University of California - Riverside
Sometimes, the “gate” stops earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range, while ones that pass through the gate grow to magnitude 8 or greater, releasing over 32 times as much energy as a magnitude 7.
“An earthquake gate is like someone directing traffic at a one-lane construction zone. Sometimes you pull up and get a green ‘go’ sign, other times you have a red ‘stop’ sign until conditions change,” said UC Riverside geologist Nicolas Barth.
Researchers learned about this gate while studying New Zealand’s Alpine Fault, which they determined has about a 75 percent chance of producing a damaging earthquake within the next 50 years. The modeling also suggests this next earthquake has an 82 percent chance of rupturing through the gate and being magnitude 8 or greater. These insights are now published in the journal Nature Geoscience.