Uh, injured in those uh, air strikes and artillery shells on those uh military or on those observation points as well as Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu says his government is on the verge of making a peace deal of saudi arabia and speaking of the you in General Assembly netanyahu talked about a potential normalization agreement without any clear indication of an in the occupation to palestinians. Senior i was advised on the official says, if the company in font is in the go to cut about might be given amnesty. Theres been protests in the armenian capital here on against the governments handling of the crisis. Folks onto why about the reintegration of the region and to as a by john after wednesdays c spot, in most cases, ukrainian missiles have targeted the headquarters of its black c fleet and crime in its its in defense system, shut down 5 missiles during the attack and so have a stop all black black smoke was seen blowing from the base you as soon as i bump it in there is, has temporarily step down this chair of the Us Senate Committee on foreign relations. This comes off to he and his wife were accused of accepting bribes to influence Foreign Policy to benefit agents. The Us Attorneys Office in manhattan says he tried to influence Foreign Policy to help the objection government us president ial at bottom has announced the establishment of the 1st day of office on gun violence prevention is being held as a when by guns Safety Advocates for us. President s, couple of harris will oversee the new office. Well, those are the headlines as always a website. Ill just hear a dot com has the latest on the laptop stories counting the cost is coming up next. Just wait for the 19 agent games is out of the fleets from across asia, a gathering in china supplies laid out for 481. 00 gold medals. Special coverage and analysis from 12023. 00. On the other line money, im sorry. This is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the wealth of business and economics. This week have Interest Rates. People may just central bank signal, a pause in the most aggressive, most re tightening policy in decades. Where does not lead the funks against installation . Also this week the philippines is one of the Fastest Growing economies that agent but inflation remains one of his biggest challenges. We hear from the nations extra finance, plus, moving out of a job to celebrate the promotion. We find out why some work is quit, just off to being rewarded for that performance. Pandemic era supply buffle next, the full louse as a when you crane. And of course, an energy crisis. Countries across the world have been hit by multiple crises that have sent the price of soaring food, electricity, even the internet to all become more expensive. Central banks globally rush to increase Interest Rates and then almost synchronize move in order to obtain inflation. Now, often moving 18 months of the most aggressive Monetary Policy, timing and decades gotten this him, the message could be nearing its peak. The u. S. Federal reserve has decided to hold Interest Rates and its latest. You say the bank of england has also paused its right hide. Solve to surprise, slow down and prices. European central bank has also a signal to hold some moments. Re tightening of the hiking rates were rankled high. A full percent. 9 major Central Banks raise rates by combine 3915 basis points in this cycle alone. Japan is an outlaw at the global measure. So how do Interest Rates work and how do they affect people . Hakeem rates makes it more expensive to borrow money, it discourages people from taking out loans. Consumers then have less money to spend, which reduces demand as low as prices. Interest rates affect everything from call loans to housing debt. First time home buyers with a mortgage, for example, could see their Monthly Payments increase if they Rise Companies would that also have to pay more on that investment . Credit demand for workers could decrease. Im salaries, go down almost. Oh, economic sexes are affected by any slow down in consumer spending. It hubs Economic Growth and could to nations into recession. Central banks often aimed to raise rates to tame inflation, bought without hurting their economies. To discuss all this on join now from london by freya, amish. Freya is the chief economist, a global data lombard. Thank you so much for your time frame. I want to start with the us, where and its latest policy move. The fed decided to hold rate study. What are the signals specifically that the fed is looking for at what point will they know . Theyve got inflation on the control . Well, if inflation comes down and stays down for a long period of time, and that will be a kind of a pretty good indicates of a i think that thats unlikely. Um in the, in the car in full cost. So if you, if you have to sort of take issue with some part of the, of the Economic Projections that they put out, theyve got fault how foster braced, and theyve previously expected. Theyve got unemployment a little bit less than they previously expected. And only a top shop from where we are just now. And yet theyve got this continuation of inflation slowing opiate gradually in the short term. I think theres enough full of for policy makers to kind of latch on to with regards to the trajectory of inflation to, to be confident that thats sort of doing the right thing. And to continue with this kind of pausing, um highest, highest along the rest of it. But the, the, um, the sniffing, peddling