and not dissimilar to that of. So that is similar to sit down in the sense that in china we have also a military and government that is leading transition post or go. It has not been sanctioned in the way that it was sanctioned by the African Union. But the conditions are similar. And there are 20 station within, within china. So theyre either lead to what china china can do. But all the same within those limits. I think its important to bring in a because if you dont bring in on the neighboring countries, they receive that, then exclusion would leave a vacuum that me easily be ex, exploited, or you know, to undermine the diplomatic effort to bring peace. And i see the fighting in have to, well, let me bring in, let me bring in, remind you now from angela from actually is there a limited role that child can play because of this transition that i guess not as i was talking about. I think that and so we the, the connection. But i, i think, as make what he just said, jed can play alone and let us the call him to fuck that just before d r d suction, the fighting in 9, sudan, ah, child the received a say obsessively to visit our 1st from edward on himself and the day after, from our empty meeting in a way that to, for the village of, and actually fighting in sudan at chad could play a role. I want something in the country and i took the leg on the fact that a chad at the moment is also managing air transition. I with a lot of internal, i want the stations and the position that ease somehow for jail, but also facing a lot of fossil ridge, burns inside. But i definitely, i think a solution to a conflict like the one in sudan actually as absolutely to be at originally said so in that are in that way. Chad, our sound on optic under the move up on the countries or back to the surrounding Student Needs to be implicated in finding solutions. So thats your loud crisis. A bill ha, league, i mean here we are another situation where you have a country that is almost on the brink of civil war. Sudan is fighting with each other. You of the parameters. She forces the rapids full forces. You have the government. Ah, no ones talking about peace right now, but all of the regional countries including chat, are wondering what that means for them. But the 2 power plays in sudan are 2 thing to the world. This is an internal conflict right now. Theyre not interested in talking. So what does the International Community do . What does a country like chad do with 20000. 00 refugees arriving at his border more coming every day. Whats the short term that countries like chad can do . I think its a mom. Let me im in here. I think its a bit, its a bit ah, ah, under allister to suggest that one single trick on, even if it, it might be, like my colleague has said its a, it should be a very limited for them. And then the scope of that toll and the boundaries that it can move on. The margin is, is very slim for, for, for, you already have, you know, the quote you had, you know, saudi had the americans, you have the m r, and then you have the u. K as part of a, if you can use them. And then he had that trailer from mechanism which is basically he got African Union ambia. Im unanimous. So youve, youve had mechanics in place in, in, for, to me that way or another of the failed to contain that, that conflict for so far. But again, theres initiatives, you know, between the saudis and the americans to suggest the cease fire and for that to use fire to be permanent. What they are doing right now is that theyre extending the truth for allowing, you know, im guaranteed secure foods for, for, for allowing you know, how we train it to come to her too. But again, i think its a, its not like a one country that can do anything. It has to be a community and can actually communicate itself to move. I have to the, the, the resources that we have right now and in the can do basically, you know, the mechanics that we have in place and try, which is just a, just, im just, the other thing is, is, is what you mention about the channel. Theres no intended in turn, the intention between be between the hours. If im the process to get into negotiations, i dont think this is entirely correct. We can see that the rest of the are beginning official International Committee to, to find the way for them to negotiate because they dont want to lose what they have achieved so far. Over the past 4 years. The, the fast we are taking a very stubborn position that taking a very there were like them to my job with the, with the thinking. You know, the, the correct right now is basically to resolve this issue. Thats really, im that you know for the r f to have to move outside offer to me with their tubes and the areas that they are controlling. So i, but there is a way to resolve this, but i think it would take it, it would take a high the shape in the form of whatever i gave me that would check. Its not everyone is focusing on a cease fire that you know they, they can make it to a minute that it can make chief efforts for, for him to join in to, to him. So i think this is the focus. No, no, no one is no one seems to be between the 2 parties. Interested in a dark talks like a process, at least for the, for the us. In this process, Political Part is the, are made it clear from the beginning there to see the, the medically that there, i guess give or, and the solution has to be a political solution after the transition to continue the solomon. Once again, we are facing a situation where the International Community is getting involved, like a guest. And manama was talking about the various different mechanisms for talks are coming on. But until its an african solution for african problems, were going to see this again, isnt this an opportunity for the nations surrounding so don to come together and talk to sit on and bring an internal solution. Lets not rely on the u. S anymore. Lets not rely on the u. K. Any more . Surely this is the opportunity when i think it, its one thing to have that kind of ambition or being able to, you know, exercise responsibility or leadership and being the 2 sides to the, you know, to the piece that not that were indeed that is what doctor can union gonna have been