In politics, as in weather, there can be a sudden change in the prevailing winds. Take the last three weeks before November’s elections, when a narrow but pivotal slice of voters, mostly independents, got cold feet about giving Democrats the big win that had appeared to be almost certain. Perhaps becaus of latent concerns about “democratic socialism” and a slew of progressive priorities that Democrats talked up during the primary season, voters delivered Democrats the unified government they craved, but only by the tiniest of margins.
More often, however, the weather patterns shift gradually, like a change of seasons. A handful of factors develop that can be potentially decisive.