By Yahye S. Bulqaas
Mogadishu (Commentary) — For far too long the 4.5 power-sharing system has retained an explanatory appeal for political analysts preoccupied with making sense of the Somali political turmoil. Unveiled in 2000 at Djibouti-sponsored Somali Reconciliation Confrence, the power-sharing formula divides Somalis into four major clans and an alliance of clans known as
Others.
Since 1960 the presidency has rotated between two clans — Darod and Hawiye. Professor Ahmed Ismail Samatar described this uncodified arrangement as duopoly. This theory works if one pays attention to clan identities of Somalia’s successive presidents. It loses its analytical power if one concentrates on the nature of election outcomes since 2004. Neither the incumbent President of Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed nor his predecessor Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was a favourite candidate in 2017 and 2012 respectively.