trying to do if you recall just a day after the outbreak of this fighting on the 16th of every piece and security concert of the African Union from being an emergency station on the same day, the Inter Governmental Authority on development, the got the regional body, also convened a state extraordinary meeting exactly to take leadership, but also to process on the 2 sites into some meeting to a cessation of hostilities. I think there is so much that they can do in terms of the labor that they have to bear on the 2 sides. So it is important therefore, for these countries, since they can buy themselves or whatever they have is not enough to induce the parties into coming to a cessation of hostilities. What the question therefore, to enlist the support and leverage all others . No, we did that again, but also beyond that thats why the role of countries such as those in the gulf of the way becomes so important. And its important to record that during the transition process. Why the mechanism informing you when the communion and e get was at the front of it for 4 countries making up the ones that were exercising leverage. Now in pushing some of the you know, the p, i remember the Framework Agreement that was done in december for example. But i think there were also lessons that need to be learned. That there is so much focus on trying to gain the 2 sites. Only a potentially being the wider student is public who are opposed to the bloody walk and walk, been a champion off for clarity, but also peace. And the voice of the wider suitors public needs to be harnessed. And there is, there should be a way in planning tossed between these 2 sides to ensure that the student is here, public, if also adequately and effectively presented, including the members of the response committee, who are displayed in an incredible level, all humanitarian activity. A very interesting point. A very interesting point. Solomon. Lets bring in abilene high. Hey, i know youre, youre a lawyer. I remember a few years ago, the sudanese Lawyers Association in caught him was a very powerful organization with a Civil Society voice. Theyre kind of civil side, the voice of solomon desk i was talking about has that voice now disappeared . Where is the sunni Civil Society . Hey, when it comes to this conflict. So this is, this is for frontier. Be the newsletters association. When they came up with the, with the, with the initiative to come up with the constitution so, so to speak. The came up with the constitution was part of the drafting committee, or the experts have been part of part of the fits at some of the stages. But again, they wanted, they wanted to kind of situation to as a process. Im actually going to have a process that constitution because they should never be in the, you know, with our, with a to have a constitution. But we have the constitution in place knowing respected that constitution. Not even doing that transition, not even after the cool. So i think the people, they thought, you know, if you having a constitution constitution could be a political process. So the view is the constitution by this isnt, is my lawyer cessation. And then they pushed that to athletic process. This started, you know, moral shops, different workshops, and you know, areas lead to peace and, and security. But again, when they came to the peace and security, when they came to the issues listening to reintegration of the, our staff within the army. He was the complex, you know, the, the, the, this is unfortunately made it clear from the beginning that you dont need to go to be as soon as possible. We needed to move in 2 years. And then the us, if you wanted that to be within 10 years. So i think i think of the Political Part is now watching that theyre trying to help. But i dont think this is beyond the should be suspended, you contribute. I think the service will say its right now. What they are trying to do is basically make sure people are safe. People are cared for. People are able to go to hospitals and get treatment, which is not the case right now. Most of i think 90 percent of sorry, i dont think we all running out of hearing out as we all running out of time. And i do want to bring in remote g here, romaji. Weve talked a lot about the refugee crisis about the political diplomatic role, chad to complain. But in the very, very short term, the longer this will goes on there is a danger at arthur forces could fall back to the border with chad. And that could create a real instability. And a real problem for some members of the chatty and government, but certainly within that region is this is short term concern for you. For sure, theres this kind of concerned because actually what the valve did, the issue of that conflict, actually the editor from losing ground and capital in getting back to duffle might be, might be something that would change it cycles. Busy in deb soul, but also the edison willing on that site is actually might also have an impact. So initial term, whatever the issue of that conflict, there might be a lot of in factor on doubtful. And then on chat, because there was a very big component or ethnic correct of the forces that actually are fighting within data. And mainly arab tribes gather under emma des coleman. And we also know that in the past, i club room between the different groups and doubtful meaning that as a guide does a co op do myself and the other, some always been very fragile. So any change in the position of the artist actually might have an impact in that for and meaning also in job as a skill of i want to thank all our guests sir romaji. When i say abdul helene shave and solomon differ, and i want to thank you as well for watching. Now you can see the program any time of i visiting our website out there, a dot com. And for further discussion, go to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. And you can also join the conversation on twitter. Our handle is at ha, inside story from me, among con and the entire team here. I for now, ah and a solution is decided destabilizing the democratic process. You will, you will lose it. It will be the last for all the. 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