recently. The problem is that if you go grace economic price continuing, act, or only marginally below trend, then the likelihood is that you see see, underlying inflation rate trends starting to re excel right now. I actually think thats not a story for right now, but that might be something thats nice to kind of rear its head towards it into, into further into, into next year. For now, i think that that kind of reasonably uncomfortable. Okay, and lets, lets turn now to europe. The ac is also signal to pause in raising Interest Rates. Its a different story, isnt it . Between the us and you can expand on that. Yeah, its very different. So what, while the us is still living without legacy of, of kind of excessive stimulus, in hindsight with, with the kind of the wealth that created the wealth in the european case, especially if you take into account the kind of erosion may affect stove inflation is gone so theres no longer any cushion either in the, your area or in the u. K. And that means that the policy policy effect, so im going to feed through a lot more rapidly, particularly in the case of the u. K. Y the, the structure of the Mortgage Market is kind of conducive to um, to uh, the Interest Rate rises feeding through quite rapidly to uh, to the Mortgage Market. Um, so for, for you are one could almost say that theyve, theyve already gone to fall. And i think what were seeing in the inflation data coming through is evidence that the, youre, youre working central bank. And the bank of england were fighting a very different type of inflation that was much more about kind of spillover effects from us than the list. Theres much more about kind of the cost through all the, the effects of the russian invasion of ukraine on, on, on energy prices. And that type of inflation is the type of inflation. The is, is kind of much more likely to sorts itself out than the type of inflation that the fed has been fighting to which the fed actually contributed by its kind of excessive stimulus alongside the, the excess of stimulus, fiscal stimulus in the us. Okay. And briefly freya, this constant touring and throwing will, they wouldnt say, it is this constant and assess and phase never whats gonna happen next of Interest Rates. How does that uncertainty feed down to the amount on the street . Yeah, its, its very difficult. I mean, living in the u. K. Well theres, theres perhaps the most obvious impacts of that on, on mortgage rates. The, the u. K. Fixes Interest Rates in, in maine, but actually in reality, its significant of 2 o 2 years, 3 years, 5 years. So, so much more of the impact of, of higher Interest Rates and in the u. K. Case the, the generations that weve seen in the, in the guilt market feeds through to um, the, the person on the street. We havent really seen much of it being types of that yet. And the bank of england itself still thinks the, the, the, the bulk of the, the, the, the, the damage from tightening of, of Interest Rates has still to fee through. So were still probably to see that in the, in the u. K. Case and it comes through will gradually in other places. Okay. For us, stay with us because i want to come back to you because 1st thing i want to talk a little bit about oil prices, which on now on track to read a 100. 00 a barrel for the 1st time this. Yeah, oil price is of course a critical as we know to price is of goods and services because they impact not only the price of fuel, but also of course transportation and production costs. And they talk the list of inflation risks at 60 percent wage growth is another one, a major contribution to inflation at 20 percent. And if withdrawn is the coupling from global trade has also had an impact on inflation. So back to you for what price is such a headache all night for the central bank is what is your full full full costs for Global Oil Prices and their impact on inflation . Im not convinced that theres a great deal of staying power in the momentum that were seeing with with them, with oil prices at the moment. I think there been a kind of conjunction of factors the host uh, surprised and as a result of that, inventories have gotten quite low if you, that the main one thats kind of on the talked about and, and somewhat surprising is the china is the model for oil, despite the very weak economic backdrop has been relatively, was in and theres a lot of kind of micro reasons for that with regards to what theyre doing them in the petrochemical sector. Im not sure that, that continues. Im also not sure the, the kind of the, the, the, the, the, the, the push from opec further with regards to the supply side is going to be sustainable. The one thats more of a question is, is what happens to russian output . Because the russian economy has been kind of surprisingly strongly that allows them to be a little bit more aggressive with what they do on, on production. But looking at the kind of put them on back for all. And i think oil prices do, eventually were about to that demand that backdrop. Were still expecting across you are a very weak outcome. And continuation of the slow down in, in the mon, the price in the case of, of the us in terms of how the policy makers react to that. I think were going to be much more back to the kind of the old playbook because of them you dont worth responding to a supply side. Show everything in the eyes of the inflation stool. People who are much more worried about those, those uh, oil price shots feeding through into 2nd round effects. If youre an environment where inflation is coming down, the hope would be, and perhaps it has told me that the distance of my pocket, but the hope would be that the im, the central bankers dont react to the as aggressively against that cost to push type of inflation, but is the result of, of, of Oil Price Gains because it destroys demand by itself. And briefly, freya, uh we, one of the biggest concerns when it came to this aggressive Interest Rate, hiking in invite the us europe in elsewhere is recession. Of course, is that still a real possibility or is it a different picture and the rest of the okay, i think is different between the us and the and the u. K, the u. K, as i said, is much more exposed to the rise of Interest Rates in the u. K. The new k position, the, the, the debt servicing cost. As a result of that, it was a rise, and Interest Rates is much, much worse than else. Were about 2. 5 percent of g d p in the us its, its much lower because of how long the fix is on. On mortgage rates. We do start to see credit called delinquencies. Moving off a little bit, even in the u. S. Case, and that could be a little bit of a leading indicator for kind of more stress to come. And we should know also the, the, the credit impulse. So the change in the change in credit which is, is correlated with g p a g p growth is actually coincident, the coordinates of gdp guys and has tons negative recently as a result of the slow down in credit grace as, as the, the, the, the hikes from Interest Rates be true and that kind of the 2nd round effects of the, of the banking, many banking crisis that we saw on here in the year. So gonna see rhetoric to me. We should have continued slow down in the us, but we are in an unfair, unprecedented times with regards to that kind of stock of wealth being so far above trend and be sensitizing the economy to the effect. So of Monetary Policy for right, so very much waste and see really good to talk to you for i have a mess chief thomas of global dates at the ts law. Thank you for your time. Thank you. The in 2022. The philippines recorded its strongest Economic Growth and move in for 2 years. Rising food and rice prices are a big challenge for the president s. High inflation has dented further down mall because juniors Approval Ratings in april. But he remains for peter and mounts his 1st year in office with improving business sentiment. Out there was a summer been debate, spoke to the secretary of finance. Benjamin. Do oak know, he began by asking what is driving the nations growth basis as a result of our investment in the Previous Administration . Well, we were interrupted by the, the coffee crisis. So but, but right now we have, we have fully recovered and we are, we are on a high growth project to be again, before the call gets crisis, we were growing defeat. The business was trying to get around 6 percent on an average scale. But we did not spend so much on, on infrastructure. So that became the, the focus of the Previous Administration, which we are continuing this time with a twist. We are involved being more private sector participation in, in the, in our decide to keep up with our high flying cl neighbors. So you talk about growth and obviously youve got to still very high, but looking at the last quarter. Mm hm. If you look at quarter and quarter notes, it says shrunk. For the 1st time and since 2011, i believe youre still at 4. 2 percent growth. So are you still confident that you know those big targets like 8 percent and more than 7. 5 percent of the chief of the by the end of the year and how are invest is going to see this this year. Our target is 6 to 7 percent, so we still need the lower end of the target 6 percent. All we have to do is grow by 6. 6 percent in the 2nd half of the year. But we are on your question what, why are we so still optimistic that with that we can rely on 6. 5 to 8 percent for the next 5 years its. Its because there are new growth. A s mining was close in the Previous Administration, remaining Industrial Mine and without use this is a fast growing sector. So were open monday. I think the reason well be back up to the fund that we can so, and thats another sector. And as of course, the philippines is not affected too much by the global headwinds, because our growth is basically domestic domestic driven. 3 have a population of 115 a 1000000, mostly young, age and age is 25 and they consume a lot. So there, so were back in that consumption. Lets talk about another sector where present bulk us has a envisage that he will achieve. So sustainability as a by 5, but next 5 years is agriculture. Thats. Thats right. But you do see that, you know, the current prices of price for instances where you have to take corrective measures, the shortages that youve seen for onions triggered etc. How, where is this heading towards and what steps do you think in the next 5 years . Youre going to be taking to make sure that this doesnt happen. Thats, thats a good point. Uh, how, how do we quote your, in the previous a new station was practically not a factor in growth. It was in and out the procession, 0 growth. And so the focus on every culture is very timely. And so the president himself has assumed the, the secretary issue for all of your culture because hes, he feels that thats really very important. So thats another growth sector. Now this chuck increase in price is a combination of non competitive behavior of some bad players in the, in the market. And also because globally, the price of fertilizer has gone up and the price of food in general hasnt gone up as a result of the russian invasion of great. So some analysts believe that the if good targets continue to be met, philippines is going to be a trillion dollar economy in the next decade or so. Are you sure that youre going to be able to achieve it . And if you were to list 4 or 5 areas which are going to help prepare the philippines to that, what would they be . And are they actually realistic . Howard, our part of our plan is to, to make the philippines and upper middle income country by the end of the start. Its hard to talk about what happened software system. And thats, you know, depress that, thats a fix. Dont fix, got 6 years. Its got to do everything he has to do within that period. So well, well keep investing in then essential infrastructure, take care of our people and make sure that they are they, they, we, the malware, young population gets the night to education, to health care, make them productive workforce. And thats all we can do. Ok, we can have problems beyond 19 of 202022. Believe you now where advert culture has become one of the Fastest Growing sectors as its once thriving, Natural Gas Industry is on the decline. Economist save countries. Tar lance of a stablish farming is a major drive as far as future Economic Growth fence and monahan as well. Yeah. Yeah. Cattle ranching is booming and central bolivia. Its part of the major shift to agriculture. The many hope will save the economy because ive been able to some of my every year we are exporting more and more livestock products, like beaten milk. It has grown, fox pulled over the last 15 years. And that is because we have been well positioned to do so. The new emphasis on farming is filling a void left by the decline of natural gas hydrocarbon exports fuel olivias economic miracle at the turn of the century. Then president , even morales used it for social spending, lifted millions out of poverty, but with production now plummeting, alternatives are needed. And as best howard im in the past, libya was a net energy, ex, border gas was its main export product. Nowadays, the entire sector is in decline, and were increasingly importing diesel and gasoline. But the farming boom may come at a cost, as far as in bolivia are being uprooted, faster than nearly anywhere else in the world. Nearly 4000 square kilometers in 2022 alone. Much of it to make room for ranches and so a being farms. Last month, south american nations failed to agree on a common policy on ending deforestation by 2030 bolivia is believed to be one of the holdouts. The amazon rain forest plays a vital role in storing carbon generating rain, full, encompassing the effects of Climate Change lives. Agricultural exports are finding hungry markets in china, and the u. Its relieving worries about the economy and the post pandemic era. Even though the same time creates new concerns on how to manage the environmental pull out. Been demanded for accounting would cost. Conventional wisdom says rewarding employees for that performance increases that motivation and their commitment to the jobs and companies of often use promotions as a tool to retain x and fullness. But if you think that would necessarily prevent workers from designing, thank you again. A new study shows that recognition could actually back fire. Adp was such as that you found 29 percent of workers quit said jobs within a month after that 1st promotion. The payroll provided estimates only 18 percent of employees would have left. Have they not been promoted, but then i realize job histories of more than 1200000 American Work is between 20192022. That is during the global credit of ours pandemic to from preston. In the united kingdom, im joined now by adrian wrights. Adrian is the direct to the institute for such into organizations what unemployment at the university of central lancaster. I thank you so much for your time. Adrian. We surprised by these findings will contrive where, cuz to resign a months off to getting a promotion. Well firstly, id say that these findings were usually surprising. We most know that its a small section to provide them up every day. 4. 5 percent of the way for them included within these findings. But in terms of whats driving work is to to leave off the promotion is many different boxes festival. And it may simply, it can be a case of promotion coming to solve it. See right there where people, if so its about their options and decided to lead alongside things like link building and social media web job options and job charities are coming up all the time. And people are engaging in the platform. It really does have an opportunity to see spencer lee or below impulsively impossible, impulsively for organizations to reflect some. And its how different fans are supposed to be individuals as they approach promotion and get promotion. So for example, is there not a good training . Is that adequate pay at all work is feeling supported and, and these sorts of things may prompt people to lead balances up, if it securely and publish it for that and that personal circumstances. And do you think this also applies to just a certain type of work, a certain level of a hierarchy, they may be within the organization as well . Oh, this is a, is this across the board . Well, i think theres 2 ways announcement not question. I think theres a big and information from organizations like mackenzie saying, repeat what, im ok, so look for different types of work and i think around faulty design and develop nations 1st, the center of the workforce at ok. There are options. And if this has to move, if necessary, but it will save you right, looking at the organizations and the nature of the industries inside those boxes. So the report findings to found that light pace with flows, theres a low paid industries and more prominent in terms of people moving on. And that is the social high scale. So soon, Information Technology nice those and things. So if, if the organization doesnt matter, but again, its, were saying that power organizations supporting people with promotions, to, to provide adequate skills and training to provide. I think thats a good type. And its hobby, surprisingly its a low paid organization, perhaps not getting that quite right. Right. So promotion on it. So, and its just not good enough. Absolutely. Yeah. Think we have to look at the title that was this the organizations have in place. So for example, and while the other benefits organizations put in place alongside promotion as all science products and isnt the best thing for people, often promoters, its the competency in the current job and not necessarily competency. The promotion in the top is its madison and is leaving and so was, and these little weights are concepts and take the satisfaction of the websites and also its not going to the organization. So and organizations need to think about a child strategy, however long as your business strategy. And so make sure that people, when the optimize it assess, will dispose of it in that roles. Or you can just stay with me for a moment because i want to tell the audience a little bit about whats happening with wages, especially 6 percent pay rise was among the main demand spot, auto workers who went on strike in the United States last week. Unions of also cold for a 32 hour work week with no pay cuts and calls for sort of working hours a part of the shift in Workplace Trends off to the global pandemic. Many countries have conducted that full Day Work Week trials last year. The biggest was in the united kingdom. Lets go back to adrian now. So how much do working hours play into overall Job Satisfaction or working hours so basically play significant. I mean theres real Job Satisfaction. We think we can have to look at the real thoughts of and the process of what makes good quality jobs are things like pain benefits constructs work, life balance is really imposing job design and the nature of work, but also things like employee, voice and health. And wellbeing and but Work Life Balance and the, and the time that people spending way because obviously the key usually impulse and im always saying hey, would be introduction of different technologies. And those sorts of things is it is a call that people set to think casually. About how much the way to try and get back to where it life balance and effects the deal for employees, which is with nice and things like that for the day we can be a win win space organizations on the employees. We saw of course, with the pen that make as the power returned to the worker, is that still the case now now a couple of years down the line . Well, i think, and one of the things that is very important is about labeling ability. And i think that an individuals do still have opportunities. We do have quite a strong labor market scale, which means organizations have to be back to that attracts and talents and making sure that retained not solid. And also making sure things are in place within the organization. And that can be conventional the individuals are happy in the workforce in terms of sizing the power of i think that theres always this in this, this situation between whether organizations have more power of the work or whether where it has more power. But i think the company we do speech shift and that shift is continuing, particularly when it comes to strong lead marcus and people have a lot choice and opportunity. Adrian writes direct to the institute for such into organizations. Was that from the University Central link to ship. Thank you. Thank you. Um that is all sorry for this week. Get in touch with us on x full name known as switched out at my names side. They use the hash tag a j, c, c, c. When you do course you can drop the e mail counseling the costa out there at dot net is addressed. And thats multi online or out, is there a dot com slash teaching student that will takes you straight to a page which has individual reports, links and taught episodes for you to catch up on that . Is that 5th edition of counting a cost . Im . My names 5. And the whole team, thanks for joining us. Nice on out as theyre coming up next. The the system to load boat isnt mechanical or even that self driving train to be up or down towards today can be the or the human only robot like me will be everywhere else is here a documentary which to lead on the weird and Wonderful World of robots learned things for you and even trust. I feel like im alive, but i know i am a machine origin of this, which is we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world to what weve been using kind of files that match it to you. The at least 31. 00 protestant in protests is injured off the israel open fire with a demonstration that goes aboard the. This is all just air. Im carry johnston, also coming up. I mean, not to nations, Benjamin Netanyahu toes the well, that is read is on the cost of normalizing ties with saudi arabia. We must not give the palestinians of feature